January 18, 2006
SES Daily Election Update
Conservatives Maintain Lead
FIRST RANKED BALLOT (N=1,200 Canadians, 1,010 decided voters)
45%
40%
37%
37%
35%
30%
32%
29%
25%
20%
15%
18%
15%
14%
10%
10%
5%
5%
4%
Undeci
J11 ded:
J13
J15
21%
0%
D01
D03
D05
D07
D09
D11
D13
D15
BQ
D17
CP
D19
D21
NDP
D23
Liberal
D29
J03
J05
J07
J09
Green
J17
REGIONAL BALLOTS
Canada
Atlantic Canada
Quebec
Ontario
Western Canada
Jan 16
Jan 17
Jan 16
Jan 17
Jan 16
Jan 17
Jan 16
Jan 17
Jan 16
Jan 17
%
%
%
%
%
%
%
%
%
%
Conservative
37
36.9
39
44
22
23
38
40
45
41
Liberal
30
31.5
35
38
20
20
38
39
30
31
NDP
18
17.6
26
17
12
12
20
15
19
24
BQ
10
10.0
-
-
44
41
-
-
-
-
Green
4
4.0
-
1
3
4
4
5
6
5
Accuracy
+ 3.1%
+ 3.1%
+ 9.9%
+ 9.7%
+ 6.5%
+ 6.4%
+ 5.8%
+ 5.7%
+ 5.2%
+ 5.3%
Undecided
16
15.9
14
12
21
20
16
14
12
16
Media inquiries should be directed to: Nikita James Nanos at nnanos@sesresearch.com or (613) 234-4666 x237. Visit the SES website to sign up for instant
email updates. For a detailed explanation on the methodology, please refer to page 5 of this release.
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January 18, 2006
SES Daily Election Update
Ontario: Conservatives and Liberals Neck-and-neck
ATLANTIC CANADA (Decided Voters, Accuracy ±10)
QUEBEC (Decided Voters, Accuracy ±6)
60%
60%
49%
50%
50%
50%
44%
40%
38%
41%
40%
30%
31%
30%
30%
20% 18%
20%
23%
20%
17%
10%
10%
6%
1%
1%
0%
D01
D04
D08
D12
CP
D16
D20
NDP
D23
D30
J05
Liberal
J09
J13
4%
0%
J17
D01
D04
Green
D12
D16
CP
D20
D23
NDP
D30
J05
J09
Liberal
J13
J17
Green
WESTERN CANADA (Decided Voters, Accuracy ±5)
50%
50%
45%
45%
43%
40%
39%
41%
41%
40%
35% 33%
35% 32%
30%
30%
25%
25%
20% 18%
20%
31%
24%
20%
15%
15%
10%
D08
BQ
ONTARIO (Decided Voters, Accuracy ±6)
40%
12%
9%
15%
10% 7%
5%
5%
5%
0%
5%
5%
0%
D01
D04
D08
D12
CP
D16
NDP
D20
D23
D30
Liberal
J05
J09
Green
J13
J17
D01
D04
D08
D12
CP
D16
NDP
D20
D23
D30
Liberal
J05
J09
J13
J17
Green
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January 18, 2006
SES Daily Election Update
Performance Index: Harper and Layton Do Well on Trust
110
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
84
75
58
64
57
39
25
19
9
8
D01
D03
D05
D07
D09
D11
D13
D15
D17
Duceppe
D19
D21
Harper
Layton
D23
D29
Martin
J03
J05
J07
J09
J11
J13
J15
J17
Harris
LEADERSHIP INDICATORS
Trust
Competence
Vision for Canada
Jan 16
Jan 17
Jan 16
Jan 17
Jan 16
Jan 17
%
%
%
%
%
%
Paul Martin
18
16
27
26
28
Stephen Harper
21
24
22
25
Gilles Duceppe
10
8
10
Jack Layton
19
24
Jim Harris
3
None of them
Leadership Index Score
Jan 16
Jan 17
22
73
64
25
26
68
75
7
4
4
24
19
13
14
16
19
48
57
3
2
2
3
4
8
9
13
14
8
10
10
9
31
33
Undecided
16
12
18
16
15
15
49
43
Accuracy
+ 5.0%
+ 5.0%
+ 5.0%
+ 5.0%
+ 5.0%
+ 5.0%
Media inquiries should be directed to: Nikita James Nanos at nnanos@sesresearch.com or (613) 234-4666. Visit the SES website to sign up for instant email
updates. For a detailed explanation on the methodology, please refer to page 5 of this release.
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January 18, 2006
SES Daily Election Update
Layton Improving His Best PM Score
BEST PRIME MINISTER (N=1,200 Canadians)
35%
30% 29%
28%
25%
25%
21%
20%
17%
15% 14%
18%
15%
10% 12%
5%
6%
8%
2%
4%
2%
0%
D01
D03
D05
D07
D09
Duceppe
D11
D13
Harper
D15
D17
Layton
D19
D21
D23
D29
Martin
J03
J05
Harris
J07
J09
Unsure
J11
J13
J15
J17
None
REGIONAL NUMBERS
Canada
Atlantic Canada
Quebec
Ontario
Western Canada
Jan 16
Jan 17
Jan 16
Jan 17
Jan 16
Jan 17
Jan 16
Jan 17
Jan 16
Jan 17
%
%
%
%
%
%
%
%
%
%
Harper
29
28
24
26
26
24
26
28
35
31
Martin
25
25
29
31
20
19
30
30
24
23
Duceppe
5
4
-
-
13
13
3
1
4
2
Layton
16
18
20
19
13
16
17
16
16
20
Harris
1
2
-
-
1
1
1
2
2
3
None
8
8
5
4
10
9
8
8
8
9
Undecided
15
15
21
20
18
18
16
15
11
11
Accuracy
+ 2.9%
+ 2.9%
+ 9.2%
+ 9.2%
+ 5.8%
+ 5.8%
+ 5.3%
+ 5.3%
+ 4.9%
+ 4.9%
Media inquiries should be directed to: Nikita James Nanos at nnanos@sesresearch.com or (613) 234-4666 x237. Visit the SES website to sign up for instant
email updates. For a detailed explanation on the methodology, please refer to page 5 of this release.
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SES Daily Election Update
January 18, 2006
METHODOLOGY
CPAC Questions
1.
2.
If a FEDERAL election were held today, could you please rank your top two current local voting preferences? (First ranked reported)
Are you currently leaning towards any particular FEDERAL party, and if you are, which party would that be?
Currently (rotate), Paul Martin is the leader of the federal Liberal Party, Stephen Harper is the leader of the Conservative Party of Canada, Jack Layton
is the leader of the federal NDP, Gilles Duceppe is leader of the Bloc Quebecois and Jim Harris is leader of the federal Green Party.
3. Which of the federal leaders would you best describe as the most trustworthy leader?
4. Which of the federal leaders would you best describe as the most competent leader?
5.
6.
Which of the federal leaders would you best describe as the leader with the best vision for Canada?
Based on what you know about the federal party leaders and their performance during the election campaign up until today, who do you think
would make the best Prime Minister?
Methodology
A national random telephone survey is conducted nightly by SES Research throughout the campaign. Each evening a new group of 400 eligible voters are
interviewed. The daily tracking figures are based on a three-day rolling sample comprised of 1,200 interviews. To update the tracking a new day of
interviewing is added and the oldest day dropped. The margin of accuracy is ±2.9%, 19 times out of 20.
The respondent sample is stratified geographically and by gender. The data may be weighted by age according to data from the 2001 Canadian Census
administered by Statistics Canada. Percentages reported may not add up to 100 due to rounding. The research has been registered with the Marketing
Research and Intelligence Association of which SES is a member.
Leadership Index Score Methodology
Every day, SES will report on a daily leadership index score. The leadership index score is a summation of the three leadership indicators (trustworthy, competence,
th
vision). For example, on November 30 (N30), Jim Harris received a Leadership Index Score of 5 because 2% of Canadians identified Jim Harris as the most
trustworthy leader, 1% said he was the most competent and 2% said he had the best vision for Canada.
The Leadership Index Score will be tracked daily with updated results from the previous night of polling. Unlike the other measures tracked by SES, the
leadership index score will not be based on a three-day rolling sample. It will be reported from results the evening before. This will allow SES to measure
the performance of the federal party leaders and the key factors driving performance on a daily basis.
About SES
Established in 1987, SES Research is a full service public opinion research and management consulting firm. For more information on our full range of
services please visit our website www.sesresearch.com.
Media inquiries should be directed to:
Nikita James Nanos
President and CEO
SES Research
nnanos@sesresearch.com
(613) 234-4666 ext. 237
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