2008 Five Point/Devine Street Retail Analysis
Columbia, SC
An Analysis of Downtown Retail Market and Retail Corridors in
Columbia, SC
March 2008
Table of Contents
I.
Five Points/Devine Street History and Current Market
II.
Demographic and Population Overview and Trends
III.
Five Points/Devine Street Overview
I.
Primary Consumer Market (employees, residents, and students)
II.
Current Retail Environment
I.
Current Sales vs. Potential Sales
III. Recommendations
I.
Policy
II.
Development
IV. Retail Potential
IV.
Appendix Tables
V.
Methodology Overview
ERA No: 17467 – Columbia Five Points/Devine Street Retail Analysis
Page 1
Five Points Corridor Overview
Five
Five Points/Devine
Points/Devine Street
Street Overview
Overview
The
The Five
Five Points
Points area
area consists
consists of
of the
the immediate
immediate area
area
surrounding
the
intersection
of
Harden
Street,
surrounding the intersection of Harden Street,
Devine
Devine Street,
Street, and
and Santee
Santee Ave.
Ave. The
The area
area extends
extends
along
Harden
Street
north
to
the
intersection
along Harden Street north to the intersection with
with
College
College Street
Street and
and south
south along
along Harden
Harden to
to Blossom
Blossom
Street
Street
The
The area
area also
also is
is comprised
comprised of
of the
the two
two blocks
blocks of
of
Greene
Greene Street
Street from
from Laurel
Laurel Street
Street to
to Pavilion
Pavilion Ave,
Ave,
also
Saluda
Ave.
from
Blossom
Street
to
Greene
also Saluda Ave. from Blossom Street to Greene
Street
Street and
and Santee
Santee Ave
Ave from
from Blossom
Blossom Street
Street to
to Lee
Lee
Street
Street
Included
Included in
in the
the analysis
analysis is
is the
the Devine
Devine Street
Street retail
retail
corridor
that
extends
out
of
Five
Points
to
corridor that extends out of Five Points to the
the
intersection
intersection of
of Devine
Devine and
and Sims
Sims Streets.
Streets.
ERA
ERA identified
identified two
two types
types of
of customers
customers that
that Five
Five
Points/Devine
Points/Devine Street
Street retailers
retailers potentially
potentially attract:
attract:
residents,
USC
students
and
USC
visitors.
residents, USC students and USC visitors.
Other
Other student
student bodies,
bodies, such
such as
as Midlands
Midlands Technical
Technical
College,
are
not
represented
in
the
analysis
College, are not represented in the analysis
because
because its
its student
student body
body is
is already
already represented
represented in
in
by
by the
the resident
resident market.
market.
ERA No: 17467 – Columbia Five Points/Devine Street Retail Analysis
Page 2
Methodology/Term Definitions
Summary
Summary
The
The purpose
purpose of
of this
this study
study is
is to
to suggest
suggest ways
ways
in
in which
which the
the Five
Five Points
Points market
market can
can
enhance
its
retail
conditions
and
enhance its retail conditions and offerings
offerings
through
through an
an understanding
understanding of
of customer
customer
markets
markets and
and their
their spending
spending potential
potential
This
This analysis
analysis includes,
includes, identification
identification of
of key
key
retail
demand
segments/customer
groups,
retail demand segments/customer groups,
calculation
calculation of
of the
the market
market expenditures,
expenditures, an
an
evaluation
evaluation of
of the
the existing
existing retail
retail
environment,
and
recommendations
environment, and recommendations for
for
retail
retail improvements.
improvements.
In
In order
order to
to calculate
calculate the
the retail
retail potential
potential of
of the
the
Five
Five Points
Points market,
market, ERA
ERA has
has analyzed
analyzed the
the
demand
demand generated
generated by
by two
two major
major customer
customer
groups:
groups:
-Surrounding
-Surrounding Residents
Residents
-USC
-USC students/Visitors
students/Visitors
Demand
Demand Potential
Potential
Major
Major customer
customer groups
groups are
are analyzed
analyzed by
by their
their retail
retail demand
demand potential.
potential.
The
The demand
demand potential
potential is
is the
the total
total annual
annual spending
spending of
of each
each market
market
segment
(customer
group)
in
the
selected
retail
categories.
segment (customer group) in the selected retail categories.
Capture
Capture Rate
Rate
Capture
Capture rates
rates identify
identify what
what portion
portion of
of demand
demand potential
potential is
is realistically
realistically
captured
captured in
in aa given
given area
area (i.e.
(i.e. aa capture
capture rate
rate of
of 10%
10% assumes
assumes that
that
$10
of
every
$100
is
spent
in
a
given
area).
$10 of every $100 is spent in a given area).
In
In this
this study
study total
total retail
retail potential
potential of
of all
all consumer
consumer segments
segments is
is totaled
totaled
and
then
an
overall
capture
rate
is
calculated.
From
that
an
and then an overall capture rate is calculated. From that an
estimate
estimate of
of how
how aa series
series of
of recommendations
recommendations can
can increase
increase this
this rate
rate
are
derived.
are derived.
Productivity
Productivity and
and Supportable
Supportable Square
Square Feet
Feet
Productivity
Productivity is
is quantified
quantified retail
retail performance
performance on
on an
an annual
annual sales
sales
volume
per
square
foot
basis
volume per square foot basis
Supportable
Supportable square
square feet
feet is
is estimated
estimated based
based on
on annual
annual market
market
expenditures
and
productivity
expenditures and productivity
ERA No: 17467 – Columbia Five Points/Devine Street Retail Analysis
Page 3
Retail trade areas encompass surrounding households that are potential
CBID customers . . . if a distinct merchandise mix that reflects market
characteristics, is in place.
Five
Five Points
Points Overview
Overview
ERA
ERA identified
identified three
three residential
residential markets
markets from
from which
which
Five
Points/Devine
Street
retailers
can
attract
Five Points/Devine Street retailers can attract
customers:
customers:
ƒƒ Primary
Primary Market
Market –– Residents
Residents living
living within
within aa five
five
minute
minute drive
drive of
of downtown
downtown Columbia
Columbia (Gervais
(Gervais
Street
Street and
and Main
Main Street)
Street)
ƒƒ Secondary
Secondary Market
Market –– Residents
Residents living
living within
within aa five
five
and
ten
minute
drive
of
downtown
Columbia
and ten minute drive of downtown Columbia
ƒƒ Tertiary
Tertiary Market
Market –– Residents
Residents living
living within
within aa ten
ten and
and
twenty
minute
drive
of
downtown
Columbia
twenty minute drive of downtown Columbia
At
At this
this scale
scale the
the difference
difference in
in size
size of
of resident
resident markets
markets
for
Five
Points
and
downtown
Columbia
are
for Five Points and downtown Columbia are
negligible
negligible
Markets
Markets identified
identified by
by drive
drive time
time are
are used
used because
because
these
these reflect
reflect the
the real
real accessibility
accessibility of
of each
each market
market to
to
Columbia
Columbia
ERA No: 17467 – Columbia Five Points/Devine Street Retail Analysis
Page 4
Household income, lifestyle preferences, and expenditure patterns are
relevant factors when assessing retail potential and ultimately crafting a
merchandise mix plan.
The
The combined
combined population
population and
and households
households of
of
the
the Five
Five Points
Points markets
markets are
are about
about 394,000
394,000
and
and almost
almost 157,000
157,000 respectively.
respectively. The
The
market
is
expected
to
grow
by
a
little
market is expected to grow by a little more
more
than
than 10,200
10,200 households
households between
between 2007
2007 and
and
2012
with
most
of
that
growth
occurring
2012 with most of that growth occurring
ten
ten to
to twenty
twenty minutes
minutes outside
outside of
of
downtown
Columbia.
downtown Columbia.
The
The average
average household
household income
income in
in the
the area
area is
is
expected
to
increase
by
$12,472
over
the
expected to increase by $12,472 over the
next
next 55 years,
years, however
however the
the secondary
secondary and
and
tertiary
tertiary markets
markets can
can expect
expect much
much higher
higher
income
growth.
This
represents
a
income growth. This represents a
compound
compound annual
annual growth
growth rate
rate (CAGR)
(CAGR)
between
2.6%
and
2.9%
and,
when
between 2.6% and 2.9% and, when
adjusted
adjusted for
for inflation,
inflation, an
an average
average real
real
growth
growth rate
rate of
of 1.0%
1.0%
Primary
Area Description
Summary
Summary
Secondary
2007 Population
2012 Population
CAGR 07-12
49,637
50,999
0.54%
111,705
114,154
0.43%
232,664
247,848
1.27%
2007 Households
2012 Households
CAGR 07-12
19,675
20,687
1.01%
52,265
54,246
0.75%
85,026
92,287
1.65%
2007 Avg Household Income
2012 Avg Household Income
CAGR 07-12
Real Growth Rate 1/
$45,569
$52,076
2.71%
0.56%
$57,426
$66,812
3.07%
0.92%
$75,613
$90,734
3.71%
1.56%
2007 Median Household Income
2012 Median Household Income
CAGR 07-12
$28,104
$31,996
2.63%
$41,804
$47,644
2.65%
$60,446
$69,758
2.91%
HH Income Distrubution, 2007
25,000
Primary
Secondary
20,000
The
The total
total area
area income
income is
is expected
expected to
to increase
increase
by
by about
about $6.5
$6.5 billion
billion from
from 2007
2007 to
to 2012.
2012.
About
75%
of
the
expected
increase
About 75% of the expected increase in
in
income
income is
is aa result
result of
of income
income growth
growth in
in the
the
tertiary
market
tertiary market
Tertiary
No. HH
15,000
10,000
5,000
$2
0,
00
<
19
,9
99
0$3
$3
4,
5,
99
00
9
0$
44
$4
5,
,9
99
00
0$
59
$6
,9
0,
99
00
0$
$7
74
5,
,9
00
99
0
$1
-$
00
99
,0
,9
00
99
-$
$1
1
50
49
,0
,9
00
99
-$
$2
1
00
99
,0
,9
00
99
-$
$2
24
50
9,
,0
99
00
9
-$
49
9,
99
9
>
$5
00
,0
00
0
Source: ESRI Business Information Solutions; Economics Research Associates, 2007
ERA No: 17467 – Columbia Five Points/Devine Street Retail Analysis
Tertiary
Page 5
Income
Psychographic information describes the lifestyle preferences and
buying patterns of households, which is important when analyzing
retail potential and outlining recruitment goals.
Primary
Primary Market
Market (5
(5 min.
min. drive)
drive)
¾
Analyzed Life Mode Tapestry groups, which
cluster similar lifestyles and life stages
¾
Each Life Mode group has several more specific
segmentation categories (65 in whole system)
¾
2nd and 3rd largest groups (Metropolis and Solo
Acts), are potential downtown customers
¾
Scholars and Patriots – 25%
ƒ
ƒ
ƒ
ƒ
¾
High Society is relevant for retail - smallest group
ƒ
ƒ
Contains 7 most affluent segments, high disposable
income
Category grows significantly has market extends (3%
and 9% of secondary and tertiary markets)
Family Portrait
8%
Traditional Living
2% High Society
1%
Global Roots
2%
High Hopes
10%
Metropolis
26%
Metropolis - 26%
ƒ
ƒ
ƒ
ƒ
ƒ
¾
College Towns 15% of total
4th youngest of all tapestry segments with a
median age of 24.5
Median household income is $28,900
Dorms to Diplomas 10% of total
¾
Metropolitans 13% of total
Favor city living, have active urbane lifestyle
75% of those over 25 have college degree or higher
Median income $61,000
Modest Income Homes 8% of total
Solo Acts – 13%
ƒ
ƒ
ƒ
ƒ
ƒ
Young and Restless 3% of total
Young population with median income below
US median income, but higher discretionary
income because only 23% of these households
include children
Old and Newcomers 3% of total
Typically renters that are starting their careers
or retiring
Higher percentage than national average of
people in their 20’s or over 75
ERA No: 17467 –Columbia Five Points/Devine Street Retail Analysis
Solo Acts
13%
Scholars & Patriots
25%
Senior Styles
13%
Page 6
In the secondary market, a larger segment of the population [than in
the primary market] are likely urban customers.
Secondary
Secondary Market
Market (10
(10 min.
min. drive)
drive)
¾
Solo Acts – 23%
ƒ
ƒ
ƒ
ƒ
ƒ
ƒ
¾
¾
Several equally dominant tapestry
groups
Traditional Living – 20%
ƒ
ƒ
ƒ
ƒ
ƒ
ƒ
ƒ
ƒ
¾
Young and Restless dominant sub group - 17% of
total
Young professionals pursuing careers, busy lifestyles
Read magazines to stay current on lifestyle,
entertainment, and fashion trends
Technologically savvy
Not yet saving for retirement or investing
Frequent movies, clubs, bars
Most are Family Foundations 12% of total
Traditional Living
73% of these households are composed of various
20%
family types
Median household income is $42,100
They spend on home maintenance and on their families
Midlife Junction are 6% of total
Family Portrait
Median age is 40.5
5%
Median household income is $43,600
These households spend their money carefully and do
not succumb to fads
Senior Styles – 17%
ƒ
ƒ
ƒ
ƒ
ƒ
ƒ
Prosperous Empty Nesters 5% of total
56% of Prosperous Empty Nesters are 55 or older
Median household income is $66,200
Place a high value on their physical or financial wellbeing
Rustbelt Retirees 4% of total
Median household income is $47,400, which is just
below the U.S. median household income
ERA No: 17467 –Columbia Five Points/Devine Street Retail Analysis
American Quilt
High Society
1%
3%
Metropolis
10%
Global Roots
1%
Solo Acts
23%
High Hopes
11%
Scholars & Patriots
4%
Page 7
Upscale Avenues
5%
Senior Styles
17%
The Tertiary Market has the most affluent customer base, but they are the
farthest from downtown; the quality of Merchandise Mix will determine
their impact.
Tertiary
Tertiary Market
Market (20
(20 min.
min. drive)
drive)
¾
Family Portrait – 30%
ƒ
ƒ
ƒ
ƒ
ƒ
ƒ
ƒ
ƒ
¾
¾
Distance from downtown limits likelihood of
frequent shopping trips to downtown
¾
Over 60% are households with affluence
who enjoy spending
¾
Must create great retail mix (destination) to
attract
Upscale Avenues – 15%
ƒ
ƒ
ƒ
ƒ
ƒ
ƒ
¾
Up and coming Families are 15% of total
Youngest segment of the most affluent family markets
Median age of 31.9 years
Mix of Generation X and Baby Boomers
Many are beginning or expanding their families
Milk and Cookies are 14% of total
Young, affluent, married couples who are starting their
families
Median household income is $60,700
Cozy and Comfortable is most dominant subgroup - 5% of
Factories & Farms
total
0% American Quilt
Middle-aged, married couples with a median age of 41
Traditional Living
7%
8%
Median household income is $61,800
In Style small subgroup 5% of total
Live in suburbs but prefer the city lifestyle
Median household income of $67,800
Senior Styles – 10%
ƒ
ƒ
ƒ
ƒ
High Society
9%
Upscale Avenues
15%
Metropolis
2%
Prosperous Empty Nesters, most of group - 9% of total
56% of Prosperous Empty Nesters are 55 or older
Median household income is $66,200
Place a high value on their physical or financial well-being
Solo Acts
10%
Family Portrait
30%
Senior Styles
Global Roots High Hopes
10%
Scholars & Patriots
1%
7%
1%
ERA No: 17467 –Columbia Five Points/Devine Street Retail Analysis
Page 8
The first step in assessing retail potential is understanding 1) who are the
customers, 2) how much money do they spend and 3) where do they spend
money (retail categories).
These expenditures:
ƒ are an indication of spending patterns and household spending power
ƒ represent household purchases anywhere, including expenditures that do not
occur in the trade area or downtown
ƒ do not indicate total spending in Five Points
Total
Total Residential
Residential Retail
Retail Spending,
Spending, 2012
2012
25%
37%
Estimated
Estimated 2012
2012 Market
Market Expenditures
Expenditures
Retail Categories By Market
Primary
Apparel & Apparel Services
Total HHs
Avg HH Retail
Expenditures 2012
26%
12%
Apparel & Apparel Services
HH Furnishings & Electronics
Personal Care & Services
Eating & Drinking Places
20,687
HH Furnishings & Electronics
Personal Care & Services
Eating & Drinking Places
Subtotal
Secondary
Apparel & Apparel Services
Annual Market Area
Retail Expenditures
$1,660
$34,157,961
$1,761
$784
$2,426
$6,632
$36,234,108
$16,133,171
$49,915,462
$136,440,701
$1.5B
$1.5B annual
annual spending
spending -- all
all categories
categories && markets
markets
54,246
HH Furnishings & Electronics
Personal Care & Services
Eating & Drinking Places
Subtotal
Tertiary
Apparel & Apparel Services
HH Furnishings & Electronics
Personal Care & Services
Eating & Drinking Places
Subtotal
92,287
Total
Apparel & Apparel Services
HH Furnishings & Electronics
Personal Care & Services
Eating & Drinking Places
Total
167,220
ERA No: 17467 – Columbia Five Points/Devine Street Retail Analysis
Summary
Summary
$2,007
$107,857,322
$2,208
$1,012
$2,927
$8,153
$118,660,413
$54,406,026
$157,302,134
$438,225,894
$2,595
$2,679
$1,264
$3,756
$10,294
$235,821,894
$243,420,806
$114,839,174
$341,295,473
$935,377,347
$6,262
$6,648
$3,060
$9,109
$25,079
$377,837,176
$398,315,326
$185,378,371
$548,513,070
$1,510,043,943
Page 9
$96.3M
$96.3M projected
projected increase
increase in
in combined
combined
residential
residential market
market 2007-2012
2007-2012
Spending
Spending in
in selected
selected retail
retail categories
categories isis expected
expected
to
increase
by
$6.7M,
$16M,
to increase by $6.7M, $16M, and
and $73.6M
$73.6M in
in
the
the primary,
primary, secondary,
secondary, and
and tertiary
tertiary markets
markets
from
from 2007
2007 to
to 2012
2012
This
This isis aa result
result of
of growth
growth in
in households
households for
for each
each
market.
market. For
For accurate
accurate comparison,
comparison, dollars
dollars
remain
remain constant
constant in
in 2007
2007 terms
terms
Future
Future economic
economic conditions,
conditions, consumer
consumer behavior,
behavior,
and
propensity
to
consume
and propensity to consume among
among residents
residents
all
all have
have an
an impact
impact on
on expenditure
expenditure growth
growth
Five Points greatly benefits from a close proximity to the University of South
Carolina, which brings many potential customers to the area.
Summary
Summary
Estimated
Estimated Off
Off Campus
Campus Spending
Spending
Food & Beverage
Books & Supplies
Clothing
Furniture & Household
Retail & Personal Services
Total Retail Spending
Live On Campus
Undergraduate
Graduate
$2,584,228
$193,066
$694,889
$63,979
$2,261,355
$93,996
$1,118,070
$67,182
$2,550,329
$165,363
$9,208,871
$583,586
Food & Beverage
Books & Supplies
Clothing
Furniture & Household
Retail & Personal Services
Total Retail Spending
Live Off Campus
Undergraduate
Graduate
$7,204,329
$6,309,166
$1,842,640
$1,446,837
$4,251,154
$2,434,004
$2,543,977
$2,051,946
$6,413,925
$5,476,973
$22,256,025
$17,718,926
Spending by Category
Food & Beverage
Retail
Total Retail Spending
There
There are
are 27,390
27,390 undergraduate
undergraduate and
and graduate
graduate
students
students enrolled
enrolled in
in the
the Columbia
Columbia campus
campus of
of the
the
University
of
South
Carolina
University of South Carolina
About
About 80%
80% of
of estimated
estimated student
student off
off campus
campus spending
spending
comes
from
undergraduate
or
graduate
students
comes from undergraduate or graduate students
living
living off
off campus
campus in
in Columbia
Columbia
About
About 1/3
1/3 of
of off
off campus
campus purchases
purchases are
are food
food &
&
beverage
beverage expenditures
expenditures
Demand
Demand is
is expected
expected to
to grow
grow as
as enrollment
enrollment increases
increases
(enrollment
(enrollment has
has grown
grown by
by 2.1%
2.1% per
per year
year since
since
2000)
2000) and
and student
student discretionary
discretionary spending
spending increases
increases
Additionally,
Additionally, USC
USC had
had about
about 30,000
30,000 visits
visits to
to the
the visitor
visitor
center
center by
by non-students
non-students and
and faculty
faculty members
members in
in this
this
past
year
past year
USC
USC employs
employs 4,500
4,500 people,
people, of
of which
which approximately
approximately
1200
are
full
time
instructional
staff
1200 are full time instructional staff –– this
this is
is not
not
significant
significant enough
enough for
for demand
demand line-item
line-item
Total
$16,290,790
$33,476,619
$49,767,409
Estimated
Estimated Total
Total USC
USC Student
Student Spending:
Spending:
$49.8M
$49.8M
Source: SBRI Survey (UC San Diego), 2004; Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2001; Darla Moore School of Business Research Department, 2000; Economics Research
Associates, 2007
Notes:
1/ Excludes Non-Retail Expenditures (37.8%) According to BLS College Age Consumer Expenditure Report, 2001
2/ 2007 Student Expenditures inflated using BLS Inflation rate for South East U.S.
3/ Retail category spending based on spending patterns of students at university with similar student body characteristics (UC San Diego), 2004
ERA No: 17467 – Columbia Five Points/Devine Street Retail Analysis
Page 10
If Five Points/Devine retail is successful it will penetrate a portion of total
resident and student expenditures (capture); capture rates vary depending
on the sub-district, retail type, and customer type.
Capture
Capture Rates
Rates
Capture
Capture Rates
Rates or
or market
market penetration
penetration rates
rates identify
identify aa realistic
realistic portion
portion of
of
expenditures
that
could
be
spent
in
a
given
area
expenditures that could be spent in a given area
Potential
Potential spending
spending from
from the
the three
three residential
residential markets
markets is
is calculated
calculated by
by
applying
low
and
high
capture
rates
to
estimated
expenditures
for
applying low and high capture rates to estimated expenditures for 2012
2012
Market
Market penetration
penetration rates
rates take
take into
into
consideration
the
following
consideration the following
aspects
aspects of
of the
the sub-districts
sub-districts under
under
study
study
ƒƒ Existing
Existing and
and potential
potential critical
critical
mass
mass of
of retail
retail
ƒƒ Competitive
Competitive context
context (i.e.
(i.e. other
other
shopping
shopping centers)
centers)
ƒƒ Proximity
Proximity of
of market
market to
to subsubdistrict
district
Additionally,
Additionally, common
common consumer
consumer behaviors
behaviors influence
influence the
the propensity
propensity to
to buy
buy
certain
items.
For
example,
people:
certain items. For example, people:
ƒƒ Buy
Buy groceries
groceries and
and convenience
convenience items
items close
close to
to home
home
ƒƒ Travel
farther
more
often
to
go
to
restaurants
Travel farther more often to go to restaurants as
as opposed
opposed to
to retail
retail
Residential
Residential Market
Market Capture
Capture Rates
Rates
Apparel & Apparel Services
HH Furnishings & Electronics
Personal Care & Services
Eating & Drinking Places
Primary
Low
High
8%
12%
4%
8%
6%
12%
10%
15%
Secondary
Low
High
8%
10%
5%
8%
5%
8%
10%
15%
Tertiary
Low
High
3%
6%
3%
5%
2%
5%
5%
10%
Residential
Residential Markets
Markets Potential
Potential Spending,
Spending, 2012
2012
Retail
Eating & Drinking Places
Total
$
$
$
Primary
Low
High
6,056,767 $
10,166,716
4,991,546 $
7,487,319
11,048,313 $ 17,654,035
ERA No: 17467 – Columbia Five Points/Devine Street Retail Analysis
$
$
$
Page 11
Secondary
Low
High
19,664,663 $
28,794,685
15,730,213 $
23,595,320
35,394,877 $ 52,390,006
Tertiary
Low
High
$19,307,661
$38,615,322
$17,064,774
$34,129,547
$36,372,435
$72,744,869
ERA estimated USC student expenditures at Five Points/Devine with capture
rates and accounted for demand from family and friends visiting USC
students by estimating trips per year and expenditures per trip.
USC
USC Student
Student Potential
Potential Spending
Spending
USC
USC Student
Student Market
Market Capture
Capture Rates
Rates
Low
5%
1%
8%
25%
Apparel & Apparel Services
HH Furnishings & Electronics
Personal Care & Services
Eating & Drinking Places
High
8%
3%
12%
35%
Apparel & Apparel Services
HH Furnishings & Electronics
Personal Care & Services
Eating & Drinking Places
Total
USC
USC Family
Family Visits
Visits
Number
27972
Parents
2
Visitor
days
55944
Retail
Food and Beverage
Total
Low:
Low: $82.8M
$82.8M
Low:
Low: $11.2M
$11.2M
High:
High: $142.8M
$142.8M
High:
High: $15.4M
$15.4M
High:
High:
$158.2M
$158.2M
ERA No: 17467 – Columbia Five Points/Devine Street Retail Analysis
Captured
Dollars
$461,538
$923,076
$1,384,614
Assumes
Assumes 1.5
1.5 family
family members
members visit
visit USC
USC undergraduate
undergraduate students
students twice
twice
during
the
year
during the year
Assumes
Assumes Five
Five Points
Points can
can capture
capture 30%
30% of
of USC
USC family
family member
member
expenditures
expenditures
The
The USC
USC market
market boasts
boasts high
high demand
demand for
for eating
eating and
and drinking
drinking places
places
but
low
demand
for
retail
because
of
the
propensity
but low demand for retail because of the propensity for
for students
students
to
to shop
shop for
for apparel
apparel at
at home
home rather
rather than
than at
at school
school and
and in
in Five
Five
Points
Points
Potential
Potential Demand,
Demand, 2012
2012
$94M
$94M
Daily
Total
Expenditures
Spending
$25 $1,398,600
$50 $2,797,200
$75 $4,195,800
Summary
Summary
USC
USC Students/Family
Students/Family
Expenditures
Expenditures
Low:
Low:
High
$755,265
$180,751
$2,318,897
$10,803,569
$14,058,482
USC
USC Family
Family Related
Related Demand
Demand
Visits
Residential
Residential
Expenditures
Expenditures
Low
$472,040
$60,250
$1,545,931
$7,716,835
$9,795,057
Because
Because of
of the
the offerings
offerings in
in Five
Five Points,
Points, such
such as
as tattoo
tattoo parlors
parlors and
and
tanning
tanning beds,
beds, personal
personal care
care and
and services
services can
can potentially
potentially capture
capture aa
significant
significant percentage
percentage of
of student
student spending
spending
Page 12
ERA next determined the estimated supportable square feet for downtown
retail based on estimated downtown expenditures and sales per square feet.
Five
Five Points
Points Supportable
Supportable SF,
SF, 2012
2012
Retail Category and
Market
Annual Market Area Expenditures
Low
Productivity
High
Retail
Residents
USC Students
USC Family Members
Subtotal
$
$
$
$
45,029,091
2,210,966
461,538
47,701,595
$
$
$
$
77,576,723
3,520,402
461,538
81,558,662
Food and Beverage
Residents
USC Students
USC Family Members
Subtotal
$
$
$
$
37,786,533
7,716,835
923,076
45,503,368
$
$
$
$
65,212,187
10,803,569
923,076
76,015,756
Retail
Food and Beverage
TOTAL
$
$
$
47,701,595
45,503,368
93,204,964
$
$
$
81,558,662
76,015,756
157,574,418
$350
$300
Supportable Square Feet
Low
High
128,655
6,317
1319
136,290
221,648
10,058
1319
233,025
125,955
25,723
3,077
154,755
217,374
36,012
3,077
256,463
136,290
154,755
291,045
233,025
256,463
489,488
Variables
Variables
These
These low
low and
and high
high estimates
estimates reflect
reflect conservative
conservative and
and aggressive
aggressive capture
capture
rates
rates
Low
Low estimates
estimates assumes
assumes the
the conditions
conditions of
of retail
retail stores
stores remains
remains similar
similar and
and
any
additional
demand
is
driven
by
population
growth
in
Columbia
any additional demand is driven by population growth in Columbia
High
High estimates
estimates are
are achieved
achieved ifif the
the tenant
tenant mix
mix is
is improved.
improved. The
The physical
physical
appearance
in
and
out
of
the
stores
and
restaurants
are
improved.
appearance in and out of the stores and restaurants are improved.
Market
Market conditions
conditions will
will also
also influence
influence customer
customer expenditures
expenditures in
in Five
Five Points
Points
Source: Info USA, 2007; CoStar, 2007; Economics Research Associates, 2007.
Notes:
1/ 2006 SF and sales are rounded
ERA No: 17467 – Columbia Five Points/Devine Street Retail Analysis
Page 13
Productivity
Productivity
Productivity:
Productivity: Gross
Gross annual
annual sales
sales per
per
square
foot
for
retail
square foot for retail
ƒƒ May
May vary,
vary, therefore
therefore aa constant
constant
industry
industry and
and market
market appropriate
appropriate
standard
standard was
was applied
applied (between
(between
$300
and
$350
dollars
$300 and $350 dollars per
per SF)
SF)
ƒƒ This
This further
further qualifies
qualifies the
the tenant
tenant mix
mix
as
as one
one with
with successful
successful retailers
retailers that
that
can
can pay
pay aa sufficient
sufficient rent
rent and
and
maintain
appropriate
inventory
maintain appropriate inventory
levels
levels and
and merchandise
merchandise
ƒƒ Typically
Typically rent
rent is
is between
between 88 –– 12
12
percent
percent of
of gross
gross sales
sales
ƒƒ Sufficient
Sufficient productivity
productivity enables
enables
tenants
tenants to
to continually
continually improve
improve and
and
maintain
merchandising,
displays,
maintain merchandising, displays,
operations,
operations, etc.
etc.
ƒƒ Sufficient
Sufficient rent
rent enables
enables landlords
landlords
continually
continually maintain
maintain and
and renovate
renovate
buildings
buildings
EXISTING
EXISTING SQUARE
SQUARE FOOTAGE:
FOOTAGE:
Approximately
Approximately 372,000
372,000 SF
SF
Multiple factors will ultimately affect the supportable square feet and
success of the retail clusters over the long-term.
Factors Affecting Store Supportable Demand
291,000 SF
Ill-formed
350,000 SF
489,000 SF
Well-formed
Merchandise Mix
The success and appeal of a retail cluster is directly linked to its
merchandise mix and its function as a destination.
Competitive Context
New catalytic or competitive development projects can either facilitate
additional demand or monopolize market support
High
Low
Store Productivity
The trade areas are capable of spending a certain amount. If more
$$ are spent in one store less $$ will be spent elsewhere.
Factors Affecting Store Productivity
Low Sales / SF
Bad
Inaccurate
High Sales / SF
Location, Design, & Configuration
Merchandise Mix
Good
A store’s size, location, interior and storefront design are part of
total appeal for customers
Accurate
Price-points and merchandise should accurately reflect the
demographics and lifestyle characteristics of the consumers
Type of Store
Merchandise quality (price), quantity (inventory level), and mark-up,
as well as store size, influence retailers’ profitability (Sales / SF)
ERA No: 17467 Columbia Five Points/Devine Street Retail Demand
Page 14
Based on the amount of existing retail, there is market support for up
to 117,000 additional SF by 2012; however if conditions worsen, low
estimates are 81,000 SF less than current retail space.
Additional
Additional Supportable
Supportable Square
Square Feet,
Feet, 2012
2012
Existing
Existing Retail
Retail Space
Space
¾
¾ ERA
ERA estimated
estimated the
the amount
amount of
of existing
existing retail
retail space
space
utilizing
utilizing CoStar
CoStar (a
(a national
national industry
industry resource
resource for
for real
real
estate
estate information)
information)
¾
¾ Includes
Includes buildings
buildings that
that are
are classified
classified as
as retail,
retail, but
but not
not
currently
currently leased
leased to
to stores
stores
ƒƒ Much
Much of
of the
the market
market demand
demand applies
applies to
to these
these
buildings
buildings that
that should
should be
be renovated,
renovated, released,
released, or
or
replaced
replaced over
over time
time as
as retail
retail grows
grows..
Street
Devine Street
Five Points
Total
Square Footage
105,350
266,759
372,109
Source: CoStar; Economics Research Associates,
2007
Category
Supportable Square Feet
Low
High
Space Demand
Retail
Eating & Drinking Places
Total
136,290
154,755
291,045
372,109
Existing Retail Estimate
Additional Supportable SF
-81,064
117,379
Source: ESRI Business Analyst, 2007; SBRI Survey (UC San Diego), 2004; Bureau of
Labor Statistics, 2001; Moore School of Business, Division of Research; Economics
Research Associates, 2007
Discussion
Discussion
¾
¾ New
New projects
projects or
or tenants
tenants in
in five
five points
points and
and on
on Devine
Devine Street
Street and
and market
market conditions
conditions will
will influence
influence the
the supportable
supportable
SF
SF
¾
¾ The
The SF
SF of
of retail
retail type
type does
does not
not indicate
indicate number
number of
of stores;
stores; stores
stores size
size varies
varies
¾
¾ Typical
Typical store
store sizes:
sizes:
ƒƒ Apparel
Apparel 3,500
3,500 SF
SF
ƒƒ Accessories
Accessories 2,000
2,000 –– 10,000
10,000 SF
SF
ƒƒ Personal
Care
2,000
–
10,000
Personal Care 2,000 – 10,000 SF
SF
ƒƒ Household
Household Furnishings
Furnishings 3,500
3,500 –– 10,000
10,000 SF
SF
ƒƒ Restaurants
Restaurants 3,,000
3,,000 –– 6,000+
6,000+ SF
SF
ƒƒ Quick
Quick Service
Service food
food 1,200
1,200 –– 3,500
3,500 SF
SF
ERA No: 17467 Columbia Five Points/Devine Street Retail Demand
233,025
256,463
489,488
Page 15
Five Points has a base of unique retailers and a strong community identity,
from which to build upon.
Market
Market Strengths
Strengths
¾
¾ Five
Five Points/Devine
Points/Devine Street
Street has
has some
some contiguous
contiguous retail
retail and
and restaurants
restaurants along
along street
street
¾
¾ Five
Five Points
Points has
has several
several streets
streets considered
considered pedestrian
pedestrian friendly
friendly because
because they
they are
are well
well landscaped
landscaped and
and most
most streets
streets have
have
only
2
lanes
only 2 lanes
¾
¾ Variety
Variety of
of retail
retail and
and reputation
reputation for
for hip/funky
hip/funky merchandise
merchandise make
make Five
Five Points
Points aa destination
destination
¾
¾ Restaurants
Restaurants along
along Devine
Devine Street
Street have
have high
high quality
quality reputation
reputation
¾
¾ Retail
Retail along
along Devine
Devine among
among most
most popular
popular retail
retail destinations
destinations in
in downtown
downtown Columbia
Columbia
¾
¾ Iconic
Iconic storefront
storefront and
and signage
signage elements
elements that
that Columbia
Columbia customers
customers identify
identify with,
with, such
such as
as Yesterdays
Yesterdays awning
awning bath
bath tub
tub
¾
¾ The
The population
population density
density in
in and
and around
around Five
Five Points
Points is
is growing
growing as
as new
new residential
residential supply
supply coming
coming online
online will
will provide
provide aa
boost
boost in
in the
the primary
primary market
market sales
sales
ERA No: 17467 – Columbia Five Points/Devine Street Retail Analysis
Page 16
Retail uses should strive to draw from an expanded market; balancing nighttime bars with daytime uses will help this.
Market
Market Weaknesses
Weaknesses
¾
¾ Retail
Retail along
along Devine
Devine Street
Street is
is interrupted
interrupted by
by office
office space
space such
such as
as law
law offices
offices and
and street
street is
is wide
wide
¾
¾ About
About 30%
30% of
of restaurants
restaurants in
in Five
Five Points/Devine
Points/Devine Street
Street are
are bars
bars that
that open
open late
late in
in the
the day
day and
and offer
offer very
very little
little synergy
synergy
with
retail
stores
operating
during
the
day
with retail stores operating during the day
¾
¾ Bars
Bars in
in Five
Five Points
Points have
have aa higher
higher percentage
percentage of
of sales
sales coming
coming from
from student
student spending
spending which
which is
is not
not expected
expected to
to grow
grow as
as
fast
as
the
residential
markets
–
student
spending
remains
fairly
constant
fast as the residential markets – student spending remains fairly constant
¾
¾ Retail
Retail draws
draws business
business mainly
mainly from
from residential
residential areas
areas immediately
immediately surrounding
surrounding Five
Five Points,
Points, as
as opposed
opposed to
to farther
farther out
out
¾
¾ Signage
Signage does
does not
not reflect
reflect store
store offerings
offerings
¾
¾ Some
Some awnings
awnings are
are in
in disrepair
disrepair
ERA No: 17467 – Columbia Five Points/Devine Street Retail Analysis
Page 17
Five Points overarching goal should be to recruit a Merchandise Mix with
retailers that cater to all potential customer groups and uphold Five Points’
identity.
Recommendation
Recommendation 1:
1: Existing
Existing Retail
Retail Space
Space
Strategic
Strategic Needs
Needs Assessment
Assessment
¾
¾ Maintain
Maintain list
list of
of property
property and
and tenant
tenant
information
information –– understand
understand current
current lease
lease
terms,
etc.
terms, etc.
¾
¾ Develop
Develop design
design guidelines
guidelines for
for future
future infill
infill
development
development
Aesthetic
Aesthetic Improvements
Improvements
¾
¾ Awnings,
Awnings, facades,
facades, and
and signs
signs should
should be
be
maintained,
clean,
and
reflect
the
maintained, clean, and reflect the
atmosphere
atmosphere of
of the
the restaurant
restaurant or
or retail
retail
store.
store.
¾
¾ Storefront
Storefront and
and Signage
Signage Design
Design Guidelines
Guidelines
would
would be
be helpful
helpful
Tenant
Tenant Recommendations
Recommendations
Five
Five Points
Points bar
bar turnover
turnover should
should be
be filled
filled
with
with restaurants
restaurants (lunch
(lunch &
& dinner).
dinner).
ƒƒ Moderate
Moderate price
price points,
points, such
such as
as
Charleston-based
Charleston-based The
The Kickin
Kickin Chicken
Chicken
(2
USC
alumni
owners),
4
SC
(2 USC alumni owners), 4 SC locations
locations
and
and growing
growing
ƒƒ Concept/chef-driven
Concept/chef-driven destinations
destinations
ERA No: 17467 – Columbia Five Points/Devine Street Retail Analysis
ƒƒ Utilize
Utilize existing
existing space
space to
to fill
fill retail
retail demand
demand with
with market
market appropriate
appropriate
tenants
tenants
ƒƒ Improve
Improve or
or renovate
renovate existing
existing spaces,
spaces, specifically
specifically facades
facades and
and
window
window displays
displays
Recommendation
Recommendation 2:
2: Urban
Urban Entertainment
Entertainment Districts
Districts
ƒƒ Unless
Unless actively
actively managed,
managed, Urban
Urban Entertainment
Entertainment Districts
Districts are
are prone
prone to
to
eventually
eventually become
become unbalanced
unbalanced with
with excessive
excessive late-night
late-night activity
activity
ƒƒ Maintain
Maintain aa balance
balance of
of night-time
night-time entertainment
entertainment and
and day-time
day-time retail
retail
uses
uses –– this
this mix
mix results
results in
in the
the most
most successful
successful district
district all
all around
around
ƒƒ Discourage
Discourage establishments
establishments that
that are
are exclusively
exclusively bars,
bars, rather
rather encourage
encourage
bars
bars with
with both
both lunch
lunch and
and dinner
dinner service
service
Recommendation
Recommendation 3:
3: “Keeping
“Keeping 5-Points
5-Points Funky”
Funky”
ƒƒ As
As stated
stated in
in Nov.
Nov. 23
23rdrd,, 2007
2007 The
The State
State article
article
ƒƒ Encourage
Encourage independent
independent and
and regional
regional stores
stores
ƒƒ Potential
Potential (if
(if nurtured)
nurtured) to
to draw
draw tertiary
tertiary and
and farther
farther markets
markets with
with
unique
unique and
and differentiated
differentiated merchandise
merchandise mix
mix and
and shopping/dining
shopping/dining
environment
environment
ƒƒ Build
Build on
on reputation
reputation of
of high
high quality
quality retail
retail on
on Devine
Devine Street,
Street,
Page 18
APPENDIX
ERA No: 17467 – Columbia Five Points/Devine Street Retail Analysis
Page 19
Reported Productivity at Five-Points and Devine
2006
2006 Sales
Sales and
and SF,
SF, 55 Points
Points Restaurants
Restaurants and
and Bars
Bars
India Pavilion
Village Idiot
Yesterday's Tavern
Subway
Jake's
Baan Sawan
Andy's deli
Garbaldi Cafe
Groucho's Deli
Bar None
Knock Knock Club
Sharky's
Locals
Harpers
Pop's NY Pizza
Chubbie's 2x4
Gracie's
Jungle Jim's
Grilled Teriyaki
Pour House
Dr. Rocco's Tropical Bar
Good Times
The Saloon
Bad Ass Coffee Co.
Adrian's Gelateria
Delaney's
Average
Sales Volume RBA (SF)
$80,000
2,749
$914,000
2,500
$3,400,000
8,791
$200,000
1,026
$1,072,000
11,336
$200,000
1,002
$440,000
4,075
$1,360,000
2,572
$720,000
2,749
$200,000
2,558
$1,608,000
8,499
$480,000
7,916
$268,000
1,598
$4,000,000
6,402
$1,200,000
1,437
$737,000
2,218
$480,000
1,270
$737,000
5,097
$480,000
2,927
$240,000
2,938
$240,000
3,329
$268,000
3,234
$268,000
2,561
$560,000
9,218
$200,000
1,427
$1,420,000
3,266
$837,385
3,950
Productivity
(Dollars/SF)
$29
$366
$387
$195
$95
$200
$108
$529
$262
$78
$189
$61
$168
$625
$835
$332
$378
$145
$164
$82
$72
$83
$105
$61
$140
$435
$235
Summary
Summary
Source
Source of
of sales
sales volume
volume is
is from
from InfoUSA,
InfoUSA, which
which conducts
conducts
annual
annual surveys
surveys of
of businesses
businesses nationwide.
nationwide. There
There is
is aa
possibility
of
businesses
reporting
lower
than
actual
possibility of businesses reporting lower than actual
sales
sales figures
figures
Current
Current sales
sales volume
volume per
per square
square foot
foot are
are low
low in
in both
both the
the
retail
retail and
and food
food and
and beverage
beverage categories
categories
Restaurants
Restaurants on
on Devine
Devine Street
Street average
average higher
higher sales
sales per
per
square
square foot
foot than
than in
in 55 Points
Points
One
One stakeholder
stakeholder estimated
estimated that
that their
their restaurant/bar
restaurant/bar sales
sales
were
were down
down 40%
40% in
in 2007
2007
2006
2006 Sales
Sales and
and SF,
SF, Devine
Devine St.
St. Restaurants
Restaurants and
and Bars
Bars
Dianne's on Devine
Mediteranean Tea Room
Yo Burrito
Night Caps
Tiffany's Bakery Cafe
Average
Source: Info USA, 2007; CoStar, 2007; Economics Research Associates, 2007.
Notes:
1/ 2006 SF and sales are rounded
2/ Only includes bars and restaurants where RBA and Sales are available
ERA No: 17467 – Columbia Five Points/Devine Street Retail Analysis
Page 20
Sales Volume RBA (SF)
$1,200,000
5,953
$440,000
2,241
$1,200,000
2,644
$201,000
1,920
$800,000
2,532
$768,200
3,058
Productivity
(Dollars/SF)
$202
$196
$454
$105
$316
$254
Estimated Current Retail Sales Volume
Total Businesses:
Total Sales:
341
$292,459,000
0
1
0
11
3
0
66
0
2
5
Percent
0.0%
0.3%
0.0%
3.2%
0.9%
0.0%
19.4%
0.0%
0.6%
1.5%
2006 Sales
Total (in
000's)
$0
$4,131
$0
$5,755
$1,590
$0
$65,845
$0
$4,590
$9,376
3
0.9%
$2,181
4
2
1
23
8
0
18
0
3
2
21
1.2%
0.6%
0.3%
6.7%
2.3%
0.0%
5.3%
0.0%
0.9%
0.6%
6.2%
$9,334
$2,000
$1,856
$15,915
$7,587
$0
$13,006
$0
$528
$2,727
$71,656
5
1.5%
$20,497
13
3.8%
$48,423
22
59
23
0
6
5
24
3
57
2
55
46
1
8
4
6.5%
17.3%
6.7%
0.0%
1.8%
1.5%
7.0%
0.9%
16.7%
0.6%
16.1%
13.5%
0.3%
2.3%
1.2%
$20,554
$55,902
$16,727
$0
$2,246
$1,459
$9,562
$641
$43,241
$2,499
$40,742
$6,622
$920
$0
$0
Businesses
Agriculture
Mining
Utilities
Construction
Manufacturing
Wholesale Trade
Retail Trade
Motor Vehicle and Parts Dealers
Furniture & Home Furnishings Stores
Electronics & Appliance Stores
Bldg Material and Garden Equipment and
Supplies Dealers
Food & Beverage Stores
Health & Personal Care Stores
Gasoline Stations
Clothing and Clothing Accessories Stores
Sport Goods, Hobby, Book, & Music Stores
General Merchandise Stores
Miscellaneous Store Retailers
Nonstore Retailers
Transportation & Warehousing
Information
Finance & Insurance
Central Bank/Credit Intermediation & Related
Activities
Insurance Carriers & Related Activities; funds,
Trusts & Other financial Vehicles
Real Estate, Rental & Leasing
Professional, Scientific & Tech Services
Legal Services
Management of companies & Enterprises
Administrative & Support & Waste Management &
Educational Services
Health care & Social Assistance
Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation
Accommodation and Food Services
Accommodation
Food Services and Drinking Places
Other Services (except Public Administration
Automotive Repair & Maintenance
Public Administration
Unclassified Establishments
Source: ESRI Business Information Solutions; InfoUSA; Economics Research Associates, 2007
ERA No: 17467 – Columbia Five Points/Devine Street Retail Analysis
Page 21
Summary
Summary
The
The total
total sales
sales volume
volume of
of $292.5M
$292.5M represents
represents the
the
total
total net
net revenue
revenue of
of all
all business
business along
along the
the
corridor.
corridor.
For
For this
this study
study the
the analysis
analysis is
is focused
focused on
on the
the retail
retail
categories
of
Apparel
and
Apparel
Services,
categories of Apparel and Apparel Services,
Household
Household Furnishings
Furnishings and
and Electronics,
Electronics,
Personal
Personal Care
Care and
and Services,
Services, and
and in
in Eating
Eating and
and
Drinking
Places.
Drinking Places.
Total
Total sales
sales volume
volume for
for the
the selected
selected retail
retail
categories
total
$31.8M
or
48%
of
categories total $31.8M or 48% of all
all retail
retail
sales.
sales.
Select
Select Categories
Categories
Retail
Apparel & Apparel Services
HH Furnishings & Electronics
Personal Care & Services
Eating & Drinking Places
Subtotal
$31,881,000
$15,915,000
$13,966,000
$2,000,000
$40,742,000
$72,623,000
Sales
Sales Volume
Volume in
in Selected
Selected
Categories:
Categories: $72.6M
$72.6M
General Limiting Conditions
Every reasonable effort has been made to ensure that the data contained in this report are accurate as of
the date of this study; however, factors exist that are outside the control of Economics Research
Associates and that may affect the estimates and/or projections noted herein. This study is based on
estimates, assumptions and other information developed by Economics Research Associates from its
independent research effort, general knowledge of the industry, and information provided by and
consultations with the client and the client’s representatives. No responsibility is assumed for inaccuracies
in reporting by the client, the client’s agent and representatives, or any other data source used in preparing
or presenting this study.
This report is based on information that was current as of February, 2008 and Economics Research
Associates has not undertaken any update of its research effort since such date.
Because future events and circumstances, many of which are not known as of the date of this study, may
affect the estimates contained therein, no warranty or representation is made by Economics Research
Associates that any of the projected values or results contained in this study will actually be achieved.
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ERA No: 17467 – Columbia Five Points/Devine Street Retail Analysis
Page 22