The NAFTA Promise and the
North American Reality
The Gap and How to Narrow It
By Frank Graves, Robert Pastor and Miguel Basáñez
Presentation to the Center for North American Studies (CNAS)
& the Institutions, Law and Security Center (ILSC)
October 31, 2013
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Outline
1. Methodology
2. Reciprocal Images and Willingness to Trade
3. A Dramatically Altered Economic Outlook
4. Borders and Security: A Changing Mix
5. North Americans Give Preference to North America
on Trade Policy over Asia and Europe
6. All Three Countries Prefer Trilateral Cooperation on
Domestic and Transnational Issues over that of
Developing Independent Policies
7. Conclusions
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1. Methodology
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Methodology
This research involved three separate surveys conducted in the
United States, Mexico, and Canada:
• United States: This survey was conducted using Knowledge
Networks’ probability-based online panel, KnowledgePanel. In
total, 1,600 U.S. residents ages 18 and over (including an
oversample in states bordering Canada and Mexico)
responded to the survey. The margin of error is +/- 2.5
percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
• Canada: This survey was conducted using EKOS’ probability-
based, hybrid online/telephone research panel, Probit. In total,
1,505 Canadian residents ages 18 and over responded to the
survey (1,200 online, 305 by phone). The margin of error is +/2.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
• Mexico: This survey involved face-to-face interviews with a
random sample of 1,320 Mexican residents ages 18 and over
(including an oversample in states along the U.S. border). The
margin of error is +/- 2.7 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
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2. Reciprocal Images and
Willingness to Trade
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Reciprocal Images and Willingness to Trade
» How do we see each other?
• All three publics have very positive views of each other,
although American favorable views of Mexico have
declined lately
• U.S. views of Mexico have historically been favorable,
although they have become somewhat less so over the
past few years, perhaps due to drug-related violence (1)
» Where do we identify?
• U.S. and Canada strongly nationalist, Mexico more local
(like Europe)
» Canada and Mexico score fairly well in terms of basic
knowledge, but United States overestimates importance of
Asia and underestimates importance of North America
(1)Beginning in 1974. The Chicago Council on global affairs conducted surveys of the opinions of Americans towards the world every
two to four years. For more details, see Pastor, Robert, “The North American idea a vision of a continental future”, pp. 60. Oxford
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New York: Oxford University Press, USA, 2011. Print.
Copyright 2013. No reproduction without permission.
Reciprocal images
Q. In general, would you describe your opinion of the United States / Canada /
Mexico as favorable or unfavorable?
American views of…
Canada
Mexico
Canadian views of…
The United States
Mexico
Mexican views of…
The United States
Canada
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BASE: October 2013, US (n=1,600); Canada (n=1,505); Mexico (n=1,320)
Copyright 2013. No reproduction without permission.
Support for free trade agreements
Q. Please rate the extent to which you agree or disagree with the following
statement:
There should be free trade between the U.S., Canada and Mexico
There should be free trade between the U.S. and Canada
There should be free trade between Mexico and the U.S.
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BASE: October 2013, US (n=1,600); Canada (n=1,505); Mexico (n=1,320)
Copyright 2013. No reproduction without permission.
Tracking support for trilateral trade
Q. Please rate the extent to which you agree or disagree with the following
statement: There should be free trade between the U.S., Canada and Mexico
100
% who AGREE
80%
74%
65%
80
60
40
20
0
1983
1986
1989
1992
1995
1998
2001
2004
2007
2010
2013
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BASE: October 2013, US (n=1,600); Canada (n=1,505); Mexico (n=1,320)
Copyright 2013. No reproduction without permission.
Tracking support for U.S.-Canada trade:
Q. Please rate the extent to which you agree or disagree with the following
statement: There should be free trade between the U.S. and Canada
100
% who AGREE
90
79%
78%
80
70
60
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
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BASE: October 2013, US (n=1,600); Canada (n=1,505); Mexico (n=1,320)
Copyright 2013. No reproduction without permission.
Tracking support for U.S.-Mexico trade:
Q. Please rate the extent to which you agree or disagree with the following
statement: There should be free trade between Mexico and the U.S.
100
% who AGREE
90
80
72%
70
60
50
40
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
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BASE: October 2013, US (n=1,600); Canada (n=1,505); Mexico (n=1,320)
Copyright 2013. No reproduction without permission.
Personal sense of belonging
Q. To which of these groups would you say you belong to first and foremost?
Country
State/Province
Town/Locality
The world
North America
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BASE: October 2013, US (n=1,600); Canada (n=1,505); Mexico (n=1,320)
Copyright 2013. No reproduction without permission.
Tracking personal sense of belonging: U.S.
Q. To which of these groups would you say you belong to first and foremost?
60
50
41%
40
30
20
17%
13%
10%
4%
10
0
81
83
85
87
North America
89
91
93
95
97
99
The world
01
Town
03
05
07
State
09
11
13
Country
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BASE: October 2013, US (n=1,600); Canada (n=1,505); Mexico (n=1,320)
Copyright 2013. No reproduction without permission.
Tracking personal sense of belonging: Canada
Q. To which of these groups would you say you belong to first and foremost?
50
44%
40
30
26%
20
14%
12%
10
3%
0
81
83
85
87
North America
89
91
93
95
The world
97
99
01
Town
03
05
07
Province
09
11
13
Country
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BASE: October 2013, US (n=1,600); Canada (n=1,505); Mexico (n=1,320)
Copyright 2013. No reproduction without permission.
Top 10 largest trading partners
Q. Which two countries have been the most important markets for U.S. / Canadian
/ Mexican exports over the last few years?
41%
China
82%
United States
83%
United States
14%
Japan
50%
China
38%
China
13%
Mexico
12%
Mexico
23%
Canada
10%
Canada
5%
United Kingdom
22%
Japan
6%
European Union
5%
European Union
7%
Brazil
5%
India
3%
Japan
6%
Spain
2%
Brazil
2%
France
3%
France
2%
Russia
2%
Brazil
3%
European Union
1%
Taiwan
1%
India
2%
Germany
1%
Korea/South Korea
1%
Russia
2%
Guatemala
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BASE: October 2013, US (n=1,600); Canada (n=1,505); Mexico (n=1,320)
Copyright 2013. No reproduction without permission.
Knowledge of various trade blocs
Q. Do you know the difference between a free trade area, a customs union, and
a common market?
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BASE: October 2013, US (n=1,600); Canada (n=1,505); Mexico (n=1,320)
Copyright 2013. No reproduction without permission.
3. A Dramatically Altered Economic
Outlook
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A dramatically altered economic outlook
» A darkening outlook (Canada and the United
States)
» Sense of stagnation, perhaps decline (Canada and
the United States)
» Canada dark about future / America bleak
» Shrinking middle class in the United States and
Canada
» Can a more active pursuit of the North American
agenda expand the middle class?
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Perceived changes in quality of life
Q. Thinking about your overall quality of life, would you say that you are better
off, worse off, or about the same as the previous generation was 25 years
ago?
Q. Thinking about your overall quality of life do you think the next generation
will be better off, worse off, or about the same as you are 25 years from
now?
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BASE: October 2013, US (n=1,600); Canada (n=1,505); Mexico (n=1,320)
Copyright 2013. No reproduction without permission.
Self-rated social class
Q. Would you describe you and your household as poor, working class, middle
class, or upper class?
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BASE: October 2013, US (n=1,600); Canada (n=1,505); Mexico (n=1,320)
Copyright 2013. No reproduction without permission.
Tracking self-rated social class: U.S.
Q. Would you describe you and your household as poor, working class, middle
class, or upper class?
70
60
50
46%
40
33%
30
20
10
9%
3%
0
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Poor
W orking class
Middle class
Upper class
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BASE: October 2013, US (n=1,600); Canada (n=1,505); Mexico (n=1,320)
Copyright 2013. No reproduction without permission.
Tracking self-rated social class: Canada
Q. Would you describe you and your household as poor, working class, middle
class, or upper class?
70
62%
60
50
40
30
26%
20
10
7%
5%
0
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Poor
W orking class
Middle class
Upper class
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BASE: October 2013, US (n=1,600); Canada (n=1,505); Mexico (n=1,320)
Copyright 2013. No reproduction without permission.
4. Borders and Security:
A Changing Mix
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Borders and security: a changing mix
» Security is still important in the United States, but it
has declined over the last decade
» Mexico is now much more concerned about
freedom of movement
• This has vaulted to top border concern
» Canada no longer focuses on security
» U.S. supports common border policies to both
Canada and Mexico
» All three countries now support a common security
perimeter, particularly Mexico
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Most important border consideration
Q. In discussions about the U.S.-Canada border, which of the following
do you think should be the most important consideration?
Q. In discussions about the Mexico-U.S. border, which of the following
do you think should be the most important consideration?
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BASE: October 2013, US (n=1,600); Canada (n=1,505); Mexico (n=1,320)
Copyright 2013. No reproduction without permission.
Tracking most important border consideration: U.S.
Q. In discussions about the U.S.-Canada border, which of the following do you
think should be the most important consideration?
70
60
50
46%
40
30
20
15%
15%
6%
10
0
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Security & safety
National sov. & identity
Freedom of mvmt.
Eco. advantage
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BASE: October 2013, US (n=1,600); Canada (n=1,505); Mexico (n=1,320)
Copyright 2013. No reproduction without permission.
Tracking most important border consideration: Canada
Q. In discussions about the Canada-U.S. border, which of the following do you
think should be the most important consideration?
60
50
40
30%
26%
24%
18%
30
20
10
0
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Security & safety
National sov. & identity
Freedom of mvmt.
Eco. advantage
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BASE: October 2013, US (n=1,600); Canada (n=1,505); Mexico (n=1,320)
Copyright 2013. No reproduction without permission.
Tracking most important border consideration: Mexico
Q. In discussions about the Mexico-U.S. border, which of the following do you think
should be the most important consideration?
50
45%
40
30
25%
23%
20
10
5%
0
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Security & safety
National sov. & identity
Freedom of mvmt.
Eco. advantage
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BASE: October 2013, US (n=1,600); Canada (n=1,505); Mexico (n=1,320)
Copyright 2013. No reproduction without permission.
U.S. support for common border policies
Q. Do you think the U.S. border would work better with a common set of policies
and procedures toward both Canada and Mexico?
27
43
Yes
No
DK/NR
30
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BASE: October 2013, US (n=1,600); Canada (n=1,505); Mexico (n=1,320)
Copyright 2013. No reproduction without permission.
Support for common security perimeter
Q. Given recent events would you support or oppose the United States, Canada,
and Mexico establishing a common security perimeter (i.e., around all of North
America)?
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BASE: October 2013, US (n=1,600); Canada (n=1,505); Mexico (n=1,320)
Copyright 2013. No reproduction without permission.
Tracking support for security perimeter: U.S.
Q. Given recent events would you support or oppose the United States, Canada,
and Mexico establishing a common security perimeter (i.e., around all of North
America)?
80
60
40
41%
20
26%
20%
0
2003
2004
2005
2006
Oppose (1-3)
2007
2008
2009
Neither (4)
BASE: October 2013, US (n=1,600); Canada (n=1,505); Mexico (n=1,320)
2010
2011
2012
2013
Support (5-7)
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Tracking support for security perimeter: Canada
Q. Given recent events would you support or oppose Canada, the United States
and Mexico establishing a common security perimeter (i.e., around all of North
America)?
80
60
40
43%
35%
20
19%
0
2003
2004
2005
2006
Oppose (1-3)
2007
2008
2009
Neither (4)
BASE: October 2013, US (n=1,600); Canada (n=1,505); Mexico (n=1,320)
2010
2011
2012
2013
Support (5-7)
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5. North Americans Give Preference to
North America over Asia and Europe
for Both Tactical and Strategic Reasons
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Preferred trading partner
Q. To which of the following partners do you believe the United
States/Canada/Mexico should be giving highest priority in negotiating freer
trade agreements?
North America
The European Union
China
India
None of the above
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BASE: October 2013, US (n=1,600); Canada (n=1,505); Mexico (n=1,320)
Copyright 2013. No reproduction without permission.
Using integration to remain competitive
Q. Please rate the extent to which you agree or disagree with the following
statement: In order to remain competitive with rising economic regions
(including Asia and Europe), the United States, Canada and Mexico should more
closely to collaborate on unifying their policies in dealing with these regions.
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BASE: October 2013, US (n=1,600); Canada (n=1,505); Mexico (n=1,320)
Copyright 2013. No reproduction without permission.
6. North Americans Prefer
Trilateral Collaboration
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North Americans prefer trilateral collaboration
» All three countries prefer trilateral collaboration across
domestic and transnational issues over developing
independent national policies
• Environment and borders are given highest priority for more
integration
• Some erosion in other areas: defense, currency, economy
and – somewhat surprisingly – energy
» They fear that a lack of cooperation will harm their standard
of living more than a diminution of sovereignty
• “Sovereignty” not a crucial issue in the United States,
Canada, or Mexico
» They feel their governments are not doing enough to foster
cooperation or deepen integration in North America
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Support for three-way policy integration
Q. There are a number of social and economic issues that the U.S., Canada and
Mexico deal with which overlap and impact the other countries. In the future,
would you like to see the U.S., Canada and Mexico develop policies independently
of each other or develop integrated policies in each of the following areas?
Environ. quality
Border security
Econ. policy
Defense policy
Energy policy
Currency
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BASE: October 2013, US (n=1,600); Canada (n=1,505); Mexico (n=1,320)
Copyright 2013. No reproduction without permission.
Tracking environmental quality integration
Q. In the future, would you like to see the U.S., Canada and Mexico develop policies
independently of each other or develop integrated policies in each of the following
areas? Environmental quality
80
% who say INTEGRATED (5-7)
70
60
58%
50
40
39%
30
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
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BASE: October 2013, US (n=1,600); Canada (n=1,505); Mexico (n=1,320)
Copyright 2013. No reproduction without permission.
Tracking border security integration
Q. In the future, would you like to see the U.S., Canada and Mexico develop policies
independently of each other or develop integrated policies in each of the following
areas? Border security
70
% who say INTEGRATED (5-7)
60
50
48%
40
39%
30
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
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BASE: October 2013, US (n=1,600); Canada (n=1,505); Mexico (n=1,320)
Copyright 2013. No reproduction without permission.
Tracking economic policy integration
Q. In the future, would you like to see the U.S., Canada and Mexico develop policies
independently of each other or develop integrated policies in each of the following
areas? Economic policy
50
% who say INTEGRATED (5-7)
40
30
28%
26%
20
10
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
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BASE: October 2013, US (n=1,600); Canada (n=1,505); Mexico (n=1,320)
Copyright 2013. No reproduction without permission.
Tracking defense policy integration
Q. In the future, would you like to see the U.S., Canada and Mexico develop policies
independently of each other or develop integrated policies in each of the following
areas? Defense policy
50
% who say INTEGRATED (5-7)
40
31%
30
26%
20
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
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BASE: October 2013, US (n=1,600); Canada (n=1,505); Mexico (n=1,320)
Copyright 2013. No reproduction without permission.
Tracking energy policy integration
Q. In the future, would you like to see the U.S., Canada and Mexico develop policies
independently of each other or develop integrated policies in each of the following
areas? Energy policy
60
% who say INTEGRATED (5-7)
50
40
36%
30
24%
20
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
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BASE: October 2013, US (n=1,600); Canada (n=1,505); Mexico (n=1,320)
Copyright 2013. No reproduction without permission.
Tracking currency integration
Q. In the future, would you like to see the U.S., Canada and Mexico develop policies
independently of each other or develop integrated policies in each of the following
areas? Currency integration
40
% who say INTEGRATED (5-7)
30
20
17%
15%
10
0
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
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BASE: October 2013, US (n=1,600); Canada (n=1,505); Mexico (n=1,320)
Copyright 2013. No reproduction without permission.
Importance of environmental issues
Q. To what extent do you think environmental considerations should play a role in
North American trade negotiations?
October 2013
October 2003
October 2013
October 2003
October 2013
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BASE: October 2013, US (n=1,600); Canada (n=1,505); Mexico (n=1,320)
Copyright 2013. No reproduction without permission.
Effectiveness of cooperation
Q. Overall, do you think that (the United States / Canada / Mexico) would be
more effective in dealing with issues such as economic policy, immigration,
transportation, energy, defense and climate change if it co-operated with
(other North American nations), or should the United States / Canada / Mexico
develop and implement its own policies?
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BASE: October 2013, US (n=1,600); Canada (n=1,505); Mexico (n=1,320)
Copyright 2013. No reproduction without permission.
Impact of cooperation on sovereignty
Q. Which of the following two statements comes closest to your own point of
view?
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BASE: October 2013, US (n=1,600); Canada (n=1,505); Mexico (n=1,320)
Copyright 2013. No reproduction without permission.
Are gov’ts doing too little or too much on
NA?
Q. Do you think our government is doing too much, just enough or too little to seek
greater cooperation with our neighbors on these transnational issues?
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BASE: October 2013, US (n=1,600); Canada (n=1,505); Mexico (n=1,320)
Copyright 2013. No reproduction without permission.
Should gov’ts do more to foster collaboration?
Q. Would you like your government to play a more active or a less active role in
promoting more collaborative policies with our neighbors?
16% less active
23% less active
14% less active
58% more active
64% more active
83% more active
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BASE: October 2013, US (n=1,600); Canada (n=1,505); Mexico (n=1,320)
Copyright 2013. No reproduction without permission.
Preferred extent of government role
Q. Would you like your government to play a more active or a less active role in
promoting more collaborative policies with our neighbors?
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BASE: October 2013, US (n=1,600); Canada (n=1,505); Mexico (n=1,320)
Copyright 2013. No reproduction without permission.
Support for further cooperation
Q. Do you think our government is doing too much, just enough or too little to seek
greater cooperation with our neighbors on these transnational issues?
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BASE: October 2013, US (n=1,600); Canada (n=1,505); Mexico (n=1,320)
Copyright 2013. No reproduction without permission.
Best approach to negotiations with Asia and
EU
Q. What do you think is best: collaboration and a unified approach with our other
two North American neighbors in advance of trade and economic
negotiations with Asia and the European Union or each country negotiating on
its own?
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BASE: October 2013, US (n=1,600); Canada (n=1,505); Mexico (n=1,320)
Copyright 2013. No reproduction without permission.
Forming a single North American country
Q. Would you consider forming a single North American country if it means that
you would enjoy a higher standard of living, a higher quality of life, or an
improved environment?
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BASE: October 2013, US (n=1,600); Canada (n=1,505); Mexico (n=1,320)
Copyright 2013. No reproduction without permission.
7. Preliminary Conclusions
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Preliminary conclusions (i)
» Case for North American cooperation still strong
» Areas of weakened commitment may reflect lack of
leadership and rising economic anxieties about future in
Canada and the United States
» Economic anxieties linked to eroding middle class, stagnation,
and dark future grip in Canada and, in particular, the United
States
» Mexico is more pro-North America
» America still focused on security at border, Canada/Mexico
are not
» Mexico newly stressing freedom of movement
» NAFTA still strongly supported, North America preferred trading
partner
‹#›
Copyright 2013. No reproduction without permission.
Preliminary conclusions (ii)
» All three peoples seek greater cooperation to address more
effectively their domestic concerns, and such a strategy could
help to restore the middle class in the U.S. and Canada and
continue to expand it in Mexico while also increasing their
bargaining leverage vis-à-vis Asia and Europe.
» Sovereignty is a concern among a very small part of the
population: 10-16% in all three countries. The publics are far
more interested in having their governments play a much
more active role in promoting collaboration.
» Lou Dobbs was wrong in saying that Americans fear a loss of
sovereignty. Quite the contrary, the public feels our leaders
have been too timid in promoting more unified approaches
for dealing with domestic and transnational issues, like
economic policy, the environment, and energy.
‹#›
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For more information:
Frank Graves
EKOS Research Associates
fgraves@ekos.com
(613) 235-7215
www.ekos.com
‹#›
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