Upland Free Water: Past, Present and Future
in Grand Staircase-Escalante NM?
Jan Hart
David Mattson
Brandon Holton
Mark Miller
USGS Southwest Biological Science Center
Colorado Plateau Research Station
Total precipitation
The Climate Source
THE SEMI-ARID CORE
Grand-Staircase Escalante NM
Mean Annual ppt
150-600 mm
(Elevation 1200-2600 m)
2130 years of reconstructed precipitation in NW New Mexico
Re-occuring and Extended
Severe Drought
1700
1750
1780
1850
1900
1950
2000
1950s
200
1
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
Year
Figure by MIT OCW.
1400
1600
1800 2000
Grand-Staircase Escalante NM
168 natural springs (blue)
Grand-Staircase Escalante NM
168 natural springs (blue)
12 wildlife-related developments (yellow)
667 livestock-related developments (green)
Spatial Availability
Natural upland waters
Flagstaff
Artificial upland waters
Flagstaff
Spatial Availability
Flagstaff
Spatial Availability
Flagstaff
Wupatki NM
Temporal Availability
Climate
Vegetation
Human
land use
Geomorphology
Free water
Geology
Soils
Wildlife
Broadscale patterns
Soil and Vegetation
1.5 km
Finescale patterns
Soil and Vegetation
100 m
HYDROLOGY
Interception of 2% to 33% of run-off
Potential effects on downstream vegetation
Grand-Staircase Escalante NM
Grand-Staircase Escalante NM
Roads and maintenance
Wildlife
ARTIFICIAL
Wildlife
ARTIFICIAL
Near Wupatki National Monument
Wildlife, livestock
& vegetation
Near Wupatki National Monument
Wildlife, livestock
& vegetation
Probable Effects
Spatially & temporally more uniform free water.
Broadscale effects on species richness,
invasives, and palatable species.
Finer-scale effects on soil structure, soil
nutrients, and vegetation cover.
Changes in hydrologic regimes & downstream
vegetation.
Complex interactions among wildlife & livestock.
U.S. Census of Agriculture
Census of
beef cattle
THE FORECAST
Anomalies from 1890-1919 (oC)
THE FORECAST
0.9
0.6
0.3
0.0
-0.3
1900
1920
1940
1960
1980
2000
Year
Observations
(Natural) volcano + solar
(Anthropogenic + Natural) volcano + solar + greenhouse gas + sulfate + ozone
Figure by MIT OCW.
THE FORECAST
Temperature Change June-August
Temperature Change December-February
1.5
Leung et al. (2004)
1.4
1.6
1.4
1.5
Warming…
1.4
5.3
5.3
Precipitation Change (mm/day) June August
and probable
drying.
Figure by MIT OCW.
Precipitation Change (mm/day) December-February
Grand-Staircase Escalante NM
96
185
FOBU
87
GOSP 301
Monsoon
boundary
Winter ppt
73 DINO
146
107
147
488
TICA
194
Northern Colorado
Plateau Network
Green
River
GLCA
91
187
190
335
PISP
Regional
Climatic
Context
CARE
118
201
277
River
Monsoon Northern Boundary
COLM
81
77
BLCA 104
GLCA 150 150
139
CANY
87
99
79
CURE
106
150 136
BRG
194
559
State Boundary
96
187
ARCH
CEBR
Interstate Highway
Colorado
River
61 RABR
172
52
111
113
188
NAVA
85
GRCA 153
156
274
WUPA
109
101
197
WACA 344
NABR
HOVE
84
200
116
214 YUHO
149
MEVE 304
CACH
82
143
114
HUTR
156
SUCR
195
231
119
PEFO 125
Network Boundary
ELMO
168
183
202
BAND 180
PETR
145
113
122
107
ELMA
Summer ppt
Southern Colorado
Plateau Network
50
100
200
122
Mean October to May Annual Precipitation
Particularly
sensitive to
global change
(Ehleringer et al.
1999)
200
SAPU
161
N
0
Mean June to September Precipitation (mm)
Symbol size scaled to indicate Mean Annual Precipitation
94
157 AZRU
103
CHCU 122
103
Km
Figure by MIT OCW.
Grand-Staircase Escalante NM
Many questions…
● How will changing human land uses affect free water availability?
● How will climate change affect free water availability?
● How will these changes affect plant and wildlife communities?
● How will all of this vary with geology and geomorphology?
Grand-Staircase Escalante NM
Many questions…
● How have soils and productivity been affected?
● How has hydrology been affected?
● How have wildlife been affected?
● How to optimize relative to costs, benefits?
More fundamentally
● Explain and predict availability of free water
● Explain and predict effects on biotic communities
● Explain and predict effects on the physical (soil,
water) system
CORE RESEARCH CHALLENGES
Holistic
Whole water system
Integrated & multi-disciplinary
Hydrologists
Geologists/geomorphologists
Specialists in remote sensing
Biologists
Forwarding looking
Rather than reactionary & retrospective
Grand-Staircase Escalante NM
● How to integrate stakeholder
values & cultural traditions?
A Helpful Role for Science?
Contribute to helping people find COMMON GROUND…
by helping stakeholders build a SHARED VISION of
the world (i.e., a “single text” map)…
that everyone BELIEVES.
A Helpful Role for Science?
Participate in/create venues that are…
Respectful & Fair
Participatory
Share responsibility & control
Focus on finding common ground
Grand-Staircase Escalante National Monument
Grand Staircase-Escalante NM
Established by Presidential Proclamation,
September 18, 1996 –
“... a place where one can see how nature
shapes human endeavors in the American
West, where distance and aridity have been
pitted against our dreams and courage.”