The SIJ Transactions on Industrial, Financial & Business Management (IFBM), Vol. 3, No. 8, October 2015 Stockholders’ Special Benefit System and Shop Events in Japan: An Event Study Analysis Michiko Miyamoto* *Department of Management Science and Engineering, Akita Prefectural University, Yurihonjo, Akita, JAPAN. E-Mail: miyamoto{at}ism{at}ac{at}jp Abstract—Stock prices are affected by a number of factors and events. Marketing strategies based on increasing customer lifetime value can have a positive impact on shareholder value and influence stock prices in a predictable manner [Kumar & Denish, 12]. A system called “kabunushi-yutai” in Japan, which translated means “a shareholders' special benefit plan,” is a gift that a growing number of Japanese companies send to stockholders as a courtesy, to show their appreciation for the support of their stockholders. The purpose of this study is to compare the impact of shareholders’ special benefit plan and the impact of sales promotion of the worldwide recognized ice cream scoop shop have on its daily stock returns. An event study method is applied to isolate the events and measure the abnormal returns of this shop for 2011 and 2012 in terms of the shareholders' special benefit plan and sales campaign activities. The empirical results suggest that the averaged abnormal returns and cumulative abnormal returns are increased toward the date of allotment in order to capture shareholders’ special benefit. It implies that the shareholders’ special benefit successfully attract investors, particularly individual ones. The results also show that each sales campaign affects the stock price in some extent. Keywords—Averaged Abnormal Returns; Cumulative Abnormal Returns; Event Study; Dividend; Shareholders’ Special Benefit; Sales Promotion. Abbreviations—Abnormal Returns (AR); Average Abnormal Returns (AAR); Cumulative Abnormal Return (CAR); Cumulative Averaged Abnormal Returns (CAAR); Japan Air Lines (JAL); Tokyo Stock Price Index (TOPIX). I. S INTRODUCTION TOCK prices are affected by a number of factors and events, some of which influence stock prices directly and others that do so indirectly. One of factors which affect stock prices is announced earnings (e.g., Ball & Brown, [2], Joy et al., [10], Watts [25], Rendleman et al., [20], and Foster et al., [8]). Knowledge of the contents of the forthcoming earnings announcement is known to yield an abnormal return. Many firms conduct marketing activities to promote products, brands or stores as such are one way to increase sales, and profit margin. Srinivasan & Hanssens [21] explore marketing concepts such as brand equity, customer equity, customer satisfaction, product quality, marketing-mix actions, and research and development, and establish the links among marketing actions, value creation, and observed market values. Dividends are treated as a proxy for estimated future earnings. The dividends increase will send a message to the market that the future earnings will increase, and vice versa ISSN: 2321-242X [Miller & Modigliani, 14]. Using the event study on event window surrounding the day of dividend announcement, a significant positive reaction between stock dividend announcement and stock return have found, but it was a significant negative relation between cash dividend announcement and the stock return [Wang, 24]. A system called “kabunushi-yutai” in Japan, which translated means “a shareholders' special benefit plan,” is a gift that a growing number of Japanese companies send to stockholders as a courtesy, to show their appreciation for the support of their stockholders. According to Daiwa Investor Relations [7], number of companies which conduct shareholders' special benefit plans in 1992 was 247, has grown to 1,150, about 30% of entire Tokyo Stock Exchange listed companies of 3,600, at the end of September, 2014 (see figure 1). “A shareholders' special benefit plan” is non-taxable gifts, which give away “kabununi-yutai-ken,” i.e., “the stockholders complimentary tickets.” The practice seems to be unique to Japanese corporations, which give special © 2015 | Published by The Standard International Journals (The SIJ) 123 The SIJ Transactions on Industrial, Financial & Business Management (IFBM), Vol. 3, No. 8, October 2015 treatment to shareholders when there are no dividends to distribute. If the company is a manufacturer, it may actually give away its products or discounts on its products. In the case of Japan Air Lines (JAL), shareholders received coupons that could be used for discounts of up to 50 percent on air fares, tours, hotels and other JAL-related services [Brasor & Tsubuku, 5]. dividend, sales promotions and event study, and the hypotheses are stated. Section 3 describes data. Section 4 presents the methodology. Section 5 presents the results of the event studies. The results are discussed in Section 6. II. LITERATURE 2.1. The Stock Price, Dividend and An Event Study 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 0 Figure 1: Number of Companies Conduct Shareholders' Special Benefits Plans Source: Daiwa Investor Relation [7] The stockholders complimentary tickets system works like those of dividends. In order to receive these tickets, shareholders have to be in the shareholder list of a certain day. The Oriental Land group, the operator of Tokyo Disney Resort, for example, provides complimentary passports twice a year to the Oriental Land stockholders whose names are listed on the registered and/or beneficial stockholders' lists as of September 30 and March 31, in proportion to the number of stocks held. In addition to the current stockholder benefit program, Oriental Land will distribute a complimentary passport ticket for stockholders for Tokyo Disney Resort’s Anniversaries, held every five years [OLC Group, 17]. The shareholders' special benefit plan seems to attract many individual investors to the stock market. The purpose of this study is to compare the impact of shareholders’ special benefit plan and the impact of sales promotion at one of the worldwide recognized ice cream scoop shop have on the its daily stock returns. The shop is one of the affiliates of a Japan-based company mainly engaged in the operation of ice cream store chains, as well as the manufacture and sale of ice cream products. The shop offers various kinds of ice cream, sherbet and specialty desert. In order to boost sales, the shop holds several price related and seasonal promotions. The stock of the shop’s parent company is listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange. The author applies an event study method to isolate the events and measure the abnormal returns of this shop for 2011 and 2012 in terms of the shareholders' special benefit plan and sales campaign activities. The rest of the paper is organized as follows. Section 2 introduces previous research using the stock price and ISSN: 2321-242X How dividend policy decisions affect a firm’s stock price have been studies for many years by scholars using data of the stock exchanges around the globe. Charest [6] selected dividend information from the 1947-67 period of the New York Stock Exchange, and analysed the risk and return behaviour of common stocks around dividend changes. He found that stocks’ residuals after dividend changes tend to be anomalous as if the Exchange was slow in digesting dividend information. Liu & Hu [13] summarize literatures in dividend payment policy in China. Wei Chen et al., [23] analyses the dividend policy of Shanghai stock market and study the existence and character of the signalling effect of dividend policy in this market. This study showed that the degree of Cumulative Abnormal Return (CAR) was very different from different dividend policy. Wang (2014)’s result of 4,586 stocks listed on the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchange for the period of 2006 to 2012 indicates that dividend announcement depicts positive impact on stock return at the time of announcement as well as immediately after such announcements. There was a positive reaction after the dividend announcement; however, there was a significant negative relation between dividend announcement and the stock return in cash dividend. Qiao & Yin Chen [26] found that there was significantly positive statistical relationship between the dividends and mix dividend policies of firms on the stock market. But their study showed that the market was not sensitive with cash dividends. Kumar et al., [11] found that not only do stock returns reflect the firm’s dividend data when published but they also anticipate future dividend growth to some extent, based calendar year from January 2009 to December 2009. Patel & Prajapati [18] find the empirical evidences of stock dividend announcement on selected 20 companies of the Bombay Stock Exchange in India, and try to investigate the existence of abnormal returns. Their sample data was drawn from companies listed on the Bombay Stock Exchange that have announced dividend over the period of January 2008 through December 2011. They found that Abnormal Returns on event day during any period of dividend announcement, whereas Cumulative Average Abnormal Returns has been found significant on event period 57 times positive move, 49 times negative move and 64 times constant or near to zero volatility. As for “kabunushi yutai” in Japan, Nose [16] hypothesizes that stock prices would increase toward the date of allotment for “Kabunushi Yutai” by using data samples of 624 companies. His empirical result shows that positive dairy abnormal returns (AR) are observed three months prior to the © 2015 | Published by The Standard International Journals (The SIJ) 124 The SIJ Transactions on Industrial, Financial & Business Management (IFBM), Vol. 3, No. 8, October 2015 event day, i.e., the allotment day for “kabunushi yutai.” AR and raw return (RR) at the right allotment day (the event day) are negative and statistically significant; however only marginal share drops are observed. Isagawa & Suzuki [9] test liquidities and prices of 187 companies which have introduced “kabunushi yutai” systems for the period of 1998 and 2005. Their empirical findings include the liquidity ratio of those companies increased after the introduction of the system, since they could attract more individual investors. As liquidity improves, their stock prices are increased as well. 2.2. Sales Promotion and An Event Study Blattberg & Neslin [3] define a sales promotion as “an actionfocused marketing event whose purpose is to have a direct impact on the behavior of the firm’s customer.” Sales promotions are temporary and a “call-to-action.” If customers do not take advantage of promotions within specified time frames, they will lose the benefit offered by the promotions. Sales promotions are almost always combined with some type of communication (e.g., TV commercials or a retailer advertisement) that the price is reduced and that the time period is limited (price is reduced only up to some point in time). Among different types of promotion defined by Blattberg & Briesch [4], the shop in this study has employed price reduction, free goods promotions, and constantly offering free trials. This ice cream shop offers over 1,000 flavors of ice cream including frozen yogurt, beverages, cakes and sundaes. According to Peopalove [19], the parent company of this ice cream shop has various brand promotions, among which is the Pink Day where customers have to show up in pink on a Wednesday to savor double scoop for a single scoop price. The 31% discount at every 31st of the month is well known. Their customers always come back for more. Eventually, the brand promotions created brand visibility and brand awareness for this ice cream shop and they have been able to engage more exciting ideas in future for their target audiences. As for brand promotion, not only discounts and free gifts, but the parent company of this ice cream shop has used celebrity endorsements all over the world. An idle group, SHINee, in Korea, Drew Barrymore and Sean "Diddy" Combs, in the U.S. were chosen as the advertisement models for this brand. In Japan, Tina Tamashiro, a fashion model who is popular among teenagers, has recently been chosen in their commercials. The parent company also partnered with a nonprofit group that donates books to low income families in the US to hold an annual ‘Free Scoop Night’ to thank their customers who help curb illiteracy. Other means of brand promotion that was carried out by this company includes road shows as well as seasonal brand promotions on Valentine’s Day, Mother’s Day and Father’s Day. There are several studies have examined consumers’ response to celebrity endorsement in advertising. Agrawal & Kamakura [1] assess the impact of celebrity endorsement contracts on the expected profitability of a firm by using event study methodology. They defined the event day as the date when the announcement of a contract or a forthcoming ISSN: 2321-242X contract between a firm and a celebrity first appeared in the print media. They included 110 cases for a period of January 1980 and December 1992. They found that the market reacted both positively and negatively to the announcement of different celebrity endorsement contracts, which was reflected in both positive and negative abnormal returns on the event day. However, investors seem to value positively the use of celebrities in advertisements on average. Recently, social networking services have been used as promotional platforms. Todri & Adamopoulos [22] studied the long-term effectiveness of promotional events in social media platforms, such as Twitter, by employing an event study methodology. They found that the cumulative abnormal returns are positive and statistically significant for brands which participate in promotional events with explicit and/or implicit advocacy are more likely to attract more followers and expand their fan base. The author has formed two hypotheses based on the previous researches as follows; Hypothesis 1: Kabunushi Yutai allotments are expected to generate a significant positive market reaction. Hypothesis 2: Sales campaigns are expected to be associated with a significantly positive share market reaction. III. DATA The actual sales data used in this study were obtained from an ice cream shop in a large shopping mall located in Akita, a northern part of Japan, by the courtesy of a shop owner. This shop mainly sells ice cream as well as crepes and ice cakes. Based on the historical records from 1979 to 2012 reported by Japan Meteorological Agency, the weather condition in Akita throughout the year is reported as follows; the warm season lasts from June to September with an average daily high temperature above 23°C (73°F). The hottest day of the year is August, with an average high of 28°C (83°F) and low of 22°C (71°F). The cold season lasts from December to March with an average daily high temperature below 6°C (43°F). The coldest day of the year is the end of January, with an average low of -3°C (26°F) and high of 1°C (33°F). This shop is one of franchisees of the world’s largest chain of ice cream specialty shops. Ice cream and frozen desserts’ sales data available from this source included daily and hourly sales from January 2011 to December 2012. The sales data were primarily recorded at the checkout counter. Figure 2 shows sales by month. The shop offers seasonal events along with calendar events; January (New Year), February (St. St. Valentine’s Day), March (Easter), October (Halloween), and December (Christmas). It also announces the addition of a new flavour every month, e.g. Oreo Chocolate Mint in May. In April, the shop’s parent company has been hosting a charitable event, and any customer, who contributes, can receive a free scoop of ice cream. During the Golden Week, a collection of four national holidays within seven days in Japan, starts on April 27 and lasts until May 9, the shop’s official campaign offers © 2015 | Published by The Standard International Journals (The SIJ) 125 The SIJ Transactions on Industrial, Financial & Business Management (IFBM), Vol. 3, No. 8, October 2015 customers with a double scoop, can order at more than 30 percent off the regular price. Their parent company launches nationwide summer advertising campaign, using a popular young male idle group to attract teenagers in Japan. The shop continuously offers various campaigns to boost sales; these events certainly help boosting sales, not only for summer, but for cold winter season. Fig. 2 shows sales revenue by each month at the shop, and Fig.3 shows sales revenue by each campaign during 2012. Table 1 shows a list of major campaign periods for 2011 and 2012. As for the shareholders' special benefit plan, the parent company provides complimentary coupons that could be exchanged to their ice cream products twice a year to their stockholders whose names are listed on the registered and/or beneficial stockholders' lists as of June 30 and December 31, in proportion to the number of stocks held. 1,00,00,000 30 25 80,00,000 20 60,00,000 15 10 40,00,000 5 20,00,000 0 Ave. Sales (yen) DEC NOV SEP OCT JUL AUG JUN MAY APR MAR JAN -5 FEB 0 Ave. temperature (°C) Figure 2: Average Ice Cream Sales and Average Temperature by Month 6,00,000 4,00,000 3,00,000 Valentine's Day 1st week Easter 1st week Tripple 1st week Snowman 1st week Halloween 1st week Christmas 1st week Valentine's Day 1st week Valentine's Day Last Week Easter 1st week Easter last week Tripple 1st week Tripple last week Snowman 1st week Snowman last week Halloween 1st week Halloween last week Christmas 1st week Christmas last week 2,00,000 0 IV. EVENT STUDY METHODOLOGY AND TESTING FOR SIGNIFICANCE 4.1. Event Study The event study methodology is the appropriate tool to investigate the relation among a right allotment for “shareholders' special benefit”, sales campaigns, and a stock price reaction. Event studies yield as an outcome abnormal returns (ARs), which are cumulated over time to cumulative abnormal returns (CARs) and then averaged over several observations of identical events to averaged abnormal returns (AARs) and cumulative averaged abnormal returns CAARs. These event study results are then oftentimes used as dependent variables in regression analyses. Returns of day t20 to day t-20 were used to estimate the parameters of the market model, where the Tokyo Stock Price Index (TOPIX) is a proxy of market index. Then a market model is estimated for each firm during this period by regression firm-specific returns on TOPIX returns. The abnormal return of the i th stock, is obtained by subtracting the normal or expected return in the absence of the event, from the actual return in the event period. For any security i the market model equation is expressed as follows: Rit i i Rmt it (1) Determine Abnormal Return (AR) in event windows and post-event windows using the estimated result of estimated market model as follows: ARit Rit (i i Rmt ) (2) 5,00,000 1,00,000 Table 1: A List of Major Campaign Periods 2011 2012 Jan. 23-Feb.14 Jan. 24-Feb.14 Valentine’s Day Campaign Mar. 24-Apr.22 Mar. 26-Apr.24 Easter Campaign Jun.1-Jul.16 Jun.1-Jul.18 Triple Campaign Jul.21-Sep.9 Jul.23-Sep.4 Snowman Campaign Sep.29-Oct.31 Oct.1-Oct.31 Halloween Campaign Nov.16-Dec.25 Nov.16-Dec.25 Christmas Campaign Valentine's Day Last Week Easter last week Tripple last week Snowman last week Halloween last week Christmas last week where t=-t1,...,+tn, CAR for the event period from is obtained as follows: t2 CARi ARik (3) k t1 4.2. Testing for Significance A test statistic is computed to check whether the average abnormal return for each stock is statistically different from zero as follows. t AR SD AR where return, and N (4) is standard deviation, is average abnormal is the number of companies. Figure 3: Sales Revenue by Different Campaign Events during 2012 ISSN: 2321-242X © 2015 | Published by The Standard International Journals (The SIJ) 126 The SIJ Transactions on Industrial, Financial & Business Management (IFBM), Vol. 3, No. 8, October 2015 RESULTS 20 5.1. The Shareholders’ Special Benefit 15 First, average abnormal returns (AAR), cumulative average abnormal returns (CAAR) for the period from 17 days before to 19 days after the event days (a right allotment day for the shareholders' special benefit) of the end of June and the end of December, 2011 and 2012 are calculated (see fig. 6 ~fig. 9). Just like the previous study [Nose, 16], the stock price increased toward the date of allotment for “the shareholders' special benefit” in order to capture it. Especially, in June, 2011, the stock price was almost unchanged for an entire month except just before the last day when the investor can obtain the right of allotment for the shareholders' special benefit (see fig. 8). AAR and CAAR are popped up, which imply that investor bought shares in order to obtain the right. 10 5.2. The Effects of Campaigns Events -0.2 Next, average abnormal returns (AAR), cumulative average abnormal returns (CAAR) during beginning and ending days of sales campaigns for 2011 and 2012 are calculated (see fig. 10~fig.15). The event days are set for the actual event days, for example, if it is Valentine’s Day, the event day would be February 14. AAR and CAAR are calculated in order to observe the stock movement for particular sales promotional campaigns. As for the various sales campaigns, the stock price tends to increase during the campaigns periods. However, AAR and CAAR are almost unchanged in February, even before the St. Valentine’s Day (see fig.10). It is common for Japanese women to give chocolates to men, not ice creams on Valentine's Day. The benign ice cream sales may affect the stock price during the Valentine's Day campaigns. As far as other campaigns concerned, after the triple campaign, AAR and CAAR drop and then become benign. After the Christmas day, AAR and CAAR drop sharply and bounce back (see fig.15). -0.4 5 -19 -17 -15 -13 -11 -9 -7 -5 -3 -1 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 0 -5 AAR CAAR Figure 6: The End of June, 2012 Kabunushi Yutai Day 0.4 0.2 0 -17 -15 -13 -11 -9 -7 -5 -3 -1 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 AAR CAAR Figure 7: The End of December, 2012 Kabunushi Yutai Day 0.2 -28 -25 -22 -19 -16 -13 -10 -7 -4 -1 2 5 8 0 -12 -9 -6 V. -0.2 -0.4 -0.6 AR-2011 CAR-2011 AR-2012 CAR-2012 Figure 8: Valentine’s Day Campaign 3 2 1 0.1 0 0 -20 -17 -14 -11 -8 -5 -2 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 -0.1 -1 -14 -11 -8 -5 -2 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 -2 -0.2 AAR AR-2011 AR-2012 CAAR CAR-2011 CAR-2012 Figure 9: Easter Campaign Figure 4: The End of June, 2011 Kabunushi Yutai Day 1 0.1 0.5 0 -19 -16 -13 -10 -7 -4 -1 2 5 8 11 14 17 -0.1 0 -14 -11 -8 -5 -2 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 -8 -5 -0.5 -0.2 AAR CAAR Figure 5: The End of December, 2011 Kabunushi Yutai Day ISSN: 2321-242X AR-2011 AR-2012 CAR-2011 CAR-2012 Figure 10: Triple Campaign © 2015 | Published by The Standard International Journals (The SIJ) 127 The SIJ Transactions on Industrial, Financial & Business Management (IFBM), Vol. 3, No. 8, October 2015 promotion, coordinating all media used in the most effective manner as a means of support for the campaign. 4 2 REFERENCES 0 -10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 -2 AR-2011 AR-2012 CAR-2011 CAR-2012 Figure 11: Snowman Campaign [1] [2] [3] 0.6 0.4 [4] 0.2 -0.2 -21 -19 -17 -15 -13 -11 -9 -7 -5 -3 -1 1 3 5 7 9 0 AR-2011 AR-2012 CAR-2011 CAR-2012 [5] [6] Figure 12: Halloween Campaign [7] 0.5 [8] 0 -15 -13 -11 -9 -7 -5 -3 -1 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 [9] -0.5 AR-2011 AR-2012 CAR-2011 CAR-2012 [10] Figure 13: Christmas Campaign [11] VI. CONCLUSION The purpose of this study is to compare the impact of shareholders’ special benefit plan and the impact of sales promotion of the worldwide recognized ice cream scoop shop have on the its daily stock returns. The empirical results suggest that the AAR and CAAR are increased toward the date of allotment for “kabunushi yutai” in order to capture shareholders’ special benefit, which supports the hypothesis 1. It implies that the shareholders’ special benefit successfully attract investors, particularly individual ones. The mixed results are obtained for the hypothesis 2. Each sales campaign affects the stock price in some extent. However, there are some campaigns do not have impact on the stock price. The ice cream has a high seasonality, but that sales themselves are becoming more prevalent as a means of promotion at the shop like this company tries to achieve. 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[26] Yu Qiao & Yin Chen (2001), “Dividend Policy and Fluctuation of Stock Market in Chinese Companies”, Economic Research, 4 (in Chinese). Michiko Miyamoto studied at the State University of New York College at Buffalo, where she received her Bachelor of Science degree (magna cum laude). She received her MBA from the University of California at Los Angeles. After a 7-year career with Goldman Sachs and Company, obtained her PhD further to a thesis about Econometrical Approaches to Economic and Strategic Management Studies at the University of Tsukuba, Graduate School of Systems Management. In 2008, she joined the Department of Management Science and Engineering at the Akita Prefectural University. [24] © 2015 | Published by The Standard International Journals (The SIJ) 129