Analyzing Trends in
Science & Technology Innovation
Ben Shneiderman, Ping Wang, Yan Qu & Cody Dunne
ben@cs.umd.edu, {pwang, yanqu, cdunne}@umd.edu
University of Maryland
College Park, MD 20742
The STICK Project
•
NSF SciSIP Program
- Science of Science & Innovation Policy
• Goal: Scientific approach to science policy
•
The STICK Project
- Science & Technology Innovation Concept Knowledge-base
• Goal: Monitoring, Understanding, and Advancing
the (R)Evolution of Science & Technology Innovations
http://terpconnect.umd.edu/~pwang/STICK/
The STICK Project
•
•
Long-term objectives
• Database of IT, biotech & nanotech innovations
• Visual analytic tools for monitoring & sensemaking
• Theories of innovation trajectories
Near-term objectives
• Ontology for innovations & people
• Search & cleaning tools
• Case studies
• Cloud computing
• Tree visualizations: treemaps, cone trees & hyperbolic trees
Early Work: Fashions in IT Innovations
180
160
ERP
CRM
Data Warehouse
Number of articles about IT innovations
140
KM
120
100
BPR
80
60
ASP
40
Groupware
20
0
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
Business Process Reengineering (BPR)
Knowledge Management (KM)
Groupware
Application Service Provider (ASP)
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP)
Data Warehouse
Customer Relationship Management (CRM)
Number of Articles about IT or IT-enabled Innovations Indexed in ProQuest ABI/Inform® Database
Innovation Trajectories: Web Services
4000
3000
3500
Sales
2500
Number of Publications
2000
Publications
2500
2000
1500
1500
1000
1000
R&D Investment
500
500
0
0
1997
1998
1999
2000
Web Services Publications
2001
2002
2003
Web Services R&D Investment
2004
2005
2006
2007
Web Serivces Application Sales
Sources: LexisNexis for publications; Gartner for R&D investment; IDC for Application Sales
Investment/Sales (in millions of $)
3000
STICK: Ontology Design
STICK: Ontology Design: Time
Time
Case Study: Cloud computing
Case Study: Tree Visualizations
Problem: Traditional 2D node-link diagrams become too large
Solutions:
Treemaps:
Nested Rectangles
Cone Trees:
3D Interactive Animations
Hyperbolic Trees: Focus + Context
Measures:
Papers, articles, patents, citations,…
Press releases, blog posts, tweets,…
Users, downloads, sales,…
Treemap: Nested Rectangles
(Shneiderman, ACM Trans. on Graphics, 1992;
Johnson & Shneiderman, IEEE 1991)
www.cs.umd.edu/hcil/treemap/
Smartmoney.com MarketMap:
Steep fall Feb 27, 2007, with one exception
smartmoney.com/marketmap
Treemap: Newsmap (Marcos Weskamp)
newsmap.jp
Treemap: Supply Chain
www.hivegroup.com
Treemap: Spotfire Bond Portfolio Analysis
www.spotfire.com
Treemap: NY Times – Car&Truck Sales
www.cs.umd.edu/hcil/treemap/
Cone tree: 3D Interactive Animations
Interactive 3D animated user interfaces
(Robertson, Card & Mackinlay, ACM CHI 1991 & CACM 1993)
Hyperbolic Trees: Focus & Context
(Lamping & Rao, ACM UIST1994 & CHI 1995)
Patents
Academic
Papers
Trade Press
Articles
Case Study: Tree Visualization Impact
TM=Treemaps
CT=Cone Trees
HT=Hyperbolic Trees
Patents
Academic
Papers
Case Study: Tree Visualization Citations
TM=Treemaps
CT=Cone Trees
HT=Hyperbolic Trees
Take Away Messages
•
•
Studying innovation trends will be accelerated by
• Appropriate ontologies
• Better search & data cleaning tools
• Causal theories
Multiple measures & determinants of success
 Guidance to innovators, policy analysts,
venture capitalists & research managers
Thanks to: National Science Foundation grant SBE-0915645
and Grad student Puneet Sharma
terpconnect.umd.edu/~pwang/STICK/
STICK Framework
SciSIP
community
Innovation Communities
(Scientists; Engineers; Policy Makers
Vendors; Journalists; Prospective Adopters,
etc.)
3
STICK
Analytic and Visualization Tools
Network of innovation, network of innovation
communities, trends, relationships over spatial and
temporal dimensions
2
Innovation Knowledgebase
1
Innovation concepts and material; persons and organizations in
the innovation community; Relationships; Descriptions
Multiple Data Sources
Academic
Publications
PopIT;
Google
Scholar
Trade
Publications
PopIT;
Ebsco
Corporate
Communications
PopIT;
Factiva
Grassroots
PopIT;
Wikipedia;
Google Groups;
Slashdot
http://terpconnect.umd.edu/~pwang/STICK/
Government
Support
Patents
STAR
STAR