Strategic Planning of R&D

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Strategic Planning of R&D
Outline
 Risk Factors in R&D
 Strategic Focus
 Stage-Gate Process
 Technology Choice Case
MASSACHUSETTS INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY
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Company Births and Deaths*
 1995: 594,000 births & 497,000 deaths
 2002: 580,900 births & 576,200 deaths
 2005: 670,058 births & 599,333 deaths
* SBA Office of Advocacy
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Attrition Rate of
New-Product Ideas
For every 11 serious ideas
* 3 enter development
* 1.3 are launched
* 1 succeeds
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Attempts to Start
New Business
 One success in ten
 The odds are much poorer for
new ideas
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The Business Plan Funnel*
Business Plan Received (600)
Listen to presentation (60)
Visit (20)
Due Diligence / Negotiation (12)
Investment (3)
* Brookwood Partners
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Causes of New Product Failure
Inadequate Market
Analysis
Product Problems or
Defects
Lack of Effective
Marketing Effort
Higher Costs than
Anticipated
Competitive Strength or
Reaction
Poor Timing of Initiative
45%
40%
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
MASSACHUSETTS INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY
Technical or Production
Problems
All Other Causes
-7-
Failures not merely negligence

Attributable to lack of
−
understanding customer requirements
−
creating dramatic differences in
current capabilities
−
understanding additional capabilities
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The Suicide Square
Increased Risk
New Technology
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The Suicide Square
Increased Risk
New Technology
New Product
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The Suicide Square
Increased Risk
New Technology
New Product
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New Market
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The Suicide Square
Increased Risk
New Technology
New Product
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New Market
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Risk Matrices
New
Markets
Market Risk
Ordinary Returns
Market and Tech Risk
“The Death Zone”
Low Risk
Low Returns
Technology Risk
High Returns
Existing
Existing
New
Technology
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CD Risk Matrix 1981
Sony, Philips, Matsushita
Markets
New
Sell floppy disks
to the PC
market
Sell CD’s to the
PC market
Vinyl records
to audio market
Sell CD’s to the
Audio market
Existing
Existing
New
Technology
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CD Risk Matrix 1985-1996
Sony, Philips, Matsushita
Markets
New
Sell CD’s to the
PC market
Sell DVD’s to the
Video Game market
Sell CD’s to the
Audio market
Sell DVD’s to the
Video market
Existing
Existing
New
Technology
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Technology Management
 Strategic focus
 Business process
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Strategic Focus
 Choose attractive strategic markets or market
segments to participate in.
 Find “Beacons” in selected markets and market
segments.
 Identify core competencies needed to address
products, markets and applications.
 Plan a product, market, application / competency
succession strategy.
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Business
PRODUCT
MARKET
APPLICATION
Product: What we supply to add value.
Market: Who we supply the value to.
Application: How customers use the product to
realize value.
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Business
PRODUCT
MARKET
Automotive
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APPLICATION
Business
PRODUCT
MARKET
Hose
&Tubing
Assemblies
VW Group
GM/ Opel
BMW/ Rover
Ford
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APPLICATION
Business
PRODUCT
MARKET
Hose
&Tubing
Assemblies
VW
GM
BMW
Ford
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APPLICATION
AC Systems
Technology Strategy vs.
Corporate Strategy
 Identify the firm’s “Core Competency”
 Specify the types of products, markets,
applications and technologies for focus
 Specify the role technology innovation plays
in achieving the firm's overall objectives
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Strategic Resources:
Focus and Risk
 Assign resources to reflect strategic focus.
 Assign resources according to the acceptable
level of risk.
 Reconcile differences between the stated
strategy and specified resources.
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Stage – Gate Process
Go/ No-Go
Screen
Go/ No-Go
Screen
Investigate
Develop
Go/ No-Go
Screen
Develop
Launch
Ideas
1st
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2nd STAGE 3rd
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nth
Modified Stage-Gate with
Continuous Customer Interaction
Customer
Strategic
focus
IDEA
Customer
Development
n-th
Development
New product
Concurrent Business Development
 Cross-disciplinary teams
 Knowledge must broaden
− Engineers are “technical” experts; but must
understand the business
− Managers are “business” experts; but must
understand the technology
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Case Study: Technology Choice
 Grumman Corporation
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Basic Factors in
Evaluating a Technology
 Will the technology satisfy a market sometime in the
future (Market Need)?
− Does it provide improved performance?
− Does it reduce costs?
− Is its market penetration rate acceptable?
 When will the product become significant (Timing)?
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Basic Factors in
Evaluating a Technology (cont.)
 Will the technology be commercially viable
(Economics)?
− Does the market exist or will it be created?
− Does the potential market size justify the
investment?
− Is the production process feasible and practical?
− Is the product profitable to manufacture?
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Solar grid parity is close
MASSACHUSETTS INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY
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MASSACHUSETTS INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY
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Solar’s Challenge: Scale
Global Cell Production
9,000
7,910
8,000
7,000
MWs
6,000
5,000
4,279
4,000
2,536
3,000
2,000
1,000
202
287
401
560
750
1,256
1,815
0
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
 Despite record growth, generation from PV still is only
0.2% of total global electricity
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Our energy supply will change and PV will
play a big role
100%
Renewables:
• Hydro
• Solar Electric
• Wind
• Bio-fuels
• Geothermal
Wood
80%
Coal
60%
Oil
40%
Gas
20%
Hydro
Nuclear
0%
1800
1850
1900
1950
Year
Source: Energy Information Agency
MASSACHUSETTS INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY
2000
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2050
2100
MIT OpenCourseWare
http://ocw.mit.edu
2.96 / 2.961 / 6.930 / 10.806 / 16.653 Management in Engineering
Fall 2012
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