2008 North Main Street Retail Analysis
Columbia, SC
An Analysis of the North Main Street Retail Corridor in Columbia,
SC
March 2008
North Main Street Corridor Overview
Main
Main Street
Street Overview
Overview
The
The North
North Main
Main Street
Street corridor
corridor extends
extends from
from the
the
intersection
of
N.
Main
St.
and
Elmwood
Ave
intersection of N. Main St. and Elmwood Ave to
to the
the
intersection
intersection of
of N.
N. Main
Main St.
St. and
and Clarendon
Clarendon St.
St. This
This
corridor
corridor is
is approximately
approximately 1.8
1.8 miles
miles long.
long. The
The half
half
mile
mile buffer
buffer around
around the
the corridor
corridor represents
represents the
the
primary
primary retail
retail trade
trade area.
area.
Retail
Retail along
along the
the N.
N. Main
Main Street
Street corridor
corridor is
is the
the most
most
cohesive
cohesive of
of the
the three
three corridors.
corridors. There
There are
are several
several
commercial
nodes
which
create
a
focused
commercial nodes which create a focused retail
retail
environment.
environment.
The
The North
North Main
Main Street
Street corridor
corridor retail
retail is
is local
local serving;
serving;
itit relies
relies primarily
primarily on
on nearby
nearby residents,
residents, workers,
workers, and
and
students
as
its
customer
base.
students as its customer base.
The
The primary
primary retail
retail segments
segments which
which this
this study
study analyzes
analyzes
are
apparel
and
apparel
services,
household
are apparel and apparel services, household
furnishings
furnishings and
and electronics,
electronics, personal
personal care
care and
and
services,
and
eating
and
drinking
places.
These
services, and eating and drinking places. These
categories
categories were
were chosen
chosen in
in order
order to
to focus
focus the
the
analysis
analysis and
and because
because these
these are
are the
the retail
retail categories
categories
which
which would
would best
best enhance
enhance the
the current
current retail
retail
environment.
environment.
ERA No: 17467 – Columbia N. Main Street Retail Analysis
Page 1
Methodology/Term Definitions
Summary
Summary
In
In order
order to
to calculate
calculate the
the retail
retail potential
potential of
of the
the
N.
N. Main
Main Street
Street corridor,
corridor, ERA
ERA has
has analyzed
analyzed
the
the demand
demand generated
generated by
by several
several market
market
segments.
segments. These
These segments
segments are
are residents,
residents,
office
office employees,
employees, and
and aa small
small number
number of
of
college
and
university
students,
all
within
college and university students, all within
the
the primary
primary trade
trade area.
area. Students,
Students, Visitors
Visitors
and
Inflow
are
calculated
as
secondary
and Inflow are calculated as secondary
market
market segments.
segments.
The
The purpose
purpose of
of this
this study
study is
is to
to analyze
analyze retail
retail
sales,
sales, demand,
demand, and
and opportunities
opportunities along
along the
the
corridor
corridor in
in order
order to
to suggest
suggest ways
ways through
through
which
the
retail
environment
can
be
which the retail environment can be
improved.
improved. Because
Because of
of the
the limited
limited retail
retail
offerings
and
consumer
markets
in
offerings and consumer markets in the
the City
City
of
of Columbia,
Columbia, this
this may
may entail
entail drawing
drawing
potential
potential sales
sales from
from the
the other
other corridors
corridors or
or
from
the
downtown
area.
from the downtown area.
The
The organization
organization of
of this
this study
study is
is an
an analysis
analysis of
of
each
demand
segment,
calculation
of
the
each demand segment, calculation of the
sales
sales gap
gap and
and capture
capture rate,
rate, aa critical
critical
analysis
of
the
existing
retail
environment,
analysis of the existing retail environment,
and
and suggestions
suggestions on
on how
how the
the retail
retail
environment
environment can
can be
be improved.
improved.
ERA No: 17467 – Columbia N. Main Street Retail Analysis
Capture
Capture Rate
Rate
Capture
Capture rates
rates identify
identify what
what portion
portion of
of demand
demand potential
potential (total
(total annual
annual
spending
spending potential
potential of
of all
all market
market segments
segments in
in the
the select
select retail
retail
categories.)
categories.) are
are captured
captured in
in aa given
given area
area (i.e.
(i.e. aa capture
capture rate
rate of
of 10%
10%
suggests
suggests that
that $10
$10 of
of every
every $100
$100 in
in spending
spending potential
potential is
is spent
spent in
in aa
given
area).
Given
that
people
typically
shop
at
a
variety
of
given area). Given that people typically shop at a variety of
locations,
locations, aa 100%
100% capture
capture rate
rate is
is not
not realistic.
realistic.
Leakage/Surplus
Leakage/Surplus Factor
Factor
The
The Leakage/Surplus
Leakage/Surplus factor
factor presents
presents aa snapshot
snapshot of
of retail
retail opportunity.
opportunity.
This
metric
is
a
measure
of
the
relationship
between
supply
This metric is a measure of the relationship between supply and
and
demand
demand that
that ranges
ranges from
from +100
+100 (total
(total leakage)
leakage) to
to -100
-100 (total
(total
surplus).
surplus). AA positive
positive value
value represents
represents ‘leakage’
‘leakage’ or
or retail
retail opportunity
opportunity
inside
the
trade
area.
A
negative
value
represents
a
surplus
inside the trade area. A negative value represents a surplus of
of retail
retail
sales,
sales, aa market
market where
where customers
customers are
are drawn
drawn in
in from
from outside
outside the
the
trade
trade area.
area. This
This analysis
analysis is
is included
included to
to present
present all
all opportunities
opportunities in
in aa
standardized
standardized fashion.
fashion.
Retail
Retail Categories
Categories
This
This study
study focuses
focuses on
on retail
retail categories
categories of
of Apparel
Apparel and
and Apparel
Apparel Services,
Services,
Household
Household Furnishings
Furnishings and
and Electronics,
Electronics, Personal
Personal Care
Care and
and Services,
Services,
and
and Eating
Eating and
and Drinking
Drinking Places.
Places. These
These categories
categories were
were selected
selected as
as
they
are
typically
local
serving
and
make
up
the
bulk
of
retail
they are typically local serving and make up the bulk of retail
demand.
demand. N.
N. Main
Main street
street has
has many
many businesses,
businesses, such
such as
as autoautooriented
businesses,
which
would
skew
the
analysis
to
show
oriented businesses, which would skew the analysis to show aa retail
retail
environment
environment with
with aa very
very high
high retail
retail surplus
surplus and
and little
little opportunity
opportunity
for
for new
new retail
retail development.
development.
Page 2
Methodology
Summary
Summary
The
The primary
primary trade
trade area
area contains
contains the
the main
main consumer
consumer
markets
for
the
corridor
and
is
derived
from
markets for the corridor and is derived from aa half
half
mile
mile buffer
buffer around
around the
the corridor.
corridor.
¾
¾ Resident
Resident Market
Market data
data is
is for
for households
households within
within the
the
primary
primary trade
trade area
area (the
(the dashed
dashed line).
line). These
These
households
households are
are the
the main
main customer
customer base
base for
for the
the
nearby
nearby retail.
retail. The
The neighborhoods
neighborhoods within
within the
the primary
primary
trade
area
are
experiencing
a
revitalization
as
trade area are experiencing a revitalization as home
home
prices
increase
and
more
affluent
residents,
with
prices increase and more affluent residents, with
higher
higher spending
spending potential,
potential, move
move in.
in.
¾
¾ Employee
Employee Market
Market data
data is
is from
from all
all businesses
businesses and
and
organizations
organizations along
along the
the corridor
corridor (the
(the blue
blue points).
points).
This
This includes
includes non-profit
non-profit and
and government
government
employment.
employment.
¾
¾ Inflow,
Inflow, calculated
calculated as
as aa percentage
percentage of
of sales,
sales, is
is
spending
spending from
from outside
outside the
the trade
trade area.
area.
¾
¾ Sales
Sales data
data is
is the
the estimated
estimated sales
sales or
or assets
assets of
of retail
retail
business
business along
along the
the corridor
corridor (the
(the green
green points)
points) in
in the
the
select
categories.
select categories.
Source: ESRI Business Information Solutions; Economics Research Associates, 2008.
ERA No: 17467 – Columbia N. Main Street Retail Analysis
Page 3
North Main Street Corridor: Residential Market
Demographic Summary
Summary
Summary
The
The N.
N. Main
Main Street
Street Corridor
Corridor residential
residential market
market is
is
comprised
of
persons
living
within
a
half
mile
comprised of persons living within a half mile of
of the
the
corridor.
corridor.
The
The residential
residential market
market is
is comprised
comprised of
of 7,458
7,458 persons
persons in
in
3,201
3,201 households.
households. The
The population
population is
is expected
expected to
to
grow
grow by
by 45
45 persons
persons and
and 91
91 households
households by
by 2012.
2012. This
This
shift
indicates
a
slight
decrease
in
household
size
as
shift indicates a slight decrease in household size as
demographics
demographics in
in the
the local
local neighborhoods
neighborhoods transition
transition
to
younger
couples
and
single
persons
without
to younger couples and single persons without
children,
children, this
this shift
shift is
is reflective
reflective of
of national
national household
household
formation
formation trends.
trends.
The
The average
average household
household income
income in
in the
the area
area is
is expected
expected
to
to increase
increase by
by $6,467
$6,467 from
from $41,922
$41,922 to
to $48,289
$48,289 from
from
2007
to
2012.
This
represents
a
compound
annual
2007 to 2012. This represents a compound annual
growth
growth rate
rate of
of 2.91%
2.91% and,
and, when
when adjusted
adjusted for
for
inflation,
a
real
growth
rate
of
.76%.
inflation, a real growth rate of .76%.
The
The total
total area
area income
income is
is expected
expected to
to increase
increase by
by over
over
$50M
from
2007
to
2012.
This
corresponds
to
$50M from 2007 to 2012. This corresponds to an
an
increase
increase in
in tax
tax base,
base, dollars
dollars available
available to
to be
be invested
invested
in
in homes,
homes, and
and dollars
dollars available
available to
to be
be spent
spent on
on local
local
retail.
retail.
7,458
7,503
0.12%
2007 Households
2012 Households
CAGR 07-12
3,201
3,292
0.56%
2007 Avg Household Income
2012 Avg Household Income
CAGR 07-12
Real Growth Rate 1/
$41,922
$48,389
2.91%
0.76%
2007 Median Household Income
2012 Median Household Income
CAGR 07-12
$30,163
$34,600
2.78%
Total Area Income 2007
Total Area Income 2012
CAGR 07-12
2007 Annual Retail Expenditures,
Select Categories
Retail in Select Categories
Apparel & Apparel Services
HH Furnishings & Electronics
Personal Care & Services
Eating & Drinking Places
Subtotal
2007
2007 residential
residential expenditures
expenditures in
in the
the primary
primary retail
retail
categories
and
at
eating
and
drinking
places
categories and at eating and drinking places are
are
estimated
estimated at
at $12.2M
$12.2M and
and $7M
$7M respectively.
respectively.
Source: ESRI Business Information Solutions; Economics Research Associates, 2008.
ERA No: 17467 – Columbia N. Main Street Retail Analysis
2007 Population
2012 Population
CAGR 07-12
Page 4
$312,654,276
$363,062,667
3.03%
Annual Market
Area Retail
Expenditures
3,840 $
12,291,200
1,492 $
4,774,516
1,606 $
5,142,310
742 $
2,374,374
2,187 $
7,002,029
6,027 $
19,293,229
Avg HH Retail
Expenditures
$
$
$
$
$
$
Total
Total Demand
Demand Potential:
Potential: $19.2M
$19.2M
North Main Street Corridor: Residential Market Demographics
Summary
Summary
Racial
Racial Distribution
Distribution
In
In order
order to
to plan
plan proper
proper retail
retail programming,
programming, aa cursory
cursory
knowledge
knowledge of
of the
the market
market demographics
demographics are
are important..
important..
White - 30.3%
race
Different
Different demographic
demographic groups
groups and
and sub-groups
sub-groups have
have
different
different retail
retail spending
spending and
and dining
dining preferences.
preferences. For
For
example,
the
retail
spending
needs
and
habits
of
persons
example, the retail spending needs and habits of persons
under
under 18
18 will
will be
be different
different than
than those
those for
for persons
persons over
over
65.
65.
Black - 64.2%
American Indian,
Eskimo, Aleut - 0.2%
Asian or Pacific Islander
- 0.6%
The
The trade
trade are
are population
population is
is 7,468
7,468 persons
persons in
in 3,201
3,201
households.
households.
Hispanic Origin - 2.6%
Other - 2%
Income
Income Distribution
Distribution
Age
Age Distribution
Distribution
16%
14%
30%
EmptyNester
18%
Retirees
25%
Female
Female -- 55%
55%
Median
Median Age
Age –– 34.6
34.6
12%
20%
10%
15%
Median
Median –– $30,163
$30,163
Mean
Mean -- $41,922
$41,922
Total
Total HHs
HHs –– 3,201
3,201
8%
6%
10%
4%
5%
2%
0%
0%
%
0-4
5-9
10 14
6%
5%
6%
15 19
20 24
25 34
35 44
45 54
55 65
65 75
75+
10%
9%
15%
14%
15%
10%
5%
5%
ERA No: 17467 – Columbia N. Main Street Retail Analysis
Page 5
%
< $15,000
$15,000 $24,999
$25,000 $34,999
$35,000 $49,999
24%
19%
11%
16%
$50,000 $75,000 +
$74,999
18%
11%
North Main Street Corridor: Employee Market
Total Businesses
Total Employment
848
10,704
BUSINESSES
Number Percent
Agriculture & Mining
Mining
Utilities
Construction
Manufacturing
Wholesale Trade
Retail Trade
Transportation & Warehousing
Information
Finance & Insurance
Central Bank/Credit Intermediation & Related Activities
Insurance Carriers & Related Activities; Funds, Trusts & Other
financial Vehicles
Real Estate, Rental & Leasing
Professional, Scientific & Tech Services
Legal Services
Management of companies & Enterprises
Administrative & Support & Waste Management &
Remediation Services
Educational Services
Health care & Social Assistance
Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation
Accommodation and Food Services
Accommodation
Food Services and Drinking Places
Other Services (except Public Administration)
Automotive Repair & Maintenance
Public Administration
Unclassified Establishments
Office Worker Spending
Retail in Select Categories
Eating & Drinking Places
Lunch
Dinner/Drinks
Total
EMPLOYMENT
Number Percent
0
0
1
31
14
20
70
2
8
60
28
21
0.0%
0.0%
0.1%
3.7%
1.7%
2.4%
8.3%
0.2%
0.9%
7.1%
3.3%
2.5%
0
0
0
222
46
174
406
7
113
366
155
110
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
2.1%
0.4%
1.6%
3.8%
0.1%
1.1%
3.4%
1.4%
1.0%
35
221
165
0
25
4.1%
26.1%
19.5%
0.0%
2.9%
1,057
1,230
861
0
142
9.9%
11.5%
8.0%
0.0%
1.3%
11
89
14
29
3
26
119
23
88
11
1.3%
10.5%
1.7%
3.4%
0.4%
3.1%
14.0%
2.7%
10.4%
1.3%
517
1,778
45
425
4
421
475
69
3,698
3
4.8%
16.6%
0.4%
4.0%
0.0%
3.9%
4.4%
0.6%
34.5%
0.0%
Summary
Summary
The
The N.
N. Main
Main Street
Street Corridor
Corridor employee
employee market
market is
is
comprised
comprised of
of employees
employees from
from office
office oriented
oriented
businesses
businesses within
within aa half
half mile
mile of
of the
the corridor.
corridor.
Employee
Employee spending
spending is
is estimated
estimated to
to be
be generated
generated
primarily
from
office
workers
in
the
fields
primarily from office workers in the fields of
of Retail
Retail
Trade,
Trade, Finance
Finance &
& Insurance,
Insurance, Professional,
Professional, Scientific
Scientific
&
& Tech
Tech Services,
Services, Educational
Educational Services,
Services, Health
Health Care
Care &
&
Social
Services,
and
Public
Administration.
This
Social Services, and Public Administration. This
represent
represent 87.7%
87.7% of
of total
total employment.
employment. Employment
Employment
in
these
categories
is
expected
to
grow
in these categories is expected to grow by
by 759
759
persons
persons in
in 2012
2012 based
based on
on MSA
MSA industry
industry trends.
trends.
The
The largest
largest employment
employment concentrations
concentrations in
in the
the Main
Main
Street
Street employee
employee market
market are
are in
in Public
Public
Administration,
Administration, Health
Health Care
Care and
and Social
Social Services,
Services, and
and
Professional
Services.
Professional Services.
Much
Much of
of the
the office
office worker
worker demand
demand for
for retail
retail spending
spending
and
dinner/drinking
places
are
not
captured
and dinner/drinking places are not captured by
by the
the
N.
N. Main
Main Street
Street corridor
corridor as
as adequate
adequate retail
retail offerings
offerings
do
do not
not exist.
exist.
2007 Expenditures
$
$
$
$
$
9,600,610
11,564,189
10,622,637
941,552
21,164,799
Total
Total Demand
Demand Potential:
Potential: $21.1M
$21.1M
Source: ESRI Business Information Solutions; ICSC; InfoUSA; Woods and Poole; Economics Research Associates, 2008.
ERA No: 17467 – Columbia N. Main Street Retail Analysis
Page 6
North Main Street Corridor: Student and Inflow Market
Secondary
Secondary Market:
Market: Inflow
Inflow
The
The N.
N. Main
Main Street
Street inflow
inflow market
market is
is comprised
comprised of
of college
college and
and university
university students
students and
and visitors
visitors and
and
general
general inflow
inflow .. Unlike
Unlike other
other markets
markets in
in which
which spending
spending potential
potential is
is estimated,
estimated, the
the inflow
inflow market
market is
is
estimated
to
generally
account
for
4%
of
sales
in
the
selected
retail
categories.
Since
the
inflow
estimated to generally account for 4% of sales in the selected retail categories. Since the inflow
market
market has
has no
no geographical
geographical constraints
constraints itit therefore
therefore theoretically
theoretically has
has unlimited
unlimited demand
demand potential.
potential.
Inflow
Inflow demand
demand will
will increase
increase as
as better,
better, and
and more
more visible,
visible, retail
retail offerings
offerings are
are placed
placed along
along the
the corridor.
corridor.
Student
Student Market
Market (1.5%
(1.5% of
of total
total sales)
sales)
General
General Inflow
Inflow Market
Market (2.5%
(2.5% of
of total
total sales)
sales)
Student
Student spending
spending is
is generated
generated by:
by:
Other
Other Inflow
Inflow Demand
Demand is
is Generate
Generate by:
by:
¾
¾ Lutheran
Lutheran Theological
Theological Southern
Southern Seminary:
Seminary: 171
171
Students.
Students.
¾
¾ Business
Business Visitors.
Visitors.
¾
¾ Passing
Passing through
through traffic.
traffic.
¾
¾ WL
WL Bonner
Bonner College:
College: 137
137 Undergraduate
Undergraduate Students.
Students.
¾
¾ Columbia
Columbia College:
College: 1,143
1,143 Undergraduate
Undergraduate Students;
Students;
303
303 Graduate
Graduate Students.
Students.
¾
¾ Friends
Friends and
and family
family visitors
visitors to
to students
students at
at the
the local
local
colleges
colleges and
and universities.
universities.
¾
¾ Visitors
Visitors to
to persons
persons living
living within
within the
the primary
primary trade
trade
area.
area.
¾
¾ Persons
Persons from
from outside
outside the
the primary
primary trade
trade area.
area.
General
General inflow
inflow spending
spending is
is estimated
estimated to
to account
account for
for
2%
2% of
of retail
retail sales
sales and
and 3%
3% of
of sales
sales at
at eating
eating and
and
drinking
places.
drinking places.
Student
Student spending
spending is
is estimated
estimated to
to account
account for
for 1%
1% of
of
retail
retail sales
sales and
and 2%
2% of
of sales
sales at
at eating
eating and
and drinking
drinking
places.
places.
Total
Total Estimated
Estimated Sales:
Sales: $448,000
$448,000
ERA No: 17467 – Columbia N. Main Street Retail Analysis
Page 7
North Main Street Corridor: Estimated 2007 Retail Sales Volume
Retail
Retail Sales
Sales
Total Corridor Retail Businesses
Total Sales (Including Food Services and Drinking Places)
43
$68,945
BUSINESSES
Retail Trade
Motor Vehicle and Parts Dealers
Furniture & Home Furnishings Stores
Electronics & Appliance Stores
Bldg Material and Garden Equipment and Supplies Dealers
Food & Beverage Stores
Health & Personal Care Stores
Gasoline Stations
Clothing and Clothing Accessories Stores
Sport Goods, Hobby, Book, & Music Stores
General Merchandise Stores
Miscellaneous Store Retailers
Nonstore Retailers
Food Services and Drinking Places
Number
Percent
SALES VOLUME
(ESTIMATE IN 000s)
2006 Sales Total
34
14
0
1
3
4
2
0
0
4
2
4
0
9
20.5%
8.4%
0.0%
0.6%
1.8%
2.4%
1.2%
0.0%
0.0%
2.4%
1.2%
2.4%
0.0%
5.4%
$63,665
$38,256
$0
$966
$5,427
$8,191
$4,392
$0
$0
$3,038
$1,224
$2,171
$0
$5,280
Retail
Retail Sales
Sales Volume
Volume (Select
(Select Categories)
Categories)
Total Retail Trade
Retail in Select Categories
Apparel & Apparel Services
HH Furnishings & Electronics
Personal Care & Services
Eating and Drinking Places
Subtotal
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
The
The total
total sales
sales volume
volume of
of $69M
$69M represents
represents the
the
total
net
revenue
and
assets
of
all
retail
total net revenue and assets of all retail
business
business directly
directly along
along the
the corridor.
corridor.
This
This analysis
analysis is
is focused
focused on
on the
the retail
retail categories
categories
of
of Apparel
Apparel and
and Apparel
Apparel Services,
Services, Household
Household
Furnishings
Furnishings and
and Electronics,
Electronics, Personal
Personal Care
Care
and
and Services,
Services, and
and in
in Eating
Eating and
and Drinking
Drinking
Places.
Places. Total
Total sales
sales volume
volume for
for the
the selected
selected
retail
retail categories
categories total
total $11.4M.
$11.4M.
Total
Total retail
retail sales
sales are
are skewed
skewed by
by the
the motor
motor
vehicle
vehicle and
and parts
parts dealers
dealers which
which make
make up
up
over
over 50%
50% of
of sales
sales –– most
most of
of which
which are
are likely
likely
to
persons
outside
of
the
trade
area.
to persons outside of the trade area.
68,945,000
6,138,000
780,000
966,000
4,392,000
5,280,000
11,418,000
Sales
Sales Volume
Volume in
in Selected
Selected
Categories:
$11.4M
Categories: $11.4M
Source: ESRI Business Information Solutions; InfoUSA; Economics Research Associates, 2008.
ERA No: 17467 – Columbia N. Main Street Retail Analysis
Summary
Summary
Page 8
Retail Environment: 2007 Retail Leakage in Select Categories
N.
N. Main
Main Street
Street Trade
Trade Area
Area Demand
Demand Potential
Potential
The
The trade
trade area
area demand
demand potential
potential is
is the
the sum
sum of
of residential
residential demand,
demand, employee
employee demand,
demand, and
and sales
sales
to
to the
the secondary
secondary student
student and
and inflow
inflow market
market segments.
segments. Total
Total demand
demand potential
potential represents
represents the
the
buying
power
from
the
local
markets
which
support
the
N.
Main
Street
corridor.
The
actual
buying power from the local markets which support the N. Main Street corridor. The actual
sales
sales are
are less
less than
than total
total demand
demand potential
potential since
since 100%
100% of
of demand
demand potential
potential is
is not
not captured
captured
along
along the
the corridor
corridor –– the
the difference
difference is
is the
the retail
retail leakage.
leakage.
Residents
Residents (48%)
(48%)
Employees
Employees (50%)
(50%)
Students
Students (.4%)
(.4%)
Inflow
Inflow (.7%)
(.7%)
Residential
Residential demand,
demand, aa
primary
primary demand
demand
segment,
segment, is
is estimated
estimated to
to
generate
$12.3M
in
generate $12.3M in
retail
retail demand
demand and
and $7M
$7M
in
demand
for
eating
in demand for eating
and
and drinking
drinking places.
places.
Local
Local Employee
Employee demand,
demand,
the
largest
demand
the largest demand
segment,
segment, is
is estimated
estimated to
to
generate
$8.97M
in
generate $8.97M in
retail
retail demand
demand and
and $10.8
$10.8
in
demand
for
eating
in demand for eating
and
and drinking
drinking places.
places.
Student
Student demand,
demand, aa
secondary
secondary demand
demand
segment,
segment, is
is estimated
estimated to
to
generate
$61K
in
retail
generate $61K in retail
demand
demand and
and $105K
$105K in
in
demand
demand for
for eating
eating and
and
drinking
drinking places.
places. Student
Student
demand
demand is
is estimated
estimated as
as
aa percentage
of
sales.
percentage of sales.
Inflow
Inflow Demand,
Demand, aa secondary
secondary
demand
segment,
demand segment, is
is
estimated
to
generate
estimated to generate
$122K
$122K in
in retail
retail demand
demand
and
$158
in
demand
and $158 in demand for
for
eating
eating and
and drinking
drinking
places.
places. Inflow
Inflow demand
demand is
is
estimated
estimated as
as aa percentage
percentage
of
of sales.
sales.
Total
Total Demand
Demand Potential:
Potential: $39.5M
$39.5M
Total
Total Sales
Sales Volume:
Volume: $11.42M
$11.42M
Leakage:
Leakage: ($28.1)
($28.1)
Source: ESRI Business Information Solutions; InfoUSA; Census of Retail Trade; ICSC; Economics Research Associates, 2008.
ERA No: 17467 – Columbia N. Main Street Retail Analysis
Page 9
Market
Market
Penetration/Capture
Penetration/Capture
Rate:
Rate: 29%
29%
Retail Environment: 2012 Retail Demand Growth
2012
2012 Demand
Demand Growth
Growth
2012
2012 Retail
Retail demand
demand growth
growth is
is the
the incremental
incremental difference
difference in
in demand
demand of
of the
the primary
primary market
market segments
segments over
over time.
time. This
This
demand
demand growth
growth is
is calculated
calculated only
only for
for residents
residents and
and employees,
employees, as
as student
student and
and inflow
inflow spending
spending is
is calculated
calculated as
as aa
percentage
percentage of
of sales.
sales. Residential
Residential demand
demand is
is determined
determined by
by calculating
calculating retail
retail spending
spending growth
growth at
at the
the same
same rate
rate as
as
real
income
growth
and
by
projecting
employee
spending
to
grow
by
the
increase
in
employees.
All
2012
increases
real income growth and by projecting employee spending to grow by the increase in employees. All 2012 increases
are
are presented
presented in
in 2007
2007 dollars
dollars in
in order
order to
to illustrate
illustrate only
only the
the real
real growth
growth in
in spending
spending power
power and
and support
support for
for new
new
retail.
retail.
Residents
Residents
Employees
Employees
2012
2012 Residential
Residential demand
demand
is
is estimated
estimated to
to grow
grow by
by
$.47M
$.47M in
in retail
retail demand
demand
and
$.27M
in
demand
and $.27M in demand
for
for eating
eating and
and drinking
drinking
places.
places.
2012
2012 Local
Local Employee
Employee
demand
is
demand is estimated
estimated to
to
grow
grow by
by $.72M
$.72M in
in retail
retail
demand
demand and
and $.87
$.87 in
in
demand
demand for
for eating
eating and
and
drinking
places.
drinking places.
Resident
Resident Summary
Summary
2012 Annual Retail Expenditures, Avg HH Retail Annual Market Area
Select Categories
Expenditures Retail Expenditures
Retail in Select Categories
Apparel & Apparel Services
HH Furnishings & Electronics
Personal Care & Services
Eating & Drinking Places
Subtotal
3,988
1,549
1,668
770
2,272
6,260
$
$
$
$
$
$
12,765,641
4,958,812
5,340,804
2,466,025
7,272,308
20,037,949
Officer
Officer Worker
Worker Summary
Summary
Officer Worker Spending
Retail in Select Categories
Eating & Drinking Places
Lunch
Dinner/Drinks
Total
2012
2012 Demand
Demand Potential:
Potential: $46.87M
$46.87M
2012 Expenditures
$
$
$
$
$
9,692,257
11,674,579
10,724,039
950,540
21,366,836
2007
2007 Demand
Demand Potential:
Potential: $44.53M
$44.53M
New
New Demand:
Demand: $2.34M
$2.34M
Source: ESRI Business Information Solutions; InfoUSA; Census of Retail Trade; ICSC; Woods and Poole; Economics Research Associates, 2008.
ERA No: 17467 – Columbia N. Main Street Retail Analysis
Page 10
Retail Environment: 2007 - 2012 Retail Demand Summary
Demand
Demand Growth
Growth Summary
Summary
Growth
Growth projections
projections show
show that
that demand
demand for
for both
both the
the select
select retail
retail categories
categories as
as well
well as
as at
at
eating
eating and
and drinking
drinking places
places will
will increase
increase by
by 2012
2012 due
due to
to population
population growth,
growth, real
real income
income
growth,
growth, and
and employment
employment growth.
growth. This
This analysis
analysis is
is in
in 2007
2007 dollars.
dollars.
100%
100% of
of the
the unmet
unmet demand
demand can
can not
not be
be captured
captured along
along the
the corridor.
corridor. Consumers
Consumers make
make aa
large
part
of
their
purchases
near
home,
but
all
will
at
some
point
make
purchases
large part of their purchases near home, but all will at some point make purchases
elsewhere.
elsewhere.
2007
2007 –– 2012
2012 Retail
Retail Sales/Surplus
Sales/Surplus Summary
Summary
$25.00
(Millions of $)
$20.00
$15.00
$10.00
$5.00
$0.00
Select Retail Categories
Eating and Drinking Places
07 - 12 Demand Growth
$1.20
$1.14
2007 Uncaptured Retail Demand
$15.30
$12.78
2007 Retail Sales
$6.13
$5.28
Source: ESRI Business Information Solutions; InfoUSA; Census of Retail Trade; ICSC; Woods and Poole; Economics Research Associates, 2008.
ERA No: 17467 – Columbia N. Main Street Retail Analysis
Page 11
Corridor Retail Assessment: Strengths, Weaknesses, Needs/Concerns
Overall
Overall Retail
Retail Demand
Demand
Total
Total retail
retail demand
demand from
from all
all market
market segments
segments
in
all
spending
categories
is
$57.84M,
in all spending categories is $57.84M, the
the
select
select categories
categories represent
represent 70%
70% of
of retail
retail
demand
demand across
across all
all categories.
categories.
Retail
Retail Assessment
Assessment
ERA’s
ERA’s overall
overall assessment
assessment of
of the
the N.
N. Main
Main Street
Street
Corridor
is
that
it
is
strong
but
has
Corridor is that it is strong but has
weaknesses
weaknesses that
that indicate
indicate that
that itit has
has not
not
reached
reached it’s
it’s full
full potential.
potential.
The
The estimated
estimated market
market capture
capture rate
rate of
of 29%
29%
suggests
suggests that
that nearly
nearly aa third
third of
of purchases
purchases
from
from the
the local
local market
market segments
segments are
are being
being
made
made along
along the
the corridor,
corridor, and
and although
although this
this
is
relatively
high,
it
can
be
increased
is relatively high, it can be increased
through
through improving
improving the
the retail
retail offerings.
offerings.
With
With retail
retail leakage
leakage of
of $28.1M
$28.1M annually,
annually, aa
demand
demand potential
potential of
of $39.51M,
$39.51M, and
and sales
sales of
of
$11.4M,
$11.4M, the
the area
area has
has aa leakage/surplus
leakage/surplus
factor
factor of
of -55
-55 in
in the
the select
select retail
retail categories
categories
and
and at
at eating
eating and
and drinking
drinking places.
places. This
This
indicates
a
leakage
of
retail
sales
where
indicates a leakage of retail sales where
persons
persons are
are going
going to
to other
other areas
areas to
to make
make
purchases.
purchases. With
With proper
proper improvement
improvement and
and
programming,
retail
sales
can
be
increased,
programming, retail sales can be increased,
although
although aa 100%
100% capture
capture rate
rate is
is never
never
possible.
possible.
ERA No: 17467 – Columbia N. Main Street Retail Analysis
Market
Market Strengths
Strengths
¾
¾ Housing
Housing values
values and
and incomes
incomes of
of local
local residents
residents are
are on
on the
the rise
rise which
which
will
will correlate
correlate with
with increased
increased retail
retail spending.
spending.
¾
¾ Current
Current retail
retail is
is comprised
comprised of
of good
good business
business with
with great
great potential
potential to
to
transform
transform the
the corridor
corridor into
into aa strong
strong retail
retail environment.
environment.
¾
¾ Many
Many businesses
businesses have
have been
been in
in the
the market
market for
for some
some time
time and
and have
have aa
strong
strong dedicated
dedicated customer
customer base.
base.
Market
Market Weaknesses
Weaknesses
¾
¾ Poor
Poor signage
signage and
and street
street orientation
orientation of
of local
local businesses.
businesses.
¾
¾ Many
Many businesses
businesses are
are lacking
lacking in
in aesthetics
aesthetics and
and will
will loose
loose possible
possible
business
business because
because they
they do
do not
not stand
stand out.
out.
¾
¾ Payday
Payday loan
loan stores
stores should
should be
be replaced
replaced by
by full
full service
service banking
banking which
which
will
will allow
allow local
local residents
residents to
to spend
spend less
less on
on check
check cashing
cashing and
and more
more on
on
retail
expenditures.
retail expenditures.
Future
Future Needs/Concerns
Needs/Concerns
¾
¾ Continued
Continued infrastructure
infrastructure investment
investment and
and improvement
improvement along
along the
the
corridor.
corridor.
¾
¾ Educational
Educational initiatives
initiatives for
for business
business owners
owners and
and small
small businesses
businesses
investment
and
assistance
in
order
to
help
them
grow
investment and assistance in order to help them grow and
and properly
properly
advertise
as
well
as
implement
proper
signage.
advertise as well as implement proper signage.
¾
¾ Attraction
Attraction of
of proper
proper retail
retail tenant
tenant mix
mix in
in order
order to
to create
create retail
retail
environment
that
can
best
enhance
and
serve
local
neighborhoods.
environment that can best enhance and serve local neighborhoods.
Page 12
Strategic Assessment and Recommendations
Recommendation
Recommendation 1:
1: Retail
Retail Clustering
Clustering
Strategic
Strategic Needs
Needs Assessment
Assessment
As
As examined
examined in
in the
the December,
December, 2005
2005 North
North
Columbia
Master
Plan,
N.
Main
Street
Columbia Master Plan, N. Main Street
corridor
corridor could
could be
be strengthened
strengthened by
by the
the
creation
of
retail
nodes,
or
concentrations.
creation of retail nodes, or concentrations.
These
These retail
retail nodes
nodes could
could further
further be
be
strengthened
strengthened by
by attracting
attracting franchise
franchise
businesses
which
would
serve
businesses which would serve as
as retail
retail
anchors
anchors at
at the
the nodes,
nodes, drawing
drawing customers
customers
in
in through
through the
the national
national brand
brand reputation
reputation
which
which the
the anchors
anchors have
have already
already
established,
established, and
and persons
persons shopping
shopping would
would
then
be
more
likely
to
shop
at
the
other
then be more likely to shop at the other
stores
stores within
within and/or
and/or surrounding
surrounding the
the node.
node.
These
These strategic
strategic development
development
recommendations
recommendations would
would work
work to
to
supplement
already
existing
business
supplement already existing business
assistance
assistance programs
programs and
and offered
offered by
by the
the
City
City of
of Columbia.
Columbia.
Retail
Retail functions
functions work
work best
best in
in close
close geographic
geographic proximity
proximity and
and with
with aa mix
mix
that
will
offer
shoppers
opportunities
to
spend
in
the
major
general
that will offer shoppers opportunities to spend in the major general
retail
retail categories.
categories. The
The creation
creation of
of new
new retail
retail in
in clusters
clusters would
would improve
improve
the
corridor
by
concentrating
and
drawing
retail
spending.
The
the corridor by concentrating and drawing retail spending. The
suggested
suggested node
node locations
locations are:
are:
¾
¾ N.
N. Main
Main Street
Street at
at Columbia
Columbia College
College Drive.
Drive.
¾
¾N
N Main
Main Street
Street at
at Sunset
Sunset Drive.
Drive.
¾
¾ Area
Area of
of the
the N
N Main
Main Street
Street Plaza.
Plaza.
Recommendation
Recommendation 2:
2: Attract
Attract National
National Franchise
Franchise Tenants
Tenants
While
While small
small business
business support
support and
and creation
creation is
is important,
important, ERA
ERA suggests
suggests
that
that the
the attraction
attraction of
of national
national tenants
tenants to
to the
the corridor
corridor can
can offer
offer growth
growth
opportunities
beyond
what
local
tenants
can
offer.
These
benefits
opportunities beyond what local tenants can offer. These benefits are
are
seen
threefold,
first
in
that
national
tenants
will
be
able
to
increase
seen threefold, first in that national tenants will be able to increase
sales
sales in
in the
the area,
area, franchises
franchises can
can be
be owned
owned by
by local
local persons
persons and
and many
many
franchises
offer
business
management
assistance,
and
at
a
commercial
franchises offer business management assistance, and at a commercial
node,
node, these
these franchises
franchises would
would serve
serve as
as “anchors”
“anchors” attracting
attracting people
people who
who
will
then
shop
at
the
other
businesses.
will then shop at the other businesses.
No
No change
change outcome
outcome
With
With no
no intervention
intervention or
or initiatives
initiatives to
to affect
affect the
the retail
retail environment,
environment, N
N
Main
Main St
St will
will most
most likely
likely continue
continue to
to grow,
grow, but
but haphazardly,
haphazardly, and
and risks
risks
losing
losing some
some customer
customer base
base to
to better
better programmed
programmed and
and developed
developed retail
retail
elsewhere
in
Columbia.
elsewhere in Columbia.
ERA No: 17467 – Columbia N. Main Street Retail Analysis
Page 13
Increased Spending Potential Capture
Summary
Summary
Supportable
Supportable Square
Square Feet
Feet
ERA
ERA estimates
estimates that
that new
new retail
retail could
could increase
increase the
the corridors
corridors
demand
demand capture
capture by
by 6%
6% –– 8%.
8%. This
This would
would mean
mean capturing
capturing
$1.36
$1.81M
of
demand
for
retail
in
the
select
$1.36 - $1.81M of demand for retail in the select categories
categories
and
and $1.15M
$1.15M -- $1.54M
$1.54M of
of demand
demand at
at eating
eating and
and drinking
drinking
places.
places.
In
In order
order for
for new
new retail
retail to
to capture
capture additional
additional spending,
spending, itit would
would
need
need to
to be
be both
both well
well programmed
programmed and
and strategically
strategically placed.
placed.
This
This following
following recommendations
recommendations are
are strategies
strategies for
for capturing
capturing
unmet
unmet and
and new
new demand
demand through
through the
the creation
creation of
of new
new
businesses.
businesses.
$2.51M
$2.51M –– $3.35M
$3.35M of
of additional
additional captured
captured spending
spending could
could
support
10,600
to
14,200
sq
ft
of
new
retail
by
2012.
support 10,600 to 14,200 sq ft of new retail by 2012.
ERA
ERA estimates
estimates that
that the
the new
new supportable
supportable square
square feet
feet will
will be
be
36%
for
eating
and
drinking
places
and
64%
for
the
other
36% for eating and drinking places and 64% for the other
retail
retail categories.
categories.
The
The supportable
supportable size
size of
of aa retail
retail node
node is
is estimated
estimated
by
by applying
applying aa ‘sales
‘sales productivity’,
productivity’, or
or estimated
estimated
sales
per
square
foot,
to
the
select
retail
sales per square foot, to the select retail
categories.
categories.
Different
Different retail
retail categories
categories typically
typically achieve
achieve
different
different sales
sales per
per square
square foot.
foot. This
This sales
sales
productivity
productivity estimate
estimate is
is based
based upon
upon ERA’s
ERA’s
market
research
of
what
well
performing
market research of what well performing
quality
quality retailers
retailers can
can achieve
achieve along
along the
the
corridor.
This
sale
productivity
estimate
corridor. This sale productivity estimate may
may
differ
differ from
from currently
currently achieved
achieved productivity
productivity
rates
rates and
and shouldn’t
shouldn’t be
be used
used to
to retroactively
retroactively
estimate
current
retail
inventory
estimate current retail inventory square
square
footage..
footage..
Estimated
Estimated Sales
Sales Productivity
Productivity (PSF)
(PSF)
$350
Additional
Additional $$ Captured:
Captured: $2.5M
$2.5M –– $3.35M
$3.35M
Additional
Additional Sq
Sq Ft
Ft Supported:
Supported: 10,600–
10,600– 14,200
14,200
$300
$250
$200
$150
$100
$50
$0
ERA No: 17467 – Columbia N. Main Street Retail Analysis
Page 14
Eating
and
Drinking
Places
$300
Select
Retail
Categories
$200
Multiple Factors Will Ultimately Affect The New Supportable Square Feet and
Success of a New Retail
Factors
Factors Affecting
Affecting Supportable
Supportable New
New Retail
Retail
ERA
ERA estimates
estimates that
that the
the N.
N. Main
Main corridor
corridor could
could support
support 10,600
10,600 to
to 14,200
14,200 sq
sq ft
ft of
of new
new retail.
retail. ItIt is
is
recommended
that
new
retail
space
along
the
corridor
is
built
in
clusters
instead
of
as
single
recommended that new retail space along the corridor is built in clusters instead of as single stores.
stores.
The
The development
development and
and programming
programming of
of the
the new
new retail
retail would
would have
have an
an influence
influence on
on what
what end
end of
of the
the
range
range could
could be
be supported.
supported. The
The most
most important
important factor
factor to
to consider
consider in
in the
the creation
creation of
of aa new
new retail
retail
cluster
is
the
tenant
mix,
site
location,
and
the
competitive
context
of
the
area.
cluster is the tenant mix, site location, and the competitive context of the area.
AA retail
retail mix
mix of
of 10,600
10,600 to
to 14,200
14,200 sq
sq ft
ft would
would be
be small
small and
and may
may only
only support
support 33 –– 55 new
new stores.
stores. This
This
retail
mix
would
work
best
with
a
mix
of
other
uses,
such
as
residential
and
office
space.
retail mix would work best with a mix of other uses, such as residential and office space.
Further
Further retail
retail development
development would
would need
need to
to be
be supplemented
supplemented by
by both
both further
further infrastructure
infrastructure
improvement
and
investment
as
well
as
educational
opportunities
to
business
improvement and investment as well as educational opportunities to business owners
owners in
in order
order to
to
best
best ensure
ensure aa cohesive
cohesive and
and well
well formed
formed retail
retail cluster.
cluster.
Factors
Factors Affecting
Affecting Supportable
Supportable New
New Retail
Retail
12,000 SF
12,500 SF
17,500 SF
Tenant Mix
Ill-formed
Well-formed
Site Location
Low Visibility
High Visibility
Competitive Context
Low
ERA No: 17467 – Columbia N. Main Street Retail Analysis
High
The success and appeal of new retail clusters is directly linked to its
tenant mix and its function as a destination.
Proper site placement of a node is important in that low visibility will be
a detriment to all businesses which are clustered together.
The trade areas are capable of spending only a certain amount. If
more $$ are spent in one store less $$ will be spent elsewhere.
Page 15
Recommendation 1: Retail Clustering
Recommendation
Recommendation 11
N.
N. Main
Main @
@ Columbia
Columbia Drive
Drive
ERA’s
ERA’s analysis
analysis of
of the
the N.
N. Main
Main street
street corridor
corridor
found
that
it,
like
many
corridors
in
found that it, like many corridors in
Columbia,
Columbia, has
has spread
spread its
its retail
retail across
across the
the
corridor
with
few
cohesive
concentrations.
corridor with few cohesive concentrations.
Retail
Retail functions
functions work
work best
best when
when clustered
clustered
together;
together; such
such as
as in
in nodes,
nodes, malls,
malls, or
or
shopping
strips,
as
this
enables
retail
shopping strips, as this enables retail
synergy
synergy to
to develop.
develop. When
When retail
retail synergy
synergy
develops
customers
attracted
to
develops customers attracted to the
the retail
retail
clusters
clusters typically
typically spend
spend more
more ..
With
With an
an estimated
estimated 14,000
14,000
vehicle
vehicle average
average daily
daily traffic
traffic
count,
N.
Main
St.
at
count, N. Main St. at
Columbia
Columbia College
College Drive
Drive
benefits
benefits from
from close
close proximity
proximity
to
the
college
as
well
to the college as well as
as
being
being aa major
major visible
visible
thoroughfare
thoroughfare for
for the
the city.
city.
10,600
10,600 to
to 14,200
14,200 square
square feet
feet of
of retail
retail could
could
support
support 33 -- 55 new
new stores
stores in
in the
the next
next five
five
years.
years. Examples
Examples of
of typical
typical tenant
tenant sizes
sizes are:
are:
Currently
Currently occupied
occupied primarily
primarily
by
fast
quick
service
by fast quick service food
food and
and
financial
services.
ERA
financial services. ERA
recommends
recommends that
that aa
redevelopment
redevelopment of
of this
this prime
prime
location
would
service
location would service as
as aa
good
good location
location for
for new
new retail
retail..
¾
¾ Apparel
Apparel 3,500
3,500 SF
SF
¾
¾ Accessories
Accessories 2,000
2,000 –– 10,000
10,000 SF
SF
¾
¾ Personal
Personal Care
Care 2,000
2,000 –– 10,000
10,000 SF
SF
N.
N. Main
Main @
@ Sunset
Sunset Drive
Drive
¾
¾ Household
Household Furnishings
Furnishings 3,500
3,500 –– 10,000
10,000
SF
SF
¾
¾ Grocery
Grocery StoresStores- 30,000
30,000 to
to 65,000
65,000
¾
¾ Restaurants
Restaurants 3,000
3,000 –– 6,000+
6,000+ SF
SF
¾
¾ Quick
Quick Service
Service food
food 1,200
1,200 –– 3,500
3,500 SF
SF
The
The following
following location
location suggestions
suggestions were
were
selected
selected because
because they
they sit
sit at
at high
high traffic
traffic
intersections
and
are
highly
visible
intersections and are highly visible areas.
areas.
Area
Area of
of North
North Main
Main Plaza
Plaza
The
The North
North Main
Main Plaza
Plaza area
area
benefits
benefits from
from an
an already
already
developed
developed commercial
commercial node.
node. By
By
implementing
commercial
implementing commercial use
use
across
across the
the street
street from
from the
the
plaza,
plaza, this
this area
area could
could be
be further
further
developed.
developed.
Source: SC DOT; Economics Research Associates, 2008.
ERA No: 17467 – Columbia N. Main Street Retail Analysis
Page 16
Recommendation 1: North Main Plaza Analysis
North
North Main
Main Plaza
Plaza
North
North Main
Main Plaza
Plaza
The
The North
North Main
Main Plaza
Plaza serves
serves as
as aa good
good example
example
of
of how
how retail
retail can
can be
be clustered
clustered in
in with
with aa mix
mix
of
uses.
Although
the
Plaza
is
not
fully
of uses. Although the Plaza is not fully
tenanted,
tenanted, itit gives
gives aa good
good example
example to
to model
model
future
future retail
retail development
development from.
from. The
The Plaza
Plaza
has
has aa mix
mix of
of retail
retail and
and office
office functions
functions which
which
work
work well
well given
given the
the limited
limited area
area retail
retail
support.
support. The
The development
development of
of future
future retail
retail
space
should
be
mixed
with
either
a
space should be mixed with either a
residential
residential or
or office
office component.
component.
The
The major
major strength
strength of
of the
the North
North Main
Main Plaza
Plaza is
is
that
that itit clusters
clusters retail
retail and
and office
office functions.
functions. ItIt
has
has good
good street
street frontage
frontage and
and aa store
store design
design
that
that allows
allows customers
customers who
who are
are drawn
drawn to
to one
one
store
ease
in
visiting
others.
Office
space
on
store ease in visiting others. Office space on
the
the upper
upper levels
levels does
does not
not break
break up
up the
the
continuity
continuity of
of retail
retail downstairs.
downstairs.
Directly
Directly Across
Across Street
Street from
from North
North Main
Main Plaza
Plaza
The
The weaknesses
weaknesses of
of the
the North
North Main
Main Plaza
Plaza are
are
that
that itit has
has poor
poor street
street signage,
signage, and
and lacks
lacks aa
coordinated
mix
of
tenants
that
will
coordinated mix of tenants that will work
work
well
well in
in providing
providing aa mixed
mixed retail
retail experience
experience
for
for shoppers
shoppers and
and co-tenancy
co-tenancy advantages
advantages for
for
tenants
tenants
The
The North
North Main
Main Plaza
Plaza overall
overall needs
needs aa
merchandising
merchandising plan
plan for
for the
the space
space to
to
maximize
maximize the
the performance
performance of
of the
the cluster.
cluster.
ERA No: 17467 – Columbia N. Main Street Retail Analysis
Page 17
Recommendation 2: Attraction of National Franchise Tenants
Recommendation
Recommendation 22
AA new
new retail
retail cluster
cluster development
development would
would work
work
best
best with
with the
the inclusion
inclusion of
of aa national
national
franchise
franchise business.
business. The
The benefit
benefit of
of including
including
such
a
business
would
be
in
that
it
such a business would be in that it would
would
serve
serve as
as an
an ‘anchor’,
‘anchor’, attracting
attracting customers
customers to
to
aa node
where
they
would
then
shop
at
the
node where they would then shop at the
other
other offerings.
offerings.
Tennant
Tennant Example
Example 1:
1: Chili’s/Applebee's
Chili’s/Applebee's (6,500
(6,500 sq
sq ft)
ft)
AA Chili’s,
Chili’s, which
which normally
normally required
required about
about 3,600
3,600 sq
sq ft,
ft, and
and would
would work
work
well
as
a
national
franchise
tenant
because
it
would
be
able
to
well as a national franchise tenant because it would be able to
expand
expand both
both the
the lunch
lunch and
and dinner
dinner opportunities
opportunities at
at aa mid
mid priced
priced
restaurant,
and
because
it
would
be
able
to
attract
consumers
restaurant, and because it would be able to attract consumers to
to aa
neighborhood
neighborhood style
style shopping
shopping center.
center.
Tennant
Tennant Example
Example 2:
2: Supermarket
Supermarket (( 25,000
25,000 sq
sq ft)
ft)
Although
Although the
the grocer
grocer requires
requires more
more than
than the
the
suggested
suggested new
new supportable
supportable square
square feet
feet of
of
retail,
retail, itit would
would most
most likely
likely work
work in
in the
the area
area
given
the
lack
of
grocer
options.
25,000
given the lack of grocer options. 25,000
square
square feet
feet is
is aa small
small store,
store, but
but many
many
national
and
regional
chains
are
national and regional chains are introducing
introducing
small
small store
store concepts.
concepts.
ERA’s
ERA’s interviews
interviews of
of neighborhood
neighborhood business
business owners
owners and
and residents
residents
revealed
revealed the
the N.
N. Main
Main street
street is
is in
in need
need of
of aa mid-size
mid-size supermarket.
supermarket. AA
small
small supermarket
supermarket which
which requires
requires about
about 20,000
20,000 sq
sq ft
ft to
to operate,
operate,
could
could serve
serve as
as an
an anchor
anchor at
at aa community
community shopping
shopping center
center while
while
locally
owned
businesses
served
as
in-line
tenants.
locally owned businesses served as in-line tenants.
The
The tenant
tenant examples
examples were
were chosen
chosen simply
simply to
to
illustrate
illustrate the
the type
type of
of businesses
businesses that
that would
would
work
work well
well in
in aa small
small shopping
shopping center
center along
along
the
corridor.
The
specific
business
serve
the corridor. The specific business serve as
as
examples
examples only.
only.
There
There is
is aa need
need for
for aa full
full service
service bank
bank to
to satisfy
satisfy the
the basic
basic financial
financial
services
needs
of
residents..
Neighborhoods
which
only
services needs of residents.. Neighborhoods which only offer
offer check
check
cashing
cashing operators
operators suffer
suffer because
because the
the cost
cost of
of banking
banking for
for residents
residents
cuts
cuts into
into what
what is
is available
available to
to spend
spend on
on retail
retail or
or other
other needs.
needs. AA major
major
bank
branch
would
occupy
about
4,000
sq
ft.
bank branch would occupy about 4,000 sq ft.
Tennant
Tennant Example
Example 3:
3: Full-Service
Full-Service Bank
Bank Branch
Branch Location
Location (4,000
(4,000 sq
sq ft)
ft)
In-line
In-line Tenants
Tenants (( 2,500
2,500 –– 7,500
7,500 sq
sq ft)
ft)
In-line
In-line tenants
tenants would
would consist
consist of
of locally
locally owned
owned businesses
businesses and
and
organizations
organizations which
which would
would offer
offer aa variety
variety of
of services
services and
and goods
goods to
to
customers
who
are
drawn
to
the
commercial
nodes
by
the
national
customers who are drawn to the commercial nodes by the national
franchise
franchise tenants.
tenants.
ERA No: 17467 – Columbia N. Main Street Retail Analysis
Page 18
No Change Outcomes
No
No Change
Change Outcomes
Outcomes
Given
Given that
that no
no action
action is
is taken
taken along
along the
the corridor
corridor to
to improve
improve the
the retail
retail environment
environment
there
there are
are aa variety
variety of
of possible
possible future
future outcomes
outcomes within
within the
the next
next 55 –– 77 years.
years. These
These
outcomes
are
summarized
in
worst
case
(sales
volume
decline),
baseline
(sales
outcomes are summarized in worst case (sales volume decline), baseline (sales
volume
volume stays
stays same)
same) and
and best
best case
case (sales
(sales volume
volume and
and retail
retail offerings
offerings increase).
increase).
Current
Current Sales
Sales Volume
Volume Decline
Decline
The
The retail
retail sales
sales volume
volume along
along the
the corridor
corridor could
could decrease
decrease due
due to
to better
better retail
retail offering
offering elsewhere
elsewhere
in
the
city.
Given
that
there
is
a
high
amount
of
leakage
already
along
the
corridor,
in the city. Given that there is a high amount of leakage already along the corridor, residents
residents
may
may start
start spending
spending more
more along
along other
other corridors
corridors or
or downtown.
downtown. Factors
Factors which
which will
will influence
influence this
this
outcome
are
the
competitive
environment,
or
retail
offerings
elsewhere,
as
well
as
the
future
outcome are the competitive environment, or retail offerings elsewhere, as well as the future
programming
programming and
and offerings
offerings of
of the
the N.
N. Main
Main corridor.
corridor.
Current
Current Sales
Sales Volume
Volume Stays
Stays Same
Same
Given
Given no
no intervention
intervention or
or improvement,
improvement, the
the current
current sales
sales volume
volume could
could stay
stay the
the same.
same. Many
Many
businesses
businesses along
along the
the corridor
corridor have
have aa long
long time
time and
and dedicated
dedicated customer
customer base.
base. Given
Given that
that these
these
customers
customers continue
continue their
their long
long time
time support
support of
of the
the N.
N. Main
Main street
street retail
retail and
and new
new customers
customers
are
not
attracted,
the
retail
sales
volume
will
stay
the
same.
are not attracted, the retail sales volume will stay the same.
Increasing
Increasing Property
Property Values
Values Catalyze
Catalyze Retail
Retail Investment/Spending
Investment/Spending Increase
Increase
As
As neighborhood
neighborhood incomes
incomes transition
transition upwards,
upwards, retail
retail spending
spending availability
availability for
for the
the area
area will
will also
also
increase.
In
order
for
retail
spending
to
increase
along
N.
Main
St,
the
retail
offerings
would
increase. In order for retail spending to increase along N. Main St, the retail offerings would
also
also have
have to
to grow
grow and
and the
the quality
quality of
of offering
offering would
would need
need to
to improve,
improve, as
as no
no suitable
suitable offerings
offerings
currently
exist.
currently exist.
ERA No: 17467 – Columbia N. Main Street Retail Analysis
Page 19
North Main Street Summary
Summary
Summary of
of Recommendation
Recommendation 11
Summary
Summary
North
North Main
Main Street
Street offers
offers aa robust
robust retail
retail offering.
offering. There
There is
is
market
market support
support for
for new
new retail
retail development,
development, in
in order
order
to
to best
best capture
capture the
the support,
support, certain
certain retail
retail types
types and
and
formats
should
be
targeted.
The
North
Main
plaza
formats should be targeted. The North Main plaza
serves
serves aa good
good example
example of
of the
the future
future type
type of
of retail
retail
clustering
which
has
a
place
along
the
corridor.
clustering which has a place along the corridor. New
New
national
national franchise
franchise tenants
tenants could
could accommodate
accommodate gaps
gaps
in
in offering
offering types
types and
and would
would attract
attract customers
customers to
to the
the
corridor
through
an
established
brand.
corridor through an established brand.
The
The North
North Main
Main residential
residential market
market for
for retail
retail is
is changing
changing
as
the
household
incomes
and
demographics
as the household incomes and demographics
diversify.
diversify. With
With the
the infusion
infusion of
of more
more affluent
affluent
households,
the
North
Main
corridor
households, the North Main corridor can
can begin
begin to
to
support
support retail
retail operators
operators offering
offering aa wider
wider range
range of
of
price
price points
points and
and aa broader
broader range
range of
of store
store types
types and
and
merchandise.
In
order
to
capture
the
potential
merchandise. In order to capture the potential
purchases
purchases of
of the
the more
more affluent
affluent households,
households, retail
retail
offerings
will
need
to
change
their
merchandising,
offerings will need to change their merchandising,
visual
visual appeal
appeal and
and product/service
product/service mix.
mix.
ERA No: 17467 – Columbia N. Main Street Retail Analysis
To
To maximize
maximize the
the productivity
productivity and
and increase
increase consumer
consumer
traffic,
traffic, North
North Main
Main Street
Street would
would benefit
benefit from
from clustering
clustering
retail
offerings
within
a
merchandising
strategy
retail offerings within a merchandising strategy for
for each
each
cluster.
Concentrations
of
retail
along
North
Main
cluster. Concentrations of retail along North Main
Street
Street allows
allows for
for differentiation
differentiation by
by area
area so
so that
that the
the
offerings
can
appeal
to
specific
needs
of
adjacent
offerings can appeal to specific needs of adjacent
residential
residential areas.
areas.
Summary
Summary of
of Recommendation
Recommendation 22
Given
Given the
the competition
competition in
in the
the area,
area, N.
N. Main
Main Street
Street would
would
benefit
benefit from
from the
the drawing
drawing power
power of
of national
national and
and
regional
regional franchise
franchise tenants
tenants complimented
complimented by
by the
the unique
unique
qualities
of
local
independent
operators.
The
betterqualities of local independent operators. The betterknown
known operators
operators need
need to
to serve
serve as
as anchors
anchors and
and traffic
traffic
generators
for
the
local
small
businesses.
By
using
generators for the local small businesses. By using
quality
quality operators,
operators, the
the image
image of
of N.
N. Main
Main can
can improve.
improve.
Payday
Payday and
and predatory
predatory lenders
lenders detract
detract from
from the
the area.
area.
Summary
Summary of
of no
no change
change
Without
Without some
some change
change in
in the
the quality
quality of
of retail
retail offerings
offerings
along
the
North
main
corridor,
it
is
likely
that
along the North main corridor, it is likely that the
the area
area
will
will continue
continue to
to under-perform
under-perform as
as aa retail
retail corridor
corridor and
and
present
the
same
blighted
appearance.
This
situation
present the same blighted appearance. This situation
undervalues
undervalues the
the businesses,
businesses, properties
properties and
and adjacent
adjacent
residential
residential and
and detracts
detracts from
from the
the quality
quality of
of the
the nearby
nearby
neighborhoods.
neighborhoods.
Page 20
N. Main Street Trade Area Summary
Main Street Corridor Trade Area Overview
Summary Demographics
2007
2012
CAGR
Real Growth Rate
Population
Households
Average Houshold Income
Median Household Income
Total Area Income
7,458
3,201
$41,922
$30,163
$312,654,276
7,503
3,292
$48,389
$34,600
$363,062,667
0.12%
0.56%
2.91%
2.78%
3.03%
0.76%
2007
2012
848
10,704
9,396
10,155
Workforce
Businesses
Employees
Office Employees
Demand (Retail Spending Potential)
Residents
Employees
Students
Inflow
Total
Retail
$12,291,200
$8,967,542
$61,380
$122,760
$21,442,882
Supply (Retail Sales)
Retail (Select Categories)
Apparel & Apparel Services
HH Furnishings & Electronics
Personal Care & Services
Food and Beverage
Total
2007
F&B
$7,002,029
$10,801,642
$105,600
$158,400
$18,067,671
2012
Retail
F&B
$12,765,641
$7,272,308
$9,692,257
$11,674,579
$61,380
$105,600
$122,760
$158,400
$ 22,642,038 $ 19,210,887
2007
$6,138,000
$780,000
$966,000
$4,392,000
$5,280,000
$11,418,000
Source: ESRI Business Information Solutions; InfoUSA; Economics Research Associates, 2008.
ERA No: 17467 – Columbia N. Main Street Retail Analysis
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N. Main Street Trade Area Summary
Area Leakage/Retail Gap (2007)
Retail
Food and Beverage
Leakage/Surplus Factor
-$15,304,882
-$12,787,671
-55.2%
-$0.55491
-$0.54771
Additional 2012 Retail Capture
Low Estimate ~
High Estimate ~
Retail
6%
8%
Additional Market Area Captured
Expenditures
Low
High
Residents
Employees
Students
Inflow
Subtotal
$765,938
$581,535
$3,683
$7,366
$1,358,522
$1,021,251
$775,381
$4,910
$9,821
$1,811,363
Food and Beverage
Residents
Employees
Students
Inflow
Subtotal
Low
$436,338
$700,475
$6,336
$9,504
$1,152,653
High
$581,785
$933,966
$8,448
$12,672
$1,536,871
Source: ESRI Business Information Solutions; InfoUSA; Economics Research Associates, 2008.
ERA No: 17467 – Columbia N. Main Street Retail Analysis
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Productivity
$ 200 PSF
$ 300 PSF
Supportable New
Square Feet
Low
High
6,793
9,057
Low
High
3,842
5,123
General Limiting Conditions
Every reasonable effort has been made to ensure that the data contained in this report are accurate as of
the date of this study; however, factors exist that are outside the control of Economics Research
Associates and that may affect the estimates and/or projections noted herein. This study is based on
estimates, assumptions and other information developed by Economics Research Associates from its
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ERA No: 17467 – Columbia N. Main Street Retail Analysis
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