Potential Flu Outbreak Has Economists Worried
The avian influenza spreading throughout Asia has so far confined its economic harm largely
to farmers, who have had to slaughter tens of millions of their chickens and ducks.
But scientists and economists fear that if the virus were to mutate in such a way as to spread
easily among humans, the global economy could be profoundly disrupted as tens of millions of
people die.
Even if the deaths were largely limited to Asia, U.S. companies, particularly airlines, could
suffer, said economist Eric Graber, president of the National Economists Club, which held a
meeting Thursday to explore the financial ramifications of global epidemics.
In Asian countries, massive deaths would reduce productivity and slash output, he said. Even
worse, "the fear factor" could spread up the globalized supply chain of manufactured goods,
he said.
"People here could become afraid of buying products originating in those countries," he said.
That could harm major importers such as Wal-Mart Stores Inc. "And people will be afraid of
traveling in those countries," hurting U.S. airlines, he said.
A far bigger concern may be that Americans will continue to travel to Asia, and inadvertently
bring back the deadly flu, said another meeting participant, Martin Apple, president of the
Council of Scientific Society Presidents, an organization of the leaders of about 60 scientific
federations and societies.
Apple said that in a "worst-case scenario," in which bird flu was easily passed from human to
human, millions of Americans could die. World Health Organization officials have said the
global death toll could reach 100 million. In a typical year, 36,000 Americans die from regular
flu, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
So far, bird flu, caused by a strain called the H5N1 avian influenza virus, has spread to at least
eight countries in Asia, killing about 55 people. But those deaths appear to have been caused
by direct contact with infected fowl.
"Once we have human-to-human transmission, which is apparently just beginning, it becomes
an extremely serious issue, unless it's contained," Apple said.
The virus is not yet out of control, he noted. "If we took a lot of concerted action in the next
100 days, we could have a big impact," he said. "If we fail to act in the next 180 days, I think
we will pay the consequences."
Even if the virus never mutates, it could have a devastating economic impact if it were to
reach this country and begin killing masses of animals, he said. This virus "has the potential
for eliminating, at least for some period of time, the American poultry industry" as well as the
pork industry, he said.
This week, scientists reported in the journals Nature and Science that, despite efforts to cull
domesticated flocks of fowl, migratory geese that can fly far beyond China may be spreading
bird flu.
The epidemic of severe acute respiratory syndrome in Asia in 2002- 03 was limited in
economic impact, said Maureen Lewis, senior fellow at the Center for Global Development.
Even so, SARS did serious harm to certain economic sectors.
According to Lewis' study, over the course of the crisis, scheduled flight arrivals declined by
about two-thirds in Southeast Asia, causing a sharp drop in business at hotels, restaurants
and stores.
In Hong Kong, retail sales fell 50 percent. At the peak of the epidemic, the number of visitors
and tourists dropped 80 percent in Taiwan and nearly as much in Singapore.
- marilyng@coxnews.com