Energy Demand and Displaced SocialEcological Systems Impacts of LongDistance Water Conveyance: The Central Arizona Project’s Water-Energy Nexus Susanna Eden, Christopher A. Scott, Melissa Lamberton and Sharon Megdal The University of Arizona Conceptual Approach • Water-energy nexus as conventionally viewed is about resources: – Energy to access, deliver, treat water – Water for power generation – e.g. footprint calculators, “embedded” resources, $ costs • Here I reconceive, recast nexus in social-ecological systems terms: – driver of and adaptive response to global change – human-natural coupling & mutual conditioning – access & outcomes socially & politically mediated – ecological, social impacts often displaced, “invisible” Central Arizona Project – the resource nexus 4 Figure 6. Comparison of central Arizona supply and demand 2100 = 3.6 million acre-feet 15.2 million people 2075 = 3.1 million acre-feet 12.9 million people Uncertain 2045 = 2.4 million acre-feet 10.2 million people 2030 = 2.0 million af 8.5 million people Possibly Available Likely Available Currently Secured Gallons per megawatt-hour CAP nexus and displaced impacts Navajo Generating Station 1,132,056 AF are "exported" from Arizona-based reservoirs via seepage and evaporation to fulfill other states' electrical demands. CA: Export 24,501 AF Displaced impacts • Socially, Navajo and Hopi Nations are water-energy access poor despite relative resource abundance • Environmentally, Kayenta coal mine and (Navajo) “N” aquifer are impact groundzero for (displaced) real-estate development and lifestyle choices in Phoenix, Tucson, beyond • EPA regulations will drive NGS emissions compliance, but Los Angeles Water & Power will pull out Water-energy nexus as complex social-ecological system • Human-natural coupling and mutual conditioning • SES resilience to global change – because the nexus is a driver it is also an adaptive strategy • Displacement (social and environmental) can be exacerbated by purely local “green responsibility” – the Phoenix, Tucson, and Los Angeles phenomena with the CAP Thanks Comments / questions? Christopher Scott cascott@email.arizona.edu http://udallcenter.arizona.edu/wrpg/nexus Univ. Arizona students at CAP