Todor Tagarev
PAP-DIB Training Course
Tbilisi, Georgia, 26-28 April 2005

• Associate Professor and Chair, Defence and
Force Management Department, “Rakovski”
Defence and Staff College, Sofia
• Program Director, Centre for National Security and Defence Research, Bulgarian Academy of
Sciences
• Managing Editor, Information & Security: An
International Journal , http://infosec.procon.bg
• E-mail:
– tagarev@gmail.com
– infosec@procon.bg

• Capabilities-based planning
– Capability model (D-O-T-M-L-P-F-I)
– Assessing affordability
– Balancing needs and resource constraints – risk perceptions
• Program-based force development
• Leadership and managerial challenges to the effective democratic control

Objectives of the national security policy
Strategies for contribution of the armed forces
Missions of the armed forces, 1...m
Tasks of the armed forces, 1...t
Allied and other external requirements
Capabilities, 1...c
Force mix, 1...f
Structure
Manning
Training
Weapons&
Equipment
Stockpiles
C4ISR
Infrastructure
Doctrine
Readiness
Costing the force structure
Assessing planning risk
No
Yes
Affordable force structure &
Acceptable planning risks

1. Organization/structure; authorized personnel strength; Characteristics of the weapon systems
2. Level of manning
3. Condition of the weapon systems and the equipment
4. Stocks (POL, spares, etc.)
5. Training level
6.
С2
7. Leadership
8. Morale

100
80
60
40
20
0
Capability

Type of spending
Personnel, incl. food, etc.
Qualification of personnel
Maintenance (electricity, water, heating, communications, etc)
Maintenance of facilities (barracks,
HQ, training, etc.)
Maintenance of WS and equipment
Combat training (individual, unit)
(Long-term) investments
3 mln Euro
2 160
-
120
220
500
-
-

Type of spending
Personnel, incl. food, etc.
Qualification of personnel
Maintenance (electricity, water, heating, communications, etc)
Maintenance of facilities (barracks,
HQ, training, etc.)
Maintenance of WS and equipment
Combat training (individual, unit)
(Long-term) investments
5 mln Euro
2 160
200
120
200
220
500
1600

Type of spending
Personnel, incl. food, etc.
Qualification of personnel
5 M Euro
4 320 100%
--
Maintenance (electricity, water, heating, communications, etc)
Maintenance of facilities (barracks,
HQ, training, etc.)
210
--
Maintenance of WS and equipment 170
Combat training (individual, unit)
(Long-term) investments
300
--
0%
87%
0%
38%
30%
0%

• Doctrine, weapon systems’ characteristics, level of interoperability
• Support for a particular policy
• Balancing requirements and resources
(affordability)

• Planning for results
• Categories of expenditures
– Personnel
– Sustainment
– Combat training
– Investments
– R&D

• Definition of planning risk
• Example
• Portfolio of capabilities

• Definition of required operational capabilities
• Program-based resource management -> goal –oriented resource planning, review and accounting
• Technology insertion in support of a security and defence (and economic and
R&D) policy
• Efficient process; Complete cycle

Needs
Defense and other policies;
Guidance
Defense needs, e.g. ROC
Acquisition proposals
Filter
Programming
Affordable plans Implementation
Force development plans,
Readiness
Budget
Acquisition plans
Recruitment plans
Education; Personnel development plans
... ...

• Program-based force development =
• Program-based defense resource management
• Programming:
– Relates results to spending
– Relates long-term plans to budget

• Comprehensive
• No duplication
• Good costing
• Generation and assessment of alternatives
• Straightforward translation into budgets
• Basis for accountability
• On the programming structure

• Todor Tagarev, "Bulgaria: Integrated Defence
Resource Management," in Security-Sector
Reform and Transparency Building. Needs and
Options for Ukraine and Moldova , Harmonie
Papers 17 (Groningen, The Netherlands: Centre for European Security Studies, 2004), pp. 39-47.
• ---, “A Means of Comparing Military Budgeting
Processes in South East Europe,” Information &
Security 11 (2003): 95-135,
<http://cms.isn.ch/public/docs/doc_556_259_en.
pdf>.

• Efficient, coherent managerial processes
• Performance measurement
• No boundaries or demarcation lines
• Educated and dedicated people
• Political will
• Patrick Mileham, “Civilized Warriors?
Professional Disciplines, Ethos, and European
Armed Forces,” Connections: The Quarterly
Journal 3,1 (2004): 75-94, Available at www.pfpconsortium.org