2008 Monticello Road Retail Analysis Columbia, SC An Analysis of the Monticello Road Retail Corridor in Columbia, SC April 2008 Monticello Road Corridor Overview Monticello Monticello Road Road Overview Overview The The Monticello Monticello Road Road corridor corridor extends extends from from the the intersection intersection of of Monticello Monticello Road Road and and North North Main Main Street to I-20. This corridor is roughly 1.7 miles Street to I-20. This corridor is roughly 1.7 miles long. long. The The limited limited retail retail offerings offerings along along the the Monticello Monticello Road Road corridor corridor are are local local serving; serving; they they rely rely on on nearby nearby residents, residents, workers, workers, and and students students as as aa primary primary customer customer base. base. Although Although itit contains contains retail, retail, ERA’s ERA’s analysis analysis and and visitation visitation of of the the site site found found that that the the corridor corridor is is largely largely residential residential in in nature nature and and cannot cannot support support retail in many sections. Any future retail retail in many sections. Any future retail development development should should take take the the residential residential character character into consideration. into consideration. The The primary primary retail retail segments segments which which this this study study analyzes analyzes are apparel and apparel services, household are apparel and apparel services, household furnishings furnishings and and electronics, electronics, personal personal care care and and services, services, and and eating eating and and drinking drinking places. places. These These categories were chosen in order to focus the categories were chosen in order to focus the analysis analysis and and because because these these are are the the retail retail categories categories which would best further enhance the current which would best further enhance the current retail retail environment. environment. ERA No: 17467 – Monticello Road Retail Analysis Page1 Methodology/Term Definitions Summary Summary In In order order to to calculate calculate the the retail retail potential potential of of the the Monticello Monticello Road Road corridor, corridor, ERA ERA has has analyzed analyzed the the demand demand generated generated by by several several market market segments. segments. These These segments segments are are residents, residents, office office employees, employees, and and visitors visitors and and passers passers through – referred to as ‘inflow’, all through – referred to as ‘inflow’, all within within the the primary primary trade trade area. area. Visitors Visitors and and Inflow Inflow are are calculated calculated as as secondary secondary market market segments. segments. The The purpose purpose of of this this study study is is to to analyze analyze retail retail sales, sales, demand, demand, and and opportunities opportunities along along the the corridor corridor in in order order to to suggest suggest ways ways through through which the retail environment can be which the retail environment can be improved. improved. Because Because of of the the limited limited retail retail offerings and consumer markets in offerings and consumer markets in the the City City of of Columbia, Columbia, this this may may entail entail drawing drawing potential potential sales sales from from the the other other corridors corridors or or from the downtown area. from the downtown area. The The organization organization of of this this study study is is an an analysis analysis of of each demand segment, calculation of the each demand segment, calculation of the sales sales gap gap and and capture capture rate, rate, aa critical critical analysis of the existing retail environment, analysis of the existing retail environment, and and suggestions suggestions on on how how the the retail retail environment environment can can be be improved. improved. ERA No: 17467 – Monticello Road Retail Analysis Capture Capture Rate Rate Capture Capture rates rates identify identify what what portion portion of of demand demand potential potential (total (total annual annual spending spending potential potential of of all all market market segments segments in in the the select select retail retail categories.) categories.) are are captured captured in in aa given given area area (i.e. (i.e. aa capture capture rate rate of of 10% 10% suggests suggests that that $10 $10 of of every every $100 $100 in in spending spending potential potential is is spent spent in in aa given area). Given that people typically shop at a variety of given area). Given that people typically shop at a variety of locations, locations, aa 100% 100% capture capture rate rate is is not not realistic. realistic. Leakage/Surplus Leakage/Surplus Factor Factor The The Leakage/Surplus Leakage/Surplus factor factor presents presents aa snapshot snapshot of of retail retail opportunity. opportunity. This metric is a measure of the relationship between supply This metric is a measure of the relationship between supply and and demand demand that that ranges ranges from from +100 +100 (total (total leakage) leakage) to to -100 -100 (total (total surplus). surplus). AA positive positive value value represents represents ‘leakage’ ‘leakage’ or or retail retail opportunity opportunity inside the trade area. A negative value represent a surplus inside the trade area. A negative value represent a surplus of of retail retail sales, sales, aa market market where where customer customer are are drawn drawn in in from from outside outside the the trade trade area. This analysis is included to present all opportunities in a area. This analysis is included to present all opportunities in a standardized standardized fashion. fashion. Retail Retail Categories Categories This This study study focuses focuses on on retail retail categories categories of of Apparel Apparel and and Apparel Apparel Services, Services, Household Household Furnishings Furnishings and and Electronics, Electronics, Personal Personal Care Care and and Services, Services, and and Eating Eating and and Drinking Drinking Places. Places. These These categories categories were were selected selected as as they are typically local serving and make up the bulk of retail they are typically local serving and make up the bulk of retail demand. demand. Monticello Monticello Road Road has has many many businesses, businesses, such such as as autoautooriented businesses, which would skew the analysis to show oriented businesses, which would skew the analysis to show aa retail retail environment environment with with aa very very high high retail retail surplus surplus and and little little opportunity opportunity for for new new retail retail development. development. Page2 Methodology Summary Summary The The primary primary trade trade area area contains contains the the main main consumer consumer markets markets for for the the corridor corridor and and is is derived derived from from aa half half mile mile buffer buffer around around the the corridor. corridor. ¾ ¾ Resident Resident Market Market data data is is for for households households within the primary trade area within the primary trade area (the (the dashed dashed line). line). These These households households are are the the main main customer customer base base for for the the nearby nearby retail. retail. ¾ ¾ Employee Employee Market Market data data is is from from all all businesses and organizations along businesses and organizations along the the corridor corridor (the (the blue blue points). points). This This includes includes non-profit non-profit and and government government employment. employment. ¾ ¾ Inflow, Inflow, calculated calculated as as aa percentage percentage of of sales, sales, is is spending spending from from outside outside the the trade trade area. area. ¾ ¾ Sales Sales data data is is the the estimated estimated sales sales or or assets assets of of retail retail business business along along the the corridor corridor (the (the green points) in the select categories. green points) in the select categories. Source: ESRI Business Information Solutions; Economics Research Associates, 2008. ERA No: 17467 – Monticello Road Retail Analysis Page3 Monticello Road Corridor: Residential Market Demographic Summary Summary Summary The The Monticello Monticello Road Road Corridor Corridor residential residential market market is is comprised comprised of of persons persons within within aa half half mile mile of of the the corridor. corridor. The The residential residential market market is is comprised comprised of of 3,585 3,585 persons persons in in 1,457 households. The population is expected to grow 1,457 households. The population is expected to grow by by 95 95 persons persons and and 40 40 households households by by 2012. 2012. This This shift shift will will occur occur as as vacant vacant lots lots in in the the neighborhoods neighborhoods surrounding the corridor a revitalized surrounding the corridor a revitalized and and new new families families begin begin to to occupy occupy them. them. The The average average household household income income in in the the area area is is expected expected to to increase increase by by $6,533 $6,533 from from $40,232 $40,232 to to $46,765 $46,765 from from 2007 2007 –– 2012. 2012. This This represents represents aa compound compound annual annual growth growth rate rate of of 3.07% 3.07% and, and, when when adjusted adjusted for for inflation, inflation, aa real real growth growth rate rate of of .9%. .9%. 3,585 3,680 0.52% 2007 Households 2012 Households CAGR 07-12 1,457 1,497 0.54% 2007 Avg Household Income 2012 Avg Household Income CAGR 07-12 Real Growth Rate 1/ $40,232 $46,765 3.06% 0.90% 2007 Median Household Income 2012 Median Household Income CAGR 07-12 $29,248 $34,022 3.07% Total Area Income 2007 Total Area Income 2012 CAGR 07-12 The The total total area area income income is is expected expected to to increase increase by by $27.85M $27.85M from from 2007 2007 to to 2012. 2012. This This corresponds corresponds to to an an increase increase in in tax base, dollars available to be invested in homes, and tax base, dollars available to be invested in homes, and dollars dollars available available to to be be spent spent on on local local retail. retail. Annual Annual residential residential spending spending in in the the primary primary retail retail categories categories and and at at eating eating and and drinking drinking places places is is estimated at $11.5M and $6.3M respectively. estimated at $11.5M and $6.3M respectively. Source: ESRI Business Information Solutions; Economics Research Associates, 2008. ERA No: 17467 – Monticello Road Retail Analysis 2007 Population 2012 Population CAGR 07-12 Page4 2007 Annual Retail Expenditures, Select Categories Retail in Select Categories Apparel & Apparel Services HH Furnishings & Electronics Personal Care & Services Eating & Drinking Places Subtotal $144,231,720 $172,085,847 3.59% Annual Market Area Retail Expenditures 3,659 $ 5,330,755 1,384 $ 2,016,852 1,529 $ 2,227,025 746 $ 1,086,878 2,029 $ 2,955,978 5,688 $ 8,286,733 Avg HH Retail Expenditures $ $ $ $ $ $ Total Total Demand Demand Potential: Potential: $8.29M $8.29M Monticello Road: Residential Market Demographics Summary Summary Racial Racial Distribution Distribution In In order order to to plan plan proper proper retail retail programming, programming, aa cursory cursory knowledge knowledge of of the the market market demographics demographics are are important. important. White - 14.1% Different Different demographic demographic groups groups and and sub-groups sub-groups have have different different retail retail spending spending and and dining dining preferences. preferences. For For example, the retail spending needs and habits of persons example, the retail spending needs and habits of persons under under 18 18 will will be be different different than than those those for for persons persons over over 65. 65. Black - 82.3% American Indian, Eskimo, Aleut - 0.2% Asian or Pacific Islander - 0.2% The The trade trade area area population population is is 3,585 3,585 persons persons in in 1,457 1,457 households. households. Hispanic Origin - 1.8% Other - 1.3% Income Income Distribution Distribution Age Age Distribution Distribution EmptyNester 18% 16% 14% 12% 25% Retirees Female Female -- 54% 54% Median Median Age Age –– 38.3 38.3 Median Median –– $28,292 $28,292 Mean Mean -- $39,382 $39,382 20% 15% 10% 8% 10% 6% Total Total HHs HHs –– 4,698 4,698 4% 5% 2% 0% % 0% 0-4 5-9 10 14 15 19 20 24 25 34 35 44 45 54 55 65 65 75 75+ 7% 7% 7% 8% 7% 11% 13% 15% 12% 6% 7% ERA No: 17467 – Monticello Road Retail Analysis Page5 % < $15,000 $15,000 $24,999 $25,000 $34,999 $35,000 $49,999 22% 19% 17% 13% $50,000 $75,000 + $74,999 16% 13% Monticello Road Corridor: Employee Market Total Businesses Total Employment 84 465 BUSINESSES Number Percent EMPLOYMENT Number Percent Agriculture & Mining Mining Utilities Construction Manufacturing Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation & Warehousing Information Finance & Insurance Central Bank/Credit Intermediation & Related Activities Insurance Carriers & Related Activities; Funds, Trusts & Other financial Vehicles Real Estate, Rental & Leasing Professional, Scientific & Tech Services Legal Services Management of companies & Enterprises Administrative & Support & Waste Management & Remediation Services 0 0 0 8 4 3 7 2 2 1 0 0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 9.5% 4.8% 3.6% 8.3% 2.4% 2.4% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0 0 0 30 6 41 27 1 1 3 0 0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 6.5% 1.3% 8.8% 5.8% 0.2% 0.2% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 3 1 1 0 3 3.6% 1.2% 1.2% 0.0% 3.6% 7 5 5 0 8 1.5% 1.1% 1.1% 0.0% 1.7% Educational Services Health care & Social Assistance Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation Accommodation and Food Services Accommodation Food Services and Drinking Places Other Services (except Public Administration) Automotive Repair & Maintenance Public Administration Unclassified Establishments 1 17 3 1 0 1 27 3 1 0 1.2% 20.2% 3.6% 1.2% 0.0% 1.2% 32.1% 3.6% 1.2% 0.0% 130 105 7 15 0 15 79 13 0 0 28.0% 22.6% 1.5% 3.2% 0.0% 3.2% 17.0% 2.8% 0.0% 0.0% Officer Worker Spending Retail in Select Categories Eating & Drinking Places Lunch Dinner/Drinks Total Summary Summary The The Monticello Monticello Road Road Corridor Corridor employee employee market market is is comprised of employees from businesses within comprised of employees from businesses within aa half half mile mile of of the the corridor. corridor. Employee Employee spending spending is is estimated estimated to to be be generated generated primarily primarily from from office office workers workers in in the the fields fields of of Retail Trade, Finance & Insurance, Professional, Retail Trade, Finance & Insurance, Professional, Scientific Scientific & & Tech Tech Services, Services, Educational Educational Services, Services, Health Health Care Care & & Social Social Services, Services, and and Public Public Administration. Administration. This This represents represents 67% 67% of of total total employment. employment. The The largest largest employment employment concentrations concentrations in in the the Monticello Monticello Road Road primary primary area area are are in in Health Health Care Care and Social Services and Public Administration. and Social Services and Public Administration. The The employee employee market market is is derived derived from from all all business business within the trade area, this differs from within the trade area, this differs from the the retail retail sales sales which which only only analyzes analyzes business business directly directly along along the the corridor. corridor. 2007 Expenditures $ $ $ $ $ 264,369 318,439 292,512 25,927 582,808 Total Total Demand Demand Potential: Potential: $583,000 $583,000 Source: ESRI Business Information Solutions; ICSC; InfoUSA; Economics Research Associates, 2008. ERA No: 17467 – Monticello Road Retail Analysis Page6 Monticello Road Corridor: Inflow Market Secondary Secondary Market: Market: Inflow Inflow The The Monticello Monticello Road Road inflow inflow market market is is comprised comprised of of consumers consumers who who do do not not live live or or work work in in the the primary primary trade trade area area .. Unlike Unlike other other markets markets in in which which spending spending potential potential is is estimated, estimated, the the inflow inflow market market is is estimated to generally account for 2% of sales in the selected retail categories. Since the inflow estimated to generally account for 2% of sales in the selected retail categories. Since the inflow market market has has no no geographical geographical constrains constrains itit therefore therefore theoretically theoretically has has unlimited unlimited demand demand potential. potential. Inflow demand will increase as better, and more visible, retail offerings are placed along Inflow demand will increase as better, and more visible, retail offerings are placed along the the corridor. corridor. An An important important Inflow Inflow sales sales generator generator for for this this corridor corridor is is the the local local high high school school which which generates generates retail retail demand through the students and through the faculty and staff. demand through the students and through the faculty and staff. General General Inflow Inflow Market Market (2% (2% of of total total sales) sales) Other Other Inflow Inflow Demand Demand is is Generate Generate by: by: ¾ ¾ Business Business Visitors. Visitors. ¾ ¾ Passing Passing through through traffic. traffic. ¾ ¾ Visitors Visitors to to persons persons living living within within the the primary primary trade trade area. area. ¾ ¾ Persons Persons from from outside outside the the primary primary trade trade area. area. General General inflow inflow spending spending is is estimated estimated to to account account for for 2% 2% of of retail retail sales sales and and 3% 3% of of sales sales at at eating eating and and drinking drinking places. places. Total Total Estimated Estimated Spending: Spending: $190,000 $190,000 ERA No: 17467 – Monticello Road Retail Analysis Page7 Monticello Road Corridor: Estimated 2007 Retail Sales Volume Summary Summary The The total total sales sales volume volume of of $5.7M $5.7M represents represents the the net net revenue revenue of of all all business business along along the the corridor. corridor. Retail Retail Sales Sales 7 $5,697,000 Total Businesses: Total Sales Volume Retail Trade Motor Vehicle and Parts Dealers Furniture & Home Furnishings Stores Electronics & Appliance Stores Bldg Material and Garden Equipment and Supplies Dealers Food & Beverage Stores Health & Personal Care Stores Gasoline Stations Clothing and Clothing Accessories Stores Sport Goods, Hobby, Book, & Music Stores General Merchandise Stores Miscellaneous Store Retailers Nonstore Retailers BUSINESSES Number 7 2 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 SALES VOLUME (EST) 2006 Sales Total 5,697 $1,547 $0 $0 $0 $3,037 $0 $0 $0 $399 $714 $0 $0 Sales Sales Volume Volume in in Selected Selected Categories: $5.7M Categories: $5.7M For For this this study study the the analysis analysis is is focused focused on on the the retail categories of Apparel and Apparel retail categories of Apparel and Apparel Services, Services, Household Household Furnishings Furnishings and and Electronics, Electronics, Personal Personal Care Care and and Services, Services, and and in in Eating Eating and and Drinking Drinking Places. Places. Eating Eating and and Drinking Drinking places places consist consist of of restaurants and bars as compared restaurants and bars as compared to to Food Food & & Beverage Beverage stores stores which which are are grocery grocery and and liquor liquor stores. stores. Food Food & & Beverage Beverage stores stores are are not not counted counted in in the select retail categories because the the select retail categories because the select select retail retail categories categories include include only only Eating Eating and and Drinking Drinking Places Places –– which which are are restaurants restaurants as as compared compared to to Food Food & & Beverage Beverage stores stores which which would would include include grocery grocery stores. stores. The The study study area area contains contains no no eating eating and and drinking drinking places. places. Total Total retail retail sales sales volume volume is is $5.7M $5.7M Source: ESRI Business Information Solutions; InfoUSA; Economics Research Associates, 2008. ERA No: 17467 – Monticello Road Retail Analysis Page8 Retail Environment: 2007 Retail Leakage in Select Categories Monticello Monticello Road Road Trade Trade Area Area Demand Demand Potential Potential The The trade trade area area demand demand potential potential is is the the sum sum of of residential residential demand, demand, employee employee demand, demand, and and sales sales to to the the secondary secondary inflow inflow market. market. Total Total demand demand potential potential represents represents the the buying buying power power from from the the local local market market which which support support the the Monticello Monticello Road Road corridor. corridor. The The actual actual sales sales are are less less than than the the total total demand demand potential potential since 100% of total demand is not captured along the corridor – the difference is the retail leakage. since 100% of total demand is not captured along the corridor – the difference is the retail leakage. Residents Residents (54%) (54%) Employees Employees (45%) (45%) Inflow Inflow (.38%) (.38%) Residential Residential demand, demand, aa primary demand primary demand segment, segment, is is estimated estimated to to generate $533M in retail generate $533M in retail demand demand and and $2.96M $2.96M in in demand for eating and demand for eating and drinking drinking places. places. Local Local Employee Employee demand, demand, aa primary demand primary demand segment, segment, is is estimated estimated to to generate $264K in retail generate $264K in retail demand demand and and $293K $293K in in demand demand for for eating eating and and drinking places. drinking places. Inflow Inflow Demand, Demand, aa secondary secondary demand demand segment, segment, is is estimated estimated to to generate $0 in retail generate $0 in retail demand demand and and $303K $303K in in demand demand for for eating eating and and drinking places. Inflow drinking places. Inflow demand demand is is estimated estimated as as aa percentage of sales. percentage of sales. Total Total Demand Demand Potential: Potential: $9.17M $9.17M Total Total Sales Sales Volume: Volume: $3.03M $3.03M Leakage: Leakage: ($6.14M) ($6.14M) Source: ESRI Business Information Solutions; InfoUSA; Economics Research Associates, 2008. ERA No: 17467 – Monticello Road Retail Analysis Page9 Market Market Penetration/Capture Penetration/Capture Rate: Rate: 33% 33% Corridor Retail Assessment: Strengths, Weaknesses, Needs/Concerns Overall Overall Retail Retail Demand Demand Total Total retail retail demand demand from from all all market market segments segments in in all all spending categories is $17.86M, the select categories spending categories is $17.86M, the select categories represent represent 46% 46% of of retail retail demand demand across across all all categories. categories. Retail Retail Assessment Assessment The The overall overall assessment assessment of of Monticello Monticello Road Road retail retail is is that that itit is is weak weak as as aa retail retail corridor corridor compared compared to to other other corridors corridors in the city – such as the nearby N. Main Corridor. in the city – such as the nearby N. Main Corridor. With With exceptions exceptions such such as as the the school school and and aa few few sporadic sporadic businesses, businesses, the the corridor corridor is is largely largely residential. residential. The The corridor corridor historically historically performed performed well well as as aa retail retail corridor; however as businesses moved either corridor; however as businesses moved either closer closer into into the the city, city, or or followed followed residents residents into into the the suburbs, suburbs, itit has has become become increasingly increasingly sparse sparse in in its its offerings. offerings. There There are few adequate opportunities to build retail at are few adequate opportunities to build retail at the the mass mass necessary necessary to to transform transform the the corridor corridor into into aa competitive competitive retail retail corridor. corridor. With With retail retail leakage leakage of of $6.13M $6.13M annually, annually, aa demand demand potential of $9.17M and sales of $3.04M, potential of $9.17M and sales of $3.04M, the the area area has has aa leakage/surplus leakage/surplus factor factor of of -.50. -.50. This This indicates indicates aa leakage leakage of of retail retail sales sales where where aa large large portion portion of of persons persons are going to other areas to make purchases. With are going to other areas to make purchases. With proper proper improvement improvement and and programming programming the the capture capture can be increased, however the highly residential can be increased, however the highly residential environment environment will will greatly greatly limit limit future future retail retail growth. growth. ERA No: 17467 – Monticello Road Retail Analysis Market Market Strengths Strengths ¾ ¾ None None in in the the sense sense of of aa retail retail corridor corridor –– strengths strengths are are in in being an improving residential area. being an improving residential area. ¾ ¾ The The few few stores stores along along the the corridor corridor do do well, well, but but itit is is highly highly unlikely given the competitive nature of the city that unlikely given the competitive nature of the city that new new retailers will be willing to invest in the corridor. retailers will be willing to invest in the corridor. Market Market Weaknesses Weaknesses ¾ ¾ Very Very weak weak as as aa retail retail corridor corridor –– has has very very few few businesses, businesses, and few opportunities and space for growth, and few opportunities and space for growth, likely likely will will not not retain retain retail retail character character as as corridors corridors strengthen strengthen elsewhere elsewhere in in the the city. city. ¾ ¾ Residential Residential areas areas are are often often inappropriate inappropriate and and unsuitable unsuitable for for retail. retail. Monticello Monticello Road Road will will be be able able to to support support aa few few stores, most in the convenience retail category, however stores, most in the convenience retail category, however aa full full retail retail corridor corridor is is not not recommended recommended for for consideration consideration along this corridor. along this corridor. Future Future Needs/Concerns Needs/Concerns ¾ ¾ Maintain Maintain existing existing retail retail opportunities opportunities at at current current quality quality levels. levels. ¾ ¾ Any Any new new retail retail development development should should occupy occupy and and work work to to improve improve existing existing vacant vacant retail retail space. space. ¾ ¾ Business Business moving moving to to stronger stronger retail retail markets markets in in other other corridors corridors in in the the city, city, downtown, downtown, or or outside outside of of the the city city limits. limits. Page10 Retail and Corridor Assessment Existing Existing Retail Retail Existing Existing retail retail along along the the corridor corridor is is in in the the form form of of small small to to mid-sized mid-sized convenience convenience grocery grocery oriented oriented stores. stores. These These offer offer basic basic goods goods to to residents. residents. Existing Existing Retail Retail Existing Existing retail retail offerings offerings are are primarily primarily located located on on small small lots lots with with parking parking which which allows allows customers customers to to easily easily stop stop and and go. The Family Dollar was the largest of offerings. go. The Family Dollar was the largest of offerings. Local Local School School The The local local school school will will bring bring students students and and faculty faculty into into the the corridor who will be potential customers. corridor who will be potential customers. ERA No: 17467 – Monticello Road Retail Analysis Sidewalks Sidewalks Much Much of of the the corridor corridor is is not not suitable suitable for for retail retail –– the the land land grade grade and and existing existing residential residential uses uses will will limit limit retail retail development. development. Page11 Existing Retail Assessment Existing Existing Retail Retail Existing Existing retail retail along along the the Monticello Monticello Road Road Corridor Corridor is is comprised comprised of of business business which which generally generally fall fall into into one one of of three three categories: food and beverage; sport goods, hobby, book, and music stores; and general merchandise stores. categories: food and beverage; sport goods, hobby, book, and music stores; and general merchandise stores. Auto Auto oriented oriented business, business, which which account account for for 27% 27% of of retail retail sales sales along along the the corridor, corridor, were were not not analyzed analyzed in in this this study study Food Food and and Beverage Beverage Mista Mista Browns Browns serves serves as as aa great great example example of of aa locally owned success story. ERA’s locally owned success story. ERA’s interview interview with with Mr. Mr. Brown, Brown, the the owner, owner, found found that that he he has has maintained maintained success success through offering good quality quick through offering good quality quick food food to to local local residents residents as as well well as as grocery retail which people from grocery retail which people from outside outside of of the the trade trade area area will will come come to to purchase. purchase. The The A-1 A-1 Food Food Store/convenience Store/convenience shop shop and and the the One One Stop Stop Food Food Mart Mart are are small small convenience oriented groceries convenience oriented groceries with with limited limited offering. offering. They They provide provide inexpensive inexpensive convenience convenience goods goods to to residents residents and and are are successful successful because because they they rely rely on on frequent frequent spending spending instead instead of large spending. of large spending. Sport Sport Goods, Goods, Hobby, Hobby, Book, Book, and and Music Music Stores Stores The The Kwanza Kwanza House House Bookstore Bookstore and and Cultural Cultural Center Center is is aa culturally themed bookstore culturally themed bookstore which which has has been been open open along along the the corridor corridor since since 2000. 2000. Part Part of the success and longevity of the success and longevity of of this this locally locally owned owned business can be business can be attributed attributed to to its its specific specific targeting targeting to to the the local local market market as as well well as as that that itit engages the community engages the community and and garnering garnering support support beyond retail sales. beyond retail sales. 7% of retail sales 53% of retail sales ERA No: 17467 – Monticello Road Retail Analysis Page12 General General Merchandise Merchandise Stores Stores The The Family Family Dollar Dollar is is the the only only general merchandise store general merchandise store along along the the corridor. corridor. Family Family Dollar Dollar is a chain which has built its is a chain which has built its reputation reputation and and success success by by offering a variety of low offering a variety of low priced priced retail retail goods. goods. This This store store works works well well along along the the Monticello Monticello Road Road corridor because its retail mix corridor because its retail mix means means that that itit relies relies on on small small frequent spending instead frequent spending instead of of higher higher spending spending which which would would likely likely not not be be captured. captured. 13% of retail sales Strategic Assessment and Recommendations Strategic Strategic Needs Needs Assessment Assessment ERA’s ERA’s analysis analysis of of Monticello Monticello Road Road corridor corridor found found that that itit will will not not be be able able to to greatly greatly increase increase its its retail retail capture. The current captured demand is driven capture. The current captured demand is driven by by residents residents and and persons persons associated associated with with the the local local school doing convenience and quick shopping. school doing convenience and quick shopping. Other Other retail, retail, such such as as at at the the local local meat meat market, market, have have success success that that will will be be hard hard to to duplicate. duplicate. Future Future retail development would do best by focusing retail development would do best by focusing on on convenience convenience oriented oriented retail, retail, although although there there are are already already aa suitable suitable amount amount of of offerings offerings which which have have cornered this market. cornered this market. Existing Existing retail retail offerings offerings in in the the downtown downtown shopping shopping core, along with the other retail corridors core, along with the other retail corridors and and the the shopping shopping malls malls make make for for aa competitive competitive retail retail environment. environment. Developing Developing Monticello Monticello Road Road further further as as aa retail retail corridor corridor would would entail entail pulling pulling sales sales from from other areas in the city. This would have the effect other areas in the city. This would have the effect of of diluting diluting the the sales sales of of across across all all corridors corridors and and being being overall overall determinative determinative to to the the cities cities retail retail environment. For these reasons ERA suggest environment. For these reasons ERA suggest that that focusing focusing on on convenience convenience retail retail and and quick quick food food would would be be in in the the overall overall best best interest interest of of the the city city and and would would best best take take into into consideration consideration the the interinterconnectedness connectedness of of retail retail offerings offerings in in an an urban urban landscape. landscape. ERA No: 17467 – Monticello Road Retail Analysis Recommendation Recommendation 1: 1: Infill Infill Retail Retail Development Development New New businesses businesses should should be be encouraged encouraged to to located located in in empty empty retail retail space space and and should should be be programmed programmed to to best best succeed succeed in in this market. ERA’s professional expertise and analysis this market. ERA’s professional expertise and analysis suggests suggests that that new new retail retail would would work work best best ifif itit focused focused on on convenience retail or quick food and beverage; other retail convenience retail or quick food and beverage; other retail offerings offerings would would likely likely struggle struggle against against the the competition competition that that they they face face in in other other corridors corridors and and from from downtown. downtown. Recommendation Recommendation 1: 1: Small Small Business Business Owner Owner Assistance/Association Assistance/Association New New and and existing existing retail retail would would benefit benefit from from aa business business owners owners association. association. Roles Roles which which such such an an association association could could play play would would be be in in helping helping businesses businesses with with advertising, advertising, merchandise merchandise mix, mix, proper proper signage, signage, and and façade façade upkeep upkeep to to maintain and improve the overall quality of retail along maintain and improve the overall quality of retail along the the corridor. corridor. Page13 Recommendation 1: Infill Retail Development Competitive Competitive Context Context Recommendation Recommendation 11 ERA ERA does does not not anticipate anticipate increasing increasing retail retail demand demand along along the the corridor, corridor, however however ifif new new retail is developed, it should focus on retail is developed, it should focus on occupying occupying vacated vacated retail retail space space with with basic basic quick quick consumer consumer services services and and shopping. shopping. The The corridor is primarily non-retail in nature corridor is primarily non-retail in nature and and the the new new retail retail would would face face stiff stiff competition competition from from existing existing retail retail elsewhere elsewhere throughout throughout the the city. city. New New infill infill retail retail would would work work best best ifif itit were were either either quick quick service service food food or or aa small small convenience/ grocery store. These new convenience/ grocery store. These new stores stores would would face face competition competition from from the the retail retail of of the the same type overviewed in the existing retail same type overviewed in the existing retail slide. slide. New New stores stores which which would would work work would would typically typically occupy occupy space space of of the the following following size: size: The The following following tenant tenant examples examples are are meant meant to to illustrate illustrate what what works works along along the the corridor corridor and and why why –– not not to to suggest suggest new new retail retail development. ERA’s examination of the corridor along development. ERA’s examination of the corridor along with with consideration consideration of of the the competitive competitive context context in in which which itit is is situated situated suggests suggests that that new new retail retail will will likely likely not not be be successful successful because because the the types types of of retail retail which which would would be be successful successful currently currently exist exist in in the the market. market. The The following following examples examples were were chosen chosen based based on on what what residents seem to request the most during our interviews residents seem to request the most during our interviews with with persons persons involved involved in in the the communities communities along along the the corridor. corridor. Tennant Tennant Example Example 1: 1: Drug Drug Store Store AA small small drug drug store store with with pharmacy pharmacy would would provide provide aa service service to to the the community community that that is is needed needed as as the the population population ages. ages. The The pharmacy pharmacy would would be be complemented complemented by by offering offering other other goods, goods, with with aa business business model similar to CVS or RiteAid. model similar to CVS or RiteAid. ¾ ¾ Personal Personal Care Care 2,000 2,000 –– 10,000 10,000 SF SF ¾ ¾ Small Small Grocery/Drug Grocery/Drug Store Store 2,000 2,000 to to 10,000 10,000 ¾ ¾ Quick Quick Service Service food food 1,200 1,200 –– 3,500 3,500 SF SF ¾ ¾ Dry Dry Cleaner Cleaner Substation Substation 1,250 1,250 –– 1,500 1,500 SF SF ERA No: 17467 – Monticello Road Retail Analysis Tennant Tennant Example Example 2: 2: Dry Dry Cleaner Cleaner AA dry dry cleaner cleaner substation substation would would not not necessarily necessarily have have to to do do the the cleaning on site which typically requires more space for the cleaning on site which typically requires more space for the machines machines necessary. necessary. AA substation substation would would serve serve as as aa branch branch of of another local dry cleaner and serve as a drop off point from another local dry cleaner and serve as a drop off point from which which clothes clothes are are taken taken to to another another site site for for processing. processing. Page14 Recommendation 2: Small Business Owners Association/Assistance Recommendation Recommendation 22 New New small small business business owners owners often often lack lack the the knowledge to compete in a retail knowledge to compete in a retail environment environment dominated dominated by by franchises franchises which benefits from the resources which benefits from the resources of of aa large large corporation. corporation. AA business business owners owners association will help existing businesses association will help existing businesses to to stay stay competitive competitive against against competition competition from from franchised franchised stores stores which which benefit benefit from from aa larger resource pool. larger resource pool. AA small small business business owners owners association association would would work to assist its members to maintain work to assist its members to maintain and and improve improve the the overall overall quality quality of of retail retail along along the the corridor. corridor. This This association association would would offer offer educational educational services services to to small small business business owners owners in in order order to to ensure ensure their their ongoing ongoing success. Such educational services success. Such educational services would would include include advising advising small small business business owners owners on on merchandise mix, advertising, signage, and merchandise mix, advertising, signage, and strategy. strategy. ERA No: 17467 – Monticello Road Retail Analysis Assistance Assistance Example Example 1: 1: Small Small Business Business Owner Owner Workshops Workshops Workshops Workshops administered administered by by aa small small business business owners owners association association would bring in experienced retailers and retail professional would bring in experienced retailers and retail professional to to teach teach classes classes on on retail retail strategies strategies for for small small business business owners. owners. These These workshops, administer by the city, would ideally pay for workshops, administer by the city, would ideally pay for themselves themselves through through the the additional additional tax tax revenue revenue they they generate generate by by increasing increasing the the sales sales volume volume of of the the local local businesses. businesses. This This has has aa twofold benefit for the city in that it increases tax revenue twofold benefit for the city in that it increases tax revenue and and also also increases increases money money going going towards towards locally locally owned owned businesses businesses which which will will have have more more cycled cycled through through the the local local economy economy compared compared to to franchise franchise stores stores headquartered headquartered outside outside of of Columbia. Columbia. Tennant Tennant Example Example 2: 2: City City Administered Administered (Forgivable) (Forgivable) Business Business Improvement Loans Improvement Loans City City or or County County administer administer small small business business owner owner loans loans would would make make available capital for improvements that many businesses do available capital for improvements that many businesses do not not have. have. These These loans loans could could be be forgivable forgivable ifif aa certain certain criteria criteria is is met, met, and and ifif not not possible possible they they should should carry carry little little or or no no interest interest in in order order to to best benefit business owners. Again the benefit for the City or best benefit business owners. Again the benefit for the City or County County comes comes from from an an increase increase in in sales sales tax tax as as sales sales volumes volumes increase. increase. Page15 Monticello Road Analysis Summary Summary Summary of of Recommendation Recommendation 11 Summary Summary ERA’s ERA’s analysis analysis of of Monticello Monticello Road Road found found that that the the corridor corridor is is for for aa large large part part not not an an ideal ideal location location for for new new retail. retail. There There is is aa lack lack of of population population density density to to support support much much more more retail, retail, and and with with other other retail retail corridors corridors and and the the downtown downtown currently currently being being the the focus focus of of city city efforts, efforts, there there will will be be few few market gaps which new stores can fill. The immediate market gaps which new stores can fill. The immediate future future of of this this corridor corridor should should consist consist of of residential residential development and revitalization in order to development and revitalization in order to build build the the market market support support necessary necessary for for new new retail. retail. New New retail retail along along Monticello Monticello Road Road should should offer offer basic basic quick services to residents and commuters. A quick services to residents and commuters. A drug drug store, store, barber, barber, or or dry dry cleaner cleaner substation, substation, are are recommended recommended as as they they are are what what residents residents request request most. In order to be successful Farrow Road most. In order to be successful Farrow Road retail retail should should be be carefully carefully selected selected to to meet meet gaps gaps in in current current demand demand and and supply supply as as there there is is little little space space in in these these gaps gaps available. available. Summary Summary of of Recommendation Recommendation 22 AA small small business business owners owners association association could could serve serve the the role role of of providing providing existing existing and and new new businesses businesses with with the knowledge and resources they need to be the knowledge and resources they need to be successful. successful. The The benefit benefit of of providing providing such such services services to to the the city city and and county county will will be be an an increase increase in in sales sales tax tax collection. collection. ERA No: 17467 – Monticello Road Retail Analysis Page16 Appendix Monticello Road Corridor Trade Area Overview Summary Demographics 2007 2012 CAGR Real Growth Rate Population Households Average Houshold Income Median Household Income Total Area Income 3,585 1,457 $40,232 $29,248 $144,231,720 3,680 1,497 $46,765 $34,022 $172,085,847 0.52% 0.54% 3.06% 3.07% 3.59% 0.90% Workforce 2007 2012 Businesses Employees Office Employees 84 465 277 307 Demand (Retail Spending Potential) Residents Employees Inflow Total Supply (Retail Sales) Retail (Select Categories) Apparel & Apparel Services HH Furnishings & Electronics Personal Care & Services Food and Beverage Total Area Leakage/Retail Gap (2007) Retail Food and Beverage Leakage/Surplus Factor Retail $5,330,755 $264,369 $0 $5,595,124 2007 F&B $2,955,978 $318,439 $303,700 $3,578,118 2012 Retail F&B $5,576,307 $3,092,140 $293,115 $353,065 $0 $303,700 $ 5,869,422 $ 3,748,905 2007 $0 $0 $0 $0 $3,037,000 $3,037,000 -$5,595,124 -$541,118 -50.3% Source: ESRI Business Information Solutions; InfoUSA; Economics Research Associates, 2008. ERA No: 17467 – Monticello Road Retail Analysis Page17 General Limiting Conditions Every reasonable effort has been made to ensure that the data contained in this report are accurate as of the date of this study; however, factors exist that are outside the control of Economics Research Associates and that may affect the estimates and/or projections noted herein. This study is based on estimates, assumptions and other information developed by Economics Research Associates from its independent research effort, general knowledge of the industry, and information provided by and consultations with the client and the client’s representatives. No responsibility is assumed for inaccuracies in reporting by the client, the client’s agent and representatives, or any other data source used in preparing or presenting this study. This report is based on information that was current as of February, 2008 and Economics Research Associates has not undertaken any update of its research effort since such date. Because future events and circumstances, many of which are not known as of the date of this study, may affect the estimates contained therein, no warranty or representation is made by Economics Research Associates that any of the projected values or results contained in this study will actually be achieved. Possession of this study does not carry with it the right of publication thereof or to use the name of “Economics Research Associates” in any manner without first obtaining the prior written consent of Economics Research Associates. No abstracting, excerpting or summarization of this study may be made without first obtaining the prior written consent of Economics Research Associates. 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