June 24, 2004
SES Daily Election Update
Liberals Ahead; Layton as Best PM Picks Up
ELECTION TRACKING
J BALLOT (rank 1 - decided only)
40%
Questions
41%
30% 28%
21% (+3)
12% (+1)
CP
GP
NDP
LP
3% (0)
UND M25 – 21%
UND J23 – 20%
M2
5
26
27
28
29
30
31
J1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
20% 18%
11%
10%
3%
0%
34% (-7)
30% (+2)
BQ
J APPETITE FOR CHANGE
60%
52%
56% (+4)
50%
Change
40%
30%
24% (-4)
20%
10%
Unsure
28%
11%
10%
11% (0)
8% (-2)
Good
job
Neither
0%
ded:
Methodology
21%
The daily tracking figures are based on a three day
rolling sample comprised of 600 interviews. A national
random telephone survey is conducted nightly by SES
Research throughout the campaign. Each evening 200
voters are interviewed. To update the tracking a new
day of interviewing is added and the oldest day dropped.
The margin of accuracy for the rolling sample of 600
voters is ±4.1%, 19 times out of 20. The research was
registered with the Canadian Survey Research council of
which SES is a member.
On June 23nd, the margin of accuracy is +3.1% due to an
increase in the three day sample size (N=1,000). The
nightly sample is doubled on June 22, 23 and 24.
M2
5
26
27
28
29
30
31
J1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
Ducep
28% (-3)
22% (-2)
20% (+3)
Harper
13% (+4)
11% (-5)
Martin
5% (+2)
Layton
Unsure
Established in 1987, SES Canada Research Inc. is a full
service public opinion research and management
consulting firm. For more information on our full range
of services please visit our website
www.sesresearch.com . Media inquiries should be
directed to:
Mr. Nikita Nanos at (613) 234-4666 ext.237 or
nnanos@sesresearch.com
None
M2
5
26
27
28
29
30
31
J1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
20% 17%
16%
10% 9%
3%
0%
Based on what you know about the federal party leaders and
their performance during the election campaign up until
today, who do you think would make theUndeci
best Prime Minister.
About SES
31%
24%
Some people think that the Liberals have done a good job
running the country and that Paul Martin would be a strong
Prime Minister. Others think that the Liberals have been in
power too long and that it’s time for a change. Which of these
two opinions best reflects your views?
M25 on the charts reflect the findings of a national SES
poll completed on May 25, 2004. Percentages may not
add up to 100 due to rounding.
J BEST PRIME MINISTER
30%
If a FEDERAL election were held today, could you please
rank your top two current local voting preferences.
1