Introduction to the American Political Process Elections The Dynamics of the Electoral Campaign zWinnowing zThe “Big Mo” {Election – The horserace {Pre-Election: Name recognition and money zThe Horserace {Creating Momentum CNN/USA Today Poll 1/17-1/19 1/20-1/22 Kerry 17% 34% Dean 32% 22% Money Raised Money Spent Presidential Elections zElectoral College zStrategy {Series of Local Elections {NY vs. PA {Battleground States State Margin of Victory Electoral Votes Bush Wins Florida 0.01% 27 New Hampshire 1.27 4 Missouri 3.34 11 Nevada 3.55 5 Ohio 3.55 20 Tennessee 3.86 11 Arkansas 5.45 6 West Virginia 6.02 5 Arizona 6.29 8 Total: 97 Gore Wins Wisconsin 0.02% 10 New Mexico 0.06 5 Oregon 0.05 7 Minnesota 2.4 10 Pennsylvania 4.17 21 Maine 5.11 4 Michigan 5.13 17 Washington 5.58 11 Total: 85 Congressional Elections zHouse Elections {Name recognition {The advantages of incumbency zFranking zFundraising zSenate Election {Lessened incumbency advantage Incumbent Victory Rate: 1946-1998 100 90 80 70 Percent Win 60 50 40 House 30 Senate 20 10 0 1946 1948 1950 1952 1954 1956 1958 1960 1962 1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 Year How Do Voters Decide zThe Multiple Bases of the Vote {Party identification {Issues and policies {Candidate attributes {Retrospective evaluations Party Identification zMeasurement and predictive ability {“Generally speaking, do you consider yourself a Democrat, a Republican, or an independent?” {High loyalty zThe psychological perspective zThe rational perspective zBringing it together {Theories not exclusive {Party identification is the baseline for the vote Other Bases of the Vote zIssues and Policies {Elect candidates who share your views {Issue conflicts zCandidate Attributes {Voting for a person, not policies {Less “rational”? {Attribute components zRetrospective Voting {“Throw the bums out” Campaigns zCandidates and Campaigns {How do candidates attract supporters? zCandidate Strategies {Adapt to voter sentiment zMove to the middle {Framing zDefining the race Campaigns (continued) zNegative Advertising {How do candidates attract supporters? {Effects of negative campaigns zTurnout effects zCynicism NJ 12 – DCCC NRCC – NJ 12 Campaigns z Negative Campaigns (cont) {Are things getting worse? Campaigns zCampaign Effects {Predictive Models {Mobilization vs. Conversion Campaign Finance zThe importance of money zFederal Election Campaign Act (FECA) zCircumventing the system: Soft Money zIssue ads and “magic words” {"vote for," "elect," "support," "cast your ballot for," "Smith for Congress," "vote against," "defeat," and "reject” General, President Congress President PAC, Congress 1000 900 Millions of 2000 Dollars 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 1900 1920 1940 Year 1960 Spending Over Time in Real 2000 Dollars 1980 2000 Soft Money Activity Non-Federal Disbursements $70,000, 000 $60,000, 000 $50,000, 000 DSCC $40,000, 000 DCCC $30,000, 000 NRSC NRCC $20,000, 000 $10,000, 000 $0 1994 1996 1998 2000 NRCC – WA 2 Campaign Finance (cont) zBipartisan Campaign Reform Act of 2002 zMcConnell v. FEC {Ban soft money and limit issue ads {Through out bans on contributions from minors, non-candidate party spending zNew definition of issue ads {Magic words or depicting a federal candidate within 60 days of a federal election z527 organizations – MoveOn.org General, President Congress Total, President PAC, Congress 3000 Millions of '2000 GDP' Dollars (Deflated by Current GDP/2000 GDP) 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 1900 1920 1940 Year 1960 Spending Over Time Deflated by GDP 1980 2000