The Fully
Networked Car
Trends in Car
Communication
Geneva
March 2, 2005
Is The Connected Car Really A Major Business
Opportunity?
2
Are We Flushing Money Away Having
No Convincing Customer Benefits?
3
Or Is It True That Services / Content
Are Aligning With Customer Needs?
4
A Lot Of Questions Remain Open …
DEMAND
•Consumers’ unwillingness
to pay – hardware cost
and subscription cost
•Closed system locking
content and service
provider choice
•Inability to port
consumer electronics
experience to the car
environment
•Lack of killer applications
•Privacy issues
SUPPLY
•Cost of service mostly
exceeding revenue
•No convincing business
model
•Reluctance of telcos to
engage
•OEMs trend to reduce
electronic content
•Question as to whether
telematics is a source of
competitive advantage
•Can we control the
vehicle architecture?
5
Anyway It Goes, Car Electronics Will
Grow Driven By Safety & Comfort
Automotive ECUs Market
(2003-2008)
ECU Market
2003-08 CAGR:
8.7%
2003 Electronic Control Units Market
($ Billion)
Average Industry Growth : 3.6%
Engine & Drive Train
12.0
Entertainment &
Communication
10.0
8.0
Interior
6.0
Security
Safety
4.0
2008 ECUs market Size
($5B)
2.0
0.0
0.0%
NB: Bubble size proportional to 2008 projected revenue
Source: Strategy Analytics, Magna, CTA Consulting Analysis
Chassis & Body
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
Electronic Systems Growth
(2003-08)
6
As Much As 40% Of The Car Content
Will Be EE Within 5 Years
An increase of
$50B in EE
systems
between 2004
and 2010
E/E
0%
2004
[30%]
2009
[39%]
Changes between 2005 and 2015:
Market growth: 6.5% CAAGR
EE systems content: from $2,500 to
$4,800
Non-E/E
Proportion of vehicle content
100%
Source: Mercer
7
Demand Numbers Confirm The Trend
Sample Connected Cars Features: Consumer wants v. Penetration
Demand
Adaptive Cruise Control
63%
Tire pressure Monitoring
Features
Customers
definitely /
probably want
79%
44%
Satellite Radio
Stability Control
75%
Navigation Systems
62%
Supply
Adaptive Cruise Control
1%
Tire pressure Monitoring
2004 Feature
Penetration
Satellite Radio
13%
Stability Control
Navigation Systems
Gap = Opportunity
7%
11%
3%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Percentage Respondents
Source: JD Power Survey
8
Are We Heading Towards A Major
Crisis In Vehicle Electronics?
9
Electronic Integration: The bitter sweet!
OEMs: Limit integration for components
scale benefit & increase competition
Telematics
Platform
Interactive Telematics Services
… fully integrated
OnBoard computer
Palm / PDA Plug & Play
Telephone … fixed installation
Individual
Individualanalog
analogfeatures
features
Individual
Individualdigital
digitalfeatures
features
Infotainment
Solution
Multi--Media System
Multi
… mobile
… hands -free
Integrated Navigation Radio
Real-time Traffic Info
Navigation
Individual
Individualanalog
analogsystems
systems
Digital
Digitalsystems
systems
… onon- Board
… DVD
… offoff - Board
Digital
Core
MP3 Player
CD Player
… CD Changer
Cassette Player
Auto Radio
… RDS
Audio
System
Digital / Satellite Radio
… PTY
Video/TV
… DVD
Rear Seat
Entertainment
Time
Suppliers: Upintegrate to increase
Source: Booz Allen Hamilton,
CTA Consulting
content & drive cost down
10
User Interface: Is The Consumer
Bound For Pilot Training?
11
Dealing With Complexity = Redefine
Architecture – Particularly Communication
EE Systems
Value Chain
Who?
Value-add?
• Vehicle Manufacturer
• Architecture suppliers /
wiring suppliers
• Engineering Services
• Architecture design
• System integration &
validation
• System suppliers
• System engineering
houses
• Engineering services,
system integration &
validation
• Functional software
Vehicle System
Design & Integration
Functional System
Design & Integration
(Autosar)
Components Design
(ECUs)
Silicon
• Traditional automotive
component suppliers
• EMS
• Component design &
manufacture
• Operating System
• µ-processor suppliers
• µ-processors / ASICs
/ µp design
• Fabs / micromachining
Architecture design
complexity induced
by feature richness
and integration
requirements
Growing number
of “multipurpose” upintegrated ECUs
with ever growing
feature content
Communication Architecture
Automotive EE Value Chain: Roles & responsibilities
12
A New Architecture Paradigm Is Needed
• Standardize for flexibility & scale
• Partition & integrate
• Leverage communication technologies
• Think lifecycle management
• Implement a holistic Vehicle Communication
13
Shift The Proprietary Approach Paradigm
To Open Standard Architecture
• Holistic approach
• Open Hardware Architecture with standardized internal
interfaces
• Open Software Architecture with standardized APIs
• Customer value-add focused
• Forward looking
• Recognizing differences between vehicle-centric and
consumer-centric functions
14
Partition Features Along Vehicle-centric
& Customer-centric Features
•
•
•
•
Safety
Emergency calls
Remote distance warning / traffic signals recognition
Lane departure warning
Adaptive cruise control
Entertainment
•
•
•
•
Audio
Video
Games
Internet access
Information
•
•
•
•
Information channels access
Parking information
Stock market
Flight information
Productivity
Mobility
• E-mail access
• PDA synchronization
• Virtual assistant
•
•
•
•
•
CRM
•
•
•
•
Car owner identification (at dealer)
Pattern of use tracking
Personalized communication
Theft control
VRM
• Remote diagnostics & maintenance
• Software downloads
• Real time warranty information
access
Emergency call
Real time traffic information
Automated routing
Remote unlock
LBS / Point Of Interest information
Consumer–centric
Vehicle-centric
Machine to Human
Machine to Machine
HMI focus
Back-end processes integration
Consumer value-add
Service improvement
15
Effective Bandwidth
Communication Technologies
Network Characteristics
(Effective Bandwidth,
Coverage, Cost)
• Diagnostic & Data
WLAN, 802.11x
MOST
• Software Downloads
X
Mission Requirements
Flex
Ray
=
Communication choice
1Mb
/sec
• Off-board Navigation
EDGE
Bluetooth
CAN
• Accident/Traffic Data
GPRS
WUSB
GSM, CDMA
Zigbee
700-900 MHz
In-Vehicle
10m
Satellite: LEO, Galileo, GPS, etc.
Local
Wide
50m
• RTT
• Location
Wired
Wireless
Range
16
Deploy Software Based Communication
For Life Cycle Management Purpose
• Current state:
– Chipset based embedded equipment supports single communication
technology for life of product
• Challenge:
– Many foreseen and unforeseen development directions (E.g. possibility of
satellite-based GSM to provide coverage in rural areas, Wimax, 5.9 GHz
WAVE)
• Future state:
– Implement a fully updatable software-based communication module
– Integrate into other vehicle electronics (e.g., navigation product, head unit)
and connected to the in-vehicle network
– Software controlled antenna controlled by software filters, providing the
ability (within reason) to accommodate changes in frequency across the
primary communications bands
17
Implement an Architecture for Vehicle
Communication Management
Wi-Fi
GPS
SDARS
Remote
Buttons
Gateway
Processor
GSM/GPRS
or
CDMA/1x
Audio In / Out
Head
Unit
Vehicle
Messages
(airbag, diagnostics, …)
Vehicle Network
(MOST / CAN)
Power
Supply
Bluetooth
System Memory
18
Changing The Paradigm = Getting Focused
On Consumer Value-add
• Automotive electronics complexity creep will not subside
– Safety: functions for which consumers are ready to pay
– Entertainment: Digital lifestyle ubiquity
• The historical proprietary architecture approach is a hurdle to handle
the increasing electronics complexity
• We need to change paradigm & streamline the car communication
architecture
–
–
–
–
–
Standardize mechanisms for flexibility
Partition
Leverage communication technologies
Think life cycle management
Implement gateway
• Once done, the industry will be able to focus on consumer value-add
rather than the never ending integration challenges
19