Democracy Without Competition: Opposition Failure in One-Party Dominant Japan Ethan Scheiner Stanford University Party Competition Failure: Challenges to Democracy • Problem of one party dominance – “Uncommon Democracies” • If the party is popular Æ not a problem • If the party is unpopular Æ failure of democracy 2 Ruling Party Unpopularity: Failure of Democracy, the Japanese Case Japan • • • • Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) Rules Economic Collapse Political Corruption Voter anger – – – – 55% of public: no party affiliation Only 20-30% support for ruling LDP Typically low cabinet approval 44% dislike LDP ¾But no successful challenger to LDP 3 The Puzzle: Party Competition Failure in Japan What can explain opposition party failure in a democratic system where the ruling party is very unpopular? 4 Outline I. Introduction – Party Competition Failure: Challenges to Democracy II. Framework III. IV. Background on Japan Candidate Experience as Key to Party Success V. Analysis of Local Opposition Failure A. Japan B. Comparative Typology VI. Implications for New Democracies 5 Part II –Framework The Impact of Candidacies: Explaining Party Competition Failure in Japan • Key to party success: strong candidates – Japan: Weak opposition candidates • Underlying problem: opposition weakness at subnational level • But, WHY subnational opposition failure? 6 Central Argument Clientelism + Financially Centralized Government Structure Failure in Subnational Office Elections by Parties not in the National Government 7 Part III – Background on Japan and Existing Explanations for Opposition Failure A History of LDP Dominance 1955-1990 • LDP: majority of the seats in every House of Representatives (HR) election • But slow decline in LDP support 1990-1995 • Growing Anti-LDP sentiment • LDP split and temporary loss of power (8/93-6/94) 1996-Present • Anger toward LDP remains • Birth of centrist Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) • BUT LDP dominance continues 8 Past Failure to Explain LDP Dominance/Opposition Failure I. Party Popularity • Miracle Economy • Japanese Culture • LDP Policies Problem: ¾ LDP is not popular. It has not won majority of the vote since 1963. II. Electoral Institutions • Opposition coordination problems Problems: ¾ Electoral system affected opposition and LDP. ¾ Opposition failure continues under new electoral system. 9 Part IV – Candidate “Quality” or Experience is Key to Party Success Chart 1: LDP Success: It’s the Candidates, not the Party P r o p o r t io n o f P a r t y V o t e s W o n 45 40 Percentage of PR Vote 35 LDP 30 25 20 L e a d in g O p p o s i t io n P a rty 15 10 5 0 1 9 9 5 (H C ) 1 9 9 6 (H R ) 1 9 9 8 (H C ) 2 0 0 0 (H R ) E le c tio n P r o p o r t io n o f C a n d id a t e V o t e s W o n Percentage of District Vote 45 40 LDP 35 30 25 20 L e a d in g O p p o s it io n P a rty 15 10 5 0 1 9 9 5 (H C ) 1 9 9 6 (H R ) 1 9 9 8 (H C ) E le c t io n 2 0 0 0 (H R ) 0 10 Implication: The Importance of Candidates LDP Has Candidate Advantage • Confirmed by opposition • LDP has more incumbents The Importance of “Quality” New Candidates • Jacobson (1990): “Quality”/experienced U.S. Congressional candidates more likely to win • Best source of “quality”: subnational level office • LDP advantage in “quality” of new candidates too? 11 What is a “Quality” Candidate? • Former local office holders • Other: Former member of Upper House of parliament, former bureaucrat, former television newscasters, those who “inherited” seat from family member 12 Chart 2: All “Quality” Candidates Do Well, But LDP Has Higher Proportion of Quality Candidates LDP DPJ Total Candidates 280 242 New Candidates 56 139 % of New Candidates Who Were “Quality” 59% 18% % of “Non-Quality” New Candidates Who Won 22% 12% 42% 48% % of “Quality” New Candidates Who Won “Quality” LDP and DPJ Candidates in 2000 (300 total single member districts) 13 Chart 3: LDP As A Party Is Not More Popular LDP Success Is Due To Its Candidate Advantage Former Local Office Holders More Likely To Win (Predicted Probabilities of Victory) Runs against DPJ or LDP Incumbent No Incumbent Opponent Non-Quality Former Local Office Holder 5.8% 19.2% 31.1% 58.2% ¾ LDP advantage is in its higher proportion of quality candidates and former local office holders. 14 Part V – The Underpinnings of the Recruitment Problems of Japan’s Opposition Q: Why doesn’t the opposition run more candidates with local office experience? A: Few office holders belong to opposition parties at the subnational level. The Reason Clientelism + Financially Centralized Government Structure Failure in Subnational Office Elections by Parties not in the National Government 15 Definitions Clientelism • Contrasts with “issue-based” politics • Patronage and pork barrel Financially Centralized Systems • Subnational reliance on central government financing • Transfers to localities: politicized 16 Clientelism + Fiscal Centralization Encourages Local Pols To Affiliate With Nat’l Ruling Party Clientelist Systems • Mainstream local politicians must show they can bring in patronage Financially Centralized Systems • Local level politicians’ primary function: help deliver benefits from center Clientelist + Financially Centralized Systems • To gain central funding, local politicians have incentive to ally with national ruling parties 17 Chart 4: Local LDP Hegemony, Utter Opposition Failure at Local Level P rop ortion of L egislative Seats H eld by th e L D P (1970-1997) 70% L D P P re fe c tu ra l A ss e m b ly S e a ts 60% Percentage 50% L D P N a tio n a l H R S e a ts 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 Year P rop ortion of Seats H eld by N on-L D P P arties (1970-1997) 70% Percentage 60% O p p o s itio n N a tio n a l H R S e a ts 50% 40% 30% 20% O p p o s itio n P re fe c tu ra l A s s e m b ly S e a ts 10% 0% 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 Year 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 18 National-Local Pipelines of Pork: The Reason for Local Opposition Failure • LDP local hegemony due to efforts to maintain “pipeline” between center and localities • LDP patron-client relationships at core of pipelines • Pipelines – Discourage local party defection from LDP – Encourage local party defection to the LDP 19 If Pipelines Are Important, What Should We See? • If fiscal dependence is important to local elections ¾ Opposition most successful where the pipeline is less important The opposition’s greatest success should occur in the most autonomous prefectures. 20 Definition of “Autonomy” Local Fiscal Capability Index Locality' s Revenues (i.e., Local Taxes) Autonomy Index = Locality' s Spending " Needs" Note: Central government caps local tax rates across country 21 Opposition Wins More Assembly Seats In Autonomous Prefectures Chart 5: Opposition Prefectural Assembly Success by Level of Autonomy (1967-1991) Proportion of Prefectural Assembly Seats Held by Opposition Parties 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 Local Autonomy Index R=.57 22 Greater Opposition Local Success in Autonomous Prefectures: Review of Statistical Results Prefectural Assemblies • Even controlling for other variables, – More opposition assembly members in places and times of greater autonomy Mayors • During periods of greater autonomy: – More opposition mayors • During periods of lesser autonomy: – Fewer opposition mayors – Rise in number of opposition mayors who also sought LDP endorsement 23 Comparative Perspective: Japan Is The Rule, Not The Exception Chart 6: Comparative Typology Party-Voter Linkages Level of Financial Centralization ProgrammaticIssue Based Clientelist • Decentralized Centralized Germany UK Brazil Italy Austria Mexico Japan Local one-party dominance common in Clientelist/Financially Centralized cases. – Exceptions similar to Japan’s 24 Part VI: Conclusion Summary of Key Points (1) Importance of “quality” candidates (2) Major Contribution: Clientelism + Fiscal Centralization Local Opposition Failure (3) Explanation for opposition failure in Japan at the national level: A combination of (1) and (2). 25 Final Thoughts • A Vicious Circle in Japan – Parties cannot gain strength at national level without gaining at local. – Cannot gain strength at local level without holding power at national. • Hope for Japan’s Opposition? – National party developments (new LDP defection?) – Decentralization movement – Growing anti-clientelist sentiments • Implications for New Democracies – New democracies likely to be clientelistic – Important to create institutions that decentralize fiscal power ¾Decentralization can raise the quality of democracy 26 LDP As A Party Is Not More Popular LDP Success Is Due To Its Candidate Advantage Chart 3: Probit Model of New Candidate Success in 2000 (LDP and DPJ) Variables Quality Former Local Politician HC Bureaucrat TV Inherit LDP Campaign Expenditures Opponent Inherits Weak Inherit Ran in 96 Urban Incumbent Opponent Major Incumbent Opponent Aggregated Model Disaggregated Model Coef. Coef. (SE) 0.702 1.506 1.549 1.729 a -0.476 0.405 b 1.109 0.527 0.338 -0.294 -0.784 (0.333)** (0.708)** (0.468)*** (0.860)** 1.077 -0.457 0.851 b 1.023 0.525 0.293 -0.441 -0.839 (SE) (0.282)*** (0.297) (0.851) (0.822) (0.288)* (0.155)* (0.360) (0.296)** (0.582)** Constant -1.189 191 N 79.0 Percent Correctly Predicted .244 Goodman-Kruskal λ (PRE) 55.52 Chi-sq 0.0000 Prob>chi-sq .2662 Pseudo R-sq -76.520 Log Likelihood *p<.05 (one-tail), **p<.05 (two-tail), ***p<.01 (two-tail) • • • -1.294 184 88.2 .244 42.77 0.0000 .2282 -72.329 (0.313) (1.187) (0.824) (0.295)* (0.162)** (0.442) (0.301)** (0.667)* “LDP”: negative and non-significant “Quality” & “Former Local Politician”: positive and significant 27 Former Local Pols: 15-30 percentage points more likely to win than non-quality cands Opposition Wins More Assembly Seats In Autonomous Prefectures: Statistical Evidence Opposition Party Success in Prefectural Assembly Elections (1971-1991): Panel Data Estimation D ependent V ariable= Proportion of Seats W on by O pposition in Prefecture i in E lection t (w ith logit transform ation) V ariables C onstant A utono m y G D P G row th L ag of D ependent V ariable (Pref. i, E lection t-1) 1971 (dum m y variable) Proportion of Seats W on by O pposition at H R L evel in Prefecture i in last H R election before t N F (5, 46) Prob > F R -Sq N um ber of clusters (prefectures): 47 C oef. -0.543 0.182 -0.033 0.718 0.254 0.588 (Std. E rror) (0.129)*** (0.055)*** (0.008)*** (0.051)*** (0.055)*** (0.187)*** 280 463.95 0.0000 0.755 *p<.05 (one-tail), **p<.05 (tw o-tail), ***p<.01 (tw o-tail) •Autonomy is statistically significant and positive 28 Greater Autonomy Leads to a Larger Proportion of Local Executives Who Are Progressive Chart A: Mean Levels of Autonomy and Proportion of Local Executives Who Are Opposition 1.05 Mean Autonomy Score for All Prefectures 0.95 0.9 0.85 Proportion of All Mayors W ho Are Opposition 79 19 78 19 77 19 76 19 75 19 74 19 73 19 72 19 71 19 70 19 69 19 68 19 67 19 66 19 65 19 64 19 63 0.8 19 Standardized Values 1 Year 29 Chart B: Rise in Proportion of LDP-Affiliated Mayors, While Decline in Opposition-only Mayors Once Greater Dependence on Central Government 0.55 LDP-Opposition Jointly Endorsed Mayors 0.50 0.45 Proportion 0.40 0.35 0.30 0.25 Opposition-only Mayors 0.20 0.15 0.10 0.05 0.00 1976 1979 1983 1987 Year 30 Chart C: Fewer Progressive Mayors When Fewer Cities Operate at a Deficit 0.25 Proportion of Localities with Opposition Mayor 0.15 0.1 0.05 Proportion of Localities Operating at a Deficit 0 19 75 19 76 19 77 19 78 19 79 19 80 19 81 19 82 19 83 19 84 19 85 19 86 19 87 Proportion 0.2 Year 31 Chart D: Correlates of Opposition Party Success or Failure TYPE O F SYSTEM C L IE N T E L IS T ? No G erm any S w eden UK No C anada US No M e x ic o T a iw a n Y es C E N T R A L IZ E D ? Y es P A R L IA M E N T A R Y ? Y es C A N D ID A T E CENTERED ELECTORAL SYSTEM ? No A u s tr ia Israel No I ta l y C O M P E T IT IV E O P P O S IT IO N Y es IN S T IT U T IO N A L P R O T E C T IO N O F C L IE N T E L E ? Y es Japan O P P O S IT IO N F A IL U R E 32