2008 Monticello Road Retail Analysis
Columbia, SC
An Analysis of the Monticello Road Retail Corridor in
Columbia, SC
April 2008
Monticello Road Corridor Overview
Monticello
Monticello Road
Road Overview
Overview
The
The Monticello
Monticello Road
Road corridor
corridor extends
extends from
from the
the
intersection
intersection of
of Monticello
Monticello Road
Road and
and North
North Main
Main
Street
to
I-20.
This
corridor
is
roughly
1.7
miles
Street to I-20. This corridor is roughly 1.7 miles
long.
long.
The
The limited
limited retail
retail offerings
offerings along
along the
the Monticello
Monticello Road
Road
corridor
corridor are
are local
local serving;
serving; they
they rely
rely on
on nearby
nearby
residents,
residents, workers,
workers, and
and students
students as
as aa primary
primary
customer
customer base.
base.
Although
Although itit contains
contains retail,
retail, ERA’s
ERA’s analysis
analysis and
and
visitation
visitation of
of the
the site
site found
found that
that the
the corridor
corridor is
is
largely
largely residential
residential in
in nature
nature and
and cannot
cannot support
support
retail
in
many
sections.
Any
future
retail
retail in many sections. Any future retail
development
development should
should take
take the
the residential
residential character
character
into
consideration.
into consideration.
The
The primary
primary retail
retail segments
segments which
which this
this study
study analyzes
analyzes
are
apparel
and
apparel
services,
household
are apparel and apparel services, household
furnishings
furnishings and
and electronics,
electronics, personal
personal care
care and
and
services,
services, and
and eating
eating and
and drinking
drinking places.
places. These
These
categories
were
chosen
in
order
to
focus
the
categories were chosen in order to focus the
analysis
analysis and
and because
because these
these are
are the
the retail
retail categories
categories
which
would
best
further
enhance
the
current
which would best further enhance the current retail
retail
environment.
environment.
ERA No: 17467 – Monticello Road Retail Analysis
Page1
Methodology/Term Definitions
Summary
Summary
In
In order
order to
to calculate
calculate the
the retail
retail potential
potential of
of the
the
Monticello
Monticello Road
Road corridor,
corridor, ERA
ERA has
has analyzed
analyzed
the
the demand
demand generated
generated by
by several
several market
market
segments.
segments. These
These segments
segments are
are residents,
residents,
office
office employees,
employees, and
and visitors
visitors and
and passers
passers
through
–
referred
to
as
‘inflow’,
all
through – referred to as ‘inflow’, all within
within
the
the primary
primary trade
trade area.
area. Visitors
Visitors and
and Inflow
Inflow
are
are calculated
calculated as
as secondary
secondary market
market
segments.
segments.
The
The purpose
purpose of
of this
this study
study is
is to
to analyze
analyze retail
retail
sales,
sales, demand,
demand, and
and opportunities
opportunities along
along the
the
corridor
corridor in
in order
order to
to suggest
suggest ways
ways through
through
which
the
retail
environment
can
be
which the retail environment can be
improved.
improved. Because
Because of
of the
the limited
limited retail
retail
offerings
and
consumer
markets
in
offerings and consumer markets in the
the City
City
of
of Columbia,
Columbia, this
this may
may entail
entail drawing
drawing
potential
potential sales
sales from
from the
the other
other corridors
corridors or
or
from
the
downtown
area.
from the downtown area.
The
The organization
organization of
of this
this study
study is
is an
an analysis
analysis of
of
each
demand
segment,
calculation
of
the
each demand segment, calculation of the
sales
sales gap
gap and
and capture
capture rate,
rate, aa critical
critical
analysis
of
the
existing
retail
environment,
analysis of the existing retail environment,
and
and suggestions
suggestions on
on how
how the
the retail
retail
environment
environment can
can be
be improved.
improved.
ERA No: 17467 – Monticello Road Retail Analysis
Capture
Capture Rate
Rate
Capture
Capture rates
rates identify
identify what
what portion
portion of
of demand
demand potential
potential (total
(total annual
annual
spending
spending potential
potential of
of all
all market
market segments
segments in
in the
the select
select retail
retail
categories.)
categories.) are
are captured
captured in
in aa given
given area
area (i.e.
(i.e. aa capture
capture rate
rate of
of 10%
10%
suggests
suggests that
that $10
$10 of
of every
every $100
$100 in
in spending
spending potential
potential is
is spent
spent in
in aa
given
area).
Given
that
people
typically
shop
at
a
variety
of
given area). Given that people typically shop at a variety of
locations,
locations, aa 100%
100% capture
capture rate
rate is
is not
not realistic.
realistic.
Leakage/Surplus
Leakage/Surplus Factor
Factor
The
The Leakage/Surplus
Leakage/Surplus factor
factor presents
presents aa snapshot
snapshot of
of retail
retail opportunity.
opportunity.
This
metric
is
a
measure
of
the
relationship
between
supply
This metric is a measure of the relationship between supply and
and
demand
demand that
that ranges
ranges from
from +100
+100 (total
(total leakage)
leakage) to
to -100
-100 (total
(total
surplus).
surplus). AA positive
positive value
value represents
represents ‘leakage’
‘leakage’ or
or retail
retail opportunity
opportunity
inside
the
trade
area.
A
negative
value
represent
a
surplus
inside the trade area. A negative value represent a surplus of
of retail
retail
sales,
sales, aa market
market where
where customer
customer are
are drawn
drawn in
in from
from outside
outside the
the trade
trade
area.
This
analysis
is
included
to
present
all
opportunities
in
a
area. This analysis is included to present all opportunities in a
standardized
standardized fashion.
fashion.
Retail
Retail Categories
Categories
This
This study
study focuses
focuses on
on retail
retail categories
categories of
of Apparel
Apparel and
and Apparel
Apparel Services,
Services,
Household
Household Furnishings
Furnishings and
and Electronics,
Electronics, Personal
Personal Care
Care and
and Services,
Services,
and
and Eating
Eating and
and Drinking
Drinking Places.
Places. These
These categories
categories were
were selected
selected as
as
they
are
typically
local
serving
and
make
up
the
bulk
of
retail
they are typically local serving and make up the bulk of retail
demand.
demand. Monticello
Monticello Road
Road has
has many
many businesses,
businesses, such
such as
as autoautooriented
businesses,
which
would
skew
the
analysis
to
show
oriented businesses, which would skew the analysis to show aa retail
retail
environment
environment with
with aa very
very high
high retail
retail surplus
surplus and
and little
little opportunity
opportunity
for
for new
new retail
retail development.
development.
Page2
Methodology
Summary
Summary
The
The primary
primary trade
trade area
area contains
contains the
the main
main
consumer
consumer markets
markets for
for the
the corridor
corridor and
and is
is
derived
derived from
from aa half
half mile
mile buffer
buffer around
around the
the
corridor.
corridor.
¾
¾ Resident
Resident Market
Market data
data is
is for
for households
households
within
the
primary
trade
area
within the primary trade area (the
(the dashed
dashed
line).
line). These
These households
households are
are the
the main
main
customer
customer base
base for
for the
the nearby
nearby retail.
retail.
¾
¾ Employee
Employee Market
Market data
data is
is from
from all
all
businesses
and
organizations
along
businesses and organizations along the
the
corridor
corridor (the
(the blue
blue points).
points). This
This includes
includes
non-profit
non-profit and
and government
government employment.
employment.
¾
¾ Inflow,
Inflow, calculated
calculated as
as aa percentage
percentage of
of sales,
sales,
is
is spending
spending from
from outside
outside the
the trade
trade area.
area.
¾
¾ Sales
Sales data
data is
is the
the estimated
estimated sales
sales or
or assets
assets
of
of retail
retail business
business along
along the
the corridor
corridor (the
(the
green
points)
in
the
select
categories.
green points) in the select categories.
Source: ESRI Business Information Solutions; Economics Research Associates, 2008.
ERA No: 17467 – Monticello Road Retail Analysis
Page3
Monticello Road Corridor: Residential Market
Demographic Summary
Summary
Summary
The
The Monticello
Monticello Road
Road Corridor
Corridor residential
residential market
market is
is
comprised
comprised of
of persons
persons within
within aa half
half mile
mile of
of the
the
corridor.
corridor.
The
The residential
residential market
market is
is comprised
comprised of
of 3,585
3,585 persons
persons in
in
1,457
households.
The
population
is
expected
to
grow
1,457 households. The population is expected to grow
by
by 95
95 persons
persons and
and 40
40 households
households by
by 2012.
2012. This
This shift
shift
will
will occur
occur as
as vacant
vacant lots
lots in
in the
the neighborhoods
neighborhoods
surrounding
the
corridor
a
revitalized
surrounding the corridor a revitalized and
and new
new families
families
begin
begin to
to occupy
occupy them.
them.
The
The average
average household
household income
income in
in the
the area
area is
is expected
expected to
to
increase
increase by
by $6,533
$6,533 from
from $40,232
$40,232 to
to $46,765
$46,765 from
from
2007
2007 –– 2012.
2012. This
This represents
represents aa compound
compound annual
annual
growth
growth rate
rate of
of 3.07%
3.07% and,
and, when
when adjusted
adjusted for
for
inflation,
inflation, aa real
real growth
growth rate
rate of
of .9%.
.9%.
3,585
3,680
0.52%
2007 Households
2012 Households
CAGR 07-12
1,457
1,497
0.54%
2007 Avg Household Income
2012 Avg Household Income
CAGR 07-12
Real Growth Rate 1/
$40,232
$46,765
3.06%
0.90%
2007 Median Household Income
2012 Median Household Income
CAGR 07-12
$29,248
$34,022
3.07%
Total Area Income 2007
Total Area Income 2012
CAGR 07-12
The
The total
total area
area income
income is
is expected
expected to
to increase
increase by
by $27.85M
$27.85M
from
from 2007
2007 to
to 2012.
2012. This
This corresponds
corresponds to
to an
an increase
increase in
in
tax
base,
dollars
available
to
be
invested
in
homes,
and
tax base, dollars available to be invested in homes, and
dollars
dollars available
available to
to be
be spent
spent on
on local
local retail.
retail.
Annual
Annual residential
residential spending
spending in
in the
the primary
primary retail
retail
categories
categories and
and at
at eating
eating and
and drinking
drinking places
places is
is
estimated
at
$11.5M
and
$6.3M
respectively.
estimated at $11.5M and $6.3M respectively.
Source: ESRI Business Information Solutions; Economics Research Associates, 2008.
ERA No: 17467 – Monticello Road Retail Analysis
2007 Population
2012 Population
CAGR 07-12
Page4
2007 Annual Retail Expenditures,
Select Categories
Retail in Select Categories
Apparel & Apparel Services
HH Furnishings & Electronics
Personal Care & Services
Eating & Drinking Places
Subtotal
$144,231,720
$172,085,847
3.59%
Annual Market
Area Retail
Expenditures
3,659 $
5,330,755
1,384 $
2,016,852
1,529 $
2,227,025
746 $
1,086,878
2,029 $
2,955,978
5,688 $
8,286,733
Avg HH Retail
Expenditures
$
$
$
$
$
$
Total
Total Demand
Demand Potential:
Potential: $8.29M
$8.29M
Monticello Road: Residential Market Demographics
Summary
Summary
Racial
Racial Distribution
Distribution
In
In order
order to
to plan
plan proper
proper retail
retail programming,
programming, aa cursory
cursory
knowledge
knowledge of
of the
the market
market demographics
demographics are
are important.
important.
White - 14.1%
Different
Different demographic
demographic groups
groups and
and sub-groups
sub-groups have
have
different
different retail
retail spending
spending and
and dining
dining preferences.
preferences. For
For
example,
the
retail
spending
needs
and
habits
of
persons
example, the retail spending needs and habits of persons
under
under 18
18 will
will be
be different
different than
than those
those for
for persons
persons over
over 65.
65.
Black - 82.3%
American Indian,
Eskimo, Aleut - 0.2%
Asian or Pacific Islander
- 0.2%
The
The trade
trade area
area population
population is
is 3,585
3,585 persons
persons in
in 1,457
1,457
households.
households.
Hispanic Origin - 1.8%
Other - 1.3%
Income
Income Distribution
Distribution
Age
Age Distribution
Distribution
EmptyNester
18%
16%
14%
12%
25%
Retirees
Female
Female -- 54%
54%
Median
Median Age
Age –– 38.3
38.3
Median
Median –– $28,292
$28,292
Mean
Mean -- $39,382
$39,382
20%
15%
10%
8%
10%
6%
Total
Total HHs
HHs –– 4,698
4,698
4%
5%
2%
0%
%
0%
0-4
5-9
10 14
15 19
20 24
25 34
35 44
45 54
55 65
65 75
75+
7%
7%
7%
8%
7%
11%
13%
15%
12%
6%
7%
ERA No: 17467 – Monticello Road Retail Analysis
Page5
%
< $15,000
$15,000 $24,999
$25,000 $34,999
$35,000 $49,999
22%
19%
17%
13%
$50,000 $75,000 +
$74,999
16%
13%
Monticello Road Corridor: Employee Market
Total Businesses
Total Employment
84
465
BUSINESSES
Number Percent
EMPLOYMENT
Number Percent
Agriculture & Mining
Mining
Utilities
Construction
Manufacturing
Wholesale Trade
Retail Trade
Transportation & Warehousing
Information
Finance & Insurance
Central Bank/Credit Intermediation & Related Activities
Insurance Carriers & Related Activities; Funds, Trusts & Other
financial Vehicles
Real Estate, Rental & Leasing
Professional, Scientific & Tech Services
Legal Services
Management of companies & Enterprises
Administrative & Support & Waste Management &
Remediation Services
0
0
0
8
4
3
7
2
2
1
0
0
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
9.5%
4.8%
3.6%
8.3%
2.4%
2.4%
1.2%
0.0%
0.0%
0
0
0
30
6
41
27
1
1
3
0
0
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
6.5%
1.3%
8.8%
5.8%
0.2%
0.2%
0.6%
0.0%
0.0%
3
1
1
0
3
3.6%
1.2%
1.2%
0.0%
3.6%
7
5
5
0
8
1.5%
1.1%
1.1%
0.0%
1.7%
Educational Services
Health care & Social Assistance
Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation
Accommodation and Food Services
Accommodation
Food Services and Drinking Places
Other Services (except Public Administration)
Automotive Repair & Maintenance
Public Administration
Unclassified Establishments
1
17
3
1
0
1
27
3
1
0
1.2%
20.2%
3.6%
1.2%
0.0%
1.2%
32.1%
3.6%
1.2%
0.0%
130
105
7
15
0
15
79
13
0
0
28.0%
22.6%
1.5%
3.2%
0.0%
3.2%
17.0%
2.8%
0.0%
0.0%
Officer Worker Spending
Retail in Select Categories
Eating & Drinking Places
Lunch
Dinner/Drinks
Total
Summary
Summary
The
The Monticello
Monticello Road
Road Corridor
Corridor employee
employee market
market is
is
comprised
of
employees
from
businesses
within
comprised of employees from businesses within
aa half
half mile
mile of
of the
the corridor.
corridor.
Employee
Employee spending
spending is
is estimated
estimated to
to be
be generated
generated
primarily
primarily from
from office
office workers
workers in
in the
the fields
fields of
of
Retail
Trade,
Finance
&
Insurance,
Professional,
Retail Trade, Finance & Insurance, Professional,
Scientific
Scientific &
& Tech
Tech Services,
Services, Educational
Educational Services,
Services,
Health
Health Care
Care &
& Social
Social Services,
Services, and
and Public
Public
Administration.
Administration. This
This represents
represents 67%
67% of
of total
total
employment.
employment.
The
The largest
largest employment
employment concentrations
concentrations in
in the
the
Monticello
Monticello Road
Road primary
primary area
area are
are in
in Health
Health Care
Care
and
Social
Services
and
Public
Administration.
and Social Services and Public Administration.
The
The employee
employee market
market is
is derived
derived from
from all
all business
business
within
the
trade
area,
this
differs
from
within the trade area, this differs from the
the retail
retail
sales
sales which
which only
only analyzes
analyzes business
business directly
directly along
along
the
the corridor.
corridor.
2007 Expenditures
$
$
$
$
$
264,369
318,439
292,512
25,927
582,808
Total
Total Demand
Demand Potential:
Potential: $583,000
$583,000
Source: ESRI Business Information Solutions; ICSC; InfoUSA; Economics Research Associates, 2008.
ERA No: 17467 – Monticello Road Retail Analysis
Page6
Monticello Road Corridor: Inflow Market
Secondary
Secondary Market:
Market: Inflow
Inflow
The
The Monticello
Monticello Road
Road inflow
inflow market
market is
is comprised
comprised of
of consumers
consumers who
who do
do not
not live
live or
or work
work in
in the
the primary
primary
trade
trade area
area .. Unlike
Unlike other
other markets
markets in
in which
which spending
spending potential
potential is
is estimated,
estimated, the
the inflow
inflow market
market is
is
estimated
to
generally
account
for
2%
of
sales
in
the
selected
retail
categories.
Since
the
inflow
estimated to generally account for 2% of sales in the selected retail categories. Since the inflow
market
market has
has no
no geographical
geographical constrains
constrains itit therefore
therefore theoretically
theoretically has
has unlimited
unlimited demand
demand potential.
potential.
Inflow
demand
will
increase
as
better,
and
more
visible,
retail
offerings
are
placed
along
Inflow demand will increase as better, and more visible, retail offerings are placed along the
the
corridor.
corridor.
An
An important
important Inflow
Inflow sales
sales generator
generator for
for this
this corridor
corridor is
is the
the local
local high
high school
school which
which generates
generates retail
retail
demand
through
the
students
and
through
the
faculty
and
staff.
demand through the students and through the faculty and staff.
General
General Inflow
Inflow Market
Market (2%
(2% of
of total
total sales)
sales)
Other
Other Inflow
Inflow Demand
Demand is
is Generate
Generate by:
by:
¾
¾ Business
Business Visitors.
Visitors.
¾
¾ Passing
Passing through
through traffic.
traffic.
¾
¾ Visitors
Visitors to
to persons
persons living
living within
within the
the primary
primary trade
trade
area.
area.
¾
¾ Persons
Persons from
from outside
outside the
the primary
primary trade
trade area.
area.
General
General inflow
inflow spending
spending is
is estimated
estimated to
to account
account for
for
2%
2% of
of retail
retail sales
sales and
and 3%
3% of
of sales
sales at
at eating
eating and
and
drinking
drinking places.
places.
Total
Total Estimated
Estimated Spending:
Spending: $190,000
$190,000
ERA No: 17467 – Monticello Road Retail Analysis
Page7
Monticello Road Corridor: Estimated 2007 Retail Sales Volume
Summary
Summary
The
The total
total sales
sales volume
volume of
of $5.7M
$5.7M represents
represents
the
the net
net revenue
revenue of
of all
all business
business along
along the
the
corridor.
corridor.
Retail
Retail Sales
Sales
7
$5,697,000
Total Businesses:
Total Sales Volume
Retail Trade
Motor Vehicle and Parts Dealers
Furniture & Home Furnishings Stores
Electronics & Appliance Stores
Bldg Material and Garden Equipment and Supplies Dealers
Food & Beverage Stores
Health & Personal Care Stores
Gasoline Stations
Clothing and Clothing Accessories Stores
Sport Goods, Hobby, Book, & Music Stores
General Merchandise Stores
Miscellaneous Store Retailers
Nonstore Retailers
BUSINESSES
Number
7
2
0
0
0
3
0
0
0
1
1
0
0
SALES VOLUME (EST)
2006 Sales Total
5,697
$1,547
$0
$0
$0
$3,037
$0
$0
$0
$399
$714
$0
$0
Sales
Sales Volume
Volume in
in Selected
Selected
Categories:
$5.7M
Categories: $5.7M
For
For this
this study
study the
the analysis
analysis is
is focused
focused on
on the
the
retail
categories
of
Apparel
and
Apparel
retail categories of Apparel and Apparel
Services,
Services, Household
Household Furnishings
Furnishings and
and
Electronics,
Electronics, Personal
Personal Care
Care and
and Services,
Services,
and
and in
in Eating
Eating and
and Drinking
Drinking Places.
Places.
Eating
Eating and
and Drinking
Drinking places
places consist
consist of
of
restaurants
and
bars
as
compared
restaurants and bars as compared to
to Food
Food
&
& Beverage
Beverage stores
stores which
which are
are grocery
grocery and
and
liquor
liquor stores.
stores.
Food
Food &
& Beverage
Beverage stores
stores are
are not
not counted
counted in
in
the
select
retail
categories
because
the
the select retail categories because the
select
select retail
retail categories
categories include
include only
only Eating
Eating
and
and Drinking
Drinking Places
Places –– which
which are
are
restaurants
restaurants as
as compared
compared to
to Food
Food &
&
Beverage
Beverage stores
stores which
which would
would include
include
grocery
grocery stores.
stores. The
The study
study area
area contains
contains no
no
eating
eating and
and drinking
drinking places.
places.
Total
Total retail
retail sales
sales volume
volume is
is $5.7M
$5.7M
Source: ESRI Business Information Solutions; InfoUSA; Economics Research Associates, 2008.
ERA No: 17467 – Monticello Road Retail Analysis
Page8
Retail Environment: 2007 Retail Leakage in Select Categories
Monticello
Monticello Road
Road Trade
Trade Area
Area Demand
Demand Potential
Potential
The
The trade
trade area
area demand
demand potential
potential is
is the
the sum
sum of
of residential
residential demand,
demand, employee
employee demand,
demand, and
and sales
sales to
to the
the
secondary
secondary inflow
inflow market.
market. Total
Total demand
demand potential
potential represents
represents the
the buying
buying power
power from
from the
the local
local market
market
which
which support
support the
the Monticello
Monticello Road
Road corridor.
corridor. The
The actual
actual sales
sales are
are less
less than
than the
the total
total demand
demand potential
potential
since
100%
of
total
demand
is
not
captured
along
the
corridor
–
the
difference
is
the
retail
leakage.
since 100% of total demand is not captured along the corridor – the difference is the retail leakage.
Residents
Residents (54%)
(54%)
Employees
Employees (45%)
(45%)
Inflow
Inflow (.38%)
(.38%)
Residential
Residential demand,
demand, aa
primary
demand
primary demand
segment,
segment, is
is estimated
estimated to
to
generate
$533M
in
retail
generate $533M in retail
demand
demand and
and $2.96M
$2.96M in
in
demand
for
eating
and
demand for eating and
drinking
drinking places.
places.
Local
Local Employee
Employee demand,
demand, aa
primary
demand
primary demand
segment,
segment, is
is estimated
estimated to
to
generate
$264K
in
retail
generate $264K in retail
demand
demand and
and $293K
$293K in
in
demand
demand for
for eating
eating and
and
drinking
places.
drinking places.
Inflow
Inflow Demand,
Demand, aa
secondary
secondary demand
demand
segment,
segment, is
is estimated
estimated to
to
generate
$0
in
retail
generate $0 in retail
demand
demand and
and $303K
$303K in
in
demand
demand for
for eating
eating and
and
drinking
places.
Inflow
drinking places. Inflow
demand
demand is
is estimated
estimated as
as
aa percentage
of
sales.
percentage of sales.
Total
Total Demand
Demand Potential:
Potential: $9.17M
$9.17M
Total
Total Sales
Sales Volume:
Volume: $3.03M
$3.03M
Leakage:
Leakage: ($6.14M)
($6.14M)
Source: ESRI Business Information Solutions; InfoUSA; Economics Research Associates, 2008.
ERA No: 17467 – Monticello Road Retail Analysis
Page9
Market
Market
Penetration/Capture
Penetration/Capture
Rate:
Rate: 33%
33%
Corridor Retail Assessment: Strengths, Weaknesses, Needs/Concerns
Overall
Overall Retail
Retail Demand
Demand
Total
Total retail
retail demand
demand from
from all
all market
market segments
segments in
in all
all
spending
categories
is
$17.86M,
the
select
categories
spending categories is $17.86M, the select categories
represent
represent 46%
46% of
of retail
retail demand
demand across
across all
all categories.
categories.
Retail
Retail Assessment
Assessment
The
The overall
overall assessment
assessment of
of Monticello
Monticello Road
Road retail
retail is
is that
that itit
is
is weak
weak as
as aa retail
retail corridor
corridor compared
compared to
to other
other corridors
corridors
in
the
city
–
such
as
the
nearby
N.
Main
Corridor.
in the city – such as the nearby N. Main Corridor. With
With
exceptions
exceptions such
such as
as the
the school
school and
and aa few
few sporadic
sporadic
businesses,
businesses, the
the corridor
corridor is
is largely
largely residential.
residential.
The
The corridor
corridor historically
historically performed
performed well
well as
as aa retail
retail
corridor;
however
as
businesses
moved
either
corridor; however as businesses moved either closer
closer
into
into the
the city,
city, or
or followed
followed residents
residents into
into the
the suburbs,
suburbs, itit
has
has become
become increasingly
increasingly sparse
sparse in
in its
its offerings.
offerings. There
There
are
few
adequate
opportunities
to
build
retail
at
are few adequate opportunities to build retail at the
the
mass
mass necessary
necessary to
to transform
transform the
the corridor
corridor into
into aa
competitive
competitive retail
retail corridor.
corridor.
With
With retail
retail leakage
leakage of
of $6.13M
$6.13M annually,
annually, aa demand
demand
potential
of
$9.17M
and
sales
of
$3.04M,
potential of $9.17M and sales of $3.04M, the
the area
area has
has
aa leakage/surplus
leakage/surplus factor
factor of
of -.50.
-.50. This
This indicates
indicates aa
leakage
leakage of
of retail
retail sales
sales where
where aa large
large portion
portion of
of persons
persons
are
going
to
other
areas
to
make
purchases.
With
are going to other areas to make purchases. With
proper
proper improvement
improvement and
and programming
programming the
the capture
capture
can
be
increased,
however
the
highly
residential
can be increased, however the highly residential
environment
environment will
will greatly
greatly limit
limit future
future retail
retail growth.
growth.
ERA No: 17467 – Monticello Road Retail Analysis
Market
Market Strengths
Strengths
¾
¾ None
None in
in the
the sense
sense of
of aa retail
retail corridor
corridor –– strengths
strengths are
are in
in
being
an
improving
residential
area.
being an improving residential area.
¾
¾ The
The few
few stores
stores along
along the
the corridor
corridor do
do well,
well, but
but itit is
is highly
highly
unlikely
given
the
competitive
nature
of
the
city
that
unlikely given the competitive nature of the city that new
new
retailers
will
be
willing
to
invest
in
the
corridor.
retailers will be willing to invest in the corridor.
Market
Market Weaknesses
Weaknesses
¾
¾ Very
Very weak
weak as
as aa retail
retail corridor
corridor –– has
has very
very few
few businesses,
businesses,
and
few
opportunities
and
space
for
growth,
and few opportunities and space for growth, likely
likely will
will
not
not retain
retain retail
retail character
character as
as corridors
corridors strengthen
strengthen
elsewhere
elsewhere in
in the
the city.
city.
¾
¾ Residential
Residential areas
areas are
are often
often inappropriate
inappropriate and
and unsuitable
unsuitable
for
for retail.
retail. Monticello
Monticello Road
Road will
will be
be able
able to
to support
support aa few
few
stores,
most
in
the
convenience
retail
category,
however
stores, most in the convenience retail category, however aa
full
full retail
retail corridor
corridor is
is not
not recommended
recommended for
for consideration
consideration
along
this
corridor.
along this corridor.
Future
Future Needs/Concerns
Needs/Concerns
¾
¾ Maintain
Maintain existing
existing retail
retail opportunities
opportunities at
at current
current quality
quality
levels.
levels.
¾
¾ Any
Any new
new retail
retail development
development should
should occupy
occupy and
and work
work to
to
improve
improve existing
existing vacant
vacant retail
retail space.
space.
¾
¾ Business
Business moving
moving to
to stronger
stronger retail
retail markets
markets in
in other
other
corridors
corridors in
in the
the city,
city, downtown,
downtown, or
or outside
outside of
of the
the city
city
limits.
limits.
Page10
Retail and Corridor Assessment
Existing
Existing Retail
Retail
Existing
Existing retail
retail along
along the
the corridor
corridor is
is in
in the
the form
form of
of small
small to
to
mid-sized
mid-sized convenience
convenience grocery
grocery oriented
oriented stores.
stores. These
These
offer
offer basic
basic goods
goods to
to residents.
residents.
Existing
Existing Retail
Retail
Existing
Existing retail
retail offerings
offerings are
are primarily
primarily located
located on
on small
small lots
lots
with
with parking
parking which
which allows
allows customers
customers to
to easily
easily stop
stop and
and
go.
The
Family
Dollar
was
the
largest
of
offerings.
go. The Family Dollar was the largest of offerings.
Local
Local School
School
The
The local
local school
school will
will bring
bring students
students and
and faculty
faculty into
into the
the
corridor
who
will
be
potential
customers.
corridor who will be potential customers.
ERA No: 17467 – Monticello Road Retail Analysis
Sidewalks
Sidewalks
Much
Much of
of the
the corridor
corridor is
is not
not suitable
suitable for
for retail
retail –– the
the land
land
grade
grade and
and existing
existing residential
residential uses
uses will
will limit
limit retail
retail
development.
development.
Page11
Existing Retail Assessment
Existing
Existing Retail
Retail
Existing
Existing retail
retail along
along the
the Monticello
Monticello Road
Road Corridor
Corridor is
is comprised
comprised of
of business
business which
which generally
generally fall
fall into
into one
one of
of three
three
categories:
food
and
beverage;
sport
goods,
hobby,
book,
and
music
stores;
and
general
merchandise
stores.
categories: food and beverage; sport goods, hobby, book, and music stores; and general merchandise stores. Auto
Auto
oriented
oriented business,
business, which
which account
account for
for 27%
27% of
of retail
retail sales
sales along
along the
the corridor,
corridor, were
were not
not analyzed
analyzed in
in this
this study
study
Food
Food and
and Beverage
Beverage
Mista
Mista Browns
Browns serves
serves as
as aa great
great example
example of
of
aa locally
owned
success
story.
ERA’s
locally owned success story. ERA’s
interview
interview with
with Mr.
Mr. Brown,
Brown, the
the owner,
owner,
found
found that
that he
he has
has maintained
maintained success
success
through
offering
good
quality
quick
through offering good quality quick
food
food to
to local
local residents
residents as
as well
well as
as
grocery
retail
which
people
from
grocery retail which people from
outside
outside of
of the
the trade
trade area
area will
will come
come to
to
purchase.
purchase.
The
The A-1
A-1 Food
Food Store/convenience
Store/convenience shop
shop and
and
the
the One
One Stop
Stop Food
Food Mart
Mart are
are small
small
convenience
oriented
groceries
convenience oriented groceries with
with
limited
limited offering.
offering. They
They provide
provide
inexpensive
inexpensive convenience
convenience goods
goods to
to
residents
residents and
and are
are successful
successful because
because
they
they rely
rely on
on frequent
frequent spending
spending instead
instead
of
large
spending.
of large spending.
Sport
Sport Goods,
Goods, Hobby,
Hobby, Book,
Book,
and
and Music
Music Stores
Stores
The
The Kwanza
Kwanza House
House Bookstore
Bookstore
and
and Cultural
Cultural Center
Center is
is aa
culturally
themed
bookstore
culturally themed bookstore
which
which has
has been
been open
open along
along
the
the corridor
corridor since
since 2000.
2000. Part
Part
of
the
success
and
longevity
of the success and longevity
of
of this
this locally
locally owned
owned
business
can
be
business can be attributed
attributed to
to
its
its specific
specific targeting
targeting to
to the
the
local
local market
market as
as well
well as
as that
that
itit engages
the
community
engages the community
and
and garnering
garnering support
support
beyond
retail
sales.
beyond retail sales.
7% of
retail sales
53% of
retail sales
ERA No: 17467 – Monticello Road Retail Analysis
Page12
General
General Merchandise
Merchandise Stores
Stores
The
The Family
Family Dollar
Dollar is
is the
the only
only
general
merchandise
store
general merchandise store
along
along the
the corridor.
corridor. Family
Family Dollar
Dollar
is
a
chain
which
has
built
its
is a chain which has built its
reputation
reputation and
and success
success by
by
offering
a
variety
of
low
offering a variety of low priced
priced
retail
retail goods.
goods. This
This store
store works
works
well
well along
along the
the Monticello
Monticello Road
Road
corridor
because
its
retail
mix
corridor because its retail mix
means
means that
that itit relies
relies on
on small
small
frequent
spending
instead
frequent spending instead of
of
higher
higher spending
spending which
which would
would
likely
likely not
not be
be captured.
captured.
13% of
retail sales
Strategic Assessment and Recommendations
Strategic
Strategic Needs
Needs Assessment
Assessment
ERA’s
ERA’s analysis
analysis of
of Monticello
Monticello Road
Road corridor
corridor found
found
that
that itit will
will not
not be
be able
able to
to greatly
greatly increase
increase its
its retail
retail
capture.
The
current
captured
demand
is
driven
capture. The current captured demand is driven
by
by residents
residents and
and persons
persons associated
associated with
with the
the local
local
school
doing
convenience
and
quick
shopping.
school doing convenience and quick shopping.
Other
Other retail,
retail, such
such as
as at
at the
the local
local meat
meat market,
market,
have
have success
success that
that will
will be
be hard
hard to
to duplicate.
duplicate. Future
Future
retail
development
would
do
best
by
focusing
retail development would do best by focusing on
on
convenience
convenience oriented
oriented retail,
retail, although
although there
there are
are
already
already aa suitable
suitable amount
amount of
of offerings
offerings which
which have
have
cornered
this
market.
cornered this market.
Existing
Existing retail
retail offerings
offerings in
in the
the downtown
downtown shopping
shopping
core,
along
with
the
other
retail
corridors
core, along with the other retail corridors and
and the
the
shopping
shopping malls
malls make
make for
for aa competitive
competitive retail
retail
environment.
environment. Developing
Developing Monticello
Monticello Road
Road further
further
as
as aa retail
retail corridor
corridor would
would entail
entail pulling
pulling sales
sales from
from
other
areas
in
the
city.
This
would
have
the
effect
other areas in the city. This would have the effect
of
of diluting
diluting the
the sales
sales of
of across
across all
all corridors
corridors and
and
being
being overall
overall determinative
determinative to
to the
the cities
cities retail
retail
environment.
For
these
reasons
ERA
suggest
environment. For these reasons ERA suggest that
that
focusing
focusing on
on convenience
convenience retail
retail and
and quick
quick food
food
would
would be
be in
in the
the overall
overall best
best interest
interest of
of the
the city
city
and
and would
would best
best take
take into
into consideration
consideration the
the interinterconnectedness
connectedness of
of retail
retail offerings
offerings in
in an
an urban
urban
landscape.
landscape.
ERA No: 17467 – Monticello Road Retail Analysis
Recommendation
Recommendation 1:
1: Infill
Infill Retail
Retail Development
Development
New
New businesses
businesses should
should be
be encouraged
encouraged to
to located
located in
in empty
empty
retail
retail space
space and
and should
should be
be programmed
programmed to
to best
best succeed
succeed in
in
this
market.
ERA’s
professional
expertise
and
analysis
this market. ERA’s professional expertise and analysis
suggests
suggests that
that new
new retail
retail would
would work
work best
best ifif itit focused
focused on
on
convenience
retail
or
quick
food
and
beverage;
other
retail
convenience retail or quick food and beverage; other retail
offerings
offerings would
would likely
likely struggle
struggle against
against the
the competition
competition that
that
they
they face
face in
in other
other corridors
corridors and
and from
from downtown.
downtown.
Recommendation
Recommendation 1:
1: Small
Small Business
Business Owner
Owner
Assistance/Association
Assistance/Association
New
New and
and existing
existing retail
retail would
would benefit
benefit from
from aa business
business owners
owners
association.
association. Roles
Roles which
which such
such an
an association
association could
could play
play
would
would be
be in
in helping
helping businesses
businesses with
with advertising,
advertising,
merchandise
merchandise mix,
mix, proper
proper signage,
signage, and
and façade
façade upkeep
upkeep to
to
maintain
and
improve
the
overall
quality
of
retail
along
maintain and improve the overall quality of retail along the
the
corridor.
corridor.
Page13
Recommendation 1: Infill Retail Development
Competitive
Competitive Context
Context
Recommendation
Recommendation 11
ERA
ERA does
does not
not anticipate
anticipate increasing
increasing retail
retail
demand
demand along
along the
the corridor,
corridor, however
however ifif new
new
retail
is
developed,
it
should
focus
on
retail is developed, it should focus on
occupying
occupying vacated
vacated retail
retail space
space with
with basic
basic
quick
quick consumer
consumer services
services and
and shopping.
shopping. The
The
corridor
is
primarily
non-retail
in
nature
corridor is primarily non-retail in nature and
and
the
the new
new retail
retail would
would face
face stiff
stiff competition
competition
from
from existing
existing retail
retail elsewhere
elsewhere throughout
throughout the
the
city.
city. New
New infill
infill retail
retail would
would work
work best
best ifif itit
were
were either
either quick
quick service
service food
food or
or aa small
small
convenience/
grocery
store.
These
new
convenience/ grocery store. These new stores
stores
would
would face
face competition
competition from
from the
the retail
retail of
of the
the
same
type
overviewed
in
the
existing
retail
same type overviewed in the existing retail
slide.
slide.
New
New stores
stores which
which would
would work
work would
would typically
typically
occupy
occupy space
space of
of the
the following
following size:
size:
The
The following
following tenant
tenant examples
examples are
are meant
meant to
to illustrate
illustrate what
what works
works
along
along the
the corridor
corridor and
and why
why –– not
not to
to suggest
suggest new
new retail
retail
development.
ERA’s
examination
of
the
corridor
along
development. ERA’s examination of the corridor along with
with
consideration
consideration of
of the
the competitive
competitive context
context in
in which
which itit is
is situated
situated
suggests
suggests that
that new
new retail
retail will
will likely
likely not
not be
be successful
successful because
because the
the
types
types of
of retail
retail which
which would
would be
be successful
successful currently
currently exist
exist in
in the
the
market.
market. The
The following
following examples
examples were
were chosen
chosen based
based on
on what
what
residents
seem
to
request
the
most
during
our
interviews
residents seem to request the most during our interviews with
with
persons
persons involved
involved in
in the
the communities
communities along
along the
the corridor.
corridor.
Tennant
Tennant Example
Example 1:
1: Drug
Drug Store
Store
AA small
small drug
drug store
store with
with pharmacy
pharmacy would
would provide
provide aa service
service to
to the
the
community
community that
that is
is needed
needed as
as the
the population
population ages.
ages. The
The pharmacy
pharmacy
would
would be
be complemented
complemented by
by offering
offering other
other goods,
goods, with
with aa business
business
model
similar
to
CVS
or
RiteAid.
model similar to CVS or RiteAid.
¾
¾ Personal
Personal Care
Care 2,000
2,000 –– 10,000
10,000 SF
SF
¾
¾ Small
Small Grocery/Drug
Grocery/Drug Store
Store 2,000
2,000 to
to 10,000
10,000
¾
¾ Quick
Quick Service
Service food
food 1,200
1,200 –– 3,500
3,500 SF
SF
¾
¾ Dry
Dry Cleaner
Cleaner Substation
Substation 1,250
1,250 –– 1,500
1,500 SF
SF
ERA No: 17467 – Monticello Road Retail Analysis
Tennant
Tennant Example
Example 2:
2: Dry
Dry Cleaner
Cleaner
AA dry
dry cleaner
cleaner substation
substation would
would not
not necessarily
necessarily have
have to
to do
do the
the
cleaning
on
site
which
typically
requires
more
space
for
the
cleaning on site which typically requires more space for the
machines
machines necessary.
necessary. AA substation
substation would
would serve
serve as
as aa branch
branch of
of
another
local
dry
cleaner
and
serve
as
a
drop
off
point
from
another local dry cleaner and serve as a drop off point from which
which
clothes
clothes are
are taken
taken to
to another
another site
site for
for processing.
processing.
Page14
Recommendation 2: Small Business Owners Association/Assistance
Recommendation
Recommendation 22
New
New small
small business
business owners
owners often
often lack
lack the
the
knowledge
to
compete
in
a
retail
knowledge to compete in a retail
environment
environment dominated
dominated by
by franchises
franchises
which
benefits
from
the
resources
which benefits from the resources of
of aa
large
large corporation.
corporation. AA business
business owners
owners
association
will
help
existing
businesses
association will help existing businesses to
to
stay
stay competitive
competitive against
against competition
competition from
from
franchised
franchised stores
stores which
which benefit
benefit from
from aa
larger
resource
pool.
larger resource pool.
AA small
small business
business owners
owners association
association would
would
work
to
assist
its
members
to
maintain
work to assist its members to maintain and
and
improve
improve the
the overall
overall quality
quality of
of retail
retail along
along
the
the corridor.
corridor. This
This association
association would
would offer
offer
educational
educational services
services to
to small
small business
business
owners
owners in
in order
order to
to ensure
ensure their
their ongoing
ongoing
success.
Such
educational
services
success. Such educational services would
would
include
include advising
advising small
small business
business owners
owners on
on
merchandise
mix,
advertising,
signage,
and
merchandise mix, advertising, signage, and
strategy.
strategy.
ERA No: 17467 – Monticello Road Retail Analysis
Assistance
Assistance Example
Example 1:
1: Small
Small Business
Business Owner
Owner Workshops
Workshops
Workshops
Workshops administered
administered by
by aa small
small business
business owners
owners association
association
would
bring
in
experienced
retailers
and
retail
professional
would bring in experienced retailers and retail professional to
to
teach
teach classes
classes on
on retail
retail strategies
strategies for
for small
small business
business owners.
owners. These
These
workshops,
administer
by
the
city,
would
ideally
pay
for
workshops, administer by the city, would ideally pay for
themselves
themselves through
through the
the additional
additional tax
tax revenue
revenue they
they generate
generate by
by
increasing
increasing the
the sales
sales volume
volume of
of the
the local
local businesses.
businesses. This
This has
has aa
twofold
benefit
for
the
city
in
that
it
increases
tax
revenue
twofold benefit for the city in that it increases tax revenue and
and
also
also increases
increases money
money going
going towards
towards locally
locally owned
owned businesses
businesses
which
which will
will have
have more
more cycled
cycled through
through the
the local
local economy
economy compared
compared
to
to franchise
franchise stores
stores headquartered
headquartered outside
outside of
of Columbia.
Columbia.
Tennant
Tennant Example
Example 2:
2: City
City Administered
Administered (Forgivable)
(Forgivable) Business
Business
Improvement
Loans
Improvement Loans
City
City or
or County
County administer
administer small
small business
business owner
owner loans
loans would
would make
make
available
capital
for
improvements
that
many
businesses
do
available capital for improvements that many businesses do not
not
have.
have. These
These loans
loans could
could be
be forgivable
forgivable ifif aa certain
certain criteria
criteria is
is met,
met,
and
and ifif not
not possible
possible they
they should
should carry
carry little
little or
or no
no interest
interest in
in order
order to
to
best
benefit
business
owners.
Again
the
benefit
for
the
City
or
best benefit business owners. Again the benefit for the City or
County
County comes
comes from
from an
an increase
increase in
in sales
sales tax
tax as
as sales
sales volumes
volumes
increase.
increase.
Page15
Monticello Road Analysis Summary
Summary
Summary of
of Recommendation
Recommendation 11
Summary
Summary
ERA’s
ERA’s analysis
analysis of
of Monticello
Monticello Road
Road found
found that
that the
the corridor
corridor is
is
for
for aa large
large part
part not
not an
an ideal
ideal location
location for
for new
new retail.
retail. There
There
is
is aa lack
lack of
of population
population density
density to
to support
support much
much more
more
retail,
retail, and
and with
with other
other retail
retail corridors
corridors and
and the
the downtown
downtown
currently
currently being
being the
the focus
focus of
of city
city efforts,
efforts, there
there will
will be
be few
few
market
gaps
which
new
stores
can
fill.
The
immediate
market gaps which new stores can fill. The immediate
future
future of
of this
this corridor
corridor should
should consist
consist of
of residential
residential
development
and
revitalization
in
order
to
development and revitalization in order to build
build the
the
market
market support
support necessary
necessary for
for new
new retail.
retail.
New
New retail
retail along
along Monticello
Monticello Road
Road should
should offer
offer basic
basic
quick
services
to
residents
and
commuters.
A
quick services to residents and commuters. A drug
drug
store,
store, barber,
barber, or
or dry
dry cleaner
cleaner substation,
substation, are
are
recommended
recommended as
as they
they are
are what
what residents
residents request
request
most.
In
order
to
be
successful
Farrow
Road
most. In order to be successful Farrow Road retail
retail
should
should be
be carefully
carefully selected
selected to
to meet
meet gaps
gaps in
in current
current
demand
demand and
and supply
supply as
as there
there is
is little
little space
space in
in these
these
gaps
gaps available.
available.
Summary
Summary of
of Recommendation
Recommendation 22
AA small
small business
business owners
owners association
association could
could serve
serve the
the
role
role of
of providing
providing existing
existing and
and new
new businesses
businesses with
with
the
knowledge
and
resources
they
need
to
be
the knowledge and resources they need to be
successful.
successful. The
The benefit
benefit of
of providing
providing such
such services
services to
to
the
the city
city and
and county
county will
will be
be an
an increase
increase in
in sales
sales tax
tax
collection.
collection.
ERA No: 17467 – Monticello Road Retail Analysis
Page16
Appendix
Monticello Road Corridor Trade Area Overview
Summary Demographics
2007
2012
CAGR
Real Growth Rate
Population
Households
Average Houshold Income
Median Household Income
Total Area Income
3,585
1,457
$40,232
$29,248
$144,231,720
3,680
1,497
$46,765
$34,022
$172,085,847
0.52%
0.54%
3.06%
3.07%
3.59%
0.90%
Workforce
2007
2012
Businesses
Employees
Office Employees
84
465
277
307
Demand (Retail Spending Potential)
Residents
Employees
Inflow
Total
Supply (Retail Sales)
Retail (Select Categories)
Apparel & Apparel Services
HH Furnishings & Electronics
Personal Care & Services
Food and Beverage
Total
Area Leakage/Retail Gap (2007)
Retail
Food and Beverage
Leakage/Surplus Factor
Retail
$5,330,755
$264,369
$0
$5,595,124
2007
F&B
$2,955,978
$318,439
$303,700
$3,578,118
2012
Retail
F&B
$5,576,307
$3,092,140
$293,115
$353,065
$0
$303,700
$
5,869,422 $ 3,748,905
2007
$0
$0
$0
$0
$3,037,000
$3,037,000
-$5,595,124
-$541,118
-50.3%
Source: ESRI Business Information Solutions; InfoUSA; Economics Research Associates, 2008.
ERA No: 17467 – Monticello Road Retail Analysis
Page17
General Limiting Conditions
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the date of this study; however, factors exist that are outside the control of Economics Research
Associates and that may affect the estimates and/or projections noted herein. This study is based on
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ERA No: 17467 – Monticello Road Retail Analysis
Page18