INFOS
Département de l‘économie,
de l‘énergie et du territoire
Département de l‘économie,
de l‘énergie et du territoire
Departement für Volkswirtschaft,
Energie und Raumentwicklung
Departement für Volkswirtschaft,
Energie und Raumentwicklung
Registration
Seminar
Participation is free of charge. However,
CHALLENGES IN
FORECASTING
PEAK ELECTRICITY
DEMAND
as the number of places is limited we
kindly ask you to register online at
www.energyforum-vs.ch,
by email info.energyforum@hevs.ch
www.energyforum-vs.ch
or by phone +41 27 606 90 01.
As part of the EnergyForum Valais/
Date
Wallis a seminar will be held in the after-
17 June 2014, 2:00 – 4:30 p.m.
noon on «Challenges in Forecasting Peak
Electricity Demand». This seminar is gea-
Location
red towards researchers and statisticians,
HES-SO Valais-Wallis
professionals in the field of energy as well
Rte de la Plaine 2
as other interested parties from the field of
3960 Sierre
energy forecasting.
Keynote speaker is Australian Prof. Dr.
Rob J. Hyndman, internationally renowned expert in the field of statistical energy
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forecasting (www.robjhyndman.com).
17 June 2014
2:00 p.m.
HES-SO Valais-Wallis
Sierre
Département de l‘économie,
de l‘énergie et du territoire
Departement für Volkswirtschaft,
Energie und Raumentwicklung
PROGRAMME
RESUME
Electricity demand forecasting plays an
Prof. Dr. Rob J. Hyndman is Professor
important role in short-term load alloca-
of Statistics at Monash University, Direc-
tion and long-term planning for future
tor of the Monash University Business and
generation
Economic Forecasting Unit, and Editor-in-
facilities
and
transmission
1.30
Reception
2:00
Introduction and discussions
Dr. Miriam Scaglione,
Professor HES-SO Valais-Wallis
2:15
1st matter of debate Prof. Dr. Rob J. Hyndman
Description of some Australian experiences in addressing these
problems, and a comprehensive forecasting solution designed to
take all the available information into account, and to provide forecast
distributions from a few hours ahead to a few decades ahead. The
approach is being used by energy market operators and supply companies to forecast the probability distribution of electricity demand in
various regions of Australia.
augmentation.
Chief of the International Journal of Fore-
It is a challenging problem because of the
casting. He has received several awards
different uncertainties including underlying
for his research including the 2007 Mo-
population growth, changing technology,
ran Medal from the Australian Academy of
2:45
Exchange and discussions
economic conditions, prevailing weather
Science. Prof. Dr. Hyndman has authored
conditions (and the timing of those condi-
over 130 papers, chapters or books on sta-
3:00
Break
tions), as well as the general randomness
tistical topics, and more than 200 consul-
3:15
2nd matter of debate Prof. Dr. Rob J. Hyndman
inherent in individual usage. It is also sub-
ting reports (see complete publication list
ject to some known calendar effects due to
on www.robjhyndman.com). His current re-
the time of day, day of week, time of year,
search projects include electricity demand
and public holidays. But the most chal-
forecasting, forecasting the age-structure
lenging part is that we often want to
of the population, forecasting large hierar-
forecast the peak demand rather than
chies of time series, and strategies for im-
the average demand. Consequently, it
proving multi-step forecasting.
is necessary to adopt a probabilistic view
of potential peak demand levels in order
to evaluate and hedge the financial risk
accrued by demand variability and forecasting uncertainty.
Discussion about some recent developments in evaluating peak demand forecasts, and
some research competitions that have generated some innovative new methods to tackle
energy forecasting problems.
3:45
Exchange and discussions
3:30
Apéro
5:00 p.m. for interested parties:
EnergyForum Valais/Wallis 2014 on the topic
«Energy Efficiency: how can energy consumption be
reduced and local economy be strengthened at the
same time?»
For further information:
www.energyforum-vs.ch
sponsored by