Present Status and Evaluation
of
Infrastructure in Japan
Title
∼Infrastructure Census and Diagnosis∼
ISHII, Yumio
President
Japan Society of Civil Engineers
Sept. 12, 2007
Reference: Geographical Survey Institute
1
1/25000 topographical maps of[Sakurai-city]&[the Mount of Unebi]
Operative Inherited Assets from
before WWⅡ
„
Transportation
„
„
Energy
„
„
Water Power Stations
Water （River）
„
„
„
Railways, Roads, Ports
Flood Control Works,
Water Supply, Sewage
The First Water Power Station at Kyoto
“Civil Works in Colony”
Reference: Waterworks and Sewerage Bureau, Kyoto City HP
2
Post-War Reconstruction,
Disaster Recovery
„
Dams
„
„
„
„
„
Water supply → Ogouchi Dam
Irrigation
→ Ishibuchi Dam
Power Generation → Sakuma Dam
Flood Control → Ikari Dam
Construction of Road Network
„
Five-Year Plan
for Road Construction
Ogouchi Dam
Reference : “100 selections of modern water system in Japan”
issued by Japan Chronicle on Community Improvement
3
High Economic Growth Period
„
„
„
„
„
Basic Plan for Water
Resources Development
Expressway Network Plan
Shinkansen Bullet Train
Energy change from Water to
Oil
Seaboard Reclamation for
Industrial Areas
National Expressway Network Plan
4
High Economic Growth to
Moderate Growth
Environmental Degradation
„ Pollution-related Diseases
„ Oil Shocks in 1970’s
„ Infrastructure Investment
increased to the peak in 1998
„
5
Transition in GDP, Population &
Infrastructure Investment
Revised Budget (left axis Unit: trillion yen)
1.5
Population (right axis Unit: 100 million)
2004
2001
0.9
1998
0
1995
1.0
1992
10
1989
1.1
1986
20
1983
1.2
1980
30
1977
1.3
1974
40
1971
1.4
1968
50
Population in Japan
(Unit: 100 million)
60
1965
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) 10 trillion yen
Public works Budget （ revised) trillion yen
GDP (left axis Unit: 10 trillion)
Reference：GDP → Annual Report on National Accounts, Cabinet Office
Population → Japan Statistical Yearbook
Budget for public works (revised) → “Public Works and Budget”, Taisei Publishing Co., Ltd
“Highlights of Public Works Budget in 2007(Government plan)” 6
Public Works Expenditure
（National Expenditure base）
(trillion yen)
(revised)
Budget continually
decreased for 9 years
(revised)
(revised)
(revised)
(initial)
(initial)
(initial)
(initial)
„
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 (year)
Basic Plan for Public Investment
Initial(1991~2000): 430 trillion yen, Final (1999~2007): 630 trillion yen
Discontinued after “Reform and Perspectives” (Jan 2002)
Subject to “Reform and Perspectives”
Expenditure at the level before substantial increase
in expenditure as economic measure
Discontinued after “Course and Strategy” (Jan 2007)
Reference: The policy of Construction Industry in 2007
( Final report of Construction Industry Workshop)
7
Infrastructure Investment vs GDP
in Developed Countries
Fixed Capital Formation of Government （% GDP）
7.0
6.0
Japan
5.0
France
4.0
3.3
3.3
3.0
3.2
2.0
2.1
USA
1.0
90
91
92
93
Germany
UK
0.0
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
1.3
06 (year)
年
Japan ：1990 – 2004 Actual （by OECD National Account from 1990 to 2003, Annual Report on National Accounts in 2004
(single year basis)）
2005 - 2006 Estimates （Information from Cabinet Office and government economic outlook （single year basis））
Other Countries：1990-2004 Actual （OECD National Account）
8
2005 and 2006 (from documents issued by EU Economic and Financial Committee)
Is Current Infrastructure in
Japan Good Enough?
„
Frequent Natural Disasters ,Hilly Land
and High Population Density
„
„
Insufficient Infrastructure Stocks
„
„
Simple comparison with other developed
countries is not reasonable
National Minimum is not achieved
Neglecting maintenance and renewal
„
Fear of “Japan in Ruins”
9
Number of Fatalities and Missing due to
Natural Disasters
6,481 (6,436 by
Kobe Earthquake)
5,868 (5,098 by Ise Bay
Typhoon)
7,000
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
Note:
2002
1999
1996
1993
1990
1987
1984
1981
1978
1975
1972
1969
1966
1963
1960
1957
1954
1951
1948
1945
0
１ The total number for Kobe earthquake in 1995 includes 912 related fatalities.
２ The number of fatalities and missing persons of Kobe Earthquake is as of Dec 25. 2005
Reference） 「White Paper on Disaster Management」 , 2005 10
Occurrence Probability of Large
今後30年以内に
Earthquakes
in the next 30 years
Nemuro-Offshore
大規模地震が発生する確率
M7.9 30-40%
around
Yonaguni Islands
M7.8 30%
Miyagi-Offshore
M7.5 99%
Sanriku∼Bousou-Offshore
Tsunami type M8.2 20%
Normal Fault Type M8.2 4~7%
Aki-Nada
∼
Bungo Channel
M6.7~7.4 40%
Inland of
South Kanto Area
M6.7~7.2 70%
Nankai Area
M8.4 50%
East Nankai
Area
M8.1 60%
Tokai Area
M8.0 87%
Drafted by White Paper of MLIT in 2005
11
Factors responsible for Decreasing
Public Support to Infrastructure
„
„
„
„
Frequent media exposure of opposing
arguments against dams, highways, etc
Anti-compliance activities in Construction
Industry
Public Misperception infrastructure in Japan
has already reached a certain level
Civil engineers would not speak out on their
works
12
Significance of Infrastructure
Census and Diagnosis
by Civil Engineers
„
Evaluation from Objective Standpoint
„
„
„
What is the real situation of infrastructure?
What is the result of public works reduction ?
Clarification of Societal Contribution of Civil
Engineers
13
Census in Other Countries
„
ASCE “Report Card”
„
„
Report Card 2003 of Minnesota indicated 16% of bridges
in the state had structural defects or had become
degraded.
USDOT "Government Performance Project" admits
Minnesota does not have a formal bridge preventive
maintenance program
„
„
„
„
ICE “The State of the Nation”
South Africa ICE “Report Card”
Engineers Australia “Report Card”
Swedish Road Administration “Bridge and Tunnel
Management”
14
I-35W bridge collapse
「荒廃する日本」のおそれ
in Minneapolis on Aug.1
Photo by Tom 15
Ruen
Purpose of JSCE to Conduct
Infrastructure Census and
Diagnosis
Examine from Academic and
Objective Standpoint
„ Raise problems regarding to
Infrastructure
„ Trigger Discussions on Appropriate
Standards of Infrastructure
Investment
„
16
Infrastructure Assessment
Indicators （Road）
„
Livelihood
„
„
„
Barrier-free access
coverage
% power lines installed
underground, etc
Safety
„
„
„
Bridge antiseismic
reinforcement
coverage
Fatal and injury
accident rates
Pavement installation
coverage, etc
„
Environment
„
„
Gasoline Consumption, etc
Social
Dynamism
„
„
„
High standard high-way
utilization rate
Time loss by traffic jam
Road improvement
coverage, etc
17
Infrastructure Assessment
Indicators （River）
„
Livelihood
„
„
„
Frequency of drought
occurrence, etc
„
„
Safety
„
„
% areas protected from
flood inundation
% communities with flood
hazard maps, etc
Environment
„
Number of recreational
users in the summer
Rate of environmental
standard achievement,
etc
Social
Dynamism
„
„
Number of river space
users
“River Report Card”
scores, etc
18
Principles of Infrastructure Census
and Diagnosis by JSCE
„
„
„
„
„
Wide coverage of roads, rivers, water supply and
sewage systems, railways, airports, harbors,
coasts, cities, energy, etc
Outcome indicators
Aging indicators
System and organization for continuous
assessment
Transparent Evaluation process
19
Thank you very much !
20