Unit 1: Introduction – Meaning and Scope The Word statistics have been derived from Latin word “Status” or the Italian word “Statista”, meaning of these words is “Political State” or a Government. Shakespeare used a word Statist is his drama Hamlet By the 18th century, the term "statistics" designated the systematic collection of demographic and economic data by states. For at least two millennia, these data were mainly tabulations of human and material resources that might be taxed or put to military use. In the early 19th century, collectio n intensified, and the meaning of "statistics" broadened to include the discipline concerned with the collection, summary, and analysis of data. Statistics stands for numeric information from which conclusions can be drawn. Statistical methods on the other hand refers to methods used to collect, present, analyze and interpret numerical information. According to Horace Secrist, “Statistics may be defined as the aggregate of facts affected to a marked extent by multiplicity of causes, numerically expressed, enumerated or estimated according to a reasonable standard of accuracy, collected in a systematic manner, for a predetermined purpose and placed in relation to each other”2. This definition is both comprehensive and exhaustive. Characteristics of Statistics 1. Statistics are aggregate of facts: Statistics are aggregate of facts. A single figure cannot called statistics. Because can be drawn about such figures e.g. if we say that income of a person is RS 500, this figure is meaningless, because we cannot draw any conclusion about this figure i.e. whether the income of a person has increased or decrease. Thus the science of statistics is the science of aggregate and not of individuals. 2. Statistics are affected by multiplicity of causes: Statistics (i.e. figure) obtained about a particular phenomena are due to a number of causes e.g. production of wheat depends on seeds, fertilizer, irrigation, rainfall etc. it is not possible to study the influence of these factors separately, because these factors jointly determine the yield. 3. Statistics are numerically expressed: Statistics are numerical statement of facts. Qualitative expression such as honestly, good, bad etc. do not form statistics e.g. consider the following statement “QUAID AZAM was a great leader”. This is not a statistics statement. If on the other hand, we say that per capita income in Pakistan in 1960 was RS 840 and RS 1400 in 1990. This is of course a statistics statement as per capita incomes is expressed numerically and is comparable. 4. Statistics are collected in a systematic manner: When statistics are collected in a systematic manner, then they may give accurate result. If they are collected in a haphazard manner, then the very purpose of collecting statistics will be damaged such statistics always leads to misleading conclusions. Thus there must be trained investigators and proper organizations for the collection of statistics. 5. Statistics are placed in relation to each other: Statistics are collected mainly for the purpose of comparison. Data collected must be comparable and homogenous e.g. if we compare the heights of persons with their income, it is not statistics, on the other hand if we compare the ages of husbands with the ages of their wives. Then it is called statistics. 6. Statistics are collected for a per-determined purpose: The purpose for which statistics are to be collected is always determined in advance. It enables the investigator to distinguish between wanted and unwanted data. If the purpose is not determined in advance , then investigator may collect the irrelevant data. Croxton and Cowden Definition of Statistics According to Croxton and Cowden, „Statistics is the science of collection, presentation, analysis and interpretation of numerical data from logical analysis‟ The four different components of Statistics as per Croxton and Cowden are shown in figure Divisions of Statistics / Applied Statistics The two main divisions of statistics are descriptive statistics and inferential statistics. Although they are both unique in their own right, they are normally used in connection with one another as part of a wider statistical analysis of a given set of data Descriptive statistics simply describe data - hence the rather self-explanatory title they are given. They include modes, means, ranges and frequencies which help demonstrate striking trends, similarities and differences within a set of data or between multiple sets of data. Inferential statistics require human inference - again, as the name would suggest. We can look at pieces of descriptive data which show certain trends to draw conclusions based on the patterns displayed. This can lead to further sampling, matching and experimentation to see if a set of data links in with another prediction based on original descriptive data. Biometry Biostatistics (or biometry) is the application of statistics to a wide range of topics in biology. The science of biostatistics encompasses the design of biological experiments, especially in medicine, pharmacy, agriculture and fishery; the collection, summarization, and analysis of data from those experiments; and the interpretation of, and inference from, the results. A major branch of this is medical biostatistics, which is exclusively concerned with medicine and health. Functions of Statistics 1. Statistics simplifies mass data: The use of statistical concepts helps in simplification of complex data. Using statistical concepts, the managers can make decisions more easily. The statistical methods help in reducing the complexity of the data and consequently in the understanding of any huge mass of data. 1. Statistics makes comparison easier: Without using statistical methods and concepts, collection of data and comparison cannot be done easily. Statistics helps us to compare data collected from different sources. Grand totals, measures of central tendency, measures of dispersion, graphs and diagrams, coefficient of correlation all provide ample scopes for comparison. 2. Statistics brings out trends and tendencies in the data: After data is collected, it is easy to analyse the trend and tendencies in the data by using the various concepts of Statistics. 3. Statistics brings out the hidden relations between variables: Statistical analysis helps in drawing inferences on data. Statistical analysis brings out the hidden rel ations between variables. 4. Decision making power becomes easier: With the proper application of Statistics and statistical software packages on the collected data, managers can take effective decisions, which can increase the profits in a business. Limitations of Statistics 1. Statistics does not deal with qualitative data: Qualitative data deals with meanings while quantitative data deals with numbers. Qualitative data describes properties or characteristics that are used to identify things. Quantitative data describes data in te rms of quantity using the numerical figure accompanied by measurement unit. Statistics deals only with quantitative data. 2. Statistics does not deal with individual fact: Statistical methods can be applied only to aggregates of facts, because analysis and interpretation of data is highly difficult in case of individual facts. 3. Statistical inferences (conclusions) are not exact: Statistical inferences are true only on an average. They are probabilistic statements. For example, in case of data, which consists of height of 200 male persons taken from a graduate school, the inferences so obtained may not hold true for an individual male person in particular. 4. Statistics can be misused and misinterpreted: Lack of sufficient knowledge of statistical science often leads to incorrect conclusions. Therefore, proper care must be taken while selecting collection method and also in choosing appropriate statistical models. Increasing misuse of Statistics has led to increasing distrust in Statistics. 5. Common men cannot handle Statistics properly: The field of Statistics is so vast that it needs experience as well as skill to effectively understand and apply the statistical concepts and models. Hence, only statisticians can handle statistics properly. Role of Statistics in Business, Commerce and Economics Statistical methods are used by businessmen in making decision, estimation and comparison. Also in the business activities such as production, finance, sales, accounting, purchase, quality control, marketing etc, statistical methods are extensively used. Statistical methods are used to forecast the future trends. Statistical methods are useful in understanding economic problems and formulating economic policies. Five year plans, savings, taxation, exports and imports are evaluated through statistical methods. Econometrics is a branch of statistics which deals with application of statistical methods in the field of economics. The physical and natural sciences like astronomy, engineering, biometry and pharmaceuticals. Also in agricultural science, statisticaas is widely used. Thus the famous saying is that ‘sciences without statistics bear no fruit; statsitcs without sciences has no root’ Causes of Distrust Distrust of statistics arises due to the direct or indirect influence of certain causes. These causes can be: a) b) c) d) e) Figures can be easily believed. Ignoring the limitations of statstics Misues of the figures Inadequate samples Lack of subject knowledge. Remedies to Remove Distrust 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. Need of caution Statistical limitations should be taken into consideration. Self restraint, that is self control in statsitcal fallacies. Statistics must be used by experts Analytical study of data before it is used. Some Statistical Concepts Population or Universe The totality of all units or individuals in a survey is called population or universe. If the number of objects in a population is finite then it is called finite population otherwise it is known as infinite population. Example: Number of people in an apartment is a finite population while number of people in an entire continent is an infinite population. Sample A sample is a part or subset of the population. By studying the sample, you can predict the characteristics of the entire population from where the sample is taken. The data that describes the characteristics of a sample is known as statistic. A characteristic which is numerically measurable is called a quantitative. Quantitative data is data expressing a certain quantity, amount or range. Usually, there are measurement units associated with the data, for example, the height of a person in meters. A characteristic which is not numerically measurable is called a qualitative characteristic. Qualitative data is data describing the attributes or properties that an object possesses. Variable In a population, some characteristics remain the same for all units and some others vary from unit to unit. The quantitative characteristic that varies from unit to unit is called a variable. The qualitative characteristic that varies from unit to unit is called an attribute. A variable that assumes only some specified values in a given range is known as discrete variable. A variable that assumes all the values in the range is known as continuous variable. For example, the number of children per family and number of petals in a flower are examples of discrete variables. The height and weight of persons are examples of continuous variables.