Ocean Conditions in the northern
California Current
Jay Peterson
CIMRS1
Bill Peterson
NOAA/NWFSC
Hatfield Marine Science Center, Newport, OR 97365
1Cooperative
Institute of Marine Resources Studies
Salmon
• commercially and culturally very important in
the Pacific Northwest (NE Pacific).
• Closely managed, limited resource
• Interest in what factors influence salmon
success (e.g. dams, habitat)
The ocean phase of the
salmon life cycle was/is a bit
of a mystery in terms of
where they go once they
leave the estuary.
Species may spend 1 – 5
years at sea
2
14 year time-series shows
juvenile salmon occupy
the shelf.
Variability between stocks.
Bonneville Power Administration
3
Pacific Ocean
Circulation
Oceanography 101
L
H
4
Circulation in the
Northeast Pacific
Subarctic Current brings cold
water and plankton to the N.
California Current.
The N. Pacific West Wind Drift
brings subtropical water and
plankton to the N. California
Current
Therefore, ecosystem structure
is affected by the source waters
which feed the California Current.
5
We study the ocean phase of salmon life history and develop
management advice based on a suite of indicators
Physical/Hydrographic
65 N
Alaska
60
PDO
British
Columbia
55
50
45
Local Conditions
Upwelling & SST
Spring Transition
Coastal currents
170 W 160
150
140
U.S.A.
40
35
30
ENSO
130
120
25
110
6
Basin and local scale forces influence biological process
important for salmon
Physical/Hydrographic
Local Biological Conditions
65 N
Alaska
60
PDO
British
Columbia
55
50
45
Local Conditions
Upwelling & SST
Spring Transition
Coastal currents
170 W 160
150
140
U.S.A.
40
35
30
ENSO
130
120
25
110
Our work is an example of
an ecosystem approach to
management
7
Data Sources
SHELF SAMPLING - Newport
• Historical Hydrographic and plankton data
at Newport Hydrographic Line (NH) –
1960s and 1970s, 1983, 1990-1992
• NH Line 1996-present (18 years!!)
– Every 2 weeks
SHELF SAMPLING – Newport north to tip of
Washington State
• Historical sampling of salmon and pelagic
fish (1979, 1981-1985)
• BPA-hydrography, plankton, pelagic fish
and juv. salmon (1998-present)
• PaCOOS-CCLME Cruises (2004 – present)
BLUE WATER SAMPLING – Newport south to
northern California
• GLOBEC –LTOP and Mesoscale
hydrography and plankton 1998-2003
• PaCOOS-CCLME (partially funded by
SAIP) 2004-present; sampling LTOP grid
NEWPORT
8
Sampling the environment
Conductivity-Temperature-Depth
(CTD) profiler used to sample the
water column for hydrographic
information.
temperature
salinity
chlorophyll fluorescence
dissolved oxygen
water clarity
9
Sampling the food web
Phytoplankton
0.02 mm mesh
Diatoms
Dinoflagellates
HABs
10
Sampling the food web
Copepods
½ m diameter
0.2 mm mesh
net towed
vertically from
100 m
Lipids, Omega-3
fatty acids
11
Sampling the food web
Krill
0.7 m dia.
333 um
mesh
Bongo net
towed
obliquely
12
Sampling the food web
• Salmon (juv)
• pelagic rope
trawl, Nordic 264
• 30 x 20 x 100 m
• 8mm mesh liner
13
http://www.nwfsc.noaa.gov
14
http://www.nwfsc.noaa.gov/research/hottopics/salmon_forecasts.cfm
15
http://www.nwfsc.noaa.gov/oceanconditions
16
Broad array of indicators
spanning a range of
spatial scales and
processes.
•physical, biological
Indicators related to
ocean conditions for
salmon in the NCC.
Also relevant to other
stocks.
http://jisao.washington.edu/pdo/
Positive
Negative
Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)
Two phases:
Positive (warm)
Negative (cold)
http://jisao.washington.edu/pdo/
Seasonal upwelling in the NCC
Using the CUI (Bakun 1973)
20
Winds and current structure
off coastal Oregon:
• Winter:
OR
45°N
Newport
Winds from the south
Water moving northwards
Downwelling
44°N
•Spring Transition in April/May
• Summer:
Strong winds from the North
Equatorward alongshore transport
Coastal upwelling
Transport of nutrients to surface waters
OR
45°N
Newport
44°N
•Fall Transition in October
21
Seasonal upwelling in the NCC
Using the CUI (Bakun 1973)
• Date of Transition
• Length of season
• Magnitude
22
Seasonal upwelling in the NCC
Using the CUI (Bakun 1973)
Logerwell et al. 2003 Fish. Ocean. 23
23
Plankton = drifters
phytoplankton (plants)
-diatoms, dinoflagellates
zooplankton (animals)
-copepods, krill
Boreal
Sub-tropical
Importance of the food source:
Zooplankton assemblage is dependent on
source waters.
Boreal (northern) zooplankton may
ultimately be a better food source for
salmon (high in lipids).
Sub-tropical zooplankton are lower in
lipids
24
5.0
Coho
R2 = 0.48; p = 0.008
OPIH Coho Survival (%)
4.5
4.0
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
Boreal
1.0
-4
Importance of the food source:
Zooplankton assemblage is dependent on
source waters.
Boreal (northern) zooplankton may
ultimately be a better food source for
salmon (high in lipids).
-2
Sub-tropical
0
2
4
6
Copepod Species Richness Anomaly
May-September Average
Sub-tropical zooplankton are lower in
lipids
25
Original data available on the website
Different levels of simplification used to help with interpretation
Ecosystem Indicators
PDO (Sum Dec-March)
PDO (Sum May-September)
ONI Jan-June (Average)
1998
5.07
-0.37
1.20
1999
-1.75
-5.13
-0.98
2000
-4.17
-3.58
-0.98
2001
1.86
-4.22
-0.32
2002
-1.73
-0.26
0.35
2003
7.45
3.42
0.45
2004
1.85
2.96
0.32
2005
2.44
3.48
0.47
2006
1.94
0.28
-0.25
2007
-0.17
0.91
0.17
2008
-3.06
-7.63
-0.95
2009
-5.41
-1.11
-0.22
2010
2.17
-3.53
0.88
2011
-3.65
-6.45
-0.70
2012
-5.07
-7.79
-0.42
13.66
12.27
10.38
8.58
33.51
13.00
10.31
10.13
7.51
33.87
12.54
10.12
10.19
7.64
33.83
12.56
10.22
9.77
7.50
33.87
12.30
10.08
8.98
7.38
33.86
12.92
10.70
9.62
7.75
33.70
14.59
10.85
11.39
7.88
33.66
13.56
10.60
10.73
7.91
33.79
12.77
10.61
9.97
7.92
33.82
13.87
10.04
9.99
7.55
33.88
12.39
9.33
9.30
7.46
33.87
13.02
10.19
9.90
7.70
33.73
12.92
11.01
10.14
7.67
33.71
13.06
10.02
10.05
7.57
33.80
13.26
9.62
9.95
7.58
33.74
4.75
-0.60
log mg C m-3
0.62
day of year
209
log mg C 1000 m-3 0.12
fish per km
0.26
fish per km
0.11
-2.99
0.07
-0.30
134
0.90
1.27
1.12
-3.67
0.17
-0.28
102
1.80
1.04
1.27
-1.24
0.13
-0.29
93
1.25
0.44
0.47
-1.51
0.26
-0.30
120
1.05
0.85
0.98
1.51
-0.10
0.09
156
0.53
0.63
0.29
0.91 3.88 2.61 -0.89 -1.10 -0.99 2.86 -2.47 -1.65
0.03 -0.80 0.07 0.11 0.29 0.11 0.23 0.40 0.38
0.22 0.55 0.10 -0.10 -0.30 -0.21 0.24 -0.14 -0.23
132 230 150
81
64
83
135
82
125
0.58 0.83 0.59 0.60 1.84 0.89 1.65 0.61 0.99
0.42 0.13 0.69 0.86 2.56 0.97 0.89 0.46 1.32
0.07 0.03 0.16 0.15 0.27 0.01 0.03 0.30 0.13
units
46050 SST (May-Sept)
NH 05 Upper 20 m T winter prior (Nov-Mar)
NH 05 Upper 20 m T (May-Sept)
NH 05 Deep Temperature
NH 05 Deep Salinity
deg C
Copepod Richness Anomaly (May-Sept)
N. Copepod Biomass Anomaly (May-Sept)
S. Copepod Biomass Anomaly (May-Sept)
Biological Transition
Winter Ichthyoplankton
Chinook Juv Catches (June)
Coho Juv Catches (Sept)
no. of species
deg C
deg C
deg C
log mg C m-3
Ecosystem Indicators not included in the mean of ranks or statistical analyses
Physical Spring Trans UI Based
day of year
83
88
134 120
84
109 113 142 109
70
87
82
95
105 123
Upwelling Anomaly (April-May)
-14
19
-36
2
-12
-34
-27
-55
-14
9
0
-5
-35
-36
-35
Length of Upwelling Season (UI Based)
days
191 205 151 173 218 168 177 129 195 201 179 201 161 153 161
NH 05 SST (May-Sept)
deg C
11.39 11.09 11.06 11.03 10.12 10.78 13.23 12.11 11.26 11.90 10.78 12.14 11.32 11.15 11.73
Copepod Community structure
x-axis ordination 0.81 -0.82 -0.78 -0.76 -0.90 -0.11 -0.13 0.65 0.00 -0.63 -0.95 -0.78 -0.18 -0.63 -0.79
NOTE: The 46050 SST for 2011 is an estimate due to a lack of buoy data from January to July.
26
Color coded
based on
potential ‘benefit’
Good, Bad.
Numbers are
simple ranks.
Ecosystem Indicators
PDO (December-March)
PDO (May-September)
ONI Jan-June
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
14
6
3
10
7
15
9
13
11
8
5
1
12
4
2
9
4
6
5
10
14
13
15
11
12
2
8
7
3
1
15
1
1
6
11
12
10
13
7
9
3
8
14
4
5
46050 SST (May-Sept)
NH 05 Upper 20 m T winter prior (Nov-Mar)
NH 05 Upper 20 m T (May-Sept)
NH 05 Deep Temperature
NH 05 Deep Salinity
13
15
13
15
15
8
9
10
4
3
3
6
12
8
6
4
8
4
3
2
1
5
1
1
5
7
12
3
11
13
15
13
15
12
14
12
10
14
13
9
5
11
7
14
7
14
4
8
5
1
2
1
2
2
4
9
7
5
10
11
6
14
11
9
12
10
3
9
6
8
11
2
6
7
10
Copepod Richness Anomaly
N. Copepod Biomass Anomaly
S. Copepod Biomass Anomaly
Biological Transition
Winter Ichthyoplankton
Chinook Juv Catches (June)
Coho Juv Catches (Sept)
15
14
15
14
15
14
11
2
10
3
10
7
3
2
1
6
5
6
2
4
1
6
7
4
5
4
12
4
5
4
2
7
5
8
3
11
13
10
13
14
10
6
10
12
12
9
13
13
12
14
15
14
15
9
15
14
12
11
11
12
12
9
8
9
9
9
2
11
7
9
7
3
1
1
1
1
7
8
8
7
4
8
5
15
13
5
13
11
3
6
13
3
1
8
3
10
11
5
4
2
6
8
6
2
10
Mean of Ranks
RANK of the Mean Rank
Principle Component Scores (PC1)
Principle Component Scores (PC2)
13.8 5.5 4.7 5.6 5.0 10.9 12.1 13.0 9.9 7.8 2.8 7.6 9.9 5.9 5.5
15
4
2
6
3
12
13
14
10
9
1
8
11
7
4
6.56 -2.22 -2.95 -1.60 -2.12 2.08 3.12 4.21 1.10 -0.30 -4.39 -0.91 1.13 -1.76 -1.96
-0.51 0.04 -0.24 -0.76 -1.96 -1.53 2.55 -0.43 -0.66 1.07 -0.50 0.96 -0.74 1.36 1.35
Ecosystem Indicators not included in the mean of ranks or statistical analyses
Physical Spring Trans (UI Based)
3
6
14
12
4
Upwelling Anomaly (Apr-May)
7
1
13
3
6
Length of Upwelling Season (UI Based)
6
2
14
9
1
NH 05 SST (May-Sept)
10
6
5
4
1
Copepod Community Structure
15
3
5
7
2
9
10
10
3
12
11
9
8
15
11
15
15
15
13
14
9
7
5
8
13
1
2
3
12
8
5
4
7
2
1
2
5
3
14
6
7
11
11
9
10
8
13
13
7
9
27
13
11
11
11
4
Quantitative assessment
Initially used a simple mean-rank
to forecast salmon returns.
Surprisingly good results,
considering all variable were
‘weighted’ equally.
28
Quantitative assessment
Improvements
Use of multivariate techniques.
Brian Burke (NWFSC)
Jennifer Fisher (OSU/CIMRS)
Principal Component Analysis (PCA)
Maximum Covariance Analysis (MCA)
‘weight’ the variables
account for co-variance
29
Forecasts
Predicted returns are a close match to
actual for Chinook and coho.
30
Brian Burke
Forecasts
Returns (x1000)
Predicted returns are a close match to
actual for Chinook and coho, especially
compared to management predictions.
Outmigration year
31
Brian Burke
Why were Spring Chinook returns
so low?
Spring Chinook migrate
to the Gulf of Alaska.
Although ocean
conditions off
Oregon/Washington
were favorable in 2011,
Alaska waters may not
have been.
32
How did Alaska salmon do?
Coho salmon that entered
the ocean in 2011 were
caught in historically low
numbers.
Chinook returns not
available.
33
ADF&G commercial salmon harvest
Yearling Chinook
Estuary
Low numbers of Chinook
juveniles caught in the CR
estuary purse-seine project.
High Columbia River flow rates
in 2011 when smolts typically
are in the estuary.
CR flow at Beaver A.T.
Early ocean entry?
Predation?
terns and cormorants
In-river or hatchery factors?
Data from Laurie Weitkamp (NOAA)
34
2013 Outlook
Very little winter
downwelling.
Average start to
upwelling.
Above average amount
of upwelling, though
the season may have
ended early.
35
2013 Outlook
Sea surface temperatures at
the NOAA buoy 20 miles off
Oregon (46050).
Overall, relatively cool during
active upwelling (July), but
some prolonged relaxation
events occurred.
SST Anomaly (deg C)
6
2013
4
2
0
-2
-4
Jan
Feb Mar
Apr May Jun
Jul
Aug Sep Oct
Nov Dec
36
2013 Outlook
12.0
98
T-S NH 05 (50 m)
Jan-Mar
11.5
Bottom temperature and salinity
Temperature
11.0
03
10.5
10
05
04
10.0
00
9.5
99
11
12
09
9.0
01
02
06
13
08
8.5
Cool, salty water on the shelf
throughout the first half of the year.
07
8.0
32.4
32.6
32.8
33.0
33.2
Salinity
10.0
T-S at NH-05 (50 m)
April-June
Temperature (°C)
9.5
9.0
98
03
05
06
97
8.5
10
11
8.0
12
04
7.5
7.0
33.0
33.2
33.4
00
01
07
99 02
13 08
09
33.6
Salinity
33.8
37
2013 Outlook
Above average upwelling
Cool water temperatures
Neutral winter PDO
Negative spring/summer PDO
Neutral ENSO
PDO (colors) and
ONI (line) Indices
4
3
2
1
0
-1
-2
-3
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09 10
11
12
13
38
2013 Outlook
Above average upwelling
Cool water temperatures
Neutral winter PDO
Negative spring/summer PDO
Neutral ENSO
PDO (colors) and
ONI (line) Indices
4
3
2
1
0
-1
-2
-3
96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08
09 10 11 12
13
39
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov
2013 Outlook – Looking good!!
Northern Copepod biomass
Highest biomass of ‘northern’ (lipid rich) copepods in the time
series over the last 3 years
Above average upwelling (+)
Cool water temperatures (+)
Neutral winter PDO (+/-)
Negative PDO (+)
Neutral ENSO (+/-)
High winter ichthyoplankton (+)
High N. Copepod abundance (+)
1.5
Northern Copepod Anomaly
1.0
0.5
0.0
-0.5
-1.0
-1.5
97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
40
Hypoxia
7
NH 05 - 52m
NH 10 - 72m
6
Oxygen (ml L-1)
– Seasonal
– Occurs during
the upwelling
period.
– Most severe in
AugustSeptember
5
4
3
2
1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10 11 12
Month
41
Hypoxia
July 2008, PaCOOS
48
47.5
WA
47
– Can cover >65% of the shelf
– Bottom 10-30m of the water column
46.5
46
45.5
45
Newport
44.5
6
5
44
4
3
43.5
2
43
1
0
42.5
ml/L oxygen
upper 200m
42
Jul
Aug
Sep
CA
-125
-124
-123
42
Distribution of hypoxia 2006 - 2011
48
WA
46
44
OR
42
Hypoxia
Most severe, and covered the greatest
area (>60%) of the shelf in 2002, 20062007
Least severe years were 2003, 2009-10.
Unfortunately, there will not be any Sept.
data for 2013 due to ship problems.
Potentially early Fall transition (last
weekend?) likely means little would have
been detected during the September
survey.
44
Hypoxia
Intriguing relationship between the
amount of oxygen in upwelled
water and
NPGO
PDO
…..though time scales are a bit
short (one oscillation) for a robust
comparison.
4
3
2
NPGO
1
0
-1
-2
-3
-4
1970
1980
1990
Year
2000
2010
Peterson et al. 2013 L&O
45
•
•
Hypoxia relates to ocean acidification as well.
Deep waters low in O2 and high in CO2 (respiration, isolated from
atmosphere).
•
We are working with Dr. Richard Feely (NOAA) to share resources
(ship time) and coordinate efforts to investigate how low pH and
aragonite saturation impacts zooplankton….especially pteropods
and krill.
Seattle Times
•
Unfortunately, we are also losing resources ($ and people) and
trying to find ways to keep the 18-year time series going.
46
Acknowledgements
W.T. Peterson Group:
Current: Tracy Shaw, Jennifer Fisher, Cheryl Morgan
Recent layoffs: Leah Feinberg, Jesse Lamb, Jennifer Menkel
Former : Julie Keister, Jaime Gomez-Gutierrez, Anders
Roestad, Mitch Vance, Marley Jarvis, Kate Ruck, Angie
Sremba, Hongsheng Bi, Hui Liu
U.S. GLOBEC – NEP (http://globec.coas.oregonstate.edu)
Bonneville Power Administration
47
Discussion
48
Recent issues of concern
49
borrowed from Laurie Weitkamp