– Training Module –
Spring 2016
National Oceanic & Atmospheric
Administration
Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies
University of Wisconsin - Madison
Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere
Colorado State University
1
NOAA/CIMSS ProbSevere Model Goals
National Oceanic & Atmospheric
Administration
Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies
University of Wisconsin - Madison
Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere
Colorado State University
2
NOAA/CIMSS ProbSevere Model Goals
This statistical model predicts the probability that a storm will produce severe
weather in the near-term (in the next 60 min).
National Oceanic & Atmospheric
Administration
Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies
University of Wisconsin - Madison
Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere
Colorado State University
3
NOAA/CIMSS ProbSevere Model Goals
This statistical model predicts the probability that a storm will produce severe
weather in the near-term (in the next 60 min).
ProbSevere can be used as a ‘pre-polygon’ product as well as an aid for warning
reissuance.
National Oceanic & Atmospheric
Administration
Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies
University of Wisconsin - Madison
Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere
Colorado State University
4
Probability derived from: environment
National Oceanic & Atmospheric
Administration
Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies
University of Wisconsin - Madison
observations
Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere
Colorado State University
5
Probability derived from: environment
observations
RAP NWP: MUCAPE and Effective
Bulk Shear
National Oceanic & Atmospheric
Administration
Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies
University of Wisconsin - Madison
Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere
Colorado State University
6
Probability derived from: environment
observations
RAP NWP: MUCAPE and Effective
Bulk Shear
OBSERVATIONAL PREDICTORS:
• 2 satellite growth rates
• 1 instantaneous radar field
• 1 instantaneous total
lightning/effective bulk shear field
National Oceanic & Atmospheric
Administration
Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies
University of Wisconsin - Madison
Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere
Colorado State University
7
Probability derived from: environment
observations
RAP NWP: MUCAPE and Effective
Bulk Shear
OBSERVATIONAL PREDICTORS:
• 2 satellite growth rates
• 1 instantaneous radar field
• 1 instantaneous total
lightning/effective bulk shear field
The statistical model is driven by observations. The model does not predict cloud growth,
but observes cloud growth, precipitation core intensity, and total storm electrification.
Supplemental Training Link
National Oceanic & Atmospheric
Administration
Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies
University of Wisconsin - Madison
Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere
Colorado State University
8
What data does the model use?
High-resolution
NWP data
Storm Environment
National Oceanic & Atmospheric
Administration
Satellite Imagery
and Derived
Products
Cloud Tracking and Cloud
Growth Rates
Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies
University of Wisconsin - Madison
Radar Imagery and
Derived Products
Radar Tracking and
Storm Intensity
Total Lightning
Storm flash rate
Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere
Colorado State University
9
Automated integration of information
National Oceanic & Atmospheric
Administration
Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies
University of Wisconsin - Madison
Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere
Colorado State University
10
Automated integration of information
National Oceanic & Atmospheric
Administration
Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies
University of Wisconsin - Madison
Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere
Colorado State University
11
Automated integration of information
National Oceanic & Atmospheric
Administration
Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies
University of Wisconsin - Madison
Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere
Colorado State University
12
Data sources – Rapid Refresh (RAP)
• Effective bulk shear (EBS):
• Discriminates well between supercell and non-supercell convection
• Normalizes shear between storms with deep and shallow inflow layers
Supplemental Training Link
National Oceanic & Atmospheric
Administration
Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies
University of Wisconsin - Madison
Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere
Colorado State University
13
Data sources – Rapid Refresh (RAP)
• Effective bulk shear (EBS):
• Discriminates well between supercell and non-supercell convection
• Normalizes shear between storms with deep and shallow inflow layers
• Most-unstable CAPE (MUCAPE):
• Rough estimate of maximum updraft potential, even for elevated
convection.
Supplemental Training Link
National Oceanic & Atmospheric
Administration
Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies
University of Wisconsin - Madison
Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere
Colorado State University
14
Data sources – GOES-derived Cloud
Properties
• How much does a developing storm-top cool over a period of time?
• Infers vertical growth of convective clouds (and updraft strength)
Supplemental Training Link
National Oceanic & Atmospheric
Administration
Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies
University of Wisconsin - Madison
Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere
Colorado State University
15
Data sources – GOES-derived Cloud
Properties
• How much does a developing storm-top cool over a period of time?
• Infers vertical growth of convective clouds (and updraft strength)
• Rate-of-change in ice-cloud fraction:
• At cloud-top
• Infers vertical growth and glaciation rate (i.e., how fast is the cloud-top
changing from mostly liquid water to ice).
Supplemental Training Link
National Oceanic & Atmospheric
Administration
Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies
University of Wisconsin - Madison
Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere
Colorado State University
16
Data sources – MRMS products
• Maximum Expected Size of Hail (MESH):
• Empirically derived from the Severe Hail Index (SHI)
• SHI is a thermally-weighted vertical integration of reflectivity above the
melting level
(Figure from OU-CIMMS)
Supplemental Training Link
National Oceanic & Atmospheric
Administration
Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies
University of Wisconsin - Madison
Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere
Colorado State University
17
Data sources – ENI Total Lightning
• Earth Networks Total Lightning:
• Total flashes contained within radar objects are summed.
National Oceanic & Atmospheric
Administration
Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies
University of Wisconsin - Madison
Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere
Colorado State University
18
ProbSevere Model Real-Time Operations
Satellite, radar, lightning, and model data have different timescales
ProbSevere probabilities can change each time new data are available
In one hour…
1 set of RAP grids
ProbSevere
8 CONUS satellite
scans (in rapid scan)
30 lightning files
Input: 1300 MB
30 CONUS radar scans
National Oceanic & Atmospheric
Administration
Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies
University of Wisconsin - Madison
Output: 6 MB
30 output files (~0.2 MB/file)
Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere
Colorado State University
19
ProbSevere Model AWIPS-II Display
Model output are shapefiles contoured
around radar storm cells.
Enhancement designed for overlay atop
radar reflectivity—but can be overlaid on
any field (satellite, radar velocity, etc.).
Sampling offers readout of model
probability as well as each model
predictor.
National Oceanic & Atmospheric
Administration
Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies
University of Wisconsin - Madison
Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere
Colorado State University
20
ProbSevere Model AWIPS-II Display
SVR Prob: Probability of Severe 0100%.
National Oceanic & Atmospheric
Administration
Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies
University of Wisconsin - Madison
Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere
Colorado State University
21
ProbSevere Model AWIPS-II Display
Env MUCAPE: RAP composite
MUCAPE for storm environment.
National Oceanic & Atmospheric
Administration
Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies
University of Wisconsin - Madison
Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere
Colorado State University
22
ProbSevere Model AWIPS-II Display
Env EBShear: RAP composite effective
bulk shear for storm environment.
National Oceanic & Atmospheric
Administration
Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies
University of Wisconsin - Madison
Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere
Colorado State University
23
ProbSevere Model AWIPS-II Display
MRMS MESH: Storm maximum MESH.
Time and size (inches).
National Oceanic & Atmospheric
Administration
Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies
University of Wisconsin - Madison
Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere
Colorado State University
24
ProbSevere Model AWIPS-II Display
Norm Vert Growth Rate (Max):
Maximum storm cell satellite vertical
growth rate.
Time occurred, normalized vertical cloud
growth rate per minute.
Classified as weak, moderate, or strong.
National Oceanic & Atmospheric
Administration
Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies
University of Wisconsin - Madison
Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere
Colorado State University
25
ProbSevere Model AWIPS-II Display
Glaciation rate (Max): Maximum storm
cell satellite glaciation rate.
Time occurred, percentage of conversion
from water to ice cloud-tops per minute.
Classified as weak, moderate, or strong.
National Oceanic & Atmospheric
Administration
Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies
University of Wisconsin - Madison
Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere
Colorado State University
26
ProbSevere Model AWIPS-II Display
Flash Rate: Total lightning flash rate
within radar object. Time and flash rate
(flashes / min).
The lightning jump anomaly, while not
explicitly used in the ProbSevere model,
is also provided.
National Oceanic & Atmospheric
Administration
Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies
University of Wisconsin - Madison
Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere
Colorado State University
27
ProbSevere Model AWIPS-II Display
2016 HWT
National Oceanic & Atmospheric
Administration
Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies
University of Wisconsin - Madison
2016 WFO
Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere
Colorado State University
28
08 May 2014
National Oceanic & Atmospheric
Administration
Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies
University of Wisconsin - Madison
Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere
Colorado State University
29
1644 UTC May-082014
MUCAPE ~ 750 J kg-1
Eff. shear ~ 48 kts
Prob = 27%
Highly sheared environment
Low MESH
Low lightning
SD
IA
National Oceanic & Atmospheric
Administration
Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies
University of Wisconsin - Madison
Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere
Colorado State University
30
1646 UTC May-082014
MUCAPE ~ 750 J kg-1
Eff. shear ~ 48 kts
Prob = 54%
Strong satellite growth and
glaciation rates.
Small increase in lightning.
SD
IA
National Oceanic & Atmospheric
Administration
Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies
University of Wisconsin - Madison
Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere
Colorado State University
31
1648 UTC May-082014
MUCAPE ~ 750 J kg-1
Eff. shear ~ 48 kts
Prob = 78%
Strong satellite growth and
glaciation rates.
MESH increases to 0.89”.
Lightning continues to
increase.
SD
IA
National Oceanic & Atmospheric
Administration
Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies
University of Wisconsin - Madison
Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere
Colorado State University
32
1726 UTC May-082014
MUCAPE ~ 750 J kg-1
Eff. shear ~ 48 kts
Prob = 85%
KFSD issues SVR warning @
1726 UTC.
Golf ball sized hail report @
1732 UTC.
SD
IA
National Oceanic & Atmospheric
Administration
Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies
University of Wisconsin - Madison
Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere
Colorado State University
33
What information does the satellite provide?
1646 UTC May-082014
Prob = 54%
Prob = 27%
NWP + Satellite + Radar + Lightning
National Oceanic & Atmospheric
Administration
NWP + Satellite + Radar + Lightning
Time (UTC)
With Satellite
Without Satellite
1644
27% (no sat. growth yet)
27%
1646
54%
27%
1648
78%
54%
1728
85%
65%
Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies
University of Wisconsin - Madison
Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere
Colorado State University
34
05-06 May 2014
National Oceanic & Atmospheric
Administration
Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies
University of Wisconsin - Madison
Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere
Colorado State University
35
0210 UTC May-062014
MUCAPE ~ 650 J kg-1
Eff. shear ~ 35 kts
Prob = 9%
Low elevated CAPE
High shear
Strong 850 mb forcing
VA
NC
National Oceanic & Atmospheric
Administration
Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies
University of Wisconsin - Madison
Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere
Colorado State University
36
0212 UTC May-062014
MUCAPE ~ 650 J kg-1
Eff. shear ~ 35 kts
Prob = 23%
MESH increases to ~0.60”
VA
NC
National Oceanic & Atmospheric
Administration
Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies
University of Wisconsin - Madison
Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere
Colorado State University
37
0214 UTC May-062014
MUCAPE ~ 650 J kg-1
Eff. shear ~ 35 kts
Prob = 46%
MESH increased to ¾”
Flash rate increasing
VA
NC
National Oceanic & Atmospheric
Administration
Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies
University of Wisconsin - Madison
Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere
Colorado State University
38
0216 UTC May-062014
MUCAPE ~ 650 J kg-1
Eff. shear ~ 35 kts
Prob = 81%
Strong satellite growth rates
Strong sat. glaciation rates
VA
NC
National Oceanic & Atmospheric
Administration
Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies
University of Wisconsin - Madison
Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere
Colorado State University
39
0222 UTC May-062014
MUCAPE ~ 650 J kg-1
Eff. shear ~ 35 kts
Prob = 94%
MESH is now over 1.1”
Lightning continues to
increase.
VA
NC
National Oceanic & Atmospheric
Administration
Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies
University of Wisconsin - Madison
Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere
Colorado State University
40
0238 UTC May-062014
MUCAPE ~ 650 J kg-1
Eff. shear ~ 35 kts
Prob = 97%
Report of 1.25” hail.
SVR issued @ 0241 UTC.
VA
NC
National Oceanic & Atmospheric
Administration
Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies
University of Wisconsin - Madison
Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere
Colorado State University
41
15 Feb 2016
National Oceanic & Atmospheric
Administration
Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies
University of Wisconsin - Madison
Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere
Colorado State University
42
1838 UTC Feb-152016
MUCAPE ~ 2000 J kg-1
Eff. shear ~ 35 kts
Prob = 31%
Moderate CAPE
High Shear
Strong satellite growth rate
TX
National Oceanic & Atmospheric
Administration
LA
Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies
University of Wisconsin - Madison
Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere
Colorado State University
43
1840 UTC Feb-152016
MUCAPE ~ 2000 J kg-1
Eff. shear ~ 35 kts
Prob = 52%
Increasing MESH and
lightning
TX
National Oceanic & Atmospheric
Administration
LA
Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies
University of Wisconsin - Madison
Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere
Colorado State University
44
1842 UTC Feb-152016
MUCAPE ~ 2000 J kg-1
Eff. shear ~ 35 kts
Prob = 69%
Increasing MESH ~0.75”
TX
National Oceanic & Atmospheric
Administration
LA
Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies
University of Wisconsin - Madison
Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere
Colorado State University
45
1848 UTC Feb-152016
MUCAPE ~ 2000 J kg-1
Eff. shear ~ 35 kts
Prob = 85%
Lightning continues to
increase.
MESH approaching 1.00”
TX
National Oceanic & Atmospheric
Administration
LA
Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies
University of Wisconsin - Madison
Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere
Colorado State University
46
1854 UTC Feb-152016
MUCAPE ~ 2000 J kg-1
Eff. shear ~ 35 kts
Prob = 93%
TX
National Oceanic & Atmospheric
Administration
LA
Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies
University of Wisconsin - Madison
Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere
Colorado State University
47
1912 UTC Feb-152016
MUCAPE ~ 2000 J kg-1
Eff. shear ~ 35 kts
Prob = 86%
TX
National Oceanic & Atmospheric
Administration
LA
Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies
University of Wisconsin - Madison
Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere
Colorado State University
48
1924 UTC Feb-152016
MUCAPE ~ 2000 J kg-1
Eff. shear ~ 35 kts
Prob = 91%
1.0” hail report @ 1925 UTC
TX
National Oceanic & Atmospheric
Administration
LA
Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies
University of Wisconsin - Madison
Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere
Colorado State University
49
1928 UTC Feb-152016
MUCAPE ~ 2000 J kg-1
Eff. shear ~ 35 kts
Prob = 91%
SVR Warning @ 1928 UTC
TX
National Oceanic & Atmospheric
Administration
LA
Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies
University of Wisconsin - Madison
Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere
Colorado State University
50
1708 UTC Feb-152016
MUCAPE ~ 1650 J kg-1
Eff. shear ~ 23 kts
Prob = 5%
SVR Warning @ 1656 UTC
SVR Wind @ 1705 UTC
LA
MS
National Oceanic & Atmospheric
Administration
Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies
University of Wisconsin - Madison
Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere
Colorado State University
51
29 June 2014
National Oceanic & Atmospheric
Administration
Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies
University of Wisconsin - Madison
Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere
Colorado State University
52
2254 UTC June-292014
MUCAPE ~ 2700 J kg-1
Eff. shear ~ 9 kts
Prob = 17% (old); 1% (new)
High CAPE/low shear
GA
GA
without lightning
National Oceanic & Atmospheric
Administration
Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies
University of Wisconsin - Madison
WITH lightning
Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere
Colorado State University
53
2256 UTC June-292014
MUCAPE ~ 2700 J kg-1
Eff. shear ~ 9 kts
Prob = 53% (old); 4% (new)
High CAPE/low shear
MESH increased to 0.94”
GA
GA
without lightning
National Oceanic & Atmospheric
Administration
Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies
University of Wisconsin - Madison
WITH lightning
Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere
Colorado State University
54
2258 UTC June-292014
MUCAPE ~ 2700 J kg-1
Eff. shear ~ 9 kts
Prob = 76% (old); 11% (new)
High CAPE/low shear
MESH spikes to 1.33”
Small lightning increase
GA
GA
without lightning
National Oceanic & Atmospheric
Administration
Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies
University of Wisconsin - Madison
WITH lightning
Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere
Colorado State University
55
29-30 June 2014
National Oceanic & Atmospheric
Administration
Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies
University of Wisconsin - Madison
Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere
Colorado State University
56
0320 UTC June-302014
MUCAPE ~ 3800 J kg-1
Eff. shear ~ 45 kts
Prob = 36% (old); 90% (new)
IA
IA
High CAPE/High Shear.
Event morphing into QLCS.
High lightning/shear drives
higher probabilities.
Barn blown down @ 0330 UTC in
extreme SW WI.
WI
without lightning
National Oceanic & Atmospheric
Administration
Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies
University of Wisconsin - Madison
WI
WITH lightning
Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere
Colorado State University
57
National Oceanic & Atmospheric
Administration
Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies
University of Wisconsin - Madison
Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere
Colorado State University
58
2015 Configuration (no lightning)
2016 Configuration (with lightning)
Including total lightning/effective bulk shear 2-D predictor increased skill at all
probability thresholds.
Roughly constant CSI between 50 and 80% allows forecaster to choose higher
POD/FAR, more lead-time vs lower POD/FAR, less lead-time.
National Oceanic & Atmospheric
Administration
Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies
University of Wisconsin - Madison
Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere
Colorado State University
59
2015 Configuration (no lightning)
2016 Configuration (with lightning)
2016 version of ProbSevere more closely follows the 1-to-1 (perfect reliability line)
than the 2015 version—overforecasts still exist, but to a lesser degree.
National Oceanic & Atmospheric
Administration
Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies
University of Wisconsin - Madison
Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere
Colorado State University
60
MUCAPE 0-1500 J/kg
Eff. Bulk
Shear
0-20 kts
MUCAPE 1500-2500 J/kg
MUCAPE 2500+ J/kg
Small
Sample
Size
Small
Sample
Size
Eff. Bulk
Shear
20-30 kts
Eff. Bulk
Shear
30+ kts
National Oceanic & Atmospheric
Administration
Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies
University of Wisconsin - Madison
Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere
Colorado State University
61
 “Washed-out” satellite trends during 30-min scan gaps (full disk scans
every 3 hrs)  underforecast
 Thick cirrus shields  underforecast (model operates with NWP + radar +
lightning)
 Linear convective modes  underforecast (esp. with low lightning and low
MESH)
 Single-radar coverage  underforecast / overforecast
 Tornadogenesis mechanism not represented in predictors
 ProbSevere research will transition into hazard specific (wind, hail,
tornado), which will help address these limitations.
National Oceanic & Atmospheric
Administration
Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies
University of Wisconsin - Madison
Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere
Colorado State University
62
 This model will not give forecasters guidance on the type of severe hazard
 This model will not provide lead time to every storm
 Forecasters must still bear in mind environmental factors (in addition to instability
and shear)
 The model is most skillful and provides most lead-time when the satellite can
observe the development of the storm from immature cumulus to mature
cumulonimbus
National Oceanic & Atmospheric
Administration
Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies
University of Wisconsin - Madison
Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere
Colorado State University
63
National Oceanic & Atmospheric
Administration
Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies
University of Wisconsin - Madison
Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere
Colorado State University
64
•
Cintineo, J. L., M. J. Pavolonis, J. M. Sieglaff, and D.T. Lindsey, 2014: An empirical model for
assessing the severe weather potential of developing convection. Weather and Forecasting., 29, 639653.
•
Cintineo, J. L., M. J. Pavolonis, J. M. Sieglaff, and A. K. Heidinger, 2013: Evolution of severe and non-severe
convection inferred from GOES-derived cloud properies. J. Appl. Meteorol. Climatol., 52, 2009-2023.
•
Lakshmanan, V., T. Smith, G. Stumpf, and K. Hondl, 2007: The Warning Decision Support System-Integrated
Information. Weather and Forecasting, 22, doi:10.1175/WAF1009.1
•
Pavolonis, M. J., 2010: Advances in Extracting Cloud Composition Information from Spaceborne Infrared
Radiances-A Robust Alternative to Brightness Temperatures. Part I: Theory. Journal of Applied Meteorology
and Climatology, 49, doi:10.1175/2010JAMC2433.1.
•
Pavolonis, M.J., 2010: ABI Cloud Type/Phase Algorithm Theoretical Basis Document. NOAA NESDIS
Center for Satellite Applications and Research (STAR), 60 pp.
•
Sieglaff, Justin M., D. C. Hartung, W. F. Feltz, L. M. Cronce, V. Lakshmanan, 2013: A satellite-based
convective cloud object tracking and multipurpose data fusion tool with application to developing convection.
J. Atmos. Oceanic Technol., 30, 510–525.
•
Witt, A., M. D. Eilts, G. J. Stumpf, J. T. Johnson, E. D. W. Mitchell, K. W. Thomas, 1998: An Enhanced Hail
Detection Algorithm for the WSR-88D. Wea. Forecasting, 13, 286–303.
National Oceanic & Atmospheric
Administration
Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies
University of Wisconsin - Madison
Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere
Colorado State University
65
•
Mike Pavolonis (michael.pavolonis@noaa.gov)
•
John Cintineo (john.cintineo@ssec.wisc.edu)
•
Justin Sieglaff (justin.sieglaff@ssec.wisc.edu)
•
Dan Lindsey (dan.lindsey@noaa.gov)
To access this training online and access supplement training material links from this presentation
please see:
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/severe_conv/training/training.html
See ProbSevere blog posts from previous HWTs:
http://goesrhwt.blogspot.com/search/label/ProbSevere
National Oceanic & Atmospheric
Administration
Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies
University of Wisconsin - Madison
Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere
Colorado State University
66