1960-1964
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Terms
Counter-force targeting
Counter-value (city)
targeting
Assured destruction
PA&E
Systems analysis
2 ½ war strategy
Wars of national
liberation
Counter-insurgency
Cost-effectiveness
Strategic triad
SSBN/SLBM
LTBT
PPBS
Escalation ladder
Special forces
Hot-Line
EMT
DIA
Finite deterrence
Damage limitation
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Key Shifts in National Security
Policy
Flexible Response
–
–
–
Creating new options for defense & deterrence –
symmetry
general purpose force for escalation control
special forces for counter-insurgency
PPBS/Systems Analysis
–
–
New approach to defense budgeting and
management
Focus on missions not services
Strategic Triad & Assured Destruction
–
systematic evolution of US SNF
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Flexible Response
Nuclear weapons do not solve all national security problems
–
–
matching force to mission
Rebuild conventional forces
Gen Max. Taylor = Special Military Advisor to Pres. Kennedy
–
–
19621962-1964: Chair JCS
19641964-1967; Amb.
Amb. To S. Vietnam
Counter-insurgency & guerrilla war
–
–
–
jungle warfare schools in Panama and Ft. Bragg, NC
to train US and foreign forces
counter-insurgency
Conflict control (escalation control)
–
–
–
signaling, bargaining with military forces
matching means with goals
limited war (Schelling & game theory)
2 ½ war strategy
–
–
–
1 Europe/Soviet Union
1 PRC
½ elsewhere
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Systems Analysis/PPBS
Goal: break old institutional & special
interest control over defense
allocations & resources
– Increase civilian control over defense
spending & weapons acquisition
Analyze military requirements and
costs simultaneously
Explicit consideration of alternative
means of accomplishing a mission
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Strategic Doctrine I
Damage Limitation
– Counterforce Targeting
Strategic Force Targeting
– Active Defense
ABM
Air Defense
– Passive Defense
Civil Defense
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Counterforce Mission
Number of Warheads per Target
(95% probability of kill)
CEP
Yield
500kt
1Mt
5Mt
.1 miles
1
1
1
.5 miles
9
6
2
1 mile
36
23
8
* Assumes target hardness = 300 psi
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Nike-X ABM
Nuclear anti-missiles
Exo-atmosphere intercept
Atmospheric intercept
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Strategic Doctrine II
Assured Destruction
– Deterrence via secure second strike capability
City Targeting (counter value targeting)
Strategic triad
– How Much is Enough?
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Lethal Area for a 14kt Nuclear Blast
HELP!
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Lethal Area for a 200kt Nuclear
Blast
HELP!
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Lethal Area for a 1mt Nuclear Blast
HELP!
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Lethal Area (sq mi.)
Lethal Effects Against Soft
Targets
200
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
area
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Yield (MT)
EMT=6 y 2/3
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% of Target Type D estroyed
Assured Destruction
60
50
40
Population
Industry
30
20
10
0
0
100
500
1000
1500
Equivalent Megatons
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Triad Sensitivity
Probability Analysis
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Strategic Triad
SNDVs Needed to Kill 400 Targets
Number o f
W eapons
95% Confidence
7000
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
SLBM
ICBM
Bomber
A
C
B
D
Scenario
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Strategic Balance -1961
US
Soviet Union
ICBMs
100
5
SLBMs
48
150 SR-SLBMs
Bombers
600
210
Weapons
1800
<375
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US & Soviet Strategic Forces
14,000
12,000
10,000
US
USSR
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
19
45
19
50
19
55
19
60
19
65
19
70
19
75
19
80
19
85
19
90
19
95
20
00
Number of Warheads
16,000
Year
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Events
French A-bomb (1960)
Congo Crisis (1960)
U2 Shoot Down (1960)
Bay of Pigs (4/1961)
Vietnam (1961)
Berlin Wall (8/61)
Cuban Missile Crisis
LTBT (1962)
Vietnam Coup (1963)
Hot-Line Agreement (1963)
Kennedy Assassinated
(1963)
China A-bomb (1964)
Vietnam (1964)
(1962)
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END
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Cuba (1961-1962)
Bay of
Pigs
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B52 Bomber
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Minuteman ICBM
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Polaris SSBN/SLBM
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Strategic Balance -1970
US
ICBMs/RVs
(MIRVs)
SSBNs[SLBMs]/
RVs(MIRVs)
Bombers/Weapon
s
Weapons
Soviet Union
1054/1074 (30)
1420/1420 (0)
41[656]/800
(160)
20/289/289 (0)
465/2200
140/200
4074
1849
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