Back to the Future? Land Use, Mobility & Accessibility in Metropolitan China
11.953
Day 23
C. Zegras
Contents
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Remember the Developing World…..?
Motorization!
China: Motorization and its Challenges
Land Development: Patterns and Forces
The End of Jobs-Housing Balance?
Shanghai and Rail Transit
Introduction to the Final Assignment
1
Motorization
• Income and per capita motor vehicle fleets
– At national level, 90%
– At the urban level, 80%
• Still considerable variation, due to
– Population densities, urbanization levels,
vehicle production (national industrial policy),
vehicle prices, etc.
– Particularly at urban level…
China
• Average travel rate: 1000 kilometers/year
– Europe: 15,000
– US: 24,000
• Motorization
– Approximately 9 cars per 1000 persons
– National car sales growing by ~70% per year
in 2000s
– National car manufacturing growing by ~80
percent per year.
2
Dynamic Motorization: Auto/Light Truck Fleets
Cars and Personal Light Trucks - SUVs/1000 People
1000
100
United States (1910-2003)
China (1987-2003)
10
Korea (1970-2002)
Japan (1965-2000)
W. Germany (1960-1995)
1
$1,000
$100,000
$10,000
GDP/Capita, 1990 USD (PPP)
W.-S. Ng and Schipper, 2005.
Figure by MIT OCW.
Dynamic Motorization Concerns:
Oil Consumption
Millions of Tons of Oil Equix
300
200
100
0
-100
Consumption
1974
1979
Production
1984
Exports
1989
1994
1999
2004
W.-S. Ng and Schipper, 2005.
Figure by MIT OCW.
3
Dynamic Motorization Concerns:
Air Pollution
City
Beijing
(2000)
CO (%)
77
HC (%)
78
NOx (%)
40
Shanghai
(2000)
86
96
56
Guangzhou
(2000)
84
50
45
W.-S. Ng and Schipper, 2005.
Dynamic Motorization Concerns:
Air Pollution
City
Beijing
(2000)
CO (%)
77
HC (%)
78
NOx (%)
40
Shanghai
(2000)
86
96
56
Guangzhou
(2000)
84
50
45
W.-S. Ng and Schipper, 2005.
4
Dynamic Motorization Concerns:
Accidents?
NAE, CAE, NRC, 2003.
Dynamic Motorization/Urbanization Concerns: Other? 5
China’s Automobile Industry
• Now world’s third largest automobile producer
• “Pillar” of national economic development plans
since 1988
• In 2004, China enacted fuel economy standards
that are stricter than US standards
• Uncertainties over future vehicle demand
composition
– i.e., will the trend towards larger, heavier vehicles
(SUVs) prevail?
• Motor vehicle emission standards now exist
– Euro II-equivalent standards already implemented in
Shanghai and Beijing
W.-S. Ng and Schipper, 2005.
Motor Vehicle Projections…
160
NAS-10 % GDP Growth
140
NAS-8 % GDP Growth
NAS-6 % GDP Growth
WRI-Baseline
120
WRI-Oil Taxes
Millions of Cars
WRI-Integrated
100
80
60
40
20
0
2005
2010
2015
2020
W.-S. Ng and Schipper, 2005; NAE, CAE, NRC, 2003.
6
Dynamic Metropolitan-ization:
Government Responses
One Main Issue: Excessive Density
• National Development Standards
– Require more parking, wider streets, higher per
capita living space
– Density Guidelines:
• 10,000 – 12,500 persons per square km
– Infrastructure guidelines, “road coverage”:
• 8-15% for smaller cities; 15-20% for larger cities
• Averages, including parallel 2-wheeler streets,
parking and pedestrian facilities
NAE, CAE, NRC, 2003.
Dynamic Metropolitan-ization:
Government Responses
Another Main Issue: “Privatization”
• Municipalities allowed to acquire land and
“lease” land (conveyance fees)
– 40 (commercial), 50 (ind.), 70 (resid.) year terms
– lump sum, up-front payments
– Huge source of local government revenues
• Municipalities also collect taxes on land
• Expropriation
– Rural compensation lower than urban…
• Break up of the “work unit” model…
7
Time and NMT Share: Commuting
Moving Patterns
Number
of
workers
Share of
NonCommute
nonmotorized
time
motorized
transport
travel
Within sub-districts
Beyond subdistricts
161
30.0
121
75.2%
570
34.5
396
69.5%
Beyond
Total
956
42.8
515
53.9%
Parallel
337
42.7
154
45.7%
District
Inward
105
30.7
81
77.1%
Outward
514
45.5
280
54.5%
Yang, 2005.
8
Commute Time = f (?)
B
(Constant)
Std. Beta
55.594
T-Stat
Sign.
15.425
0.000
Private_motor
-30.387
-0.193
-8.504
0.000
Workunit_bus
-19.708
-0.230
-8.969
0.000
Walk
-48.433
-0.333
-14.573
0.000
Bicycle
-31.901
-0.530
-19.430
0.000
Worker>2
3.242
0.43
1.918
0.055
Reluctant
5.895
0.095
4.027
0.000
Affirmative
-4.779
-0.080
-3.684
0.000
Income
-0.064
-0.035
-1.568
0.117
Beyond_subdistrict
5.451
0.087
2.313
0.021
Beyond_district
9.184
0.153
3.648
0.001
Move_inward
-6.326
-0.052
-2.183
0.029
Move_outward
3.694
0.057
2.032
0.042
R2 = 0.261
Yang, 2005.
Interpretations & Implications? 9
Dynamic Metropolitan-ization:
Impacts
Decentralizing forces
• Land cheaper on fringe
• Rural conversion generates more revenues
for municipalities
• Growing demand for “campus”-like settings
• Government promotion of the “concentrated
dispersion” model…
10
Shanghai
• During 1990s, MV fleet grew by 30,000-50,000
vehicles per year.
• Average density in the range 14,000-40,000
persons per sq. km
– NY Metro Area: 4,500
• Recent Years
– Massive infrastructure invesments
• $10 bn b/w 1991-1996: bridges, tunnel, inner ring road,
first subway line
– 2000 development plan
• 200 kms of rail, 6 BRT corridors; 520 kms of new
highways
NAE, CAE, NRC, 2003.
Motorization Management
• Various vehicle restrictions in place
– Freight place and time restrictions
– High registration fees ($2,500) and purchase taxes
(10%) for private cars
– Cap of 50,000 new vehicle registrations per year (as
of 1998)
– Bans/restrictions on many motorized two-wheelers
– Also, bans on bicycles in some parts of city
• Motorization Rate
– ~40 to 60 private vehicles per 1000 persons
11
Shanghai Socioeconomics &
Demographics
• Average personal incomes increasingly
rapidly
– Growing income disparity
– Still significant low-income population,
including “floating” pop.
• Larger than national average share of over
65
• Current population growth (official) 0.42%
per year
– 18-21 million by 2020
Evolution in Income Distribution
Income Distribution
60
50
40
1991
1994
1997
2000
30
20
10
20
00
25
00
0
+
and
be
l
o w
20
0
0
～
3 00
0
3
00
0～
4 0
00
40
0
0
～
5 00
0
50
0
0
～
6 0
00
60
0
0
～
7
00
0
70
0
0
～
8 0
00
80
0
0
～
9 00
0
90
00
～
10
00
0
1 00
0
0 ～
2
00
00
2 00
00 ～
25
00
0
0
Zhao, 2003.
12
Age Distribution
Age Distribution in year 2001
25
20
15
Male
Female
10
5
98
84
91
63
70
77
49
56
35
42
14
21
28
0
7
0
Zhao, 2003.
Trip Rate: Estimated and Expected
(Average Daily Trips/Capita)
3
2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5
0
1996
2005
2010
2020
Zhao, 2003.
13
Shanghai: Mode Share Evolution
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
Walking and Bicycle
Public Transport
50%
Motorized private
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
1981
1986
1991
1995
2002
ITDP, 2005.
Public Transport Mode Shares
Ferry
4%
Tax i
19%
Subway
7%
Bus
70%
Zhao, 2003.
14
Shanghai Urban Development
Strategy
• Monocentricity to polycentricity
• Plan for five levels of hierarchical urban
structure
– CBD, Sub-Centers, Specialized Centers,
District Centers, Community Centers
– Aim to follow rail…
Rail Transit Network and Centers/Sub-Centers
15
Per Capita Living Area
14
12
m2/person
10
8
6
4
2
20
00
19
98
19
96
19
94
19
92
19
90
19
88
19
86
19
84
19
82
19
80
19
78
0
Zhao, 2003.
Rail Transit: Achieving its Aims?
16
Rail Transit: Ridership Effects
Trip Purposes
Year
Work
School
Personal
Business
Shopping
Recreational
Other
2000
20.4%
6.6%
3.3%
26.8%
30.5%
12.5%
2002
24.6%
3.8%
4.7%
33.9%
17.4%
15.6%
2003
36.5%
5.2%
10.9%
28.6%
9.4%
9.4%
Pan and Zhang, 2005.
Rail Transit: Ridership Effects
Mode Choice
70%
Before
Current
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Metro
Bus
Car
Walk
Bicyc le
Pow ered
Bicycle
Motorcyc le
Other
Pan and Zhang, 2005.
17
Rail Transit Effects: Trip Times
Pan and Zhang, 2005.
Rail Transit Effects: Trip Distribution
Pan and Zhang, 2005.
18
Rail Transit Effects: Development
3
2.5
Average FAR
2
1.5
1
0.5
0
Inner Buffer
Outer Buffer
Metro Line-1
Inner Buffer
Outer Buffer
Inner Buffer
Metro Line-2
Outer Buffer
Metro Line-3
Pan and Zhang, 2005.
Rail Transit
Impacts:
Figure 9 Changes in Land Use Composition an Development Intensity in Xin-Zhuang Station,
Shanghai (See Figure 6 for land use and intensity keys)
Land Use
Changes at
Xin-Zhuang
Station
Pan and Zhang, 2005.
19
Rail Transit Impacts: Problems with Analysis?
20