Weather-Ready Nation
Saving Lives and Livelihoods
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Denny VanCleve
Forecaster, NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
23 July, 2013
1
Weather Ready Nation?
Ready
VISION
Responsive
Resilient
Society is prepared for and responds to
weather-dependent events
2
NOAA’s Next-Generation Strategic Plan LongTerm Goals:
1. Climate Adaptation and Mitigation
2. Weather-Ready Nation
3. Healthy Oceans
4. Resilient Coastal Communities and Economies
3
Governments exist to:
1. Protect their citizens
2. Enhance their citizen’s lives
National Weather Service Mission:
…protection of life and property and
enhancement of the national economy
4
22 May, 2011
Tornado Warnings
and Sirens 20
Minutes before
touchdown
Outcome:
159 Dead
Over 1,000 Injured
5
6
19-20 June, 2012
5-10 inches rain
Infrastructure
was not Weather
Ready
When rebuilt,
will it be Weather
Ready?
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A Changing World
2011: A Year of Extremes
14 Weather and Climate Billion Dollar Disasters
8
Number of Federal Disaster
Declarations, 1953-2012*
99
81
75
59
63
48
52
56
44
11
32
36
32
38
43
45
11
31
34
24
21
15
23
22
25
27
28
23
38
30
29
17
17
19
11
11
22
20
25
25
12
12
11 federal disasters
were declared
through Apr. 10, 2012
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
7
7
13
17
18
16
16
40
0
42
48
46
46
60
20
69
65
80
50
45
45
49
100
The number of federal
disaster declarations set a
new record in 2011, with 99,
shattering 2010’s record 81
declarations.
75
120
There have been 2,056
federal disaster
declarations since
1953. The average
number of declarations
per year is 34 from
1953-2010, though that
few haven’t been
recorded since 1995.
The Number of Federal Disaster Declarations Is Rising and Set New Records in 2010 and
2011
*Through April 10, 2012.
Source: Federal Emergency Management Administration: http://www.fema.gov/news/disaster_totals_annual.fema ; Insurance
Information Institute.
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A Changing World
Population Shifts, Technological Dependence
10
NOAA Evolves Operations
 Enhance decision support services by implementing a Common
Operating Picture (COP) from latest observations, models,
community risk assessments
 Integrate Weather, Water, Climate IDSS with help from social
scientists
Energize Partners in National Movement for Weatherreadiness
 National Dialogue with partners: series of symposiums to
assess why the nation is more vulnerable and identify how to
improve preparedness
 NWS leads partnered public education initiative to improve
societal response to weather information and warnings
11
Evolve Service
Operations
Six NWS Pilot Projects:
Impact-Based Decision
Support Services (IDSS):
 Urban region – Sterling, Va.,
 Coastal region – New
Orleans
 Regional level – Fort Worth
 National level – Silver Spring
Integrated environmental
services – WFO Tampa, FL
Mesoscale Science – WFO
Charleston, WV
Build a Little, Test a Little, Field a Little
13
A Vital Conversation
Norman, OK -- December 13-15, 2011
• NSF, NOAA, UCAR, OU Sponsorship
• 175 Attendees
–
–
–
–
Academia (Physical and Social Scientist)
Private Sector (~20 Companies)
Media
Federal, State, Local Government
14
Results from WRN Events
Eight Themes
1) Integrate social and physical sciences – from
research to operations
2) Review strategies to reduce false
alarms
3) Update warning dissemination
strategy
4) Advance physical modeling
of severe weather
Report from “A Vital Conversation”
http://www.joss.ucar.edu/events/2011/weather_ready/summary_report.pdf
15
Results from WRN Events
Eight Themes
5) Improve outreach and education to supported
agencies and groups: FEMA, emergency managers,
threatened communities
6) Evolve the NWS Service Assessments
7) Build coalitions with corporate America
to enhance community resilience
8) Examine the NWS Forecast and Warning
Process, including public response
16
Goal : A Weather-Ready Nation empowered
to make life-saving decisions that also
prevent devastating economic loss
There will always be severe weather…but
hopefully the impacts will be lessened
through this and other similar intiatives
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The End
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