The Direction of Progress? old refrains topical chimes new riffs… STEPS SLRG DiscGo security diversity SEG MCM CGG MDET reflexivity presentation to Freeman Centre Seminar, SPRU, University of Sussex 22nd March 2013 Andy Stirling Progress without Choice “you can’t stop progress” … - The Economist “we'll restore science to its rightful place”… PROGRESS - President Obama “Our hope … relies on scientific and technological progress” - Premier Wen Jiabao “One can not impede scientific progress.” - President Ahmadinejad all innovation is progress… TECHNOLOGY Lisbon Strategy for: “pro-innovation action” - EU Council of Ministers “we need more pro-innovation policies” - PM Gordon Brown “… the Government’s strategy is … pro-innovation” - PM David Cameron SCIENCE The One-Track, Hard-Wired Innovation Race PROGRESS TECHNOLOGY Lord Alec Broers, President, RAEng …“history is a race to advance technology” Technology: “will determine the future of the human race’” The challenge of government: “to strive to stay in the race”… The role of the public: “to give technology the status it deserves”… The One-Track, Hard-Wired Innovation Race PROGRESS TECHNOLOGY Treats innovation as homogeneous: no distinctions … no alternatives… no politics … no choice ! The One-Track, Hard-Wired Innovation Race PROGRESS TECHNOLOGY Treats innovation as homogeneous: no distinctions … no alternatives … no politics … no choice ! Scope for debate restricted to: yes or no? how fast? … how much? … who leads? The One-Track, Hard-Wired Innovation Race PROGRESS TECHNOLOGY Treats innovation as homogeneous: no distinctions … no alternatives … no politics … no choice ! Scope for debate restricted to: yes or no? how fast?’ Seriously neglects questions over: which way? says who? … how much? … who leads? …what alternatives? …why? Diverse Directions for Innovation “low carbon energy” Not all that is scientifically realistic, technically practicable, economically feasible, socially viable, will be historically realisable Diverse Directions for Innovation Intended and unintended processes and power ‘close down’ pathways social studies: shaping (Bijker, 85) expectations (Brown, 03) co-construction (Misa, 03) imaginations (Jasanoff, 05) Diverse Directions for Innovation Intended and unintended processes and power ‘close down’ pathways history: contingency (Mokyr, 92) path-dependence (David, 85) momentum (Hughes 83) path creation (Karnoe, 01) Diverse Directions for Innovation Intended and unintended processes and power ‘close down’ pathways philosophy: /politics autonomy (Winner, 77) entrapment (Walker, 01) closure (Feenberg, 91) alignment (Geels, 02) Diverse Directions for Innovation Intended and unintended processes and power ‘close down’ pathways economics: homeostasis (Sahal, 85) regimes (Nelson & Winter, 77) lock-in (Arthur, 89) trajectories (Dosi, 82) Diverse Directions for Innovation Intended and unintended processes and power ‘close down’ pathways performance Politics reduced to risk: from ends: strategic choices between visions Diverse Directions for Innovation Intended and unintended processes and power ‘close down’ pathways performance risk Politics reduced to risk: from ends: strategic choices between visions to means: detailed regulation of modalities Diverse Directions for Innovation Intended and unintended processes and power ‘close down’ pathways Sir David King, former UK Chief Scientist “We have no alternative to nuclear power … Nuclear because: “We need to do everything… Politics reduced to risk: “We need to keep the from ends: strategic choices visions nuclearbetween option open” to means: detailed regulation of modalities Diverse Directions for Innovation Huge insight from innovation studies: multiple pathways in each sector… …energy…health…land…food…security…materials…ICT…transport… Dosi Fagerberg Lundvall Verspagen Yet ( !) evolutionary and innovation economics tends to emphasise linearity: - advance (Nelson) - diffusion (Rogers) - early movers (Teece) - first moving (Lieberman) (Santangelo) - latecomers (Tellis) Politics reduced to risk: - catching from up ends: strategic choices between visions - forging ahead (Abramowicz) - leapfrogging - falling behind (Aho) to means:(Brezis) detailed regulation of modalities Diverse Directions for Innovation Huge insight from innovation studies: multiple pathways in each sector… …energy…health…land…food…security…materials…ICT…transport… Dosi Fagerberg Lundvall Verspagen Yet ( !) evolutionary and innovation economics tends to emphasise linearity: - advance (Nelson) - diffusion (Rogers) - early movers (Teece) - first moving (Lieberman) (Santangelo) - latecomers (Tellis) Politics reduced to risk: - catching from up ends: strategic choices between visions - forging ahead (Abramowicz) - leapfrogging - falling behind (Aho) to means:(Brezis) detailed regulation of modalities The Low-Carbon Transition? Knowledge is Political STEPS under-determined realities Knowledge: the reality of ‘framing’ stylised representation ‘scope’ ‘focus’ ‘system’ ‘effect’ ‘cause’ STEPS under-determined realities Knowledge: the reality of ‘framing’ subjective framing picture of the world ‘scope’ environment ‘focus’ ‘system’ ‘effect’ local people ‘cause’ STEPS under-determined realities Knowledge: the challenge of plurality plural frames diverse pictures ‘scope’ environment ‘focus’ ‘system’ ‘effect’ ‘cause’ local people STEPS under-determined realities Knowledge: the challenge of plurality plural frames diverse pictures ‘scope’ ‘focus’ ‘system’ ‘effect’ ‘cause’ local people STEPS under-determined realities Knowledges and Pathways plural frames diverse pictures environment ‘scope’ ‘system’ ‘focus’ ‘pathway’ ‘cause’ ‘effect’ local people time STEPS under-determined realities Knowledges and Pathways CONTEXTS discourses STEPS interacting processes agencies and structures social and material subjects and objects! practices imaginations values ‘system’ ‘pathway’ institutions intentions physical world interests technologies ecologies power relations expectations a self-reinforcing trajectory of change time reflection over robustness, quality, error ‘Reflexivity’ is not about ‘Anything Goes’ CONCEPTUAL SPACE OF ALL CANDIDATE POSSIBILITIES FOR WHAT IS NORMATIVELY OR EPISTEMICALLY ‘RIGHT’ KEY normatively and/or epistemically right normatively and/or epistemically wrong reflexivity over subjectivity, contingency, contextuality ‘Reflexivity’ is not about ‘Anything Goes’ reflection over robustness, quality, error mainstream fallibilism “one thing is approximately right” conditional plurality reflexivity: ‘right’ answers & solutions “contrasting things are equally right… vary by framings of is questions problems xxxx…but much else just plain&wrong!” caricature relativism naïve realism normatively and/or epistemically right normatively and/or epistemically wrong “one thing is precisely right” “all things are equally right” reflexivity over subjectivity, contingency, contextuality Challenges for Research and Appraisal STEPS How more reflexively to inform policy and wider innovation governance? closing down narrow INPUTS expert / analytic (things that are into (aspects taken taken intowithin account) account practice of research Pro or appraisal) problems, options, pros / cons, participatory / issues,deliberative blems, options, pros uncertainties, /perspectives cons, issues, uncertainties, broad perspectives opening up OUTPUTS (aspects that are conveyed outwards into wider discourse) ’Plural conditional’ conclusions… … if X then A … if Y then B … Challenges for Research and Appraisal STEPS How more reflexively to inform policy and wider innovation governance? closing down opening up narrow expert / analytic decision analysis participatory / deliberative broad Challenges for Research and Appraisal STEPS How more reflexively to inform policy and wider innovation governance? closing down opening up narrow expert / analytic citizen’s juries participatory / deliberative broad Challenges for Research and Appraisal STEPS How more reflexively to inform policy and wider innovation governance? closing down narrow expert / analytic opening up cost-benefit analysis risk assessment stakeholder negotiation multi-site ethnographicmethods open hearings structured interviews sensitivity analysis dissenting opinions citizen’s juries interactive modelling participatory / deliberative consensus conference broad narrative-based participant observation q-method decision analysis extended foresight multi-criteria participatory mapping rural appraisal deliberative mapping open scientometric space mapping Power Closes Down Research and Appraisal STEPS Institutions privilege blinkered scope, marginal analysis, incumbent interests … evidence-basing, liability, insurance, agency remits, fiduciary responsibility closing down narrow expert / analytic opening up multi-site open cost-benefit ethnographichearings analysis methods risk assessment structured assessmen dissenting interviews t stakeholder sensitivity opinions negotiation analysis citizen’s juries interactive modelling participatory / deliberative consensus conference broad narrative-based participant observation q-method decision analysis extended foresight multi-criteria participatory mapping rural appraisal deliberative mapping open scientometric space mapping Power Closes Down Research and Appraisal STEPS A responsibility for neutrality means independent innovation research and policy appraisal should deliberately counter pressures for closure closing down narrow expert / analytic opening up cost-benefit analysis risk assessmen t stakeholder negotiation multi-site ethnographicmethods open hearings structured interviews sensitivity analysis dissenting opinions citizen’s juries interactive modelling participatory / deliberative consensus conference broad narrative-based participant observation q-method decision analysis extended foresight multi-criteria participatory mapping rural appraisal deliberative mapping open scientometric space mapping Deliberating Pathways farm strategies in Highland Kenya Opening up diverse perspectives on alternative innovation pathways METHODS REPERTOIRE to help appreciate alternative pathways SCOPING breadth of contexts STEPS FOCUSING LINKING depth of particularities relations and perspectives ‘Positive’ style Precautionary appraisal Resilience analysis Post-normal science Monitoring / surveillance Interdisciplinary challenge Uncertain hazard analysis Transdisciplinary oversight Natural experiment Plural conditional advice Interpretive style Critical literature review Influence mapping Alternatives assessment Millstone critical realism Social network analysis In-depth case study Discourse analysis Semantic structures Top-bottom comparison Semi-structured IVs Empathetic role play In-depth, open IVs participant observation MCM interviews Iterative Q method Cross-frame interrogation Interactive style Group Deliberative style Open space approaches Ethnographic immersion Participatory soft systems Targeted focus groups Participatory appraisal Iterative questionnaire Iterative group MCM Deliberative dissensus Bring power to powerless Quantitative style Open network analysis Critical systematic review Agent-based modelling Repertory grids Interactive models / GIS Deliberative polling Sensitivity analysis Interval analysis Diversity mapping Imaginaries analysis Visioning / backcasting Cross-scenario exploring Temporal dimensions Historiographic research Futures literatures Extended foresight Accountability process Critical web access Participatory design Dissonance exploration Reflexive dimensions Do-it-yourself panels Power tools Co-operative research From Knowledge to Action STEPS; SLRG How can innovation governance best respond to dynamics of closure? Politics reduced to risk: from ends: strategic choices between visions to means: detailed regulation of modalities Heuristics: towards key parameters? Possible useful input from resilience theory? disruptive “pace of termination” gradual STEPS; SLRG Heuristics: towards key parameters? STEPS; SLRG Possible useful input from resilience theory? explicit, deliberate, dedicated governance measures control (frequently referred) disruptive “pace of termination” gradual response (never mentioned) Heuristics: towards key parameters? STEPS; SLRG Possible useful input from resilience theory? control (tractable drivers) shock (transitory disruption) temporality of change stress (enduring disturbance) style of action respond (intractable conditions) Heuristics: towards key parameters? continuity level driver of change Possible useful input from resilience theory? control (tractable drivers) style of action (intractable conditions) shock (transitory disruption) temporality of change stress (enduring disturbance) respond - supply bottlenecks - price spikes - engineering failure - skills gap - oligopolistic action Heuristics: towards key parameters? continuity level driver of change Possible useful input from resilience theory? control (tractable drivers) shock (transitory disruption) temporality of change stress (enduring disturbance) STABILITY style of action respond (intractable conditions) - mandate supply chains - regulate prices - public procurement - niche protection - infrastructure redundancy - targeted anti-trust law - create training capacity - labour market intervention Heuristics: towards key parameters? continuity level driver of change Possible useful input from resilience theory? control (tractable drivers) style of action respond (intractable conditions) shock (transitory disruption) temporality of change stress (enduring disturbance) - market trends - institutional resistance - resource depletion - labour shortage - regulatory pressures - political opposition - environmental change - geopolitical shifts Heuristics: towards key parameters? continuity level driver of change Possible useful input from resilience theory? control (tractable drivers) style of action respond (intractable conditions) shock (transitory disruption) temporality of change - market structuring - resource substitutions - transition management - climate change mitigation - global power projection stress (enduring disturbance) DURABILITY Heuristics: towards key parameters? continuity level driver of change Possible useful input from resilience theory? control (tractable drivers) shock (transitory disruption) temporality of change stress (enduring disturbance) style of action respond (intractable conditions) Heuristics: towards key parameters? continuity level driver of change Possible useful input from resilience theory? style of action control (tractable drivers) shock (transitory disruption) temporality of change stress (enduring disturbance) respond (intractable conditions) RESILIENCE - agile supply chains - price elasticity - supple infrastructures - strategic flexibility - conflict resolution Heuristics: towards key parameters? continuity level driver of change Possible useful input from resilience theory? control (tractable drivers) shock (transitory disruption) temporality of change stress (enduring disturbance) style of action respond (intractable conditions) Heuristics: towards key parameters? continuity level driver of change Possible useful input from resilience theory? style of action control (tractable drivers) respond (intractable conditions) shock (transitory disruption) temporality of change stress (enduring disturbance) - foresighted institutions - responsive demand - climate adaptation - supple infrastructures - diverse dependencies - reflexive governance ROBUSTNESS Heuristics: towards key parameters? STEPS; SLRG Possible useful input from resilience theory? control style of action (tractable drivers) shock (transitory disruption) STABILITY respond (intractable conditions) RESILIENCE temporality of change stress (enduring disturbance) DURABILITY ROBUSTNESS Modes of Continuity? STEPS; SLRG Possible useful input from resilience theory? control style of action (tractable drivers) shock (transitory disruption) temporality of change stress (enduring disturbance) respond (intractable conditions) STABILITY RESILIENCE CONTINUITY DURABILITY ROBUSTNESS Seeing like a State: dynamics of power Incumbent infrastructure interests favour stability-based strategies (after JESS / BERR 2006-8) stability “co-ordination” “reliable infrastructures” incremental innovation” “maintain asset reliability” “enforce operational margins” “promote efficient markets” “allow effective price signals” “support social / political stability” “take preventive action” “sustain pressure on other states” “foster domestic self-reliance” “undertake planning (eg: SYS)” “forecasting” “persistent infrastructures” “directed innovation”“create market incentives” “establish futures markets” “develop new sources / carriers“ “extend asset lifetimes” “deepen engagement with producers” “substitute obsolete options” “transition management” durability resilience “vigilance” “supple infrasatructures” “agile innovation” “operational stocks / storage / reserves” “demand-side response capacity” “multi- input/fuel refining/generation” “enhance network connectivity” “foresight” “adaptive infrastructures” “systemic innovation” robustness Repertoires for Innovation Governance Different actions promote contrasting dynamics stability durability resilience robustness Repertoires for Innovation Governance To sustain a particular trajectory – policy attention prioritises… stability co-ordination forecasting durability resilience vigilance foresight robustness Repertoires for Innovation Governance To sustain and secure a particular trajectory – infrastructures prioritise… stability co-ordination reliability persistence resilience vigilance flexibility forecasting adaptability foresight durability robustness Repertoires for Innovation Governance To sustain and secure particular trajectory – research policies focus on… stability resilience co-ordination vigilance reliability flexibility incremental innovation directed innovation agile innovation systemic innovation persistence adaptability forecasting foresight durability robustness ‘Multivalent’ Strategies Some institutional practices promote multiple dynamic properties stability resilience co-ordination reliability incremental innovation vigilance flexibility agile innovation plural diversities directed innovation persistence forecasting durability systemic innovation adaptability foresight robustness From Continuity to Discontinuity DiscGo Why such imbalance on Schumpeter’s creation / destruction dialectic? shock stability resilience plural diversities robustness stress durability continuity discontinuity control response From Continuity to Discontinuity DiscGo Why such imbalance on Schumpeter’s creation / destruction dialectic? shock stability resilience transduction controlling actions destabilise regime in targeted ways stress durability eg: UK government and coal power in 1980s; UK nuclear and renewables inrobustness 2010s continuity discontinuity control response From Continuity to Discontinuity DiscGo Why such imbalance on Schumpeter’s creation / destruction dialectic? shock stability resilience transduction stress durability controlling actions effect trend towards specific intended end robustness eg: Netherlands Energie Transitie to low carbon in 2000s continuity transition discontinuity control response From Continuity to Discontinuity DiscGo Why such imbalance on Schumpeter’s creation / destruction dialectic? shock stability resilience transduction transilience responsive actions exploit contingent shock to disrupt regime eg: Greenpeace et al move to campaign against nuclear power after robustness Chernobyl, 1986 stress durability continuity transition discontinuity control response From Continuity to Discontinuity DiscGo Why such imbalance on Schumpeter’s creation / destruction dialectic? shock stability resilience transduction responsive actions harness contingent stress to help catalyse more open transformation robustness stress durability eg: grassroots civil society mobilisation on climate change ‘peak oil’, 2000s continuity transition discontinuity transilience control transformation response From Continuity to Discontinuity DiscGo Why such imbalance on Schumpeter’s creation / destruction dialectic? shock stability resilience transduction transilience plural diversities robustness stress durability continuity transition discontinuity control transformation response From Continuity to Discontinuity DiscGo Why such imbalance on Schumpeter’s creation / destruction dialectic? stability resilience transduction transilience robustness durability transition transformation Again: about framing – the imprint of power in innovation knowledge… From Continuity to Discontinuity stability DiscGo SLRG resilience transduction transilience plural diversities CIVIL SOCIETY political pressure robustness durability transition Balance requires emphasis… transformation Smith et al Focusing on Diversity SEG Dancing with the quantification devil… what isn’t counted, doesn’t count! general diversity heuristic ij (dij) α .(pi.pj) β Focusing on Diversity SEG Dancing with the quantification devil… what isn’t counted, doesn’t count! general diversity heuristic ij (dij) α .(pi.pj) β Yoshizawa, Suzuki, et al Focusing on Diversity MDET Scientometrics of disciplinarity & directionality in research & innovation Rafols, Porter and Leydesdorff (2010) Dynamics of Diversity… beyond ‘lock-in’ From ‘hedging portfolios’ to ‘innovation jamming’ Aoki Page Arthur Saviotti Llerena Metcalfe Kaufmann Rosenberg Dynamics of Diversity… beyond ‘lock-in’ From ‘hedging portfolios’ to ‘innovation jamming’ Aoki Page Arthur Saviotti Llerena Metcalfe Kaufmann Key properties? Alternity Rosenberg individual substitutability …ignorance Dynamics of Diversity… beyond ‘lock-in’ From ‘hedging portfolios’ to ‘innovation jamming’ Aoki Page Arthur Saviotti Llerena Metcalfe Kaufmann Key properties? Alternity individual substitutability Complementarity quality of contextual fit Rosenberg …ignorance …sensitivity Dynamics of Diversity… beyond ‘lock-in’ From ‘hedging portfolios’ to ‘innovation jamming’ Aoki Page Arthur Saviotti Llerena Metcalfe Kaufmann Key properties? Alternity individual substitutability Complementarity quality of contextual fit Coherence collective functionality Rosenberg …ignorance …sensitivity …purpose Dynamics of Diversity… beyond ‘lock-in’ From ‘hedging portfolios’ to ‘innovation jamming’ Aoki Page Arthur Saviotti Llerena Metcalfe Kaufmann Key properties? Alternity Complementarity Coherence Synergy Rosenberg individual substitutability quality of contextual fit collective functionality mutual generative potential …ignorance …sensitivity …purpose …innovation Dynamics of Diversity… beyond ‘lock-in’ From ‘hedging portfolios’ to ‘innovation jamming’ Aoki Page Arthur Saviotti Llerena Metcalfe Kaufmann Key properties? Alternity Complementarity Coherence Synergy Conviviality Rosenberg individual substitutability …ignorance quality of contextual fit …sensitivity collective functionality …purpose mutual generative potential …innovation addressing different subjectivities…politics Researching Directions…? Dimensions? Explicitly highlight normativities… ‘vector spaces’? Researching Directions…? Dimensions? Explicitly highlight normativities… ‘vector spaces’? Determinants? What forces and interactions shape and orient advance? Researching Directions…? Dimensions? Disparate, explicitly normative, ‘vector spaces’? Determinants? What forces and interactions shape and orient advance? Agency? How to articulate deliberate, distributed social intent? Researching Directions…? Dimensions? Disparate, explicitly normative, ‘vector spaces’? Determinants? What forces and interactions shape and orient advance? Agency? How to articulate deliberate, distributed social intent? Power? Explore (and speak of) forms and gradients of power ! Researching Directions…? Dimensions? Disparate, explicitly normative, ‘vector spaces’? Determinants? What forces and interactions shape and orient advance? Agency? How to articulate deliberate, distributed social intent? Power? Explore (and speak of) forms and gradients of power ! Drivers? Inclusion on inputs: priority interests and knowledges? Researching Directions…? Dimensions? Disparate, explicitly normative, ‘vector spaces’? Determinants? What forces and interactions shape and orient advance? Agency? How to articulate deliberate, distributed social intent? Power? Explore (and speak of) forms and gradients of power ! Drivers? Inclusion on inputs: priority interests and knowledges? Control? Balance fallacy of control rhetoric: realities of response? Researching Directions…? Dimensions? Disparate, explicitly normative, ‘vector spaces’? Determinants? What forces and interactions shape and orient advance? Agency? How to articulate deliberate, distributed social intent? Power? Explore (and speak of) forms and gradients of power ! Drivers? Inclusion on inputs: priority interests and knowledges? Control? Balance fallacy of control rhetoric: realities of response? Conflict? Roles for contestation, dissent, scepticism, civil society? Researching Directions…? Dimensions? Disparate, explicitly normative, ‘vector spaces’? Determinants? What forces and interactions shape and orient advance? Agency? How to articulate deliberate, distributed social intent? Power? Explore (and speak of) forms and gradients of power ! Drivers? Inclusion on inputs: priority interests and knowledges? Control? Balance fallacy of control rhetoric: realities of response? Conflict? Roles for contestation, dissent, scepticism, civil society? (Dis)continuity? Governance for disruption, destabilisation, “sunsetting”? Researching Directions…? Dimensions? Disparate, explicitly normative, ‘vector spaces’? Determinants? What forces and interactions shape and orient advance? Agency? How to articulate deliberate, distributed social intent? Power? Explore (and speak of) forms and gradients of power ! Drivers? Inclusion on inputs: priority interests and knowledges? Control? Balance fallacy of control rhetoric: realities of response? Conflict? Roles for contestation, dissent, scepticism, civil society? (Dis)continuity? Governance for disruption, destabilisation, “sunsetting”? Pluralities? ‘Systems’, perspectives, interests, contexts, pathways? From ‘Systems’ to ‘Cultures’…? Dimensions? Disparate, explicitly normative, ‘vector spaces’? Determinants? What forces and interactions shape and orient advance? Agency? How to articulate deliberate, distributed social intent? Power? Explore (and speak of) forms and gradients of power ! Drivers? Inclusion on inputs: priority interests and knowledges? Control? Balance fallacy of control rhetoric: realities of response? Conflict? Roles for contestation, dissent, scepticism, civil society? (Dis)continuity? Governance for disruption, destabilisation, “sunsetting”? Pluralities? ‘Systems’, perspectives, interests, contexts, pathways? Politics? Innovation democracies: enlightenment to enablement?