Facets of the Bioeconomy Affecting the Small Towns of Iowa

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Facets of the Bioeconomy
Affecting the Small Towns of Iowa
Bruce A. Babcock
Center for Agricultural and Rural Development
Iowa State University
www.card.iastate.edu
Presented at Community Futures: The Small Town in the Bioeconomy April 10, 2007
Projected U.S. Ethanol Production from Corn
16,000
14,000
million gallons
12,000
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2016
Projected U.S. Ethanol Production from Corn
16,000
14,000
million gallons
12,000
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2016
Projected U.S. Corn Planted Acreage
95
million acres
90
85
80
75
70
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2016
Projected Corn Prices
3.50
3.45
3.40
3.35
$/bu
3.30
3.25
3.20
3.15
3.10
3.05
3.00
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2016
Projected Soybean Planted Acreage
78
76
million acres
74
72
70
68
66
64
62
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2016
Projected Soybean Prices
7.40
7.20
7.00
6.80
$/bu
6.60
6.40
6.20
6.00
5.80
5.60
5.40
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2016
Community Impacts
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Farm operators
Land owners
Ethanol investors
Infrastructure
Environment
Livestock industry
Economic activity
Land Rent Determination
• Rent = Maximum willingness to pay for an
additional crop ground
– Higher crop prices have increased market
returns over costs by about $155 per acre
– Government payments reduced by about $35
per acre
Land rents should jump by about $120 per
acre
Agricultural Land Price
Determination
• Change in land price =
change in land rent * capitalization factor
$120 * 16.67 = $2,000
• $3,000/ac pre-boom (2005) land prices
• 67% increase in value of Iowa cropland
Total Value of Iowa Cropland
140
120
$ billion
100
80
60
40
20
0
Pre-Boom
Post-Boom
Impact on Farm Operator Returns
• Money in
– Crop revenue plus government payments
• Money out
– Production costs, machinery payments, land
rent
• If changes in land rent fully reflect changes
in revenue and costs, then farm operators
are unaffected
Impact on Land Owners
• Increased asset values increases wealth
levels of many Iowans
• A significant portion of this increased
wealth accrues to Iowa farmers and other
rural residents
• Increased wealth is associated with
increased investment and consumption.
Impact on Ethanol Plant Owners
• Economics of commodities
– High prices lead to high profits
– High profits leads to expansion of supply
– Expansion of supply leads to lower prices
– Lower prices reduce profits
– Contraction of supply increases prices .....
Difference with Biofuels
• Economics of ethanol
– High prices lead to high profits
– High profits lead to expansion of supply
– Expansion of supply lead to higher feedstock
(corn) prices
– Higher costs reduce profits, until...
– No more incentive to invest in more ethanol
plants
Projected U.S. Dry Mill Margins Over Operating Costs
and Over Total Costs
1.60
1.40
1.20
$/bushel
1.00
0.80
0.60
0.40
0.20
0.00
2004
-0.20
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
-0.40
Dry Mill Margin Over Operating Costs
Margin Over Total Cost
2018
Infrastructure
Acres Planted to Corn and Soybeans
in Iowa since 1995
15
14
13
Million
12
11
10
9
8
7
6
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
Corn
2002
2003
Soybeans
2004
2005
2006 2007* 2008*
Infrastructure
• Greater investment in
– storage
– tillage equipment
– fertilizer import, handling, manufacture
– biorefineries (at least until 2009)
– in-state grain transportation
• Less investment in
– grain export facilities
Environmental Impacts
• Less CRP land
Percentage of Iowa CRP Acres to be Cropped at
Different Corn Prices, from a Total of 1.9 Million Acres
6.00
5.00
$/bu
4.00
3.00
2.00
1.00
0.00
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
% Acres out of CRP
60%
70%
80%
Environmental Impacts
• Less CRP land
– increased soil loss
– increased nutrient runoff
– loss of wildlife habitat
• Less conservation tillage as corn on corn
acreage increases
Livestock Industry
• Higher feed costs reduce livestock feeder
profits
• Lower profits leads to supply contraction
• Supply contraction leads to higher poultry,
egg, hog, milk, and cattle prices
Does this mean hard times for a large
Iowa industry?
Impact of the Move from Cheap to
Expensive Corn on Beef
• Nebraska steer prices increase by 8.8%
• Retail beef prices increase by 4%
• Beef exports fall by 8%
• Beef Production falls by 1.6%
Impact of the Move from Cheap to
Expensive Corn on Pork
• Hog cost of production increases 18%
• Pork production falls 4.6%
• Retail price of pork rises 4.2%
• Exports fall by 17% from baseline levels
Impact of the Move from Cheap to
Expensive Corn on Broilers
• Wholesale broiler prices increase by 15%
• Retail prices go up by 5%
• Exports fall by 16%
• Domestic consumption falls by 4%
• Production falls by 6%
Health of the Livestock Industry
• Livestock will be marginally smaller
• Iowa impacted more by regulatory
environment than by economic
environment
• Future health could be enhanced by colocating dairies and beef cattle operations
with ethanol plants
Economic Activity
• On the positive side
– New investments in physical plant and
processing capacity
– High crop prices and expanded crop
production
– More value added
• On the negative side
– Marginally smaller livestock industry
– Some negative feedback from environment?
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