Toyota in Global Recession July 16, 2009 Shigeru Hayakawa

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1
Toyota’s Tasks and Challenges
in Global Recession
July 16, 2009
Shigeru Hayakawa
Managing Director
Toyota Motor Corporation
2
AGENDA
1. Situation of Global Automobile Market
2. Toyota’s Situation
3. Toyota’s Challenge
4. Policy Proposals
3
8000
7000
6000
Mid. East, Africa
5000
Oceania
4000
Latin America
3000
Asia
2000
Europe
North America
1000
Japan
0
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
1=10,000 units
1. Situation of Global Automobile Market
CY
CY
4
Automobile Market Trend in US
(annualized
rate)
1=10,000 units
1=10,000 units
“Lehman Shock”
Emergency Economic Stabilization
Act rejected by the House
18
Bear Stearns
Relief Merger
17
16
16.0
15.4 15.4
15.1
15
14
14.5
Stimulus Policy
Agreement
14.5
Big3 Bailout
(bridge loan)
13.7
12.6
12
Chrysler
Chrysler files
files
for
for Chap.11
Chap.11
13.7
Start of
Tax rebate
13
Annual
Annual rate
rate fall
fall below
below
10mil.
units
for
the
10mil. units for the first
first
time
time since
since Oct.
Oct. 1982
1982
Big3
Public Hearing
12.5
Gas Price
Record-high
11
GM
GM files
files
for
for Chap.11
Chap.11
Enactment of
Emergency
Economic
Stabilization Act
10
10.2
10.6
10.3
9.6
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9.7
9.3
9.1
9
'07/12 '08/1
9.9
9.9
9
10
11
12
'09/1
2
3
4
5
6
5
160%
140%
China
Brazil
India
Russia
120%
100%
80%
60%
M
ar
M
ay
N
20 ov
09
Ja
n
Se
p
Ju
l
M
ar
M
ay
Ja
n
40%
20
08
Market volume change year-to-year basis
Automobile Markets in BRICs
6
1000
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
1=10,000 units
2. Toyota’s Situation
→
→ forecast
forecast
Overseas Sales
Domestic Sales
CY
CY
7
Characteristics of Automobile Industry
1. Broad-based
industry
2. Integral
architecture
3. Large investment
・Comprehensive competitiveness
・Quick reaction to market
fluctuation
・Contribution to local economy
8
3. Toyota’s Challenge
1. Get back to the origin –pursuing basic philosophy
“Contribute to local community through automobile manufacturing”
2. Product-focused Management
(1) Offer Products based on customers’ needs in each region
Japan :Strengthen market suitability and appeal/variation.
Necessary and sufficient line-up
US :Response to market changes once centered on full-sized vehicles
Europe :Shift toward HV
Developing Timely launch of competitive products
Countries:Launch of newly-developed compact vehicles (starting in India)
(2) Promote environmental technology development
(3) Develop “fun- to drive” products and technologies
9
Scenarios for Response to Environmental and Energy Issues
Hybrid technology
Plug-in hybrid technology
Oil
Gasoline and diesel
fuel (from deepdeep-sea
oil fields, oil shales,
etc.)
Drilling and refining
technology
and cost
Build infrastructure
Gasoline and
diesel fuel (from
conventional oil
fields)
Gas storage technology
Natural
gas
Gas
Gasification/synthetic
technology
CO2 reduction technology
(during production of fuel)
Coal
Obtain desired properties
Hydro,
Solar,
Geothermal
energy
Electrical storage
technology for
PHVs and EVs
Hydrogen
production
Nuclear
energy
Electricity
generation
Biomass
Technology
utilizing cellulose
Synthetic fuels
(GTL/CTL/BTL)
Stabilize supply
Bioethanol/biodiesel
Infrastructure
development
Electrical storage
technology for EV
Electricity
CO2 reduction technology
(thermal power station)
CO2 reduction
Hydrogen storage
technology (during
technology
hydrogen production)
Hydrogen
Infrastructure
development
2010
Internal
combustion
engine
2030
EV
FCHV
10
EV Initiatives
Toyota e-com
Accelerate R&D of
new generation EV
(in early 2010s)
Toyota RAV4 EV
Challenges for EV:
1) Cruising range, 2) cost, 3) charging time, 4) dedicated charg
ing infrastructure
charging
x For the time being, a realistic option as compact commuter vehi
cles
vehicles
11
Power-train map in future mobility
Cruising Speed
Large Truck
HV ・PHV Area
Hybrid Vehicle
FCHV-BUS
EV Area
TOYOTA
FCHV-adv
Motorbike
FT-EV
Passenger Cars
Route Bus
TOYOTA PHV
Short Range Commuter
FCHV Area
Delivery Truck
Small Delivery
Driving distance
Fuel:
Electricity
Petrol, Diesel, Bio-fuel,
CNG, GTL/CTL, etc.
Hydrogen
HV and PHV covers a wide area; EV will be introduced as short range commuter
and FCHV as large and mass transporter.
12
4. Policy Proposals
1. Short-term
(1) Market stimulus policy
(2) Response to protectionism
2. Mid-and-long term
(1) Strengthen relationship among Industry, Government and Academia
toward development of next-generation advanced environmental
technology
(2) Liberalization/Facilitation of Trade and Investment
1) Promotion of WTO/EPA 2) Harmonization of regulations/certifications
2) Standardization of certification criteria
(3) Protection of corporate property rights
1) Prevention of double taxation caused by transfer pricing tax
2) Protection of intellectual property
13
Outline of Automobile Market
Stimulus Policies in each Country
Period
Contents of Policy
France 08/12-09/11 Scrap incentives
Scrap incentives
Germany 09/1-12
Japan 09/4-12/3 Tax reduction on low carbon vehicles
09/4-10/3 Scrap incentives
Sales tax deduction from income tax on
US
09/2-12
new vehicle
09/7-12
Scrap Incentives
Continue market stimulation and CO2 reduction efforts
14
Improvement in Toyota Fuel Efficiency
Average Fuel Efficiency for All
Toyota Vehicles (’97 value = 1)
Progress in Average Fuel Efficiency for all Toyota Vehicles
(passenger cars)
1.3
Improvement by HV
1.2
Average Fuel Efficiency
for all Toyota vehicles
Improvement
by
conventional
Engine tech.
1.1
1.0
’97
’98
’99
’00
’01
’02
’03
’04
’05
’06
28% improvement for average fuel efficiency
of all Toyota vehicles sold in Japan over the past 10 years
’07 (year)
15
Promotion of Environmental Technology Development
Japan
(Gov. grant)
US
(Gov. grant)
¥ 2.5 bln. Electric transportation $ 400 mil.
Lithium Development of highperformance technology (×5yrs) grants program
electric storage system
for new-generation
$ 2 bln.
Advanced battery
vehicles
grants program
¥ 2.9 bln.
PostAdvanced scientific
Lithium research project for
(×7yrs )
innovative battery
Strengthen and expand cooperation still more among industry,
government and academia toward development of next-generation
advanced environmental technology
16
Thank you.
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