TORIES LEAD BY 8 WITH TWO WEEKS TO GO
Abacus Data poll: April 11-15, 2011, n=1,005 online survey from
representative panel of over 75,000 Canadians
VOTE INTENTIONS
FEDERAL ELECTION 2011
April 18, 2011
www.abacusdata.ca
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Abacus Data Inc. is Canada’s newest player in the public opinion and marketing research industry.
Whether it’s telephone or online surveys, focus groups, one-on-one interviews, or secondary data analysis, the
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•
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David has seven years experience listening and interpreting what voters, consumers, and opinion leaders want
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He received his PhD in Political Science from the University of Calgary where he taught Research Methods to
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Abacus Data also has a number of unique research practices.
Click on the graphics below for more information.
M
Methodology
E
T
H
O
D
Ballot Questions
The ballot question was the 4 question asked of respondents following their gender, province, and their likelihood of O
voting in the election. Responses to the questions below are merged to create our ballot variable.
L
O
Q: If a federal election were held today, which party would you vote for in your constituency? (parties listed
randomly)
G
If the respondents said they were undecided, they were asked:
Y
A
Q: We noticed you said you were undecided. Is there a party you are currently leaning towards? (parties listed
randomly)
N
For more information about the poll’s methodology, visit the Abacus website at www.abacusdata.ca
D
From April 11th to 15th, 2011, Abacus Data Inc. conducted an online survey among 1,005 randomly selected Canadian
adults from an online panel of over 75,000 Canadians.
The margin of error—which measures sampling variability—is comparable to +/- 3.2%, 19 times out of 20.
Results of the survey were statistically weighted by gender, age, region, education, and immigration status using
census data from Statistics Canada and by past vote using Elections Canada results from the 2008 General Election.
Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
th
A
The table below reports the unweighted and weighted distribution by region or province.
Region/Province
Unweighted Count
(All Respondents)
Weighted Count
(All respondents)
Atlantic Canada
82
82
Quebec
255
266
Ontario
380
366
Prairies (MB and SK)
61
64
Alberta
108
11,.1
BC
119
122
1,005
1,011
Total
B
O
U
T
A
B
A
C
U
S
D
A
T
A
Decided Voters (includes leaning voters) n=955
(Undecided = 6%)
33%
35%
38%
35%
27%
24%
21%
20%
18%
18%
10%
10%
10%
11%
10%
20%
20%
9%
8%
9%
8%
6%
Nov 2010
Dec 2010
Conservative
Jan 2011
Feb 2011
Liberal
29%
27%
25%
25%
37%
36%
5%
March 28, 2011 April 15, 2011
NDP
BQ
Green
Atlantic
Quebec
Ontario
Central
Alberta
BC
Conservative
27%
21%
40%
48%
67%
40%
Liberal
42%
23%
37%
30%
16%
25%
NDP
27%
22%
19%
15%
11%
26%
-
31%
-
-
-
-
Green
4%
4%
4%
7%
6%
9%
Unweighted counts
82
255
380
61
108
119
BQ
Men
Women
18-30
31-60
60+
Immigrants
Conservative
41%
34%
23%
38%
45%
47%
Liberal
31%
28%
28%
28%
32%
33%
NDP
17%
23%
33%
19%
13%
12%
BQ
6%
10%
8%
9%
7%
3%
Green
6%
4%
7%
5%
3%
5%
Unweighted counts
564
445
172
514
323
114
Vote Stability
Q: How likely are you to "switch" your vote before election day?
Voting Preference (including leaners)
Likeliness
to Switch
Vote
Conservative
Liberal
NDP
BQ
Green
All
decided
voters
-
1%
2%
1%
-
1%
Somewhat likely
3%
15%
13%
-
22%
9%
Somewhat
unlikely
18%
26%
30%
32%
26%
24%
Very unlikely
79%
59%
56%
67%
52%
66%
Weighted Count
358
281
192
79
46
955
Very likely
2nd Choice
Q: Which party would be your second choice?
Second
Choice
First Choice
Conservative
Liberal
NDP
BQ
Green
Total
-
11%
9%
5%
9%
6%
Liberal
12%
-
30%
9%
26%
13%
NDP
12%
51%
-
55%
38%
26%
BQ
3%
5%
11%
-
9%
5%
Green Party
12%
16%
28%
18%
-
16%
No second choice
63%
17%
23%
14%
19%
35%
Weighted count
358
281
192
79
46
955
Conservative
Why are you voting that way?
(Decided voters only, n=955)
“Good government and economic management” = 33%
“Dislike other parties” =18%
“Like platform/values align” = 16%
“Want a majority or stability” = 10%
“Dislike or don’t trust Harper” = 37%
“Like platform”/”party values align” = 25%
“Best way to defeat Conservatives” = 16%
“Like local candidate” = 6%
“Like platform”/”party values align” = 38%
“Like local candidate” = 13%
“Dislike/distrust other parties” = 13%
“Like Layton” = 12%
“Defends Quebec’s interests” = 35%
“I’m a sovereigntist” = 17%
“Party values align” = 10%
“Like local candidate” = 9%
Conservative voter…
“Because I think they have been in power for 5 years and deserve to have a
majority. I am sick and tired of the posturing on all sides. None of the leaders
are trying to work together. And I will never vote for Ignatieff. He does not
speak for me and my Canada. He left Canada when I was 5 years old...he
does not know my Canada and what we need.”
Liberal voter…
“Mr. Harper has time and time again lied and with held information from
parliament and the Canadian people, this is not what I can democracy and
something I am ashamed of in an elected official. Mr. Ignatieff is not the ideal
Liberal leader however I believe a vote for him is the best chance for beating
Mr. Harper. I am primarily someone who sides with Liberal ideals however I
would love a better Liberal leader.”
NDP voter…
Don't like Harper's disregard for the democratic process and I do not even
consider Ignatieff to be a Canadian!
Green voter…
I feel that the candidate in my riding (who happens to be the party leader) is
someone who I feel knows the needs of my riding. I agree fully with her on
her platforms and feel that she is the best choice for my vote.
BQ voter…
les conservateurs ne m'inspire pas confiance , le NPD c'est trop ailleur , les
libéreaux même au québec je suis tané des voir donc le bloc est le seul qui
peut deffendre le québec au fédéral
For more information about this study or Abacus Data Inc.,
please contact:
David Coletto, PhD
Chief Executive Officer
(613) 232-2806 x. 248
david@abacusdata.ca
Twitter.com/ColettoD
To read our analyses and blog, find us online at www.abacusdata.ca