Statewide Regional Evacuation Study Program
Volume 1-8 Tampa Bay
Volume 1-8
Tampa Bay Region
Technical Data Report
CHAPTER VI
EVACUATION TRANSPORTATION ANALYSIS
Evacuation Transportation Analysis
Page VI-1
Volume 1-8 Tampa Bay
Statewide Regional Evacuation Study Program
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Evacuation Transportation Analysis
Statewide Regional Evacuation Study Program
Volume 1-8 Tampa Bay
TABLE OF CONTENTS
A. Background and Purpose .................................................................................5
B. Study Area .....................................................................................................5
C. Input and Coordination ...................................................................................6
D. Evacuation Modeling Methodology and Framework ............................................6
E. Regional Model Implementation .......................................................................9
F. TIME User Interface ......................................................................................21
G. Vulnerable Population....................................................................................21
H. Evacuation Model Scenarios...........................................................................26
I. Clearance Time Results .................................................................................26
J. Maximum Evacuating Population Clearances....................................................33
K. Sensitivity Analysis ........................................................................................33
L. Summary and Conclusions .............................................................................36
LIST OF TABLES
Table
Table
Table
Table
Table
Table
Table
Table
Table
Table
Table
Table
Table
Table
Table
Table
VI-1
VI-2
VI-3
VI-4
VI-5
VI-6
VI-7
VI-8
VI-9
VI-10
VI-11
VI-12
VI-13
VI-14
VI-15
VI-16
Tampa Bay Demographic Characteristic Summary .................................... 13
Tampa Bay Region Roadway Improvements, 2006-2010 .......................... 15
Tampa Bay Planned Roadway Improvements, 2011-2015 ........................ 16
Vulnerable Population in the Tampa Bay Region for 2010......................... 22
Vulnerable Population in the Tampa Bay Region for 2015......................... 23
Vulnerable Population by Destination for 2010 .......................................... 24
Vulnerable Population by Destination for 2015 .......................................... 25
Vulnerable Shadow Evacuation Population ................................................ 25
Base Scenarios........................................................................................... 27
Operational Scenarios ............................................................................... 28
2010 Clearance Times for Base Scenario .................................................. 31
2015 Clearance Times for Base Scenario .................................................. 31
2010 Clearance Times for Operational Scenarios...................................... 32
2015 Clearance Times for Operational Scenarios...................................... 32
Maximum Evacuating Population by Time Interval for 2010 ..................... 34
Maximum Evacuating Population by Time Interval for 2015 ..................... 35
LIST OF FIGURES
Figure
Figure
Figure
Figure
Figure
Figure
VI-1
VI-2
VI-3
VI-4
VI-5
VI-6
General Model Flow
Tampa Bay Regional Model Network
Tampa Bay Regional Model Traffic Evacuation Zone Map
Evacuation Participation Rates: Hillsborough County - Site-Built Homes
Evacuation Participation Rates: Hillsborough County - Mobile Homes
Evacuation Participation Rates: Manatee County - Site Built Homes
Evacuation Transportation Analysis
8
11
12
17
17
18
Page VI-3
Volume 1-8 Tampa Bay
Figure
Figure
Figure
Figure
Figure
VI-7
VI-8
VI-9
VI-10
VI-11
Page VI-4
Statewide Regional Evacuation Study Program
Evacuation Participation Rates: Manatee County - Mobile Homes
Evacuation Participation Rates: Pasco County - Site Built Homes
Evacuation Participation Rates: Pasco County - Mobile Homes
Evacuation Participation Rates: Pinellas County - Site Built Homes
Evacuation Participation Rates: Pinellas County - Mobile Homes
18
19
19
20
20
Evacuation Transportation Analysis
Statewide Regional Evacuation Study Program
Volume 1-8 Tampa Bay
CHAPTER VI
EVACUATION
TRANSPORTATION ANALYSIS
The evacuation transportation analysis discussed in this chapter
documents the methodology, analysis, and results of the transportation component of the
Statewide Regional Evacuation Study Program (SRESP). Among the many analyses required for
the SRESP study, transportation analysis is probably one of the most important components in
the process. By bringing together storm intensity, transportation network, shelters, and
evacuation population, transportation analysis explicitly links people’s behavioral responses to
the regional evacuation infrastructure and helps formulate effective and responsive evacuation
policy options. Due to the complex calculations involved and numerous evacuation scenarios
that need to be evaluated, the best way to conduct the transportation analysis is through the
use of computerized transportation simulation programs, or transportation models.
A.
Background and Purpose
Over the years, different planning agencies have used different modeling approaches with
varying degrees of complexity and mixed success. Some have used full-blown conventional
transportation models such as the standard Florida model FSUTMS; others have used a
combination of a simplified conventional model and a spreadsheet program, such as the
Abbreviated Transportation Model (ATM) as in the 2006 Tampa Bay Study Update. These
models have different data requirements, use different behavioral assumptions, employ
different traffic assignment algorithms, and produce traffic analysis results with different levels
of detail and accuracy. These differences make it difficult for planning agencies to share
information and data with each other. They also may produce undesirable conditions for staff
training and knowledge sharing.
One of the objectives of the SRESP is to create consistent and integrated regional evacuation
data and mapping, and by doing so, to facilitate knowledge sharing between state, regional,
county, and local partners. To achieve this objective, it is important for all Regional Planning
Councils to adopt the same data format and to use the same modeling methodologies for their
transportation analyses. The primary purpose of the transportation component of the SRESP is
to develop a unified evacuation transportation modeling framework that can be implemented
with the data collected by the Regional Planning Councils.
B.
Study Area
The study area for this analysis includes the four county Tampa Bay Regional Planning Council
area. The transportation modeling methodology includes some processes that are performed at
the statewide level, in order to determine the impacts of evacuations from other regions
impacting the evacuation clearance times in the Tampa Bay region. While the impact of other
regions is included in the Tampa Bay analysis, it is important to note that the results of the
transportation analysis presented in this document are only reported for the four counties
included in the Tampa Bay RPC. Transportation analysis results for other regions and counties
are reported in the corresponding Volume 4 report for those regions.
Evacuation Transportation Analysis
Page VI-5
Volume 1-8 Tampa Bay
C.
Statewide Regional Evacuation Study Program
Input and Coordination
The development of the transportation methodology and framework required coordination and
input from all eleven regional planning councils in Florida, along with the Division of Emergency
Management, Department of Transportation, Department of Community Affairs, and local
county emergency management teams. At the statewide level, the transportation consultant,
Wilbur Smith Associates, participated in SRESP Work Group Meetings which were typically held
on a monthly basis to discuss the development of the transportation methodology and receive
feedback and input from the State agencies and RPCs.
At the local and regional level, Wilbur Smith Associates conducted a series of four regional
meetings to coordinate with and receive input from local county emergency management, the
regional planning council, local transportation planning agencies and groups, as well as other
interested agencies.
D. Evacuation Modeling Methodology and Framework
The evacuation modeling methodology and framework was developed during 2008 and 2009 in
coordination with all eleven Regional Planning Councils and the Division of Emergency
Management. The methodology used in the Tampa Bay RPC Evacuation Transportation Analysis
is identical to the methodology used for all eleven Regional Planning Councils and includes the
following components:
•
Behavioral Assumptions – In 2008, the Statewide Regional Evacuation Study
Program (SRESP) commissioned a survey of Florida residents. The purpose of this
survey was to develop an understanding of the behavior of individuals when faced with
the prospect of an impending evacuation. These data were used to develop a set of
“planning assumptions” that describe the way people respond to an order to evacuate
and are an important input to the SRESP Evacuation Model. The behavioral data
provides insights into how people respond to the changing conditions leading up to and
during an evacuation. The primary application of the survey data was to help anticipate
how people would respond with respect to five behaviors:
o
o
o
o
o
How many people would evacuate?
When they would leave?
What type of refuge they would seek?
Where they would travel for refuge?
How many vehicles would they use?
These evacuation behaviors are distinguished based on several descriptive variables as
listed below:
o Type of dwelling unit (site-built home versus mobile home);
o The evacuation zone in which the evacuee reside; and,
o The intensity of the evacuation that has been ordered.
•
Zone System and Highway Network - The SRESP evacuation model relies upon
data that covers the entire State of Florida as well as areas covering the States of
Page VI-6
Evacuation Transportation Analysis
Statewide Regional Evacuation Study Program
Volume 1-8 Tampa Bay
Georgia, Alabama, Mississippi, South Carolina, North Carolina, and Tennessee. While the
primary focus of the model is with evacuation behavior within Florida, areas outside of
the state had to be considered in order to allow a more precise routing of evacuation
traffic. This allows the model to measure the flow of traffic across the state line if
needed.
The data included in this system contain the demographic information crucial to
modeling evacuation traffic. The demographic information is labeled as “small area
data”. These data provide population and dwelling unit information that will identify
where the individuals in the region reside. The planning assumptions developed from
the behavioral analysis conducted for this study were applied to these demographic
data. The result is a set of evacuation trips generated by the evacuation model. The
number of these trips will vary depending on the hazard conditions that prompt the
evacuation. Small area data geographies were aggregated into larger units known as
Traffic Evacuation Zones (TEZ). These TEZ form the basic unit of analysis in the
evacuation model. The final TEZ system for the State of Florida has 17,328 zones. This
number provides sufficient detail to accurately accommodate the assignment of
evacuation trips onto an evacuation network.
•
Background Traffic - The traffic that consumes the roadway capacity of a
transportation system during an evacuation can be divided into two groups. The first
group is the evacuation traffic itself. Once the evacuation demand is determined, this
information is converted into a number of vehicles evacuating over time. These
evacuation trips are then placed on a representation of the highway network by a
model. The model determines the speed at which these trips can move and proceeds to
move the evacuation trips accordingly. The result is a set of clearance times.
The second group of traffic is known as background traffic. Background traffic, as its
name implies, is not the primary focus of an evacuation transportation analysis and is
accounted for primarily to impede the movement of evacuation trips through the
network. These trips represent individuals going about their daily business mostly
unconcerned with the evacuation event. For the most part, background traffic
represents trips that are relatively insensitive to an order to evacuate and are thus said
to be occurring in the “background.” Even though background traffic is relatively
insensitive to evacuation orders, it is important to account for background traffic since it
can have a dramatic impact on available roadway capacity. This in turn can severely
affect evacuation clearance times.
•
Evacuation Traffic - The model flow for the evacuation model is divided into a
total of eight modeling steps. The following eight steps are represented graphically in
the flowchart in Figure VI-1:
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
Identify evacuation conditions and initialize model;
Determine number of evacuation trips;
Split trips into destination purposes;
Distribute trips throughout study area;
Factor trip tables into time segment matrices;
Adjust background traffic;
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Volume 1-8 Tampa Bay
Statewide Regional Evacuation Study Program
7. Load trips onto highway network; and,
8. Post process model outputs.
Figure VI-1 General Model Flow
Identify
evacuation
conditions and
initialize model
•
Determine number
of evacuation trips.
Adjust background
traffic.
Factor trip tables
into time segment
matrices.
Load trips onto
highway network.
Post process
model outputs.
Split trips into
destination
purposes.
Distribute trips
throughout study
area.
Dynamic Traffic Assignment - Dynamic traffic assignment (DTA) was utilized in
the evacuation methodology because it is sensitive to individual time increments. DTA
works by assigning a certain number of vehicles to the highway network in a given
interval of time. The model then tracks the progress of these trips through the network
over the interval. Another set of vehicles is assigned during the following time interval.
The model then tracks the progress of these trips through the network along with the
progress of the trips loaded in the previous time interval. As vehicles begin to arrive at
the same segments of roadway, they interact with one another to create congestion.
When vehicles that were loaded to the network in subsequent intervals of time arrive at
the congested links, they contribute to the congestion as well. This results in a slowing
down of the traffic and eventually spill-backs and queuing delays. It is this time
dependent feature of DTA that makes it well suited to evacuation modeling. By
dynamically adjusting the travel times and speeds of the vehicles moving through the
network as they respond to congestion the model is able to do the following:
o
o
o
Page VI-8
The evacuation model is able to estimate the critical clearance time statistics
needed for this study;
The model takes into account the impact of compounded congestion from
multiple congestion points;
The model is able to adjust the routing of traffic throughout the network as a
function of congestion as it occurs throughout the evacuation; and,
Evacuation Transportation Analysis
Statewide Regional Evacuation Study Program
o
•
Volume 1-8 Tampa Bay
The model is capable of adjusting its capacities from time segment to time
segment, making it possible to represent such phenomena as reverse lane
operations and background traffic.
Prototype Model Development - Wilbur Smith Associates developed a prototype
model to test the modeling methodology used to calculate evacuation clearance times.
The prototype model demonstrated the viability of the methodology developed for this
study. This included the use of dynamic traffic assignment, background traffic curves,
regional sub-area trip balancing, the use of survey rates, the use of 100% participation
rates, response curves, and county-by-county phasing of evacuations. The prototype
model served as the backbone for all regional evacuation models that have been
developed for this study. The models implemented for each RPC use a structure similar
to the prototype with identical methodology.
E. Regional Model Implementation
The regional model developed for the Tampa Bay Region used a series of input data provided
by the RPC, including the following:
•
Regional Model Network - The regional model network consists of the RPC
designated evacuation routes as well as a supporting roadway network that facilitates
movement of evacuation traffic. The 2005 Florida Department of Transportation (FDOT)
Statewide Model Network was used as a basis for developing the regional model
network, while the evacuation routes were obtained from the Tampa Bay RPC. The RPC
relied on the emergency managers of its constituent counties to provide it with
information on which roads were to be included as evacuation routes. The resulting
model network was updated to 2006 conditions and is referred to as the base model
network. Figure VI-2 identifies the model network and evacuation routes for the
TBRPC. County level details of the regional model network are provided in the Volume 58 report. The regional model network for the Tampa Bay region includes key roadways
within the four county region, including I-4, I-75, I-275, US 301, US 19, SR 39, SR 64,
SR 70, SR 52, and SR 54.
•
Regional Zone System - The regional zone system is based on Traffic Evacuation
Zones (TEZ) and contains the regional demographic information, which includes housing
and population data that is essential to modeling evacuation traffic. There are 1,673
TEZs located within the four county Tampa Bay region, as illustrated in Figure VI-3. In
the Tampa Bay region, Pinellas County has the largest number of TEZs with 631, with
Hillsborough following 505 TEZs. Manatee and Pasco Counties have the lowest number
of TEZs within the RPC 332 and 205 zones, respectively. The larger numbers of TEZs
generally reflect counties with dense urban structure and higher population densities.
•
Regional Demographic Characteristics - Demographic data were developed for
the following years: 2006, 2010, and 2015. A snapshot of the key demographic data for
each county in the Tampa Bay RPC for 2006, 2010 and 2015 is summarized in Table
VI-1. The tables list the number of occupied dwelling units for site built homes, the
permanent population in site-built homes, as well as the number of occupied dwelling
units for mobile homes and the permanent population in mobile homes. The mobile
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Page VI-9
Volume 1-8 Tampa Bay
Statewide Regional Evacuation Study Program
home category includes RVs and boats and the permanent population in those housing
options. The demographic characteristics summary also includes hotels and motels
because many of these units are in vulnerable areas, and the proportion of seasonal
units and hotel/motel units that are occupied at any point in time will have an important
impact on the total population that may participate in an evacuation.
Page VI-10
Evacuation Transportation Analysis
Figure VI-2
Tampa Bay Regional Model Network
Hernando
Note: County level network details
are available in Volume 5-8
Evacuation Transportation
Supplemental Data Report.
¬
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¤
19
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52
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75
Map Legend
County Boundary
0
1.5
I
3
6
9
12
Miles
62
Manatee
Evacuation Routes
Supporting Model Network Roads
¬
«
¬
«
64
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301
Sarasota
This map is prepared under the direction of Florida
Division of Emergency Management for the
Regional Evacuation Study Update. This map
is for planning purposes only. Not to be used
for measurement or legal purposes. Please
consult with your county for the latest information.
Sources: Tampa Bay Regional Planning Council, Wilbur Smith Associates
Map Printed:
May , 2010
Figure VI-3
Tampa Bay Regional Model Transportation
Evacuation Zone System (TEZ)
Hernando
Note: County level zone system details
are available in Volume 5-8
Evacuation Transportation
Supplemental Data Report.
3157
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4917
4665
3329
4757
4720 4713 4710
4739
4751
4712
4916
4749 4748
4721
4729
4746 4745 4750
3328
4731
4915 4914
4722
3330
4711
4744
4742 4741 4740
4728
4723 4782
3326
4769
4778 4780 4784
4913
4771 4773 4774 4775
4776
4770
4777
4772
3327
4911
3325
4791 4789 4788 4787 4779 4781 4785
4911
4795
4793 4792 4790
4786
4912
4798
4800
4802
4796
3323
4794 4809
4810 4811 4843 4845 4847 4819 4829 4808
3324
4831 4834
4910
4908
4909
48484816 4865 4868
4832 4835 4836 4839 4844 4856
4864
4861
3322
4857
4869
4833
4905
4850
4866 4870
4858
4906 4905
4837 4840
4849 4851
3321
4862 4863 4871
4907
3316
4859
4841 4842
3319
4867
4905
4894 4855
4872
3314
49014902
4878
3320
4893 4890
4853 4873
3315
4879
3306
4880 4875
3318
4892 4889
3317
4903 4904
4897 4891
4876
4885 4883
3310
4897 4887
3307
4900 4898
3309
4897
4891 4886 4884 4882 4877
4900
4897 4888
4900
3308
4899
3300
3313
3311
4899
3312
4896
4896
3304
3305
3303
4896
4896
3301
4896
4896
3302
4896
4381 4382
4378 4379 4377
4386
44114380
4410 4409 4408
4404 4402
4413 4414 4407
4401
4406 4405
44124423
4426
4403 4400
4429
4421
4424 4427
4431 4433
4434
4422 4425 44284430 4432
4394
3794
3795
3796
3758
3759
3761
Polk
Hillsborough
Pinellas
3987
4895
3986
3989
3300
3991 3990
4012
4013
4014
4015
3939
3985
3988
3993 3992
3983
3982
3923
3940
3984
3942
3941
3911
3912
3910
3938
3937
4011
3943
3935 3936
4016 40093995
3980
3933
4018 4017
3994
3945
4021 4019
4008
3981
3934
4020
3944
3979
3932
3977
4026
3947
4007 4005 4004 3996 3978
4212
3946
4025
3948
4022
4027
4006 4003
3976
3931
40234033 4028 4032 4001 4002
4213
3947
3997
4010
40244034
4214
4043 4000 3998
4035
3930
3949
4201
3999
4215
4040
4202
3952
4200
4216
4042
3956
3929
4053
4195 4196 4197
4203
4045 4044
4217
3975
4194
4051
4199 4136 4144 4166
4219
3958
4198
3974 3951 3950 3953
3928
4161 4054 4050
4204
4220
4046
4189 4191 4192 4193 4134
3957
4139 4153 4168 4056
4049
4049 4048
4160 4169
4188 4190
4058 4049
4133 4138
4047
3927
4222
4048
4159
4187
4059
4205
4221
4064 3973
3954
41834184 4185 4186 4126 4130
3959
4062
4207
4064
4060
41314132
4208 4182
4063
4061
4206
41254127 4129
4124
4224
4180 4118
4209 4177
4122
4065 4066
4178 4179
4119
4181
4068
4069 3972
4120 4123
4223
3926
4069
4211
4067
4114
3955
4210
3960
4172
4226
4115 4116 4117
4173 4174 4176
4070 4071
4226
41124113
40734074
3970
4175
4075
4109 4111
4171
4225
4227
4072
4106
4110
4105
3969
4103
4098
4227
3962
4104
3925
4097 4077 4078
4099
3963
3968
4079
3971
4101 4100 4096 4076
4228 4229
4080
4093
4081 4082 4083 4084
4095 4095 4094
3964
3961
4092
3924
42304231
3967
4089
4231
3965
4091 4090 4088 4087 4086 4085
3966
4231
3922
4013
3909
4022
Manatee
Map Legend
Traffic Evacuation Zones (TEZ)
99
County Boundary
3908
3921
3907
3920
3918
3921
3919
3919
3906
3917
3905
3904
3903
0
1.5
I
3
6
9
12
Miles
This map is prepared under the direction of Florida
Division of Emergency Management for the
Regional Evacuation Study Update. This map
is for planning purposes only. Not to be used
for measurement or legal purposes. Please
consult with your county for the latest information.
Sources: Tampa Bay Regional Planning Council, Wilbur Smith Associates
Sarasota
3902
3901
Map Printed:
3900
May , 2010
Statewide Regional Evacuation Study Program
Volume 1-8 Tampa Bay
Hillsborough County has the largest population in the region during all three time
periods. The county is expected to reach over 1.4 million people by 2015. Pinellas
County has the second largest population in the region, and this county is far more
densely populated than the other counties, including Hillsborough. This is very
significant in the behavior of the evacuation transportation model because most of the
population in Pinellas lives close to a coastline and in an evacuation zone. Both Manatee
and Pasco Counties are forecasted to experience an almost 25% increase in population
between 2006 and 2015; conversely, Pinellas County is expected to have a nominal 5%
increase.
Table VI-1 Tampa Bay Demographic Characteristic Summary
County
Hillsborough
Manatee County
Pasco County
Pinellas County
Characteristic
Occupied site-built homes
Population in site-built homes
Occupied mobile homes
Population in mobile home
Hotel/motel units
Occupied site-built homes
Population in site-built homes
Occupied mobile homes
Population in mobile home
Hotel/motel units
Occupied site-built homes
Population in site-built homes
Occupied mobile homes
Population in mobile home
Hotel/motel units
Occupied site-built homes
Population in site-built homes
Occupied mobile homes
Population in mobile home
Hotel/motel units
2006
458,437
1,150,539
23,888
65,318
20,282
124,492
322,752
14,066
24,538
9,352
177,582
417,787
32,245
68,251
2,992
425,852
922,734
27,053
44,477
19,025
Year
2010
490,495
1,236,201
23,888
65,318
24,729
136,714
353,968
14,066
24,538
11,651
194,845
461,989
32,245
68,251
4,211
433,346
944,342
27,005
44,349
19,025
2015
530,827
1,343,269
23,888
65,318
30,290
124,391
402,831
14,066
24,538
14,545
218,489
517,249
32,245
68,251
5,736
443,296
971,631
27,005
44,349
19,025
Source: Tampa Bay Regional Planning Council
Evacuation Transportation Analysis
Page VI-13
Volume 1-8 Tampa Bay
•
Statewide Regional Evacuation Study Program
Planned Roadway Improvements - To correspond to the three different sets of
demographic data, three model networks were ultimately developed. The base 2006
network and two future year networks to correspond to the 2010 demographic data and
the 2015 demographic data. The 2006 base model network was updated to reflect
roadway capacity improvement projects completed between 2006 and 2010 to create
the 2010 network. The 2010 network was then updated to reflect planned roadway
capacity improvement projects expected to be implemented between 2011 and 2015 to
create the 2015 network.
The planned roadway improvements that were added to the network generally include
only capacity improvement projects such as additional through lanes. Table VI-2
identifies capacity improvement projects completed between 2006 and 2010 that were
included in the 2010 network. Likewise, Table VI-3 identifies capacity improvement
projects planned for implementation between 2011 and 2015. The tables identify each
roadway that will be improved as well as the extent of the improvement. For example,
by the end of 2015 in Hillsborough County, US 301 from Balm Road to SR 674 will be
widened to 8 lanes.
It is important to note that Tables IV-2 and IV-3 are not intended to be all inclusive of
every transportation improvement project completed within the region. The tables only
identify key capacity improvement projects that impact the evacuation model network
and are anticipated to have an impact on evacuation clearance times.
•
Behavioral Assumptions - For the Tampa Bay Region, all four counties within the
region have evacuation zones corresponding to five categories of storm surge.
Evacuation rates for site-built homes and mobile/manufactured homes are provided by
county and summarized in Figure VI-4 through Figure VI-11. Other rates, such as
out of county trip rates, vehicle use rates, public shelter use rates, friend/relative refuge
use rates, hotel/motel refuge use rates, and other refuge use rates, are detailed by
county, storm threat, and evacuation zone in Volume 5-8.
A review of the evacuation rates for the Tampa Bay region illustrates that evacuation
participation rates increase as the evacuation level increases, and participation rates for
persons living in mobile/manufactured homes are generally higher than for persons
living in site-built homes. It should be noted that a certain percentage of the population
evacuates, even when they are not living in an area that is ordered to evacuate. These
people are commonly referred to as shadow evacuees. Shadow evacuation rates are
also included in Figure VI-4 through Figure VI-11.
•
Shelters - In order for the transportation model to accurately assign public shelter trips
to the correct location, a complete list of available public shelters needs to be available.
The shelters were categorized as either primary or other, with primary indicating that
the shelter is compliant with American Red Cross standards for a shelter and other
indicating all other shelters. In the four county region there are a total of 144 shelters,
including 54 in Hillsborough County, 29 in Manatee County, 30 in Pasco County, and 31
in Pinellas County, all of which are classified as primary shelters. All together, the 144
shelters located within the four county region can host more than 170,000 persons
during an evacuation event.
Page VI-14
Evacuation Transportation Analysis
Statewide Regional Evacuation Study Program
Volume 1-8 Tampa Bay
Table VI-2 Tampa Bay Region Roadway Improvements, 2006-2010
County
Hillsborough
Manatee
Pasco
Pinellas
Roadway
From
To
SR 618
N 21st St/N 22nd St
SR 45/US 41
Manhattan Ave
CR 585A
Race Track Road
SR 676
Park Rd
I-4
Boyette Rd
US 301
SR 64
SR 64
SR 64
SR 70
Ridge Rd
SR 52
SR 54
SR 54
CR 581
C.R. 578 N County Line
US 41 (SR 45)
CR 1/ Little Rd
Bryan Dairy Rd
US 19 (SR 55)
SR 688 (Ulmerton Rd)
CR 1/Keene Rd
CR 880 (Klosterman Rd)
SR 45
SR 60
Maritime Blvd
Gandy Blvd
Hillsborough Ave
Hillsborough Ave
W of US 41
I-4 (SR 400)
I-275
US 301
Erie Rd/Old Tampa Rd
I-75
Heritage Green Way
Lakewood Ranch Blvd
I-75
Little Rd
Moon Lake Rd
Magnolia
CR 581
County Line
US 19
Tower Rd
SR 54/ Gunn Hwy
72nd St
N of 49th St N
Indian Rocks Rd
SR 60
Pinellas Ave
I-75
I-4
SR 60
Kensington Ave
SR 582
Douglas Rd
E of US 301
Sam Allen Rd
50th St
Allen Wood Dr
CR 675
Heritage Green Way
Lakewood Ranch Blvd
Lorraine Rd
Lorraine Rd
Moon Lake Rd
Suncoast Parkway
SR 581
E of CR 577
SR 54
East Rd
Ridge Rd/Connerton Bld
Old County Road 54
US 19
N of 126th Ave N
W of 113th St
CR 576 (Sunset Pt. Rd )
US 19
Number
of Lanes
8/10
6
6
4
4
6
4
4
8
6
4
6
6
4
6
4
4
4
6
6
4
4
6
6
10 *
6
4
4
Sources: FDOT SIS First Five Year Plan, FDOT SIS Second Five Year Plan, Tampa Bay Regional Planning Council
Note: Projects included in this table are roadway improvement projects completed between 2006 and 2010 on roadways that are
included in the regional transportation model network. Only projects which added roadway capacity, such as additional through
lanes, were included. The list is not intended to be all inclusive of every transportation improvement project completed within the
region. A list of historical projects completed during the last five years was included in this report because the base regional network
developed for the study, along with the base demographic data, is for the year 2006.
* 10 lanes includes 6 partially controlled lanes w/ 4-lane service roads
Evacuation Transportation Analysis
Page VI-15
Volume 1-8 Tampa Bay
Statewide Regional Evacuation Study Program
Table VI-3 Tampa Bay Planned Roadway Improvements, 2011-2015
County
Hillsborough
Manatee
Pasco
Pinellas
Roadway
From
To
Lutz Lake Fern Rd
US 301
Bruce B. Downs Blvd
SR 574
SR 589 (Veteran's Expy)
I-4/Selmon Expressway
I-4/Selmon Expressway
I-275 (SR 93)
I-275 (SR 93)
I-275 (SR 93)
I-75
None
Clinton Ave.
Keystone Rd
Bryan Dairy Rd
US 19 (SR 55)
US 19 (SR 55)
SR 688 (Ulmerton Rd)
SR 688 (Ulmerton Rd)
SR 688 (Ulmerton Rd)
SR 688 (Ulmerton Rd)
Starkey Rd
Gandy Blvd
Starkey Rd
Suncoast Parkway
Balm Rd
Pebble Creek Dr
W of Highview
Memorial Hwy
S of Selmon Expresswy
7th Ave
Himes Ave
SR 60 (Memorial Hwy)
Howard Frankland
S of Fowler Ave
N/A
Ft. King Hwy
US 19
Starkey Rd
N of Whitney Rd
S of Seville Blvd
W of 38th ST
E of 119th ST
E of Wild Acres Road
El Centro Ranchero
84th Lane
9th Street North
84th Lane
Dale Mabry Highway
SR 674
Pasco County
E of Parsons Ave
S of Gunn Hwy
7th Ave
I-4
Hillsborough River
Himes Ave
Himes Ave
N of CR-581
N/A
U.S.301
East Lake Rd
72nd St
S of Seville Rd
N of SR 60
W of I-275
W of Seminole Bypass
El Centro Ranchero
W of US 19
Tyrone Blvd
28th St (Ext)
Bryan Dairy Rd
Number
of Lanes
4
8
6
4
6
4
4
8
8
8
8
N/A
4
4
6
10 *
10 *
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
Sources: FDOT SIS First Five Year Plan, FDOT SIS Second Five Year Plan, Tampa Bay Regional Planning Council
Note: Projects included in this table are roadway improvement projects planned for completion between 2011 and 2015 on
roadways that are included in the regional transportation model network. Only projects which are planned to add roadway capacity,
such as additional through lanes, were included. The list is not intended to be all inclusive of every transportation improvement
project planned for completion within the region.
* 10 lanes includes 6 partially controlled lanes w/ 4-lane service roads
Page VI-16
Evacuation Transportation Analysis
Statewide Regional Evacuation Study Program
Volume 1-8 Tampa Bay
Figure VI-4 Evacuation Participation Rates: Hillsborough County - Site-Built
Homes
100
90
80
Percent Response
70
60
Zone A
Zone B
50
Zone C
Zone D
40
Zone E
30
20
10
0
Evacuation Level A
Evacuation Level B
Evacuation Level C
Evacuation Level D
Evacuation Level E
Figure VI-5 Evacuation Participation Rates: Hillsborough County - Mobile Homes
100
90
80
Percent Response
70
60
Zone A
Zone B
50
Zone C
Zone D
40
Zone E
30
20
10
0
Evacuation Level A
Evacuation Level B
Evacuation Transportation Analysis
Evacuation Level C
Evacuation Level D
Evacuation Level E
Page VI-17
Volume 1-8 Tampa Bay
Statewide Regional Evacuation Study Program
Figure VI-6 Evacuation Participation Rates: Manatee County - Site Built
Homes
100
90
80
Percent Response
70
60
Zone A
Zone B
50
Zone C
Zone D
40
Zone E
30
20
10
0
Evacuation Level A
Evacuation Level B
Evacuation Level C
Evacuation Level D
Evacuation Level E
Figure VI-7 Evacuation Participation Rates: Manatee County - Mobile Homes
100
90
80
Percent Response
70
60
Zone A
Zone B
50
Zone C
Zone D
40
Zone E
30
20
10
0
Evacuation Level A
Page VI-18
Evacuation Level B
Evacuation Level C
Evacuation Level D
Evacuation Level E
Evacuation Transportation Analysis
Statewide Regional Evacuation Study Program
Volume 1-8 Tampa Bay
Figure VI-8 Evacuation Participation Rates: Pasco County - Site Built Homes
100
90
80
Percent Response
70
60
Zone A
Zone B
50
Zone C
Zone D
40
Zone E
30
20
10
0
Evacuation Level A
Evacuation Level B
Evacuation Level C
Evacuation Level D
Evacuation Level E
Figure VI-9 Evacuation Participation Rates: Pasco County - Mobile Homes
100
90
80
Percent Response
70
60
Zone A
Zone B
50
Zone C
Zone D
40
Zone E
30
20
10
0
Evacuation Level A
Evacuation Level B
Evacuation Transportation Analysis
Evacuation Level C
Evacuation Level D
Evacuation Level E
Page VI-19
Volume 1-8 Tampa Bay
Figure VI-10
Statewide Regional Evacuation Study Program
Evacuation Participation Rates: Pinellas County - Site Built
Homes
100
90
80
Percent Response
70
60
Zone A
Zone B
50
Zone C
Zone D
40
Zone E
30
20
10
0
Evacuation Level A
Evacuation Level B
Evacuation Level C
Evacuation Level D
Evacuation Level E
Figure VI-11 Evacuation Participation Rates: Pinellas County - Mobile
Homes
100
90
80
Percent Response
70
60
Zone A
Zone B
50
Zone C
Zone D
40
Zone E
30
20
10
0
Evacuation Level A
Page VI-20
Evacuation Level B
Evacuation Level C
Evacuation Level D
Evacuation Level E
Evacuation Transportation Analysis
Statewide Regional Evacuation Study Program
•
Volume 1-8 Tampa Bay
Evacuation Zones - The final input variable that is needed to complete the
transportation evacuation model is the delineation of evacuation zones for all coastal
counties. Local county emergency managers have the responsibility of identifying and
defining evacuation zones for their county. All four counties within the Tampa Bay
region have updated and established their evacuation zones based on the results of the
new data and information collected as part of the SRESP. County level evacuation zones
are included in Volume 5-8.
F. TIME User Interface
Wilbur Smith Associates developed the Transportation Interface for Modeling Evacuations
(TIME) to make it easier for RPC staff and transportation planners to use the model and
implement the evacuation methodology. The TIME interface is based on an ArcGIS platform and
is essentially a condensed transportation model, which provides a user friendly means of
modifying input variables that would change the clearance
times for various evacuation scenarios.
The evacuation model variables include a set of distinguishing
characteristics that could apply to evacuation scenarios as
selection criteria. These following variables may be selected
using the TIME interface and allow the user to retrieve the
best results from various evacuation alternatives:
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
G.
Analysis time period;
Highway network;
Behavioral response;
One-way evacuation operations;
University population;
Tourist occupancy rates;
Shelters;
Counties evacuating;
Evacuation level;
Response curve hours; and,
Evacuation Phasing.
Vulnerable Population
Using a combination of the demographic data, behavioral assumptions, and evacuation zones,
the vulnerable population in each county could be determined by evacuation level. For the
purposes of the transportation analysis, the vulnerable population, or population-at-risk, is
defined as the total population living within the county designated evacuation zones for each
evacuation level. This population is living in an area that is at risk for severe flooding during a
storm event. The vulnerable population for the Tampa Bay Region for 2010 is identified in
Evacuation Transportation Analysis
Page VI-21
Volume 1-8 Tampa Bay
Statewide Regional Evacuation Study Program
Table VI-4, summarized by evacuation zone and split between site-built homes and
mobile/manufactured homes. Vulnerable population for 2015 is summarized in Table VI-5.
Table VI-4 Vulnerable Population in the Tampa Bay Region for 2010
Evacuation Evacuation Evacuation Evacuation Evacuation
Zone A
Zone B
Zone C
Zone D
Zone E
Hillsborough County
Site-built Homes
Mobile/Manuf. Homes
TOTAL
Manatee County
Site-built Homes
Mobile/Manuf. Homes
TOTAL
Pasco County
Site-built Homes
Mobile/Manuf. Homes
TOTAL
Pinellas County
Site-built Homes
Mobile/Manuf. Homes
TOTAL
81,698
3,677
85,375
106,164
2,599
108,763
59,233
1,883
61,116
65,805
3,065
68,870
66,996
3,989
70,985
39,227
3,270
42,497
23,434
2,668
26,102
28,902
2,043
30,945
60,097
4,577
64,674
85,350
4,735
90,085
40,286
4,636
44,922
47,938
4,462
52,400
62,409
5,301
67,710
29,734
3,737
33,471
21,788
2,452
24,240
153,436
2,789
156,225
130,087
6,407
136,494
124,181
8,335
132,516
94,025
8,814
102,839
51,953
1,561
53,514
Note: Vulnerable population determined using SRESP behavioral data and county provided evacuation zones.
Vulnerable population numbers are not inclusive, meaning population numbers listed for a higher zone are not
included in the lower zone. For example, vulnerable population listed for Evacuation Zone B does not include
vulnerable population listed for Evacuation Zone A.
Page VI-22
Evacuation Transportation Analysis
Statewide Regional Evacuation Study Program
Table VI-5
Volume 1-8 Tampa Bay
Vulnerable Population in the Tampa Bay Region for 2015
Evacuation Evacuation Evacuation Evacuation Evacuation
Zone A
Zone B
Zone C
Zone D
Zone E
Hillsborough County
Site-built Homes
Mobile/Manuf. Homes
TOTAL
Manatee County
Site-built Homes
Mobile/Manuf. Homes
TOTAL
Pasco County
Site-built Homes
Mobile/Manuf. Homes
TOTAL
Pinellas County
Site-built Homes
Mobile/Manuf. Homes
TOTAL
89,414
3,677
93,091
115,711
2,599
118,310
65,565
1,883
67,448
70,976
3,065
74,041
72,318
3,989
76,307
42,313
3,270
45,583
26,111
2,668
28,779
32,251
2,043
34,294
66,237
4,577
70,814
94,343
4,735
99,078
41,462
4,636
46,098
49,089
4,462
53,551
64,442
5,301
69,743
31,053
3,737
34,790
22,732
2,452
25,184
158,203
2,789
160,992
134,163
6,407
140,570
128,913
8,335
137,248
98,345
8,814
107,159
53,371
1,561
54,932
Note: Vulnerable population determined using SRESP behavioral data and county provided evacuation zones.
Vulnerable population numbers are not inclusive, meaning population numbers listed for a higher zone are not
included in the lower zone. For example, vulnerable population listed for Evacuation Zone B does not include
vulnerable population listed for Evacuation Zone A.
Evacuation Transportation Analysis
Page VI-23
Volume 1-8 Tampa Bay
Statewide Regional Evacuation Study Program
In addition, based again on the demographic data, behavioral assumptions, and evacuation
zones, the planned destinations of vulnerable population in each county could be determined by
evacuation level. Destinations include friends and family, hotel/motel, public shelter, and other
locations. Vulnerable population destinations for the Tampa Bay Region are identified in Table
VI-6 for 2010 and in Table VI-7 for 2015.
The vulnerable shadow population is provided in Table VI-8 for both 2010 and 2015. The
vulnerable shadow population was determined using the behavioral assumptions for evacuating
shadow population and is based on evacuation level (storm category), not evacuation zone.
Table VI-6 Vulnerable Population by Destination for 2010
Evacuation Evacuation Evacuation Evacuation Evacuation
Zone A
Zone B
Zone C
Zone D
Zone E
Hillsborough County
To Friends and Family
To Hotel/ Motel
To Public Shelter
To Other Destination
Manatee County
To Friends and Family
To Hotel/ Motel
To Public Shelter
To Other Destination
Pasco County
To Friends and Family
To Hotel/ Motel
To Public Shelter
To Other Destination
Pinellas County
To Friends and Family
To Hotel/ Motel
To Public Shelter
To Other Destination
55,494
16,891
4,453
8,538
70,696
21,623
5,568
10,876
39,725
12,129
3,150
6,112
44,765
10,177
7,040
6,887
46,140
10,448
7,298
7,098
25,662
8,336
2,288
6,211
15,795
3,915
2,195
4,197
18,670
4,642
2,557
5,077
39,033
9,701
6,467
9,472
54,288
13,513
9,008
13,276
28,504
10,767
2,710
2,941
31,217
10,257
2,843
8,083
40,361
13,277
6,771
7,301
18,222
6,507
3,534
5,207
13,209
4,725
2,547
3,759
109,079
23,573
7,951
15,623
88,401
27,299
7,145
13,649
85,719
26,503
7,043
13,252
66,405
15,867
8,403
12,164
34,706
8,105
4,312
6,390
Note: Vulnerable population destinations determined using SRESP behavioral data and county provided evacuation
zones. Vulnerable population numbers are not inclusive, meaning population numbers listed for a higher zone are not
included in the lower zone. For example, vulnerable population listed for Evacuation Zone B does not include
vulnerable population listed for Evacuation Zone A.
Page VI-24
Evacuation Transportation Analysis
Statewide Regional Evacuation Study Program
Volume 1-8 Tampa Bay
Table VI-7 Vulnerable Population by Destination for 2015
Evacuation Evacuation Evacuation Evacuation Evacuation
Zone A
Zone B
Zone C
Zone D
Zone E
Hillsborough County
To Friends and Family
To Hotel/ Motel
To Public Shelter
To Other Destination
Manatee County
To Friends and Family
To Hotel/ Motel
To Public Shelter
To Other Destination
Pasco County
To Friends and Family
To Hotel/ Motel
To Public Shelter
To Other Destination
Pinellas County
To Friends and Family
To Hotel/ Motel
To Public Shelter
To Other Destination
60,509
18,434
4,838
9,309
76,901
23,532
6,045
11,831
43,841
13,396
3,467
6,745
48,127
10,953
7,557
7,404
49,600
11,247
7,830
7,631
27,513
8,953
2,443
6,674
17,401
4,317
2,409
4,652
20,679
5,144
2,825
5,646
42,718
10,622
7,081
10,393
59,683
14,862
9,908
14,625
29,268
11,061
2,768
3,000
31,908
10,487
2,901
8,256
41,581
13,684
6,974
7,504
18,947
6,771
3,666
5,405
13,729
4,914
2,641
3,900
112,416
24,288
8,189
16,099
91,050
28,114
7,349
14,057
88,795
27,450
7,279
13,725
69,212
16,514
8,749
12,683
35,628
8,318
4,426
6,561
Note: Vulnerable population destinations determined using SRESP behavioral data and county provided evacuation
zones. Vulnerable population numbers are not inclusive, meaning population numbers listed for a higher zone are not
included in the lower zone. For example, vulnerable population listed for Evacuation Zone B does not include
vulnerable population listed for Evacuation Zone A.
Table VI-8 Vulnerable Shadow Evacuation Population
Evacuation Evacuation Evacuation Evacuation Evacuation
Level A
Level B
Level C
Level D
Level E
2010
Hillsborough County
Manatee County
Pasco County
Pinellas County
2015
Hillsborough County
Manatee County
Pasco County
Pinellas County
181,791
62,512
108,755
156,002
155,023
66,950
90,645
129,276
194,153
81,530
94,893
130,801
201,338
92,286
89,870
113,936
248,834
58,982
89,530
126,882
193,691
68,344
112,233
159,116
164,826
74,513
93,794
131,700
207,741
92,216
100,439
133,169
215,901
105,217
95,365
115,486
268,265
70,989
96,988
128,512
Note: Vulnerable shadow population determined using SRESP behavioral data and county provided evacuation zones.
Evacuation Transportation Analysis
Page VI-25
Volume 1-8 Tampa Bay
Statewide Regional Evacuation Study Program
H. Evacuation Model Scenarios
There are literally thousands of possible combinations of variables that can be applied using the
evacuation transportation model, which will result in thousands of possible outcomes. For the
purposes of this analysis, two distinct sets of analyses were conducted using the SRESP
evacuation transportation model, including one set of analysis for growth management
purposes and one set of analysis for emergency management purposes. The two sets of
analysis include the following:
•
Base Scenarios – The base scenarios were developed to estimate a series of worst
case scenarios and are identical for all eleven RPCs across the State. These scenarios
assume 100 percent of the vulnerable population evacuates and includes impacts from
counties outside of the RPC area. These scenarios are generally designed for growth
management purposes, in order to ensure that all residents that choose to evacuate
during an event are able to do so. The base scenarios for the Tampa Bay region are
identified in Table VI-9; and,
•
Operational Scenarios – The operational scenarios were developed by the RPCs in
coordination with local county emergency managers and are designed to provide
important information to emergency management personnel to plan for different storm
events. These scenarios are different from region to region and vary for each evacuation
level. The operational scenarios for the Tampa Bay region are identified in Table VI-10.
Because of the numerous possible combinations of variables that can be applied in the model,
the evacuation transportation model is available for use through the Tampa Bay RPC to
continue testing combinations of options and provide additional information to emergency
managers.
I.
Clearance Time Results
Each of the ten base scenarios and ten operational scenarios were modeled for the Tampa Bay
Region using the regional evacuation model. Results were derived from the model to summarize
the evacuating population, evacuating vehicles, clearance times, and critical congested
roadways. Detailed results are discussed in Chapter IV. Clearance times are presented in this
executive summary, since the determination of clearance time is one of the most important
outcomes from the evacuation transportation analysis.
Calculated clearance times are used by county emergency managers as one input to determine
when to recommend an evacuation order. This calculation can include the population-at-risk,
shadow evacuees, as well as evacuees from other counties anticipated to pass through the
county. Clearance time is developed to include the time required for evacuees to secure their
homes and prepare to leave, the time spent by all vehicles traveling along the evacuation route
network, and the additional time spent on the road caused by traffic and road congestion.
Clearance time does not relate to the time any one vehicle spends traveling along the
evacuation route network, nor does it guarantee vehicles will safely reach their destination once
outside the County. The four clearance times that are calculated as part of the evacuation
transportation analysis include the following:
Page VI-26
Evacuation Transportation Analysis
Statewide Regional Evacuation Study Program
Volume 1-8 Tampa Bay
Table VI-9 Base Scenarios
Demographic Data
Highway Network
One-Way Operations
University Population
Tourist Rate
Shelters Open
Response Curve
Evacuation Phasing
Behavioral Response
Evacuation Zone
Counties Evacuating
Demographic Data
Highway Network
One-Way Operations
University Population
Tourist Rate
Shelters Open
Response Curve
Evacuation Phasing
Behavioral Response
Evacuation Zone
Counties Evacuating
Scenario 1
Level A
2010
2010
2010
None
Fall/Spring
Default
Primary
12-hour
None
100%
A
Hillsborough
Manatee
Pasco
Pinellas
Sarasota
Hernando
Scenario 6
Level A
2015
2015
2015
None
Fall/Spring
Default
Primary
12-hour
None
100%
A
Hillsborough
Manatee
Pasco
Pinellas
Sarasota
Hernando
Evacuation Transportation Analysis
Scenario 2
Level B
2010
2010
2010
None
Fall/Spring
Default
Primary
12-hour
None
100%
B
Hillsborough
Manatee
Pasco
Pinellas
Sarasota
Hernando
Scenario 7
Level B
2015
2015
2015
None
Fall/Spring
Default
Primary
12-hour
None
100%
B
Hillsborough
Manatee
Pasco
Pinellas
Sarasota
Hernando
Scenario 3
Level C
2010
2010
2010
None
Fall/Spring
Default
Primary
12-hour
None
100%
C
Hillsborough
Manatee
Pasco
Pinellas
Sarasota
Hernando
Scenario 8
Level C
2015
2015
2015
None
Fall/Spring
Default
Primary
12-hour
None
100%
C
Hillsborough
Manatee
Pasco
Pinellas
Sarasota
Hernando
Scenario 4
Level D
2010
2010
2010
None
Fall/Spring
Default
Primary
12-hour
None
100%
D
Hillsborough
Manatee
Pasco
Pinellas
Sarasota
Hernando
Scenario 9
Level D
2015
2015
2015
None
Fall/Spring
Default
Primary
12-hour
None
100%
D
Hillsborough
Manatee
Pasco
Pinellas
Sarasota
Hernando
Scenario 5
Level E
2010
2010
2010
None
Fall/Spring
Default
Primary
12-hour
None
100%
E
Hillsborough
Manatee
Pasco
Pinellas
Sarasota
Hernando
Scenario 10
Level E
2015
2015
2015
None
Fall/Spring
Default
Primary
12-hour
None
100%
E
Hillsborough
Manatee
Pasco
Pinellas
Sarasota
Hernando
Page VI-27
Volume 1-8 Tampa Bay
Statewide Regional Evacuation Study Program
Table VI-10 Operational Scenarios
Demographic Data
Highway Network
One-Way Operations
University Population
Tourist Rate
Shelters Open
Response Curve
Evacuation Phasing
Behavioral Response
Evacuation Zone
Counties Evacuating
Demographic Data
Highway Network
One-Way Operations
University Population
Tourist Rate
Shelters Open
Response Curve
Evacuation Phasing
Behavioral Response
Evacuation Zone
Counties Evacuating
Page VI-28
Scenario 1
Level A 2010
2010
2010
Scenario 2
Level B 2010
2010
2010
Scenario 3
Level C 2010
2010
2010
None
Summer
Default
Primary
9-hour
None
Summer
Default
Primary
12-hour
None
Summer
Default
Primary
18-hour
None
None
None
Planning
A
Hillsborough
Manatee
Pasco
Pinellas
Sarasota
Hernando
Charlotte
Planning
B
Hillsborough
Manatee
Pasco
Pinellas
Sarasota
Hernando
Charlotte
Planning
C
Hillsborough
Manatee
Pasco
Pinellas
Sarasota
Hernando
Charlotte
Scenario 6
Level A 2015
2015
2015
Scenario 7
Level B 2015
2015
2015
Scenario 8
Level C 2015
2015
2015
None
Summer
Default
Primary
9-hour
None
Summer
Default
Primary
12-hour
None
Summer
Default
Primary
18-hour
None
None
None
Planning
A
Hillsborough
Manatee
Pasco
Pinellas
Sarasota
Hernando
Charlotte
Planning
B
Hillsborough
Manatee
Pasco
Pinellas
Sarasota
Hernando
Charlotte
Planning
C
Hillsborough
Manatee
Pasco
Pinellas
Sarasota
Hernando
Charlotte
Polk
Scenario 4
Level D 2010
2010
2010 and
Skyway Bridge
closes at hour
18
None
Summer
Default
Primary
24-hour except
Citrus &
Hernando
18-hour
Yes – Citrus &
Hernando start
in hour 6
Planning
D
Hillsborough
Manatee
Pasco
Pinellas
Sarasota
Hernando
Charlotte
Citrus
Scenario 9
Level D 2015
2015
2015 and
Skyway Bridge
closes at hour
18
Yes, I-4 & I-75
Summer
Default
Primary
24-hour except
Citrus &
Hernando
18-hour
Yes – Citrus &
Hernando start
in hour 6
Planning
D
Hillsborough
Manatee
Pasco
Pinellas
Sarasota
Hernando
Charlotte
Citrus
Scenario 5
Level E 2010
2010
2010 and
Skyway Bridge
closes at hour
18
None
Summer
Default
Primary
24-hour except
Citrus &
Hernando
18-hour
Yes – Citrus &
Hernando start
in hour 6
Planning
E
Hillsborough
Manatee
Pasco
Pinellas
Sarasota
Hernando
Charlotte
Citrus
Scenario 10
Level E 2015
2015
2015 and
Skyway Bridge
closes at hour
18
Yes, I-4 & I-75
Summer
Default
Primary
24-hour except
Citrus &
Hernando
18-hour
Yes – Citrus &
Hernando start
in hour 6
Planning
E
Hillsborough
Manatee
Pasco
Pinellas
Sarasota
Hernando
Charlotte
Citrus
Evacuation Transportation Analysis
Statewide Regional Evacuation Study Program
Volume 1-8 Tampa Bay
•
Clearance Time to Shelter - The time necessary to safely evacuate vulnerable
residents and visitors to a “point of safety” within the county based on a specific hazard,
behavioral assumptions and evacuation scenario. Calculated from the point in time when
the evacuation order is given to the point in time when the last vehicle reaches a point
of safety within the county. Key points to remember for clearance time to shelter
include:
o All in-county trips reach their destination within the county; and,
o This definition does not include any out of county trips.
•
In-County Clearance Time - The time required from the point an evacuation order is
given until the last evacuee can either leave the evacuation zone or arrive at safe shelter
within the county. This does not include those evacuees leaving the county on their
own. Key points to remember for in-county clearance time include:
o All in-county trips reach their destination within the county;
o All out of county trips exit the evacuation zone, but may still be located in the
county; and,
o This definition does not include out-of-county pass-through trips from adjacent
counties, unless they evacuate through an evacuation zone.
•
Out of County Clearance Time - The time necessary to safely evacuate vulnerable
residents and visitors to a “point of safety” within the county based on a specific hazard,
behavioral assumptions and evacuation scenario. Calculated from the point an
evacuation order is given to the point in time when the last vehicle assigned an external
destination exits the county. Key points to remember for out of county clearance time
include:
o The roadway network within the county is clear;
o All out of county trips exit the county, including out of county pass-through trips
from adjacent counties; and,
o All in-county trips reach their destination.
•
Regional Clearance Time - The time necessary to safely evacuate vulnerable
residents and visitors to a “point of safety” within the (RPC) region based on a specific
hazard, behavioral assumptions and evacuation scenario. Calculated from last vehicle
assigned an external destination exits the region. Key points to remember for regional
clearance time include:
o The roadway network within the RPC is clear;
o All out of county trips exit the RPC, including out of county pass-through trips from
adjacent counties;
o All in-county trips reach their destination; and,
o Regional clearance time is equal to the largest out of county clearance time for a
given scenario for any of the counties within the RPC, since the out of county
clearance time includes out of county pass through trips from adjacent counties.
Evacuation Transportation Analysis
Page VI-29
Volume 1-8 Tampa Bay
Statewide Regional Evacuation Study Program
Calculated clearance times are used by county emergency managers as one input to determine
when to recommend an evacuation order. Clearance times for each of the base scenarios are
summarized in Table VI-11 and VI-12, while clearance times for each of the operational
scenarios are summarized in Table VI-13 and Table VI-14. Clearance time includes several
components, including the mobilization time for the evacuating population to prepare for an
evacuation (pack supplies and personal belongs, load their vehicle, etc.), the actual time spent
traveling on the roadway network, and the delay time caused by traffic congestion.
Base Scenarios
In-county clearance times for the 2010 base scenarios range from 13 hours to 60 hours,
depending upon the evacuation level. Pasco County has the highest in-county clearance time of
60 hours for the level E scenario due to the influence of trips evacuating from other counties
within the region. Clearance time to shelter shows a similar pattern, with clearance times
ranging from 13 to 60 hours.
In 2015, in-county clearance times for the base scenarios vary between 13 hours for the
evacuation level A scenarios and 58.5 hours for Pasco County for the evacuation level D
scenario. This shows a slight reduction in clearance time from 2010 due to the completion of
several roadway improvement projects throughout the region. Clearance Time to Shelter shows
a similar pattern, with clearance times for the base scenarios ranging from 13 hours for the
evacuation level A scenarios to 58.5 hours for Pasco County for evacuation level D scenario in
2015.
Out of county clearance times for the 2010 base scenarios range from 14 to 60.5 hours, while
in 2015 they range from 14 hours for the base evacuation level A scenario to 57.5 hours in
Pasco County for the evacuation level E scenario in 2015. Again, the slight drop in clearance
time in 2015 is due to the completion of roadway improvement projects. Regional clearance
time for the four county TBRPC region ranges from 16.5 hours to 60.5 hours.
Operational Scenarios
In-county clearance times for the 2010 operational scenarios range from 11 hours to 59.5 hours
depending upon the scenario. Clearance Time to Shelter shows a similar pattern, with clearance
times for the operational scenarios ranging from 10 hours to 59 hours depending upon the
county and the scenario.
In 2015, in-county clearance times for the operational scenarios vary from 11 hours to 78.5
hours for the level E evacuation in Pasco County. The 2015 level E evacuation includes vehicle
trips evacuating from as far south as Charlotte County, which causes a large northbound
evacuation through Pasco County. Clearance Time to Shelter shows a similar pattern, with
clearance times for the base scenarios ranging from 10 hours to 78.5 hours depending upon the
scenario.
Out of county clearance times for the 2010 operational scenarios range from 11 hours to 60
hours for the evacuation level E scenario. The 9-hour response curve for the level A evacuation
helps in reducing the clearance time from the base scenario. Out of county clearance times
increase for all counties in 2015 to between 11 and 78 hours depending upon the scenario.
Regional clearance time for the four county TBRPC region ranges from 13 hours to 60 hours in
2010. This time increases to between 12 and 78 hours in 2015.
Page VI-30
Evacuation Transportation Analysis
Statewide Regional Evacuation Study Program
Volume 1-8 Tampa Bay
Table VI-11 2010 Clearance Times for Base Scenario
Evacuation
Level A
Base
Scenario
Clearance Time to Shelter
Hillsborough
15.5
Manatee
12.5
Pasco
14.0
Pinellas
13.0
In-County Clearance Time
Hillsborough
15.5
Manatee
13.5
Pasco
14.0
Pinellas
13.0
Out of County Clearance Time
Hillsborough
16.5
Manatee
14.5
Pasco
17.0
Pinellas
14.0
Regional Clearance Time
Tampa Bay Region
16.5
Evacuation
Level B
Base
Scenario
Evacuation
Level C
Base
Scenario
Evacuation
Level D
Base
Scenario
Evacuation
Level E
Base
Scenario
22.0
12.5
18.0
13.0
29.5
17.0
33.5
18.5
39.0
20.5
49.5
22.5
59.5
34.0
60.0
41.0
22.0
14.0
18.0
13.5
29.5
19.0
33.5
18.5
39.0
33.0
49.5
24.0
59.5
40.0
60.0
43.0
23.0
14.5
22.0
13.5
29.5
19.5
36.0
18.5
47.0
33.0
54.5
24.0
59.5
45.5
60.5
43.0
23.0
36.0
54.5
60.5
Table VI-12 2015 Clearance Times for Base Scenario
Evacuation
Level A
Base
Scenario
Clearance Time to Shelter
Hillsborough
14.5
Manatee
13.0
Pasco
13.5
Pinellas
13.0
In-County Clearance Time
Hillsborough
14.5
Manatee
14.0
Pasco
13.5
Pinellas
13.5
Out of County Clearance Time
Hillsborough
15.5
Manatee
14.5
Pasco
16.5
Pinellas
14.0
Regional Clearance Time
Tampa Bay Region
16.5
Evacuation Transportation Analysis
Evacuation
Level B
Base
Scenario
Evacuation
Level C
Base
Scenario
Evacuation
Level D
Base
Scenario
Evacuation
Level E
Base
Scenario
22.0
13.0
20.5
13.0
29.5
19.5
40.5
20.0
41.0
22.5
58.5
29.0
54.5
44.5
54.0
50.5
22.0
15.0
20.5
14.0
29.5
24.0
40.5
20.0
41.0
36.5
58.5
29.0
54.5
51.5
54.0
50.5
22.5
15.0
22.5
14.0
29.0
24.0
40.5
19.5
40.5
36.0
58.5
28.0
55.0
51.5
57.5
50.5
22.5
40.5
58.5
57.5
Page VI-31
Volume 1-8 Tampa Bay
Statewide Regional Evacuation Study Program
Table VI-13 2010 Clearance Times for Operational Scenarios
Evacuation Evacuation Evacuation Evacuation Evacuation
Level A
Level B
Level C
Level D
Level E
Operational Operational Operational Operational Operational
Scenario
Scenario
Scenario
Scenario
Scenario
Clearance Time to Shelter
Hillsborough
13.0
15.0
22.0
29.5
59.0
Manatee
10.0
13.0
19.0
28.0
53.0
Pasco
11.0
13.5
21.0
33.5
58.0
Pinellas
10.0
13.0
19.0
25.0
33.5
In-County Clearance Time
Hillsborough
13.0
15.0
22.0
29.5
59.0
Manatee
11.0
14.0
20.0
29.5
53.0
Pasco
11.0
13.5
21.0
33.5
58.0
Pinellas
11.5
14.0
20.5
29.0
58.5
Out of County Clearance Time
Hillsborough
13.0
15.5
22.0
29.0
59.0
Manatee
11.0
14.0
20.0
27.5
52.5
Pasco
11.5
14.5
21.0
34.0
60.0
Pinellas
11.5
13.5
20.0
28.5
58.0
Regional Clearance Time
Tampa Bay Region
13.0
15.5
22.0
34.0
60.0
Table VI-14 2015 Clearance Times for Operational Scenarios
Evacuation Evacuation Evacuation Evacuation Evacuation
Level A
Level B
Level C
Level D
Level E
Operational Operational Operational Operational Operational
Scenario
Scenario
Scenario
Scenario
Scenario
Clearance Time to Shelter
Hillsborough
12.0
15.5
26.0
38.0
78.0
Manatee
10.0
13.0
19.0
27.0
69.5
Pasco
12.0
13.5
23.5
40.5
78.5
Pinellas
10.0
13.0
19.5
25.5
71.0
In-County Clearance Time
Hillsborough
12.0
15.5
26.0
38.0
78.0
Manatee
11.0
14.0
20.0
33.5
73.5
Pasco
12.0
14.5
23.5
40.5
78.5
Pinellas
11.0
14.0
20.0
31.0
72.0
Out of County Clearance Time
Hillsborough
12.0
15.5
25.5
38.0
78.0
Manatee
11.0
14.0
20.0
33.0
75.0
Pasco
11.5
14.5
26.0
37.0
78.0
Pinellas
10.5
14.0
20.0
31.0
72.0
Regional Clearance Time
Tampa Bay Region
12.0
15.5
26.0
38.0
78.0
Page VI-32
Evacuation Transportation Analysis
Statewide Regional Evacuation Study Program
Volume 1-8 Tampa Bay
J. Maximum Evacuating Population Clearances
From an emergency management standpoint, it is important to get an understanding of the
maximum proportion of the evacuating population that can be expected to evacuate at various
time intervals during an evacuation. Should storm conditions change during an evacuation,
emergency managers will need to be able to estimate what portion of the evacuating population
is estimated to still remain within the county trying to evacuate.
Using the base scenarios, which assume 100% of the vulnerable population is evacuating, along
with shadow evacuations and evacuations from adjacent counties, an estimate was made of the
evacuating population actually able to evacuate out of each county by the time intervals of 12,
18, 24, and 36 hours. The estimated maximum evacuating population by time interval for 2010
is identified in Table VI-15 and for 2015 in Table VI-16.
It is important to note that these estimates take into account many variables, including roadway
capacity, in-county evacuating trips, out of county evacuating trips, evacuating trips from other
counties, and background traffic that is impeding the evacuation trips. For this reason, the
maximum evacuation population by time interval will vary slightly between evacuation level and
either increase or decrease from one evacuation level to the next.
K. Sensitivity Analysis
As discussed previously, there are literally thousands of possible combinations of variables that
can be applied using the evacuation transportation model, which will result in thousands of
possible outcomes. As part of the analysis process, a sensitivity analysis was conducted using
the prototype model to evaluate the effect of different response curves on the calculated
evacuation clearance times. Calculated clearance times will never be lower than the designated
response time, since some evacuating residents will wait to evacuate until near the end of the
response time window. For example, using a 12-hour response curve in the analysis means that
all residents will begin their evacuation process within 12-hours, and some residents will choose
to wait and begin evacuating more than 11.5 hours from when the evacuation was ordered.
This will generate a clearance time of more than 12 hours.
The sensitivity analysis identified that clearance times will vary by scenario and by any of the
numerous parameters that can be chosen in a particular scenario model run (demographics,
student population, tourist population, different counties that are evacuating, response curve,
phasing, shadow evacuations, etc.). A few general rules of thumb did emerge from the
sensitivity analysis that can provide some guidance to the region regarding the sensitivity of the
response curve to the calculated clearance times:
•
For low evacuation levels A and B, clearance time will vary by as much as 40 percent
depending on the response curve. Low evacuation levels A and B have fewer evacuating
vehicles that can be accommodated more easily on the transportation network. In most
cases, clearance times typically exceed the response curve by one to two hours. Thus, a
12 hour response curve may yield a clearance time of 13 or 14 hours while an 18 hour
response curve may yield a clearance time of 19 or 20 hours. This leads to a higher level
of variability than larger evacuations;
Evacuation Transportation Analysis
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Volume 1-8 Tampa Bay
Statewide Regional Evacuation Study Program
Table VI-15 Maximum Evacuating Population by Time Interval for 2010
Evacuation Evacuation Evacuation Evacuation
Level A
Level B
Level C
Level D
Estimated Evacuating Population Clearing Hillsborough County
12-Hour
194,303
182,151
182,810
134,161
18-Hour
267,166
273,227
365,619
201,241
24-Hour
349,123
274,214
268,321
36-Hour
449,407
402,482
Estimated Evacuating Population Clearing Manatee County
12-Hour
86,904
112,178
111,430
93,274
18-Hour
105,009
135,549
167,145
84,717
24-Hour
181,074
112,956
36-Hour
256,504
Estimated Evacuating Population Clearing Pasco County
12-Hour
108,478
102,527
86,642
63,495
18-Hour
153,677
153,791
129,963
95,242
24-Hour
187,967
173,283
126,990
36-Hour
259,925
190,485
Estimated Evacuating Population Clearing Pinellas County
12-Hour
267,623
374,828
360,672
321,005
18-Hour
312,227
421,681
541,008
481,508
24-Hour
556,036
642,010
36-Hour
Evacuation
Level E
129,871
194,806
259,742
389,613
82,625
93,209
124,278
186,418
61,938
92,908
123,877
185,815
197,713
296,569
395,425
593,138
Note: These estimates take into account many variables, including roadway capacity, in-county
evacuating trips, out of county evacuating trips, evacuating trips from other counties, and background
traffic that is impeding the evacuation trips. For this reason, the maximum evacuation population by time
interval will vary between evacuation level and either increase or decrease from one evacuation level to
the next.
Page VI-34
Evacuation Transportation Analysis
Statewide Regional Evacuation Study Program
Volume 1-8 Tampa Bay
Table VI-16 Maximum Evacuating Population by Time Interval for 2015
Evacuation Evacuation Evacuation Evacuation
Level A
Level B
Level C
Level D
Estimated Evacuating Population Clearing Hillsborough County
12-Hour
222,025
200,654
201,348
168,531
18-Hour
286,782
300,982
302,021
252,796
24-Hour
376,227
486,590
337,061
36-Hour
505,592
Estimated Evacuating Population Clearing Manatee County
12-Hour
94,284
119,100
100,436
94,896
18-Hour
113,927
148,875
150,654
142,344
24-Hour
200,872
189,791
36-Hour
284,687
Estimated Evacuating Population Clearing Pasco County
12-Hour
115,150
103,170
79,950
61,446
18-Hour
158,331
154,754
119,925
92,168
24-Hour
193,443
159,900
122,891
36-Hour
239,850
184,337
Estimated Evacuating Population Clearing Pinellas County
12-Hour
274,378
371,367
351,987
283,481
18-Hour
320,108
433,262
527,981
425,221
24-Hour
571,979
566,961
36-Hour
661,455
Evacuation
Level E
152,174
228,260
304,347
456,521
81,446
122,168
162,891
244,337
68,109
102,163
136,217
204,326
173,326
259,989
346,652
519,978
Note: These estimates take into account many variables, including roadway capacity, in-county
evacuating trips, out of county evacuating trips, evacuating trips from other counties, and background
traffic that is impeding the evacuation trips. For this reason, the maximum evacuation population by time
interval will vary between evacuation level and either increase or decrease from one evacuation level to
the next.
•
For mid-level evacuations such as C and sometimes D, clearance time varied by as much
as 25 percent during the sensitivity analysis. The number of evacuating vehicles is
considerably higher than for levels A and B, and lower response curves tend to load the
transportation network faster than longer response curves. The variability in clearance
times is less in these cases than for low evacuation levels; and,
•
For high-level evacuations such as some level D evacuations and all E evacuations,
clearance time variability is reduced to about 10 to 15 percent. Large evacuations
involve large numbers of evacuating vehicles, and the sensitivity test identified that
clearance times are not as dependent on the response curve as lower level evacuations
since it takes a significant amount of time to evacuate a large number of vehicles.
The counties within the Tampa Bay Region are encouraged to test additional scenarios beyond
what has been provided in this study. Each model run will provide additional information for the
region to use in determining when to order an evacuation. Due to advancements in computer
technology and the nature of the developed transportation evacuation methodology, this study
Evacuation Transportation Analysis
Page VI-35
Volume 1-8 Tampa Bay
Statewide Regional Evacuation Study Program
includes a more detailed and time consuming analysis process than used in previous years
studies. Counties interested in testing various response curves for each scenario can easily do
so using the TIME interface to calculate clearance times for different response curves.
L. Summary and Conclusions
Through a review of the results of the 20 different scenarios (10 base and 10 operational),
several conclusions could be reached regarding the transportation analysis, including the
following:
•
Critical transportation facilities within the TBRPC region include I-75, I-275, and I-4. For
large storm events, such as level D and E evacuations, other State facilities also play an
important role in evacuations, such as SR 52 and 54 in Pasco County, SR 60 in Pinellas
County, and SR 64 in Manatee County. Outside the region, the Turnpike/I-75
interchange in Sumter County is clearly an issue in all evacuation scenarios;
•
During the level A and B evacuation scenarios, the roadway segments with the highest
vehicle queues are primarily concentrated along the major Interstate and State Highway
system. During these levels of evacuation, State and County officials should coordinate
personnel resources to provide sufficient traffic control at interchanges and major
intersections along these routes;
•
In contrast, for the higher level C, D, and E evacuation scenarios, many other roadway
facilities, both within and outside of the region, will require personnel resources for
sufficient traffic control at interchanges and major intersections;
•
The TBRPC counties, in coordination with the State, should continue public information
campaigns to clearly define those that are vulnerable and should evacuate verses those
who choose to evacuate on their own. During large storm events in the operational
scenarios, evacuations by the vulnerable population in the four TBRPC Counties are
impacted by shadow evacuations occurring in other parts of the counties and in areas
outside the TBPRC region;
•
The Florida Department of Transportation should continue to work with local counties on
implementing intelligent transportation system (ITS) technology, which will provide
enhanced monitoring and notification systems to provide evacuating traffic with up to
date information regarding expected travel times and alternate routes;
•
A comparison of the 2010 and 2015 base scenarios clearly indicate that the roadway
improvement projects planned for implementation between 2011 and 2015 have an
impact in reducing evacuation clearance times. Despite the increased population levels
in 2015 within the TBRPC region, clearance times were generally stable between the
2010 and 2015 time periods. The roadway improvement projects were effective in
keeping clearance times constant. FDOT, MPOs within the region, and county
governments should continue funding roadway improvement projects within the region;
Page VI-36
Evacuation Transportation Analysis
Statewide Regional Evacuation Study Program
Volume 1-8 Tampa Bay
•
The State can use the data and information provided in this report (specifically the
evacuating vehicle maps in Volume 5-8) to estimate fuel and supply requirements along
major evacuation routes to aid motorists during the evacuation process;
•
For major evacuation routes that have signalized traffic control at major intersections,
traffic signal timing patterns should be adjusted during the evacuation process to
provide maximum green time for evacuating vehicles in the predominate north and west
directions; and,
•
The counties within the Tampa Bay Region are encouraged to test additional
transportation scenarios beyond what has been provided in this study. Each model run
will provide additional information for the region to use in planning for an evacuation.
Counties interested in testing various response curves for each scenario can easily do so
using the TIME interface to calculate clearance times for different evacuation conditions,
such as different evacuation levels, different behavioral response assumptions, and
different response curves.
Evacuation Transportation Analysis
Page VI-37
Funding was provided by the Florida Legislature with funding from the
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) through the Florida
Division of Emergency Management. Local match was provided by the
Tampa Bay Regional Planning Council and Hillsborough, Manatee, Pasco
and Pinellas Counties.
Florida Division of Emergency Management
David Halstead, Director
2555 Shumard Oak Boulevard, Tallahassee, Florida 32399
Web site: www.floridadisaster.org
Prepared and published by
Tampa Bay Regional Council, 4000 Gateway Centre Blvd., Pinellas Park, Florida 33782.
Tel: (727) 570-5151, Fax: (727) 570-5118, E-mail: betti@tbrpc.org or marsh@tbrpc.org Web site:
www.tbrpc.org
Study Managers: Betti C. Johnson, AICP, Principal Planner and Marshall Flynn, IT Manager
Statewide Program Manager: Jeffrey Alexander, Northeast Florida Regional Council