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Common Agricultural Policy
FAPRI Staff*
Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute
Briefing Paper 99-BP 24
June 1999
Center for Agricultural and Rural Development
Iowa State University
Ames, Iowa 50011-1070
www.card.iastate.edu
*FAPRI Staff who contributed to this paper are Bruce A. Babcock, John C. Beghin, Samarendu
Mohanty, Frank Fuller, Jacinto Fabiosa, Sudhir Chaudhary, Phillip Kaus, Cheng Fang, Chad Hart,
and Karen Kovarik.
This paper is available online on the CARD Web site: www.card.iastate.edu. Permission is
granted to cite this information with appropriate attribution to the authors.
Questions or comments about the contents of this paper should be directed to John Beghin, 578
Heady Hall, Iowa State University, Ames, Iowa 50011-1070; Ph: (515) 294-5811; Fax: (515) 2946336; E-mail: beghin@iastate.edu.
Iowa State University does not discriminate on the basis of race, color, age, religion, national origin, sexual orientation,
gender identity, sex, marital status, disability, or status as a U.S. veteran. Inquiries can be directed to the Director of Equal
Opportunity and Diversity, 3680 Beardshear Hall, (515) 294-7612.
ANALYSIS OF THE BERLIN ACCORD REFORMS OF THE
EUROPEAN UNION’S COMMON AGRICULTURAL POLICY
This document briefly summarizes the impacts of the European Union’s Common Agricultural
Policy (CAP) reforms on the European agricultural sector and on international agricultural trade.
Objectives of the CAP reform (as stated in EU Commission documents) are:
•= to ensure the environmental viability of European agriculture, and
•= to protect the livelihood of European farmers.
DURING THE BERLIN European Council meeting in March, 1999, European Union (EU)
heads of state reached an agreement on the political and financial guidelines of the Agenda 2000
reforms (reforms to the EU’s Common Agricultural Policy [CAP]). The guidelines were
officially adopted by the Council two months later.
An analysis of the Berlin Accord reforms (summarized in the briefing paper) was conducted by
this Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) at Iowa State University as part of
a study of the impacts of enlarging the EU to include the Central and Eastern European countries
(CEECs).1
The initial Agenda 2000 reform proposal was drafted in 1997, and, after several revisions, the
proposal now constitutes the most comprehensive plan for reform of the CAP since the
“MacSharry” reforms in 1991-92.
As with the MacSharry reforms, the Agenda 2000 proposal is intended to reduce support for
commodities through market interventions and increase support to farmers through direct
payments. The specifics of the proposed reforms are outlined in the next section.
Assumptions of the Analysis
The FAPRI modeling system was employed to simulate the implementation of the proposed
CAP reforms. This modeling system incorporates forecasts of macroeconomic variables–such as
gross domestic product (GDP), inflation rates, and exchange rates–that were obtained from
Standard and Poors DRI, Project Link, and WEFA. FAPRI researchers assume that average
weather will prevail in the projection period. Apart from the policy changes contained in the
Agenda 2000 proposal, domestic agricultural and commercial policies embodied in existing
legislation and trade agreements are assumed to remain intact.
The analysis uses the reform proposal outlined by the Agricultural Directorate General of the
European Commission (DG VI 1999; DG VI 1999a). The proposal includes the following
commodity-specific policy changes.
1
The Midwest Agribusiness Trade Research and Information Center (MATRIC) funded the EU enlargement
analysis.
Crops
The cereals intervention price is reduced by 15 percent in two equal steps, with the first
reduction occurring during the 2000/01 marketing year. Cereals producers will be compensated
for the price support reduction by increasing compensation payments from 54.34 to 63 euros per
metric ton. The base rate for compulsory set-aside is 10 percent through the 2006/07 marketing
year. Direct payments to oilseed producers will be progressively reduced to the level for cereals
by the 2002/03 marketing year. Protein crops will receive a direct payment of 9.5 euros per
metric ton in addition to the basic direct payment
Beef
The beef intervention price is reduced by 20 percent over a three-year period. In July 2002, the
intervention price will be replaced by a beef basic price of 2224 euros per metric ton, and a
private storage aid scheme will be introduced. Beef producers will be compensated for the
decline in market prices by a phased increase in the special premium for steers and bulls and the
suckler cow premium to 300, 210, and 200 euros per head, respectively. In addition, a slaughter
premium is introduced, paying 80 euros per head for adult animals and 50 euros per head for
calves. All producer premiums are capped at the regional level to contain expenditures;
however, national governments may supplement producer payments up to the national financial
expenditure limit established for each country. Finally, the extensification premium is increased
to encourage reduced stocking densities.
Dairy
The current milk quota system is retained under Agenda 2000; however, quotas are increased in
two stages. In 2000 and 2001, quotas for Greece, Spain, Ireland, Italy, and Northern Ireland are
increased to more accurately reflect current production. Quotas for all countries are increased by
1.5 percent over the three-year period beginning in 2005. Butter and skim milk powder (SMP)
intervention prices are reduced by 15 percent in three equal steps beginning in 2005. Producers
will be compensated for the price reduction by the introduction of a payment of 17.24 euros per
metric ton of milk delivered under the quota system.
The Agenda 2000 proposal also outlines new regulations governing wine production and rural
development policy. These regulations are an integral part of the proposed reforms, particularly
the rural development policy; nevertheless, they do not affect the analysis described in this
document and are ignored in the following discussion of the analysis results.
Results
The commodity policy changes described above were implemented in the FAPRI international
agricultural policy model, and the model simulated the Agenda 2000 reforms through the
2008/09 crop year. The simulation results are compared to the 1999 FAPRI world agricultural
baseline (FAPRI 1999) to assess the impacts of the policy changes on European and international
agricultural markets.
Impacts on Crops. The impacts on the crop sector largely depend on the assumed EU set-aside
rate, both in the baseline and the Berlin Accord analysis. In the baseline, the set-aside rate was
Analysis of the Berlin Accord Reforms / 3
raised from 10 percent in 1999/00 to 15 percent in 2008/09 based on market conditions. For the
Berlin Accord scenario, a 10 percent set-aside is maintained throughout the period, as indicated
in the accord.
With a set-aside rate of 10 percent for 2000/01 and 2001/02, both in the baseline and the
scenario, the Berlin Accord is not projected to have any significant impact on crop production.
Total crop area declines slightly during this period, due to an increase in voluntary set-aside area
in response to the lower intervention price. After 2001, the total area devoted to cereals and
oilseeds increases because the set-aside rate is below the baseline level.
The 2 percent reduction in set-aside each year during 2002 to 2004 and the 5 percent reduction
during 2005 to 2008 increases crop area by little over 1 and 3 percent
43000
16
42500
14
42000
12
41500
10
41000
8
40500
6
40000
Percent
Thousand Hectares
Figure 1. EU Crop Area and Set Aside Rates
4
39500
2
39000
0
38500
1 9 9 8 /9 9
B ase line A r ea
2 0 0 0 /0 1
2 0 0 2 /0 3
A G 20 0 0 A rea
2 0 0 4 /0 5
2 0 0 6 /0 7
B a selin e S et A sid e
2 0 0 8 /0 9
A G 20 00 S et A sid e
respectively (see Figure 1). Most of the rise in total area is likely to go into wheat production
because the expected net return for wheat does not decline as much as for corn and barley. The
addition of less productive land in production and lower prices cause a small decline in EU
cereal yields.
A modest change is projected for domestic use of cereals, with feed use rising mainly because of
lower prices. In the baseline, EU wheat stock rises steadily until 2005/06 because weaker world
prices restrict EU exports to the maximum level allowed by the Uruguay Round Agreement on
Agriculture (URAA). After 2005, commercial exports expand as the worldprice strengthens.
However, under the Berlin Accord, the decline in the intervention price enables the EU to export
wheat without subsidy from 2001/02, and commercial exports expand above the baseline levels
(see Figure 2). The increase in wheat exports results in a steady reduction of cereal intervention
stocks.
Figure 2. EU Wheat Exports and Price
Million Metric Tons
125
20
120
15
115
10
110
105
5
100
95
0
1998/99
2000/01
Baseline Exports
2002/03
AG 2000 Exports
2004/05
2006/07
Baseline Price
2008/09
AG 2000 Price
EURO per Metric Ton
130
25
Analysis of the Berlin Accord Reforms / 5
By equalizing the direct payments for both cereals and oilseeds, the Berlin Accord puts an end to
restrictions on oilseed plantings contained in the Blair House Agreement; thus, planting
decisions should be driven by market factors. Based on relative returns, oilseed area is projected
to decline in the Berlin Accord scenario.
Impacts on the U.S. and World Markets
Implementation of the Berlin Accord is likely to expand EU exports and reduce world prices for
most crops. However, changes in world market prices are likely to be small. The United States
and the EU compete most heavily in the world wheat market. Because the EU would produce
and export more wheat under the Berlin Accord, the world reference price for wheat is expected
to decline by an average of 2 to 3 percent (see Figure 3). Similarly, U.S. wheat exports are likely
to fall by 2 to 3 percent. In addition to the United States, wheat exports by other major exporters
such as Argentina, Australia, and Canada also decline by 1 to 2 percent. Unlike wheat, U.S. corn
and soybean prices are projected to fall by less than 1 percent. The reduction in EU oilseed
production under the Berlin Accord increases U.S. soybean and soybean meal exports slightly.
31
180
30
170
29
160
28
150
27
140
26
130
25
120
24
110
100
23
1998/99
2000/01
Baseline Exports
2002/03
AG 2000 Exports
2004/05
2006/07
Baseline Price
2008/09
AG 2000 Price
US Dollars per Metric Ton
Million Metric Tons
Figure 3. US Wheat Exports and Price
6 / FAPRI Staff
Livestock
The impacts of the Berlin Accord in the livestock sector are dominated by changes in the EU
beef market. The phased reduction in the beef intervention price prompts the release of beef
intervention stocks, reducing domestic beef prices. The magnitude of the decline in EU beef
prices is determined, in part, by how the Commission handles export subsidies. If subsidized
beef exports are maintained at the maximum levels allowed under the URAA, domestic beef
prices will be supported, counteracting efforts to increase international competitiveness through
the reduction in the intervention price.
Consequently, we assume the EU Commission will reduce subsidized beef exports as long as
industry revenues are as great as under the baseline. The net impact on the EU average beef
producer price is a 6.44 and a 7.42 percent decline in 2000 and 2001 relative to the baseline
projections. EU beef net exports are an average of 150 thousand metric tons below the baseline
during those two years.
By 2002, the intervention price reductions are complete, and intervention stocks are eliminated.
We assume that private beef stocks will replace intervention stocks at a level near 2.5 percent of
annual beef consumption. In 2002, EU beef prices are 5 percent below the U.S. price. Although
U.S. and European beef are not perfect substitutes on international markets, it is assumed that
with the 5 percent price discount, the EU can export beef without subsidy. The EU will most
likely continue to subsidize beef exports to certain markets; however, beef exports will not be
constrained by URAA limits. Consequently, EU beef prices move with international prices from
2002 onward, and beef exports exceed the baseline levels five of seven years from 2002 to 2008.
Figure 4 summarizes the movements in the EU and U.S. beef prices and changes in beef exports.
Beef producers in the EU respond to lower prices by decreasing beef production slightly relative
to the baseline, averaging 0.5 percent lower. The downward pressures on beef production are
offset partially by producer payments, changes in dairy cow inventories, and reductions in feed
costs. We assume that most direct payments to producers are coupled to production over some
range cattle inventories. Though the degree of coupling and the relevant ranges are not known,
FAPRI researchers approximate the positive impacts on production by assuming the increases in
the special premium to male animals if fully coupled.
Lower beef prices encourage consumers in the EU to increase their consumption of beef between
1.5 and 3 percent over the baseline levels. Substitution effects away from pork and poultry
consumption are fully compensated by lower pork and poultry prices. Lower cereal and oilseed
prices prompt small increases in EU pork and poultry production, averaging less than 1 percent,
inducing an average decline in EU pork and poultry prices of 3.8 to 4 percent relative to the
baseline.
7 / FAPRI Staff
150
250
100
225
50
200
0
175
-50
150
-100
125
-150
-200
EURO/100 kg Deadweight
Thousand Metric Tons
Figure 4. EU and U S Beef Prices and Export C hanges
100
1998
20 00
EU Exports
2002
U .S. Exports
2004
E U P rice
2006
20 08
U .S. P rice
Dairy
The impacts of the Berlin Accord on the dairy sector are modest during the first five years of the
simulation period. The increase in the milk quota in 2000 and 2001 raises milk production by
less than 1 percent, depressing the milk price an average of 2.5 percent. The larger increase in
the dairy quota beginning in 2005 raises milk production 1.6 percent above the baseline in 2008.
As in the baseline, dairy cow inventories are expected to decline throughout the projection period
in response to greater output per cow. Nevertheless, the increase in the dairy quota slows the
decline in cow inventories, leaving cow numbers 1.52 percent above the baseline levels in 2008.
Butter and SMP intervention prices are reduced concurrently with the second
increase in the milk quota. The combination of lower market support and increased production
pushes the milk price 9.5 percent below the baseline in 2007. Butter and SMP prices decline up
to 10.95 and 11.54 percent, respectively, causing milk processors to shift milk away from butter
and SMP production and into cheese and whole milk powder (WMP) production.
EU cheese output rises 3 percent over the baseline, inducing a 7.6 percent decline in the domestic
cheese price by 2007. As a consequence, EU cheese exports are projected to rise more than 5
percent over the baseline projection. Declines in SMP production coupled with increases in
domestic consumption lead to a 17 percent decline in EU SMP exports in 2007. Figure 5
displays the changes in EU dairy product exports expressed in milk equivalent.
Analysis of the Berlin Accord Reforms / 9
Figure 5. EU Dairy Product Export Changes in Milk Equivalent
Thousand Metric Tons
1000
500
0
-500
-1000
-1500
-2000
2000
2001
2002
2003
Cheese
2004
Butter
2005
SMP
2006
2007
2008
WMP
Concluding Remarks
The CAP reforms resulting from the Berlin Accord are likely to create substantial changes in
European agricultural markets. In particular, implementation of the Berlin Accord will expand
cereal production in the EU, lowering wheat prices and enhancing the EU’s ability to export
without subsidies. This will lead to lower world wheat prices and also lower U.S. exports.
Prices of other crops, such as corn, soybeans, and barley are lower under the Berlin Accord,
though the effects are much smaller than for wheat. Likewise, policy changes in the livestock
and dairy sector will lower beef and dairy product prices between 5 and 15 percent. EU beef
exports may no longer be constrained by export subsidy reduction commitments, as EU domestic
beef prices fall below the world price.
The impact of changes in the EU beef market on U.S. beef prices and exports is small.
Expansion in EU milk output will be channeled predominately into cheese production, lowering
EU prices and increasing cheese exports.
The results reported in this analysis are dependent on series of assumptions relating to the
functioning of EU markets and to the future world agricultural and macro-economic situations.
Changes in the underlying assumptions could significantly alter the results reported in this study.
References
Directorate General VI (Agriculture). 1999. “Agriculture Council: Policy Agreement on CAP
Reform.” DG VI Newsletter (Special Edition), March 11, 1999
<http://europa.eu.int/comm/dg06/publi/newsletter/spec1_en.htm> June 14, 1999.
Directorate General VI (Agriculture). 1999a. “Berlin European Council: Agenda 2000,
conclusions of the Presidency.” DG VI Newsletter (10), March 1999 <
http://europa.eu.int/comm/dg06/publi/newsletter/10_en.htm> June 14, 1999.
Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI). 1999. FAPRI 1999 World Agricultural
Outlook. Staff Report 2-99, Ames, Iowa.
Impacts of Agenda 2000 U.S. Wheat Trade
99/00
Exports
Baseline
Agenda 2000 Scenario
Change
% Change
FOB Gulf Price
Baseline
Agenda 2000 Scenario
Change
% Change
28.35
28.39
0.04
0.13%
00/01
01/02
02/03
29.49
29.43
-0.06
-0.19%
30.72
30.25
-0.47
-1.53%
31.14
30.46
-0.68
-2.19%
03/04
04/05
05/06
(Million Metric Tons)
31.46
32.01
32.68
30.48
30.79
31.13
-0.98
-1.22
-1.55
-3.12% -3.82% -4.74%
06/07
07/08
32.50
31.46
-1.04
-3.19%
32.23
31.66
-0.57
-1.77%
08/09
31.88
31.99
0.11
0.34%
(Dollars per Metric Ton)
134.69 141.93 145.98 149.92 155.20 158.66 162.80 163.71 165.32 167.11
134.83 142.03 144.58 147.55 151.48 154.28 156.92 160.26 162.87 166.89
0.14
0.10
-1.40
-2.37
-3.72
-4.38
-5.88
-3.45
-2.45
-0.22
0.10%
0.07% -0.96% -1.58% -2.40% -2.76% -3.61% -2.11% -1.48% -0.13%
Impacts of Agenda 2000 U.S. Corn Trade
99/00
00/01
01/02
Exports
Baseline
Agenda 2000 Scenario
Change
% Change
44.29
44.34
0.05
0.12%
45.43
45.58
0.15
0.32%
47.52
47.91
0.39
0.82%
FOB Gulf Price
Baseline
Agenda 2000 Scenario
Change
% Change
91.54
91.60
0.06
0.06%
94.05
94.23
0.18
0.19%
95.80
96.07
0.27
0.28%
02/03
49.10
49.48
0.38
0.77%
03/04
04/05
(Million Metric Tons)
50.27
51.67
50.83
52.40
0.56
0.73
1.10%
1.42%
05/06
53.73
54.23
0.50
0.94%
06/07
55.86
56.12
0.26
0.46%
07/08
57.90
58.20
0.30
0.51%
08/09
60.54
60.04
-0.50
-0.83%
(Dollars per Metric Ton)
98.61 101.83 103.85 106.32 107.96 109.90 112.95
98.17 101.20 102.94 104.90 106.49 108.73 111.40
-0.44
-0.63
-0.91
-1.42
-1.47
-1.17
-1.55
-0.44% -0.62% -0.87% -1.34% -1.36% -1.07% -1.37%
Impacts of Agenda 2000 U.S. Barley Trade
1 of 3
99/00
00/01
01/02
Exports
Baseline
Agenda 2000 Scenario
Change
% Change
0.71
0.71
0.00
-0.18%
0.77
0.77
0.00
-0.19%
Portland
Baseline
Agenda 2000 Scenario
Change
% Change
(Dollars per Metric Ton)
115.71 117.49 118.83 122.04 124.79 126.69 128.57 130.06 131.88 134.69
115.76 117.65 118.98 121.09 124.12 125.01 127.03 127.66 131.36 132.76
0.05
0.16
0.15
-0.95
-0.67
-1.68
-1.54
-2.40
-0.52
-1.93
0.04%
0.14%
0.12% -0.77% -0.54% -1.32% -1.20% -1.84% -0.40% -1.43%
0.82
0.82
0.00
0.61%
02/03
0.83
0.85
0.02
2.14%
U.S.
03/04
04/05
05/06
(Million Metric Tons)
0.88
0.91
0.96
0.88
0.94
0.96
0.00
0.03
0.00
-0.12%
2.93% -0.19%
06/07
0.99
1.02
0.03
2.74%
07/08
1.02
1.00
-0.02
-2.24%
08/09
1.06
1.07
0.01
1.03%
I:\BHEMPE\FAPRI\0699 Briefing Paper Ag2000.xls
Impacts of Agenda 2000 U.S. Soybeans Trade
99/00
00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
04/05
05/06
06/07
07/08
08/09
Exports
Baseline
Agenda 2000 Scenario
Change
% Change
25.97
25.97
0.00
-0.01%
FOB Gulf Price
Baseline
Agenda 2000 Scenario
Change
% Change
(Dollars per Metric Ton)
203.45 207.17 211.76 214.84 216.40 220.16 222.18 225.97 227.49 232.28
203.40 207.49 212.28 214.81 215.30 218.79 220.44 223.33 226.01 230.58
-0.05
0.32
0.52
-0.03
-1.10
-1.37
-1.74
-2.64
-1.48
-1.70
-0.02%
0.16%
0.24% -0.01% -0.51% -0.62% -0.78% -1.17% -0.65% -0.73%
26.25
26.25
0.00
0.00%
26.31
26.30
-0.01
-0.04%
26.56
26.57
0.01
0.05%
(Million Metric Tons)
26.82
27.01
26.87
27.07
0.05
0.06
0.18%
0.23%
27.33
27.42
0.09
0.32%
27.59
27.70
0.11
0.38%
27.98
28.07
0.09
0.32%
28.31
28.41
0.10
0.35%
Impacts of Agenda 2000 U.S. Soy Meal Trade
99/00
00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
04/05
05/06
06/07
07/08
08/09
Exports
Baseline
Agenda 2000 Scenario
Change
% Change
7.29
7.29
0.00
-0.01%
48% Meal Price
Baseline
Agenda 2000 Scenario
Change
% Change
(Dollars per Metric Ton)
156.25 163.03 170.23 177.19 181.65 186.76 191.11 195.63 197.70 203.32
156.24 163.62 171.18 177.35 180.95 185.59 189.56 193.69 196.64 201.64
-0.01
0.59
0.95
0.16
-0.70
-1.17
-1.55
-1.94
-1.06
-1.68
-0.01%
0.36%
0.56%
0.09% -0.39% -0.62% -0.81% -0.99% -0.54% -0.83%
7.27
7.30
0.03
0.43%
7.19
7.24
0.04
0.58%
7.29
7.34
0.06
0.77%
(Million Metric Tons)
7.31
7.51
7.37
7.57
0.06
0.07
0.89%
0.91%
7.71
7.80
0.08
1.06%
8.00
8.10
0.09
1.18%
8.34
8.44
0.10
1.25%
8.58
8.68
0.10
1.12%
Impacts of Agenda 2000 U.S. Soy Oil Trade
99/00
Exports
Baseline
Agenda 2000 Scenario
Change
% Change
Price Decater
Baseline
Agenda 2000 Scenario
Change
% Change
2 of 3
1.089
1.089
0.00
0.01%
00/01
1.091
1.092
0.00
0.06%
01/02
1.076
1.076
0.00
0.08%
02/03
1.103
1.102
0.00
-0.11%
03/04
04/05
05/06
(Million Metric Tons)
1.124
1.172
1.227
1.123
1.170
1.224
0.00
0.00
0.00
-0.16% -0.16% -0.19%
06/07
1.298
1.296
0.00
-0.13%
07/08
1.385
1.387
0.00
0.15%
08/09
1.486
1.488
0.00
0.16%
(Dollars per Metric Ton)
540.41 538.81 530.64 519.65 510.21 509.36 506.61 510.85 516.55 526.06
540.30 538.40 529.81 518.75 508.19 507.69 504.81 507.49 514.85 525.12
-0.11
-0.41
-0.83
-0.90
-2.02
-1.67
-1.80
-3.36
-1.70
-0.94
-0.02% -0.08% -0.16% -0.17% -0.40% -0.33% -0.35% -0.66% -0.33% -0.18%
U.S.
I:\BHEMPE\FAPRI\0699 Briefing Paper Ag2000.xls
Impacts of Agenda 2000 U.S. Beef Trade
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Exports
Baseline
Agenda 2000 Scenario
Change
% Change
1,017
1,017
0.00
0.0%
1,126
1,223
97.15
8.6%
1,196
1,289
93.09
7.8%
(Thousand Metric Tons)
1,260
1,363
1,469
1,219
1,317
1,464
-41.08
-46.81
-4.45
-3.3%
-3.4%
-0.3%
1,637
1,666
28.67
1.8%
1,813
1,856
43.44
2.4%
1,852
1,855
3.67
0.2%
1,810
1,760
-50.22
-2.8%
Steer Price
Baseline
Agenda 2000 Scenario
Change
% Change
1,449
1,449
0.00
0.0%
1,528
1,559
31.46
2.1%
1,605
1,639
34.61
2.2%
(Dollars per Metric Ton)
1,665
1,644
1,613
1,655
1,620
1,592
-9.81
-23.69
-21.22
-0.6%
-1.4%
-1.3%
1,563
1,552
-11.30
-0.7%
1,530
1,530
-0.67
0.0%
1,569
1,562
-7.09
-0.5%
1,644
1,621
-23.25
-1.4%
2005
2006
Impacts of Agenda 2000 U.S. Pork Trade
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2007
2008
Exports
Baseline
Agenda 2000 Scenario
Change
% Change
642
642
0.00
0.0%
674
662
-11.43
-1.7%
709
696
-12.18
-1.7%
(Thousand Metric Tons)
788
846
893
951
791
848
882
929
2.20
1.97
-11.37
-22.65
0.3%
0.2%
-1.3%
-2.4%
1,013
986
-27.19
-2.7%
1,079
1,060
-19.59
-1.8%
1,149
1,142
-7.41
-0.6%
Barrow & Gilt Price
Baseline
Agenda 2000 Scenario
Change
% Change
781
781
0.00
0.0%
937
944
6.77
0.7%
980
984
3.97
0.4%
(Dollars per Metric Ton)
958
805
922
994
948
795
917
993
-9.62
-9.68
-4.63
-1.03
-1.0%
-1.2%
-0.5%
-0.1%
938
937
-0.47
-0.1%
864
859
-4.78
-0.6%
920
910
-9.76
-1.1%
Impacts of Agenda 2000 U.S. Poultry Trade
1999
3 of 3
2000
2001
Exports
Baseline
Agenda 2000 Scenario
Change
% Change
1,987
1,987
0.00
0.0%
2,270
2,260
-9.49
-0.4%
2,365
2,351
-13.93
-0.6%
Broiler 12 City Price
Baseline
Agenda 2000 Scenario
Change
% Change
1,310
1,310
0.00
0.0%
1,242
1,246
3.49
0.3%
1,258
1,260
2.11
0.2%
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
(Thousand Metric Tons)
2,522
2,779
2,936
3,077
2,512
2,765
2,918
3,058
-9.39
-13.23
-17.19
-18.98
-0.4%
-0.5%
-0.6%
-0.6%
3,228
3,211
-16.74
-0.5%
3,362
3,353
-8.61
-0.3%
3,451
3,449
-1.96
-0.1%
(Dollars per Metric Ton)
1,252
1,256
1,253
1,248
1,251
1,247
-4.25
-5.47
-5.52
-0.3%
-0.4%
-0.4%
1,248
1,242
-5.97
-0.5%
1,240
1,232
-7.34
-0.6%
1,239
1,230
-9.41
-0.8%
1,254
1,244
-10.29
-0.8%
U.S.
I:\BHEMPE\FAPRI\0699 Briefing Paper Ag2000.xls
Impacts of Agenda 2000 on World Wheat Trade
1 of 3
98/99
99/00
00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
04/05
05/06
06/07
07/08
08/09
Net Exporters
Argentina
Baseline
Agenda 2000 Scenario
Change
% Change
5.98
5.98
0.00
0.0%
6.27
6.27
0.00
0.0%
6.48
6.48
0.00
0.0%
(Million Metric Tons)
6.72
6.94
7.15
6.72
6.92
7.12
0.00
-0.02
-0.03
0.0%
-0.3%
-0.5%
7.37
7.32
-0.05
-0.7%
7.59
7.52
-0.07
-0.9%
7.80
7.72
-0.08
-1.1%
7.99
7.92
-0.07
-0.8%
8.19
8.15
-0.05
-0.6%
Australia
Baseline
Agenda 2000 Scenario
Change
% Change
13.97
13.97
0.00
0.0%
14.95
14.95
0.00
0.0%
14.70
14.70
0.00
0.0%
14.41
14.41
0.00
0.0%
14.38
14.37
-0.01
-0.1%
14.61
14.59
-0.02
-0.1%
14.99
14.95
-0.04
-0.3%
15.42
15.36
-0.07
-0.4%
15.85
15.75
-0.10
-0.6%
16.24
16.12
-0.11
-0.7%
16.55
16.44
-0.12
-0.7%
Canada
Baseline
Agenda 2000 Scenario
Change
% Change
15.30
15.30
0.00
0.0%
15.54
15.54
0.01
0.0%
15.66
15.66
0.00
0.0%
15.88
15.80
-0.07
-0.5%
16.15
16.00
-0.15
-0.9%
16.49
16.25
-0.24
-1.5%
16.83
16.50
-0.33
-1.9%
17.18
16.75
-0.43
-2.5%
17.52
17.13
-0.40
-2.3%
17.68
17.34
-0.33
-1.9%
17.85
17.65
-0.20
-1.1%
Eastern Europe
Baseline
Agenda 2000 Scenario
Change
% Change
1.18
1.18
0.00
0.0%
0.67
0.65
-0.02
-3.2%
1.16
1.15
-0.01
-0.9%
1.40
1.35
-0.05
-3.4%
1.45
1.36
-0.09
-6.0%
1.45
1.32
-0.13
-9.2%
1.41
1.24
-0.17
-12.1%
1.40
1.17
-0.23
-16.4%
1.31
1.12
-0.19
-14.6%
1.28
1.14
-0.14
-11.2%
1.21
1.18
-0.03
-2.9%
United States
Baseline
Agenda 2000 Scenario
Change
% Change
27.37
27.37
0.00
0.0%
25.90
25.94
0.03
0.1%
27.03
26.98
-0.05
-0.2%
28.26
27.80
-0.46
-1.6%
28.68
28.01
-0.67
-2.3%
29.01
28.03
-0.98
-3.4%
29.56
28.34
-1.22
-4.1%
30.25
28.68
-1.57
-5.2%
30.08
29.01
-1.07
-3.5%
29.83
29.21
-0.62
-2.1%
29.48
29.54
0.07
0.2%
European Union
Baseline
Agenda 2000 Scenario
Change
% Change
15.24
15.24
0.00
0.0%
14.72
14.67
-0.05
-0.4%
13.29
13.29
0.00
0.0%
13.29
14.18
0.88
6.7%
13.29
15.05
1.76
13.2%
13.29
16.05
2.76
20.8%
13.29
16.95
3.65
27.5%
13.29
18.02
4.72
35.5%
15.16
19.08
3.92
25.9%
17.40
20.15
2.75
15.8%
20.62
21.48
0.86
4.2%
Other Exporters
Baseline
Agenda 2000 Scenario
Change
% Change
22.23
22.23
0.00
0.0%
22.91
22.91
0.00
0.0%
24.41
24.43
0.01
0.1%
25.09
25.01
-0.08
-0.3%
25.97
25.64
-0.33
-1.3%
26.44
25.97
-0.47
-1.8%
27.01
26.33
-0.68
-2.5%
27.47
26.67
-0.79
-2.9%
27.75
26.89
-0.86
-3.1%
27.88
27.34
-0.54
-1.9%
27.64
27.34
-0.30
-1.1%
Net Importers
Japan
Baseline
Agenda 2000 Scenario
Change
% Change
5.80
5.80
0.00
0.0%
5.80
5.80
0.00
0.0%
5.79
5.79
0.00
0.0%
5.80
5.80
0.00
0.0%
5.81
5.81
0.00
0.0%
5.84
5.84
0.00
0.0%
5.87
5.87
0.00
0.0%
5.89
5.89
0.00
0.0%
5.93
5.93
0.00
0.0%
5.97
5.97
0.00
0.0%
6.01
6.01
0.00
0.0%
China
Baseline
Agenda 2000 Scenario
Change
% Change
1.00
1.00
0.00
0.0%
0.98
0.97
-0.01
-1.2%
1.55
1.54
-0.01
-0.6%
2.17
2.25
0.08
3.7%
2.81
3.02
0.21
7.4%
2.57
2.99
0.42
16.2%
2.28
2.84
0.56
24.6%
1.88
2.69
0.81
43.0%
1.71
2.43
0.72
42.2%
1.63
2.28
0.65
39.8%
1.74
2.02
0.28
16.4%
Brazil
Baseline
Agenda 2000 Scenario
Change
% Change
5.86
5.86
0.00
0.0%
5.96
5.96
0.00
0.0%
6.03
6.03
0.00
0.0%
6.10
6.10
0.00
0.0%
6.15
6.16
0.01
0.1%
6.22
6.22
0.01
0.1%
6.29
6.30
0.01
0.1%
6.38
6.39
0.01
0.2%
6.48
6.49
0.01
0.1%
6.57
6.57
0.01
0.1%
6.66
6.67
0.00
0.1%
Mexico
Baseline
Agenda 2000 Scenario
Change
% Change
2.25
2.25
0.00
0.0%
2.26
2.26
0.00
0.0%
2.32
2.32
0.00
0.0%
2.38
2.38
0.00
0.1%
2.47
2.48
0.01
0.3%
2.58
2.59
0.01
0.4%
2.69
2.70
0.01
0.5%
2.81
2.83
0.02
0.6%
2.95
2.96
0.02
0.5%
3.10
3.11
0.01
0.3%
3.26
3.26
0.00
0.1%
Rest of World
Baseline
Agenda 2000 Scenario
Change
% Change
65.23
65.23
0.00
0.0%
64.06
64.06
0.00
0.0%
64.70
64.68
-0.02
0.0%
66.08
66.27
0.18
0.3%
66.84
67.23
0.39
0.6%
68.03
68.66
0.63
0.9%
69.56
70.40
0.84
1.2%
71.23
72.32
1.09
1.5%
73.45
74.30
0.85
1.2%
75.52
76.11
0.59
0.8%
77.92
78.06
0.14
0.2%
Trade Selected Countries
I:\BHEMPE\FAPRI\0699 Briefing Paper Ag2000.xls
Impacts of Agenda 2000 on World Corn Trade
2 of 3
98/99
99/00
00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
04/05
05/06
06/07
07/08
08/09
Net Exporters
Argentina
Baseline
Agenda 2000 Scenario
Change
% Change
9.00
9.00
0.00
0.0%
7.67
7.67
0.00
0.0%
7.62
7.62
0.00
0.0%
(Million Metric Tons)
7.70
7.86
8.08
7.70
7.85
8.06
0.00
-0.01
-0.01
0.0%
-0.1%
-0.2%
8.34
8.33
-0.01
-0.2%
8.60
8.59
-0.01
-0.1%
8.85
8.84
-0.01
-0.1%
9.08
9.08
0.00
0.0%
9.30
9.30
0.00
0.0%
United States
Baseline
Agenda 2000 Scenario
Change
% Change
42.46
42.46
0.00
0.0%
44.04
44.09
0.05
0.1%
45.18
45.33
0.15
0.3%
47.27
47.65
0.38
0.8%
48.85
49.23
0.38
0.8%
50.02
50.57
0.55
1.1%
51.41
52.15
0.74
1.4%
53.47
53.97
0.50
0.9%
55.60
55.86
0.26
0.5%
57.64
57.95
0.31
0.5%
60.27
59.78
-0.49
-0.8%
Eastern Europe
Baseline
Agenda 2000 Scenario
Change
% Change
1.49
1.49
0.00
0.0%
1.36
1.36
0.00
-0.3%
1.76
1.77
0.01
0.7%
1.95
2.01
0.06
3.1%
2.17
2.21
0.04
2.1%
2.30
2.33
0.03
1.2%
2.30
2.34
0.03
1.4%
2.33
2.32
-0.01
-0.3%
2.31
2.28
-0.03
-1.1%
2.29
2.21
-0.08
-3.6%
2.30
2.21
-0.09
-3.7%
Other Exporters
Baseline
Agenda 2000 Scenario
Change
% Change
2.10
2.10
0.00
0.0%
1.96
1.96
0.00
0.2%
1.94
1.95
0.01
0.3%
1.99
2.01
0.02
0.9%
2.06
2.06
0.01
0.4%
2.11
2.12
0.01
0.5%
2.17
2.18
0.01
0.4%
2.23
2.24
0.01
0.3%
2.31
2.29
-0.01
-0.5%
2.38
2.36
-0.02
-0.7%
2.48
2.44
-0.04
-1.7%
Net Importers
Japan
Baseline
Agenda 2000 Scenario
Change
% Change
15.50
15.50
0.00
0.0%
15.39
15.40
0.01
0.1%
15.26
15.26
0.00
0.0%
15.14
15.12
-0.02
-0.1%
14.96
14.95
0.00
0.0%
14.83
14.83
0.00
0.0%
14.53
14.53
0.00
0.0%
14.33
14.34
0.01
0.1%
14.20
14.21
0.01
0.1%
14.10
14.10
0.00
0.0%
13.97
13.97
0.00
0.0%
China
Baseline
Agenda 2000 Scenario
Change
% Change
-3.50
-3.50
0.00
0.0%
-3.75
-3.76
-0.01
0.4%
-3.42
-3.45
-0.03
0.9%
-2.10
-2.10
0.00
0.0%
-0.91
-0.15
-0.79
0.02
0.13
0.17
-14.0% -111.1%
0.91
1.10
0.20
21.8%
1.98
2.27
0.29
14.8%
3.11
3.27
0.17
5.4%
4.01
4.12
0.11
2.8%
5.29
4.82
-0.48
-9.0%
South Korea
Baseline
Agenda 2000 Scenario
Change
% Change
6.50
6.50
0.00
0.0%
6.91
6.91
0.00
0.0%
6.86
6.86
0.00
-0.1%
6.94
6.93
-0.01
-0.2%
7.09
7.08
-0.01
-0.1%
7.23
7.22
-0.02
-0.2%
7.30
7.28
-0.02
-0.2%
7.39
7.38
-0.02
-0.2%
7.52
7.53
0.00
0.1%
7.64
7.64
0.01
0.1%
7.70
7.73
0.03
0.4%
Rest of World
Baseline
Agenda 2000 Scenario
Change
% Change
36.55
36.55
0.00
0.0%
36.47
36.52
0.05
0.1%
37.80
37.99
0.19
0.5%
38.95
39.43
0.49
1.3%
39.80
40.11
0.31
0.8%
40.60
41.02
0.42
1.0%
41.49
42.08
0.58
1.4%
42.94
43.14
0.20
0.5%
44.24
44.27
0.03
0.1%
45.64
45.73
0.09
0.2%
47.38
47.22
-0.17
-0.4%
Trade Selected Countries
I:\BHEMPE\FAPRI\0699 Briefing Paper Ag2000.xls
Impacts of Agenda 2000 on World Barley Trade
3 of 3
98/99
99/00
00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
04/05
05/06
06/07
07/08
08/09
Net Exporters
Australia
Baseline
Agenda 2000 Scenario
Change
% Change
2.55
2.55
0.00
0.0%
2.53
2.53
0.00
0.0%
2.43
2.43
0.00
0.0%
(Million Metric Tons)
2.41
2.40
2.39
2.42
2.41
2.40
0.00
0.01
0.01
0.2%
0.2%
0.4%
2.37
2.39
0.01
0.6%
2.36
2.38
0.02
0.8%
2.35
2.37
0.02
0.9%
2.35
2.37
0.02
0.8%
2.37
2.38
0.01
0.5%
Canada
Baseline
Agenda 2000 Scenario
Change
% Change
1.59
1.59
0.00
0.0%
1.18
1.18
0.00
0.0%
1.04
1.04
0.00
0.0%
1.00
1.00
0.00
0.0%
1.04
1.03
-0.01
-0.6%
1.11
1.10
-0.01
-1.3%
1.18
1.16
-0.02
-1.5%
1.27
1.25
-0.03
-2.1%
1.37
1.34
-0.03
-2.4%
1.47
1.44
-0.03
-2.2%
1.58
1.55
-0.03
-1.6%
Other Exporters
Baseline
Agenda 2000 Scenario
Change
% Change
8.16
8.16
0.00
0.0%
9.30
9.25
-0.05
-0.5%
9.75
9.75
0.00
0.0%
10.16
10.24
0.08
0.8%
10.50
10.65
0.14
1.4%
10.70
10.85
0.16
1.5%
10.86
11.15
0.29
2.7%
10.81
11.41
0.60
5.5%
10.91
11.51
0.60
5.5%
11.09
11.84
0.74
6.7%
11.39
12.21
0.82
7.2%
Net Importers
Eastern Europe
Baseline
Agenda 2000 Scenario
Change
% Change
-0.04
-0.04
0.00
0.0%
-0.11
-0.11
0.00
-0.4%
-0.09
-0.09
0.00
-0.7%
-0.10
-0.10
0.00
3.4%
-0.12
-0.13
-0.01
9.3%
-0.15
-0.17
-0.01
7.0%
-0.18
-0.20
-0.02
9.3%
-0.21
-0.23
-0.02
8.0%
-0.24
-0.26
-0.02
8.2%
-0.28
-0.29
-0.01
2.6%
-0.32
-0.32
-0.01
2.6%
Japan
Baseline
Agenda 2000 Scenario
Change
% Change
1.40
1.40
0.00
0.0%
1.36
1.36
0.00
0.0%
1.33
1.33
0.00
-0.1%
1.32
1.32
0.00
0.0%
1.31
1.31
0.00
0.2%
1.31
1.31
0.00
0.0%
1.26
1.26
0.00
-0.2%
1.24
1.24
0.00
-0.4%
1.23
1.22
0.00
-0.3%
1.22
1.22
0.00
-0.2%
1.19
1.19
0.00
-0.1%
China
Baseline
Agenda 2000 Scenario
Change
% Change
2.00
2.00
0.00
0.0%
2.24
2.24
0.00
0.0%
2.28
2.28
0.00
0.0%
2.39
2.39
0.00
-0.1%
2.47
2.47
0.00
-0.1%
2.56
2.56
0.00
0.0%
2.68
2.68
0.01
0.2%
2.81
2.82
0.01
0.4%
2.96
2.97
0.01
0.5%
3.12
3.14
0.02
0.6%
3.29
3.31
0.02
0.5%
Rest of World
Baseline
Agenda 2000 Scenario
Change
% Change
8.94
8.94
0.00
0.0%
9.52
9.48
-0.05
-0.5%
9.71
9.71
0.00
0.0%
9.96
10.04
0.09
0.9%
10.28
10.43
0.16
1.5%
10.48
10.64
0.16
1.5%
10.65
10.96
0.30
2.8%
10.61
11.21
0.60
5.7%
10.69
11.29
0.60
5.6%
10.86
11.58
0.72
6.7%
11.17
11.96
0.79
7.1%
Trade Selected Countries
I:\BHEMPE\FAPRI\0699 Briefing Paper Ag2000.xls
Impacts of Agenda 2000 on EU Wheat
98/99
99/00
00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
04/05
05/06
06/07
07/08
08/09
Area Harvested
Baseline
Agenda 2000 Scenario
Change
% Change
16.75
16.75
0.00
0.0%
16.54
16.54
0.00
0.00%
16.56
16.57
0.00
0.01%
16.61
16.65
0.04
0.23%
(Million Hectares)
16.30
16.32
16.34
16.72
16.73
16.74
0.42
0.41
0.40
2.59%
2.54%
2.45%
15.82
16.76
0.93
5.90%
15.84
16.76
0.92
5.80%
15.95
16.77
0.82
5.15%
16.02
16.80
0.78
4.86%
Yield
Baseline
Agenda 2000 Scenario
Change
% Change
6.12
6.12
0.00
0.0%
5.72
5.72
0.00
0.00%
5.81
5.79
-0.02
-0.43%
5.88
5.83
-0.05
-0.87%
(Metric Tons per Hectare)
5.96
6.03
6.11
5.88
5.96
6.04
-0.08
-0.07
-0.07
-1.37%
-1.19%
-1.13%
6.19
6.12
-0.07
-1.15%
6.26
6.20
-0.07
-1.08%
6.35
6.28
-0.08
-1.22%
6.42
6.35
-0.08
-1.21%
Production
Baseline
Agenda 2000 Scenario
Change
% Change
102.59
102.59
0.00
0.0%
94.71
94.71
0.00
0.00%
96.27
95.87
-0.40
-0.42%
97.71
97.08
-0.63
-0.64%
(Million Metric Tons)
97.10
98.44
99.77
98.25
99.74
101.06
1.15
1.30
1.28
1.19%
1.32%
1.29%
97.93
102.52
4.59
4.69%
99.23
103.86
4.62
4.66%
101.33
105.25
3.92
3.87%
102.92
106.61
3.69
3.58%
Beginning Stocks
Baseline
Agenda 2000 Scenario
Change
% Change
12.70
12.70
0.00
0.0%
17.45
17.45
0.00
0.00%
14.73
14.73
0.00
0.00%
14.76
14.34
-0.41
-2.80%
15.85
13.75
-2.10
-13.24%
16.14
13.35
-2.79
-17.29%
17.43
13.09
-4.34
-24.92%
19.58
12.82
-6.77
-34.56%
19.70
12.76
-6.94
-35.21%
19.17
12.70
-6.47
-33.77%
18.24
12.65
-5.59
-30.65%
Domestic Supply
Baseline
Agenda 2000 Scenario
Change
% Change
115.29
115.29
0.00
0.0%
112.16
112.16
0.00
0.00%
111.00
110.60
-0.40
-0.36%
112.47
111.43
-1.04
-0.93%
112.95
112.00
-0.95
-0.84%
114.58
113.09
-1.49
-1.30%
117.21
114.14
-3.06
-2.61%
117.52
115.34
-2.18
-1.85%
118.93
116.62
-2.31
-1.95%
120.50
117.94
-2.56
-2.12%
121.16
119.26
-1.90
-1.57%
Feed Use
Baseline
Agenda 2000 Scenario
Change
% Change
37.00
37.00
0.00
0.0%
37.04
37.10
0.05
0.14%
37.23
37.31
0.08
0.22%
37.58
37.87
0.29
0.76%
37.75
37.95
0.20
0.52%
38.06
38.26
0.20
0.53%
38.46
38.62
0.16
0.41%
38.60
38.74
0.14
0.35%
38.67
38.98
0.31
0.81%
38.89
39.23
0.34
0.88%
39.13
39.41
0.28
0.71%
Food Use
Baseline
Agenda 2000 Scenario
Change
% Change
45.60
45.60
0.00
0.0%
45.67
45.67
0.00
0.00%
45.72
45.65
-0.07
-0.15%
45.75
45.64
-0.11
-0.24%
45.76
45.65
-0.11
-0.24%
45.80
45.69
-0.11
-0.23%
45.87
45.76
-0.10
-0.22%
45.92
45.82
-0.10
-0.22%
45.93
45.86
-0.07
-0.16%
45.97
45.91
-0.06
-0.12%
46.00
45.97
-0.04
-0.08%
Domestic Use
Baseline
Agenda 2000 Scenario
Change
% Change
82.60
82.60
0.00
0.0%
82.71
82.76
0.05
0.06%
82.95
82.96
0.01
0.01%
83.33
83.50
0.17
0.21%
83.51
83.60
0.09
0.10%
83.86
83.95
0.09
0.11%
84.33
84.38
0.06
0.07%
84.52
84.56
0.03
0.04%
84.60
84.84
0.24
0.28%
84.86
85.14
0.28
0.34%
85.14
85.37
0.24
0.28%
Ending Stocks
Baseline
Agenda 2000 Scenario
Change
% Change
17.45
17.45
0.00
0.0%
14.73
14.73
0.00
0.00%
14.76
14.34
-0.41
-2.80%
15.85
13.75
-2.10
-13.24%
16.14
13.35
-2.79
-17.29%
17.43
13.09
-4.34
-24.92%
19.58
12.82
-6.77
-34.56%
19.70
12.76
-6.94
-35.21%
19.17
12.70
-6.47
-33.77%
18.24
12.65
-5.59
-30.65%
15.40
12.40
-3.00
-19.48%
Net Trade
Baseline
Agenda 2000 Scenario
Change
% Change
15.24
15.24
0.00
0.0%
14.72
14.67
-0.05
-0.35%
13.29
13.29
0.00
0.00%
13.29
14.18
0.88
6.65%
13.29
15.05
1.76
13.22%
13.29
16.05
2.76
20.75%
13.29
16.95
3.65
27.48%
13.29
18.02
4.72
35.53%
15.16
19.08
3.92
25.86%
17.40
20.15
2.75
15.80%
20.62
21.48
0.86
4.17%
Wheat Domestic Price
Baseline
Agenda 2000 Scenario
Change
% Change
120.00
120.00
0.00
0.00%
121.40
121.40
0.00
0.00%
121.76
113.49
-8.27
-6.79%
121.81
107.79
-14.02
-11.51%
(Euro per Ton)
123.01
123.09
123.18
109.82
110.91
112.77
-13.19
-12.18
-10.41
-10.73%
-9.90%
-8.45%
124.46
114.01
-10.45
-8.39%
124.56
115.51
-9.05
-7.27%
125.62
116.65
-8.96
-7.14%
126.82
118.98
-7.83
-6.18%
1 of 5
EU
I:\BHEMPE\FAPRI\0699 Briefing Paper Ag2000.xls
Impacts of Agenda 2000 on EU Corn
98/99
99/00
00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
04/05
05/06
06/07
07/08
08/09
Area Harvested
Baseline
Agenda 2000 Scenario
Change
% Change
4.13
4.13
0.00
0.0%
3.92
3.92
0.00
0.00%
3.93
3.93
0.00
0.00%
3.93
3.91
-0.02
-0.45%
(Million Hectares)
3.85
3.85
3.86
3.91
3.89
3.88
0.06
0.04
0.02
1.43%
1.05%
0.61%
3.74
3.87
0.13
3.48%
3.74
3.85
0.11
3.03%
3.71
3.83
0.12
3.25%
3.68
3.80
0.12
3.21%
Yield
Baseline
Agenda 2000 Scenario
Change
% Change
8.34
8.34
0.00
0.0%
8.65
8.65
0.00
0.00%
8.77
8.69
-0.07
-0.83%
8.89
8.75
-0.14
-1.60%
(Metric Tons per Hectare)
9.01
9.13
9.25
8.84
8.93
9.02
-0.17
-0.20
-0.22
-1.88%
-2.15%
-2.41%
9.36
9.12
-0.24
-2.57%
9.47
9.21
-0.26
-2.72%
9.57
9.31
-0.26
-2.77%
9.70
9.40
-0.30
-3.11%
Production
Baseline
Agenda 2000 Scenario
Change
% Change
34.40
34.40
0.00
0.0%
33.93
33.93
0.00
0.00%
34.44
34.16
-0.28
-0.82%
34.92
34.21
-0.71
-2.04%
(Million Metric Tons)
34.70
35.18
35.66
34.53
34.78
35.01
-0.16
-0.40
-0.65
-0.47%
-1.12%
-1.82%
34.97
35.26
0.29
0.82%
35.39
35.47
0.08
0.23%
35.54
35.68
0.14
0.40%
35.75
35.75
0.00
0.00%
Beginning Stocks
Baseline
Agenda 2000 Scenario
Change
% Change
4.56
4.56
0.00
0.0%
4.80
4.80
0.00
0.00%
4.35
4.35
0.00
0.00%
4.40
4.16
-0.24
-5.55%
4.45
3.86
-0.59
-13.29%
4.43
3.84
-0.59
-13.30%
4.63
3.83
-0.80
-17.34%
4.88
3.74
-1.14
-23.37%
4.81
3.73
-1.08
-22.42%
4.85
3.67
-1.18
-24.28%
4.86
3.64
-1.23
-25.25%
Domestic Supply
Baseline
Agenda 2000 Scenario
Change
% Change
38.96
38.96
0.00
0.0%
38.73
38.73
0.00
0.00%
38.79
38.51
-0.28
-0.73%
39.32
38.37
-0.96
-2.43%
39.15
38.39
-0.75
-1.93%
39.61
38.62
-0.98
-2.49%
40.28
38.83
-1.45
-3.60%
39.85
39.00
-0.85
-2.14%
40.20
39.20
-1.00
-2.48%
40.39
39.35
-1.04
-2.57%
40.61
39.38
-1.23
-3.02%
Feed Use
Baseline
Agenda 2000 Scenario
Change
% Change
28.00
28.00
0.00
0.0%
28.36
28.40
0.04
0.14%
28.35
28.47
0.12
0.42%
28.45
28.61
0.15
0.54%
28.42
28.62
0.21
0.73%
28.50
28.75
0.26
0.91%
28.65
28.96
0.31
1.09%
28.61
28.97
0.36
1.27%
28.83
29.09
0.26
0.88%
28.94
29.13
0.19
0.67%
29.06
29.19
0.14
0.47%
Food and Other
Baseline
Agenda 2000 Scenario
Change
% Change
7.70
7.70
0.00
0.0%
7.63
7.63
0.00
0.00%
7.61
7.63
0.02
0.29%
7.59
7.61
0.02
0.21%
7.58
7.62
0.04
0.47%
7.58
7.62
0.04
0.59%
7.59
7.65
0.06
0.75%
7.58
7.65
0.07
0.91%
7.69
7.71
0.02
0.23%
7.77
7.77
0.00
-0.02%
7.86
7.84
-0.01
-0.15%
Domestic Use
Baseline
Agenda 2000 Scenario
Change
% Change
35.70
35.70
0.00
0.0%
36.00
36.04
0.04
0.11%
35.96
36.10
0.14
0.39%
36.05
36.22
0.17
0.47%
36.00
36.24
0.24
0.67%
36.08
36.38
0.30
0.84%
36.24
36.61
0.37
1.02%
36.19
36.62
0.43
1.20%
36.52
36.80
0.27
0.75%
36.71
36.90
0.19
0.53%
36.91
37.04
0.13
0.34%
Ending Stocks
Baseline
Agenda 2000 Scenario
Change
% Change
4.80
4.80
0.00
0.0%
4.35
4.35
0.00
0.00%
4.40
4.16
-0.24
-5.55%
4.45
3.86
-0.59
-13.29%
4.43
3.84
-0.59
-13.30%
4.63
3.83
-0.80
-17.34%
4.88
3.74
-1.14
-23.37%
4.81
3.73
-1.08
-22.42%
4.85
3.67
-1.18
-24.28%
4.86
3.64
-1.23
-25.25%
4.88
3.49
-1.39
-28.50%
Net Trade
Baseline
Agenda 2000 Scenario
Change
% Change
-1.54
-1.54
0.00
0.0%
-1.62
-1.66
-0.04
2.47%
-1.57
-1.75
-0.18
11.54%
-1.18
-1.71
-0.53
45.47%
-1.28
-1.69
-0.41
31.77%
-1.10
-1.58
-0.49
44.19%
-0.83
-1.51
-0.68
81.74%
-1.15
-1.35
-0.21
18.01%
-1.17
-1.27
-0.09
7.84%
-1.18
-1.18
0.00
0.08%
-1.19
-1.15
0.04
-3.27%
Corn Domestic Price
Baseline
Agenda 2000 Scenario
Change
% Change
120.30
120.30
0.00
0.00%
121.89
121.89
0.00
0.00%
121.99
112.30
-9.69
-7.94%
122.18
106.95
-15.23
-12.47%
(Euro per Ton)
122.85
122.91
122.99
107.86
108.38
109.45
-14.99
-14.53
-13.54
-12.21% -11.82% -11.01%
123.77
109.91
-13.86
-11.20%
123.86
110.47
-13.39
-10.81%
123.88
111.74
-12.14
-9.80%
124.02
113.50
-10.52
-8.48%
2 of 5
EU
I:\BHEMPE\FAPRI\0699 Briefing Paper Ag2000.xls
Impacts of Agenda 2000 on EU Barley
98/99
99/00
00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
04/05
05/06
06/07
07/08
08/09
Area Harvested
Baseline
Agenda 2000 Scenario
Change
% Change
11.36
11.36
0.00
0.0%
11.06
11.06
0.00
0.00%
11.06
11.10
0.03
0.32%
11.07
11.07
0.00
-0.01%
(Million Hectares)
10.85
10.85
10.86
11.12
11.09
11.08
0.27
0.24
0.22
2.52%
2.19%
2.07%
10.53
11.05
0.52
4.97%
10.54
11.02
0.48
4.60%
10.50
10.99
0.49
4.63%
10.49
10.96
0.47
4.51%
Yield
Baseline
Agenda 2000 Scenario
Change
% Change
4.64
4.64
0.00
0.0%
4.58
4.58
0.00
0.00%
4.63
4.63
0.00
-0.01%
4.68
4.68
0.00
-0.01%
(Metric Tons per Hectare)
4.73
4.78
4.83
4.73
4.78
4.83
0.00
0.00
0.00
-0.01%
-0.01%
-0.01%
4.88
4.88
0.00
-0.01%
4.92
4.92
0.00
-0.01%
4.97
4.97
0.00
-0.01%
5.02
5.02
0.00
-0.01%
Production
Baseline
Agenda 2000 Scenario
Change
% Change
52.73
52.73
0.00
0.0%
50.68
50.68
0.00
0.00%
51.26
51.42
0.16
0.31%
51.81
51.80
-0.01
-0.02%
(Million Metric Tons)
51.32
51.86
52.41
52.60
52.99
53.49
1.29
1.13
1.08
2.51%
2.18%
2.06%
51.34
53.89
2.55
4.96%
51.89
54.26
2.38
4.58%
52.22
54.63
2.41
4.62%
52.69
55.06
2.37
4.50%
Beginning Stocks
Baseline
Agenda 2000 Scenario
Change
% Change
13.32
13.32
0.00
0.0%
15.30
15.30
0.00
0.00%
14.58
14.58
0.00
0.00%
14.32
13.62
-0.70
-4.89%
14.35
12.46
-1.89
-13.16%
13.80
12.01
-1.79
-12.96%
13.58
11.80
-1.78
-13.14%
13.61
11.68
-1.93
-14.18%
12.57
11.64
-0.93
-7.36%
11.64
11.61
-0.03
-0.28%
10.81
11.58
0.77
7.13%
Domestic Supply
Baseline
Agenda 2000 Scenario
Change
% Change
66.05
66.05
0.00
0.0%
65.98
65.98
0.00
0.00%
65.84
66.00
0.16
0.24%
66.13
65.42
-0.71
-1.08%
65.67
65.07
-0.60
-0.92%
65.67
65.00
-0.66
-1.01%
65.99
65.29
-0.71
-1.07%
64.96
65.57
0.62
0.95%
64.45
65.91
1.45
2.26%
63.86
66.24
2.38
3.73%
63.50
66.64
3.14
4.94%
Feed Use
Baseline
Agenda 2000 Scenario
Change
% Change
31.60
31.60
0.00
0.0%
31.52
31.56
0.04
0.14%
31.51
32.30
0.79
2.50%
31.65
32.68
1.04
3.27%
31.63
32.64
1.00
3.17%
31.74
32.68
0.94
2.95%
31.93
32.87
0.94
2.94%
31.90
32.86
0.96
2.99%
32.06
32.96
0.90
2.79%
32.17
32.99
0.82
2.56%
32.28
33.09
0.81
2.50%
Food and Other
Baseline
Agenda 2000 Scenario
Change
% Change
11.13
11.13
0.00
0.0%
11.30
11.30
0.00
0.00%
11.35
11.43
0.07
0.65%
11.41
11.51
0.10
0.92%
11.46
11.56
0.10
0.85%
11.52
11.61
0.09
0.75%
11.58
11.66
0.08
0.69%
11.64
11.72
0.08
0.66%
11.70
11.77
0.07
0.62%
11.75
11.82
0.07
0.56%
11.81
11.87
0.06
0.53%
Domestic Use
Baseline
Agenda 2000 Scenario
Change
% Change
42.73
42.73
0.00
0.0%
42.82
42.86
0.04
0.10%
42.87
43.73
0.86
2.01%
43.06
44.20
1.14
2.65%
43.10
44.20
1.10
2.56%
43.27
44.29
1.02
2.37%
43.52
44.53
1.02
2.34%
43.54
44.58
1.03
2.37%
43.76
44.73
0.97
2.21%
43.92
44.81
0.89
2.03%
44.09
44.96
0.87
1.98%
Ending Stocks
Baseline
Agenda 2000 Scenario
Change
% Change
15.30
15.30
0.00
0.0%
14.58
14.58
0.00
0.00%
14.32
13.62
-0.70
-4.89%
14.35
12.46
-1.89
-13.16%
13.80
12.01
-1.79
-12.96%
13.58
11.80
-1.78
-13.14%
13.61
11.68
-1.93
-14.18%
12.57
11.64
-0.93
-7.36%
11.64
11.61
-0.03
-0.28%
10.81
11.58
0.77
7.13%
10.05
11.56
1.51
15.01%
Net Trade
Baseline
Agenda 2000 Scenario
Change
% Change
8.02
8.02
0.00
0.0%
8.59
8.54
-0.04
-0.51%
8.65
8.64
0.00
-0.03%
8.72
8.76
0.04
0.44%
8.77
8.86
0.08
0.97%
8.82
8.92
0.10
1.13%
8.87
9.07
0.21
2.32%
8.85
9.35
0.51
5.76%
9.05
9.57
0.52
5.72%
9.12
9.84
0.72
7.88%
9.36
10.12
0.76
8.12%
Barley Domestic Price
Baseline
Agenda 2000 Scenario
Change
% Change
114.00
114.00
0.00
0.00%
118.04
118.00
-0.04
-0.03%
118.30
110.69
-7.61
-6.43%
118.32
106.86
-11.46
-9.68%
(Euro per Ton)
118.94
119.03
119.13
107.53
108.58
109.21
-11.41
-10.45
-9.92
-9.59%
-8.78%
-8.32%
119.91
109.45
-10.46
-8.73%
120.02
109.72
-10.30
-8.58%
120.06
110.41
-9.65
-8.04%
120.16
110.63
-9.53
-7.93%
3 of 5
EU
I:\BHEMPE\FAPRI\0699 Briefing Paper Ag2000.xls
Impacts of Agenda 2000 on EU Soybean
98/99
99/00
00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
04/05
05/06
06/07
07/08
08/09
Area Harvested
Baseline
Agenda 2000 Scenario
Change
% Change
533
533
0.00
0.00%
517
517
0.00
0.00%
516
516
0.33
0.06%
517
517
0.64
0.12%
(Thousand Hectares)
518
520
524
519
519
522
0.29
-0.86
-1.56
0.06%
-0.16%
-0.30%
528
525
-2.45
-0.46%
534
530
-3.96
-0.74%
539
535
-3.65
-0.68%
548
544
-4.26
-0.78%
Yield
Baseline
Agenda 2000 Scenario
Change
% Change
3.26
3.26
0.00
0.00%
3.40
3.40
0.00
0.00%
3.41
3.41
0.00
0.01%
3.42
3.42
0.00
0.01%
(Metric Tons per Hectare)
3.43
3.44
3.45
3.43
3.44
3.45
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00%
-0.02%
-0.02%
3.46
3.46
0.00
-0.02%
3.47
3.47
0.00
-0.03%
3.47
3.47
0.00
0.00%
3.48
3.48
0.00
-0.01%
Production
Baseline
Agenda 2000 Scenario
Change
% Change
1,738
1,738
0.00
0.00%
1,760
1,759
-0.18
-0.01%
1,760
1,761
1.21
0.07%
1,769
1,772
2.32
0.13%
(Thousand Metric Tons)
1,779
1,788
1,808
1,780
1,785
1,802
0.95
-3.27
-5.66
0.05%
-0.18%
-0.31%
1,825
1,816
-8.80
-0.48%
1,851
1,837
-14.22
-0.77%
1,873
1,860
-12.74
-0.68%
1,908
1,893
-14.98
-0.78%
Beginning Stocks
Baseline
Agenda 2000 Scenario
Change
% Change
820
820
0.00
0.00%
884
884
0.00
0.00%
940
940
0.21
0.02%
924
923
-1.39
-0.15%
905
903
-2.05
-0.23%
893
893
0.00
0.00%
887
892
4.14
0.47%
873
878
4.95
0.57%
866
872
6.25
0.72%
853
862
9.13
1.07%
848
853
5.02
0.59%
Domestic Supply
Baseline
Agenda 2000 Scenario
Change
% Change
2,558
2,558
0.00
0.00%
2,644
2,643
-0.18
-0.01%
2,700
2,701
1.42
0.05%
2,693
2,694
0.93
0.03%
2,685
2,684
-1.10
-0.04%
2,682
2,678
-3.27
-0.12%
2,695
2,694
-1.53
-0.06%
2,698
2,695
-3.85
-0.14%
2,717
2,709
-7.97
-0.29%
2,726
2,722
-3.62
-0.13%
2,756
2,746
-9.96
-0.36%
Crush
Baseline
Agenda 2000 Scenario
Change
% Change
15,700
15,700
0.00
0.00%
16,291
16,293
1.09
0.01%
16,469
16,471
1.62
0.01%
16,514
16,515
1.31
0.01%
16,615
16,612
-2.83
-0.02%
16,713
16,725
11.61
0.07%
16,813
16,825
11.93
0.07%
16,966
16,982
16.12
0.10%
17,102
17,137
35.54
0.21%
17,287
17,310
23.55
0.14%
17,476
17,494
18.57
0.11%
Other Use
Baseline
Agenda 2000 Scenario
Change
% Change
1,252
1,252
0.00
0.00%
1,291
1,291
0.00
0.00%
1,288
1,288
-0.22
-0.02%
1,285
1,284
-0.35
-0.03%
1,282
1,282
0.00
0.00%
1,280
1,280
0.77
0.06%
1,276
1,277
0.96
0.08%
1,274
1,275
1.26
0.10%
1,271
1,272
1.91
0.15%
1,269
1,270
1.09
0.09%
1,265
1,266
1.25
0.10%
Ending Stocks
Baseline
Agenda 2000 Scenario
Change
% Change
884
884
0.00
0.00%
940
940
0.00
0.00%
924
923
-1.39
-0.15%
905
903
-2.05
-0.23%
893
893
0.00
0.00%
887
892
4.14
0.47%
873
878
4.95
0.57%
866
872
6.25
0.72%
853
862
9.13
1.07%
848
853
5.02
0.59%
832
837
5.50
0.66%
Domestic Use
Baseline
Agenda 2000 Scenario
Change
% Change
18,058
17,836
-222.13
-1.23%
18,130
18,524
393.23
2.17%
18,305
18,682
376.75
2.06%
18,363
18,703
340.20
1.85%
18,438
18,787
348.85
1.89%
18,503
18,897
394.24
2.13%
18,556
18,980
423.89
2.28%
18,630
19,129
499.09
2.68%
18,647
19,272
624.68
3.35%
18,647
19,433
786.20
4.22%
18,647
19,598
950.70
5.10%
Net Trade
Baseline
Agenda 2000 Scenario
Change
% Change
15,278
15,278
0.00
0.00%
15,879
15,880
1.51
0.01%
15,982
15,980
-1.41
-0.01%
16,011
16,009
-2.02
-0.01%
16,105
16,103
-1.74
-0.01%
16,199
16,219
19.79
0.12%
16,267
16,287
19.36
0.12%
16,407
16,435
27.48
0.17%
16,508
16,562
54.54
0.33%
16,678
16,711
33.28
0.20%
16,816
16,851
35.28
0.21%
4 of 5
EU
I:\BHEMPE\FAPRI\0699 Briefing Paper Ag2000.xls
Impacts of Agenda 2000 on EU Rapeseed
98/99
99/00
00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
04/05
05/06
06/07
07/08
08/09
Area Harvested
Baseline
Agenda 2000 Scenario
Change
% Change
3,113
3,113
0.00
0.00%
3,229
3,204
-25.01
-0.77%
3,134
3,082
-51.57
-1.65%
3,113
3,050
-62.57
-2.01%
(Thousand Hectares)
3,151
3,047
2,993
3,012
2,962
2,923
-138.47
-85.33
-69.94
-4.39%
-2.80%
-2.34%
3,025
2,880
-144.16
-4.77%
2,997
2,866
-130.99
-4.37%
2,967
2,855
-111.96
-3.77%
2,982
2,877
-104.91
-3.52%
Yield
Baseline
Agenda 2000 Scenario
Change
% Change
3.05
3.05
0.00
0.00%
3.06
3.06
0.00
-0.01%
3.08
3.08
0.01
0.19%
3.10
3.12
0.01
0.38%
(Metric Tons per Hectare)
3.12
3.14
3.16
3.14
3.15
3.18
0.01
0.02
0.02
0.48%
0.49%
0.59%
3.17
3.20
0.02
0.70%
3.19
3.22
0.02
0.73%
3.21
3.24
0.03
1.02%
3.23
3.27
0.04
1.16%
Production
Baseline
Agenda 2000 Scenario
Change
% Change
9,492
9,492
0.00
0.00%
9,877
9,800
-77.09
-0.78%
9,648
9,506
-141.07
-1.46%
9,662
9,503
-158.30
-1.64%
(Thousand Metric Tons)
9,843
9,559
9,453
9,456
9,337
9,287
-387.61
-222.03
-165.96
-3.94%
-2.32%
-1.76%
9,598
9,204
-393.65
-4.10%
9,573
9,222
-351.43
-3.67%
9,516
9,250
-266.06
-2.80%
9,640
9,408
-231.28
-2.40%
Beginning Stocks
Baseline
Agenda 2000 Scenario
Change
% Change
114
114
0.00
0.00%
112
112
0.00
0.00%
132
132
0.05
0.04%
130
129
-1.44
-1.11%
120
117
-2.64
-2.20%
112
109
-3.15
-2.82%
105
102
-3.17
-3.02%
96
92
-3.88
-4.05%
88
84
-4.54
-5.14%
79
75
-4.63
-5.84%
72
66
-6.68
-9.23%
Domestic Supply
Baseline
Agenda 2000 Scenario
Change
% Change
9,606
9,606
0.00
0.00%
9,989
9,912
-77.09
-0.77%
9,780
9,639
-141.02
-1.44%
9,792
9,632
-159.74
-1.63%
9,963
9,573
-390.25
-3.92%
9,670
9,445
-225.18
-2.33%
9,558
9,388
-169.13
-1.77%
9,693
9,296
-397.53
-4.10%
9,661
9,305
-355.96
-3.68%
9,595
9,325
-270.68
-2.82%
9,712
9,474
-237.96
-2.45%
Crush
Baseline
Agenda 2000 Scenario
Change
% Change
8,646
8,646
0.00
0.00%
8,991
8,926
-64.98
-0.72%
8,847
8,723
-124.45
-1.41%
8,887
8,744
-143.31
-1.61%
8,995
8,658
-337.32
-3.75%
8,869
8,669
-199.67
-2.25%
8,828
8,674
-153.96
-1.74%
9,001
8,653
-347.47
-3.86%
9,039
8,725
-314.61
-3.48%
9,062
8,815
-247.25
-2.73%
9,234
9,015
-219.46
-2.38%
Other Use
Baseline
Agenda 2000 Scenario
Change
% Change
736
736
0.00
0.00%
788
788
0.00
0.00%
801
801
-0.04
-0.01%
816
816
-0.09
-0.01%
834
834
-0.13
-0.02%
854
854
-0.15
-0.02%
877
877
-0.22
-0.02%
904
904
-0.30
-0.03%
934
934
-0.36
-0.04%
968
968
-0.60
-0.06%
1,007
1,006
-0.77
-0.08%
Ending Stocks
Baseline
Agenda 2000 Scenario
Change
% Change
112
112
0.00
0.00%
132
132
0.05
0.04%
130
129
-1.44
-1.11%
120
117
-2.64
-2.20%
112
109
-3.15
-2.82%
105
102
-3.17
-3.02%
96
92
-3.88
-4.05%
88
84
-4.54
-5.14%
79
75
-4.63
-5.84%
72
66
-6.68
-9.23%
62
55
-7.24
-11.63%
Domestic Use
Baseline
Agenda 2000 Scenario
Change
% Change
9,494
9,494
0.00
0.00%
9,911
9,846
-64.93
-0.66%
9,778
9,652
-125.93
-1.29%
9,824
9,678
-146.05
-1.49%
9,941
9,600
-340.59
-3.43%
9,828
9,625
-202.99
-2.07%
9,801
9,643
-158.06
-1.61%
9,993
9,641
-352.30
-3.53%
10,052
9,733
-319.60
-3.18%
10,103
9,848
-254.53
-2.52%
10,303
10,076
-227.48
-2.21%
Net Trade
Baseline
Agenda 2000 Scenario
Change
% Change
112
112
0.00
0.00%
77
65
-12.17
-15.74%
1
-14
-15.09
-1068%
-32
-46
-13.70
42.33%
23
-27
-49.65
-220%
-158
-180
-22.19
14.07%
-243
-254
-11.07
4.55%
-300
-345
-45.22
15.08%
-391
-427
-36.37
9.30%
-507
-524
-16.15
3.18%
-591
-602
-10.48
1.77%
5 of 5
EU
I:\BHEMPE\FAPRI\0699 Briefing Paper Ag2000.xls
Impacts of Agenda 2000 on World Beef Trade
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
Net Exporters
Argentina
Baseline
Scenario
Change
% Change
310
310
0
0.00%
353
355
2
0.51%
392
395
2
0.61%
Australia
Baseline
Scenario
Change
% Change
1,188
1,188
0
0.00%
1,172
1,178
5
0.44%
1,156
1,161
5
0.45%
1,148
1,147
-1
-0.06%
1,137
1,137
-1
-0.06%
Canada
Baseline
Scenario
Change
% Change
126
126
0
0.00%
123
129
7
5.29%
147
152
5
3.59%
178
174
-4
-2.16%
New Zealand
Baseline
Scenario
Change
% Change
508
507
0
0.00%
507
508
1
0.22%
508
509
0
0.09%
United States
Baseline
Scenario
Change
% Change
-249
-249
0
0.00%
-194
-110
84
-43.46%
Net Importers
Former Soviet Union
Baseline
Scenario
Change
% Change
418
418
0
0.00%
416
413
-4
-0.91%
470
466
-4
-0.82%
Japan
Baseline
Scenario
Change
% Change
928
928
0
0.00%
904
893
-12
-1.30%
Mexico
Baseline
Scenario
Change
% Change
235
235
0
0.00%
Rest of World
Baseline
Scenario
Change
% Change
784
784
0
0.00%
1 of 3
2004
2005
(Thousand Metric Tons)
428
452
461
430
453
465
2
1
4
0.41%
0.17%
0.91%
2006
2007
2008
447
452
5
1.13%
439
443
4
0.95%
435
434
-1
-0.18%
440
432
-8
-1.79%
1,133
1,135
2
0.13%
1,135
1,138
3
0.28%
1,139
1,141
2
0.22%
1,145
1,144
-1
-0.11%
1,149
1,144
-5
-0.40%
204
201
-3
-1.33%
215
216
1
0.36%
222
225
3
1.55%
231
235
4
1.70%
247
247
0
0.01%
254
249
-5
-1.92%
514
513
-1
-0.20%
521
520
-1
-0.12%
530
529
0
-0.07%
539
538
0
-0.04%
548
548
0
-0.06%
559
558
-1
-0.19%
569
568
-1
-0.23%
-124
-37
-45
-75
79
-38
-63.40% 100.87%
103
66
-37
-35.70%
245
250
5
1.92%
426
459
33
7.78%
578
622
43
7.47%
600
605
6
0.94%
543
501
-42
-7.74%
522
524
2
0.35%
580
583
3
0.52%
627
629
2
0.33%
668
668
0
0.00%
710
709
-1
-0.17%
740
741
1
0.14%
758
761
3
0.45%
901
890
-12
-1.28%
907
911
4
0.40%
954
962
8
0.84%
1,019
1,026
8
0.75%
1,088
1,092
4
0.37%
1,149
1,148
-1
-0.08%
1,172
1,175
2
0.18%
1,188
1,198
9
0.79%
262
257
-5
-1.91%
276
272
-4
-1.55%
287
291
3
1.20%
300
304
4
1.32%
308
310
1
0.43%
314
313
-1
-0.47%
320
317
-3
-0.92%
319
319
0
-0.02%
325
329
4
1.27%
758
738
-20
-2.60%
735
713
-21
-2.91%
721
727
6
0.82%
707
722
14
2.03%
699
712
13
1.85%
704
710
7
0.97%
722
723
0
0.05%
718
722
4
0.59%
673
687
14
2.07%
Livestock
I:\BHEMPE\FAPRI\0699 Briefing Paper Ag2000.xls
Impacts of Agenda 2000 on EU Beef
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Ending Beef Cow Inventory
Baseline
Scenario
Change
% Change
11,887
11,887
0
0.00%
11,813
11,813
0
0.00%
11,787
11,764
-23
-0.19%
11,732
11,689
-44
-0.37%
(Thousand Head)
11,678
11,622
11,634
11,598
-44
-24
-0.38%
-0.21%
11,564
11,543
-21
-0.18%
11,505
11,446
-59
-0.51%
11,441
11,332
-109
-0.95%
11,373
11,231
-142
-1.25%
Ending Cow Inventory
Baseline
Scenario
Change
% Change
32,956
32,956
0
0.00%
32,609
32,684
75
0.23%
32,316
32,420
104
0.32%
32,000
32,089
88
0.28%
31,689
31,773
84
0.26%
31,383
31,484
100
0.32%
31,082
31,256
174
0.56%
30,790
30,979
189
0.62%
30,491
30,688
197
0.65%
30,199
30,342
143
0.48%
Total Slaughter
Baseline
Scenario
Change
% Change
27,385
27,385
0
0.00%
27,739
27,658
-81
-0.29%
27,508
27,440
-68
-0.25%
28,149
28,080
-69
-0.24%
27,914
27,832
-82
-0.30%
27,680
27,625
-55
-0.20%
27,438
27,425
-13
-0.05%
27,208
27,212
3
0.01%
26,977
27,036
60
0.22%
26,751
26,828
77
0.29%
Average Slaughter Weight
Baseline
Scenario
Change
% Change
273
273
0.0
0.00%
271
271
-0.7
-0.27%
273
272
-0.7
-0.27%
(Kilograms per Head Carcass Weight)
276
278
279
281
276
277
278
279
-0.5
-0.7
-1.0
-1.2
-0.17%
-0.24%
-0.34%
-0.44%
282
281
-1.4
-0.49%
283
282
-1.1
-0.39%
285
284
-0.6
-0.22%
Beef Production
Baseline
Scenario
Change
% Change
7,470
7,470
0
0.00%
7,528
7,486
-42
-0.56%
7,514
7,475
-39
-0.52%
(Thousand Metric Tons)
7,777
7,754
7,730
7,745
7,712
7,688
-32
-42
-42
-0.42%
-0.54%
-0.54%
7,701
7,663
-37
-0.49%
7,674
7,637
-37
-0.48%
7,646
7,633
-13
-0.17%
7,619
7,625
5
0.07%
Beef Consumption
Baseline
Scenario
Change
% Change
7,273
7,273
0
0.00%
7,244
7,357
114
1.57%
7,215
7,334
119
1.65%
7,181
7,281
100
1.39%
7,146
7,288
142
1.99%
7,118
7,299
181
2.54%
7,100
7,322
223
3.14%
7,080
7,326
246
3.48%
7,062
7,271
208
2.95%
7,046
7,190
145
2.06%
Beef Net Exports
Baseline
Scenario
Change
% Change
446
446
0
0.00%
426
273
-153
-35.91%
427
279
-148
-34.68%
429
488
59
13.74%
428
504
76
17.79%
427
446
19
4.34%
426
392
-34
-7.91%
425
365
-60
-14.15%
426
432
6
1.35%
428
526
98
22.79%
Beef Ending Stocks
Baseline
Scenario
Change
% Change
323
323
0
0.00%
243
241
-2
-0.94%
177
167
-11
-6.09%
409
208
-201
-49.18%
653
193
-460
-70.43%
903
202
-700
-77.61%
1,142
217
-925
-81.04%
1,375
229
-1146
-83.38%
1,597
225
-1372
-85.92%
1,809
200
-1609
-88.93%
Beef Producer Price †
Baseline
Scenario
Change
% Change
236
236
0.00
0.00%
235
220
-15.17
-6.44%
236
218
-17.48
-7.42%
(Euro per 100 Kilograms Carcass Weight)
235
235
235
234
219
214
210
204
-16.10
-21.29
-25.82
-30.25
-6.85%
-9.05% -10.97% -12.91%
233
201
-32.71
-14.02%
233
204
-28.25
-12.14%
232
212
-20.51
-8.83%
† Producer prices are projections of the MLC reference price.
2 of 3
Livestock
I:\BHEMPE\FAPRI\0699 Briefing Paper Ag2000.xls
Impacts of Agenda 2000 on EU Livestock and Poultry
1999
2000
2001
2002
Pork Production
Baseline
Scenario
Change
% Change
17,138
17,138
0
0.00%
17,185
17,183
-3
-0.01%
17,246
17,289
43
0.25%
Pork Consumption
Baseline
Scenario
Change
% Change
16,058
16,059
0
0.00%
16,105
16,096
-8
-0.05%
Broiler Production
Baseline
Scenario
Change
% Change
6,458
6,458
0
0.00%
Broiler Consumption
Baseline
Scenario
Change
% Change
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
(Thousand Metric Tons)
17,330
17,410
17,531
17,401
17,480
17,600
72
70
70
0.41%
0.40%
0.40%
17,632
17,692
61
0.34%
17,710
17,765
55
0.31%
17,786
17,841
55
0.31%
17,881
17,937
56
0.31%
16,165
16,198
33
0.20%
16,262
16,325
63
0.39%
16,394
16,455
61
0.37%
16,485
16,542
58
0.35%
16,571
16,619
48
0.29%
16,671
16,712
41
0.25%
16,774
16,819
45
0.27%
16,859
16,908
49
0.29%
6,556
6,553
-4
-0.06%
6,636
6,674
38
0.58%
6,700
6,767
67
1.00%
6,763
6,821
58
0.85%
6,834
6,879
45
0.66%
6,902
6,934
32
0.47%
6,966
6,994
27
0.39%
7,034
7,067
34
0.48%
7,109
7,149
40
0.56%
5,927
5,927
0
0.00%
6,056
6,047
-10
-0.16%
6,145
6,168
23
0.38%
6,220
6,270
49
0.79%
6,292
6,333
41
0.65%
6,373
6,403
29
0.46%
6,452
6,468
17
0.26%
6,527
6,540
13
0.19%
6,603
6,624
21
0.31%
6,683
6,712
29
0.43%
Sheepmeat Production
Baseline
Scenario
Change
% Change
1,104
1,104
0
0.00%
1,091
1,090
-1
-0.13%
1,083
1,079
-5
-0.43%
1,075
1,068
-7
-0.66%
1,065
1,057
-9
-0.82%
1,054
1,043
-10
-0.98%
1,040
1,029
-12
-1.13%
1,026
1,013
-13
-1.26%
1,010
997
-13
-1.30%
994
982
-12
-1.20%
Sheepmeat Consumption
Baseline
Scenario
Change
% Change
1,311
1,310
0
0.00%
1,307
1,304
-3
-0.22%
1,308
1,301
-6
-0.49%
1,313
1,304
-9
-0.67%
1,320
1,309
-11
-0.83%
1,327
1,314
-13
-0.97%
1,336
1,321
-15
-1.10%
1,344
1,328
-16
-1.19%
1,351
1,335
-16
-1.17%
1,362
1,348
-14
-1.02%
Pork Producer Price †
Baseline
Scenario
Change
% Change
118
118
0.00
0.00%
123
121
-1.43
-1.17%
127
123
-3.84
-3.02%
(Euro per 100 Kilograms)
130
131
134
137
125
125
128
131
-5.19
-5.68
-6.13
-6.29
-4.00%
-4.34%
-4.57%
-4.59%
139
133
-6.40
-4.60%
141
135
-6.03
-4.26%
145
139
-5.23
-3.62%
Poultry Producer Price †
Baseline
Scenario
Change
% Change
115
115
0.00
0.00%
115
114
-1.38
-1.20%
118
114
-4.07
-3.45%
121
115
-5.71
-4.73%
124
118
-5.94
-4.80%
126
120
-5.91
-4.68%
129
123
-5.82
-4.51%
132
126
-6.00
-4.54%
135
129
-5.88
-4.36%
138
133
-5.27
-3.82%
Sheep Producer Price †
Baseline
Scenario
Change
% Change
320
320
0.00
0.00%
328
324
-4.31
-1.31%
335
329
-5.22
-1.56%
336
332
-4.53
-1.35%
337
331
-5.08
-1.51%
339
333
-5.50
-1.62%
338
332
-5.84
-1.73%
338
332
-5.90
-1.75%
339
335
-4.17
-1.23%
338
336
-1.95
-0.58%
† Producer prices are projections of the MLC reference price.
3 of 3
Livestock
I:\BHEMPE\FAPRI\0699 Briefing Paper Ag2000.xls
Impacts of Agenda 2000 on EU Milk
1999
1 of 6
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Milk Production
Baseline
Agenda 2000
Change
% Change
120,530
120,530
0
0.00%
120,449
121,093
644
0.53%
120,405
121,514
1,109
0.92%
120,376
121,471
1,095
0.91%
(Thousand MT)
120,360 120,350
121,405 121,361
1,044
1,011
0.87%
0.84%
120,337
121,723
1,386
1.15%
120,309
122,014
1,706
1.42%
120,282
122,300
2,018
1.68%
120,259
122,177
1,918
1.59%
Prod. per Cow
Baseline
Agenda 2000
Change
% Change
5,721
5,721
0.00
0.00%
5,792
5,802
9.97
0.17%
5,865
5,883
17.71
0.30%
5,939
5,954
15.19
0.26%
(Kilograms)
6,015
6,090
6,028
6,103
13.69
12.76
0.23%
0.21%
6,165
6,175
9.33
0.15%
6,238
6,247
8.12
0.13%
6,314
6,318
4.38
0.07%
6,388
6,393
4.83
0.08%
Milk Cows
Baseline
Agenda 2000
Change
% Change
21,069
21,069
0.00
0.00%
20,796
20,871
75.22
0.36%
20,529
20,656
126.74
0.62%
20,268
20,400
132.12
0.65%
(Thousands)
20,011
19,762
20,139
19,886
127.76
124.40
0.64%
0.63%
19,518
19,713
194.89
1.00%
19,285
19,533
247.96
1.29%
19,050
19,356
306.19
1.61%
18,825
19,111
285.74
1.52%
Fluid Milk Cons.
Baseline
Agenda 2000
Change
% Change
32,441
32,441
0.00
0.00%
32,367
32,416
48.92
0.15%
32,271
32,377
105.63
0.33%
32,150
32,284
134.06
0.42%
(Thousand MT)
32,026
31,895
32,174
32,040
148.87
145.17
0.46%
0.46%
31,763
32,046
282.87
0.89%
31,626
32,021
395.57
1.25%
31,485
32,015
530.25
1.68%
31,347
31,850
502.77
1.60%
EU Milk Price
Baseline
Agenda 2000
Change
% Change
29
29
0.00
0.00%
29
29
-0.24
-0.82%
29
29
-0.52
-1.79%
30
29
-0.67
-2.29%
(Euro/100 kg)
30
30
29
29
-0.76
-0.76
-2.56%
-2.52%
30
29
-1.51
-4.96%
31
29
-2.15
-7.00%
31
28
-2.94
-9.48%
31
29
-2.85
-9.08%
Dairy
Impacts of Agenda 2000 on EU Butter and Cheese
1999
2 of 6
2000
2001
2002
Butter Production
Baseline
Agenda 2000
Change
% Change
1,750
1,750
0.00
0.00%
1,758
1,775
16.93
0.96%
1,757
1,784
26.46
1.51%
1,756
1,779
22.80
1.30%
Butter Consumption
Baseline
Agenda 2000
Change
% Change
1,649
1,649
0.00
0.00%
1,641
1,641
-0.04
0.00%
1,639
1,639
-0.29
-0.02%
Butter Stocks
Baseline
Agenda 2000
Change
% Change
228
228
0.00
0.00%
231
240
9.22
3.99%
Butter Exports
Baseline
Agenda 2000
Change
% Change
160
160
0.00
0.00%
EU Butter Price
Baseline
Agenda 2000
Change
% Change
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
(Thousand MT)
1,755
1,754
1,774
1,773
19.29
19.01
1.10%
1.08%
1,752
1,764
11.94
0.68%
1,750
1,758
7.99
0.46%
1,748
1,746
-1.46
-0.08%
1,745
1,747
1.76
0.10%
1,638
1,637
-1.11
-0.07%
1,635
1,633
-2.26
-0.14%
1,633
1,631
-2.11
-0.13%
1,629
1,647
18.05
1.11%
1,626
1,656
30.14
1.85%
1,622
1,667
44.95
2.77%
1,618
1,658
39.88
2.46%
228
248
19.78
8.67%
221
245
23.90
10.80%
213
238
24.74
11.62%
204
229
24.87
12.20%
195
201
6.61
3.40%
186
171
-14.48
-7.80%
177
135
-41.74
-23.57%
169
118
-51.30
-30.37%
194
201
7.75
4.00%
200
216
16.19
8.10%
204
224
19.79
9.70%
207
228
20.72
10.02%
209
230
20.99
10.05%
211
223
12.14
5.75%
212
211
-1.06
-0.50%
213
194
-19.15
-8.98%
214
186
-28.56
-13.34%
353
353
0.00
0.00%
356
354
-1.73
-0.49%
357
353
-3.73
-1.05%
358
353
-4.53
-1.26%
(Euro/100 kg)
360
362
355
357
-4.71
-4.73
-1.31%
-1.31%
364
345
-18.54
-5.10%
366
337
-28.29
-7.74%
367
327
-40.22
-10.95%
369
331
-37.65
-10.20%
Cheese Production
Baseline
Agenda 2000
Change
% Change
6,010
6,010
0.00
0.00%
6,050
6,076
26.54
0.44%
6,103
6,153
50.60
0.83%
6,153
6,210
57.06
0.93%
(Thousand MT)
6,206
6,259
6,266
6,317
60.56
57.71
0.98%
0.92%
6,313
6,424
110.81
1.76%
6,367
6,516
148.45
2.33%
6,423
6,619
196.50
3.06%
6,478
6,654
175.34
2.71%
Cheese Consumption
Baseline
Agenda 2000
Change
% Change
5,681
5,681
0.00
0.00%
5,745
5,763
18.31
0.32%
5,800
5,838
38.45
0.66%
5,850
5,897
47.56
0.81%
5,901
5,953
52.17
0.88%
5,951
6,003
51.03
0.86%
6,004
6,091
87.08
1.45%
6,056
6,176
120.24
1.99%
6,109
6,268
159.58
2.61%
6,163
6,317
154.50
2.51%
Cheese Stocks
Baseline
Agenda 2000
Change
% Change
1,332
1,332
0.00
0.00%
1,334
1,339
5.76
0.43%
1,333
1,345
12.10
0.91%
1,331
1,346
14.91
1.12%
1,329
1,346
16.30
1.23%
1,328
1,343
15.92
1.20%
1,326
1,353
27.14
2.05%
1,324
1,361
37.45
2.83%
1,322
1,372
49.69
3.76%
1,320
1,368
47.99
3.64%
Cheese Exports
Baseline
Agenda 2000
Change
% Change
427
427
0.00
0.00%
419
421
2.47
0.59%
419
424
5.80
1.39%
420
427
6.69
1.59%
422
429
7.00
1.66%
425
432
7.06
1.66%
426
439
12.51
2.93%
428
446
17.90
4.18%
431
456
24.68
5.73%
433
455
22.55
5.21%
EU Cheese Price
Baseline
Agenda 2000
Change
% Change
469
469
0.00
0.00%
470
466
-3.93
-0.84%
474
465
-8.40
-1.77%
478
468
-10.57
-2.21%
(Euro/100 kg)
483
489
471
477
-11.82
-11.78
-2.45%
-2.41%
494
473
-20.51
-4.15%
499
470
-28.89
-5.79%
504
465
-39.12
-7.76%
510
471
-38.65
-7.58%
Dairy
Impacts of Agenda 2000 on EU Milk Powder
1999
3 of 6
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
992
965
-26.97
-2.72%
974
915
-59.15
-6.07%
956
908
-47.90
-5.01%
SMP Production
Baseline
Agenda 2000
Change
% Change
1,086
1,086
0.00
0.00%
1,088
1,114
25.84
2.37%
1,073
1,111
37.62
3.51%
(Thousand Metric Tons)
1,057
1,041
1,026
1,009
1,086
1,062
1,046
1,001
28.33
20.37
20.50
-8.17
2.68%
1.96%
2.00%
-0.81%
SMP Consumption
Baseline
Agenda 2000
Change
% Change
894
894
0.00
0.00%
888
890
2.11
0.24%
880
886
6.15
0.70%
871
881
9.82
1.13%
862
874
12.39
1.44%
845
857
11.86
1.40%
829
846
17.35
2.09%
813
836
23.00
2.83%
797
828
30.79
3.86%
781
810
28.80
3.69%
SMP Stocks
Baseline
Agenda 2000
Change
% Change
209
209
0.00
0.00%
216
234
17.78
8.23%
215
264
49.26
22.90%
208
276
67.77
32.61%
199
270
70.19
35.21%
195
265
69.45
35.55%
193
225
32.22
16.67%
191
177
-14.41
-7.53%
189
129
-59.96
-31.77%
186
111
-75.07
-40.39%
SMP Exports
Baseline
Agenda 2000
Change
% Change
265
265
0.00
0.00%
273
279
5.94
2.18%
273
273
0.00
0.00%
273
273
0.00
0.00%
267
273
5.56
2.08%
264
273
9.40
3.56%
261
273
11.71
4.48%
260
256
-3.34
-1.29%
258
214
-44.38
-17.18%
256
195
-61.59
-24.02%
EU SMP Price
Baseline
Agenda 2000
Change
% Change
206
206
0.00
0.00%
207
206
-1.47
-0.71%
209
205
-4.33
-2.07%
211
204
-6.89
-3.26%
(Euro/100 kg)
214
216
205
208
-8.72
-8.52
-4.08%
-3.94%
219
205
-13.81
-6.31%
221
202
-18.97
-8.58%
224
198
-25.81
-11.54%
226
201
-24.79
-10.96%
WMP Production
Baseline
Agenda 2000
Change
% Change
1,032
1,032
0.00
0.00%
1,002
1,003
1.54
0.15%
991
996
4.76
0.48%
(Thousand Metric Tons)
991
990
988
996
995
993
5.55
5.41
4.85
0.56%
0.55%
0.49%
987
997
10.06
1.02%
985
1,002
16.66
1.69%
983
1,011
27.25
2.77%
981
1,009
27.16
2.77%
WMP Exports
Baseline
Agenda 2000
Change
% Change
485
485
0.00
0.00%
452
453
1.19
0.26%
440
444
4.06
0.92%
438
443
4.69
1.07%
434
438
3.91
0.90%
431
440
8.41
1.95%
429
443
14.43
3.36%
427
451
24.37
5.71%
424
449
24.45
5.76%
EU WMP Price
Baseline
Agenda 2000
Change
% Change
258
258
0.00
0.00%
254
251
-2.69
-1.06%
255
249
-5.48
-2.15%
258
251
-6.88
-2.67%
(Euro/100 kg)
260
263
253
256
-7.77
-7.72
-2.98%
-2.93%
266
252
-13.93
-5.24%
269
250
-19.14
-7.12%
272
246
-25.32
-9.32%
274
250
-24.31
-8.86%
Dairy
436
440
4.46
1.02%
Impacts of Agenda 2000 on World Cheese Markets
1999
4 of 6
2000
2001
2002
2003
EU Net Exports
Baseline
Agenda 2000
Change
% Change
316
316
0.00
0.00%
304
306
2.47
0.81%
304
309
5.80
1.91%
New Zealand Net Exports
Baseline
Agenda 2000
Change
% Change
216
216
0.00
0.00%
237
237
0.18
0.08%
244
244
-0.40
-0.17%
252
252
-0.35
-0.14%
260
260
0.21
0.08%
Australia Net Exports
Baseline
Agenda 2000
Change
% Change
121
121
0.00
0.00%
130
131
0.59
0.45%
137
138
0.51
0.38%
140
141
0.48
0.34%
Argentina Net Exports
Baseline
Agenda 2000
Change
% Change
21
21
0.00
0.02%
28
27
-0.58
-2.11%
32
31
-1.17
-3.69%
Russia Net Imports
Baseline
Agenda 2000
Change
% Change
230
230
0.00
0.00%
243
243
0.71
0.29%
Japan Net Imports
Baseline
Agenda 2000
Change
% Change
192
192
0.00
0.00%
U.S. Net Imports
Baseline
Agenda 2000
Change
% Change
2004
(Thousand MT)
305
307
310
312
314
317
6.69
7.00
7.06
2.19%
2.28%
2.28%
2005
2006
2007
2008
311
324
12.51
4.02%
313
331
17.90
5.72%
316
341
24.68
7.81%
318
340
22.55
7.10%
270
271
0.89
0.33%
280
281
0.98
0.35%
290
290
-0.56
-0.19%
302
298
-4.32
-1.43%
313
307
-5.75
-1.84%
144
145
0.81
0.56%
149
150
1.31
0.88%
154
155
1.09
0.71%
158
158
-0.68
-0.43%
163
158
-4.89
-2.99%
168
160
-7.85
-4.68%
35
33
-1.54
-4.46%
37
35
-1.47
-3.99%
40
39
-1.01
-2.55%
41
40
-0.93
-2.27%
41
40
-0.79
-1.91%
42
41
-0.92
-2.18%
43
41
-1.09
-2.57%
259
261
1.82
0.70%
268
270
2.00
0.75%
276
277
0.93
0.34%
285
286
1.28
0.45%
288
291
3.12
1.08%
285
288
3.32
1.16%
286
285
-0.23
-0.08%
282
276
-5.95
-2.11%
196
197
0.07
0.03%
204
204
0.13
0.06%
214
214
0.23
0.11%
225
226
0.34
0.15%
238
238
0.35
0.15%
251
251
0.49
0.20%
264
265
0.69
0.26%
278
279
0.89
0.32%
292
294
1.17
0.40%
115
115
0.00
0.00%
117
117
0.00
0.00%
117
117
0.00
0.00%
117
117
0.00
0.00%
118
118
0.00
0.00%
118
118
0.00
0.00%
118
118
0.00
0.00%
118
118
0.00
0.00%
119
119
0.00
0.00%
119
119
0.00
0.00%
Rest of World Net Imports
Baseline
Agenda 2000
Change
% Change
150
150
0.00
0.00%
145
145
0.15
0.10%
141
141
0.39
0.28%
142
143
1.03
0.73%
144
146
1.56
1.08%
146
148
1.41
0.96%
149
152
2.53
1.69%
154
158
4.56
2.97%
156
164
8.00
5.11%
160
172
11.19
6.98%
Cheese, FOB N.Eur.
Baseline
Agenda 2000
Change
% Change
2,316
2,316
0.00
0.00%
2,351
2,346
-4.47
-0.19%
2,436
2,430
-6.56
-0.27%
(U.S. Dollar per MT)
2,443
2,448
2,463
2,431
2,432
2,450
-11.78
-15.58
-13.84
-0.48%
-0.64%
-0.56%
2,469
2,447
-21.79
-0.88%
2,471
2,444
-27.41
-1.11%
2,485
2,451
-33.72
-1.36%
2,488
2,446
-42.34
-1.70%
Dairy
Impacts of Agenda 2000 on World Butter Markets
1999
5 of 6
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
EU Net Exports
Baseline
Agenda 2000
Change
% Change
80
80
0.00
0.00%
115
122
7.75
6.76%
121
137
16.19
13.39%
(Thousand MT)
125
128
130
145
149
151
19.79
20.72
20.99
15.83% 16.20% 16.17%
New Zealand Net Exports
Baseline
Agenda 2000
Change
% Change
322
322
0.00
0.00%
327
326
-0.83
-0.25%
331
330
-0.77
-0.23%
335
334
-0.87
-0.26%
337
336
-1.13
-0.33%
Australia Net Exports
Baseline
Agenda 2000
Change
% Change
104
104
0.00
0.00%
104
103
-0.49
-0.47%
105
105
-0.33
-0.31%
108
108
-0.22
-0.20%
Argentina Net Exports
Baseline
Agenda 2000
Change
% Change
5
5
0.00
0.04%
7
7
-0.32
-4.57%
8
8
-0.34
-4.10%
Russia Net Imports
Baseline
Agenda 2000
Change
% Change
175
175
0.00
0.00%
189
190
1.03
0.54%
Ukraine Net Exports
Baseline
Agenda 2000
Change
% Change
54
54
0.00
0.00%
U.S. Net Exports
Baseline
Agenda 2000
Change
% Change
2005
2006
2007
2008
132
144
12.14
9.19%
133
132
-1.06
-0.79%
134
115
-19.15
-14.26%
135
107
-28.56
-21.14%
340
338
-1.25
-0.37%
342
342
-0.67
-0.19%
345
347
1.18
0.34%
348
353
4.83
1.39%
351
357
6.16
1.75%
111
111
-0.22
-0.20%
114
114
-0.10
-0.08%
117
118
0.36
0.31%
120
122
1.24
1.03%
124
127
2.91
2.35%
127
131
3.44
2.70%
9
9
-0.41
-4.38%
10
9
-0.51
-5.22%
10
10
-0.56
-5.50%
11
10
-0.32
-3.00%
11
11
0.43
3.95%
11
13
1.87
17.03%
11
13
2.37
21.46%
199
201
2.25
1.13%
207
210
2.34
1.13%
213
215
1.99
0.93%
219
221
1.92
0.88%
225
226
1.05
0.47%
228
228
0.04
0.02%
227
225
-1.71
-0.75%
223
219
-3.27
-1.47%
51
50
-0.40
-0.78%
51
51
-0.78
-1.52%
53
52
-0.86
-1.63%
53
52
-0.92
-1.72%
54
53
-1.02
-1.90%
54
54
-0.61
-1.13%
54
54
-0.01
-0.03%
53
54
0.83
1.57%
52
54
1.27
2.42%
-7
-7
0.00
0.00%
-8
-8
0.00
0.00%
-4
-4
0.00
0.00%
-5
-5
0.00
0.00%
-2
-2
0.00
0.00%
0
0
0.00
0.00%
1
1
0.00
0.00%
3
3
0.00
0.00%
5
5
0.00
0.00%
6
6
0.00
0.00%
Rest of World Net Imports
Baseline
Agenda 2000
Change
% Change
338
338
0.00
0.00%
354
356
2.49
0.71%
362
369
7.45
2.06%
364
375
10.23
2.81%
365
376
11.06
3.03%
366
377
11.08
3.03%
366
373
6.66
1.82%
369
371
1.65
0.45%
376
374
-2.32
-0.62%
386
381
-5.05
-1.31%
Butter, FOB N.Eur.
Baseline
Agenda 2000
Change
% Change
1,798
1,798
0.00
0.00%
1,761
1,749
-12.07
-0.69%
1,778
1,746
-31.82
-1.79%
(U.S. Dollar per MT)
1,801
1,826
1,848
1,765
1,791
1,815
-35.96
-34.45
-32.62
-2.00%
-1.89%
-1.77%
1,875
1,864
-11.87
-0.63%
1,886
1,888
1.98
0.11%
1,882
1,890
7.61
0.40%
1,875
1,887
11.61
0.62%
Dairy
Impacts of Agenda 2000 on World SMP Markets
1999
6 of 6
2000
2001
2002
2003
EU Net Exports
Baseline
Agenda 2000
Change
% Change
186
186
0.00
0.00%
194
200
5.94
3.06%
194
194
0.00
0.00%
New Zealand Net Exports
Baseline
Agenda 2000
Change
% Change
211
211
0.00
0.00%
225
224
-1.31
-0.58%
237
236
-0.90
-0.38%
248
247
-1.04
-0.42%
257
255
-1.62
-0.63%
Australia Net Exports
Baseline
Agenda 2000
Change
% Change
195
195
0.00
0.00%
200
199
-1.10
-0.55%
207
206
-0.54
-0.26%
216
215
-0.37
-0.17%
Poland Net Exports
Baseline
Agenda 2000
Change
% Change
95
95
0.00
0.00%
94
94
-0.34
-0.36%
91
91
0.09
0.10%
Mexico Net Imports
Baseline
Agenda 2000
Change
% Change
132
132
0.00
0.00%
134
134
0.43
0.32%
Brazil Net Imports
Baseline
Agenda 2000
Change
% Change
41
41
0.00
-0.01%
U.S. Net Exports
Baseline
Agenda 2000
Change
% Change
2004
(Thousand MT)
194
188
185
194
194
194
0.00
5.56
9.40
0.00%
2.95%
5.09%
2005
2006
2007
2008
182
194
11.71
6.42%
181
177
-3.34
-1.85%
179
135
-44.38
-24.74%
177
116
-61.59
-34.71%
266
264
-2.00
-0.75%
275
273
-1.28
-0.47%
284
286
1.96
0.69%
293
301
8.77
3.00%
302
313
11.22
3.72%
225
224
-0.58
-0.26%
233
233
-0.50
-0.22%
242
242
0.14
0.06%
251
253
2.28
0.91%
260
267
6.90
2.65%
269
278
8.60
3.19%
94
94
0.44
0.46%
99
99
0.06
0.06%
102
102
-0.47
-0.46%
106
105
-0.93
-0.88%
109
109
-0.31
-0.28%
112
113
1.34
1.20%
115
117
2.13
1.85%
130
130
0.04
0.03%
131
131
0.32
0.24%
134
135
0.79
0.59%
137
138
1.00
0.73%
141
143
1.42
1.00%
145
146
0.52
0.36%
150
148
-1.95
-1.30%
154
151
-2.70
-1.76%
46
46
0.71
1.55%
43
43
0.25
0.58%
42
42
0.30
0.72%
43
43
0.74
1.75%
44
45
1.02
2.31%
47
47
0.56
1.19%
49
48
-1.65
-3.35%
53
46
-6.38
-12.12%
56
48
-7.87
-14.00%
120
120
0.00
0.00%
116
116
0.00
0.00%
88
88
0.00
0.00%
69
69
0.00
0.00%
68
68
0.00
0.00%
68
68
0.00
0.00%
68
68
0.00
0.00%
67
67
0.00
0.00%
67
67
0.00
0.00%
67
67
0.00
0.00%
Rest of World Net Imports
Baseline
Agenda 2000
Change
% Change
73
73
0.00
0.00%
78
79
0.46
0.59%
73
73
-0.41
-0.55%
70
70
-0.51
-0.72%
69
69
0.26
0.37%
68
69
0.97
1.43%
68
71
2.25
3.30%
68
70
1.36
1.99%
68
64
-3.62
-5.34%
67
60
-6.83
-10.17%
SMP, FOB N.Eur.
Baseline
Agenda 2000
Change
% Change
1,260
1,260
0.00
0.00%
1,289
1,281
-8.14
-0.63%
1,413
1,418
4.53
0.32%
(U.S. Dollar per MT)
1,460
1,486
1,518
1,460
1,475
1,501
0.28
-11.19
-16.90
0.02%
-0.75%
-1.11%
1,540
1,509
-30.68
-1.99%
1,568
1,557
-11.04
-0.70%
1,604
1,657
52.89
3.30%
1,640
1,711
70.62
4.31%
Dairy