2008 Farrow Road Retail Analysis
Columbia, SC
An Analysis of the Farrow Road Retail Corridor in Columbia, SC
March 2008
Farrow Road Corridor Overview
Farrow
Farrow Road
Road Overview
Overview
The
The Farrow
Farrow Road
Road corridor
corridor extends
extends from
from the
the
intersection
intersection of
of Farrow
Farrow Road
Road and
and Colonial
Colonial Drive
Drive in
in
downtown
Columbia
to
I-20.
This
corridor
is
downtown Columbia to I-20. This corridor is
roughly
roughly 4.5
4.5 miles
miles long.
long.
The
The Farrow
Farrow Road
Road corridor
corridor retail
retail is
is local
local serving;
serving; itit
relies
relies on
on primarily
primarily on
on nearby
nearby residents,
residents, workers,
workers,
and
students
as
its
customer
base.
and students as its customer base.
Although
Although itit contains
contains retail,
retail, ERA’s
ERA’s analysis
analysis and
and
visitation
of
the
site
found
that
the
corridor
visitation of the site found that the corridor is
is
largely
largely residential
residential in
in nature
nature and
and cannot
cannot support
support
retail
retail in
in many
many sections.
sections. Any
Any future
future retail
retail
development
should
take
the
residential
development should take the residential character
character
into
into consideration.
consideration.
The
The primary
primary retail
retail segments
segments which
which this
this study
study analyzes
analyzes
are
are apparel
apparel and
and apparel
apparel services,
services, household
household
furnishings
furnishings and
and electronics,
electronics, personal
personal care
care and
and
services,
services, and
and eating
eating and
and drinking
drinking places.
places. These
These
categories
categories were
were chosen
chosen in
in order
order to
to focus
focus the
the
analysis
and
because
these
are
the
retail
categories
analysis and because these are the retail categories
which
which would
would best
best further
further enhance
enhance the
the current
current retail
retail
environment.
environment.
ERA No: 17467 – Columbia Farrow Road Retail Analysis
Page1
Methodology/Term Definitions
Summary
Summary
In
In order
order to
to calculate
calculate the
the retail
retail potential
potential of
of the
the
Farrow
Farrow Road
Road corridor,
corridor, ERA
ERA has
has analyzed
analyzed the
the
demand
generated
by
several
market
demand generated by several market
segments.
segments. These
These segments
segments are
are residents,
residents,
office
office employees,
employees, and
and aa small
small number
number of
of
college
and
university
students,
all
within
college and university students, all within
the
the primary
primary trade
trade area.
area. Students,
Students, Visitors
Visitors
and
Inflow
are
calculated
as
secondary
and Inflow are calculated as secondary
market
market segments.
segments.
The
The purpose
purpose of
of this
this study
study is
is to
to analyze
analyze retail
retail
sales,
sales, demand,
demand, and
and opportunities
opportunities along
along the
the
corridor
corridor in
in order
order to
to suggest
suggest ways
ways through
through
which
the
retail
environment
can
be
which the retail environment can be
improved.
improved. Because
Because of
of the
the limited
limited retail
retail
offerings
and
consumer
markets
in
offerings and consumer markets in the
the City
City
of
of Columbia,
Columbia, this
this may
may entail
entail drawing
drawing
potential
potential sales
sales from
from the
the other
other corridors
corridors or
or
from
the
downtown
area.
from the downtown area.
The
The organization
organization of
of this
this study
study is
is an
an analysis
analysis of
of
each
demand
segment,
calculation
of
the
each demand segment, calculation of the
sales
sales gap
gap and
and capture
capture rate,
rate, aa critical
critical
analysis
of
the
existing
retail
environment,
analysis of the existing retail environment,
and
and suggestions
suggestions on
on how
how the
the retail
retail
environment
environment can
can be
be improved.
improved.
ERA No: 17467 – Columbia Farrow Road Retail Analysis
Capture
Capture Rate
Rate
Capture
Capture rates
rates identify
identify what
what portion
portion of
of demand
demand potential
potential (total
(total annual
annual
spending
spending potential
potential of
of all
all market
market segments
segments in
in the
the select
select retail
retail
categories.)
categories.) are
are captured
captured in
in aa given
given area
area (i.e.
(i.e. aa capture
capture rate
rate of
of 10%
10%
suggests
suggests that
that $10
$10 of
of every
every $100
$100 in
in spending
spending potential
potential is
is spent
spent in
in aa
given
area).
Given
that
people
typically
shop
at
a
variety
of
given area). Given that people typically shop at a variety of
locations,
locations, aa 100%
100% capture
capture rate
rate is
is not
not realistic.
realistic.
Leakage/Surplus
Leakage/Surplus Factor
Factor
The
The Leakage/Surplus
Leakage/Surplus factor
factor presents
presents aa snapshot
snapshot of
of retail
retail opportunity.
opportunity.
This
metric
is
a
measure
of
the
relationship
between
supply
This metric is a measure of the relationship between supply and
and
demand
demand that
that ranges
ranges from
from +100
+100 (total
(total leakage)
leakage) to
to -100
-100 (total
(total
surplus).
surplus). AA positive
positive value
value represents
represents ‘leakage’
‘leakage’ or
or retail
retail opportunity
opportunity
inside
the
trade
area.
A
negative
value
represent
a
surplus
inside the trade area. A negative value represent a surplus of
of retail
retail
sales,
sales, aa market
market where
where customer
customer are
are drawn
drawn in
in from
from outside
outside the
the trade
trade
area.
This
analysis
is
included
to
present
all
opportunities
in
a
area. This analysis is included to present all opportunities in a
standardized
standardized fashion.
fashion.
Retail
Retail Categories
Categories
This
This study
study focuses
focuses on
on retail
retail categories
categories of
of Apparel
Apparel and
and Apparel
Apparel Services,
Services,
Household
Household Furnishings
Furnishings and
and Electronics,
Electronics, Personal
Personal Care
Care and
and Services,
Services,
and
and Eating
Eating and
and Drinking
Drinking Places.
Places. These
These categories
categories were
were selected
selected as
as
they
are
typically
local
serving
and
make
up
the
bulk
of
retail
they are typically local serving and make up the bulk of retail
demand.
demand. Farrow
Farrow Road
Road has
has many
many businesses,
businesses, such
such as
as auto-oriented
auto-oriented
businesses,
which
would
skew
the
analysis
to
show
a
retail
businesses, which would skew the analysis to show a retail
environment
environment with
with aa very
very high
high retail
retail surplus
surplus and
and little
little opportunity
opportunity
for
for new
new retail
retail development.
development.
Page2
Methodology
Summary
Summary
The
The primary
primary trade
trade area
area contains
contains the
the main
main
consumer
consumer markets
markets for
for the
the corridor
corridor and
and is
is
derived
derived from
from aa half
half mile
mile buffer
buffer around
around the
the
corridor.
corridor.
¾
¾ Resident
Resident Market
Market data
data is
is for
for households
households
within
the
primary
trade
area
within the primary trade area (the
(the dashed
dashed
line).
line). These
These households
households are
are the
the main
main
customer
customer base
base for
for the
the nearby
nearby retail.
retail.
Two notch north map
¾
¾ Employee
Employee Market
Market data
data is
is from
from all
all
businesses
and
organizations
along
businesses and organizations along the
the
corridor
corridor (the
(the blue
blue points).
points). This
This includes
includes
non-profit
non-profit and
and government
government employment.
employment.
¾
¾ Inflow,
Inflow, calculated
calculated as
as aa percentage
percentage of
of sales,
sales,
is
is spending
spending from
from outside
outside the
the trade
trade area.
area.
¾
¾ Sales
Sales data
data is
is the
the estimated
estimated sales
sales or
or assets
assets
of
of retail
retail business
business along
along the
the corridor
corridor (the
(the
green
points)
in
the
select
categories.
green points) in the select categories.
Source: ESRI Business Information Solutions; Economics Research Associates, 2008.
ERA No: 17467 – Columbia Farrow Road Retail Analysis
Page3
Farrow Road Corridor: Residential Market
Demographic Summary
Summary
Summary
The
The Farrow
Farrow Road
Road Corridor
Corridor residential
residential market
market is
is comprised
comprised
of
of persons
persons within
within aa half
half mile
mile of
of the
the corridor.
corridor.
The
The residential
residential market
market is
is comprised
comprised of
of 12,418
12,418 persons
persons in
in
4,698
4,698 households.
households. The
The population
population is
is expected
expected to
to grow
grow
by
by 124
124 persons
persons and
and 22
22 households
households by
by 2012.
2012. This
This shift
shift
indicates
a
slight
decrease
in
household
size
as
indicates a slight decrease in household size as
demographics
demographics in
in the
the local
local neighborhoods
neighborhoods transition
transition to
to
younger
couples
and
single
persons
without
children,
younger couples and single persons without children,
this
this shift
shift is
is reflective
reflective of
of national
national household
household formation
formation
trends.
trends.
The
The average
average household
household income
income in
in the
the area
area is
is expected
expected to
to
increase
by
$5,645
from
$39,382
to
$45,027
from
increase by $5,645 from $39,382 to $45,027 from
2007
2007 –– 2012.
2012. This
This represents
represents aa compound
compound annual
annual
growth
growth rate
rate of
of 2.72%
2.72% and,
and, when
when adjusted
adjusted for
for
inflation,
a
real
growth
rate
of
.56%.
inflation, a real growth rate of .56%.
The
The total
total area
area income
income is
is expected
expected to
to increase
increase by
by $64.5M
$64.5M
from
2007
to
2012.
This
corresponds
to
an
increase
from 2007 to 2012. This corresponds to an increase in
in
tax
tax base,
base, dollars
dollars available
available to
to be
be invested
invested in
in homes,
homes, and
and
dollars
dollars available
available to
to be
be spent
spent on
on local
local retail.
retail.
12,418
12,294
-0.20%
2007 Households
2012 Households
CAGR 07-12
4,698
4,720
0.09%
2007 Avg Household Income
2012 Avg Household Income
CAGR 07-12
Real Growth Rate 1/
$39,382
$45,027
2.72%
0.56%
2007 Median Household Income
2012 Median Household Income
CAGR 07-12
$28,292
$32,547
2.84%
Total Area Income 2007
Total Area Income 2012
CAGR 07-12
Annual Retail Expenditures,
Select Categories
Retail
Apparel & Apparel Services
HH Furnishings & Electronics
Personal Care & Services
Eating & Drinking Places
Subtotal
Annual
Annual residential
residential spending
spending in
in the
the primary
primary retail
retail
categories
and
at
eating
and
drinking
places
categories and at eating and drinking places is
is
estimated
estimated at
at $11.5M
$11.5M and
and $6.3M
$6.3M respectively.
respectively.
Source: ESRI Business Information Solutions; Economics Research Associates, 2008.
ERA No: 17467 – Columbia Farrow Road Retail Analysis
2007 Population
2012 Population
CAGR 07-12
Page4
$489,045,676
$553,561,938
2.51%
Annual Market
Area Retail
Expenditures
3,602 $
11,530,866
1,385 $
4,433,929
1,490 $
4,769,938
727 $
2,326,999
1,994 $
6,381,433
5,596 $
26,289,279
Avg HH Retail
Expenditures
$
$
$
$
$
$
Total
Total Demand
Demand Potential:
Potential: $26.3M
$26.3M
Farrow Road: Residential Market Demographics
Summary
Summary
Racial
Racial Distribution
Distribution
In
In order
order to
to plan
plan proper
proper retail
retail programming,
programming, aa cursory
cursory
knowledge
knowledge of
of the
the market
market demographics
demographics are
are important.
important.
The
appendix
tables
contain
further
demographic
The appendix tables contain further demographic
summaries.
summaries.
White - 6.1%
Black - 90.1%
American Indian,
Eskimo, Aleut - 0.1%
Different
Different demographic
demographic groups
groups and
and sub-groups
sub-groups have
have
different
retail
spending
and
dining
preferences.
different retail spending and dining preferences. For
For
example,
example, the
the retail
retail spending
spending needs
needs and
and habits
habits of
of persons
persons
under
18
will
be
different
than
those
for
persons
over
under 18 will be different than those for persons over 65.
65.
Asian or Pacific Islander
- 0.5%
Hispanic Origin - 1.7%
The
The trade
trade area
area population
population is
is 12,418
12,418 persons
persons in
in 4,696
4,696
households.
households.
Other - 1.5%
Income
Income Distribution
Distribution
Age
Age Distribution
Distribution
EmptyNester
16%
14%
12%
30%
Retirees
Female
Female -- 55%
55%
Median
Median Age
Age –– 37.3
37.3
Median
Median –– $28,292
$28,292
Mean
Mean -- $39,382
$39,382
Total
Total HHs
HHs –– 4,698
4,698
25%
20%
10%
15%
8%
6%
10%
4%
5%
2%
0%
%
0%
0-4
5-9
10 14
15 19
20 24
25 34
35 44
45 54
55 65
65 75
75+
8%
7%
8%
7%
6%
11%
11%
13%
10%
9%
9%
ERA No: 17467 – Columbia Farrow Road Retail Analysis
Page5
%
< $15,000
$15,000 $24,999
$25,000 $34,999
$35,000 $49,999
27%
19%
13%
17%
$50,000 $75,000 +
$74,999
15%
10%
Farrow Road Corridor: Employee Market
Total Businesses
Total Employment
392
11,412
BUSINESSES
Number
Percent
Agriculture & Mining
Mining
Utilities
Construction
Manufacturing
Wholesale Trade
Retail Trade
Transportation & Warehousing
Information
Finance & Insurance
Central Bank/Credit Intermediation & Related Activities
Insurance Carriers & Related Activities; Funds, Trusts & Other
financial Vehicles
Real Estate, Rental & Leasing
Professional, Scientific & Tech Services
Legal Services
Management of companies & Enterprises
Administrative & Support & Waste Management &
Remediation Services
Educational Services
Health care & Social Assistance
Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation
Accommodation and Food Services
Accommodation
Food Services and Drinking Places
Other Services (except Public Administration)
Automotive Repair & Maintenance
Public Administration
Unclassified Establishments
Office Worker Spending
EMPLOYMENT
Number
Percent
2
0
0
18
8
17
37
2
2
7
5
2
0.5%
0.0%
0.0%
4.6%
2.0%
4.3%
9.4%
0.5%
0.5%
1.8%
1.3%
0.5%
37
0
0
128
178
161
190
26
33
17
12
5
0.3%
0.0%
0.0%
1.1%
1.6%
1.4%
1.7%
0.2%
0.3%
0.1%
0.1%
0.0%
14
22
1
0
10
3.6%
5.6%
0.3%
0.0%
2.6%
36
132
4
0
84
0.3%
1.2%
0.0%
0.0%
0.7%
6
132
5
12
1
11
74
7
19
5
1.5%
33.7%
1.3%
3.1%
0.3%
2.8%
18.9%
1.8%
4.8%
1.3%
269
6,932
8
32
1
31
207
43
2,901
41
2.4%
60.7%
0.1%
0.3%
0.0%
0.3%
1.8%
0.4%
25.4%
0.4%
Summary
Summary
The
The Farrow
Farrow Road
Road Corridor
Corridor employee
employee market
market is
is
comprised
comprised of
of employees
employees from
from businesses
businesses within
within
aa half
half mile
mile of
of the
the corridor.
corridor.
Employee
Employee spending
spending is
is estimated
estimated to
to be
be generated
generated
primarily
from
office
workers
in
the
fields
primarily from office workers in the fields of
of
Retail
Retail Trade,
Trade, Finance
Finance &
& Insurance,
Insurance, Professional,
Professional,
Scientific
Scientific &
& Tech
Tech Services,
Services, Educational
Educational Services,
Services,
Health
Care
&
Social
Services,
and
Public
Health Care & Social Services, and Public
Administration.
Administration. This
This represent
represent 82.3%
82.3% of
of total
total
employment.
employment.
The
The largest
largest employment
employment concentrations
concentrations in
in the
the
Farrow
Road
primary
area
are
in
Health
Care
Farrow Road primary area are in Health Care and
and
Social
Social Services
Services and
and Public
Public Administration.
Administration.
2007 Expenditures
Retail in Select Categories
$
10,705,151
Eating & Drinking Places
Lunch
Dinner/Drinks
Total
$
$
$
$
12,894,637
11,844,760
1,049,876
23,599,787
Total
Total Demand
Demand Potential:
Potential: $22.6M
$22.6M
Source: ESRI Business Information Solutions; ICSC; InfoUSA; Economics Research Associates, 2008.
ERA No: 17467 – Columbia Farrow Road Retail Analysis
Page6
Farrow Road Corridor: Student and Inflow Market
Secondary
Secondary Market:
Market: Inflow
Inflow
The
The Farrow
Farrow Road
Road inflow
inflow market
market is
is comprised
comprised of
of consumers
consumers who
who do
do not
not live
live or
or work
work in
in the
the primary
primary
trade
trade area
area .. Unlike
Unlike other
other markets
markets in
in which
which spending
spending potential
potential is
is estimated,
estimated, the
the inflow
inflow market
market is
is
estimated
to
generally
account
for
2%
of
sales
in
the
selected
retail
categories.
Since
the
inflow
estimated to generally account for 2% of sales in the selected retail categories. Since the inflow
market
market has
has no
no geographical
geographical constrains
constrains itit therefore
therefore theoretically
theoretically has
has unlimited
unlimited demand
demand potential.
potential.
Inflow
demand
will
increase
as
better,
and
more
visible,
retail
offerings
are
placed
along
Inflow demand will increase as better, and more visible, retail offerings are placed along the
the
corridor.
corridor.
General
General Inflow
Inflow Market
Market (2%
(2% of
of total
total sales)
sales)
Other
Other Inflow
Inflow Demand
Demand is
is Generate
Generate by:
by:
¾
¾ Business
Business Visitors.
Visitors.
¾
¾ Passing
Passing through
through traffic.
traffic.
¾
¾ Visitors
Visitors to
to persons
persons living
living within
within the
the primary
primary trade
trade
area.
area.
¾
¾ Persons
Persons from
from outside
outside the
the primary
primary trade
trade area.
area.
General
General inflow
inflow spending
spending is
is estimated
estimated to
to account
account for
for
2%
2% of
of retail
retail sales
sales and
and 3%
3% of
of sales
sales at
at eating
eating and
and
drinking
drinking places.
places.
Total
Total Estimated
Estimated Spending:
Spending: $190,000
$190,000
ERA No: 17467 – Columbia Farrow Road Retail Analysis
Page7
Farrow Road Corridor: Estimated 2007 Retail Sales Volume
Summary
Summary
Retail
Retail Sales
Sales
Total Corridor Retail Businesses
Total Sales (Including Food Services and Drinking Places)
26
$26,419,000
BUSINESSES
Number
Percent
SALES VOLUME (ESTIMATE IN
000s)
2006 Sales Total
18
2
1
2
1
6
0
2
1
1
1
1
0
8
14.4%
1.6%
0.8%
1.6%
0.8%
4.8%
0.0%
1.6%
0.8%
0.8%
0.8%
0.8%
0.0%
6.4%
$25,659
$671
$3,366
$4,697
$3,354
$7,815
$0
$3,248
$310
$338
$1,458
$402
$0
$760
Retail Trade
Motor Vehicle and Parts Dealers
Furniture & Home Furnishings Stores
Electronics & Appliance Stores
Bldg Material and Garden Equipment and Supplies Dealers
Food & Beverage Stores
Health & Personal Care Stores
Gasoline Stations
Clothing and Clothing Accessories Stores
Sport Goods, Hobby, Book, & Music Stores
General Merchandise Stores
Miscellaneous Store Retailers
Nonstore Retailers
Food Services and Drinking Places
Retail
Retail Sales
Sales
Total Retail Trade
Retail in Select Categories
Apparel & Apparel Services
HH Furnishings & Electronics
Personal Care & Services
Eating and Drinking Places
Subtotal
$
$
$
$
$
$
$26,419,000
8,373,000
310,000
8,063,000
760,000
9,133,000
Sales
Sales Volume
Volume in
in Selected
Selected
Categories:
Categories: $9.13M
$9.13M
Source: ESRI Business Information Solutions; InfoUSA; Economics Research Associates, 2008.
ERA No: 17467 – Columbia Farrow Road Retail Analysis
Page8
The
The total
total sales
sales volume
volume of
of $191.7M
$191.7M
represents
represents the
the total
total net
net revenue
revenue and
and
assets
of
all
retail
business
directly
assets of all retail business directly
along
along the
the corridor.
corridor.
For
For this
this study
study the
the analysis
analysis is
is focused
focused
on
the
retail
categories
of
on the retail categories of Apparel
Apparel
and
and Apparel
Apparel Services,
Services, Household
Household
Furnishings
Furnishings and
and Electronics,
Electronics,
Personal
Personal Care
Care and
and Services,
Services, and
and in
in
Eating
and
Drinking
Places.
Eating and Drinking Places.
Eating
Eating and
and Drinking
Drinking places
places consist
consist of
of
restaurants
and
bars
as
compared
restaurants and bars as compared
to
to Food
Food &
& Beverage
Beverage stores
stores which
which are
are
grocery
grocery and
and liquor
liquor stores.
stores.
Total
Total sales
sales volume
volume for
for the
the selected
selected
retail
retail categories
categories total
total $9.13M
$9.13M or
or
35.6%
of
all
retail
sales.
35.6% of all retail sales.
Retail Environment: 2007 Retail Leakage in Select Categories
Farrow
Farrow Road
Road Trade
Trade Area
Area Demand
Demand Potential
Potential
The
The trade
trade area
area demand
demand potential
potential is
is the
the sum
sum of
of residential
residential demand,
demand, employee
employee demand,
demand, and
and sales
sales to
to the
the
secondary
secondary student
student and
and inflow
inflow market
market segments.
segments. Total
Total demand
demand potential
potential represents
represents the
the buying
buying power
power
from
from the
the local
local markets
markets which
which support
support the
the Farrow
Farrow Road
Road corridor.
corridor. The
The actual
actual sales
sales are
are less
less than
than the
the total
total
demand
potential
since
100%
of
total
demand
is
not
captured
along
the
corridor
–
the
difference
is
demand potential since 100% of total demand is not captured along the corridor – the difference is the
the
retail
retail leakage.
leakage.
Residents
Residents (54%)
(54%)
Employees
Employees (45%)
(45%)
Inflow
Inflow (.38%)
(.38%)
Residential
Residential demand,
demand, aa
primary
primary demand
demand
segment,
segment, is
is estimated
estimated to
to
generate
$11.53M
in
generate $11.53M in
retail
retail demand
demand and
and
$6.38M
in
demand
$6.38M in demand for
for
eating
and
drinking
eating and drinking
places.
places.
Local
Local Employee
Employee demand,
demand, aa
primary
demand
primary demand
segment,
segment, is
is estimated
estimated to
to
generate
$10M
in
retail
generate $10M in retail
demand
demand and
and $12.04
$12.04 in
in
demand
for
eating
and
demand for eating and
drinking
drinking places.
places.
Inflow
Inflow Demand,
Demand, aa
secondary
secondary demand
demand
segment,
segment, is
is estimated
estimated to
to
generate
$167K
in
retail
generate $167K in retail
demand
demand and
and $22.8K
$22.8K in
in
demand
demand for
for eating
eating and
and
drinking
places.
Inflow
drinking places. Inflow
demand
demand is
is estimated
estimated as
as
aa percentage
of
sales.
percentage of sales.
Total
Total Demand
Demand Potential:
Potential: $40.14M
$40.14M
Total
Total Sales
Sales Volume:
Volume: $9.13M
$9.13M
Leakage:
Leakage: ($31.01M)
($31.01M)
Source: ESRI Business Information Solutions; InfoUSA; Economics Research Associates, 2008.
ERA No: 17467 – Columbia Farrow Road Retail Analysis
Page9
Market
Market
Penetration/Capture
Penetration/Capture
Rate:
Rate: 22.75%
22.75%
Retail Environment: 2012 Retail Demand Growth
2012
2012 Demand
Demand Growth
Growth
2012
2012 Retail
Retail demand
demand growth
growth is
is the
the incremental
incremental difference
difference in
in demand
demand of
of the
the primary
primary market
market segments
segments over
over time.
time. This
This
demand
demand growth
growth is
is calculated
calculated only
only for
for residents
residents and
and employees,
employees, as
as inflow
inflow spending
spending is
is calculated
calculated as
as aa percentage
percentage of
of
sales.
sales. Residential
Residential demand
demand is
is determined
determined by
by calculating
calculating retail
retail spending
spending growth
growth at
at the
the same
same rate
rate as
as real
real income
income
growth
and
by
projecting
employee
spending
to
grow
by
the
increase
in
employees.
All
2012
increases
growth and by projecting employee spending to grow by the increase in employees. All 2012 increases are
are
adjusted
adjusted to
to 2007
2007 dollars
dollars in
in order
order to
to illustrate
illustrate only
only the
the real
real growth
growth in
in spending
spending power
power and
and support
support for
for new
new retail.
retail.
Resident
Resident Summary
Summary
2012 Annual Retail Expenditures, Avg HH Retail Annual Market Area
Select Categories
Expenditures Retail Expenditures
Retail in Select Categories
Apparel & Apparel Services
HH Furnishings & Electronics
Personal Care & Services
Eating & Drinking Places
Subtotal
3,741
1,439
1,548
755
2,071
5,812
$
$
$
$
$
$
11,975,958
4,605,079
4,954,058
2,416,821
6,627,757
27,304,047
Residents
Residents
Employees
Employees
2012
2012 Residential
Residential demand
demand
is
is estimated
estimated to
to grow
grow by
by
$.45M
in
retail
demand
$.45M in retail demand
and
and $.24M
$.24M in
in demand
demand
for
eating
and
for eating and drinking
drinking
places.
places.
2012
2012 Local
Local Employee
Employee
demand
demand is
is estimated
estimated to
to
grow
by
$.97M
in
retail
grow by $.97M in retail
demand
demand and
and $1.17M
$1.17M in
in
demand
for
eating
and
demand for eating and
drinking
drinking places.
places.
Officer
Officer Worker
Worker Summary
Summary
Office Worker Spending
Retail in Select Categories
Eating & Drinking Places
Lunch
Dinner/Drinks
Total
2012
2012 Demand
Demand Potential:
Potential: $51.36M
$51.36M
2012 Expenditures
$
$
$
$
$
10,968,355
13,211,673
12,135,984
1,075,689
24,180,028
2007
2007 Demand
Demand Potential:
Potential: $48.53M
$48.53M
New
New Demand:
Demand: $2.83M
$2.83M
Source: ESRI Business Information Solutions; InfoUSA; Census of Retail Trade; ICSC; Woods and Poole; Economics Research Associates, 2008.
ERA No: 17467 – Columbia Farrow Road Retail Analysis
Page10
Retail Environment: 2007 - 2012 Retail Demand Summary
Demand
Demand Growth
Growth Summary
Summary
Growth
Growth projections
projections show
show that
that demand
demand for
for both
both the
the select
select retail
retail categories
categories as
as well
well as
as at
at
eating
eating and
and drinking
drinking places
places will
will increase
increase through
through 2012
2012 due
due to
to population
population growth,
growth, real
real
income
income growth,
growth, and
and employment
employment growth.
growth. This
This analysis
analysis is
is in
in 2007
2007 dollars.
dollars.
100%
100% of
of the
the unmet
unmet demand
demand cannot
cannot be
be captured
captured along
along the
the corridor.
corridor. Consumers
Consumers make
make aa
large
part
of
their
purchases
near
home,
but
all
will
at
some
point
make
purchases
large part of their purchases near home, but all will at some point make purchases
elsewhere.
elsewhere.
2007
2007 –– 2012
2012 Retail
Retail Sales/Surplus
Sales/Surplus Summary
Summary
$25.00
(Millions of $)
$20.00
$15.00
$10.00
$5.00
$0.00
Select Retail Categories
Eating and Drinking Places
07 - 12 Demand Growth
$1.41
$1.41
2007 Uncaptured Retail Demand
$13.32
$17.69
2007 Retail Sales
$8.37
$0.76
Source: ESRI Business Information Solutions; InfoUSA; Census of Retail Trade; ICSC; Woods and Poole; Economics Research Associates, 2008.
ERA No: 17467 – Columbia Farrow Road Retail Analysis
Page11
Corridor Retail Assessment: Strengths, Weaknesses, Needs/Concerns
Overall
Overall Retail
Retail Demand
Demand
Total
Total retail
retail demand
demand from
from all
all market
market segments
segments in
in all
all
spending
categories
is
$89.63M,
the
select
categories
spending categories is $89.63M, the select categories
represent
represent 55%
55% of
of retail
retail demand
demand across
across all
all categories.
categories.
Retail
Retail Assessment
Assessment
Market
Market Strengths
Strengths
¾
¾ Location
Location along
along aa major
major traffic
traffic corridor
corridor means
means potential
potential
customers
are
constantly
passing
along
the
corridor.
customers are constantly passing along the corridor.
¾
¾ Many
Many long
long time
time businesses
businesses which
which are
are have
have been
been able
able to
to
maintain
their
customer
base.
maintain their customer base.
The
The overall
overall assessment
assessment of
of Farrow
Farrow Road
Road retail
retail was
was that
that the
the
sparse
sparse offerings
offerings were
were innovative
innovative and
and perform
perform well,
well, but
but
the
corridor
is
overall
not
a
preferable
location
for
the corridor is overall not a preferable location for
retail.
retail. The
The corridor
corridor is
is primarily
primarily residential
residential with
with many
many
physical
constraints
that
limit
both
the
potential
physical constraints that limit both the potential of
of
existing
existing retail
retail and
and possibilities
possibilities for
for new
new retail
retail
development.
development.
¾
¾ Most
Most parcels
parcels are
are too
too small
small to
to locate
locate major
major retail
retail
development
on
and
many
businesses
currently
development on and many businesses currently located
located
along
along the
the corridor
corridor suffer
suffer from
from inadequate
inadequate space
space and
and
parking.
parking.
Many
Many businesses
businesses along
along the
the corridor
corridor are
are located
located on
on
parcels,
or
an
assemblage
of
parcels,
which
were
parcels, or an assemblage of parcels, which were
originally
originally configured
configured for
for residential
residential use.
use. The
The
orientation
orientation of
of these
these parcels,
parcels, even
even in
in mass,
mass, is
is often
often
unsuitable
for
retail
usage
and
does
not
permit
unsuitable for retail usage and does not permit
adequate
adequate space
space for
for parking.
parking.
¾
¾ The
The railroad
railroad tracks
tracks which
which run
run parallel
parallel to
to the
the road
road and
and
make
a
large
part
of
the
corridor
unable
to
support
make a large part of the corridor unable to support retail.
retail.
With
With retail
retail leakage
leakage of
of $31M
$31M annually,
annually, aa demand
demand
potential
potential of
of $40.14M
$40.14M and
and sales
sales of
of $9.13M,
$9.13M, the
the area
area
has
a
leakage/surplus
factor
of
-68.
This
indicates
has a leakage/surplus factor of -68. This indicates aa
leakage
leakage of
of retail
retail sales
sales where
where aa large
large portion
portion of
of persons
persons
are
are going
going to
to other
other areas
areas to
to make
make purchases.
purchases. With
With
proper
proper improvement
improvement and
and programming
programming retail
retail sales
sales can
can
be
be increased,
increased, although
although aa 100%
100% capture
capture rate
rate is
is never
never
possible.
possible.
ERA No: 17467 – Columbia Farrow Road Retail Analysis
Market
Market Weaknesses
Weaknesses
¾
¾ The
The corridor
corridor lacks
lacks proper
proper sidewalks
sidewalks in
in many
many areas
areas creating
creating
aa mobility
mobility constraint
constraint for
for car-less
car-less customers
customers from
from the
the local
local
neighborhoods.
neighborhoods.
Future
Future Needs/Concerns
Needs/Concerns
¾
¾ There
There is
is aa need
need for
for an
an infrastructure
infrastructure improvements
improvements along
along
the
corridor.
the corridor.
¾
¾ New
New retail
retail would
would benefit
benefit from
from being
being grouped
grouped together
together on
on
large
lots
which
would
satisfy
the
space
need
of
retail
large lots which would satisfy the space need of retail
uses
uses which
which differ
differ from
from the
the space
space needs
needs of
of residential
residential uses.
uses.
Page12
Retail Assessment
Residential
Residential Character
Character
The
The largely
largely residential
residential character
character of
of Farrow
Farrow Road
Road makes
makes
retail
an
out
of
place
use
in
many
parts.
retail an out of place use in many parts.
Parcel
Parcel Size
Size
Parcel
Parcel size
size is
is an
an issue
issue along
along the
the corridor
corridor as
as many
many are
are not
not
large
large enough
enough to
to support
support retail
retail and
and even
even when
when grouped
grouped
do
do not
not have
have enough
enough depth.
depth.
Railroad
Railroad Tracks
Tracks
The
The railroad
railroad tracks
tracks make
make nearly
nearly aa quarter
quarter of
of the
the corridor
corridor
unsuitable
unsuitable for
for development.
development.
ERA No: 17467 – Columbia Farrow Road Retail Analysis
Sidewalks
Sidewalks
Adequate
Adequate sidewalks
sidewalks are
are essential
essential to
to facilitate
facilitate pedestrian
pedestrian
flow
between
retail
offerings.
flow between retail offerings.
Page13
Strategic Assessment and Recommendations
Strategic
Strategic Needs
Needs Assessment
Assessment
ERA’s
ERA’s analysis
analysis of
of the
the Farrow
Farrow Road
Road corridor
corridor
found
found that
that new
new retail
retail should
should be
be integrated
integrated
in
a
fashion
that
takes
into
consideration
in a fashion that takes into consideration
the
the residential
residential context
context of
of the
the surrounding
surrounding
neighborhood
as
well
as
demands
neighborhood as well as demands
generated
generated by
by the
the high
high traffic
traffic volume.
volume. Given
Given
these
these demand
demand generators,
generators, new
new retail
retail would
would
be
be best
best strategically
strategically programmed
programmed to
to focus
focus
on
on food,
food, gas,
gas, and
and convenience
convenience oriented
oriented
offerings
offerings
Any
Any new
new retail
retail should
should be
be part
part of
of aa
concentrated
development
rather
concentrated development rather than
than
individual
sites
.
Retail
functions
work
individual sites . Retail functions work best
best
when
when clustered
clustered together;
together; such
such as
as in
in nodes,
nodes,
malls,
malls, or
or shopping
shopping strips,
strips, as
as this
this enables
enables
retail
retail synergy
synergy to
to develop.
develop. When
When retail
retail
synergy
synergy develops
develops customers
customers attracted
attracted to
to
the
retail
clusters
typically
spend
more
the retail clusters typically spend more ..
Given
Given that
that the
the surrounding
surrounding neighborhoods
neighborhoods
have
a
population
which
do
have a population which do not,
not, for
for aa large
large
part,
part, own
own cars,
cars, there
there is
is aa need
need for
for
improvements
improvements to
to sidewalks
sidewalks in
in order
order to
to
better
better accommodate
accommodate pedestrians.
pedestrians.
ERA No: 17467 – Columbia Farrow Road Retail Analysis
Recommendation
Recommendation 1:
1: Selective
Selective New
New Retail
Retail
ERA’s
ERA’s analysis
analysis of
of new
new retail
retail found
found that
that itit would
would work
work best
best ifif itit
focused
focused on
on aa few
few select
select types
types of
of businesses.
businesses. Choosing
Choosing these
these
businesses
should
take
into
consideration
the
needs
for
businesses should take into consideration the needs for store
store types
types
which
will
appease
both
the
local
residents
as
well
as
be
able
to
which will appease both the local residents as well as be able to
capture
capture aa portion
portion of
of the
the retail
retail needs
needs of
of the
the commuters
commuters traveling
traveling
along
the
corridor.
along the corridor.
Recommendation
Recommendation 2:
2: Concentrate
Concentrate Retail
Retail Development,
Development, Maintain
Maintain
Residential
Context
Residential Context
As
As Farrow
Farrow road
road is
is aa primarily
primarily residential
residential corridor,
corridor, new
new retail
retail should
should be
be
integrated
in
a
fashion
that
does
not
disrupt
the
continuity
of
integrated in a fashion that does not disrupt the continuity of
existing
existing residential
residential areas.
areas. This
This could
could be
be achieved
achieved by
by concentrating
concentrating
new
new retail
retail development
development at
at undeveloped
undeveloped large
large lots
lots along
along the
the
corridor.
ERA’s
analysis
found
few
opportunities
along
the
corridor. ERA’s analysis found few opportunities along the corridor
corridor
for
for new
new retail
retail development.
development.
No
No change
change outcome
outcome
Without
Without any
any intervention,
intervention, the
the business
business along
along Farrow
Farrow Road
Road are
are likely
likely to
to
continue
continue drawing
drawing from
from the
the dedicated
dedicated customer
customer base,
base, however
however the
the
corridor
corridor will
will likely
likely not
not expand
expand its
its retail
retail offerings
offerings and
and capture.
capture.
Page14
Increased Spending Potential Capture
Summary
Summary
Supportable
Supportable Square
Square Feet
Feet
New
New retail
retail could
could increase
increase the
the corridors
corridors demand
demand capture
capture by
by 6%
6%
–– 8%.
8%. This
This would
would mean
mean capturing
capturing $1.39
$1.39 -- $1.85M
$1.85M of
of
demand
demand for
for retail
retail in
in the
the select
select categories
categories and
and $1.19M
$1.19M -$1.58M
$1.58M of
of demand
demand at
at eating
eating and
and drinking
drinking places.
places.
The
The supportable
supportable size
size of
of aa retail
retail node
node is
is estimated
estimated
by
by applying
applying aa ‘sales
‘sales productivity’,
productivity’, or
or estimated
estimated
sales
per
square
foot,
to
the
select
retail
sales per square foot, to the select retail
categories.
categories.
In
In order
order for
for new
new retail
retail to
to capture
capture additional
additional spending,
spending, itit would
would
need
need to
to be
be well
well programmed
programmed to
to meet
meet gaps
gaps in
in demand
demand and
and
supply
supply and
and strategically
strategically placed.
placed.
Different
Different retail
retail categories
categories typically
typically achieve
achieve
different
different sales
sales per
per square
square foot.
foot. This
This sales
sales
productivity
productivity estimate
estimate is
is based
based upon
upon ERA’s
ERA’s
market
research
of
what
well
performing
market research of what well performing
quality
quality retailers
retailers can
can achieve
achieve along
along the
the
corridor.
This
sale
productivity
estimate
corridor. This sale productivity estimate may
may
differ
differ from
from currently
currently achieved
achieved productivity
productivity
rates
rates and
and shouldn’t
shouldn’t be
be used
used to
to retroactively
retroactively
estimate
current
retail
inventory
estimate current retail inventory square
square
footage.
footage.
This
This following
following recommendations
recommendations are
are strategies
strategies for
for capturing
capturing
unmet
unmet and
and new
new demand
demand through
through the
the creation
creation of
of new
new
businesses.
businesses.
$2.56M
$2.56M –– $3.42M
$3.42M of
of additional
additional captured
captured spending
spending could
could
support
10,858
to
14,478
sq
ft
of
new
retail
by
2012.
support 10,858 to 14,478 sq ft of new retail by 2012.
ERA
ERA estimates
estimates that
that the
the new
new supportable
supportable square
square feet
feet will
will be
be
36%
for
eating
and
drinking
places
and
64%
for
the
other
36% for eating and drinking places and 64% for the other
convenience
convenience oriented
oriented retail
retail categories.
categories.
Estimated
Estimated Sales
Sales Productivity
Productivity (PSF)
(PSF)
$350
Additional
Additional $$ Captured:
Captured: $2.56M
$2.56M –– $3.42M
$3.42M
Additional
Additional Sq
Sq Ft
Ft Supported:
Supported: 10,900
10,900 –– 14,500
14,500
$300
$250
$200
$150
$100
$50
$0
ERA No: 17467 – Columbia Farrow Road Retail Analysis
Page15
Eating
and
Drinking
Places
$300
Select
Retail
Categories
$200
Multiple Factors Will Ultimately Affect the New Supportable Square Feet and
Success of New Retail
Factors
Factors Affecting
Affecting Supportable
Supportable New
New Retail
Retail
The
The Farrow
Farrow Road
Road retail
retail market
market could
could support
support 10,900
10,900 to
to 14,500
14,500 sq
sq ft
ft of
of new
new retail
retail assuming
assuming that
that the
the new
new retail
retail captures
captures
an
additional
6%
–
8%
of
retail
demand.
It
is
recommended
that
new
retail
along
the
corridor
is
built
in
clusters
an additional 6% – 8% of retail demand. It is recommended that new retail along the corridor is built in clusters
instead
instead of
of as
as single
single stores.
stores. Capturing
Capturing this
this demand
demand would
would mean
mean either
either finding
finding appropriate
appropriate tenants
tenants for
for existing
existing vacant
vacant
spaces
spaces or
or building
building new
new retail.
retail. Because
Because of
of the
the physical
physical constraints
constraints of
of the
the corridor,
corridor, there
there are
are few
few vacancies
vacancies which
which could
could
support
quality
new
retail
and
there
are
only
a
few
areas
which
would
be
suitable
for
new
retail
development
support quality new retail and there are only a few areas which would be suitable for new retail development
AA retail
retail mix
mix of
of 10,900
10,900 to
to 14,500
14,500 sq
sq ft
ft would
would be
be small
small and
and may
may only
only support
support 33 –– 55 new
new stores
stores in
in what
what would
would be
be
classified
as
a
neighborhood
shopping
center.
This
retail
mix
may
work
best
with
a
mix
of
other
uses,
such
classified as a neighborhood shopping center. This retail mix may work best with a mix of other uses, such as
as
residential
residential and
and office
office space.
space.
Further
Further retail
retail development
development would
would need
need to
to be
be supplemented
supplemented by
by both
both further
further infrastructure
infrastructure improvement
improvement and
and investment
investment
as
as well
well as
as educational
educational opportunities
opportunities to
to business
business owners
owners in
in order
order to
to best
best ensure
ensure aa cohesive
cohesive and
and well
well formed
formed retail
retail
cluster.
cluster.
Factors
Factors Affecting
Affecting Supportable
Supportable Size
Size of
of Retail
Retail Node
Node
10,900 SF
12,700 SF
14,500 SF
Tenant Mix
Ill-formed
Well-formed
Site Location
Low Visibility
High Visibility
Competitive Context
Low
ERA No: 17467 – Columbia Farrow Road Retail Analysis
High
The success and appeal of new retail clusters is directly linked to its
tenant mix and its function as a destination.
Proper site placement of a node is important in that low visibility will be
a detriment to all businesses which are clustered together.
The trade areas are capable of spending only a certain amount. If
more $$ are spent in one store less $$ will be spent elsewhere.
Page16
Recommendation 1: Selective New Retail Offerings
Recommendation
Recommendation 11
Tennant
Tennant Example
Example 2:
2: 7-11
7-11
Any
Any new
new retail
retail along
along the
the corridors
corridors should
should focus
focus
on
basic
quick
consumer
services.
The
on basic quick consumer services. The
corridor
corridor is
is primarily
primarily non-retail
non-retail in
in nature.
nature. The
The
new
retail
offerings
should
be
something
new retail offerings should be something
that
that will
will work
work to
to satisfy
satisfy needs
needs which
which
residents
residents do
do not
not want
want to
to travel
travel far
far for
for and
and
that
commuters
along
the
corridor
can
that commuters along the corridor can make
make
aa quick
quick stop
stop for.
for.
AA store
store like
like 7-11
7-11 would
would service
service the
the area
area by
by providing
providing aa good
good deal
deal of
of
convenience
goods
as
well
as
some
prepared
foods.
The
area
is
convenience goods as well as some prepared foods. The area is in
in
need
need of
of aa quick
quick food
food services
services place
place for
for local
local residents
residents and
and this
this
would
would could
could also
also serve
serve commuters
commuters passing
passing through.
through.
10,900
10,900 to
to 14,500
14,500 square
square feet
feet of
of retail
retail could
could
support
support aa small
small neighborhood
neighborhood style
style shopping
shopping
center
with
5
8
new
stores
in
the
next
center with 5 - 8 new stores in the next five
five
years.
Examples
of
typical
tenant
sizes
are:
years. Examples of typical tenant sizes are:
¾
¾ Personal
Personal Care
Care 2,000
2,000 –– 10,000
10,000 SF
SF
¾
¾ Apparel
Apparel 3,500
3,500 SF
SF
Tennant
Tennant Example
Example 3:
3: CVS
CVS
AA drugstore
drugstore could
could provide
provide aa basic
basic need
need for
for the
the corridor.
corridor. The
The nearest
nearest
drugstore,
drugstore, aa CVS,
CVS, is
is located
located at
at the
the Harden
Harden St
St Exit
Exit of
of Rt-277.
Rt-277. AA new
new
drugstore
would
be
best
situated
closer
to
I-20
on
Farrow
Road.
drugstore would be best situated closer to I-20 on Farrow Road.
Tennant
Tennant Example
Example 3:
3: Quick
Quick Food
Food
AA quick
quick service
service food
food stop
stop would
would provide
provide aa quick
quick prepared
prepared food
food
option
for
residents
and
commuters.
Such
a
place
could
option for residents and commuters. Such a place could be
be locally
locally
owned
and
serve
breakfast,
lunch,
snacks,
and
packaged
foods.
owned and serve breakfast, lunch, snacks, and packaged foods.
¾
¾ Accessories
Accessories 2,000
2,000 –– 10,000
10,000 SF
SF
¾
¾ Personal
Personal Care
Care 2,000
2,000 –– 10,000
10,000 SF
SF
¾
¾ Household
Household Furnishings
Furnishings 3,500
3,500 –– 10,000
10,000 SF
SF
¾
¾ Grocery
Grocery Stores
Stores 30,000
30,000 to
to 65,000
65,000
¾
¾ Restaurants
Restaurants 3,000
3,000 –– 6,000+
6,000+ SF
SF
¾
¾ Quick
Quick Service
Service food
food 1,200
1,200 –– 3,500
3,500 SF
SF
ERA No: 17467 – Columbia Farrow Road Retail Analysis
Tennant
Tennant Example
Example 3:
3: Small
Small National
National Bank
Bank
There
There is
is aa need
need for
for aa full
full service
service bank
bank to
to satisfy
satisfy the
the basic
basic financial
financial
services
needs
of
residents..
Neighborhoods
which
only
services needs of residents.. Neighborhoods which only offer
offer
check
check cashing
cashing places
places suffer
suffer because
because the
the cost
cost of
of banking
banking for
for
residents
cuts
into
what
they
have
available
to
spend
on
residents cuts into what they have available to spend on retail.
retail. AA
major
major bank
bank branch
branch would
would occupy
occupy about
about 4,000
4,000 sq
sq ft.
ft.
Page17
Recommendation 2: Concentrate Retail – New Development
Recommendation
Recommendation 22
The
The best
best locations
locations for
for aa new
new retail
retail
development
are
at
the
intersections
development are at the intersections of
of
Fontaine
Fontaine Rd.
Rd. and
and Farrow
Farrow Rd.
Rd. or
or at
at Farrow
Farrow
Rd.
Rd. and
and Cushman;
Cushman; these
these are
are the
the largest
largest
areas
areas of
of undeveloped
undeveloped land
land and
and would
would be
be an
an
ideal
location
for
a
group
of
service
oriented
ideal location for a group of service oriented
stores.
stores.
Important
Important consideration
consideration for
for new
new retail
retail
development:
development:
¾
¾ Preserving
Preserving the
the residential
residential nature
nature and
and
continuity
continuity along
along Farrow
Farrow Road
Road –– ItIt would
would not
not
be
be advisable
advisable to
to situate
situate aa new
new strip
strip mall
mall
between
homes,
new
development
between homes, new development should
should
be
be considerate
considerate of
of its
its surroundings.
surroundings.
¾
¾ Large
Large scale
scale development
development locations
locations are
are
limited
limited –– Much
Much of
of the
the corridor
corridor is
is constrained
constrained
by
by either
either railroad
railroad tracks,
tracks, residences,
residences, or
or poor
poor
parcel
parcel configuration
configuration and
and sizing
sizing for
for retail.
retail.
¾
¾ Proximity
Proximity is
is not
not aa guarantee
guarantee of
of success
success ––
while
while there
there is
is aa gap
gap in
in demand
demand and
and supply
supply
along
along the
the corridor,
corridor, the
the competitive
competitive context
context
of
the
city
should
be
taken
into
account.
of the city should be taken into account.
There
There are
are retail
retail opportunities
opportunities out
out of
of the
the
trade
area
that
are
currently
meeting
trade area that are currently meeting
demand.
demand.
ERA No: 17467 – Columbia Farrow Road Retail Analysis
Intersection
Intersection of
of Farrow
Farrow Road
Road &
& Fontaine
Fontaine Road
Road
The
The intersection
intersection of
of
Farrow
Road
and
Farrow Road and
Fontaine
Fontaine road
road across
across
from
from the
the gas
gas station
station
provides
provides aa large
large
unoccupied
unoccupied plot
plot of
of land
land
which
would
be
suitable
which would be suitable
for
for new
new retail
retail
development.
development. This
This area
area
would
allow
retail
to
would allow retail to be
be
developed
developed in
in mass.
mass.
Intersection
Intersection of
of Farrow
Farrow Road
Road &
& Cushman
Cushman Dr.
Dr.
The
The intersection
intersection of
of Farrow
Farrow
Road
Road and
and Cushman
Cushman
drives
drives offers
offers aa large
large
deep
plot
of
land
deep plot of land from
from
Cushman
Cushman Drive
Drive to
to the
the
China
Inn
restaurant.
China Inn restaurant.
This
This area
area would
would be
be
ideal
for
a
mass
of
ideal for a mass of retail
retail
and
would
offer
space
and would offer space
to
to develop
develop adequate
adequate
parking.
parking.
Page18
No Change Outcomes
No
No Change
Change Outcomes
Outcomes
Given
Given that
that no
no action
action is
is taken
taken along
along the
the corridor
corridor to
to improve
improve the
the retail
retail environment
environment
there
there are
are aa variety
variety of
of possible
possible future
future outcomes
outcomes within
within the
the next
next 55 –– 77 years.
years. These
These
outcomes
are
summarized
in
worst
case
(sales
volume
decline),
best
case
(sales
outcomes are summarized in worst case (sales volume decline), best case (sales
volume
volume and
and retail
retail offerings
offerings increase),
increase), and
and baseline
baseline (sales
(sales volume
volume stays
stays same).
same).
Sales
Sales Volume
Volume Decline
Decline
The
The retail
retail sales
sales volume
volume along
along the
the corridor
corridor could
could decrease
decrease due
due to
to better
better retail
retail offering
offering elsewhere
elsewhere
in
in the
the city.
city. Given
Given that
that there
there is
is aa high
high amount
amount of
of leakage
leakage already
already along
along the
the corridor,
corridor, residents
residents
may
start
spending
more
along
other
corridors
or
downtown.
Factors
which
will
influence
may start spending more along other corridors or downtown. Factors which will influence this
this
outcome
outcome are
are the
the competitive
competitive environment,
environment, or
or retail
retail offerings
offerings elsewhere,
elsewhere, as
as well
well as
as the
the future
future
programming
programming and
and offerings
offerings of
of the
the Farrow
Farrow Road
Road corridor.
corridor.
Current
Current Sales
Sales Volume
Volume Stays
Stays Same
Same
Given
Given no
no intervention
intervention or
or improvement,
improvement, the
the current
current sales
sales volume
volume could
could stay
stay the
the same.
same. Many
Many
businesses
businesses along
along the
the corridor
corridor have
have aa long
long time
time and
and dedicated
dedicated customer
customer base.
base. Given
Given that
that these
these
customers
customers continue
continue their
their long
long time
time support
support of
of the
the Farrow
Farrow Road
Road retail
retail and
and new
new customers
customers are
are
not
attracted,
the
retail
sales
volume
will
stay
the
same.
not attracted, the retail sales volume will stay the same.
Sales
Sales Volume
Volume Increase
Increase
Other
Other interventions
interventions could
could have
have the
the affect
affect of
of positively
positively influencing
influencing the
the corridor.
corridor. Infrastructure
Infrastructure
and
and safety
safety improvements;
improvements; such
such as
as sidewalk,
sidewalk, lighting,
lighting, and
and pedestrian
pedestrian circulation
circulation
improvements,
improvements, could
could benefit
benefit the
the area
area and
and increase
increase sales
sales by
by allowing
allowing for
for better
better pedestrian
pedestrian
circulation
and
by
positively
influencing
views
about
safety
that
negatively
affect
circulation and by positively influencing views about safety that negatively affect consumers
consumers
willingness
willingness to
to shop
shop along
along the
the corridor.
corridor.
ERA No: 17467 – Columbia Farrow Road Retail Analysis
Page19
Farrow Road Analysis Summary
Summary
Summary
Summary
Summary of
of Recommendation
Recommendation 11
ERA’s
ERA’s analysis
analysis of
of Farrow
Farrow Road
Road found
found that
that the
the corridor
corridor is
is for
for
aa large
part
not
an
ideal
location
for
retail.
Although
not
large part not an ideal location for retail. Although not
in
in the
the best
best location,
location, interviews
interviews with
with local
local
businesspersons
found
that
current
retailers
businesspersons found that current retailers have
have
managed
managed to
to be
be both
both creative
creative and
and innovative
innovative in
in order
order to
to
be
be be
be successful.
successful.
New
New retail
retail along
along Farrow
Farrow Road
Road should
should offer
offer basic
basic quick
quick
services
to
residents
and
commuters.
A
convenience
services to residents and commuters. A convenience
store,
store, drug
drug store,
store, small
small grocery
grocery store,
store, or
or bank
bank are
are
recommended.
recommended. In
In order
order to
to be
be successful
successful Farrow
Farrow
Road
retail
should
be
carefully
selected
to
Road retail should be carefully selected to meet
meet gaps
gaps
in
in current
current demand
demand and
and supply.
supply.
There
There are
are few
few locations
locations for
for new
new retail
retail development
development along
along
the
the corridor.
corridor. Physical
Physical constraints,
constraints, along
along with
with the
the largely
largely
residential
character,
restrict
where
new
retail
can
residential character, restrict where new retail can locate.
locate.
ERA
ERA found
found two
two locations
locations along
along the
the corridor
corridor that
that would
would
be
be aa suitable.
suitable. New
New retail
retail development
development should
should add
add
essential
essential basic
basic services
services and
and all
all new
new retail
retail should
should be
be
developed
developed in
in close
close proximity.
proximity. Farrow
Farrow Road
Road retail
retail is
is largely
largely
dispersed
along
the
corridor,
clustering
would
be
dispersed along the corridor, clustering would be
beneficial.
beneficial.
Farrow
Farrow Road
Road business
business owners
owners have
have managed
managed to
to be
be
successful
successful by
by maintaining
maintaining aa dedicated
dedicated customer
customer base
base and
and
through
innovative
business
strategies.
They
have
been
through innovative business strategies. They have been
adaptive
adaptive and
and managed
managed to
to succeed
succeed along
along Farrow
Farrow Road,
Road,
but
but will
will continue
continue facing
facing challenges
challenges created
created by
by the
the
competitive
context
of
the
area.
competitive context of the area.
ERA No: 17467 – Columbia Farrow Road Retail Analysis
Page20
Summary
Summary of
of Recommendation
Recommendation 22
New
New development
development would
would present
present the
the opportunity
opportunity to
to
cluster
retail.
Given
that
appropriate
space
does
cluster retail. Given that appropriate space does not
not
exist,
exist, ERA
ERA has
has made
made recommendation
recommendation on
on what
what will
will
be
be good
good alternative
alternative locations.
locations.
Summary
Summary of
of no
no change
change
Given
Given no
no intervention
intervention along
along the
the corridor,
corridor, itit will
will face
face
risks
risks and
and perform
perform accordingly
accordingly to
to how
how the
the
environment
environment surrounding
surrounding itit changes.
changes. Given
Given no
no
change
change itit will
will be
be difficult
difficult to
to determine
determine exact
exact
outcomes.
outcomes.
Appendix
Farrow Road Corridor Trade Area Overview
Summary Demographics
2007
2012
CAGR
Real Growth Rate
Population
Households
Average Houshold Income
Median Household Income
Total Area Income
12,418
4,698
$39,382
$28,292
$489,045,676
12,294
4,720
$45,027
$32,547
$553,561,938
-0.20%
0.09%
2.72%
2.84%
2.51%
0.56%
2007
2012
392
11,412
10,477
11,492
Workforce
Businesses
Employees
Office Employees
Demand (Retail Spending Potential)
Residents
Employees
Inflow
Total
Supply (Retail Sales)
Retail (Select Categories)
Apparel & Apparel Services
HH Furnishings & Electronics
Personal Care & Services
Food and Beverage
Total
Area Leakage/Retail Gap (2007)
Retail
Food and Beverage
Leakage/Surplus Factor
Retail
$11,530,866
$9,999,249
$167,460
$21,697,575
2007
F&B
$6,381,433
$12,044,359
$22,800
$18,448,592
2012
Retail
F&B
$11,860,217
$6,563,703
$10,968,355
$13,211,673
$167,460
$22,800
$22,996,033
$19,798,177
2007
$8,373,000
$310,000
$8,063,000
$0
$760,000
$9,133,000
-$13,324,575
-$17,688,592
-62.9%
-$31,013,167
Source: ESRI Business Information Solutions; InfoUSA; Economics Research Associates, 2008.
ERA No: 17467 – Columbia Farrow Road Retail Analysis
Page21
Appendix
Additional 2012 Retail Capture
Low Estimate ~
High Estimate ~
Retail
6%
8%
Additional Market Area Captured
Expenditures
Low
High
Residents
Employees
Inflow
Subtotal
$711,613
$658,101
$10,048
$1,379,762
$948,817
$877,468
$13,397
$1,839,683
Food and Beverage
Residents
Employees
Inflow
Subtotal
Low
$393,822
$792,700
$1,368
$1,187,891
High
$525,096
$1,056,934
$1,824
$1,583,854
Productivity
$ 200 PSF
$ 300 PSF
Source: ESRI Business Information Solutions; InfoUSA; Economics Research Associates, 2008.
ERA No: 17467 – Columbia Farrow Road Retail Analysis
Page22
Supportable New
Square Feet
Low
High
6,899
9,198
Low
High
3,960
5,280
General Limiting Conditions
Every reasonable effort has been made to ensure that the data contained in this report are accurate as of
the date of this study; however, factors exist that are outside the control of Economics Research
Associates and that may affect the estimates and/or projections noted herein. This study is based on
estimates, assumptions and other information developed by Economics Research Associates from its
independent research effort, general knowledge of the industry, and information provided by and
consultations with the client and the client’s representatives. No responsibility is assumed for inaccuracies
in reporting by the client, the client’s agent and representatives, or any other data source used in preparing
or presenting this study.
This report is based on information that was current as of February, 2008 and Economics Research
Associates has not undertaken any update of its research effort since such date.
Because future events and circumstances, many of which are not known as of the date of this study, may
affect the estimates contained therein, no warranty or representation is made by Economics Research
Associates that any of the projected values or results contained in this study will actually be achieved.
Possession of this study does not carry with it the right of publication thereof or to use the name of
“Economics Research Associates” in any manner without first obtaining the prior written consent of
Economics Research Associates. No abstracting, excerpting or summarization of this study may be made
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prior written consent has first been obtained from Economics Research Associates.
This study is qualified in its entirety by, and should be considered in light of, these limitations, conditions
and considerations.
ERA No: 17467 – Columbia Farrow Road Retail Analysis
Page23