Arrangements and procedures to
assess security risks and national
defence requirements
COL Dr Catalin-Marius Tarnacop
NATO Studies Centre
Agenda
• Underlying Principles
• Underlying Process
• Management of the process
What is Defence Policy?
Defence Policy “ involves the political direction of
a nation’s defence resources as a whole with a
view to ensuring national security, protecting vital
interests and furthering the international aims of
the state”
…the hand-maiden of a
nation’s Foreign Policy
Why?
• Major Change
– Internal
– External
• Differing objectives
– Appropriate (Roles, Size, Shape, Capabilities,
Equipment, Professionalism)
– Accountable (mechanisms, openness,
transparency)
– Affordable (Public Expenditure, Efficiency)
Why?
“The aim of the National Defence Strategy
is to make Armed Forces and their
supporting structures modern, professional,
accountable and efficient. They also have to
be affordable within a medium term
economic framework.”
National Defence Strategy or
Security Sector Review ?
Defenc
e
Issues
National Defence Strategy or
Security Sector Review ?
Security Sector
Issues
Defenc
e
Issues
National Defence Strategy or
Security Sector Review ?
State Security Issues
Security Sector
Issues
Defence
Issues
National Defence Strategy or
Security Sector Review ?
• National Defence Strategy should start from
Foreign Policy goals, but it is only a Defence
Review
• The Security Sector Review is much broader
– more holistic approach for SSR, to include all
security sector actors
– SSR addresses defence as just one element
Advantages of SSR vs NDS
• Establish optimum resources for Defence vs rest
of public sector
• Identify best/alternative means of addressing
threats
• Identify non-military tasks that require military
response
Security Sector Reform Process
Develop Context
Descriptions
Identify security
threats
B 2
C
Develop
Security Policy
3
D
A 1
4
Develop Defence
Policy
5
6
Develop Missions
& Tasks
Develop
Capabilities &
Force options
E
Develop Law
& Order Policy
…
F
Develop Legal
Framework
…
G
Develop Foreign
policy
…
H
Amend social
policies
…
Agreement of
options
7
Develop associated
Policies, etc
8
Publication
9
National security and defence hierarchy
NATIONAL SECURITY
LEVEL
THE NATIONAL SECURITY STRATEGY
1
[GOVERNMENT PROGRAM (DEFENCE)]
MILITARY STRATEGIC LEVEL
2
- THE NATIONAL DEFENSE STRATEGY -
STRATEGIES, PROGRAMS AND DEPARTAMENTAL
PLANS
3
THE NATIONAL MILITARY STRATEGY
GUIDELINES OR STRATEGIC PLANNING
DIRECTIVES, SPECIFIC TO THE
INSTITUTIONS WHICH ARE TASKASSIGNED IN THE DEFENSE AREA OF
EXPERTISE
DEFENSE PLANNING GUIDANCE
STRATEGIC PLANNING DIRECTIVE
JOINT STRATEGIC CAPABILITIES PLAN
JOINT DOCTRINE OF THE ARMED FORCES
OPERATIONAL
LEVEL
ANNUAL PLANS CONCERNING THE
MODERNIZATION AND THE TRAINING
OF FORCES BASED ON
SERVICES DOCTRINES
LONG TERM PROCUREMENT
STRATEGY
TACTICAL
LEVEL
REGULATIONS (FIELD MANUALS); DISPOSITIONS;
GUIDELINES
4
5
6
Develop Context
Descriptions
Security Sector Reform
Process
–
Stage
1
1
Identify security
threats
2
Develop
Security Policy
3
4
Develop Defence
Policy
5
6
Develop Missions
& Tasks
Develop
Capabilities &
Force options
Develop Law
& Order Policy
…
Develop Legal
Framework
…
Develop Foreign
policy
…
Amend social
policies
…
Agreement of
options
7
Develop associated
Policies, etc
8
Publication
9
Stage 1: Develop Context
Descriptions
• What ?
– Rational views of the possible future covering
best to worst (“scenarios”)
• How ? - Based upon establishing “drivers”
– Physical, Technological, Economic, Social/Cultural, Legal,
Political, Military
• Who?
– Defence Policy staff
– Government Departments (Foreign Affairs,
Finance, Interior, Other)
– Civil society (academics)
– Parliament
The new Strategic Realities (1)
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
A new Europe and Eurasia
The rise of ethnic and religious tensions
Weak states and ungoverned areas
Proliferation of Weapons of Mass Destruction
Drugs and organised crime
Terrorism
Environmental degradation
The new Strategic Realities (2)
•
•
•
•
•
•
Population growth and demographic change
Urbanisation and transnational migration flows
Resource shortages, especially of water and oil
Globalisation and growing disparities
The pace of technological change
The pace of social change
The New Strategic Environment
compared to Cold War Era
• More interdependent
• More vulnerable due to increasing reliance on
technology
• More uncertain due to increasing range of challenges
& threats
• More varied due to the nature of challenges & threats
• More demanding due to complexity
• An environment with smaller scale, but more frequent
use of force international issues, often asymmetrical
operations
The New Strategic Environment (2)
• Complex, dynamic, having a lot of instability
sources
• The threat of a major military conflict has
diminished
Risks
• Regional (tensions and conflicts that may extend)
• Asymmetric (terrorism, weapons mass destruction)
• Transnational (drug trafficking, organized crime,
illegal immigration)
• Contingencies (placed in the area of uncertainty)
Other factors
•
•
•
•
National interests
Values
International Commitments and Responsibilities
Security Priorities:
– Support to the Civil Power
– Europe
– Outside Europe
Future worlds
POLITICS &
GOVERNANCE
REGIONAL/
RESOURCE
INTERNA TIONAL
SOCIAL COHESION
ECONOMIC
MILITARY
Political Stability
Modern state.
Regional leader in
stable, resource rich
region.
Fully and
Effectively
Engaged
Fully Developed,
Harmonious and Stable.
Steadily increasing,
broad & sustainable
economic
improvement
Constitutional,
Peaceful & Stable
Relative political
stability
Existence within a
stabilising region
Constructively
Engaged
General improvement
Gradual economic
improvement
Professionalising
military with
gradually
improving civilmilitary relations
Political
Instability
Existence within a
turbulent region.
Increasingly
engaged
Fluid, improving in many
areas, declining in some
Economic fragility
Professionalising
military with
difficult civilmilitary relations
Political Chaos
Regional failure
leading to
competition over
poor resources
Ill-prepared
Disintegration and Chaos
Economic Decline
Contempt of
Constitution and
Law
Economic Collapse
Military
government
Severe resource &
Relative
environmental
Isolation
constraint leading to
internal instability
and regional conflict.
Complete failure of
state leading to
external control
Disintegration &
warlordism
Future worlds
POLITICS &
GOVERNANCE
REGIONAL/
RESOURCE
INTERNA TIONAL
SOCIAL COHESION
ECONOMIC
MILITARY
Political Stability
Modern state.
Regional leader in
stable, resource rich
region.
Fully and
Effectively
Engaged
Fully Developed,
Harmonious and Stable.
Steadily increasing,
broad & sustainable
economic
improvement
Constitutional,
Peaceful & Stable
Relative political
stability
Existence within a
stabilising region
Constructively
Engaged
General improvement
Gradual economic
improvement
Professionalising
military with
gradually
improving civilmilitary relations
Political
Instability
Existence within a
turbulent region.
Increasingly
engaged
Fluid, improving in many
areas, declining in some
Economic fragility
Professionalising
military with
difficult civilmilitary relations
Political Chaos
Regional failure
leading to
competition over
poor resources
Ill-prepared
Disintegration and Chaos
Economic Decline
Contempt of
Constitution and
Law
Economic Collapse
Military
government
Severe resource &
Relative
environmental
Isolation
constraint leading to
internal instability
and regional conflict.
Complete failure of
state leading to
external control
Disintegration &
warlordism
Military drivers
Best
state
Constitutional, peaceful and stable
Professionalising military with gradually
improving civil military relations
Professionalising military with difficult civil
military relations
Contempt of constitution and law
Military government
Problem
state
Disintegration and warlordism
Develop Context
Descriptions
Security Sector Reform
Process
–
Stage
2
1
Identify security
threats
2
Develop
Security Policy
3
4
Develop Defence
Policy
5
6
Develop Missions
& Tasks
Develop
Capabilities &
Force options
Develop Law
& Order Policy
…
Develop Legal
Framework
…
Develop Foreign
policy
…
Amend social
policies
…
Agreement of
options
7
Develop associated
Policies, etc
8
Publication
9
Stage 2 - Develop Threat
Descriptions
• What ?
Agreed understanding of security threats
within chosen future worlds
• How ?
Individual , then group view
Risk analysis
No set format, should include:
-
Political & security risk analysis
Political threat assessment
Intelligence & security briefs
Military threat analysis
Military estimate (Aim, Factors, Own course,
Plan/Recommendation)
- Economic risk analysis
- Commercial risk analysis
Develop Context
Descriptions
Security Sector Reform
Process
–
Stage
3
1
Identify security
threats
2
Develop
Security Policy
3
4
Develop Defence
Policy
5
6
Develop Missions
& Tasks
Develop
Capabilities &
Force options
Develop Law
& Order Policy
…
Develop Legal
Framework
…
Develop Foreign
policy
…
Amend social
policies
…
Agreement of
options
7
Develop associated
Policies, etc
8
Publication
9
Stage 3 - Establish Security Policy
• What?
– Statement of broad defence requirements of the State and
role of the military and other instruments of State in
addressing identified threats.
• How? Based upon
– Threats
– Previously agreed policies or obligations (including
regional co-operation)
• Who? National Security Council &
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
Defence Policy staff
Foreign Ministry
Interior Ministry
Finance Ministry
Other Government Ministries
Civil Society
Parliament
National Security Strategy
Assumptions
Analysis
International
Environment
Opportunities/
RISK
Threats
National
Interests
Plans
Domestic
Environment
Objectives
COST
ENDS
Potential
Power
MEANS
Priorities
Implementation
Statecraft
Evaluation
Policies and Results
Actual Power/
Instruments
Stage 3 - Security Policy
Components
Role of
Presidents/Prime
Ministers Office
Role of
Justice
Ministry
Role of Internal
Affairs
Role of
Foreign
Affairs
Ministry
Role of
Finance
Ministry
Role of
Defence
Role of
Intelligence
Role of
Education/
Health etc
Stage 3 - Security Policy
Foreign
Affairs
President’s/ Prime
Ministers Office
Justice
Finance
Internal Affairs
Intelligence
Defence
Education/
Health etc
Develop Context
Descriptions
Security Sector Reform
Process
–
Stage
4
1
Identify security
threats
2
Develop
Security Policy
3
4
Develop Defence
Policy
5
6
Develop Missions
& Tasks
Develop
Capabilities &
Force options
Develop Law
& Order Policy
…
Develop Legal
Framework
…
Develop Foreign
policy
…
Amend social
policies
…
Agreement of
options
7
Develop associated
Policies, etc
8
Publication
9
Stage 4 - Develop Defence
Policy
• What?
– Statement of defence role in meeting security
priorities
• How?
– Based upon Security Policy
• Who?
– Defence Policy staff
– Civil Society
– Other Government Departments
National Defence Strategy
Process
Develop Context
Descriptions
Develop military
threat
descriptions
Develop Defence
Policy
Develop
Missions & Tasks
Develop
Capability
& Force Options
Develop
associated policies
processes structures
Joint Strategic Planning System
Capability
Planning
Defence
Requirements
Planning
Operational
Policy
Planning
Planning
Resource
Planning
Effective linkage is essential
Develop Context
Descriptions
Security Sector Reform
Process
–
Stage
5
1
Identify security
threats
2
Develop
Security Policy
3
4
Develop Defence
Policy
5
6
Develop Missions
& Tasks
Develop
Capabilities &
Force options
Develop Law
& Order Policy
…
Develop Legal
Framework
…
Develop Foreign
policy
…
Amend social
policies
…
Agreement of
options
7
Develop associated
Policies, etc
8
Publication
9
Stage 5 - Develop Defence
Missions and Military Tasks
• What ?
– Defence Missions & associated Military Tasks
• How ?
– Based on Defence policy and planning
assumptions
• Who ?
– Defence Policy staff
– Military Operational Staff
– Military Support Staff
Develop Context
Descriptions
Security Sector Reform
Process
–
Stage
6
1
Identify security
threats
2
Develop
Security Policy
3
4
Develop Defence
Policy
5
6
Develop Missions
& Tasks
Develop
Capabilities &
Force options
Develop Law
& Order Policy
…
Develop Legal
Framework
…
Develop Foreign
policy
…
Amend social
policies
…
Agreement of
options
7
Develop associated
Policies, etc
8
Publication
9
Stage 6 - Develop Capability &
Force Options
• What?
Options for Military Capability:
Command & control; intelligence & surveillance;
maneuver (doctrine and training); mobility &
counter-mobility; firepower; protection; logistics
• How?
- Based upon components of missions and military
tasks, planning assumptions, military doctrine
• Who?
- Defence Policy staff; Military Operational Staff;
Military Support Staff; Civil Society ?
Develop Context
Descriptions
Security Sector Reform
Process
–
Stage
7
1
Identify security
threats
2
Develop
Security Policy
3
4
Develop Defence
Policy
5
6
Develop Missions
& Tasks
Develop
Capabilities &
Force options
Develop Law
& Order Policy
…
Develop Legal
Framework
…
Develop Foreign
policy
…
Amend social
policies
…
Agreement of
options
7
Develop associated
Policies, etc
8
Publication
9
Stage 7 - Agreement of Options
• What ?
– Agreed Military Capability
• How ?
– Costed options assessed against national needs
• Who?
–
–
–
–
–
Defence Minister
Chief of Staff
Finance Minister
Cabinet/Prime Minister/President
Civil Society?
Develop Context
Descriptions
Security Sector Reform
Process
–
Stage
8
1
Identify security
threats
2
Develop
Security Policy
3
4
Develop Defence
Policy
5
6
Develop Missions
& Tasks
Develop
Capabilities &
Force options
Develop Law
& Order Policy
…
Develop Legal
Framework
…
Develop Foreign
policy
…
Amend social
policies
…
Agreement of
options
77
Develop associated
Policies, etc
8
Publication
9
Stage 8 - Develop associated
policies, processes, structures etc
•
•
•
•
•
•
Personnel
Procurement & Logistics
Finance
Policy and planning
Accountability
Linkages to rest of government
Develop Context
Descriptions
Security Sector Reform
Process
–
Stage
9
1
Identify security
threats
2
Develop
Security Policy
3
4
Develop Defence
Policy
5
6
Develop Missions
& Tasks
Develop
Capabilities &
Force options
Develop Law
& Order Policy
…
Develop Legal
Framework
…
Develop Foreign
policy
…
Amend social
policies
…
Agreement of
options
7
Develop associated
Policies, etc
8
Publication
9
Stage 9 - Publication
• Make publicly available
• Parliamentary debate
Timetable
• Will probably take longer than planned!
Other countries experience:14 months to 2 years
Management of the National
Defence Strategy
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Institutional framework
Top level involvement/support
Clear aims and objectives
Dedicated coordinating team
Continuity of (key) participants
Open and Inclusive process
Plan and manage the project
Realistic implementation plan
Implementation
•
•
•
•
•
Long term
Quick wins
Build into normal planning processes
Delegate responsibility to specific individuals
Monitor progress, including oversight by
Parliament
• Flexible
Questions ?
Invenzia Generic Threats
1st
2nd
3rd
Border insecurity - dispute Norvetia /Eastlandia
4th
5th
6th
7th
Organised crime, terrorism, proliferation WMD
Destabilising external influences
Border insecurity – Muslim armed separatist
movement / Thrucazia
Internal security – tensions Muslim community
Civil disaster – major event
Environmental stress/resource constraints –
inadequate resources available
Invenzia - Generic Threats
T34 - Environmental
T74 - Civil Disaster – Major
Stress/Resource Constraints –
Event(s)
Severe Resource Scarcity
T45 - Political Instability Ethnic competition through
arms rather than popular mandate
T65 - Internal Security –
Breakdown
T85 - Economic Shocks & Stress
– Economic Collapse
T94 - Social Polarisation –
Severely Polarised
Impact
H
T54 - Human Underdevelopment
– Underfed, Malnourished,
Subsistence, etc.
T15 - Border Insecurity Regular military bodies (Raids
to Full -scale invasion)
T33 - Environmental
Stress/Resource Constraints –
Inadequate Resource Available
T73 - Civil Disaster – Serious
Event(s)
T93 - Social Polarisation – Fluid
M
T32 - Environmental
Stress/Resource Constraints –
Sufficient Resource Available
T41 - Political Instability Stable
T13 - Border Insecurity - Major
illegal movements of
goods/people
T23 - Destabilising External
Influences –Active hostility
(Major Impact)
T42 - Political Instability Tensions
T22 - Destabilising External
Influences –Reasonable
Impact
T62 - Internal Security - Tensions
T61 - Internal Security – Minimal
Threat
T92 - Social Polarisation – Good
Social Relations.
L
L
M
Probability
T52 - Human Underdevelopment
– Fairly Literate & Trained
Society
T72 - Civil Disaster – Localised
Problems
T82 - Economic Shocks & Stress
– Medium Sustainable Growth
T11 - Border Insecurity - Common
Transgression
H
Defence planning system
I. MISSION
REQUIREMENTS
OPTIONS
(ANALYSIS)
JSCP
VIII. EQUIPMENT
DESTRUCTION
II. SELECTION OF
CONCEPT
VII.CONDUCT AND
SUPPORT
JSPS
I. DIRECTIONS
FRA
PO
ACQ
VI.
PRODUCTION AND
SERVICES
ANALYSIS
IMPLEMENTATION
SCENARIOS
IV.
MISSIONS
II.
CONCEPT
DEVELOPMENT
SUPPORT
JOPES
DPG
MIL
STRAT
III
OPERATIONAL
AND
STRATEGIC
PLANS
III.
OPERATIONAL
REQUIRMENTS
DP
PP
V.
TECHNOLOGICAL
DEVELOPMENT
IV. CONCEPT
DEFINITION
PPBS
CP
AB
DB
DEFENSE PLANNING COUNCIL
PO - Programming objectives;
JSCP - Joint Strategic Capabilities Plan;
PPBS - Planning, programming, budgeting and
evaluating system in the MOND;
MIL STRAT - Military Strategy;
FRA - Force and resource assessment;
PE - Program expenditures;
DP - Defense Programs.
DPG - Defense Planning Guidance.
JSPS - Joint Strategic Planning System;
PP - Project Programs;
DB - Budget draft;
AB - Approved budget.