Prediction of available forage production of big sagebrush by William Henry Creamer IV A thesis submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science in Range Science Montana State University © Copyright by William Henry Creamer IV (1991) Abstract: The objective of this study was to develop a simple, reliable method to estimate the contribution of sagebrush taxa to range production. Regression equations were developed for mountain big sagebrush (Artemisia tridentata vaseyana), Wyoming big sagebrush (A. t. wyomingensis), and basin big sagebrush (A. t. tridentata) in high and low use form classes. Linear measurements including major and minor axis, height, and crown depth, along with average cover, and combinations of these measurements were used to predict total annual winter forage production. Colinearities among some variables required the development of 3 groups of variables (based on major or minor axis or elliptical area) to be used in the model building. A natural logarithm transformation of the dependent variable, forage, was necessary to stabilize nonconstant variance. Reliability of the relationships was based on the adjusted R2 statistic. Adjusted R2 values were similar for each subspecies and form class combination among variable groups. The variable group based on the measure of the maximum diameter (major axis) was selected as the most efficient variable group based on ease of measurement of the variables and high adjusted R2 values. Adjusted R2 values ranged from 0.78 to 0.90 for 3 to 4 variable models in this variable group. When the variable average seedhead weight was added to this variable group, adjusted R2 values improved. Values ranged from 0.87 to 0.93 for 4 to 5 variable models. Two variable models accounted for nearly as much variation in each case. The variables major axis and average cover were often the most meaningful. Major axis alone accounted for > 69% of the variation in low use taxa but < 59% in high use taxa. Average cover alone accounted for > 61% of the variation in all taxa form class combinations investigated and in the case of high use basin big sagebrush it accounted for 81% of the variation in production. PREDICTION OF AVAILABLE FORAGE PRODUCTION OF BIG SAGEBRUSH by William Henry Creamer IV A thesis submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science in Range Science MONTANA STATE UNIVERSITY Bozeman, Montana March 1991 ii APPROVAL of a thesis submitted by William Henry Creamer IV This thesis has been read by each member of the thesis committee and has been found to be satisfactory regarding content, English usage, format, citations, bibliographic style, and consistency, and is ready for submission to the College of Graduate Studies. / Date H/JmcJj.mi Chairperson, Graduate Committee Approved for the Major Department Head/Major/Department Approved for the College of Graduate Studies f) / f f / _ Date Graduate Dean iii STATEMENT OF PERMISSION TO USE In presenting requirements for this a thesis in master's degree fulfillment at Montana State make it available of the University, I agree that the rules of the Library. Brief quotations from this thesis are allowable without Library shall partial special permission, provided to borrowers under that accurate acknowledgment of. source is made. Permission thesis for extensive quotation may be granted from or reproduction of this by my major professor, or in his absence, by the Dean of Libraries when, in the opinion of either, the proposed use of the material is for material in this thesis scholarly purposes. Any copying or use of the for without my written permission. Signatu Date financial gain shall not be allowed iv To my wife, Patty, for her steadfast support. TABLE OF CONTENTS Page INTRODUCTION . . . .....................'............. '......... I 3 LITERATURE REVIEW................................................ Preface .................................................... Dimension Analysis for Trees.............. •........... . . Dimension Analysis for Shrubs .............................. Canopy Cover............................................ . • Taxonomy of Big Sagebrush .................................. Value to W i l d l i f e .................................... - • Form Classes.............................................. 3 4 4 6 7 8 9 STUDY A R E A ....................................... Location...................................... Topography.......................... C l i m a t e ......................................... S o i l s ...................................................... Vegetation................................................ Wildlife.................................................... METHODS AND MATERIALS............................................ H H 13 13 15 15 17 19 Data Collection............................................ 19 Shrub Measurements......................... 21 Other Variables.......................................... 23 Data A n a l y s i s ............................................ 24 RESULTS AND DISCUSSION........................................ ' Comparison of 3 Groups of Variables .......... . . . . . . Best Variable G r o u p ...................................... Addition of the Variable "Average Seedhead Weight (AS)" . . Low Use Mountain Big Sagebrush (ATVL)...................... High Use Mountain Big Sagebrush (ATVH).................... Low Use Wyoming Big Sagebrush (ATWL) . : .................... High Use Wyoming Big Sagebrush (ATWH)...................... Low Use Basin Big Sagebrush (ATTL) . . ...................... High Use Basin Big Sagebrush (ATTH)........................ 27 27 30 31 31 33 35 37 38 40 SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS............ • .......................... 41 REFERENCES CITED . 47 vi TABLE OF CONTENTS-Continued Page APPENDICES.................................................... Appendix A Appendix B Appendix C - Simple Statistics for Each Site............. - Scatter Diagrams for Each Taxon............. - Plant Species on the Study Area............. 55 56 63 70 ■, vii LIST OF TABLES. Table Page 1. Description and location of individual stands ................ 11 2. Groups of independent variables .............................. 26 3. Highest adjusted R2 equations for each subspecies and form class combination in each of 3 variable g r o u p s ..........28 4. Highest adjusted R2 equations for each subspecies and form class combination with average seedhead weight (AS) added to each group as an independent variable................29 5.. Group I models for low use mountain big sagebrush (ATVL) . . . 32 6. Group I models for high use mountain big sagebrush (ATVH) . . . 34 7. Group I models for low'use Wyoming big sagebrush (ATWL) .... 35 8. Group I models for high use Wyoming big sagebrush (ATWH) . . . . 37 9. Group I models for low use basin big sagebrush (ATTL) ........ .39 10. Group I models for high use basin big sagebrush (ATTH)........... 40 11. Simple statistics for low use mountain big sagebrush (ATVL) . . 12. Simple statistics for high use mountain big sagebrush (ATVL). . "58 13. Simple statistics for low use Wyoming big sagebrush (ATWL) . . 59 14. Simple statistics for high use Wyoming big sagebrush (ATWL) . . 60 15. Simple statistics for low use basin big sagebrush (ATTL) . . . . 61 16. Simple statistics for high use basin big sagebrush (ATTL) . . . 62 17. Plant species identified on the Gardiner study area .......... 71 57 viii LIST OF FIGURES Figure Page 1. Map of the Gardiner area showing topographic features with elevation in meters...................................... 12 2. Combinations of subspecies and form classes used in this s t u d y ..................................................... . • 20 Scatter diagrams for low use mountain big sagebrush (ATVL) showing linear relationships among variables as indicated by colinearity analysis......... '64 3. 4. Scatter diagrams for high use mountain big sagebrush (ATVH) showing linear relationships among variables as indicated by colinearity analysis........... .65 5. Scatter diagrams for low use Wyoming big sagebrush (ATWL) showing linear relationships among variables as indicated by colinearity analysis............................ ■........ 66 6. Scatter diagrams for high use Wyoming Big sagebrush (ATWH) showing linear relationships among variables as indicated by colinearity analysis ...................................... 67 Scatter diagrams for low use basin big sagebrush (ATTL) showing linear relationships among variables as indicated by colinearity analysis ...................................... 68 Scatter diagrams for high use basin big sagebrush (ATTH) showing linear relationships among variables as indicated by colinearity analysis.......... ....................... • • 69 7. 8. ABSTRACT The objective of this study was to develop a simple, reliable method to estimate the contribution of sagebrush taxa to range production. Regression equations were developed for mountain big sagebrush (Artemisia tridentata vaseyana), Wyoming big sagebrush (A. t. wyomingensis), and basin big sagebrush (A. t. tridentata) in high and low use form classes. Linear measurements including major and minor axis, height, and crown depth, along with average cover, and combinations of these measurements were used to predict total annual winter forage production.Colinearities among some variables required the development of 3 groups of variables (based on major or minor axis or elliptical area) to be used in the model building. A natural logarithm transformation of the dependent variable, forage, was necessary to stabilize nonconstant variance. Reliability of the relationships was based on the adjusted R2 statistic. Adjusted R2 values were similar for each subspecies and form class combination among variable groups. The variable group based on the measure of the maximum diameter (major axis) was selected as the most efficient variable group based on ease of measurement of the variables and high adjusted R2 values. Adjusted R2 values ranged from 0.78 to 0.90 for 3 to 4 variable models in this variable group. When the variable average seedhead weight was added to this variable group, adjusted R2 values improved. Values ranged from 0.87 to 0.93 for 4 to 5 variable models. Two variable models accounted for nearly as much variation in each case. The variables major axis and average cover were often the most meaningful. Major axis alone accounted for > 69% of the variation in low use taxa but < 59% in high use taxa. Average cover alone accounted for > 61% of the variation in all taxa form class combinations investigated and in the case of high use basin big sagebrush it accounted for 81% of the variation in production. I INTRODUCTION Big sagebrush (Artemisia tridentata Nutt.) is the most widespread and abundant shrub on rangelands of the western United States (McArthur > et al. 1979) . Sagebrush dominated vegetation comprises over 58 million hectares in the 11 western states (Beetle 1960). It occurs from southern British Columbia, Alberta northern Arizona mountain chain formed by coastal the and Saskatchewan and northern Baja, Mexico. Its western the Cascade, Sierra, ranges, and the Rocky Mountains in to central .New Mexico, limit is the and southern California northern Baja mountains. the southern half of its Its eastern limit is range and the western Dakotas in the northern portion (Harvey 1981) . Big s,agebrush provides cover and forage for a variety of rangeland wildlife species. Elk (Cervus elaphus nelsoni) and mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus) 1984). browse sagebrush The distribution heavily during the fall and winter (McNeal of pronghorn antelope (Antildcarpaamericana) and sage grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) are closely.associated with the distribution 1984). of big It .provides songbird sagebrush excellent cover for nesting, and small mammals important to other (Sundstrom ecosystem et al. 1973, elk calving, Roberson waterfowl and (Ewaschuk 1972). Sagebrush is also functions such as snow accumulation, nutrient cycling, wind chill reduction and shading. A procedure to predict the forage produced by the sagebrush complex is important to determine carrying capacity of the range, to detect trends in forage production and to measure plant response to management. The high forage values of sagebrush make it important for range 2 managers to accurately estimate forage production. Methods that involve clipping or harvesting are costly, time consuming, and destructive (Uresk et al. 1977) . Non-destructive procedures based on easily measured plant for dimensions to estimate production and biomass have been developed a variety of other plants (Tufts 1919, Pechanec and Pickford 1937, Weaver 1977, Andrew et al 1979). The Beetle ssp. big sagebrush complex consists of 4 subspecies (Beetle 1960, and Young 1965). Three subspecies, Mountain big sagebrush (A. t. vaseyana wyomingensis (Rydb.) Beetle Beetle), and Wyoming Young),and big Basin sagebrush (A. big sagebrush t. ssp. (A. t. ssp. trident at a) were of interest for this study. Differences in growth form, distribution, and forage qualities are well defined among these subspecies (Beetle 1960, Winward 1970, et ecology, phenology, animal preference, Depuit et al. 1973, Kelsey et al. 1976, Morris et al. 1976, Welch al. 1981, Wambolt et Harvey 1981, al .1987). Personius et al 1987, While taxonomic regression equations used to subspecies may be unique. Previous Striby differences predict forage et al 1987, may be production subtle, for each historical use, as it affects shrub morphology, may also affect prediction equations (Hughes et al. 1987) . The equations objectives of this study using easily measured plant were I) to develop regression dimensions to accurately predict forage production for mountain, Wyoming, and basin big sagebrush, and 2) to determine the effects, if any, of historical form classes, on regression analyses. use, based on present 3 LITERATURE REVIEW Preface Rapid and reliable techniques for estimating plant production and biomass and are needed.in range, wildlife, and ecosystem studies (Harniss Murray 1976, Ganskopp estimate are production or biomass from important to response 1982, and Miller 1986). Methods resource managers to defoliation, Rittenhouse nutrient and and estimates easily obtained plant dimensions to determine carrying seeding success (Murray Sneva 1977) . Detailed cycling, and competition that accurately capacity, and Jacobson succession in plant communities studies, also require of plant biomass and production (Ganskopp and Miller 1986) . Procedures that involve harvesting plants or parts of plants are time consuming, destructive and costly (Uresk et al.1977). Using the weight estimate technique considerable technique (Pechanec and Pickford 1937) requires a amount of training and clipping to verify estimates. The also results in mental fatigue after several hours of use (Cabral and West 1986) . A rapid, accurate clearly desirable. relationship harvest analysis. One technique. that requires approach little is to establish training is a mathematical between I or more easily obtained plant measurements and data. This procedure Uresk et al. is called double (1977) estimated that sampling or dimension clipping big sagebrush phytomass was 120 times more expensive than dimension analysis. 4 Dimension Analysis for Trees Foresters use plant measurements for estimates of biomass including board feet, cubic feet, and cords. Tufts (1919) found a high correlation between trunk circumference and weight of the top of fruit trees. Since Baskerville 1982) live then many others (Kittredge 1965, Grier and Waring 1944, Attiwill 1962, 1974, Brown 1978, Weaver and Lund have used various combinations of trunk diameter, total height, crown length, ratios of live crown length to total height, and crown widths to estimate tree biomass. These researchers showed strong relationships from these simple measurements in most cases. Dimension Analysis for Shrubs In 1958, Evans and Jones addressed the importance of a method for determining forage production in which clipping or mowing necessary. Since that time, much attention predicting production variety and biomass has been directed towards for a variety of variables. In most cases, was not of shrubs with a very strong relationships, with high r and R2 values have been reported. Measures successfully of crown and shrub areas and volumes have been used to predict different plant fractions (Uresk et al. 1977, Rittenhouse and Sneva 1977, Dean et al. 1981, Weaver 1977) . Murray and Jacobson (1982) found that relationships that to the observer different plant shapes weight varied between should decide used to calculate plant species. the most appropriate They suggest shape in the 5 field, and obtain the necessary measurements to calculate the area or volume that best approximates that shape. Lyon (1968), (Amelanchier heights predicted size-mass Montana from simple In area, aboveground also 1981, Harvey age, and production for Wyoming and that for twelve ecologically diverse used similar circumference, masses were of their sizes and Sneva used elliptical of aerial biomass for Wyoming big measurements shrub and included volumes to estimate and mountain big sagebrushes, and plains silversage (A. cana), cudweed found that shrub measurements production for serviceberry relationships based on crown Also in 1977, Rittenhouse area to predict sagebrush. production Weaver (.1977), relationships were similar shrubs. basal twig alnifolia) from volumetric and diameters. easily crown estimated fringed sagewort (A. frigida), and sagewort (A. ludoviciana) . Thus, a large variety of variables have been used in dimension analysis of shrubs. The most useful appear to be variables that express Log-log species (Bently et al., Kothmann problem (1979) and quadratic 1979) . Under with the crown size (Murray models have been useful 1970, Rittenhouse and or overestimation log-log models (Tausch and Jacobsen 1982). for a number of Sneva 1976, Bryant and of biomass appears to be a 1989). Bryant and Kothmann noted that the equation which should be used to predict weight from crown volume depends not only on plant species, but also sampling date. Bonham differences individual (1989) among concludes years, that seasons, site-year equations because the and locations should be used magnitude is so of great that until sufficient data are available for evaluation of site-regional equations. 6 Canopy Cover Hanley (1978) stated that canopy and useful parameter in the "best single (Lindsay ecological size of dominance range analysis. Cover measure community" 1956, of a plant or productivity, enough It is an of plants on precipitation soil temperature. Compared with precise importance cover for in a index of the serves as a criterion and canopy has been presented as species' Daubenmire 1959) . the plant. It and the influence Evaluations cover is a frequently measured of relative interception other parameters such as biomass is relatively research easily purposes measured. do not require excessive field time. A variety of methods have been devised for measuring plant canopy cover, but advantages and disadvantages vary with types of vegetation sampled and degrees of confidence and precision required. intercept method (Canfield 1941) is a frequently measuring canopy shrubs in the al. (1960) compared results cover of used technique for Great Basin. of line interception, The line Kinsinger et variable plot, and loop methods for shrub cover in Nevada and found the line interception method to be the most line-interception equivalent accurate. method and Hanley the 0.1 (1978) reported m2 quadrat that the method are in accuracy of measuring canopy coverage of big sagebrush, but that the line-interception method is more advantageous when a high degree cover of precision and confidence data as mentioned by is required. Taylor (1986) One disadvantage of is that in some species, canopy cover may vary considerably among seasons and years. 7 The value of canopy coverage measurements for predicting browse mass was recognized by Weaver (1986) . He postulates that if browse can be accurately wildlife predicted manager to from canopy estimate coverages, quantities it will of available allow a browse by analysis of an aerial photograph of the site. Taxonomy of Big Sagebrush The by name Artemisia tridentata Nuttall (1841) from a collection expedition in 1804. In tridentata and classified 1965, first given made by the 1916, Rydberg recognized it as a complex of to this species Lewis and Clark variations among A. 5 separate species. In Beetle and Young's classification, though similar to Rydberg's, assigned collections separation A. was to of 3 subspecies: t. wyomingensis, subspecies rather than species. Their A. t. vaseyana (mountain big sagebrush), (Wyoming big sagebrush), and A. t. tridentata, (basin big sagebrush), has been widely accepted. Since phenology, 1965 research has verified growth form, palatability, differences in ecology, and chemical composition among these three subspecies (Beetle 1960, Winward and Tisdale 1969, Winward 1970, Ward 1971, Morris et al. 1976, Wallmo et al 1977, McArthur 1979, Beetle and Johnson accurately 1982, Blaisdell categorize sagebrush et al 1982,). The need to more taxa for the purpose of improving resource management was summarized by A. A. Beetle who said in 1977, "It is no longer fashionable to refer in a general way to sagebrush... This wide variety in ecological adaptation, distribution, and significance reflects important differences in site potential and consequently in management technique. Knowledge of the ecological 8 characteristics .of the species,- and in many instances the subspecies of sagebrush will be an important tool to the range manager." Value to Wildlife Sagebrush animals. taxa Julander provide and Low cover (1976) and found forage for mule deer big to be game closely associated with sagebrush grasslands. They found mule deer were scarce in pre-pioneer and pioneer times, but deer numbers increased dramatically between 1925-1950. The reasons for this increase include: predator control, limited harvests, and a change in range composition from grass to shrubs. Antelope distribution distribution is closely of Wyoming big sagebrush associated with the (Sundstrom et al. 1973). These animals are obligates to sagebrush and have been known to travel large distances due to find sagebrush browse when local sources are unavailable to snow cover. found that Bighorn sheep sagebrush taxa can studies in Montana comprise 30-40% and Idaho have of winter diets (Schallenberger 1966). The most closely associated All of.the requirements are found in the sagebrush game bird for breeding, nesting, is the sagegrouse. rearing, and feeding dominated ecosystem (Wallestad and Pyrah a crude protein level near 11% throughout 1974, Remington 1985) . Big the sagebrush maintains winter (Welch and McArthur 1979). levels of about 4% for grasses. This compares to crude protein Thus, big sagebrush valuable winter forage for browsing ungulates. represents a 9 McNeal (1984) utilization et as "...surprising (in McNeal 1984) found 5% of postulates reflect a amount of sagebrush at elk feeding sites" on the Gardiner winter range. Greer al. (1970) much noted the diet that of Yellowstone big sagebrush special need that big sagebrush comprised as use by elk on for nutrients long migration. Elk also fall and winter Park elk. McNeal the winter not provided by (1984) range may grass after the use big sagebrush grasslands heavily in the for thermal and hiding cover (Mackie 1980) . These areas provide safe calving grounds for the elk during the spring. Form Classes Cook and Stoddard (1960) showed that repeated herbage removal could induce a hedged appearance in big sagebrush. McNeal (1984) found that subjectively assigned form classes in big sagebrush reflected actual browsing use. Kelsey (1985) observed no visible morphological change in mountain big sagebrush following 2 years of clipping 50% of annual growth. Several years of continuous use are probably required to visibly alter plant morphology (Personius 1985). Weaver (1977) concluded that if browse biomass estimates, based on lightly browsed shrubs were applied to plants with reduced (through browsing) diameters, actual potential browse Hughes, browse would be overestimated. and above ground Varner, and Blankenship (1987) greatly modified plant form will separate biomass would be found that However, underestimated. treatments which probably require regression equations from those for undisturbed vegetation. Equations to predict 10 browse needed. for both heavily and lightly used shrubs are therefore 11 STUDY AREA DESCRIPTION Location The Gallatin the study area is located near" Gardiner National Forest of southwestern Yellowstone River valley at 1694 Montana. (Figure I) in the Gardiner lies in m (5505 ft) surrounded by peaks reaching 3353 m (11,000 ft). Stands high (Table I) of each subspecies of big or low use form classes were Creek to the east, U.S. Highway sagebrush in either located in an area bounded by Bear 89 to the south, and Little Trail Creek to the west. Stand #5 was located in Yankee Jim Canyon, about 22 km northwest of Gardiner. The Absaroka-Beartooth Wilderness forms a less distinct northern boundary. Table I. Description and location of individual stands. Stand ssp Elev. Form class- (m) Habitat type I A.t.va low 2195 A.t.va/Feid 2 A.t.va high 2049 A.t.va/Agsp 3 A.t.wy low 1646 A.t.wy/Agsp 4 A.t.wy high 1854 A.t.wy/Agsp 5 A.t.tr low 1707 A.t.tr/Agsp 6 A.t.tr high 1951 A.t.tr/Agsp soil group Legal desc.. SE corner, SWl/4 sec. 7, T9S, R9E NE corner, NE1/4 sandy sec.13, T9S, R9E SW corner, NE1/4 sandy loam sec.16, T9S, R9E sandy loam . SW corner, SWl/4 sec.10, T9S, R8E NW corner, NWl/4 silt loam sec. 3, T8S., R7E NE corner, SE1/4 silt sec.18, T9S, R9E silt loam Common names of scientific name abbreviations are: A.t.va - mountain big sagebrush; A.t.wy - Wyoming big sagebrush; A.t.tr - basin big sagebrush; Feid - Idaho fescue; Agsp - Bluebunch wheatgrass. 12 Road MONTANA SI r e a m 1.6 K m A BSAROKA -BEARTOOTH WILDERNESS PARKER POINT JARDINE (2408 (2000 m) m) Little Trail Creek/ Cree TRAVERTINE FLATS (1903 m ) DECKARD FLATS (1908 GARDINER / (1 6 9 4 ^ ) / YNP Yellowstone River Figure I. Map of the Gardiner study area. m) 13 Topography The topography of the study area is characterized by relatively flat or rolling benchlands.rising rain shadow produced by these mountains of to high steep-sided mountains. The makes the benches and slopes the Gardiner valley an important wintering area for mule deer, and elk. Bison, bighorn sheep, and antelope also use some portions of the area as well. These benches are dissected by deeply entrenched streams (McNeaI 1984) . Slopes of 50-60 % rise from the Yellowstone River and Bear Creek to the 1-2 km wide basalt bench which extends from the Park line the northwest to Little Trail Creek. Absaroka Mountains elevation Morainal increases Slopes then rise abruptly into from Deckard 1100 m within and Travertine 5 km of the Flats. Overall, Yellowstone River. topography provides a more gradual ascent into the mountains in the Eagle Creek drainage (McNeal 1984). Much greatly slopes of the study area has a south enhances its value and west facing aspect which as a winter range. are found along stream channels North and east facing and in the mountains. Concave and convex shaped slopes of 2 - 70 % rise are present (McNeal 1984) . Climate . Thornthwaite's humid (1948) classification with a summer water shows the Gardiner area as deficiency. However, convectional showers 14 are common and provide some growing season moisture. Winter storms are more widespread and can be severe. Snow may be 1-2 m deep in nearby mountains yet absent in Gardiner (McNeal 1984). Fames' climate created isohyets by the rain shadow in closely following land contours elevation. along (1975) precipitation map of the area illustrates the dry Annual average the Yellowstone benches and up to the Gardiner from 30.5 cm (12 in) to about 40' cm (16 in) 76.1 cm (30 in) in with and greatly increasing with precipitation ranges River, valley on the basalt the surrounding mountains. Roughly half of this moisture occurs as snow. The U.S. Weather Bureau station at Mammoth is located about 300 m higher a and 8 km upstream (south) from Gardiner. This station provides good representation Weather data of climatic collected precipitation of over conditions 100 41.2 cm (16.25 in). years for the study show annual February is the area. average driest month, averaging 2.7cm (1.05 in) and June is the wettest month, averaging 4.9 cm (1.92 January in). The is the mean annual coldest month temperature averaging is 4.1° -7.4° C (39.9° C (18.7° F) F) . and July is the warmest month averaging 17.3° C (63.1° F) . Typically, the growing season is mid-April to mid-September although a killing frost can occur during any month. Fall regrowth can be substantial if conditions are favorable (McNeaI 1984) . 15 Soils Soils deposition in the area are the result of glacial scouring, morainal and outwash sediments. The parent materials are a mixture of granites and limestones derived from glacial action in areas to the south and east. The soil climate is characterized by cold winters and dry summers. Glaciation has resulted in variable soil depths. Shallow soils of only a few several area cm occur in covered scoured areas m occur in depositional areas. has a sandy Course glacially loam texture granite erratics and a high which soils of The glacial till in the study fragment size ranges from gravels with and deep course fragment content. to boulders. The surface is probably came from the Black Canyon of the Yellowstone (Pierce 1979 in McNeal 1984) . Mollisols loamy-skeletal (Gallatin Inceptisols are the most common soils. Aridic Haploborolls N. F., U. S. can Soil families to fine-loamy Pachic Argiborolls Forest Service soils survey occur near bedrock outcrops range from in McNeal 1984). and Alfisols occur in forested areas. Vegetation Study 54% area vegetation is predominantly sagebrush-grassland. Over of the area is open sagebrush-grass range with another 14% having 16 sagebrush 27% dominated understory and of the area is continuous a scattered tree overstory. About forest which begins at 2300 m. The remaining 5% is clearcut (McNeal 1984). Three nova subspecies of big sagebrush and black sagebrush (Artemisia A. Nels.) occur sympatrically sagebrush the is closely associated overstory in Pleistocene-aged sandy till limestone throughout the study area. Black with calcareous covering rock formed soils and dominates travertine (a decorative, from hot calcareous 'spring water). Mountain big sagebrush is the most frequent and dominant shrub in the area and is the only sagebrush taxon found above 2100 m (McNeal 1984) . Wyoming big resulting glacial silts. lower from Basin sagebrush is found on outwash and big sagebrush deep sandy more recently grows downslope portions of steep slopes, along loam placed of basalt soils alluvial outcrops, on irrigation ditches or in other areas where soil moisture is artificially increased. Bluebunch Idaho fescue understory related facing (Agropyron idahoensis respective spicatum (Pursh) Elmer) are species on the study area. Scribn.) and the 2 most important Dominance by either species is tolerances for aridity (McNeal 1984). wheatgrass dominates lower elevation sites with steep south exposures, sandy soil, and factors. not (Festuca to their Bluebunch north wheatgrass Idaho fescue is facing slopes, and other sites with moisture limiting a prominent grass at higher elevations, on on deep silty soil sites limiting. Other locally important grasses where moisture is are prairie junegrass 17 (Koeleria Trin. pyramidata (Lam.) Beauv.), & Rupr.), and Indian ricegrass needleandthread (Stipa comata (Oryzopsis hymenoides (R. & S .) Ricker). Wildlife The Large study area is part of the northern Yellowstone winter range. herds of elk often months. Most move into the study of the elk summer area during the winter on the Yellowstone Plateau while a smaller number summer in the mountainous Absaroka-Beartooth Wilderness (McNeal 1984) . Small summer herds exposed hillsides along the Yellowstone fall snows deepen begin to congregate on benches and in the mountains. River and its tributaries as This assemblage of elk is a portion of the northern Yellowstone elk herd. Although estimates vary, there may have been as many as 25,000 animals during the winter of 1987-1988 in the entire northern elk herd. Elk begin arriving in the Gardiner area as early as mid-November (McNeaI ' 1984) . Many continue their migration to the area as conditions in the mountains and on the Yellowstone Plateau worsen. Elk migration in large numbers beyond the Park boundary may occur I year in 2 or 2 years in 3 (Houston 1978) . The number of elk using the study area year may vary from a few hundred to several thousand depending on the (McNeaI Gardiner 1984) . Some may travel as area (Craighead et al. 1972).. The far as 113 km to reach the winter range north of.the Park is indispensable in severe winters to offset the lack of suitable wintering areas within the Park. Most of the elk have usually left the study area by May and returned to popular summering areas. 18 McNeal occupants and of or more mule deer are seasonal the Gardiner winter range Parks Dept, surveys Most the (1984) estimates that 400 while Montana Fish, Wildlife estimate over 600 in of the deer appear the winter of 1989-90. to spend summers in the nearby mountains of Absaroka-Beartooth Wilderness,in Yellowstone Park or on the study area itself. They usually begin to arrive on the study area around October I and may remain through June. Other winter along big game animals range. Small bands infrequently appear on of bighorn sheep (Ovis the Gardiner canadensis) winter the bluffs of the Yellowstone River and Bear Creek near Deckard Flats. Moose (Alces alces) are occasional visitors to the area. During deep snow Yellowstone winters, a few bison (Bison bison) migrating down the River valley may cross the Park boundary onto the Deckard Flats area and remain for short periods 1984, the bison have migrated further of time (McNeal 1984) . Since down the Yellowstone River. In the winter of 1988 bison traveled as far as Yankee Jim Canyon, some 14 miles north of Gardiner. Additional large animal species sometimes present in the area are Grizzly bears (Ursus arctos) and black bears (U. americanus) which are present in herbivores. the fall and spring Coyote (Canuslatrans)r in association with the large bobcat (Lynxrufus) and mountain lion (Fells concolor) also may be present in the area. 19 METHODS M D MATERIALS Data Collection Stands located of in both high Subspecies were classification in Wyoming, and and low use initially basin big sagebrushes form classes during identified June of 1989. taxonomically of Beetle (1960). Identifications were following the were later verified the lab using the ultraviolet light technique developed by Stevens and McArthur appearance of mountain, result Continuous branched crowns. This very distinctive High in more plants determined produces growth by the overall form shorter, gives the plant a dense, appearance. The crowns slopes, was (Figure more hedged, use stands were located on remote areas (Fig. were usually interference are more open, growthy, club-like situated (i.e. roads) near areas Stands where human inhibited elk and mule more and relatively south or west 2: B, D, F). 2). intricately Lightly browsed plants exhibit longer leaders and a unbranched. facing of low use occupation or deer use, and in I where deep snows prevented winter access (Fig. 2: A, C, E). The following (ATWH), 6 stands were located: low use Wyoming sagebrush basin in a browsing over time appearance. case, Form class of each shrub. Browsing by elk and mule deer over a number years bushy (1974) . (ATVH), big sagebrush (Figure 2). high use Wyoming big sagebrush (ATWL), low use mountain big (ATTH), and low big sagebrush high use mountain big sagebrush (ATVL), use basin big high use sagebrush (ATTL) 20 E F Figure 2. Combinations of subspecies and form classes used in the study. (A) low use basin big sagebrush (ATTL), (B) high use basin big sagebrush (ATTH), (C) low use mountain big sagebrush (ATVL), (D) high use mountain big sagebrush (ATVH), (E) low use Wyoming big sagebrush (ATWL), (F) high use Wyoming big sagebrush (ATWH). 21 Sampling September, the started in late 1989. This allowed ephemeral leaves which July, 1989, and continued for the nearly are not through complete abscission of considered available winter browse. Only the current crop of perennial leaves persists over winter (Miller and Shultz 1987). A stratified random sampling design was used in order to obtain a representative Randomly sample selected of the medium or large medium and sampling of sampled, different, equaled sized shrubs design prevented the sampling at each site. (relatively) for the site. The final large shrubs proportion sized shrubs plants were determined small, the different to be either proportion of small, an occular for each estimate site. of This of all one size class. Thirty shrubs were sampled on each site. Shrub Measurements The the overall height (HT) of each sagebrush plant was measured to nearest cm from its base to the highest non-reproductive foliage. This study was therefore heights interested in forage available the maximum plant height for mountain and to deer and elk and was set at 140 cm. (55 in). Plant Wyoming big sagebrush were well below this height (Appendix A ) . However, some basin big sagebrush individuals can reach heights of over 2m., so only plants under 135 cm. in height were sampled. Two Sneva measurements 1977) . of crown width The major axis were taken (MJ) was considered (Rittenhouse to be and the maximum 22 horizontal distance across the plant crown from living plant tissue to living plant tissue. perpendicular to The minor axis (MN) was the maximum crown width the major axis, ■and was also measured from living tissue to living tissue. Only photosynthetic plant tissue was used for the beginning, and photosynthetic are included the end points of openings in the canopy in these these distances. Non - were considered continuous and measurements. All measurements were to the nearest I cm. Line intercept canopy collected cover measurements as actively growing leaves, current measurements additional to for were plant material. This twigs, made along axes. These and includes perennial reproductive the major stalks. and minor axes axes were perpendicular to the intersection of the Cover and along 2 to each other and 45 major and minor axes. Total cover for each axis was measured. These 4 cover totals summed and divided by 4 to yield the variable average cover (AC) each plant. sampled. of growth the nearest cm were 1941) were along 4 crown axes for each . shrub sampled. Intercepts were defined degrees (Canfield The crown depth (CD) was measured This is the vertical distance for each shrub in cm of the foliated portion the crown (Dean et al. 1981) . Several measurements were collected and averaged for each plant. Only vegetative leaders were measured. The counted After reproductive stalks for each plant, drying, seedheads seedhead weight (AS) and or seedheads were oven dried were weighed to the clipped at the base, for 48 at 60 nearest 0.1 g. was calculated ■ as the weight divided by the number of the seedheads. hours C. Average of the seedheads 23 After foliage was removed from ephemeral easily leaf these measurements were collected bud scars. current the plant. This includes .perennial leaves, leaves (if, any), and current discernible in the field, the green on the basis of Browsing twig growth. Young twigs were color, texture ungulates may remove twig growth, but for the purpose of the bark, and more than just the of this study, only current twig growth is considered available annual winter forage. After was oven drying for at least weighed to the nearest 48 hours at 0.1 g. This variable, 60° C. the foliage forage (F), became the dependent variable for the regression analysis. Basal stem numbers and diameters sagebrush (Dean et. al. 19-81), and variables in therefore measured for encountered collection not regression had diameters for big used successfully for independent analysis. Basal stem each plant, but most of several measured trunks diameters were the sagebrush plants of irregular shape. This made of this variable very awkward and time consuming. This was an easily results, have been measured variable ' for future nor was it considered free were not included use of this studies from human bias. Thus basal stem in the variables used in the regression analysis. Other Variables The other previously described field measurements variables combinations of to be used the field in the regression measurements were used to derive analysis. yielded variables Various that 24 represent elliptical crown area, crown volume, circular crown areas based on 2 different Elliptical canopy pi(MJ/2)(MN/2), where respectively. elliptical as area MJ and MN are by the formula the major and minor (1970), axes, Shrub volume was defined is the plant height and canopy. Peek E = as CV = E (CD), where E is the area and CD is the crown depth. of the and crown radii. determined Crown volume was defined SV = E(HT), where HT area was shrub volume, and Harvey E is the elliptical (1981) refer to this variable as crown volume. The crowns of heavily circular crown Jacobson's (1982) appropriate circular for plant were considered. suggestion that This the shape in the field. more rounded, so follows observer Murray determine Two variables and the that represent area of the canopy were investigated. The circular area (Cl) the major where areas browsed plants appeared axis was determined MJ is the major axis. And the axis was determined by the formula by the formula, Cl = pi(MJ/2)2, circular area (C2) for the minor C2 = pi (MN/2)2, where MN is the minor axis. Data Analysis The intention of this study was to I) develop reliable regression equations to predict sagebrushes contrast class. annual available forage from each of the 3 big in both high or low use form class, and 2) to compare and easily computed The models regression for each of the models for each taxon and form 6 combinations of subspecies and 25 form class were developed separately. Several models were considered and compared for each subspecies and form class combination. Models were evaluated adjusted of R2 statistic determination and the sample from basis of adjusted is calculated (R2) for size. by adjusting the number This R2 values. the of parameters adjustment prevents The coefficient in the model the R2 statistic becoming artificially inflated as the number of variables in the model increases generally (Neter similar Scatter and on the to al. 1985). R2 values, diagrams were dependent variables variable et to variable (F)" and (F)" relationship was added to nonconstant was log transformed variance exhibited are smaller. pair of independent tendencies. The mountain big sagebrush (ATVL) was (natural in with the the model No other curvilinear relationships were found. "forage R2 values somewhat to identify any curvilinear have a curvilinear "forage though constructed for each "height (HT)" for low use determined Adjusted dependent as HT2 for ATVL. The dependent variable logarithm) the initial to stabilize plots of ,predicted values versus residual error terms. Nonconstant variance is a direct result of the sampling method. The variance stabilizing log transformation is transformation and widely a powerful used (Murray and Jacobson 1977, Rittenhouse and Sneva 1977, Dean et al. 1981). Colinearity identified analysis for each taxon and form colinearities among some class combination of the variables. The variables, "major axis (MJ)", and "minor axis (MN)", were determined to be nearly colinear (E)". with each other and also- with the variable "elliptical area This may be caused by the fact that the crowns of the plants 26 sampled were all similarly variables is nearly variables in Variables were "major any identical so I model separated axis (MJ)", shaped. Information inclusion of more is inappropriate into 3 minor axis derived (MN)" and than I of these (Neter groups to split for the 3 et al. up the "elliptical 1985) . variables area (E)" and thereby avoid colinearities (Table 2). Each of 3 groups of independent variables was analyzed in the model building procedure. Models were evaluated and compared on the basis of the adjusted R2 statistic. Table 2. Groups of independent variables. Each variable group includes only "major axis (MJ)" or "minor axis (MN)" or "elliptical area (E)" in addition to the other variables measured.______________________■ Group I MJ Group 2 MN Group 3 E HT HT2 CD AC AC CV C2 SV Variable abbreviations: MJ-major axis, MN-minor axis, E-elliptical HT-height, HT2 (for A t v l only), CD-crown depth, AC-average area, cover, Cl-circular areal, C2-cir area2, CV-crown volume, SV-shrub vol. HT HT2 CD AC Cl HT HT2 CD Models are of the form: In(F) = bQ+ X1+ X2+ X3+ X4+ X5+ X6+ X7+ e where: F = Available winter forage bo= y-intercept X°= major (MJ) or minor axis (MN) or elliptical area (E) X2= height (HT) X3= HT2 for low use mountain big sagebrush (ATVL) only X4= crown depth (CD) X = average cover (AC) X6= circular areal (Cl) or cir area2 (C2) or crown volume (CV) X7= shrub volume (SV) e = residual error all X terms have an associated constant = b 27 RESULTS M D DISCUSSION This highest chapter is divided into 2 parts. adjusted combination R2 models for each In the first section, the subspecies and form class are presented for groups of variables that were chosen to avoid colinearity. The second section will discuss the best models for each form class-taxon themselves combination to easy field with models applications. My choice in the model and the ease of measuring those variables may not be the adjusted R2 model R2 model since (Tables 3 and R2 values, of the best models the basis adjusted adjusted that may lend on highest of high along the number the difference of variables between the highest 4) and a simpler (fewer variables) model may be very small, often <1%. Comparison of 3 Groups of Variables Colinearities investigation of building process. among the variables MJ, 3 separate variable While it MN, and E groups (Table is not possible mandated the 2) in the model to compare adjusted R2 values with a test statistic, Table 3 indicates that differences among the 3 variable groups in adjusted R2 values are small. That is, each variable group predicts annual winter forage production for all 3 subspecies and form classes of big sagebrush with essentially the same precision. This is also the case when the variable "average seedhead weight (AS)" is included in the model (Table 4). 28 Table 3. Highest adjusted R2’equations for each subspecies and form _________ class combination in each of the 3 variable groups (Table 2). Taxon and form Root Adj R2 R2 MSE Group I Models class ATVL ATVH In (F) = .647+.034(MJ)+ .031(AC)-.0002 (Cl) In (F) = .311+.037(MJ)+ .047 (AC)-.0003(Cl)+ .017(CD) .88 .90 .89 .91 .35 .24 ATWL ATWH In (F) = .322+.048(MJ)+ .017(AC)-.0003(Cl) In (F) = .535+.008(MJ)+ .026 (AC)+ .029 (HT)+ .025(CD) .88 .84 .90 .24 .26 ATTL ATTH In (F)=2.18+.013(MJ)+.019(AC)-.010(HT)+ .035(CD) . .78 .88 In (F)=1.89+.011(MJ) +.037 (AC) +.005 (HT) -.00005 (Cl) .82 .86 .89 .35 .21 Group 2 Models In (F)=1.059+.054 (MN)+ .025(AC)-.0004 (C2) In (F) = .794+.041 (MN)+ .047 (AC)-.0005 (C2)+ .009 (HT) +.033(CD) .89 .90 .34 .89 .91 .25 ATWL ATWH In (F) = .729+.043(MN)+ .031(AC)-.0003 (C2) In (F)=-.008+.055 (MN)+ .030 (AC)-.0007 (C2)+ .024(HT) .81 .84 .83 .87 .30 .26 ATTL ATTH In (F)=2.53+.009 (MN)+.020 (AC) In (F)=1.93+.021 (MN)+ .027(AC)-.0002 (C2)+ .006 (HT) -.OlO(CD) .73 .75 .40 .89 .91 .20 .81 .90 .83 .44 .92 .23 .83 .87 .28 .85 .88 .25 .78 .82 .36 .88 .89 .21 ATVL ATVH Group 3 Models ATVL ATVH ATWL ATWH In (F)=1.34+.0005 (E)+ .029 (AC) + .0002 (HT2) -.000006(SV) In (F) =1.67-.0003 (E)+ .065 (AC)-.008 (HT)+ .00001 (CV) In (F) = .124+.0008 (E)+ .018(AC)- . 0 2 (HT)-.000007 (SV) - 0 0 0 0 0 2 (CV)+ . 0 6 8 (CD) In (F)=-.246+.0007 (E)+ .031(AC)+ .043(HT)-.000009 (SV) -.00004(CV)+.082(CD) ATTL In (F)=1.41+.0003 (E)+.020 (AC)-.005 (HT)-.00001 (CV) + . 0 8 2 (CD) ATTH In (F)=2.39+.030 (AC)+.007 (HT)-.016(CD) Equation abbreviations; F-Forage(g), MJ-Major axis(cm), MN-Minor axis (cm)., HT-Height (cm), AC-Average cover (cm), CD-Grown depth (cm), Cl-Circular areal(cm2), C2-Circular ■area2 (cm2), SV-Shrub vol. (cm3), E Elliptical area (cm2), CV - Crown volume (cm3), Abbreviations for taxon and form class: ATVL-Iow use mountain big sagebrush, ATVH - high use mountain big sagebrush, ATWL - low use Wyoming big sagebrush, ATWH - high use Wyoming big sagebrush, ATTL low use basin big sagebrush, ATTH-high use basin big sagebrush. Root MSE=MSEv2. 29 Table 4. Highest adjusted R2 equations for each subspecies and form class combination when average seedhead weight (AS) is added to each group as an independent variable. Taxon Root and form MSE R2 Adj R2 class Group I Models ATVL ATVH ATWL ATWH ATTL ATTH In (F) = .65+.380 (AS)+.029 (AC)+ .038 (MJ)-.0002 (Cl) In (F) = .31+.047 (AC)+.037(MJ)+ .017(CD)-.0003 (Cl) In (F) =.51+3.72(AS)+ .018(AC)+ .044 (MJ) -. 026 (CD) -.0002(Cl) In (F) = .68+.86 (AS)+ .026 (AC)+.009 (MJ)+ .043(HT) In (F)=1.95+1.00 (AS)+.023(AC)+ .008 (MJ) In (F)=1.89+.027 (AC)+ .011(MJ)-.005 (HT) - .00005(C1) .90 • .90 .91 .91 .33 .24 .93 .87 .89 .94 .89 .90 .18 .24 .25 .88 .89 .21 .93 .94 .27 .89 .91 .25 .88 .90 .24 .86 .86 .88 .88 .25 .28 .89 .91 .20 .86 .88 .38 .90 .92 .23 .87 .90 .24 .87 .89 .24 .89 .88 .91 .89 .25 .21 Group 2 Models ATVL ATVH ATWL ATWH ATTL ATTH In (F) =1.45+.633(AS)+ .055 (MN)+ .017(AC)-.0003 (C2) -.031(CD) In (F) = .794+.041 (MN)+.047 (AC)-.0005 (CA2)+ .009 (HT) +.033(CD) In (F) = .856+4.69 (AS)+ .047 (MN)+ .026 (AC)-.0004 (C2) -.037(CD) In (F) = .203+.644(AS)+ .043 (MN)+ .030 (AC)-.0005 (C2) +.022(HT) In (F)=1.78+1.06 (AS)+006 (MN) +.022 (AC) + .006 (HT) In (F)=1.93+.022(MN)+ .027 (AC)-.0002 (C2) + .006 (HT) -.OlO(CD) Group 3 Models ATVL ATVH ATWL ATWH ATTL ATTH In (F)=1.30+.623(AS)+.0006 (E)+.021(AC) + .0002 (HT2) -.000007(SV) In (F) =1.73-.307 (AS)-.0003 (E)+ .065 (AC)-.008 (HT) +.OOOOl(CV) In (F) = .097+3.84 (AS)+ .0006 (E)+ .018(AC)-.018(HT) -.000005(SV)-.000009(CV) In (F) = .474+.772 (AS)+ .00-04 (E)+.772 (AC)+ .038 (HT) -.000007(SV) In(F) =1.60+1.02 (AS)+ .0002 (E)+.020 (AC)+ .010 (HT) -.OOOOOl(SV) In (F)=2.39+.030(AC)+.007 (HT)-.016(CD) Equation abbreviations; F-Forage(g), MJ-Major axis(cm), MN-Minor axis (cm), AS-Average seedhead weight (g), HT-Height (cm), AC-Average cover (cm), CD-Crown depth(cm), Cl-Circular areal(cm2, C2-Circular area2 (cm2), SV-Shrub volume (cm3), E-Elliptical area (cm2), CVCrown volume (cm3). Abbreviations for taxon and form class: ATVLIow use mountain big sagebrush, ATVH-high use mountain big sagebrush, ATWL - low use Wyoming big sagebrush, ATWH - high use Wyoming big sagebrush, ATTL - low use basin big sagebrush, ATTH - high use basin big sagebrush. Root MSE=MSE^2. 30 Best Variable Group Colinearity analysis indicated that the 3 variables MJf MN, and E all have strong investigation relationships. subspecies linear relationships demonstrated Scatter and form the plots with each other. strengths (Appendix class revealed B) of of Further these linear MJ vs MN for each a linear relationship for these variables in each case. This evidence indicates that MJ is essentially equal to MN for each taxon and form class combination. Mathematically, E approaches the value of MJ times MN as the constants are absorbed in the bn term in equal show to MN2. Scatter groups that each describe measuring E vs then E MJ2 and is MN2 information and the 3 variable the same relationships. The logical "best" variable group the variables used in the employing the most easily criterion then is the ease of model. Group I has the advantage measured variables. The models in this are based on a measurement of the major axis only. Groups 2 and both require major of = MN, as expected. In the model building area all describe the same should determine the group plots If MJ for this data set, the variables major axis, minor axis, and elliptical 3 MJ2 = equation. a strong linear relationship process, of the regression an additional measurement of the minor axis as the axis must be determined in order to locate the minor axis. This additional measurement increases the amount of field time required and does Thus, not seem to increase I conclude that the accuracy Group I is the of the models best variable appreciably. group as the variables are easier to collect and the resulting models are reliable. 31 Addition of the Variable "Average Seedhead Weight (AS)" The addition of the variable, "average seedhead weight (AS)" (Table 4) values for somewhat ATTL to each variable group does most taxon-form class combinations. time consuming to collect, there is improvement in increase the adjusted This R2 variable is but, in the cases of ATVL, ATWL, the adjusted R2 values, and a decrease in the root MSE in each variable group. For the high use form classes, ATVH and ATTH, there is no for ATWH increase in the R2 values and the increases group. This can be explained in terms of low inflorescence production in heavily used plants. to the model is most meaningful are very small for adjusted Consequently, each variable the addition of this variable for predicting forage production in low use subspecies. Low Use Mountain Big Sagebrush (ATVL) Annual best All winter forage production can be reliably predicted by the model (Table 5) for this subspecies variables variable are significant model has at P < .01 easily measured and form class combination. for the best parameters, and model. This 3 a high adjusted R2 value. Dean mountain 0.85. precise et al. (1981) developed a big model for predicting biomass of sagebrush. Their model included 4 variables with R2 = The best model for as Dean ATVL is in close agreement (1981) included the variable and may be more crown denseness (%), 32 which is an ocular consistency. is estimate ■ and required calibration to insure Instead, the variable average cover (AC) is utilized. AC preferable as it is a practical, rapid and statistically sound technique, and is less subjective (Canfield 1941). Table 5. Group I models for low use mountain big sagebrush (ATVL). ROOT MSE R2 ADJ R2 Best model In (F) = .647+.034 (MJ)+ .031(AC)-.0002(Cl) .88 .89 .35 .83 .84 .42 .81 .79 .78 .83 .80 .80 ' .44 .46 .47 .78 .70 .79 .71 .47 .56 .91. ; .33 3 Variable model In (F)=0.621+.037 (MJ)+ .046 (CD)-.00023 (Cl) 2 Variable models In (F)=1.23+.038 (MJ)-.0001 (Cl) In (F)=1.39+.019(MJ)+ .041(CD) In (F)=1.96+.017(MJ)+.009 (AC) I Variable models In (F)=1.96+.021 (MJ) In (F)=2.26+.037 (AC) Model with AS included In (F) = .65+.38 (AS)+ .038 (MJ)+.029 (AC)-.0002 (Cl) .90 Equation abbreviations; F-Forage (g), MJ-Major axis (cm), HT-Height (cm), AC-Average cover (cm), CD-Crown depth(cm), Cl-Circular areal (cm2), AS-Average seedhead weight (g) . Root MSE=MSE1/2. The next highest is adjusted R2 model similar to the best model except also has 3 variables and that the variable AC is replaced by CD. There is a decrease in the adjusted R2 value of 0.05. Three ATVL. MJ different 2 variable models predict forage fairly well for is included in each with either Cl, CD, or AC. The 33 differences in negligible. presented The adjusted easiest includes MJ R2 values 2 variable and and model Cl. This root MSE to use model terms of the requires are 3 models only I field measurement as Cl is calculated from the measurement of the major axis and has an adjusted R2 = 0.81. Two These single variables that predict forage for ATVL are MJ and AC. 2 models represent high reliability very easily applied with adjusted R2 = models with reasonably 0.78 and R2 = 0.70, respectively. It is interesting to note that AC alone accounts for 70% of the variability in predicting forage production for ATVL.. The addition of the variable average is significant .88 to .90 variable is at P<.05, for this does improve the subspecies and form does require more field time of this variable is useful adjusted class R2 value from combination. This to collect, but the collection straightforward and can be entrusted addition seedhead weight (AS),which to less skilled workers. The when a model to describe as much variation as possible is required. High Use Mountain Big Sagebrush (ATVH) The highest variables. This which adjusted R2 model for But the variable ATVH in Table CD is not significant results in a model with the variables are the same variable models Adjusted R2 values variables used for ATVH are high and root 4 and was excluded. MJ, AC, and Cl, (Table 6) in the best model include 3 includes the variables MSE terms are for ATVL. MJ, AC, Two and Cl. acceptable. In 34 order to calculate Cl, the major axis must be measured. In the case of ATVH, the 0.85 model while the 2 adjusted R2 = variables which combines variable 0.69. So in MJ, and AC with model an adjusted that combines this case, AC in the field Cl has MJ and Cl it is necessary and calculate Cl R2 = has an to collect 2 to use the best model. A 2 variable model for ATVH does not improve efficiency. Table 6. Group I models for high use mountain big sagebrush (ATVH) ADJ R2 Best model In (F)=0.489+.037 (MJ)+ .050 (AC)-.0003 (Cl) ROOT MSE R2 .24 .90 .91 .85 .80 .69 .86 .29 .82 .71 .33 .42 .78 .46 .79 .48 .36 .56 2 Variable models In (F)=1.36+.066 (AC)-. 0001 (Cl) In (F)=1.73-.010(MJ)+.063 (AC) In (F)=0.30+.081 (MJ)-.00005 (Cl) I Variable models In (F)=1.75+.046 (AC) In(F)=2.36+.018(MJ) Equation abbreviations; F-Forage (g), MJ-Major axis (cm), AC Average cover(cm), CD-Crown depth(cm), Cl-Circular areal(cm2), Root MSE= MSEv2. Average winter ATVH. forage But MJ mountain big variable cover (AC) alone production, only accounts sagebrush. is again a strong accounting for for 46% In fact, predictor of annual 78% of the of the variation low adjusted variation for for R2 values high use for this are the case in each of the high use taxa studied (Tables 6, 8, and 10).■ 35 The addition comparison of AS of Tables 3 did not improve the and 4 reveals that AS model for ATVH. A did not enter into the model for ATVH. Low Use Wyoming Big Sagebrush (ATWL) Group I variables this the R2 for both the produce taxon and form class the highest adjusted combination (Table R2 models for 3). All 3 variables in best model (Table 7) are significant at the PC.05 level. Adjusted value is high and the root MSE is fairly ATWL is similar to the best models form classes. Indeed, the same prediction collection equation. This low. The best model for mountain big sagebrush in variables, MJ, AC, and Cl are in simplifies matters in that the of relatively simple measurements will produce models that work well for ATVL, ATVH, and ATWL. Table 7. Group I models for low use Wyoming big sagebrush (ATWL). .88 R2 .90 ROOT MSE .24 In (F)=1. 4 4 + . 0 1 6 (MJ)+ . 0 1 7 (AC) .85 .84 .86 .86 .27 .27 I Variable models In (F)=1.43+.027 (MJ) In (F)=I.7 3 + . 0 3 8 (AC) .81 .78 .82 .78 .30 .32 Model with AS included In (F) = .41+2.76(AS)+.041. (MJ) + .015(AC)-.0002 (Cl) .92 .93 .18 • Best model In (F) = .322+.048 (MJ)+ .017(AC)-.0003 (Cl) 2 Variable models I n (F) = .270+.060 (MJ) -.0003 (Cl) ADJ R2 Equation abbreviations; F-Forage (g), MJ-Major axis (cm), HT-Height (cm), AC-Average cover (cm), CD-Crown depth(cm), Cl-Circular areal (cm2), AS-Average seedhead weight (g). Root MSE=MSEv2. 36 This 3 variable "best, model" shows some improvement over the model of Dean et al. (1981) for Wyoming big sagebrush. The 4 variable model they reported =0.86. For included this study, crown denseness a 3 variable model and resulted has R2= O .90, in an R2 and when AS is added to the best model in Table 9, the R2=O.93. The 2 variable models are very close in terms of reliability, and the measure of MJ with very functional a subsequent calculation model. The additional measure for Cl results in a of AC does not seem necessary as no improvement in R2 is noted for a 2 variable model. One variable models explain much of the variation for ATWL. MJ alone accounts for 81%, and AC accounts for 78%. Rittenhouse and Sneva (1977) accounted for 88% of the photosynthetic biomass of Wyoming big sagebrush with techniques the variable, log (MJ). and the transformations Even though the sampling are different, these results seem to be in close agreement. The the addition of the variable prediction significant of AS results in forage production some improvement in for ATWL. All variables are at P<.05. This equation is very similar to the prediction equation for ATVL with AS included, probably because of similar growth forms for variables are quite these 2 subspecies in low use are used in each prediction different so it form classes. The same equation, but the coefficients is necessary to identify subspecies in order to select the appropriate equation. plants to 37 High Use Wyoming Big Sagebrush (ATWH) The highest adjusted R2 model for ATWH (Table variable CD which is not significant excluded from the R2, or root MSB. MJ, AC, and variable any of model, there The best model HT. These the at P<.05. When this variable is is no reduction for ATWH (Table 3 variables 3) includes are in adjusted R2, 8) has 3 variables, significant at PC.01. The HT is an important variable for ATWH, but did not enter into the best combinations models for the investigated. previous 3■ taxa and This variable is included form class in both of the highest adjusted R2 models with 2 variables along with AC and M J . Table 8. Group I models for high use Wyoming big sagebrush (ATWHj . In (F) = .669+.008 (MJ)+ .029 (AC)+ .028 (HT) .84 R2 CO O') Best model ADJ R2 ROOT MSE .26 ln(F)=.716+.034(HT)+.036(AC) In (F) = .940+.035 (HT)+ .014(MJ) .82 .83 .28 .73 .75 .34 .61 .61 .53 .62 .62 .55 .41 .41 .45 .87 CO 2 Variable models .24 I Variable models In (F)=I.18+.051(HT) In (F)=1.41+.054(AC) In (F)=1.64+.024 (MJ) Model with AS included In (F) = .68+.86 (AS)+ .00.9(MJ) + .026 (AC)+.043(HT) Equation abbreviations; F-Forage (g), MJ-Major axis (cm), HT-Height (cm), AC-Average cover (cm), CD-Crown depth(cm), Cl-Circular areal (cm2), AS-Average seedhead weight (g). Root MSE=MSEv2. 38 The differences between the best model, with 3 variables, and the 2 variable model production for that includes HT high use Wyoming and AC are very big sagebrush small. So forage can be reliably and easily determined by a 2 variable model that includes AC and HT. Height alone accounts for 62% of the variation in forage for ATWH as does AC. The variable class as compared MJ accounts to 82% for for 55% for the the low use form high use form class of the same subspecies. The addition of to AS improves the model from adjusted R2 =0.89. This improvement sampling time may not justify the adjusted R2 = is small, 0.84 so the increased measure of this variable for ATWH. Combining AS with other single variables does not improve the adjusted R2 values from the values for 2 variable models presented in Table 8. Low Use Basin Big Sagebrush •(ATTL) This adjusted taxon and R2 in all form class 3 variable difference in overall sagebrush. Group combination groups. growth form I variables This resulted in the lowest is probably due to from the other subspecies provided the highest a of big adjusted R2 values of the 3 variable groups investigated (Table 3). Neither class CD in the combination significant the HT or 3) is significant for this taxa at P<.05 and form (both are at PC.10). If these variables are dropped from the model, 2 variable model model. (Table Group I model in Table 9 is the result and becomes the best 39 This 2 essentially variable equal model to the has highest adjusted R2= O .77 adjusted which R2 model. The is 2 variables in this model also appear as the best single variable models for ATTL. The variable AC accounts for 69% of the variation by itself, and MJ alone accounts for 65%. Table 9. Group I models for low' use basin big sagebrush (ATTL) .■ , Best model ADJ R2 In (F)=2.37+.008 (MJ)+ .020 (AC) R2 ROOT MSE .77 .78 .37 .69 .65 .70 .66 .42 .45 .89 .90 .25 I Variable models In(F)=2.54+.032(AC) In (F)=2.72+.016(MJ) Model with AS included In (F)=I.95+1.00 (AS) + .008 (MJ)+/023(AC) Equation abbreviations; F-Forage (g), MJ-Major axis (cm), HT-Height (cm), AC-Average cover (cm), CD-Crown depth(cm), Cl-Circular areal (cm2), AS-Average seedhead weight (g) . Root MSE=MSEiy2. The addition of AS to the 2 variable model results in a dramatic improvement increase in both in field R2 values and for collection of adjusted time justified in the case of ATTL. root MSE AS data values. therefore The is 40 High Use Basin Big Sagebrush (ATTH) The highest including should adjusted R2 model MJ, AC, HT, and Cl. The There are no changes ATTH has 4 variables variable Cl is not significant and be omitted. This results in Table ,12. for the 3 variable model presented in in adjusted R2, R2, or root MSE for this 3 variable model and all variables are significant at PC.05. or The 2 variable models in Table 12 MJ. The adjusted R2, R2, and both include AC and either HT root MSE values are identical for these 2 models, All variables are significant at PC. 01. Average cover adjusted R2=O.84. alone results The variable in a very MJ alone reliable model accounts for with an 59% of the variation for ATTH. Table 10. Group I models for high use basin big sagebrush (ATTH). Best model In (F) =2.18+, 004 (MJ)+ .027 (AC)+ .004 (HT) ADJ R2 R2 ROOT MSE .88 .89 . .21 .86 .86 .87 .87 .22 .22 .84 .59 .84 .60 .24 .38 2 Variable models In (F)=2.24+.032 (AC) + .005 (HT) In (F)=2.41+.029(AC) + .005 (MJ) I Variable models In (F)=2.52+.035 (AC) In (F)=2.77+.016(MJ) Equation abbreviations; F-Forage (g), MJ-Major axis (cm), HT-Height (cm), AC-Average cover (cm), CD-Crown depth (cm), Cl-Circular areal (cm2), Root MSE=MSEiz2. 41 SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS Difficulties subspecific in level identifying are well the known big sagebrushes (Winward to and Tisdale the 1977) . Nevertheless, differentiation of big sagebrush subspecies is important in analyzing identifying 1987), site potential, site animal preferences condition (Welch et al. and predicting treatment response. (Dean et al. 1981), 1981, Personius et al. Even though the prediction equations for low use Wyoming big sagebrush and low use mountain big sagebrush use the same variables, the y-intercept and the associated coefficients the in each equation are subspecific level separate regression quite different. Identification to is necessary equations in to predict forage production as this study have proven to greatly increase precision. Heavy growth while previous use can form (Patton range treatment greatly site be considered a and Hall 1966). did not affect (shredding) did. They from consistent those of with this that affects Hughes et al. (1987) found that prediction equations, mechanical concluded modify plant form will probably different treatment undisturbed that treatments- which require regression equations vegetation. premise as separate Our findings prediction are equations were developed for each form class with a consequent increase in precision. The forage relationship studied is between production and the independent big sagebrush annual winter variables (big sagebrush parameters). It is expressed with a natural logarithmic transformation of the dependent variable in the regression equation for the 6 42 combinations of transformation subspecies and form classes studied. This was necessary to stabilize nonconstant variance of the error term as exhibited in the initial scatter plots of residual error vs predicted values. The the sampling strict may strategy nonconstant variance employed: is a direct result of stratified random sampling technique can random sampling. If a be applied, this transformation be avoided as the error terms would also be randomly distributed. But a stratified sample is often desirable when there are risks that a random sample interest with may not satisfactorily because of time determination sagebrush of represent the population or financial constraints. annual winter forage of This is the case production for big taxa as sampling time is limited to the rather short period between ephemeral leaf drop and winter. Other researchers have developed log-log equations for predicting various components of big sagebrush (Rittenhouse and Sneva 1977, Deanet and determined specified biomass the al. 1981, that systematic nonlinear model Hughes et al, 1987). bias from log-log is an important Tausch (1989) transformations with a factor to consider in estimation. In this study, linear regression was justified by fact that nonlinear relationships were not indicated in the scatter plots of dependent versus independent variables. Colinearity (MJ)", "minor legitimately different analysis axis (MN)", used indicated and "elliptical in the same final equations that the variables equation. area (E)" could This resulted than those reported "major axis not be in somewhat by other researchers. Rittenhouse and Sneva (1977) combined these variables in some of their 43 higher and Ffmodels. Dean et minimum diameters reported. These al. (1981) also together in studies do not used measures of maximum the best fit equations mention colinearity that they tests. If colinearities among maximum diameter, minimum diameter, and elliptical areas were not indicated for their data, then it would seem that the overall shape of big sagebrush is more variable from site to site than previously determine thought. A test for colinearity is imperative then to the appropriateness of including different variables in the same regression equation. Three based on the measure crown All R2 variable groups were considered in this study. Group I was measure of of the the major minor axis axis, group and group 3 was area, and included various measures 2 was based based on the on the elliptical of shrub and crown volume. 3 variable groups yield very similar results in terms of adjusted values consuming (Tables 3’ and 4). Group I variables were less time to collect in the field and were used to determine the best models. The resulting 0.78 for for low use high average models have adjusted basin big sagebrush use mountain (Table 9) big sagebrush cover (AC), crown depth (CD), R2 values that range from to adjusted R2=O.90 (Table 6). Major axis (MJ), height (HT) and circular areal (Cl), were the most useful shrub characteristics in forage prediction. These the R2 4), are well defined and easily measured variables. The addition of variable values "average seedhead of some subspecies weight (AS)" and form but not all. This variable is class improved the adjusted combinations (Table more time consuming to collect but 44 may be justified classes where "Average values in predicting sizeable seedhead enough increases in (AS)" may not weight to forage production justify for 'low use form adjusted R2 values improve the increased field occur. the adjusted time R2 for forage relationship when prediction of high use plants. Uresk et predicting the fractions (1977) al. of (in big and the relationships weight (AS)" forage production stalks (R2=O.52). Jacobson for big sagebrush poorest of flowering sagebrush volume included found phytomass Murray satisfactory (1977) plants. alone accounts Mack 1982) between were with other independent (1971) to and unable In the low use form seedhead variation in classes. variables, "average develop and canopy this study, "average 10% of the other Murray to inflorescence weight for less than in each of compared But when seedhead weight (AS)" becomes a useful measurement for predicting annual winter forage production. Including this variable increases precision by 2 % for low use mountain sagebrush big sagebrush (Table 7),and (Table 5), 4 % for low use 12 % for low use basin Wyoming big big sagebrush (Table 9) . In most cases, combining "major axis (MJ)" and "average cover (AC)" resulted in reliable and accurate prediction equations. Adjusted R2 9), values range from to 0.86 for Wyoming 0.77 for low use basin high use basin big sagebrush big sagebrush (Table (Table 10). High use big sagebrush was the exception. For this subspecies and form 45 class combination, R2 value (0.82) the 2 variable includes height model with the highest (HT) and average adjusted cover (AC) (Table 8) . Rittenhouse and Sneva (1977) noted good results in estimating big sagebrush production with the of crown width longest measure study also found "forage (F)"and I variable. a strong the for Wyoming big relationship "major axis low use of big sagebrush. Adjusted R2 values ranged adjusted for =0.48 for values big sagebrush (Table high use mountain for prediction value of big equations 7) to a low sagebrush was big of forage for other subspecies a high variable Wyoming predictor from this R2=O.81) between (Table Wyoming However, for for sagebrush. This (adjusted (MJ)" R2=O.88 sagebrush use 7). They reported not a reliable R2= O .81 value of (Table 6). with this single low adjusted R2 Adjusted variable R2 were consistently low for plants in the high use form classes (Tables 6, 8, 10) . Average cover (AC) was also considered in a single variable model and found to variable R2 is well values (Table be reliable for 8) range all subspecies defined, consistent from to adjusted for R2=O.84 classes.This and easy to collect. high use Wyoming for high big sagebrush big between shrub cover and browse mass would allow a wildlife manager to suggests to photographs to estimate that a strong sagebrush 10). aerial (1986) speculated use basin Adjusted (Table use Weaver 0.61 and form available relationship browse. Our study that line intercept canopy cover (Canfield 1941) may be used estimate annual winter forage production for big sagebrush 46 subspecies develop from aerial photographs. Further study is required to a technique to apply these findings ■. This may involve reading intercepts directly from a photograph. It is important to remember that useful approximations. may be difficult if not based data on variables predict are merely The true relationships and important variables impossible to identify. that can be measured examined in this study variables regression models Models must then be easily and accurately. The have shown that several easily measured can be used in different regression equations to accurately annual winter forage production for 3 sagebrush in both low and high use form classes. subspecies of big 47 REFERENCES CITED 48 REFERENCES CITED Andrew, M. H., I. R. Noble and R. T . Lange. 1979. method for estimating the weight of forage Rangel. J. 1:225-231. Attiwell, E . M. 1962. from measurements 8:132-141. A non-destructive on shrubs. Aust. Estimating branch dry weight and leaf area of branch girth in Eucalyptus. Forest Sci. Baskerville, G. L . 1965. 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APPENDICES 56 APPENDIX A SIMPLE STATISTICS FOR EACH SITE 57 Table 11. Simple statistics for low use mountain big sagebrush (ATVL). Variable MJ MN HT AC CD HT2 E CV SV Cl C2 AS F Ln(F) Minimum Maximum Range 160.020 182.880 • 121.920 132.08.0 55.880 86.360 97.790 112.395 14.817 26.670 6529.019 7458.050 929 .03 0 ' 18788.757 18971.172 182.415 505961.167 503181.161 2780.006 1608697.045 1614257.058 5560.013 25857.343 410.434 26267.777 13620.329 13701.402 81.073 1.816 0.124 1.940 • 358.090 364.090 6.000 4.106 5.897 1.792 22.860 10.160 30.480 14.605 11.853 Variable Variance Std Dev MJ MN HT AC CD HT2 E CV SV Cl C2 AS F Ln(F) 1810.185 950.107 42.546 30.824 17.097 23.273 3.416 2057.429 4625.759 106894.923 387439.661 6719.053 3259.448 0.373 78.006 1.013 292.295 541.626 11.672 4233013.843 21397644.711 11426524665 150109490664 45145666.906 10623998.372 0.139 6084.985 1.025 Mean 86.868 54.568 62.907 42.037 17.685 4239.884 4658.806 91567.065 344278.590 7300.996 3059.971 0.375 71.197 3.799 Std Error 7.768 5.628 3.121 4.249 0.624 375.633 844.544 19516.254 70736.481 1226.726 595.091 0.068 14.242 0.185 Variable abbreviations; F-Forage(g), MJ-Major axis(cm), MN-Minor axis (cm), HT-Height (cm), AC-Average cover (cm), CD-Grown depth (cm), Cl-Circular areal(cm2), C2-Circular area2 (cm2), SV-Shrub vol. (cm3), AS-Average seedhead weight(g), E-Elliptical area (cm2), CV-Crown volume (cm3). N=30. 58 Table 12. Simple statistics for high use mountain big sagebrush (ATVH). Variable MJ MN HT AC CD E CV SV Cl C2 AS F Ln(F) Variable Minimum 21.590 12.700 25.400 15.875 9.525 215.351 2826.125 7110.896 366.097 126.677 0.000 8.250 2.110 Variance MJ 803.714 MN 421.238 HT 120.877 AC 209.513 CD 9.568 E 5358858.849 CV 1151734906.400 SV 14880940062.000 12598287.242 Cl 3293926.227 C2 0.023 AS 981.887 F Ln(F) 0.569 Maximum 135.890 104.140 66.040 68.898 20.743 11114.655 128178.459 451699.561 14503.269 8517.773 0.660 123.280 4.814 Std Dev 28.350 20.524 10.994 14.475 3.093 2314.921 33937.220 121987.459 3549.407 1814.918 0.152 31.335 0.754 Range 114.300 91.440 40.640 53.023 11.218 10899.303 125352.334 444588.665 14137.172 8391.095 0.660 115.030 2.704 Mean 65.024 41.995 42.460 38.989 14.217 2481.648 36267.057 115423.196 3930.961 1704.906 0.193 44.748 3.550 Std Error 5.176 3.747 2.007 2.643 0.565 422.645 6196.060 22271.761 648.030 331.357 0.028 5.721 0.138 Variable abbreviations; F-Forage(g), MJ-Major axis(cm), MN-Minor axis (cm) f HT-Height (cm), AC-Average cover (cm), CD-Crown depth (cm) , Cl-Circular areal(cm2), C2-Circular area2 (cm2 ) , SV-Shrub vol. (cm3), AS-Average seedhead weight(g), E-Elliptical area (cm2), CV-Crown volume (cm3) . N=30. 59 Table 13. Simple statistics for low use Wyoming big sagebrush (ATWL). Variable MJ MN HT AC CD E CV SV Cl C2 AS F Ln(F) Variable Minimum 35.560 25.400 20.320 18.415 9.652 851.271 8803.354 18533.376 993.149 506.709 0.000 6.000 1.792 Variance MJ 543.545 421.534 MN HT 180.350 260.953 AC 13.194 CD 5141431.812 E CV 1511613175.300 SV 20864962072.000 8185633.829 Cl C2 3838200.390 0.003 AS 465.973 F 0.472 Ln(F) Maximum 127.000 101.600 73.660 79.692 24.130 10134.173 147294.579 617779.203 12667.717 8107.339 0.231 84.600 4.438 Std Dev 23.314 20.531 13.429 16.154 3.632 ' 2267.473 38879.470 144447.091 2861.055 1959.133 0.051 21.586 0.687 Range 91.440 76.200 53.340 61.277 14.478 9282.903 138491.225 599245.827 11674.568 7600.630 0.231 78.600 2.646 Mean 72.856 54.102 50.927 43.487 15.560 3410.234 54774.570 187751.144 4581.533 2618.924 0.085 35.685 3.372 Std Error 4.257 3.748 2.452 2.949 0.663 413.982 7098.388 26372.310 522.355 357.687 0.009 3.941 0.125 Variable abbreviations; F-Forage(g), MJ-Major axis(cm), MN-Minor axis (cm), HT-Height (cm), AC-Average cover (cm), CD-Grown depth (cm), • Cl-Circular- areal(cm2), C2-Circular area2 (cm2), SV-Shrub vol. (cm3), AS-Average seedhead weight(g), E-Elliptical area (cm2), CV-Crown volume (cm3). N=30. 60 Table 14. Simple statistics for high use Wyoming big sagebrush (ATWH). Variable MJ MN HT AC CD E CV SV Cl C2 AS F Ln(F) Variable Minimum 22.860 15.240 15.240 13.335 3.810 334.428 1853.338 5096.678 410.434 182.415 0.000 3.550 1.267 Variance 423.017 MJ MN 188.179 103.441 HT 92.855 AC 4.566 CD 1477730.225 E 99284818.814 CV SV 3712485688.400 3781880.513 Cl 805581.344 C2 0.018 AS 210.873 F ■ 0.430 Ln(F) Maximum 93.980 66.040 55.880 56.515 15.240 4611.049 44910.342 210817.153 6936.842 3425.351 . 0.600 60.540 4.103 Std Dev 20.567 13.718 10.171 9.636 2.137 1215.619 9964.177 60930.171 1944.706 897.542 0.133 14.521 0.656 Range 71.120 50.800 40.640 43.180 11.430 4276.621 43057.004 205720.475 6526.408 3242.935 0.600 56.990 2.836 Mean 59.605 38.777 36.745 30.586 7.382 1978.866 14786.432 80164.788 3111.529 1323.861 0.129 25.335 3.050 Std Error 3.755 2.505 . 1.857 1.759 0.390 221.941 1819.201 .11124.276 355.053 163.868 0.024 2.651 0.120 Variable abbreviations; F-Forage(g), MJ-Major axis(cm), MN-Minor axis • (cm), HT-Height (cm), AC-Average cover (cm), CD-Grown depth (cm), Cl-Circular areal (cm2), C2-Circular area2 (cm2),; SV-Shrub vol. (cm3), AS-Average seedhead weight (g)., E-Elliptical . -area (cm2), CV-Crown volume (cm3). N=30. 61 Table 15. Simple statistics for low use basin big sagebrush (ATTL). Variable MJ MN HT AC CD E CV SV Cl C2 AS F Ln(F) Variable MJ MN HT AC CD E CV SV Cl C2 AS F Ln(F) Minimum Maximum 205.740 27.940 25.400 149.860 139.700 43.180 95.885 23.495 35.560 11.853 24215.607 557.380 599699.509 6606.805 3013874.454 24067.648 613.117 33245.155 17638.529 506.709 1.180 0.000 . 290.460 14.100 5.671 2.646 Variance 1485.613 878.612 514.563 396.016 20.095 26130377.940 15661259659 427007895455 50500695.728 15349985.738 0.072 5459.109 0.577 Std Dev 38.544 29.641 22.684 19.900 4.483 5111.788 125144.955 653458.411 7106.384 3917.906 0.269 73.886 0.760 Range 177.800 124.460 96.520 72.390 23.707 23658.228 593092.703 2989806.806 32632.038 17131.820 1.180 276.360 3.025 Mean 102.574 70.019 • 93.895 56.780 22.217 6391.708 146200.804 672828.693 9391.381 4517.646 0.320 101.563 4.359 . Std Error 7.037 5.412 4.142 3.633 0.818 933.281 22848.238 119304.637 1297.442 715.308 0.049 13.490 0.139 Variable abbreviations; F-Forage(g), MJ-Major axis(cm), MN-Minor axis (cm), HT-Height (cm), AC-Average cover (cm), CD-Crown depth (cm), Cl-Circular areal (cm2), C2-Circular area2 (cm2), SV-Shrub vol. (cm3), AS-Average seedhead weight(g), E-Elliptical area (cm2), CV-Crown volume (cm3). N=30. 62 Table 16. Simple statistics for high use basin big sagebrush (ATTH). Variable Minimum Maximum MJ MN HT AC CD E CV SV Cl C2 AS F Ln(F) 25.400 20.320 .45:720 19.050 405.367 10982.741 26770.432 506.709 324.294 0.000 19.180 2.954 144.780 96.520 129.540 84.455 27.093 9964.426 245865.091 1151588.699 16462.964 7316.873 0.890 191.820 5.257 Variable Variance Std Dev 860.836 514.941 468.462 239.161 34.654 7514557.734 2551531520.8 87862201339 15903121.177 4441533.149 0.035 1723.393 0.350 29.340 MJ MN HT AC CD E CV SV Cl C2 AS F Ln(F) 7.239 22.692 21.644 15.465 5.887 2741.269 50512.687 296415.589 3987.872 2107.495 0.188 41.514 0.591 Range Mean 119.380 76.200 83.820 65.405 19.854 9559.059 84.159 53.763 234882.350 1124818.267 15956.256 6992.580 0.890 172.640 2.303 79.968 44.429 16.294 3985.348 61383.257 343939.026 6216.302 2661.149 0.147 69.943 4.082 Std Error 5.357 4.143 3.952 2.823 1.075 500.485 9222.313 54117.835 728.082 ' 384.774 0.034 7.579 0.108 Variable abbreviations; F-Forage(g), MJ-Major axis(cm), MN-Minor axis (cm), HT-Height (cm), AC-Average cover (cm), CD-Grown depth (cm), Cl-Circular areal (cm2), C2-Circular area2 (cm2), SV-Shrub vol. (cm3), AS-Average seedhead weight(g), E-Elliptical area (cm2), CV-Crown volume (cm3). N=30. APPENDIX B SCATTER DIAGRAMS FOR EACH TAXON 64 E vs MN2 MJ vs MN 200 20000 + + A A A A MJ A AB BBA AA B B AAA A B 100 + A D A A • 10000 + A ACA A I' A I BAA A I BH 0 +DA -[_---------- 1 -0 10000 I 0 + — + 150 -+- 0 50 100 MN2 MN E vs (MJ X MN) E vs MJ2 20000 20000 + B E 10000 + I A AACA I A I CB I CBBBA 0 +BC —I ---------- 1 ---------- h 0 20000 40000 MJ2 ---- b 20000 + I I A A 10000 + A I EA I A I DA I CEB 0 +CB — I- - - - - - 1- - - - - - 1- - - - - - 1— 0 10000 20000 30000 MJ x MN Variable abbreviations: MJ-Major axis (cm), MN-Minor axis (cm), E:Elliptical area (cm2). For data points: A=I, B=2, C=3, etc. N=30. Figure 3. Scatter diagrams for low use mountain big sagebrush (ATVL) , showing linear relationships among variables as indicated by colinearity analysis. 65 E vs MN2 MJ vs MN E MJ E I 150 + 15000 + 100 + A A A I AA A I ABB B A 50 + BA A A I A CBA I A 0 + - + --— rl100 0 SO 10000 + I I A A 5000 + A A I B AB I GFAB 0 +BB—I ------1 ------- 1 ------ 1— — + 150 0 5000 10000 15000 MN MN2 E vs MJ2 E vs (MJ x MN) I E I 15000 + 15000 + 10000 + 10000 + I I A A 5000 + A A I AAAA A I ADDDBA 0 + CA —I ---------- 1 ---------- h 0 10000 20000 MJ2 5000 + AA I ACA I IDC 0 +AC — (------ 1------- 1 ------ h- 0 5000 10000 15000 (MJ x MN) Variable abbreviations: MJ-Major axis (cm), MN-Minor axis (cm), E Elliptical area (cm2), For data points: A=I, B=2, C=3, etc. N=30. Figure 4. Scatter diagrams for high use mountain big sagebrush (ATVH) showing linear relationships among variables as indicated by colinearity analysis. 66 E vs MN2 MJ VS MN I MJ A 10000 + 150 +■ I E A I 100 + I • I 50' + I I A A A BA AA AD B CA ADAB B AA B I 0 + + ‘----- +--- I I -+------ -+ 150 100 I ■ A A 5000 + I CA I ACB I CC I EB 0 + - - - - j•i— +------ +10000 15000 5000 ,MN2 MN E vs (MJ x MN) E vs MJ2 A 10000 + 10000 + A E I I A A B A . 5000 + I A BB I . AD A I C AAA I AEA 0 + —I ---------- 1---------- h 0 10000 20000 MJ2 I BA 5000 + A I CA I BD ' I BD I G ' 0 + — I- - - - - 1- - - - - - h - - - - - H — 0 5000 10000 15000 (MJ x MN) Variable abbreviations: MJ-Major axis (cm), MN-Minor axis (cm), E Elliptical area (cm2), For data points: A=I, B=2, C=3, etc. N=30. Figure 5. Scatter diagrams for low use Wyoming big sagebrush (ATWL) showing linear relationships among variables as indicated by colinearity analysis. 67 E vs MN2 MJ vs MN MJ I 100 + 6000 + I I I I A A A A AAA I B ''A I C A A 2000 + BCAA I I BD B 0 + -+----- -+— -+— 0 2000 4000 4000 + LO CM A A B 75 + AA I A A I A AA 50 + C C I A A I + ■ A A -+— ---- +-----O 25 50 75 /MN2 MN E vs (MJ x MN) E vs MJ2 E E I 6000 I 6000 + 6000 + I I I A A ) AA A I AA A I . A A A A A 2000 + ■ I BAB A A I ABD A 0 + J---- +0 5000 10000 4000 + MJ2 4000 + A A , I BB I AAA 2000 + AD I C D I AACC • 0 + —I ------1 ------- H------ 1 — 0 2000 4000 6000 (MJ x MN) Variable abbreviations: MJ-Major axis (cm), MN-Minor axis (cm), E Elliptical area (cm2), For data points: A=I, B=2, C=3, etc. N=3.0. Figure 6. Scatter diagrams for high use Wyoming big sagebrush (ATWH) showing linear relationships among variables as indicated by colinearity analysis. 68 E vs MN2 MJ vs MN 200 + I MJ E I I 30000 + I I A A AAAA A A A AA BA C CB BAA I 100 + I 20000 I A + -+------ +----- +------- + ■ 0 50 100 150 I A AAB 10000 + AA I A BAA ■ I GFC 0 +A -H------ 1*—----- 1 ------ 1 — 0 10000 20000 30000 MN2 MN E vs (MJ x MN) E vs MJ2 E A + ' I 30000 ,+ • 30000 + 20000 20000 + + I I I ABA A 10000 + AA I BAB I CGE A 0 +A — I- - - - - - 1- - - - - - 1- - - - - - 1— 0 20000 MJ2 40000 60000 I BBA 10000 + AA I CAA I AJE ■ 0 +A -H-------- .— I:------ -----h 0 20000 40000 (MJ x MN) Variable abbreviations: MJ-Major axis (cm), MN-Minor axis (cm), E Elliptical area (cm2), For data points: A=I, B=2, C=3, etc. N=30. Figure 7. Scatter diagrams for low use basin big sagebrush (ATTL) showing linear relationships among variables as indicated by colinearity analysis. 69 E vs MN2 MJ vs MN 10000 + 150 + AA MJ 100 + A A AAA 50 + A AA A A CAAA B A AAA A A A BA B BCAA AAA ' CAA + A -— +— -+ 5000 0 5000 + -- + 100 — +50 0 A A 0 + -+ - E vs (MJ x MN) E vs MJ2 I 5000 + 0 +A 0 ---- + 10000 MN2 MN A 10000 + A A AB 10000 + B BA AA A A A A 5000 + I ACA I AF I AB I AD 0 + A A CA A ADAA AAA -- 1 ------ 1 ------ 1 — 10000 20000 30000 MJ2 - + -------- + — 0 5000 -- 1 ------ 1— 10000 15000 (MJ x MN) Variable abbreviations: MJ-Major axis (cm), MN-Minor axis (cm), E Elliptical area (cm2), For data points: A=I, B=2, C=3, etc. N=30. Figure 8. Scatter diagrams for high use basin big sagebrush (ATTH) showing linear relationships among variables as indicated by colinearity analysis. APPENDIX C PLANT SPECIES ON THE STUDY AREA 71 Table 17. Plant species identified on the Gardiner study area1. Graminoids Agropyron cristatum * A. smithii * A. spicatum * A. subsecundum * A. trachycaulum * Agrdstis exarata * A. stolonifera * Bouteloua gracilis * Bromus anomalus B . inermis * B . japonicus * B . marginatus * B . tectorum * Calamagrostis canadensis C. rubescens * Carex festivella C. filifolia * C. geyeri * Danthonia intermedia * Distichlis stricta * Elymus cinereus * Festuca idahoensis * Hordeum jubatum * Juncus balticus *' Koeleria pyramidata * Loliuih perenne Melica spectabilis * Oryzopsis hymenoides * Phleum pratense * Poa ampIa P . cusickii P . fendleriana P . junctifolia P . pratensis * P . sandbergii * Sitanion hystrix * Stipa columbiana * S . comata'* Trisetum spicatum * Forbs, Ferns, Mosses, Vines, and Cactus ■ Achillia millifolium * Actaea rubra Agroseris glauca * Allium brevistylum A. textile * Antennaria dimorpha A. rosea * A. umbrinella Arabis holboellii .Arenaria congesta * Arnica cordifolia * Artemisia dracunculus Aster canescens * A. conspicuus A. scopulorum Astragalus cibarius A. gilviflorus A. miser A. purshii Balsamorhiza sagittata * Campanula uniflora Castelleja angustifolia' Cerastium arvense * Cirsium arvense * C. foliosum Clematis columbiana C. hirsutissima Collinsia parviflora Camandra pallida Crepis acuminata Delphinium bicolor * D . occidentals * Dodecatheon conjugans Draba paysonii Epilobium angustifolium Equisetum arvense * Erigeron compositus E . corymbosus E . glabellus E . gracilis 'E . ochroleucus E. pumilus 72 Table 17. (Continued). Eriogonum heracleoides * E . ovalifolium E . umbellatum Erysimum asperum Fragaria yesca F . virginiana Frasera speciosa Frittilaria atropurpurea F . pudica Geranium richardsonii * G. viscosissium * Geum triflorum * Grindelia squarrosa * Haplopappus acaulis Helanthella uniflora Heracleum lanatum Heterotheca villosa * Hieracium cynoglossoides Lathyrus bijugatus Lesquerella alpina Lewisia rediviva Linaria dalmatica * Linium lewisii Lithospermin incisum L . ruderale Lomatium macrocarpum L. triternatum Lupinus sericeus * Medicago sativa * Meliotus officinalis Mentha arvensis * Mentzelia laevicaulis Mertensia ciliata Monotropa hypopithys Myosotis alpestris Oenothera oaespitosa Opuntia polycantha * Oxytropis sericea * Paronchia sessiliflora Penstemon cyaneus Phacelia sericea Phlox oaespitosa * P . hoodii * Plantago patagonica * Polygonum bistoriodes Potentillia glandulosa P . gracillis Peteridium aquilinum Sedum stenopetalum * Selagimella densa * Senecio canus S . serra Sisymbrium altissium Smilacina racemosa S . stellata Solidago canadensis * Sphaeralcea coccinea * Taraxacon officinale * Thalictrum occidentale Townsendia parryi Tragopogon dubius Trifolium haydenii Viola adunca V. purpurea Zigadenus paniculatus * 73 Table 17. (Continued). Shrubs, Half-Shrubs, and Trees Abies lasiocarpa * Acer glabrum * Alnus tenuifolia * Amelanchier alnifolia * Arctostaphylos uva-ursi * Artemisia frigida * A. nova * A. tridentatasubsp. tridentata * A. tridentatasubsp. vaseyana * A. tridentatasubsp. wyomingensis * Berberis repens * Betula occidentalis * Ceanothus velutinus * Ceratoides lanata * Chrysothamnus nauseosus * C. viscidiflorus * Cornus stolonifera * Grayia spinosa * Juniperus horizontalis * J. scopulorum * Leptodactylon pungens * Physocarpus malvaceus * Picea englmannii * Pinus albicus 1 Plants identified by McNeal (1984). * Plants observed in 1989. I P. contorta * P . flexilis * Populus angustifolia * P . tremulpides * Prunus virginiana * Pseudotsuga menziesii * Rhus trilobata * Ribes cereum * R. setosum * R. viscossissimum * Rosa woodsii * Rubus idaeus R. parviflorus Salix spp. * Sambucus melanocarpa * Sarcobatus vermiculatus* Shepherdia canadensis Symphoricarpos aIbus * S . occidentalis * Tetradymia canescens * Vaccinium membranaceum V. scoparium Xanthocephalum sarothrae