Flexibility in Real Estate Project Development Prof. Richard de Neufville Michel-Alexandre Cardin Engineering Systems Division MIT Cover Story • Case investigates two general questions in real estate development strategy: – Is it worth investing upfront to acquire particular infrastructures (e.g. a park, utilities, etc.)? – Is flexibility in expansion timing worthwhile? • Particular instance studied: – Development of apartment units around a park 2 May 2007 Richard de Neufville / Michel-Alexandre Cardin © Draft Presentation for MIT Center for Real Estate 2 of 31 Apartment Development Project • Development of apartment units around a park – Five phases, 24 months each, start in 2007 – All units 1000 SF each – Market value represents NPV (at 9% discount rate) of all revenues once phase is completed Phase I II III IV V Total Type APT APT APT APT APT 2 May 2007 SF 50,000 80,000 90,000 110,000 100,000 430,000 Units Net Acreage 50 1.15 80 1.84 90 2.07 110 2.53 100 2.30 430 9.87 Start 1/07 1/08 1/09 1/10 1/11 Completion 1/09 1/10 1/11 1/12 1/13 Richard de Neufville / Michel-Alexandre Cardin © Draft Presentation for MIT Center for Real Estate 3 of 31 Static Case • Key Assumptions – Deterministic forecast for market value of built property currently evaluated at $350/SF -- increases at 2.5% per year – Deterministic forecast for development costs currently evaluated at $220/SF -- increase with inflation at 2.5% per year – Development of all phases in a row benefits from cost reductions of 2.5% due to economies of scale – Discount rate for market value of built apartment property (rV) is 9%, and for construction costs (rC) is 6%, close to currently prevailing risk-free rate 2 May 2007 Richard de Neufville / Michel-Alexandre Cardin © Draft Presentation for MIT Center for Real Estate 4 of 31 Static Case • Market value of built property and development cost models $620 $570 $520 $470 $420 $370 $320 $270 $220 $170 2007 2012 2017 2022 2027 Year Value per Square Foot 2 May 2007 Dev't Cost per Square Foot Richard de Neufville / Michel-Alexandre Cardin © Draft Presentation for MIT Center for Real Estate 5 of 31 Static Case • Assumptions: – Park area is about 50,000 SF (1 acre) and costs $1M to develop along with the five development phases. – Cost is distributed to each phase as $200,000 each. – Land acquisition costs $15M, paid when phase I begins – Infrastructure development, which includes site grading, paving, utilities, and landscaping is estimated at $29/SF 2 May 2007 Richard de Neufville / Michel-Alexandre Cardin © Draft Presentation for MIT Center for Real Estate 6 of 31 Static Case • Pro Forma Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model Year Period Built property value per SF ($) Dev't cost per SF ($) Phase I value Phase I dev't cost Phase II value Phase II dev't cost Phase III value Phase III dev't cost Phase IV value Phase IV dev't cost Phase V value Phase V dev't cost Acquisition cost Infrastructure cost Park development cost Value of built property Total cost Net value PV of built property PV total cost NPV Return over initial cost (incl. discount rate) 2007 0 $350 $220 $0 $10,725,000 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $15,000,000 $1,426,911 $195,000 $0 $27,346,911 -$27,346,911 $115,903,253 $112,740,379 $3,162,873 2 May 2007 2008 1 $359 $226 $0 $0 $0 $17,589,000 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $2,340,134 $199,875 $0 $20,129,009 -$20,129,009 2009 2 $368 $231 $18,385,938 $0 $0 $0 $0 $20,282,316 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $2,698,467 $204,872 $18,385,938 $23,185,655 -$4,799,717 2010 3 $377 $237 $0 $0 $30,152,938 $0 $0 $0 $0 $25,409,234 $0 $0 $0 $3,380,580 $209,994 $30,152,938 $28,999,808 $1,153,130 2011 4 $386 $243 $0 $0 $0 $0 $34,770,106 $0 $0 $0 $0 $23,676,787 $0 $3,150,086 $215,244 $34,770,106 $27,042,116 $7,727,990 2012 5 $396 $249 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $43,559,216 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $43,559,216 $0 $43,559,216 2013 6 $406 $255 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $40,589,270 $0 $0 $0 $0 $40,589,270 $0 $40,589,270 12% Richard de Neufville / Michel-Alexandre Cardin © Draft Presentation for MIT Center for Real Estate 7 of 31 No Pre-Investment in Park • Value At Risk and Gain curve (VARG curve) 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% $3.10 $3.12 $3.14 $3.16 $3.18 $3.20 Millions NPV ($) Static NPV 2 May 2007 Richard de Neufville / Michel-Alexandre Cardin © Draft Presentation for MIT Center for Real Estate 8 of 31 With Pre-Investment in Park • Value At Risk and Gain curve (VARG curve) 2 May 2007 Richard de Neufville / Michel-Alexandre Cardin © Draft Presentation for MIT Center for Real Estate 9 of 31 Case Recognizing Uncertainty • Recognize reality of uncertainty – Only around market value of built property – Initial value within ± 50% of projection – Annual growth factor also ± 50% of projection – 15% volatility around each annual growth value – Otherwise same DCF model • Use Monte Carlo: 2000 simulations each – Easy, routine - no special program 2 May 2007 Richard de Neufville / Michel-Alexandre Cardin © Draft Presentation for MIT Center for Real Estate 10 of 31 Case Recognizing Uncertainty • Example of Uncertain Market Value Pattern $620 $520 $420 $320 $220 $120 $20 2007 2012 2017 2022 2027 Year Projected Value per Square Foot Realized Value per Square Foot 2 May 2007 Projected Dev't Cost per Square Foot Richard de Neufville / Michel-Alexandre Cardin © Draft Presentation for MIT Center for Real Estate 11 of 31 Case Recognizing Uncertainty • NPV distribution for 2000 simulations 4.5% 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% $86.1 $80.1 $74.1 $68.1 $62.1 $56.1 $50.1 $44.1 $38.1 $32.1 $26.1 $20.1 $14.1 $8.2 $2.2 -$3.8 -$9.8 -$15.8 -$21.8 -$27.8 -$33.8 -$39.8 -$45.8 -$51.8 -$57.8 0.0% NPV (MILLIONS $) 2 May 2007 Richard de Neufville / Michel-Alexandre Cardin © Draft Presentation for MIT Center for Real Estate 12 of 31 Case Recognizing Uncertainty • Observations – Expected NPV is $3.17M, compared to $3.16M for static case • Relatively similar due to unconstrained nature of problem • Situation different from parking garage – Now deal with a distribution of outcomes rather than single value • Expected NPV (ENPV) rather than NPV 2 May 2007 Richard de Neufville / Michel-Alexandre Cardin © Draft Presentation for MIT Center for Real Estate 13 of 31 Case Recognizing Uncertainty • Value At Risk and Gain curve (VARG curve) 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% -$80.0 -$60.0 -$40.0 -$20.0 0% $0.0 $20.0 $40.0 $60.0 $80.0 $100.0 Millions NPV ($) VARG 2 May 2007 ENPV Static NPV Richard de Neufville / Michel-Alexandre Cardin © Draft Presentation for MIT Center for Real Estate 14 of 31 Flexible Case • Sources of flexibility – Develop park upfront all at once for $1M • Increases market value of built property by 10% ONLY when market value was increasing in previous year – Expand at strategic times • When market value of built property is 50% higher than development cost – Abandon • At year 20, when phase is undeveloped 2 May 2007 Richard de Neufville / Michel-Alexandre Cardin © Draft Presentation for MIT Center for Real Estate 15 of 31 Flexible Case • If recognize uncertainty, what are possible outcomes from managerial perspective? $620 $620 $520 $520 $420 $420 $320 $320 VS. $220 $120 $220 $120 $20 2007 2012 2017 2022 2027 $20 2007 2012 Year Projected Value per Square Foot Realized Value per Square Foot 2 May 2007 2022 2027 Year Projected Dev't Cost per Square Foot Value > Cost all time 2017 Projected Value per Square Foot Realized Value per Square Foot Projected Dev't Cost per Square Foot Value < Cost most times Richard de Neufville / Michel-Alexandre Cardin © Draft Presentation for MIT Center for Real Estate 16 of 31 Flexible Case • Positive NPV Scenario Year Develop? Abandon? Wait? Dev't value criteria Phase I value Phase I abandonment value Phase I dev't cost Develop? Abandon? Wait? Dev't value criteria Phase II value Phase II abandonment value Phase II dev't cost Develop? Abandon? Wait? Dev't value criteria Phase III value Phase III abandonment value Phase III dev't cost Develop? Abandon? Wait? Dev't value criteria Phase IV value Phase IV abandonment value Phase IV dev't cost Develop? Abandon? Wait? Dev't value criteria Phase V value Phase V abandonment value Phase V dev't cost Phase(s) completed Project abandoned? Acquisition cost Infrastructure cost Park development cost Value of built property Total cost Net value PV of built property PV total cost NPV Return over initial cost (incl. discount rate) 2 May 2007 2007 Develop $7,200,000 $0 $0 $11,000,000 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $23,276,250 $0 $0 Develop $18,751,000 $0 $0 $18,491,000 Wait $21,094,875 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $38,233,990 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $44,531,643 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 Wait $8,602,270 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 Phase I $15,000,000 $1,463,499 $1,000,000 $0 $28,463,499 -$28,463,499 $139,603,060 $112,442,848 $27,160,211 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 Develop $17,481,349 $0 $0 $21,322,434 Wait $21,366,093 $0 $0 $0 $0 $2,460,141 $0 $23,276,250 $20,951,141 $2,325,109 $0 $0 $0 Phase I $0 $2,836,850 $0 $0 $24,159,285 -$24,159,285 Develop $25,859,464 $0 $0 $26,712,272 Wait $23,508,604 $0 $0 $0 Phase II $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $59,004,637 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 Develop $24,588,622 $0 $0 $24,890,981 Phase III $0 $0 $0 $0 Phase IV $0 $52,649,235 $0 $0 Phase V $0 $3,553,943 $0 $38,233,990 $30,266,215 $7,967,775 $0 $3,311,629 $0 $44,531,643 $28,202,609 $16,329,033 $0 $0 $0 $59,004,637 $0 $59,004,637 $0 $0 $0 $52,649,235 $0 $52,649,235 95% Richard de Neufville / Michel-Alexandre Cardin © Draft Presentation for MIT Center for Real Estate 17 of 31 Flexible Case • Positive NPV Scenario Year 2007 Develop? Abandon? Wait? Develop Dev't value criteria $7,200,000 Phase I value $0 Phase I abandonment value $0 Phase I dev't cost $11,000,000 Develop? Abandon? Wait? Dev't value criteria Phase II value $0 Phase II abandonment value $0 Phase II dev't cost $0 Develop? Abandon? Wait? Dev't value criteria Phase III value $0 Phase III abandonment value $0 Phase III dev't cost $0 Develop? Abandon? Wait? Dev't value criteria Phase IV value $0 Phase IV abandonment value $0 Phase IV dev't cost $0 $920 Develop? Abandon? Wait? $820 Dev't value criteria Phase V value $0 $720 Phase V abandonment value $0 $620 Phase V dev't cost $0 Phase(s) completed $520 Project abandoned? $420 Acquisition cost $15,000,000 Infrastructure cost $1,463,499 $320 Park development cost $1,000,000 $220 Value of built property $0 $120 Total cost $28,463,499 Net value -$28,463,499 $20 PV of2012 built property 2017 $139,603,060 2007 2022 2027 PV total cost $112,442,848 Year NPV $27,160,211 Projected Value per Square Projected Dev't Cost per Square Foot Return overFoot initial cost (incl. discount 95% Realized Value per Square Foot rate) 2 May 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $23,276,250 $0 $0 Develop $18,751,000 $0 $0 $18,491,000 Wait $21,094,875 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $38,233,990 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $44,531,643 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 Wait $8,602,270 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 Phase I $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 Develop $17,481,349 $0 $0 $21,322,434 Wait $21,366,093 $0 $0 $0 $0 $2,460,141 $0 $23,276,250 $20,951,141 $2,325,109 $0 $0 $0 Phase I $0 $2,836,850 $0 $0 $24,159,285 -$24,159,285 Develop $25,859,464 $0 $0 $26,712,272 Wait $23,508,604 $0 $0 $0 Phase II $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $59,004,637 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 Develop $24,588,622 $0 $0 $24,890,981 Phase III $0 $0 $0 $0 Phase IV $0 $52,649,235 $0 $0 Phase V $0 $3,553,943 $0 $38,233,990 $30,266,215 $7,967,775 $0 $3,311,629 $0 $44,531,643 $28,202,609 $16,329,033 $0 $0 $0 $59,004,637 $0 $59,004,637 $0 $0 $0 $52,649,235 $0 $52,649,235 Richard de Neufville / Michel-Alexandre Cardin © Draft Presentation for MIT Center for Real Estate 18 of 31 Flexible Case • Negative NPV Scenario Year Develop? Abandon? Wait? Dev't value criteria Phase I value Phase I abandonment value Phase I dev't cost Develop? Abandon? Wait? Dev't value criteria Phase II value Phase II abandonment value Phase II dev't cost Develop? Abandon? Wait? Dev't value criteria Phase III value Phase III abandonment value Phase III dev't cost Develop? Abandon? Wait? Dev't value criteria Phase IV value Phase IV abandonment value Phase IV dev't cost Develop? Abandon? Wait? Dev't value criteria Phase V value Phase V abandonment value Phase V dev't cost Phase(s) completed Project abandoned? Acquisition cost Infrastructure cost Park development cost Value of built property Total cost Net value PV of built property PV total cost NPV 2 May 2007 2007 Wait $2,500,000 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 2021 Develop $7,817,520 $0 $0 $15,542,712 Wait $12,508,032 $0 $0 $0 Wait $14,071,536 $0 $0 $0 Wait $17,198,544 $0 $0 $0 Wait $15,635,040 $0 $0 $0 $0 $21,194,607 $0 $2,067,885 $0 $1,412,974 $0 $0 $0 $40,218,178 $0 -$40,218,178 $6,413,958 $17,788,539 -$11,374,581 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $23,695,280 $0 $0 Wait $11,785,149 $0 $0 $0 Wait $13,258,292 $0 $0 $0 Wait $16,204,579 $0 $0 $0 Wait $14,731,436 $0 $0 $0 Phase I $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 Wait $6,601,009 $0 $0 $0 Wait $7,426,135 $0 $0 $0 Wait $9,076,387 $0 $0 $0 Wait $8,251,261 $0 $0 $0 Phase I Wait $5,958,301 $0 $0 $0 Wait $6,703,088 $0 $0 $0 Wait $8,192,663 $0 $0 $0 Wait $7,447,876 $0 $0 $0 Phase I Wait $12,838,556 $0 $0 $0 Wait $14,443,376 $0 $0 $0 Wait $17,653,015 $0 $0 $0 Wait $16,048,195 $0 $0 $0 Phase I $0 $0 $0 $23,695,280 $0 $23,695,280 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 Abandon $5,854,494 $0 $2,498,636 $0 Abandon $6,586,305 $0 $0 $0 Abandon $8,049,929 $0 $0 $0 Abandon $7,318,117 $0 $0 $0 Phase I Abandoned $0 $0 $0 $2,498,636 $0 $2,498,636 Wait $11,698,569 $0 $0 $0 Wait $13,160,890 $0 $0 $0 Wait $16,085,532 $0 $0 $0 Wait $14,623,211 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 Richard de Neufville / Michel-Alexandre Cardin © Draft Presentation for MIT Center for Real Estate 19 of 31 Flexible Case • Negative NPV Scenario Year 2007 2021 Develop? Abandon? Wait? Wait Develop Dev't value criteria $2,500,000 $7,817,520 Phase I value $0 $0 Phase I abandonment value $0 $0 Phase I dev't cost $0 $15,542,712 Develop? Abandon? Wait? Wait Dev't value criteria $12,508,032 Phase II value $0 $0 Phase II abandonment value $0 $0 Phase II dev't cost $0 $0 Develop? Abandon? Wait? Wait Dev't value criteria $14,071,536 Phase III value $0 $0 Phase III abandonment value $0 $0 Phase III dev't cost $0 $0 Develop? Abandon? Wait? Wait Dev't value criteria $17,198,544 $620 Phase IV value $0 $0 Phase IV abandonment value $0 $0 $520 Phase IV dev't cost $0 $0 Develop? Abandon? Wait? Wait $420 Dev't value criteria $15,635,040 Phase V value $0 $0 Phase V abandonment value $0 $0 $320 Phase V dev't cost $0 $0 Phase(s) completed $220 Project abandoned? Acquisition cost $0 $21,194,607 $120 Infrastructure cost $0 $2,067,885 Park development cost $0 $1,412,974 Value of built property $0 $0 $20 Total 2012 cost $40,218,178 2007 2017 2022$0 2027 Net value $0 -$40,218,178 Year PV of built property $6,413,958 Projected Value Square Projected$17,788,539 Dev't Cost per Square Foot PV per total cost Foot Realized Value per Square Foot NPV -$11,374,581 2 May 2007 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $23,695,280 $0 $0 Wait $11,785,149 $0 $0 $0 Wait $13,258,292 $0 $0 $0 Wait $16,204,579 $0 $0 $0 Wait $14,731,436 $0 $0 $0 Phase I $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 Wait $6,601,009 $0 $0 $0 Wait $7,426,135 $0 $0 $0 Wait $9,076,387 $0 $0 $0 Wait $8,251,261 $0 $0 $0 Phase I Wait $5,958,301 $0 $0 $0 Wait $6,703,088 $0 $0 $0 Wait $8,192,663 $0 $0 $0 Wait $7,447,876 $0 $0 $0 Phase I Wait $12,838,556 $0 $0 $0 Wait $14,443,376 $0 $0 $0 Wait $17,653,015 $0 $0 $0 Wait $16,048,195 $0 $0 $0 Phase I $0 $0 $0 $23,695,280 $0 $23,695,280 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 Abandon $5,854,494 $0 $2,498,636 $0 Abandon $6,586,305 $0 $0 $0 Abandon $8,049,929 $0 $0 $0 Abandon $7,318,117 $0 $0 $0 Phase I Abandoned $0 $0 $0 $2,498,636 $0 $2,498,636 Wait $11,698,569 $0 $0 $0 Wait $13,160,890 $0 $0 $0 Wait $16,085,532 $0 $0 $0 Wait $14,623,211 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 Richard de Neufville / Michel-Alexandre Cardin © Draft Presentation for MIT Center for Real Estate 20 of 31 Flexible Case • NPV distribution for 2000 simulations 30.0% No investment scenarios 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% $90.5 $85.1 $79.7 $74.3 $68.9 $63.4 $58.0 $52.6 $47.2 $41.8 $36.4 $31.0 $25.6 $20.2 $14.8 $9.4 $4.0 -$1.5 -$6.9 -$12.3 -$17.7 -$23.1 -$28.5 -$33.9 -$39.3 0.0% NPV (MILLIONS $) 2 May 2007 Richard de Neufville / Michel-Alexandre Cardin © Draft Presentation for MIT Center for Real Estate 21 of 31 Flexible Case • Value At Risk and Gain curve (VARG curve) 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% -$80.0 -$60.0 -$40.0 -$20.0 0% $0.0 $20.0 $40.0 $60.0 $80.0 $100.0 $120.0 Millions NPV ($) VARG Flexible Case VARG Inflexible Case 2 May 2007 ENPV Flexible Case ENPV Inflexible Case Static NPV Richard de Neufville / Michel-Alexandre Cardin © Draft Presentation for MIT Center for Real Estate 22 of 31 Flexible Case • Value At Risk and Gain curve (VARG curve) 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% -$80.0 -$60.0 -$40.0 -$20.0 0% $0.0 $20.0 $40.0 NPV ($) VARG Flexible Case VARG Inflexible Case 2 May 2007 ENPV Flexible Case ENPV Inflexible Case $60.0 $100.0 $120.0 Increased upside Millions opportunities $80.0 Static NPV Richard de Neufville / Michel-Alexandre Cardin © Draft Presentation for MIT Center for Real Estate 23 of 31 Results • About distribution – Downside reduced, upside increased • Increased Expected NPV = ENPV • Consequences of recognizing uncertainty – sometimes wait – sometimes do not invest – sometimes abandon after starting the project • Sudden jump near zero NPV – Scenarios where do not invest compared to scenarios where profit is barely made over initial costs 2 May 2007 Richard de Neufville / Michel-Alexandre Cardin © Draft Presentation for MIT Center for Real Estate 24 of 31 Results • Static, “certain” case: no pre-investment in park NPV = $3.16M • Inflexible case: no pre-investment in park ENPV = $3.17M • Flexible case: pre-investment and timing flexibilities ENPV = $15.67M • Value of flexibility due to combination of strategic timing and pre-investment in park: E[VFlexibility] = MAX(0,E[NPVFlex.]-E[NPVInflex.]) = $12.5M 2 May 2007 Richard de Neufville / Michel-Alexandre Cardin © Draft Presentation for MIT Center for Real Estate 25 of 31 Results • Other valuation attributes, in Millions $: Expected initial investment Expected NPV Minimum NPV Maximum NPV DR) 2 May 2007 Inflexible $27.35 $3.17 -$60.56 $77.91 12% Flexible $21.35 $15.67 -$42.94 $94.19 73% Richard de Neufville / Michel-Alexandre Cardin © Draft Presentation for MIT Center for Real Estate Better? Flex. Better Flex. Better Flex. Better Flex. Better Flex. Better 26 of 31 Results • Static, “certain” case: with pre-investment in park NPV = $14.69M • Inflexible case: with pre-investment in park ENPV = $10.21M • Flexible case: pre-investment and timing flexibilities ENPV = $15.67M • Value of flexibility due to strategic timing: E[VFlexibility] = $(15.67 – 10.21)M = $5.46M – Deduced value of pre-investment in park: $12.5M - $5.5M = $7.0M 2 May 2007 Richard de Neufville / Michel-Alexandre Cardin © Draft Presentation for MIT Center for Real Estate 27 of 31 Results • Other valuation attributes, in Millions $: Expected initial investment Expected NPV Minimum NPV Maximum NPV Return over initial cost (incl. DR) 2 May 2007 Inflexible $28.13 $10.21 -$57.79 $95.46 Flexible $21.35 $15.67 -$42.94 $94.19 Better? Flex. Better Flex. Better Flex. Better Inflex. Better 36% 73% Flex. Better Richard de Neufville / Michel-Alexandre Cardin © Draft Presentation for MIT Center for Real Estate 28 of 31 Take-Aways • Easy method to deal with uncertainty – No special software required • Important to recognize uncertainty – It’s reality! • Recognizing uncertainty leads to flexible design and management • Improve expected NPV and other desirable attributes 2 May 2007 Richard de Neufville / Michel-Alexandre Cardin © Draft Presentation for MIT Center for Real Estate 29 of 31 Questions/Comments?