Johann Bernoulli Colloquium
The Jury, John Morgan, 1861
Room:
Time:
Wednesday, February 2nd, 2011
Stephan Hartmann, Tilburg University
Center for Logic and Philosophy of Science
5161.0267 (Bernoulliborg)
16.15
- Join us for coffee and tea at 15:45
Title:
Voting, Deliberation, and Truth
Date:
Speaker:
Abstract: There are various ways to reach a group decision. One is to simply vote and decide what the majority votes for. This
procedure receives some epistemological support from the Condorcet Jury Theorem. Alternatively, the group members deliberate and
will eventually reach a decision that everybody endorses -- a consensus. While the latter procedure has the advantage that it makes
everybody happy (as everybody endorses the consensus), it has the disadvantage that it is difficult to implement, especially for larger
groups. What is more, a deliberation is easy to bias as those group members who make others change their mind may not necessarily
be the best truth-trackers. But even if no such biases are present, the consensus may be far away from the truth. And so we ask: Is
deliberation a better method than simple majority voting if the group's goal is to track the truth? To address this question, we propose
a Bayesian model of rational deliberation and compare it to the straight forward voting procedure. The talk is based on joint work with
Soroush Rafiee Rad (Tilburg).
Stephan Hartmann is Chair in Epistemology and Philosophy of Science in the Department of Philosophy at Tilburg University and Director of the Tilburg
Center for Logic and Philosophy of Science. He was formerly Professor of Philosophy in the Department of Philosophy, Logic and Scientific Method at
the London School of Economics and Director of LSE's Centre for Philosophy of Natural and Social Science. From 2002-2005, he directed the research
group Philosophy, Probability and Modeling at the University of Konstanz. His primary research and teaching areas are general philosophy of science,
formal epistemology, philosophy of physics, and political philosophy. Hartmann published numerous articles and the book Bayesian Epistemology (with
Luc Bovens) that appeared in 2003 with Oxford University Press. His current research interests include intertheoretic relations, (upper) probabilities in
quantum mechanics, no alternatives arguments, formal social epistemology, and the philosophy and psychology of reasoning.
http://stephanhartmann.org
Colloquium coordinators Mathematics are Prof.dr. A.C.D. van Enter (e-mail : A.C.D.van.Enter@rug.nl) and Dr. M. Dür (e-mail:
M.E.Dur@rug.nl)
Colloquium coordinators Computer Science are Prof.dr. M. Aiello (e-mail: M.Aiello@rug.nl) and Prof.dr. M. Biehl (e-mail:
M.Biehl@rug.nl)