Information Flows and Policy
Use of Climate Diagnostics and Cyclone Prediction for Adaptive Water-Resources
Management Under Climatic Uncertainty in Western North America
Inter-American Institute for Global Change Research, Project No. SGP HD 005
Final Report - August 31, 2009
Main findings and results:
• Task A: Improve the flow of climate diagnostics for policy adoption
New contributions to the BCS/RCF have come from investigators from the Centro de
Investigación Científica y de Educación Superior de Ensenada (CICESE), the University of
Washington, the National Center for Atmospheric Research, and Instituto Mexicano de
Tecnología del Agua (IMTA). Verbal agreements have been reached to obtain future
quarterly contributions from Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN), Centro de
Investigación Sobre Sequía, and the Southern Regional Climate Center. In conjunction with
efforts by member institutions of CLIMAS (funded by NOAA), our project team has
partnered with the Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN) to include cooperative activities
in a Memorandum of Understanding between SMN and NOAA. The joint activities include:
a prominent role for SMN contributions to the quarterly BCS/RCF, experimental forecasts
and data products to help meet the needs that northwest Mexico stakeholders articulated in
our November 2008 workshop, and continuing collaboration on experimental video briefings
for border-region stakeholders.
In response to stakeholder suggestions, new topics include hydrological forecasting,
paleoclimate, climate and public health, and sources of data and information. Future topics
as requested by stakeholders will include forecasts, historical and paleoclimate studies, U.S.Mexico collaborative research projects, and the linkages between climate and agriculture,
forestry, and ecology. Other suggestions that have been implemented or will be implemented
in future issues include the improved usage of Spanish language abbreviations (January
2009), increased graphic size with map locations related to value-added text (October 2009),
and products that highlight wind variations, extreme temperatures, and economic impacts.
Links to the website that contains the BCS/RCF are distributed to a total of 1,743 recipients
on two listservs, CLIMAS News (1,590 recipients) and Monsoon Regional Climate
Applications (133 recipients). Table 1 shows the breakdown of recipients based on e-mail
domains.
An experimental monsoon forecast webinar (video briefing) was held on May 21, 2009 for
regional stakeholders. Forecast presentations from SMN, the National Weather Service, the
National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), and the University of Arizona were
viewed and discussed by 37 participants, including 2 stakeholders from Mexico and 3 from
Tribal/Native Nations.
Table 1.
Distribution of the Border Climate Summary/ Resumen del Clima de la Frontera
Category
.com
.edu
.org
.gov
.fed
.az
.gob.mx
Government
subtotal
.mx
Total
Comments
Business or Internet provider (e.g., aol.com)
Education, both U.S. and Mexico
Quasi-governmental or non-governmental associations
(e.g., Pima Association of Governments)
Government (U.S.)
Government (U.S.)
Government (state of Arizona, although some use .gov)
Government (Mexico)
U.S. and Mexico
All Mexico
Count
364
498
115
355
76
134
23
588
64
1723
• Task B: Assess urban vulnerability
Monitoring and registering weather and climate data in Mexico is highly centralized, and
Servicio Meteorológico Nacional is responsible for operating the majority of the few stations
that collect data. Integrating this with other monitoring networks and building a combined
database would improve climate monitoring, studies, and information dissemination.
Knowledge has been gained on the rules, organization and networking of Civil Protection
Agencies (Protección Civil) in Sonora. This is a mainly institutional and governmental
network of agencies and local government offices to meet the population requirements during
the tropical storm emergencies. Some initial insights suggest that civil participation is scarce
and unorganized, and that increasing such participation may improve social response to
emergencies. Analysis of hurricane response in September and October of 2008 found that
information did not reach the target population in a timely and effective manner, leading to a
greater need for post-event remedial support.
Effective urban water management in much of Mexico is hindered by inefficiency, both in
terms of water loss from the physical system as well as financial loss through the lack of cost
recovery. Improving water management efficiency may increase water supplies up to 20-30
percent during a drought. An additional problem is the lack of urban development planning,
which is hindered by the fact that water managers are politically appointed for short, threeyear terms. As a result, long-term planning for climate and water resources variability as
well as demographic growth and related water supply and demand factors is difficult to
institutionalize. Instead, planning is based primarily on operational considerations of
meeting water supply schedules and incrementally obtaining additional water sources to meet
demand, specifically through agriculture to urban water transfers and the development of
new infrastructure.
Improved information on medium- to long-term climate change, decadal variation, and
drought generally receives low priority and minimal consideration by urban water managers.
These tendencies also vary by size and sophistication of the urban water utilities (organismos
operadores de agua potable). Hermosillo, as the capital of the state of Sonora, has greater
capability to confront planning challenges than does the medium-sized city of Cananea.
Aguas de Hermosillo managers who interfaced with project investigators (both one-on-one
and via workshops as described above) reported that as an autonomous utility of the
Hermosillo municipal government, their planning process was bound to mayoral election
cycles and the priorities (investment, location with the city, etc.) of the incumbent municipal
government. Nevertheless, financial resources were made available to the utility to meet the
highest-priority planning goals. By contrast, Cananea with its unique history as a mining
“company town” in the process of divestment of services (water, roads, and other
infrastructure) experiences a very critical gap in financial and personnel resources to meet
water supply targets.
In both Mexican cases considered in this project, improved climate information products and
their dissemination must be enhanced through institutional strengthening and capacity
building in order to diminish risk and improve services and outcomes.
In the U.S., specifically the state of Arizona, a mix of public utilities and private companies
manages urban water. Cities such as Tucson within the state’s designated Active
Management Areas (administered by the Arizona Department of Water Resources) must
meet assured water supply rules that account for scarcity and variability of current water
sources over a 100-year future timeframe. Institutional mechanisms to meet these
requirements include water banking and trading. However, the hydrological and water
quality implications of groundwater storage and recovery are uncertain. Sierra Vista,
Arizona is not located in an Active Management Area and hence the assured water supply
rules do not apply. Nevertheless, the congressionally mandated San Pedro Riparian National
Conservation Area imposes specific water management goals in a time-bound manner that
very significantly influence urban water supply.
On both sides of the border, there is growing recognition of the resource value of urban
wastewater, whether used informally in urban and peri-urban agriculture (primarily the case
for Hermosillo and Cananea) or as reclaimed water for urban landscaping (Tucson) or for
groundwater recharge to manage riparian water levels (Sierra Vista). These operational uses
of wastewater must be seen as adaptation options for urban water managers.
• Task C: Evaluate rural vulnerability
Throughout the region, on both sides of the U.S.-Mexico border, groundwater is being
depleted as farmers seek to adapt to climate change and variability. Crop choice, seasonal
timing, and farm income (or profits for commercial agro-industrial operations) are
determined to a greater extent by farm labor dynamics and commodity markets than by water
availability although rising costs of energy have translated into significant cost implications
for pumping groundwater. In Sonora’s coastal belt, saline intrusion is affecting aquifer water
quality with implications not just for cropping patterns but also the sustainability of land and
ultimately farming as an enterprise. Groundwater is managed distinctly in the U.S. (greater
state role) and Mexico (federal authority) although operational decisions remain with farmers
who ultimately are the ones who must adapt to long-term groundwater declines.
Similar to this project’s previous findings in Sonora, rural water managers in Arizona rarely
use climate and weather forecasts to make important decisions such as crop mixture,
irrigation schedules, and herd size. Farmers tend to produce crops based on market prices
and what grows well given long-term climate averages. Irrigation is an adaptive strategy that
allows farmers and ranchers to respond to precipitation variability and to improve control of
water inputs. However, irrigation may prove maladaptive over time as overpumping of
ground and surface water increases in Arizona and Sonora. Weather and climate information
has the potential to improve irrigation decision making, but for now decisions are primarily
made in response to rain rather than anticipation of it. Similarly, ranchers tend to either
maintain a year-to-year herd size that is sustainable regardless of the weather, or they will
alter herd size in reaction to current vegetation conditions.
Access to climate information is not a limiting factor for most farmers and ranchers in
Arizona. Interestingly, both farmers and ranchers indicated that although seasonal climate
forecasts do not usually influence their production decisions, they are always aware of what
the forecasts indicate and maintain an attitude of “hope for the best, prepare for the worst.”
• Task D: Conduct outreach and dissemination to managers
The two stakeholder workshops revealed a number of obstacles to information flows.
Participants in both workshops stressed the need for interagency communication and
cooperation, especially when they learned that other agencies could provide useful
information of which they were previously unaware. Concerns were also raised related to
both the quantity and quality of information available.
The main findings of the workshops were the following:
1. There is a need for improvements in data collection and distribution of forecasts and
climate information products. Collaboration across the border has resulted in advances in
these areas, but strengthening these ties and activities will continue to improve the
collection and communication of climate science data.
2. Information needs to be made more widely available and target a broader audience.
Thinking beyond distribution on the Internet and uniting data from various regions into
larger networks will enhance the utilization of information.
3. Information must be tailored to fit the needs of a variety of stakeholders so that this
information may be used in decisionmaking.
4. Evaluation and follow-up for adaptive response strategies will allow decision makers to
move forward with flexible adaptive water management strategies that are resilient to a
range of possible changes.