The Use of a Sustainable Livelihoods Approach in
Evaluating Community‐Based Early Warning Systems
Colette Karakashian (colettekarakashian@hotmail.com) Supervisor – John Twigg
Evaluating Early Warning Systems A Research Gap
Sustainable Early Warning Systems Framework
The effectiveness of an early warning system is strongly determined by the extent to which it is people‐centred and whether it is end‐to‐end so that it truly reflects and engages with the needs of those affected and most at‐risk at all stages in the process of early warning (UN, 2006). However, in recent years there has been limited progress in the development of end‐to‐end early warning systems because their premise has been narrowly interpreted with an overemphasis on the technical and scientific components of a system (UNISDR, 2005). This has been to the detriment of the social components of a system such as the formulation and communication of appropriate warnings and the preparedness or capacity of a community to act upon a warning and is referred to in literature as a failure to go ‘the last mile’ (Twigg, 2006). Thus there appears to exist a need to reconcile the difference between what is understood to constitute an effective early warning system and the actualities in creating and sustaining such as a system in the real world. There are very few well‐documented case studies that outline in detail the reasons why a particular early warning system is effective. Without the documentation of good and bad practice it becomes increasingly difficult to progress the field of research and ascertain whether concepts and ideas translate effectively in real life situations. Thus there exists a gap in academic and practitioner’s literature for case studies that better document how and why different early warning systems are effective and the evaluative methods and tools used to determine this. Case Study
Santa Eulalia, Baao in the Philippines A community‐based early warning system for floods and typhoons in Santa Eulalia has been operational since early 2009. The system is designed to provide three distinct levels of warning determined either by the height of the flood water or degree of danger posed by an approaching typhoon. Each warning level is associated with a specific colour or signal when disseminated to community members, which in turn represent specific actions that should be taken in response to the warning. The system is simple in design, cost‐
free to operate and inclusive.
Left ‐ Location of Municipality of Baao in Camarines Sur
A cascade of early warning sub‐systems are embedded within the broader context of disaster risk management and reduction strategies in a community and held together by the community actors and stakeholders and the communication system.
Below ‐ Location of Camarines Sur in the Philippines
Santa Eulalia is at‐risk from localized floods and typhoons as a result of its location and the poor socio‐economic circumstances of the community. There exists a justifiable need for a community‐
based early warning system to improve resilience against floods and typhoons and transform the vulnerability of the community. Examples of Analysis
Deconstruction of the Monitoring Assets Deconstruction of the Forecasting Assets •Difficult to take into account rainfall activity in entire basin when make forecasts
•Flood marker at Bertillo Creek strategically placed at trigger source of flooding
•Environment does not always provide an accurate indication of impending hazard
•Flood markers provide physical presence of monitoring
NATURAL
•Reliant on BDCC to provide organization structure of monitoring network
PHYSICAL
•Equipment required to operate is minimal and easy to use and interpret
•No financial input required during procurement, installation, operation and maintenance
NATURAL
PHYSICAL
SOCIAL
FINANCIAL
•Identification of Bertillo Creek as trigger source
•Lack of hydro‐
meteorological and hydrodynamic modeling and equipment for basin‐wide forecasts
HUMAN
•Training on operation of monitoring instruments provides to BDCC members
•Minimal training required •Utilizes local knowledge
•Flood markers only sufficient for making forecasts of very localized flooding –
reliant on external information
The framework is a conceptual representation of the way in which an early warning system is able to modify the resilience of an at‐risk community against external shocks and is a reinterpretation of the Sustainable Livelihoods Framework (DFID 1999; Twigg, 2007). Vulnerability Context ‐ defines the need for an early warning system and justifies its introduction to a community
SOCIAL
FINANCIAL
•No financial input to make forecasts using flood markers but need access to mobile phone, television or radio to gather external information
•Forecast decisions made by BDCC members
Components/Assets ‐ the early warning system is ‘assembled’ of components. Each component is one of the early warning sub‐systems. Each component is made up of community assets ‐ natural, physical, social, human and financial HUMAN
•Appropriate understanding that the community is affected by events that occur external to the Barangay Transforming Structures and Processes ‐ all the components come together to form the complete structure
of the early warning system
Local Coping Strategies and Outcomes ‐ the system should, if effective, alter the vulnerability context of the community and instigate local coping strategies that allow people to better withstand the impact of a hazard. This will decrease the loss of assets in the community, which will in turn allow for further development.
Conclusion ‐ As a concept the Sustainable Early Warning Systems Framework was successful in its ability to evaluate the effectiveness of the early warning system in Santa Eulalia. However, further work needs to be done on the way in which evaluations are presented as useable and accessible documents. One of the principal difficulties encountered was how to visualize the concept of resilience and effectiveness without the paper becoming overly complicated or abstract.
Early warning system signals signboard
Flood Marker in Zone 2 Hazard map of the Santa Eulalia
Flooding in Santa Eulalia, February 2008 Warning Bell located in Elementary School