World Energy Outlook 2004 Noé van Hulst RIETI

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INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY
World Energy Outlook 2004
Noé van Hulst
Director, Long-Term Co-operation and Policy Analysis
RIETI
Tokyo, 16 December 2004
Global Energy Trends:
Reference Scenario
1
World Primary Energy Demand
7 000
Oil
6 000
Mtoe
5 000
Natural gas
4 000
Coal
3 000
Other renewables
2 000
Nuclear power
Hydro power
1 000
0
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
Fossil fuels will continue to dominate the global energy mix,
2
while oil remains the leading fuel
Regional Shares in World Primary Energy
Demand
2002
2030
43%
38%
52%
48%
9%
10%
10 200 Mtoe
OECD
16 325 Mtoe
Transition economies
Developing countries
Two-thirds of the increase in world demand between 2002 and
2030 comes from developing countries, especially in Asia 3
Increase in World Primary Energy
Production by Region
6 000
share of total increase (%)
85%
5 000
Mtoe
4 000
59%
3 000
2 000
31%
1 000
10%
12%
3%
0
1971-2002
OECD
Transition economies
2002-2030
Developing countries
Almost all the increase in production to 2030 occurs outside
4
the OECD, up from less than 70% in 1971-2002
Inter-Regional Trade in World Fossil-Fuel
Supply
6 000
Trade as % of world demand
5 000
63%
Mtoe
4 000
3 000
26%
15%
46%
14%
15%
2 000
1 000
0
2002
2030
2002
Oil
Domestic consumption
2030
Gas
2002
2030
Coal
Traded between regions
Energy trade between regions more than doubles by
2030, most of it still in the form of oil
5
Oil Flows & Major Chokepoints: The
“Dire Straits”
The risk of an oil-supply disruption will grow as trade & flows
6
through key maritime & pipeline chokepoints expand
Undiscovered Oil and Gas Resources
and Exploration Wells Drilled, 1995-2003
Number of New Wells Drilled
in 1995-2003
Undiscovered Oil & Gas
Resources
2%
5%
22%
27%
28%
7%
9%
64%
24%
12%
24 500 fields
1.9 trillion boe
Middle East
Europe
Former Soviet Union
North America
Africa, Latin America and Asia
Discoveries have fallen in recent years, mainly because
exploration has shifted to less prospective regions
7
Access to Oil Reserves
Iraq
10%
National
companies only
(Saudi Arabia,
Kuwait, Mexico)
35%
Concession
21%
Production
sharing
12%
Limited access National
companies
22%
1,032 billion barrels
Access to much of the world’s remaining oil reserves is restricted
8
Oil Reserves Transparency
z The Earth’s oil resources are adequate until 2030
and beyond
z Less certain is whether sufficient investment will
flow to the ‘right’ locations at the ‘right’ time
z IEA calls for improved oil reserve data
transparency, including:
¾ A universally-recognised, transparent, consistent and
comprehensive reporting system
¾ A system of collecting, compiling & publishing primary
data on national reserves
z IEA to develop initiative through international
forums in conjunction with others orgs. (eg. OPEC,
UN, financial regulators) and our member govts
9
Oil Market Implications of High Oil Price
Case vs Reference Scenario
0
-5
mb/d
-10
-15
-20
-25
-30
0
-100
-200
-300
-400
-500
-600
-700
billion $ (2000)
Oil demand
2030
OPEC
production
2030
OPEC
cumulative
revenues
2003-2030
-800
-900
Crude oil price is assumed to remain at average for 2004 to date,
10
with major implications for global oil markets
Russian Gas Production
1 000
bcm
750
500
250
0
1992
2002
2010
Primary domestic consumption
Net exports to other transition economies
2020
2030
Exports to EU
Exports to other regions
Russia will remain the single largest supplier to the EU,
assuming investment in developing new fields is forthcoming
11
Contribution of Oil & Gas Sectors
to GDP, 2002
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
Canada
Norway
Russia
Algeria
Iran
Importance of oil & gas sector in the Russian economy has grown
sharply in recent years, approaching that of some OPEC countries
12
Cumulative Energy Investment,
2003-2030
OECD North America
OECD Europe
OECD Pacific
Transition economies
China
Other Asia
Middle East
Africa
Latin America
0
500
1 000
1 500
2 000
2 500
3 000
3 500
billion $ (2000)
Coal
Oil
Gas
Electricity
Power sector absorbs 62% of global energy investment in
13
the period 2003-2030
CO2 Emissions, 1971-2030
20 000
Mt of CO 2
16 000
12 000
8 000
4 000
0
1970
1980
OECD
1990
2000
Transition economies
2010
2020
2030
Developing countries
CO2 emissions will increase fastest in developing countries,
14
overtaking OECD in the 2020s
Asia-Pacific Energy Trends:
Reference Scenario
15
China’s share of Incremental World
Production & Energy Demand, 19982003
GDP
Crude steel production
Cement production
Ethylene production*
Primary oil demand
Primary coal demand
Electricity demand
CO22 emissions
0
20
40
60
80
per cent
Booming industrial production in China is driving up energy
16
demand & emissions - and energy prices
Share of Developing Asia in World
Incremental Energy Demand
90
80
70
per cent
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
1971-2002
Primary energy demand
2002-2030
Coal
Oil
Gas
Electricity consumption
Developing Asia will account for 42% of the increase in demand
through 2030, compared with 34% in the last three decades
17
China Oil Supply Balance
80%
12
60%
9
40%
6
20%
3
0%
0
-20%
mb/d
15
1990
2000
Production
2010
Demand
2020
2030
Imports as % of demand (right axis)
China’s oil imports will soar from around 2 mb/d now to almost
10 mb/d in 2030 – equal to over 74% of domestic demand
18
OECD Asia Energy Trends:
Reference Scenario
19
Primary Fuel Mix in Japan & Korea
2002
2030
Hydro Renewables
2%
1%
Nuclear
Coal
15%
20%
Nuclear
18%
Hydro Renewables
4%
1%
Coal
18%
Gas
12%
Gas
18%
Oil
50%
721 Mtoe
Oil
41%
956 Mtoe
Increased use of gas & nuclear for power generation reduces the
20
share of oil & coal in the primary fuel mix
Primary Gas Demand in Japan & Korea
140
120
bcm
100
80
60
40
20
0
1990
2002
Japan
2010
2020
2030
Korea
Power generation underpins surging gas use in both Japan &
21
Korea
Change in Electricity Generation by Fuel
in Japan & Korea
450
350
TWh
250
150
50
-50
1971-2002
2002-2030
-150
Coal
Oil
Gas
Nuclear
Hydro
Other renewables
Most new power-generation capacity is gas-fired or nuclear22
Increase in Energy-Related CO2
Emissions by Sector in Japan & Korea
250
Mt of CO2
200
150
100
50
0
1990-2002
Power generation
2002-2030
Industry
Transport
Other
Most of the projected increase in emissions comes from power
23
generation & transport in almost equal measure
Asia-Pacific Energy Trends:
Alternative Policy Scenario
24
Japan & Korea CO2 Emissions
in the Reference & Alternative Scenarios
2 100
2 000
1 900
Mt of CO 2
1 800
1 700
1 600
1 500
1 400
1 300
1 200
1990
2000
Reference Scenario
2010
2020
2030
Alternative Scenario
With new policies, Japan & Korea stabilise their emissions in the
2010s and drive them back down to 2002 levels by 2030 25
China CO2 Emissions
in the Reference & Alternative Scenarios
8 000
7 000
Mt of CO 2
6 000
5 000
4 000
3 000
2 000
1 000
0
1990
2000
Reference Scenario
2010
2020
2030
Alternative Scenario
With new policies, China could curb
its CO2 emissions by 18% in 2030
26
Contributory Factors in CO2 Reduction
Alternative vs Reference Scenario
2002-2030
100%
5%
10%
80%
12%
20%
21%
60%
4%
8%
21%
5%
17%
15%
7%
1%
7%
10%
40%
58%
20%
63%
67%
Transition economies
Developing countries
49%
0%
World
OECD
End-use efficiency gains
Fuel switching in end uses
Increased renewables in power generation
Increased nuclear in power generation
Changes in the fossil-fuel mix in power generation
Improvements in end-use efficiency contribute for more than
half of decrease in emissions, and renewables use for 20% 27
Summary & Conclusions
28
Summary & Conclusions (1)
z On current policies, world energy needs will be
almost 60% higher in 2030 than now
z Energy resources are more than adequate to meet
demand until 2030 & well beyond
z But projected market trends raise serious concerns:
¾ Increased vulnerability to supply disruptions
¾ Rising CO2 emissions
¾ Huge energy-investment needs
¾ Persistent energy poverty
z More vigorous policies would curb rate of increase
in energy demand & emissions significantly
z But a truly sustainable energy system will call for
faster technology development & deployment
z Urgent & decisive government action is needed 29
Summary & Conclusions (2)
z Asia’s importance to world energy markets – and its
share in CO2 emissions - will continue to grow
¾ Most of the region’s incremental demand & emissions will
come from developing Asia – notably China & India
¾ Energy demand will grow much more slowly in Japan &
Korea
z Net imports of oil & gas – and reliance on key
chokepoints - will continue to grow
z New policies would reverse the rising emissions
trend in OECD Asia, but not in developing Asia
30
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