CHAPTER 32 Remote sensing of glaciers of the Subantarctic islands J. Graham Cogley, Etienne Berthier, and Shavawn Donoghue ABSTRACT Through case studies, we summarize progress for the Subantarctic in the drive to complete the World Glacier Inventory. Most of the 29 Heard Island glaciers have shrunk since the first observations in 1947, several having begun to retreat from former tidewater termini. Total glacier area decreased from 288 km 2 in 1947 to 257 km 2 in 1988 and 231 km 2 in 2008. On Kerguelen, shrinkage has been more dramatic. In 1963–1964, the date of the earliest complete coverage, glacier extent was 703 km 2 . In 2001, it was 552 km 2 . We have compiled the first objective topographic map of Montagu Island, the largest of the South Sandwich Islands (glacierized area 94 km 2 ), using the ASTER Global Digital Elevation Model (version 1). We assess the shortcomings of this new tool, and conclude that it may indeed prove valuable for first-time mapping. It will also be useful as an aid in selecting accurately dated scenes for estimation of multidecadal change. An inventory based on cartographic sources yields an estimate for total glacier area in the Subantarctic during the late 20th century of 7,863 km 2 . Limited measurements on other islands suggest that Heard Island and Kerguelen are typical of glacier shrinkage, thinning, and negative mass balance across the region. 32.1 INTRODUCTION In this chapter we summarize progress for the Subantarctic in the attempt to complete the World Glacier Inventory (WGI; http://nsidc.org/data/docs/ noaa/g01130_glacier_inventory/ ), and illustrate through case studies how progress in the systematic monitoring of glaciological change is now accelerating. Many Subantarctic islands are poorly surveyed even today, and until recently there was little information about glacier change. Documenting change is not a realistic ideal while information about the first of the two required epochs remains uncompiled. Thus the aim of much glaciological work in the Subantarctic is that originally articulated for the WGI; namely, to develop a snapshot, necessarily diachronous, of glacierization in the late 20th century. However, information about change is now accumulating more rapidly. Here we present case studies of glacier mapping and glacier change, relying on imagery from SPOT, ASTER, Landsat, and other sensors, from Heard Island, Kerguelen, and Montagu Island. We also summarize the results of an almost complete map-based inventory of the Subantarctic as a whole. 32.2 THE REGIONAL CONTEXT We define the Subantarctic as in Fig. 32.1. The northern boundary lies at 45 so as to include the summit ice on Marion Island, but excludes Patagonia and New Zealand. The boundary with Antarctica is drawn to the north of islands that are considered ‘‘close’’ to the mainland. Scott Island, Peter I Island, the South Shetlands, the South Orkneys, and the Balleny Islands are all regarded 760 Remote sensing of glaciers of the Subantarctic islands Figure 32.1. The Subantarctic (white background) as defined for the present purpose. Islands with no glaciers are in italics. Is ¼ Islands; Peter I ¼ Peter the First Island. as Subantarctic, partly because they are at risk of being neglected in studies focused on the much larger Antarctic Ice Sheet. The area of land in the Subantarctic is 30,160 km 2 , of which 26% is occupied by glacier ice (Section 32.4). Most of the islands lie on oceanic crust. Many are volcanic, and several are currently active or have been so recently (e.g., Bauer 1963, LachlanCope et al. 2001, López-Martı́nez et al. 2002, Patrick et al. 2005, Stephenson et al. 2005). The Subantarctic islands, scattered through 360 of longitude and 25 of latitude, have distinctly different climates. Weather stations are few and widely dispersed (Jacka et al. 2004). The main features of the evolution of temperatures in the Subantarctic during the 20th century can, however, be seen in Table 32.1 and Fig. 32.2. Mean annual temperature decreases polewards. However, the potential for ablation by melting, as measured by the positive degree-day sum at or close to sea level (Fig. 32.2), remains substantial as far south as the South Orkneys at latitude 61 . Subantarctic climate is strongly maritime. The mean annual range of temperature is small, but increases southwards from 4.6 C at Marion Island to 12.6 C in the South Orkney Islands. There is evidence from some islands of the expected contrast between windward and leeward coasts. On Heard Island, for example, föhn winds are documented on the eastward side, in the lee of the main peak, and on The regional context 761 Table 32.1. Temperature at subantarctic weather stations. Number of years of observation in parentheses; Heard Island (proxy): based on Atlas Cove measurements and linear regression against measurements at Port aux Français (Thost and Truffer 2008). Trends in bold type differ from zero by more than 2 standard errors. Mean Tann 1951–1980 ( C) Mean Tann 1981–2007 ( C) Trend, period (no. of years) Transvaal Cove, Marion Island 5.3 (30) 6.1 (26) þ0.027, 1949–2006 (56) Port aux Français, Kerguelen 4.5 (29) 4.9 (27) þ0.010, 1951–2006 (56) Atlas Cove, Heard Island 1.5 (7) 2.0 (12) þ0.017, 1948–2006 (19) Heard Island (proxy) 1.6 (30) 2.1 (22) þ0.014, 1951–2002 (52) Grytviken, South Georgia 2.0 (28) — þ0.014, 1951–1980 (28) 3.7 (30) 3.2 (26) þ0.033, 1981–2007 (26) — 7.1 (3) Station Orcadas, Laurie Island (South Orkney Islands) Young Island, Balleny Islands ( C yr1 ) Figure 32.2. Annual positive degree-day sums based on records of near-surface air temperature from stations near sea level: Transvaal Cove (Marion Island), Port aux Français (Kerguelen), Grytviken (South Georgia), Orcadas (South Orkney Islands) and Young I (Balleny Islands) (Young I record from the Antarctic Meteorological Research Center, University of Wisconsin-Madison, http://amrc.ssec.wisc.edu/stations.html ; other records from Turner et al. 2004; http://www.antarctica.ac.uk/met/READER/). Thick lines ¼ 5-year averages. Monthly mean temperatures were corrected for within-month variability following Braithwaite (1984), a standard deviation of 4 C being assumed. South Georgia the equilibrium line altitude (ELA) is higher in the lee (northeast) of the axial mountain ranges (Clapperton et al. 1989). Temperatures throughout the Subantarctic have increased in recent decades. All of the trends in Table 32.1 are statistically significant, some strongly so, but interdecadal variability is also notable. For example, much of the warming at Port aux Français, Kerguelen, happened between 1960 and the early 1980s; since then temperatures have 762 Remote sensing of glaciers of the Subantarctic islands Table 32.2. Precipitation at subantarctic weather stations. Data from the Global Historical Climate Network (http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/ghcn-monthly/index.php) except for Port aux Français (Berthier et al. 2009) and Arctowski (Marsz 2002). Station Mean annual precipitation (mm) Period (no. of years) Transvaal Cove, Marion Island 2294 1948–2009 (62) Port aux Français, Kerguelen 759 1951–2005 (55) Grytviken, South Georgia 1473 1906–1981 (65) Arctowski, King George Island (South Shetland Islands) 507 1978–1996 (16) Bellingshausen, King George Island (South Shetland Islands) 707 1968–2009 (40) Arturo Prat, Greenwich Island (South Shetland Islands) 616 1966–2003 (32) changed little (Berthier et al. 2009). The pattern of interdecadal temperature variability shown by Berthier et al. is comparable with that in the annual positive degree-day sum, as shown in Fig. 32.2, but this is not true everywhere. The strong warming at Orcadas (Table 32.1) is not mirrored in Fig. 32.2, suggesting, consistent with the findings of Zazulie et al. (2010), that much of the warming there is wintertime warming. Precipitation varies considerably from island to island (Table 32.2). However, weather station averages are not reliable as guides to accumulation on glaciers. All of the stations are close to sea level, and all are on the lee sides of islands. For example, for 1995–2001 mean annual precipitation was 692 mm at Port aux Français, while 70 km to the west it was 3,155 mm near to the eastern margin of Cook Ice Cap (Institut Paul Émile Victor, dataset 136; Berthier et al. 2009). On King George Island, for 1987–1991 mean annual precipitation was 472 mm at Arctowski (Marsz 2002), while some 10 km to the north, at 700 m asl, mean annual point mass balance was 2,480 mm water equivalent for the same period (Wen et al. 1998). The Antarctic Oscillation partly controls decadal climate variability and glacier dynamics in New Zealand (see Chapter 29 of this book on New Zealand’s glaciers by Chinn et al. and the summary, Chapter 33, by Kargel et al.). Global warming, the Antarctic Oscillation, and fluctuations in the Antarctic Circumpolar Current can all be reasonably suspected as causes of glacier fluctuations in the Subantarctic, but the geographic and temporal coverage of the observations is insufficient to identify the most important factors or to order their dynamical significance. Latitude alone is the obvious major variable affecting static measures of glacier characteristics, such as the ELA (Table 32.3). Moving polewards, the ELA drops towards sea level, and can be assumed to reach it somewhere between latitudes 65 and 70 (Table 32.3). Observations for South Georgia are partly cartographic; the substantial range reflects the contrast between leeward and windward sides of the island. Tidewater glaciers—those whose termini stand in the sea—are known as far north as Kerguelen, where, of two calving glaciers on the west coast in 1963, Pasteur Glacier was still at sea level as of April 2009. Calving termini become the norm south of 55 to 60 . 32.3 CASE STUDIES 32.3.1 Heard Island Heard Island is a volcanically active island located at 53.1 S, 73.5 E in the southern Indian Ocean (Fig. 32.3). Heard Island’s position south of the Polar Front is unique among the islands of the southern Indian Ocean (e.g., Kerguelen, Crozet, and Marion). This high-elevation roughly circular island (367 km 2 ), culminating in Mawson Peak at 2,745 m asl on the Big Ben Plateau, had an estimated glacier cover of 288 km 2 in 1947 (Ruddell 2006). The physiography and orographic effects of the island have resulted in glaciers on the leeward and windward sides reacting differently to climate Case studies 763 Table 32.3. Observations of the equilibrium line altitude on subantarctic islands. Island, glacier Latitude ELA (m asl) Source Marion 46.9 >1,150 Sumner et al. (2004) Kerguelen, Cook Ice Cap 49.4 700 Vallon (1977a) Heard 53.1 100–700 Ruddell (2006) Bouvet 54.4 200–350 Orheim (1981) South Georgia 54.6 370–860 Clapperton et al. (1989) Signy (South Orkney Islands) 60.7 200 King George, Little Dome 62.1 160 Wen et al. (1998) Nelson 62.3 110 Wen et al. (1998) Livingston, Rotch Ice Dome 62.6 140–170 Orheim and Govorukha (1982) Deception, Glacier G1 62.9 275–330 Orheim and Govorukha (1982) Cogley (unpublished) Figure 32.3. The glacier boundaries of Heard Island from 1947 to 2008/2009, based on SPOT satellite imagery acquired in 1988, aerial photos from 1987, QuickBird and Worldview satellite imagery from 2003, 2006, and 2008, and International Space Station images from 2009. The red outlines represent extents in 2006–2009 (adapted from Australian Antarctic Data Centre, Map Catalogue Number 13691, August 2009). Figure can also be viewed as Online Supplement 32.1. 764 Remote sensing of glaciers of the Subantarctic islands change. Understanding of change in the extent of Heard Island glaciers has been derived from comparison of brief journal accounts, photos, and drawings made during the early sealing period, and later—as scientists began to explore this remote island—from published reports, photos, satellite images, and eventually mass balance studies. The fluctuations of these glaciers have been discussed by Budd and Stephenson (1970), Allison and Keage (1986), Budd (2000), Ruddell (2006), and Donoghue (2009). Two SPOT images from January 1988 and March 1991 were the first clear high-resolution images of the majority of the island. Ruddell (2006) used the SPOT images and aerial photographic surveys to estimate glacier extent between 1947 and 1988 and to provide the first complete inventory of Heard Island’s glaciers. As of 1988, there were 29 glacierized basins (41 termini) and 3 glaciated basins (which may have hosted glaciers during the Last Glacial Maximum) on Heard Island with a total area of 256.9 km 2 and an estimated ice volume, by area–volume scaling, of 14.2 km 3 (Ruddell 2006). The Australian Antarctic Data Centre analyzed a Worldview-1 image from March 23, 2008 (Fig. 32.4). Glacier outlines were remapped, resulting in a total glacierized area of 231 km 2 (Harris 2009, Lucieer et al. 2009). A new DEM was created based on this image (Brolsma 2010). It updated the 1997 (Ryan 2004) and 2002 (Brolsma and Smith 2008) Radarsat DEMs. We have divided the glaciers on Heard Island into four regions, Laurens Peninsula, northern Big Ben, eastern Big Ben, and southwestern Big Ben. The temperate glaciers of Heard Island were first systematically observed in the early 1900s. The majority of these glaciers were stable or slightly thinning until a marked retreat began in the early 1960s (Ruddell 2006). Retreat since the 1960s has continued through the last recorded observation in 2009 (Donoghue 2009). Recent (1947–2009) changes in the eastern Big Ben glaciers are known in more detail than for the other regions of Heard Island due to relatively cloud-free satellite images and glacier-based field surveys in 2000/2001 and 2003/2004 (Donoghue 2009). These eastern Big Ben glaciers include larger glaciers that extend from the summit of Big Ben to the coast (Compton, Stephenson, and Winston) and smaller glaciers that extend from around 1,000 m asl to the coast (Brown, AU1121, and AU1141). The first flight over Heard Island in 1947 indicated that Winston Glacier had already retreated from the coastline. Between 1947 and 1963 Winston retreated 1.6 km (Budd and Stephenson 1970) and therefore appeared to have the most rapid retreat during that interval. However, this was followed by a period of advance in the 1970s, which was later lost again in the 1980s (Ruddell 2006). This oscillation suggests that Winston Glacier has a response time of the order of a decade and argues against former calving dynamics as a cause of the oscillation. However, it is not clear whether the advance was climatically driven or not. It is interesting that glaciers in New Zealand also advanced starting in the 1970s. By the 1960s several of the other glaciers along the east coast of Heard Island had begun to retreat (Budd and Stephenson 1970). For example, AU1121 had retreated to a stagnant ice field, and Brown and Stephenson had begun to retreat. By the 1980s Compton Glacier had experienced the most substantial retreat of any of the glaciers on Heard Island. It was then 1.6 km inland from its 1947 tidewater glacier front (Allison and Keage 1986) and was 2.5 km inland by 1987 (Ruddell 2006). The fact that former calving glaciers have continued to retreat for decades after losing connection to the sea shows that calving dynamics are not the root cause of the retreat. By the mid-1980s Brown and Stephenson were beginning to show signs of increased retreat. Both had developed proglacial lagoons. Brown Glacier’s terminus retreated a total of 1.7 km from the coast between 1947 and 2004 at an average rate of 30 m yr1 (Thost et al. 2004). GPS surveys from 2000 and 2003 indicate significant thinning of Brown Glacier, by up to 11.7 m on the lower glacier and 8.5 m on the upper glacier (Thost and Truffer 2008). Between 1947 and 1987 Stephenson Glacier decreased in area by 18% (Ruddell 2006) although this shrinkage was not steady; instead, there was a dramatic acceleration (of 100 m yr1 ) in retreat of the northern margin from 1987 to 2000 (Kiernan and McConnell 2002). This increased retreat continued with the opening of a waterway by 2006 between the two proglacial lagoons that had formed near the terminus of Stephenson Glacier. By 2010 the glacier had retreated even further from its 1987 terminus. QuickBird images were used to measure the changes in eastern glaciers between January 2004 and January 2006 (Donoghue 2009; Fig. 32.4). Case studies 765 Figure 32.4. QuickBird and Worldview images of Heard Island, all provided by the Australian Antarctic Data Centre. (A) January 17, 2003 Quickbird image; (b) January 23, 2006 Quickbird image with the area of retreat outlined (Donoghue 2009); (c) March 23, 2008 Worldview-1 panchromatic image; (d) February 4, 2009 Quickbird image. Figure can also be viewed as Online Supplement 32.2. Brown Glacier, and Compton Glacier along most of its lagoon-based terminus, each retreated by less than 0.1 km. The northern terminus of Stephenson Glacier, which has broken up into the lagoon, retreated by 0.25 km, and the southern terminus by more than 0.75 km. Winston Glacier retreated by 0.2 km. 32.3.2 Kerguelen The Kerguelen Islands (49 S, 69 E) are a group (7,215 km 2 ) of isolated islands in the southern Indian Ocean. They were discovered in 1772 by Yves de Kerguelen. Here, we summarize and update some recently published results of glacier 766 Remote sensing of glaciers of the Subantarctic islands Table 32.4. Changes in Kerguelen ice cover. Isolated glaciers (covering 18 km 2 in 1963–1964) are not tabulated. Region Year Area (km 2 Þ Ice loss (km 2 , %) Cook Ice Cap 1963 2001 500.9 410.0 90.9 (18.2) Rallier du Baty Peninsula 1964 2001 102.3 79.2 23.1 (22.5) Mont Ross 1964 2001 59.3 35.1 24.2 (40.8) Presqu’ı̂le de la Société de Géographie 1964 1994 14.7 4.7 10 (68) change on the Kerguelen Islands (Berthier et al. 2009). We measured the extent of glaciers and ice caps on these islands by digitizing and comparing successive glacier outlines on a map and satellite images. Our oldest dataset is a map published by the Institut Géographique National (IGN) at a scale of 1:200,000. It was produced using end-ofsummer aerial photos taken in 1963 of Cook Ice Cap and in 1964 of other glaciated areas, and appears to represent glacier outlines reliably. SPOT (1991, 1994, and 2003), Landsat (November 2001), and ASTER (2005, 2006, 2009) images were used to generate a time series of ice cap extent. Our glacier inventory has been incorporated into the Global Land Ice Measurements from Space (GLIMS) Glacier Database (http://nsidc.org/glims/ ). Area change for the four main glacierized regions on the Kerguelen Islands is summarized in Table 32.4. Between 1963–1964 and 2001, the total icecovered area on the Kerguelen Islands shrank from 703 51 to 552 11 km 2 . Between 1963 and 2001, Cook Ice Cap shrank by 18% (Fig. 32.5a) due to major retreat of all outlet glacier fronts and the growth and appearance of nunataks (isolated rock outcrops within the ice cap). We estimated the overall rate of contraction for two time periods (Figure 32.5b). Area loss was 1.9 1.3 km 2 yr1 between 1963 and 1991 and increased to 3.8 0.7 km 2 yr1 after 1991. Thus, in recent years, nearly 1% of the ice cap has disappeared annually. The temporal resolution of our data on glacier change is rather low and does not permit us to observe interannual or decadal variability of area loss. However, we detect a recent acceleration of area loss by comparing losses over these two periods. Ampère Glacier is the largest outlet glacier of Cook Ice Cap and, because of its relatively good accessibility, has received most attention in previous studies (Vallon et al. 1977a, b, Frenot et al. 1993). Between 1963 and 2006, the terminus retreated at a mean rate of 70 3.7 m yr1 , the glacier length decreased from 15.3 to 12.5 km, and the glacier contracted by 18.3 5.1 km 2 (Figure 32.6b). Area loss was mainly restricted to the glacier front, where a proglacial lake (Ampère Lake) appeared in the 1960s and covered 1.6 km 2 in 1991 and 3.5 km 2 in 2006. A longer time series of terminus change for Ampère Glacier was compiled by mapping seven frontal moraines (Frenot et al. 1993). These moraines were dated using the radial growth of Azorella selago Hooker, a cushion-forming plant of the Umbelliferae (Apiaceae) group. The moraines were deposited between 1799 and 1962 following a maximum Little Ice Age advance in 1799, and indicate a total (but irregular) retreat of about 1 km over 160 years, at a slow mean rate of 6 m yr1 . One can thus conclude that there has been an order-of-magnitude acceleration in the retreat of the Ampère Glacier front after 1963. More recent work to validate the use of A. selago as a phytochronometer confirmed linearity of growth rates with cushion size and validated the basic concept of this technique at a given site and environment; however, this newer work pointed up inconsistent growth rates for different environments (le Roux and McGeoch 2004), which, as we have noted, vary considerably on and across individual Case studies 767 Figure 32.5. Retreat of Cook Ice Cap between 1963 and 2001. (a) 2001 Landsat image with the 1963 (white) and 2001 (black) glacier outlines. (b) Temporal changes of the ice-covered area. The rates of glacier shrinkage (km 2 yr1 ) are indicated for 1963–1991 and 1991–2003 (from Berthier et al. 2009, & 2009 American Geophysical Union; reprinted with permission). Figure can also be viewed as Online Supplement 32.3. islands. To the extent that glacier retreat and fluctuations are a response to climatic variability, the detailed timeline developed by Frenot et al. (1993) can be considered a valuable extension of the length of the record. The rapid acceleration of retreat is so striking that it is difficult to explain in other than climatic terms. An April 2009 ASTER image was used to update the outlines of Ampère Glacier (Fig. 32.6a). The most striking feature is the disappearance of the part of the glacier tongue that previously existed in the lower reaches of the Nunatak de Lapparent. A lake is now found instead with a high density of icebergs, indicating that calving has become an important component of the mass balance. Intensification of calving and erosion of the glacier front by proglacial lake water are most likely responsible for the accelerating rate of area loss, which doubled Figure 32.6. Retreat of Ampère Glacier between 1963 and 2009. (a) Location of the glacier front in 1963 (yellow) and 2003 (blue). The background image is an ASTER image acquired in April 2009. (b) Temporal changes of the Ampère Glacier area. Average rates of area change are indicated during 1963–1991, 1991–2001, and 2001–2009. Figure can also be viewed as Online Supplement 32.4. 768 Remote sensing of glaciers of the Subantarctic islands from 0.35 km 2 yr1 during 1963–1991 to 0.69 km 2 yr1 during 2001–2009 (Fig. 32.6b). Our analysis of area change has been complemented by estimates of the volume balance of Cook Ice Cap since 1963 using (i) area–volume scaling relationships, (ii) sequential DEM analysis (Berthier et al. 2004), and (iii) the integration of sparse but reliable measurements of ice elevation changes over the ice cap (Berthier et al. 2009). Although they are all highly uncertain, we obtained three independent and consistent measurements between 1963 and 2000, in the range of 25–30 km 3 of ice loss. This is equivalent to an area average thinning rate of 1.4–1.7 m yr1 . The accelerated rates of ice loss observed since the 1990s suggest that ice masses in the Kerguelen Islands have not yet reached a steady state. New satellite acquisitions are needed to assess whether the apparent acceleration of ice loss is maintained. A better understanding of the dynamics of glaciers and ice caps on the Kerguelen Islands is also needed to predict how quickly they will react to the 1–2 C warming predicted in this region by the end of the 21st century. 32.3.3 Montagu Island The first ASTER global DEM, a product of METI (Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, Japan) and NASA that was released in June 2009 (Hayakawa et al. 2008, ASTER 2009), has attributes and shortcomings that will require considerable processing before it can be put to use in the estimation of glacier elevation change. It can, however, be expected to be valuable in the topographic mapping of certain remote glacierized areas for the first time. In this section we assess the ASTER GDEM1 of one such area, Montagu Island in the South Sandwich Islands. We have not reassessed Montagu Island with GDEM2 (a more recently released and updated global ASTER-derived DEM), but would expect that some incremental and perhaps important improvements have been made relative to GDEM1. Fig. 32.7a shows Montagu Island according to the best available pre-ASTER map (Holdgate and Baker 1979). The highest elevation, 1,370 m, is taken from Kemp and Nelson (1931), while that of Mt. Oceanite in the southeast was estimated from a helicopter altimeter. According to Holdgate and Baker, the general topography is ‘‘not accurately laid down’’. Fig. 32.7b shows the ASTER GDEM1 product for Montagu Island, without editing. Figs. 32.7a and 32.7b were georeferenced approximately to each other, relying on shaded relief images of GDEM1. The shoreline and ice margin from Fig. 32.7a are 4 km north-northeast of their apparent positions in GDEM1. The ASTER position, with accuracy better than 50 m (Fujisada et al. 2005), is clearly the more accurate. There are obvious artifacts in the ASTER topography. The irregular truncation of the southern limit of coverage is probably due to masking of the surrounding ocean based on the inaccurate Holdgate and Baker position. The numerous offshore ‘‘islets’’ must be ice floes, misinterpreted by the GDEM1 processing algorithms. On the ‘‘mainland’’, elevation errors are common. At the northeastern limit of coverage, spurious elongate ridges appear to rise to 2,000 m. In the southeast, Mt. Oceanite has been misinterpreted as sea. On the summit plateau, several pits and bumps can be seen. Close-ups with finer contour intervals (not shown), and comparison with Fig. 32.7c, suggest strongly that these irregular details are artifacts. Pits and bumps were found in ‘‘virtually every ASTER GDEM[1] tile’’ examined during validation (ASTER 2009). GDEM1 elevations are obtained by ‘‘stacking’’ stereo image pairs with dates between 1999 and 2008. Averaging the results reduces root-meansquare errors significantly (ASTER 2009). For Montagu Island the number of image pairs ranges from 1 to 10, and is typically 3 or 4. Evidently this amount of averaging has not sufficed to reduce pitand-bump noise below the threshold implied by the 100 m contour interval of Fig. 32.7b. Indeed, stacking may be partly responsible for the noise: no cloud-free image has been acquired since the launch of the satellite in 1999. However, a problem peculiar to Montagu Island is that Mt. Belinda has been erupting more or less continuously since 2001 (see Fig. 32.7c). The MODIS Thermal Alert System (MODVOLC; Wright et al. 2004) recorded a highly variable heat source at the location of Mt. Belinda between 2001 and 2004 (Patrick et al. 2005), and an intensification of activity in September 2005 is documented by NASA (2005) from ASTER imagery. Inspection of MODVOLC suggests that eruptive activity continued at least to 2007; ASTER TIR imagery impressively shows the high rate of eruptive activity from 2003 to late 2006, and possible hydrothermal activity within the caldera in late 2008 (see Online Supplement 32.5). Eruptive plumes are visible in all ASTER images examined for this study, and doubt- Case studies 769 Figure 32.7. Montagu Island, the largest (area 101 km 2 ) of the South Sandwich Islands, mapped in UTM projection (zone 26S). (a) A representation of the best map published (Holdgate and Baker 1979), based on shipboard observations and helicopter reconnaissance in 1964, with scale adjusted following Patrick et al. (2005); (upper left inset) position of Montagu I within the South Sandwich chain; (lower left inset) position of the South Sandwich Islands within the Subantarctic. ‘‘Contours’’ are actually crude formlines; summit of Mt. Belinda is assigned the elevation measured in 1930, but the position measured from panel (c). (b) ASTER Global GDEM1generated map, unedited except for projection into UTM zone 26S; contour interval is 100 m. Shoreline (black) and ice margin (red) from panel (a). Panels also available as Online Supplement 32.6a–d. 770 Remote sensing of glaciers of the Subantarctic islands Figure 32.7. (c) ASTER image of the continuing eruption of Mt. Belinda, September 23, 2005, georeferenced to the ASTER global DEM1 using shaded relief images of the latter (image courtesy of J.L. Smellie, color processing by M.R. Patrick). Shoreline (white) is traced from the ASTER image; ice margin (red) is adjusted from panel (a). (d) ASTER Global DEM1 map, clipped against shoreline (black) from panel (c); ice margin in red. Glacier ice covers 93% of the island. Panels also available as Online Supplement 32.6a–d. Cartographic Inventory of the Subantarctic less contaminated the topographic results. In fact, the plume of grayish steam off the north coast in Fig. 32.7c is recognizable in Fig. 32.7b, and the lava stream flowing northeastwards down the flank of Mt. Belinda appears as a number of spurious high spots in Fig. 32.7b. Fig. 32.7c (NASA 2005) shows the best single ASTER image of Montagu Island. Both the shoreline and the ice margin were transferred from Fig. 32.7a to this image, but the approximate nature of the georeferencing meant that no reliable conclusions could be drawn about changes in glacier terminus positions. Instead, we accept Fig. 32.7c as the most reliable source for the shoreline while Fig. 32.7a remains the best source for the ice margin because Fig. 32.7c is snow covered. Minor adjustments were made by eye to match the Holdgate and Baker ice margin to the ASTER shoreline. The result of this merger of information is shown in Fig. 32.7d, the first objective topographic map of Montagu Island. Truncation of the south coast could presumably be remedied rather easily, and flaws such as the misinterpretation of Mt. Oceanite could be corrected by detailed analysis of suitable image pairs, although this would tend to nullify the convenience of GDEM1. A broader conclusion is that a general solution of the pit-and-bump problem will be essential if GDEM1 is to fulfill its promise as an analytical tool. As mentioned, a more recent global DEM, GDEM2, has been released and in some parts of the world has reduced the problems associated with GDEM1, but many of the same problems identified here remain significant in the newer product. Certain features of the topography are now clearer. The formlines of Fig. 32.7a suggest a conical mountain, but in Fig. 32.7d the summit region is recognizable as the caldera that Fig. 32.7c shows it to be. Most notably, GDEM1 shows that the peak of Mt. Belinda is 2 km to the north of its formline position in Fig. 32.7a, and that its maximum elevation, 1,070 m, is 300 m less than previously estimated. 32.4 CARTOGRAPHIC INVENTORY OF THE SUBANTARCTIC Fig. 32.7a is taken from a study of Montagu Island (unpublished work), which aims to inventory Subantarctic glaciers from cartographic sources. The work, summarized in Table 32.5, is incomplete, but provides a regional perspective for Section 771 32.3, further insight into the potential of GDEM1, and an estimate of total glacierized area. This total, 7,863 km 2 , derives from maps published over several decades, mostly based on aerial photos but in some cases on little more than ground surveys or even explorers’ sketches. The inventory of the most extensively glacierized island, South Georgia, is incomplete, and the information presented here is from Smith (1960). For King George Island in the South Shetlands, information in Table 32.5 is from a complete inventory compiled by the King George Island GIS Project. For Deception Island, also in the South Shetlands, information is from López-Martı́nez and Serrano (2002). Elsewhere, Table 32.5 summarizes on-screen digitizing of scanned paper maps, all transformed to the WGS 84 datum and the UTM projection. The quality of these maps varies greatly. Maps of Kerguelen at 1:200,000 scale are good enough to yield acceptable estimates of elevation changes when compared with modern satellite images (Section 32.3.2). Measurements of Kerguelen glacier area in 1963–1964 given in Table 32.5 (698 km 2 ) and in Section 32.3.2 (703 51 km 2 ) were obtained by different operators working on the same map. They are within 1% of each other, illustrating the agreement that is possible between duplicate cartographic measurements. Comparable agreement is seen between duplicate measurements of Heard Island glacierization, respectively 257 km 2 (Section 32.3.1) and 254 km 2 (Table 32.5) for 1988. The map of Peter I Island in 1987 at 1:50,000 scale (NPI 1988) is as good as maps of any glacierized region can get. It was used as the basis for an inventory (Fig. 32.8) in which the ice cover was subdivided into 26 glaciers with a total area of 151 km 2 . Unfortunately, the ASTER GDEM1 of Peter I Island is unusable as a result of being based on a single image pair that was almost completely cloud covered. At the opposite extreme, the best map of the Balleny Islands (Fig. 32.9) is a crude sketch. Cartographic details are from the Soviet Atlas Antarktidy (ADD 2000; shorelines and ice margins) and Hatherton et al. (1965; conjectural formlines). Two of the largest islands have formlines, but on the third there is only a single spot height. Here the ASTER GDEM1 would represent a major advance in elementary knowledge, but it has no coverage at all of Sturge Island and Buckle Island. For Young Island, as for Montagu Island (Section 32.3.3), the GDEM1 ocean mask is based on an South Orkney Islands 6C20101 6C20102 6C20103 6C20104 6C20105 6C20106 6C20107 6C20108 6C20109 6C20110 6C20111 Elephant Gibbs Islands King George Nelson Robert Greenwich Livingston Deception Snow Low Smith 6C20200 6C20201 6C20202 6C20203 6C20204 6C20205 Laurie Saddle Powell Robertson Coronation Signy 6C202 6C20100 6C201 South Shetland Islands Clarence 6C10200 Peter I Island Inventory code 6C10100 Island Scott Region 55 0.23 67.40 68.85 61.70 61.25 61.48 61.48 62.00 62.32 62.40 62.40 62.60 62.95 62.80 63.30 63.00 60.70 60.77 60.62 60.67 60.74 60.58 60.72 179.93 90.80 57.40 54.10 55.25 55.75 58.30 59.06 59.45 59.85 60.10 60.55 61.40 62.15 62.48 45.00 44.75 44.80 45.03 45.12 45.50 45.63 6.5 404 2.3 18 486 121.6 130.4 117.6 62.3 756.6 145.4 148.1 156.6 1,085 16.2 458.6 116.1 3,314 151.0 0.05 (km 2 ) (deg) (deg) Glacierized area Latitude Longitude 1968 1979 1979 1979 1979 1979 1957 1957 1956 1979 1957 1957 1957 1957 2000 1957 1957 1957 1987 2002 Date of glacierized area 21 446 5.9 25 3 74 575 145.2 135.0 124.9 109.3 849.7 155.3 154.2 164.8 1,150 25.2 468.0 121.8 3,603 156.0 0.10 (km 2 ) Area Table 32.5. Cartographic glacier inventory of the Subantarctic (WGI region 6C). 31.0 90.6 39.0 72.0 7.7 74.3 84.5 83.8 96.6 94.2 57.0 89.0 93.6 96.0 95.0 94.4 64.3 98.0 95.3 92.0 96.8 50 (%) Glacier cover 288 1,265 346 550? 427 550? 1,265 2,100 <250 320 539 1,700 600 385 325 700 734 973 1,924 2,100 1,640 60 (m asl) Maximum elevation 772 Remote sensing of glaciers of the Subantarctic islands All 6C50101 6C50102 Buckle Sturge 6C 6C50100 Young 6C501 6C203072 Thule Balleny Islands 6C203071 Cook 6C404 6C203070 Bellingshausen Heard 6C20306 Bristol 6C403 6C20305 Montagu Kerguelen Island 6C20304 Saunders 6C401 6C203031 Vindication Marion 6C203030 Candlemas 6C301 6C20302 Visokoi Bouvet 6C20301 Leskov 6C204 6C20300 Zavodovski 6C203 South Georgia South Sandwich Islands 46.5 1 698 254 660 183 113 364 56.70 57.08 57.10 57.76 58.42 59.03 59.43 59.47 59.47 54.33 54.42 46.89 49.30 53.08 66.78 66.40 66.78 67.50 27.17 26.67 26.78 26.45 26.33 26.58 27.10 27.17 27.33 36.67 164.60 163.10 162.40 163.10 73.50 69.00 37.72 3.33 1975 56.67 28.13 7,863 15.1 20.1 0.1 94.5 93.5 25.6 0.3 4.2 24.1 0.0 (0.1) 56.30 27.58 277.6 57.76 26.45 1961 1961 1961 1988 1963–1964 1966 1985 1964 1964 1964 1964 1964 1964 1964 1964 1962 1962 1962 16,816 376 124 202 701 365 7,215 290 50.0 3,525 17.9 22.2 1.4 97.7 101.4 34.7 3.1 10.2 30.7 0.3 15.5 335.1 46.8 96.8 91.1 90.6 94.2 69.6 9.7 0.3 93.0 56.0 84.4 90.5 7.1 96.7 92.2 73.8 9.7 41.2 78.5 0.0 0.6 82.8 2,934 1,524 1,239 1,340 1,524 2,755 1,865 1,230 780 2,934 725 1,075 253 1,100 1,370 990 442 550 1,005 190 551 1,370 Cartographic Inventory of the Subantarctic 773 774 Remote sensing of glaciers of the Subantarctic islands Figure 32.8. Peter I Island, mapped in UTM projection (zone 15S, with ticks every 5 km). Shoreline, ice margin, contours at 100 m intervals, and glacier names from NPI (1988), based on air photography in 1987. Glacier boundaries (dark blue lines) and numbers (red italic type) constitute a glacier inventory prepared as described by Cogley (2009; see also Haeberli et al. 1989). The WGI region code assigned to Peter I Island is AQ6C10200. Island area is 156.0 km 2 , of which 151.0 km 2 (97%) is glacierized. (Inset) Location of Peter I Island. Figure can also be viewed as Online Supplement 32.7. estimate of position that is incorrect and only a small part of the western side of the island appears in GDEM1. However, not all of the Subantarctic is represented disappointingly by ASTER GDEM1. Fig. 32.10a shows Laurie Island in the South Orkney Islands from a 1:100,000-scale map based on January 1979 photography and older ground surveys (BAS 1988). The amount of detail is adequate for inventory purposes. A shaded relief image of the ASTER GDEM1 shows pits and bumps like those visible in Fig. 32.7b, but they are few. Fortunately, none have magnitudes detectable with the 50 m contour interval adopted for Fig. 32.10b. The 1979 position of the island is about 2 km east of the ASTER position, and as for Montagu Island it was necessary to eliminate a large number of ice floes. In fact, Figs. 32.4 and 32.7 show that a shoreline mask from an independent source is essential when using GDEM1. Summary and conclusion 775 Figure 32.9. The Balleny Islands, mapped in UTM projection (zone 58S, with a 20 km grid). Shoreline, ice margin, formlines, spot heights, and place names from ADD (2000) and Hatherton et al. (1965). The three largest islands have areas of 202 (Young I, 183 glacierized), 124 (Buckle I, 113 glacierized) and 376 (Sturge I, 364 glacierized) km 2 , respectively. ‘‘UWis 8980’’ marks the location, measured by GPS, of an automatic weather station at the northern tip of Young Island, and suggests that mapped positions are in error by several kilometers. (Inset) Location of the Balleny Islands, for which the assigned WGI region code is AQ6C501. Figure can also be viewed as Online Supplement 32.8. 32.5 SUMMARY AND CONCLUSION Glaciers on Heard Island shrank at rates of 0.18% yr1 between 1948 and 1980, 0.68% yr1 between 1980 and 1988, and 0.51% yr1 between 1988 and 2008 (Ruddell 2006; Section 32.3.1). On Kerguelen, Cook Ice Cap shrank at 0.38% yr1 between 1963 and 1991 and at 0.85% yr1 between 1991 and 2003 (Section 32.3.2). Scattered measurements elsewhere tend to corroborate these results. For example, the summit glacier on Marion Island had an area of about 1 km 2 in 1961 (Langenegger and Verwoerd 1971). Sumner et al. (2004) report that it ceased to exist during the 1990s, although they describe remnants of ice buried beneath scoria. In the South Shetland Islands, Calvet et al. (1999) documented shrinkage of the ice cover of Livingston Island between five dates spanning 1956 to 776 Remote sensing of glaciers of the Subantarctic islands Figure 32.10. (a) Laurie Island, South Orkney Islands, mapped in UTM projection (zone 23S, with ticks every 5 km). Shoreline, ice margin, contours at 100 m intervals, and place names from BAS (1988), based on air photography in 1979 and older ground surveys. Glacier boundaries (dark blue lines) and numbers (red italic type) constitute a glacier inventory prepared as described by Cogley (2009; see also Haeberli et al. 1989). The WGI region code assigned to Laurie Island is AQ6C20200. Island area is 74 km 2 , of which 55 km 2 (74%) is glacierized. (Inset) Location of Laurie Island. (b) ASTER GDEM1 map of Laurie Island, with contour intervals of 50 m. Ice margins (red) from panel (a). Panels also available as Online Supplement 32.9a, b. References 777 Table 32.6. Mass balance measurements on Subantarctic glaciers. Superscript G denotes a geodetic measurement, in each case assuming a density of 900 kg m 3 when converting volume balance to mass balance. Glacier Island Area (km 2 ) Period (no. of years) Balance (kg m 2 yr1 ) Hodges South Georgia 0.27 1958 (1) 150 Smith (1960) Hamberg South Georgia 11.40 1958 (1) 254 Smith (1960) Little Dome King George 14.00 1992 (1) þ163 Wen et al. (1998) Flagstaff King George 0.09 1958 (1) 537 Noble (1965) G1 Deception 0.42 1969–1974 (6) 412 Orheim and Govorukha (1982) Hurd G Livingston 5.24 1956–2000 (44) 74 Molina et al. (2007) Johnsons G Livingston 5.62 1956–1998 (42) 161 Molina et al. (2007) Brown G Heard 6.18 1947–2004 (57) 450 Thost and Truffer (2008) 4.40 2000–2003 (3) 1,644 500.90 1963–2000 (37) 1,400 Cook Ice Cap G Kerguelen 1996. The loss over the whole period was 31.6 km 2 from a 1956 area of 734.1 km 2 , a rate of 0.11% yr1 . The ice cover of Greenwich Island decreased from 145.4 km 2 in 1957 to 136.7 km 2 in 1991 (Ballester et al. 1993), a rate of 0.18% yr1 . Neither of these estimates includes changes in the extent of nunataks. Braun and Gossmann (2002) measured the retreat of glacier termini in Admiralty Bay, King George Island, between 1956 and 1995. The 21 glaciers drained an area of 237.7 km 2 in 1956 and 222.4 km 2 in 1992, a decrease of 15.1 km 2 at 0.18% yr1 . All of these rates are for tidewater glaciers without floating tongues, and are therefore roughly comparable with rates for Heard Island, where several glaciers remain in contact with the sea. The shrinkage rate on Kerguelen is hardly influenced at all by the presence of stable calving termini. The accelerating shrinkage of Cook Ice Cap is therefore noteworthy, although on Heard Island retreat appears to have been fastest in the 1980s. Mass balance measurements are few in the Subantarctic. Table 32.6 is a complete list. The recent geodetic measurements of Cook Ice Cap, Brown Glacier, and two glaciers on Livingston Island are significant additions. All but one of the measurements is negative. There is thus no evidence that the remote and little-known glaciers of the Subantarctic are exceptions to the rule, widely observed elsewhere, Source Section 32.3.2 that glaciers are shrinking and losing mass. Where they have been observed, Subantarctic rates of glacier retreat, shrinkage, and mass balance are comparable with those of better known regions. Future monitoring will inevitably have to rely heavily on remote sensing. Measurements of shrinkage (reduction of area) are valuable in themselves, but future work should focus more aggressively on the measurement of elevation changes by subtraction of sequential DEMs obtained from radar and optical stereo imagery. In this regard the measurements reported here are notable early contributions. 32.6 ACKNOWLEDGMENTS We thank Gregory Leonard (University of Arizona) for contribution of Online Supplement 32.5 showing the Mt. Belinda ASTER time series. ASTER data courtesy of NASA/GSFC/METI/ Japan Space Systems, the U.S./Japan ASTER Science Team, and the GLIMS project. 32.7 REFERENCES AAD (2009) Glacial Retreat on Heard Island (SCAR Map Catalogue map no. 13691), Australian Antarctic 778 Remote sensing of glaciers of the Subantarctic islands Division, Kingston, Tasmania, Australia [Scientific Committee for Antarctic Research]. 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