Workshop:
Scenarios, Communication, Mindmaps …
Urban Transportation Planning
MIT Course 1.252j/11.540j
Fall 2006
Mikel Murga, MIT Lecturer and Research Associate
Urban Transportation Planning – Fall 2006
Scope
„
„
„
„
„
Workshop 1
Introduction from Meyer and Miller
Forecasting … and Scenarios
Demographics as an example
Communication tools
Working with Mindmaps
2
Urban Transportation Planning – Fall 2006
Introduction from Meyer and Miller …
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
The world moves into the future as a result of decisions (or
the lack of decisions), not as result of plans
All decisions involve the evaluation of alternative images of
the future, and the selection of the most highly valued of
feasible alternatives
Evaluation and decisions are influenced by the degree of
uncertainty associated with expected consequences
The products of planning should be designed to increase the
chance of making better decisions
The result of planning is some form of communication with
decision makers
Chapter 1, pages 2-3
Workshop 1
3
Urban Transportation Planning – Fall 2006
Models and Forecasting…
„
Forecasting:
„
„
„
„
Workshop 1
Short term
extrapolation:The future on
the basis of the past
Applicable to slow
incremental change
We tend to believe that
today’s status quo will
continue for ever
We often ignore …
Forecasting
Scenarios
uncertainty
predictability
Time into the future
4
Urban Transportation Planning – Fall 2006
…And Scenarios
„
„
„
Workshop 1
A conceptual description of the future based on
cause and effect
Invent and analyze several stories of equally
plausible futures to bring forward surprises and
unexpected leaps of understanding
Goal is not to create a future, nor to choose the
most probable one, but to make strategic
decisions that will be sound (or robust)
under all plausible futures
5
Urban Transportation Planning – Fall 2006
Scenarios
"Scenarios transform information into
perceptions... It is a creative experience
that generates an 'Aha!' ... and leads to
strategic insights beyond the mind's
previous reach."
Pierre Wack GBN
Workshop 1
6
Urban Transportation Planning – Fall 2006
Reading on Scenarios
“The Art of the Long View” by Peter
Schwartz
„ “Scenarios: The Art of Strategic
Conversation” by Kees van der Heijden
„
Both authors work for the Global Business
Network (www.gbn.com) and come from the
Shell Planning Group
Workshop 1
7
Urban Transportation Planning – Fall 2006
Scenarios: Why?
„
„
„
„
„
History is a continuum of pattern breaks
We react to uncertainty through denial
(that is why a quantitative model is so reassuring!)
Mental models, and myths, control what you do
and keep you from raising the right questions
We cannot predict the future with certainty
By providing alternative images of the future:
„
„
„
Workshop 1
We go from facts into perceptions, and,
Open multiple perspectives
Approach: Suspend disbelief in a story long
enough to appreciate its potential impact
8
Urban Transportation Planning – Fall 2006
Scenarios: How?
„
„
„
„
Workshop 1
Examine the environment in which your
actions will take place and see how those
actions will fit in the prevailing forces, trends,
attitudes and influences
Identify driving forces and critical
uncertainties
Challenge prevailing mental modes and be
creative about the future of critical variables
Rehearse the implications
9
Urban Transportation Planning – Fall 2006
Scenarios: Stages
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
Workshop 1
Identify focal issue or decision (ie Global warming)
Identify driving forces in the local environment
Identify driving forces in the macro environment
Rank the importance and uncertainty of each
Select scenario logics (so as to tell a story)
Flesh-out the scenario in terms of driving forces
Analyze implications
Define leading indicators for monitoring
10
Urban Transportation Planning – Fall 2006
Scenarios: Rules
„
Goal:
„
„
„
„
„
Required decisions under each scenario? Vulnerabilities?
Can we control the key driving forces?…
Good scenarios should be plausible, but also
surprising by breaking old stereotypes
Do not assign probabilities to each scenario…
… But give a name to each scenario
A total of 3-4 scenarios: Not just two extremes
plus a probable one. Good to have a wildcard
Workshop 1
11
Urban Transportation Planning – Fall 2006
Demographics as an example
CANADA
Fertility rate:
„
„
Birth rate:
„
„
Avg no. of children born to women over their lifetime
Total no of births divided by the size of the population
Canada claims a low fertility rate (1.7) but a high birth rate
Female
80
60
Age
„
Male
40
20
0
300
200
100
0
100
200
300
From:Boom, Bust and Echo by Prof Foot
12
Population in Thousands
Canada's Population Pyramids, 1996
Workshop 1
Figure by MIT OCW.
Urban Transportation Planning – Fall 2006
Demographics:
What do you make of this?
Pirámide de Población 1981 - Población Ocupada 1981 (C.A.V)
>=75
70-75
Mujer Ocupada
65-70
Pirámide de Población 1996 - Población Ocupada 1996 (C.A.V)
Hombre Ocupado
60-65
Mujer
55-60
Hombre
>=75
70-75
50-55
45-50
65-70
40-45
60-65
35-40
25-30
50-55
20-25
45-50
15-20
10-15
40-45
5-10
35-40
0-5
-80000
-60000
-40000
-20000
Hombre Ocupado
Mujer
Hombre
55-60
30-35
-100000
Mujer Ocupada
30-35
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
25-30
20-25
15-20
Pirámide de Población 1986 - Población Ocupada 1986 (C.A.V)
10-15
>=75
70-75
5-10
Mujer Ocupada
65-70
0-5
Hombre Ocupado
60-65
Mujer
Hombre
55-60
-100000
-80000
-60000
-40000
-20000
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
50-55
45-50
40-45
35-40
30-35
Pirámide de Población 2001 - Población Ocupada 2001 (C.A.V)
25-30
20-25
>=75
15-20
10-15
70-75
5-10
65-70
Mujer Ocupada
Hombre Ocupado
0-5
-100000
-80000
-60000
-40000
-20000
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
60-65
100000
Mujer
Hombre
55-60
50-55
45-50
Pirámide de Población 1991 - Población Ocupada 1991 (C.A.V)
40-45
>=75
70-75
35-40
Mujer Ocupada
Hombre Ocupado
65-70
60-65
30-35
Mujer
Hombre
55-60
25-30
20-25
50-55
45-50
15-20
40-45
35-40
10-15
30-35
5-10
25-30
0-5
20-25
15-20
-100000
10-15
-80000
-60000
-40000
-20000
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
5-10
Workshop 1
0-5
-100000
-80000
-60000
-40000
-20000
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
13
Urban Transportation Planning – Fall 2006
Demographics
„ Is age a good predictor for:
„ Real estate?
„ Transit use?
2.50
Transit
Drive
2.00
1.50
„ Use of hard drugs?
1.00
„ If age is a good predictor,
then:
„ Establish number of
people in each age group
0.50
0.00
5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70+
Age
Note: Statistics are for 1986.
„ Define probability for
each age group, of participation in a
given behavior or activity
Workshop 1
Average Daily Trips per Person, Greater Toronto Area
Figure by MIT OCW.
A 19 yr old has little money but
plenty of time to wait for the bus
From:Boom, Bust and Echo by Prof Foot
14
Urban Transportation Planning – Fall 2006
Demographics
„
„
According to Professor David K. Foot (“Boom,
Bust and Echo”), future scenarios entail some
certainty: In 10 yrs, we will all be 10 yrs older
Demographics, not only predictable, but
inevitable: The most powerful, yet underutilized
tool, to understand the past and foretell the
future
„
Age is a good predictor of behavior… and
therefore, a good forecasting tool
Workshop 1
15
Urban Transportation Planning – Fall 2006
Communication Tools
„
Transportation Policy depends to a great extent
on two-way communications:
„
„
„
„
„
„
But impact of a message is based on:
„
„
„
Workshop 1
Policy analysts ÕÖ elected officials
Elected officials ÕÖ other politicians
Elected officials ÕÖ mass media
Public at large ÕÖ elected officials
…………………. ÕÖ ………………….
words (7%),
how words are said (38%), and,
non verbal clues (55%)
16
Urban Transportation Planning – Fall 2006
Communication Tools
learned
Workshop 1
Listening
1st
Speaking
2nd
Reading
3rd
Writing
4th
used
taught
Most
Least
(45%)
Next most Next least
(30%)
Next least Next most
(16%)
Least (9%)
Most
Listening Courses? Toastmasters? Speed reading?…
17
Urban Transportation Planning – Fall 2006
Communication Tools
“The Visual
Display of
Quantitative
Information” by
Edward R. Tufte
plus the two
follow-up books
– a must-read
reference
Workshop 1
19
Urban Transportation Planning – Fall 2006
Communication Tools
How Do you Visualize Change???
Remember that simulations could be critical
Workshop 1
20
Urban Transportation Planning – Fall 2006
Other tools of the trade
„
Workshop 1
Creativity: Lateral thinking, to thinkout-of-the-box, thinkertoys…
21
Urban Transportation Planning – Fall 2006
Out-of-the-box thinkers
„
Edward de Bono:
„
„
„
„
Michael Michalko:
„
„
„
Thinking Tools
Six thinking hats
Lateral Thinking
Cracking Creativity
ThinkerToys
Many others
„
„
„
„
„
„
„
„
„
Workshop 1
The intelligence trap
The Everest effect
Plus.Minus.Interesting.
C.A.F. consider all factors
O.P.V. Other people view
To look for Alternatives –
beyond the obvious
Analyze Consequences
Problem Solving and Lateral
Thinking
Provocations
22
Urban Transportation Planning – Fall 2006
Mindmapping
See “MindMapping” by Tony Buzan et al
Workshop 1
23
Urban Transportation Planning – Fall 2006
Mindmapping
You see what you
know and where the
gaps are
„ Clears your mind of
mental clutter
„ It works well for
group brainstorming
„
Workshop 1
26
Urban Transportation Planning – Fall 2006
Mindmapping
A whole-brain
alternative to
linear thinking
„ Retain both
the overall
picture and the
details
„ Promote
associations
„
Workshop 1
25
Urban Transportation Planning – Fall 2006
Mindmapping
You see what you
know and where the
gaps are
„ Clears your mind of
mental clutter
„ It works well for
group brainstorming
„
Workshop 1
26
Urban Transportation Planning – Fall 2006
Mindmapping
„
Workshop 1
Let us do a joint MindMap
28
Urban Transportation Planning – Fall 2006
Mind-Mapping
Workshop 1
29
Urban Transportation Planning – Fall 2006
Mind-Mapping
Workshop 1
30
Urban Transportation Planning – Fall 2006
Mind-Mapping
Workshop 1
www.mindjet.com
31