Impact
Evaluation
considerations
for NonTraditional ODA
Immaculate Dadiso Motsi
Non-Traditional ODA
Official
Development
Assistance
Traditional Sources
Non –Traditional
Sources
Case : China’s
mining
investment in
the DRC
China in Africa
The Deal
Barter - Infrastructure for Minerals
Quid Pro Quo
DRC - $6bn worth of roads, railways,
hospitals, universities
CHINA - 10million tonnes of copper
and 400,000 tonnes of cobalt
Key Assumption
GOAL
OUTCOME
Improving
Rate & Quality
of Economic
Growth
Improved
Infrastructure
ACTIVITIES
OUTPUTS
New roads,
universities
etc; Less
Minerals
Building new
infrastructure
INPUTS
Chinese Money &
Labor
Thesis
1. Non-Traditional ODA needs to be
subjected to rigorous M &E
2. Traditional M & E techniques are
not effectively applicable to nontraditional ODA (evaluation gap)
3. Traditional M & E can and should
be adapted to be effectively
applicable to non-traditional ODA
(1)
Non-Traditional
ODA needs to be
Monitored &
Evaluated
Insufficiency of current Congolese
Feasibility Study (not the same as
ex ante Evaluation)
Social Impact implicit in the goal of
improved rate and quality of
economic growth
Future ‘barter deals’ specifically &
Non-Traditional ODA generally
(2)
Traditional M&E
is not effectively
suitable to NonTraditional ODA
Complexities
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Time value of money
Fluctuating commodity prices
Political uncertainty
Volume of extractible minerals available
Scale (national level)
No precedent or Counter-Factual
No transparency on certain aspects of
the deal
• Long-Term impact horizon
GOAL
OUTCOME
Improving
Rate & Quality
of Economic
Growth
Improved Rate
& Quality of
Economic
Growth
ACTIVITIES
OUTPUTS
Building new
infrastructure;
Extracting
more minerals
New roads,
universities
etc;
Less Minerals
INPUTS
BENEFITS
Chinese Money &
Labor;
Congolese
Minerals
COST
• Implicit assumption = intervention
will lead to development
objectives
• Non-Traditional ODA =
fundamentally a business
transaction
• Assumptive mismatch =
Traditional M & E underemphasizes costs in the pursuit
of establishing benefits
(3)
Traditional M&E
can and should
be adapted to
Non-Traditional
ODA
Adaptation
• Incorporation of Cost – Benefit
Analysis Methodology
• Active pursuit of negative
externalities
• Make open-ended policy
recommendations (best practice
given degree of complexity)
-The End-