Launch of NUI Galway
Energy Research Centre
15th December 2008
Climate Resources and Energy Change
Dr. Kieran Hickey
Department of Geography
Contact details
Phone: (00353) 91 492128
E-Mail: kieran.hickey@nuigalway.ie
Content
1) Preamble
2) The challenge of climate change Temperature
Wind
3) Seeing climate change as a resource
4) The Low Carbon Economy
5) Final Comments
Preamble
The title of this talk was deliberately juxtaposed to the normal
way we would use the terms – climate change and energy
resources.
This was done in order to highlight the need for original thinking
on energy and future energy resources that will be needed to
fill the requirements if we are to significantly reduce fossil fuel
usage and avoid the nuclear option.
Along with this switch in sources of energy there is the need to
improve energy efficiency in all our activities. Sustainable
2,000 watts per person per day – USA 11,400, Europe 5,400
and Bangladesh 300.
In addition the climate change that is driving the search for
renewable energy resources and more efficiency should also be
seen not just in the negative but also as a huge renewable
resource in terms of energy generation now and increasingly in
the future.
The Challenge of Climate Change 1
Clearly the major drive behind the search for new, renewable,
sustainable and efficient sources of energy is climate change.
The IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) 4th
Assessment in 2007 is pretty categorical about the scale of
climate change that is facing us if we don not change the way we
operate significantly.
In summary the IPCC is saying that:
Temperature has risen globally by 0.2oC per decade since 1980, in
Ireland this figure is 0.42oC and these figures seem to be
accelerating.
Temperature is predicted to rise between 1.8oC and 4.0oC by 2100
with a best guess estimate of around 3.0oC. This is a huge change
and worryingly our best guess is above the 2.0oC threshold. This
threshold is where trying to manage the impact climate change
would become incredibly difficult and will cause catastrophe in
many countries.
Figure 3.9. Linear trend of annual temperatures for 1901 to 2005 (left; °C
per century) and 1979 to 2005 (right; °C per decade). Areas in grey have
insufficient data to produce reliable trends. The minimum number of years
needed to calculate a trend value is 66 years for 1901 to 2005 and 18 years
for 1979 to 2005. An annual value is available if there are 10 valid monthly
temperature anomaly values. The data set used was produced by NCDC from
Smith and Reynolds (2005). Trends significant at the 5% level are indicated
by white + marks.
The Challenge of Climate Change 2
In summary the IPCC is saying that:
In the Northern Hemisphere there has been a significant decrease
in mid-latitude cyclone activity and an increase in high-latitude
cyclone frequency, suggesting a poleward shift of the storm
track, with storm intensity increasing over the North Pacific and
North Atlantic. The Valentia Observatory data shows an overall
sustained decline in hours of gales but with peaks in the 1920’s,
1940’s, 1960’s and 1980’s and with a dramatic decline in hours of
gales since the mid 1980’s.
A number of modelling studies have projected a general tendency
for more intense but fewer storms outside the tropics, with a
tendency towards more extreme wind events and higher ocean
waves in several regions in association with those deepened
cyclones. This will also be the case for Ireland.
Figure 2 Annual Variations in Sustained Hours of Gale at Valentia Observatory 1900-2006.
60
Hours of Gale
50
10 year Running Mean
40
30
20
10
2005
2000
1995
1990
1985
1980
1975
1970
1965
1960
1955
1950
1945
1940
1935
1930
1925
1920
1915
1910
1905
1900
0
Simulated changes in annual mean 10-m level wind speed (∆Wind) from the
years 1961 to 1990 to the years 2071 to 2100. The results are based on the
SRES A2 scenario and were produced by the same RCM (Rossby Centre
regional Atmosphere-Ocean model; RCAO) using boundary data from two
global models: ECHAM4/OPYC3 (top) and HadAM3H (bottom).
Seeing Climate Change as a Resource
Based on the IPCC (2007) predictions there is going to be a
huge amount of additional energy trapped within the Earth’s
atmosphere up to the end of this century.
It is impossible to estimate how much extra energy we are
talking about but as I see it the challenge to meet our energy
requirements in a sustainable way is to tap into as much of this
energy as possible however it manifests itself.
We already have hydro, wind both onshore and offshore, solar
and geothermal and wave and bioenergy. The first two are well
established, the second two are recent but operational and well
tested, the latter two are new areas of innovation but there are
surely much more out there that we can use to generate
additional energy sources.
Ireland is uniquely positioned to take advantage of these
climate resources as we are in a high energy environment
The Low Carbon Economy
This can be simply defined as any commercial or production
activity that relies on low carbon technologies and produces
products and services that meet the low carbon usage criteria.
This could be anything from making solar panels to carbon
neutral production of any product using either green energy
sources and sustainable materials.
Given the current economic downturn this sector of the global
economy should be viewed as a major opportunity for companies
and individuals and should be supported by government subsidies
atleast in the initial stages.
Currently the global carbon economy is worth around $1.5billion
but is predicted by the UK Carbon Trust to reach $500 billion by
2050 and employ 25 million workers. I think these are
conservative figures and shows the possibilities for Ireland in
playing a leading role in this new, generally high tech, innovative
sector with significant new employment opportunities.
Final Comments
Ireland has a unique environment in terms of testing of new
technologies for both renewable and new energy resources and
energy efficiency and face up to the challenges of climate change.
The climate change that will occur should not be seen as just a
negative but also a new resource in terms of energy.
Ireland has the high level scientific, technical, engineering
and IT skills to be a world leader in these fields.
One of the big challenges in the installation and operation of new
energy facilities is the planning system and the need for strategic
planning in this area.
The predictions about the Low Carbon Economy show that
Ireland can ill afford not to be a leader in this area in terms of
economic development and job generation.
The launch of the NUI Galway Energy Research Centre is a huge
and innovative step in this direction.