CHARTERED INSTITUTE OF STOCKBROKERS ANSWERS Examination Paper 2.1 Financial Accounting and Financial Statement Analysis Economics and Financial Markets Quantitative Analysis and Statistics Professional Examination March 2014 Level 2 SECTION A: SOLUTION MULTI CHOICE QUESTIONS 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 A C A A A D D B C B D C B D C C C D B C 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 A D D D C B B A A C D B D B D A A D A C (40 marks) SECTION B: SOLUTION TO SHORT ANSWER QUESTIONS Solution to Question 2 - Financial Accounting and Financial Statement Analysis I. Increased debt increases the leverage factor in a company. II. During normal or boom times, leverage results in exponential profit returns. III. During recessions, leverage can result in exponential losses. IV. A large debt burden carries risk because of the reaction of leverage to the prevailing economic conditions. V. Increased debt favours ROE during boom times but hurts ROE during recessions. (3 marks) Solution to Question 3 - Economics and Financial Markets Inflation illusion occurs when people confuse nominal changes in inflation with real changes. People’s welfare depends on real variables, not nominal variables. (3 marks) Solution to Question 4 - Quantitative Analysis and Statistics Present Value, PV = Future Value (FV) (1 + r)n where, FV = the future value being expected r = interest rate per annum PV = amount to be paid now to yield the future value. Perpetual Annuity, PV = A/r PV = N500,000/0.1 PV = N5,000,000 (1 mark) (2 marks) It does not make sense to pay more than the present value of all future cash flows from any investment. Since the PV is N500,000, I should not pay a kobo more than that. (1 mark) (4 marks) SECTION C: SOLUTION TO ESSAY TYPE, CALCULATION AND/OR CASE STUDY QUESTIONS Solution to Question 5 - Financial Accounting and Financial Statement Analysis 5 (ai) N’000 N’000 5,000 Sale Less Cost of Sales: Opening Inventory Purchases 400 2,800 3,200 Less Closing Inventory (350) (2,850) Gross Profit 2,150 Less Operating Expenses: Depreciation 200 Other expenses 600 (800) Net Operating Profit 1,350 Income Tax (0.3 * 1,350) (405) Profit After Tax (PAT) 945 Solution 5 (aii) Cash flow from operating activities N’000 Net Operating Profit Add: Depreciation N’000 1,350 200 1,550 Changes in working capital: Reduction in Inventory (400 -350) 50 1,600 Taxation Cash flow from operating activities (405) 1,195 (5 marks) Solution 5(b) PAT (N) CASH FLOW FROM OPERATING ACTIVITIES ORIGINAL FIGURE (N) 945,000 1,195,000 (200,000) 0 350,000 (350,000) From 5(a) above) TRANSACTION I II 0 0 III ______________ 500,000 500,000 0 1,000,000 1,595,000 2,345,000 IV V REVISED FIGURE ½ mark each for solutions I – V (5 marks) Solution 5(c1) i. The price earnings ratio, computed as: Share price Earnings per share It expresses the relationship between the stock market price of a share and the earnings after tax and before extraordinary items attributable to that share. Thus, the analyst can see what multiple of earnings the share price represents. ii. The dividend yield, computed as: Dividend per share Share price It expresses the percentage return that an investor in ordinary shares would currently earn on that investment in the form of dividend. iii. The stock turnover ratio can be computed as: Cost of Sales Stock In this case, it represents the number of items stock turns over during the year, assuming that stock levels do not fluctuate. The ratio may also be computed as: Turnover Stock Since stock is measured at cost, while turnover is measure at selling price, this ratio is not as useful as one based on cost of sales. Whichever way the ratio is computed, it expresses the relationship between the quantity of stock held and the level of activity. iv. Pre-tax return on capital employed, computed as: Pre-tax return Capital It expresses the relationship between the profit earned by a business and the resources it employs. (4 marks) Solution 5(c2) i. The price earnings (P/E) ratio indicates that investors in the Foods & Beverages industry value the ‘earnings’ of those companies more highly than investors in the building-materials industry; this in turn suggests that the stock market has more confidence in the future prospects of Foods & Beverages. ii. The lower dividend yield in Foods & Beverages appears to be attributable to two factors: (a) Share price in the industry are higher relative to earnings. (b) The industry is distributing a lower proportion of earnings as dividends. This may well be because there are better prospects in that industry, and therefore better opportunities to employ retained profit. This view is supported both by the P/E ratio and the return on capital employed. iii. Stock turnover in Foods & Beverages is very much faster than in the buildingmaterials industry. We would expect this because: (a) Foods & Beverages involves many perishable products, which cannot be held for long periods of time. (b) Foods & Beverages sales are likely to occur at an even and reasonably predictable rate. By contrast, building materials cover a wide range of product lines with a less even and predictable pattern of demand. Differing rates of stock turnover are, therefore, to be expected and tell us nothing about the current state of the industry. iv. The pre-tax return on capital employed is comparable between industries, and in this case indicates that currently the Foods & Beverages industry is operating more profitably than the building materials industry. The building-materials industry is subject to greater fluctuations in demand over the years, and it would seem likely that at the time when these industrial averages were computed the industry was in a relatively depressed state. (6 marks) Solution to Question 6 - Economics and Financial Markets Solution to 6(a) Economic Recession and Economic Depression Economic recession is a period of decline in total output, income, employment, and trade, lasting six (6) months or longer. It is a period of downturn marked by widespread contraction of business in many sectors of the economy. However, because many prices are downwardly inflexible, the price level is likely to fall only if the recession is severe and prolonged – i.e., if a depression occurs. Hence, economic depression could be described as the trough of recession. R D D = Depression and R = Recession It is the phase in which output and employment ’’ bottom out ’’ at their lowest levels. (5 marks) Solution 6(b) Inflation and Economic Recession Inflation is a period of rising general prices on a sustained basis. Ordinarily inflation and recession could be considered to be mutually exclusive meaning you could not have one when the other was occurring. This was the popular notion in the decades following World War II – having support in the Keynesian macroeconomic theory. However, history has proven this to be incorrect. This has led to the introduction of the term ’’ stagflation ’’. Stagflation is said to be occurring when the inflation rate is high with a slowing economy and high unemployment. Thus, inflation with a stagnant economy or deep recession/depression could be a reality, arising for instance from a disruption in the supply chain resulting in higher prices and lower production. (2 marks each for any 3 points = 6 marks) Solution 6(c) IS-LM Model L LM L2 L1 IS2 IS1 y1 y2 Y i. An increase in public expenditure shifts the IS curve rightward from IS1 to IS2 as in the above diagram. ii. This results in increase in National Income (Y), that is, expansion in the real economy from y1 to y2 and increase in interest rate from L1 to L2 . iii. The resulting increase in interest rate can lead to "crowding out", in which case there is a subsequent reduction in private spending (investment). Thus, the effect of the stimulus could be offset by the effect of crowding out. (7 marks) Solution to Question 7 - Quantitative Analysis and Statistics Solution 7(a) Using Venn Diagram, A S a b c d = 0.3 Given, probability of an Accountant, a + b = 0.4 ----------------- (i) probability of a Stockbroker, b + c = 0.5 ----------------- (ii) Universal probability, a + b + c + 0.3 = 1 ------- (iii) Substitute equation (i) in equation (iii), 0.4 + c + 0.3 = 1 c = 1 - 0.3 - 0.4 c = 0.3 From equation (ii), b + c = 0.5 b = 0.5 - c b = 0.5 - 0.3 b = 0.2 Therefore, the probability that the man is both an accountant and stockbroker is the intersection, 'b', which is 0.2. (4 marks) Solution 7(b1) Profit is maximized where marginal revenue (MR) equals marginal cost (Mt) Revenue, R = 920q – 8q2 Marginal Revenue, MR = δR/δq = 920 – 16q (1 mark) Cost, C Marginal Cost, MC = δc/δq = q2 + 20q + 60 = 2q + 20 For maximum profit, Marginal Revenue, MR = Marginal Cost, MC That is, 920 – 16q = 2q + 20 (1 mark) (1 mark) -16q – 2q = 20 – 920 -18q = -900 Quantity to be sold, q = 900/18 = 50 units (1 mark) (4 marks) Solution 7(b2) = 920q – 8q2 = 920(50) – 8(50)2 = N26,000 If 50 units will be sold, Selling Price, SP = N26,000/50 = N530 Revenue, R (2 marks) Solution 7(b3) Profit = Revenue – Cost Cost, C = q2 + 20q + 60 = 502 + 20(50) + 60 = N3,560 Therefore, Maximum Profit = N26,000 – N3,560 = N22,440 (2 marks) (12 marks)