Lecture Presentation Software to accompany Investment Analysis and Portfolio Management Seventh Edition by Frank K. Reilly & Keith C. Brown Chapter 26 Chapter 26 - Evaluation of Portfolio Performance Questions to be answered: • What major requirements do clients expect from their portfolio managers? • What can a portfolio manager do to attain superior performance? • What is the peer group comparison method of evaluating an investor’s performance? Chapter 26 - Evaluation of Portfolio Performance • What is the Treynor portfolio performance measure? • What is the Sharpe portfolio performance measure? • What is the critical difference between the Treynor and Sharpe portfolio performance measures? Chapter 26 - Evaluation of Portfolio Performance • What is the Jensen portfolio performance measure, and how does it relate to the Treynor measure? • What is the information ratio and how is it related to the other performance measures? • When evaluating a sample of portfolios, how do you determine how well diversified they are? Chapter 26 - Evaluation of Portfolio Performance • What is the bias found regarding the composite performance measures? • What is the Fama portfolio performance measure and what information does it provide beyond other measures? • What is attribution analysis and how can it be used to distinguish between a portfolio manager’s market timing and security selection skills? Chapter 26 - Evaluation of Portfolio Performance • What is the Roll “benchmark error” problem, and what are the two factors that are affected when computing portfolio performance measures? • What is the impact of global investing on the benchmark error problem? • What are customized benchmarks? • What are the important characteristics that any benchmark should possess? Chapter 26 - Evaluation of Portfolio Performance • How do bond portfolio performance measures differ from equity portfolio performance measures? • In the Wagner and Tito bond portfolio performance measure, what is the measure of risk used? • What are the components of the Dietz, Fogler, and Hardy bond portfolio performance measure? Chapter 26 - Evaluation of Portfolio Performance • What are the sources of return in the Fong, Pearson, and Vasicek bond portfolio performance measure? • What are the time-weighted and dollarweighted returns and which should be reported under AIMR’s Performance Presentation Standards? What is Required of a Portfolio Manager? 1.The ability to derive above-average returns for a given risk class Superior risk-adjusted returns can be derived from either – superior timing or – superior security selection 2. The ability to diversify the portfolio completely to eliminate unsystematic risk. relative to the portfolio’s benchmark Composite Portfolio Performance Measures • Portfolio evaluation before 1960 – rate of return within risk classes • Peer group comparisons – no explicit adjustment for risk – difficult to form comparable peer group • Treynor portfolio performance measure – market risk – individual security risk – introduced characteristic line Treynor Portfolio Performance Measure • Treynor recognized two components of risk – Risk from general market fluctuations – Risk from unique fluctuations in the securities in the portfolio • His measure of risk-adjusted performance focuses on the portfolio’s undiversifiable risk: market or systematic risk Treynor Portfolio Performance Measure R T i RFR i • The numerator is the risk premium • The denominator is a measure of risk • The expression is the risk premium return per unit of risk • Risk averse investors prefer to maximize this value • This assumes a completely diversified portfolio leaving systematic risk as the relevant risk Treynor Portfolio Performance Measure • Comparing a portfolio’s T value to a similar measure for the market portfolio indicates whether the portfolio would plot above the SML • Calculate the T value for the aggregate market as follows: Tm R m RFR m Treynor Portfolio Performance Measure • Comparison to see whether actual return of portfolio G was above or below expectations can be made using: ER G RFR i R m RFR Sharpe Portfolio Performance Measure • Risk premium earned per unit of risk Si R i RFR i Treynor versus Sharpe Measure • Sharpe uses standard deviation of returns as the measure of risk • Treynor measure uses beta (systematic risk) • Sharpe therefore evaluates the portfolio manager on the basis of both rate of return performance and diversification • The methods agree on rankings of completely diversified portfolios • Produce relative not absolute rankings of performance Jensen Portfolio Performance Measure • Also based on CAPM • Expected return on any security or portfolio is ER j RFR j ER m RFR Jensen Portfolio Performance Measure • Also based on CAPM • Expected return on any security or portfolio is ER j RFR j ER m RFR Where: E(Rj) = the expected return on security RFR = the one-period risk-free interest rate j= the systematic risk for security or portfolio j E(Rm) = the expected return on the market portfolio of risky assets The Information Ratio Performance Measure • Appraisal ratio • measures average return in excess of benchmark portfolio divided by the standard deviation of this excess return IR j R j Rb ER ER j ER j U Application of Portfolio Performance Measures EPit Div it Cap.Dist .it BPit Rit BPit Potential Bias of One-Parameter Measures • positive relationship between the composite performance measures and the risk involved • alpha can be biased downward for those portfolios designed to limit downside risk Components of Investment Performance • Fama suggested overall performance, which is its return in excess of the risk-free rate Portfolio Risk + Selectivity • Further, if there is a difference between the risk level specified by the investor and the actual risk level adopted by the portfolio manager, this can be further refined Investor’s Risk + Manager’s Risk + Selectivity Components of Investment Performance • The selectivity measure is used to assess the manager’s investment prowess • The relationship between expected return and risk for the portfolio is: Em Rˆ RFR Cov R̂ j , R̂ m E Rˆ RFR Rm Rm Components of Investment Performance • The market line then becomes a benchmark for the manager’s performance Rm RFR Rx RFR x Rm Selectivit y Ra Rx a Components of Investment Performance • The selectivity component can be broken into two parts – gross selectivity is made up of net selectivity plus diversification Selectivit y Diversific ation Ra R x a Net Selectivit y R x Ra R x a Components of Investment Performance • Assuming the investor has a target level of risk for the portfolio equal to T, the portion of overall performance due to risk can be assessed as follows: Manager' s Risk Investor' s Risk Rx a RFR Rx a Rx T Rx T RFR Risk Relationship Among Performance Measures • Treynor • Sharpe • Jensen • Information Ratio • Fama net selectivity measures Highly correlated, but not perfectly so Performance Attribution Analysis W R • Allocation effect i Wai W pi R pi R p • Selection effect i ai ai R pi Measuring Market Timing Skills • Tactical asset allocation (TAA) • Attribution analysis is inappropriate – indexes make selection effect not relevant – multiple changes to asset class weightings during an investment period • Regression-based measurement Measuring Market Timing Skills R pt RFRt max Rst RFRt , Rbt RFRt ,0 R pt RFRt b Rbt RFRt s Rst RFR max Rst RFRt , Rbt RFRt ,0 U t Factors That Affect Use of Performance Measures • Market portfolio difficult to approximate • Benchmark error – – – – can effect slope of SML can effect calculation of Beta greater concern with global investing problem is one of measurement • Sharpe measure not as dependent on market portfolio