LATINO IMMIGRATION ATTITUDES AND
SUPPORT FOR THE TWO PARTIES*
Ali A. Valenzuela, Ph.D.
Assistant Professor of Politics, Princeton University
Research Fellow, CLALS, American University
January 15, 2015
* Prepared for American University’s Annual Latino Public Affairs Forum:
“Prospects and Implications of Immigration Reform Policies, 2015-16.”
Questions addressed today
!
Latino vote in 2014, likely vote in 2016?
!
Immigration attitudes in 2014, likely attitudes after BO
executive action / GOP blocking of exec action?
!
Role of immigration attitudes in Latino voting?
!
2014 U.S. House vote
!
2014 U.S. Senate vote
!
Likely 2016 U.S. Presidential vote
Hypotheses
1.
2.
Latino immigration attitudes significant determinants of 2014
House and Senate votes, likely 2016 Pres. vote.
To understand Latino immigration attitudes, need to know
Latino-specific attributes such as:
!
Strength of ethnic attachments,
!
immigrant social networks,
!
language use,
!
generation,
!
and national ancestry;
!
in addition to more traditional factors such as educational attainment,
income, and party identification.
Data and measures
!
2014 Election Eve survey
conducted by Latino Decisions.
!
Completed interviews by telephone, using fully bilingual
callers, with 4,529 Latino voters in 10 states + nationally.
!
Political Qs on 2014 House and Senate votes, likely 2016
Pres. vote, candidate favorability, party identification.
!
Latino-specific Qs: identity label, group consciousness, know
an undocumented immigrant, survey/news language,
generation (parents, grandparents birthplace), national origin.
!
Qs on immigration issue: salience/importance, relevance for
vote, impact of exec. action on party enthusiasm.
Latino votes in 2014, likely vote in 2016
80
72
72
70
70
60
Percent
50
40
30
28
30
28
20
10
0
2014 House vote
2014 Senate vote
Dem / Independent (KS Senate)
2016 Pres. expected vote
Republican
Source: Latino Decisions Election Eve 2014 Poll Sponsored by LVP/NCLR/AV.
Note: National results.
Latino votes in 2014, likely vote in 2016
70
60
60
59
52
Percent
50
40
30
20
28
24
23
20
17
16
10
0
House vote
Senate vote
Dem / Independent (KS Senate)
Republican
2016 expected vote
DK / Refused
Source: Latino Decisions Election Eve 2014 Poll Sponsored by LVP/NCLR/AV.
Note: National results.
Immigration issue SALIENCE
Most important issue facing the Latino community that
politicians should address?
0
5
10
15
Percent
20
25
Immigration
Race/Discrimination
40
2
23
Education
Other issues / DK / Ref
35
36
Jobs/the economy
Health care
30
13
7
19
Source: Latino Decisions Election Eve 2014 Poll Sponsored by LVP/NCLR/AV.
Note: National results.
Immigration issue RELEVANCE
How important is the issue of immigration in your decision
to vote, and who to vote for in this election?
67
The / one of the most imp. issues
20
Somewhat important issue
13
Not important / DK / Ref
0
10
20
30
40
Percent
50
60
70
Source: Latino Decisions Election Eve 2014 Poll Sponsored by LVP/NCLR/AV.
Note: National results.
80
Immigration issue POLARIZATION
If President Obama enacts an executive order before the
end of this year would that make you feel more / less
enthusiastic about the Democratic Party?
18
MORE enthusiastic
LESS enthusiastic
7
52
15
8
No effect
0
10
20
30
Somewhat more/less
40
Percent
50
60
70
Much more/less
Source: Latino Decisions Election Eve 2014 Poll Sponsored by LVP/NCLR/AV.
Note: National results.
80
Immigration issue POLARIZATION
If Republicans block President Obama from taking any
action on immigration would that make you feel more / less
enthusiastic about the Republican Party?
8
MORE enthusiastic
LESS enthusiastic
17
17
52
6
No effect
0
10
20
30
Somewhat more/less
40
Percent
50
60
70
Much more/less
Source: Latino Decisions Election Eve 2014 Poll Sponsored by LVP/NCLR/AV.
Note: National results.
80
Did Latino immigration attitudes help
determine their vote preferences?
Latino-specific attributes: ethnic attachments,
social networks and language use
Label preference
Latino: 25%
No pref: 23%
Support Latinos:
38%
Vote motivation
Know undocumented
Hispanic: 52%
Support Reps:
16%
Support Dems: 33%
Yes: 55%
Survey language
Spanish: 35%
News language
Mostly Spanish: 27%
0%
10%
20%
No: 39%
DK/Ref/Other:
13%
DK/Ref:
6%
English: 65%
None/
Both equal:
DK/Ref:
16%
7%
Mostly English: 51%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90% 100%
Source: Latino Decisions Election Eve 2014 Poll Sponsored by LVP/NCLR/AV.
Note: National results.
Determinants of Democratic vote choice
Immigration most imp. issue facing Latinos
Immigration imp. for vote decision
More enthusiasm for Dems if exec action
More enthusiasm for GOP if blocked action
2014 House
2014 Senate
2016 Pres.
Voted to support the Dems
Voted to support Latinos
Voted to support the GOP
Democratic PID
-0.45
-0.35
-0.25
-0.15
-0.05
0.05
0.15
0.25
Change in predicted probability of Democratic vote choice
0.35
0.45
Summary of results
!
Executive action by Pres. Obama and the Republican
Congress’s efforts to block are both polarizing among Latinos:
!
Supporters of action are much more enthusiastic about the Democratic
Party in light of action by Obama; detractors are much less enthusiastic.
!
Supporters are much less enthusiastic about the Republican Party if
executive action is blocked; detractors are much more enthusiastic.
Summary of results
!
!
Executive action by Pres. Obama and the Republican
Congress’s efforts to block are both polarizing among Latinos:
!
Supporters of action are much more enthusiastic about the Democratic
Party in light of action by Obama; detractors are much less enthusiastic.
!
Supporters are much less enthusiastic about the Republican Party if
executive action is blocked; detractors are much more enthusiastic.
Enthusiasm for the parties in light of executive action, or
blocked action, is consistently, strongly and positively related
to Democratic vote preferences in 2014 and 2016.
Summary of results
!
Executive action by Pres. Obama and the Republican
Congress’s efforts to block are both polarizing among Latinos:
!
Supporters of action are much more enthusiastic about the Democratic
Party in light of action by Obama; detractors are much less enthusiastic.
!
Supporters are much less enthusiastic about the Republican Party if
executive action is blocked; detractors are much more enthusiastic.
!
Enthusiasm for the parties in light of executive action, or
blocked action, is consistently, strongly and positively related
to Democratic vote preferences in 2014 and 2016.
!
Immigration issue salience and self-reported relevance to
vote are less influential after controlling for Latino-specific
attributes that predict these immigration attitudes.
Implications for policymaking and Election 2016
!
Efforts to change immigration policy through executive action
are strongly supported by Latinos, and such action and
responses to it impact enthusiasm for the two parties;
!
Such enthusiasm predicts Latino Democratic vote preferences, even
when controlling for a host of other more traditional factors;
!
Latinos who are less enthusiastic about the Republican Party because
of blocked executive action will be less likely to vote GOP in 2016;
!
Such enthusiasm, its connection to executive action/blocked action, and
its impact on vote preferences should be highlighted.
Implications for policymaking and Election 2016
!
!
Efforts to change immigration policy through executive action
are strongly supported by Latinos, and such action and
responses to it impact enthusiasm for the two parties;
!
Such enthusiasm predicts Latino Democratic vote preferences, even
when controlling for a host of other more traditional factors;
!
Latinos who are less enthusiastic about the Republican Party because
of blocked executive action will be less likely to vote GOP in 2016;
!
Such enthusiasm, its connection to executive action/blocked action, and
its impact on vote preferences should be highlighted.
Latino motivations for voting are also key:
!
Latinos who vote to support the Latino community, perhaps because
they feel abandoned by both parties, are less likely to vote Democratic,
so the parties must make Latinos feel welcomed if they want their vote.
Thank you!
Comments? Questions?
aavalenz@princeton.edu