Mitigating Climate Impacts from Transportation:
Opportunities and Challenges
International Climate Policy after Copenhagen
University of Warwick
24 February 2010
Andreas Schäfer
University of Cambridge
as601@cam.ac.uk
A Century of Growth
9
600
500
8
All other
Countries
United States
400
Other
industrialized
countries
7
300
200
Aircraft revenue passenger-km, billion
700
Use of petroleum products, billion bbl
World LDV fleet, million vehicles
800
6
U.S.
100
5
0
1900
1920
1940
1960
1980
2000
4,500
4,000
3,500
All other
Countries
3,000
Electricity
generation
2,500
Other
industrialized
countries
2,000
Industry
1,500
1,000
2020
Residential
Commercial
500
0
1900
1920
1940
1960
U.S.
2000
1980
4
3
Transport
2
1
0
1900
1920
1940
1960
1980
2000
2020
2020
Oil Dependence and related Concerns
• Climate Change
– Burning 1 kg of oil forms
nearly 3.2 kg of CO2
Imports (% Consumption)
– Concentration of global
reserves in Middle
Eastern economies
– Oil price volatility, “oil
weapon”, use of oil
revenues, etc.
Oil Imports
90
80
EU-22
70
60
50
US
40
30
20
10
0
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
120
Crude Oil Price
100
$(2007)/bbl
• Oil products represent
94% of all transp. fuels
• Oil import dependence
100
80
60
40
20
0
1860
1880
1900
1920
1940
1960
1980
2000
2020
Data source:
BP Statistical Review of World Energy June 2008
Rising Atmospheric CO2 Concentration
Atmospheric CO2 concentration, ppm
420
Monthly mean atmospheric CO2 concentration
measured at Mauna Loa Observatory, Hawaii
400
380
360
340
320
300
Data source:
Tans P., NOAA/ESRL (www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/)
280
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
Stern Review (2006)
Structural Change in the Energy System
Share in Final Energy, %
Share in Final Energy, %
(Time series data from 1971 – 1998)
100
90
Residential
Agriculture
80
70
60
50
Industrialized Regions:
North America
Pacific OECD
Western Europe
40
30
Reforming Economies:
Eastern Europe
Former Soviet Union
20
10
0
100
90
Industry
Services
80
70
60
50
40
Developing Regions:
Centrally Planned Asia
Latin Ameria
Middle East & North Africa
Other Pacific Asia
South Asia
Sub-Saharan Africa
Transportation
30
20
10
0
Other Services
0
5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,00035,000
GDP/cap, US$(2000)
0
5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,00035,000
GDP/cap, US$(2000)
GHG Emissions: Identity
GGE =
GGE
E A
E
PKT
PKT
Each RHS-factor tends to increase!
Determinants of Travel Demand: TTB
Average daily travel time, h/cap
4.0
Selected Data Points:
1 Tanzania Villages (1986)
2 Ghana Villages (1988)
3 Palestine (1999/2000)
4 Romania (1991)
5 Warsaw (1993)
6 Sao Paulo (2002)
7 South Africa (2001)
3.5
3.0
2.5
8 South Korea (1995)
9 Germany (1982)
10 Singapore (1991)
11 Spain (2002/03)
12 Paris (1991)
13 Tokyo (1990)
14 Finland (2000)
15 Japan (2001)
16 France (2000)
17 Paris (2001)
18 Switzerland (1989)
19 Great Britain (2004)
20 Norway (2000)
21 United States (2001)
2.0
1.5
5
1 2
1.0
4
10
6
7
8
9
12
17
15
21
18
11 13
20
14
3
16
19
Villages
Cities
Countries
0.5
0
0
5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000
GDP/cap, $
Travel Time Budget: Stability
Time-use surveys, 1965/66 and early 2000s
Time dedicated to major activities,
h/cap/d
10
9
Sleep (
)
8
7
Leisure & Study (
)
6
5
Household &
Family Care (
4
)
3
Personal Care
& Meals ( )
2
Travel (
1
0
0
)
1
2
3
4
Work time, h/cap/d
5
6
7
Share of GDP dedicated to travel, %
Determinants of Travel Demand: TMB
25
Data Points:
U.S. (1909, 1914, 1919, 1924, 1929, 1950 - 2005)
Japan (1963 - 2005)
France (1959, 1962-2005)
Germany (1970-2004)
Italy (1963 - 2005)
UK (1963-2005)
Bulgaria (1997 - 2005)
Hungary (1994, 1996 - 2005)
20
15
1
2
3
4
Poland (1995, 2000 - 2005)
Romania (2000 - 2005)
Western Europe (1973 - 2005)
Eastern Europe (2000 - 2005)
Sri Lanka (2002)
Turkey (1994)
South Africa (2000)
Mexico (2000)
10
4
2
3
5
1
0
0
100
400
200
300
500
600
Motorization level, LDV/1000 capita
700
800
Determinants of Travel Demand: Travel Costs
Travel Costs to consumer, $(2000)/pkm
0.25
United States
0.20
Aircraft
Light-duty vehicles
0.15
All modes
0.10
Low-speed public transport
0.05
0
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
Growth in Global Mobility (1950-2005)
1,000,000
Sub-Saharan Africa
Latin America
Middle East & North Africa
Other Pacific Asia
North America
100,000
Pacific OECD
PKT/cap
Western Europe
Eastern Europe
Former Soviet Union
South Asia
10,000
Centrally Planned Asia
World
1,000
100
100
1,000
10,000
GDP/cap, US$(2000)
100,000
1,000,000
High-speed modes, %PKT
Light-duty vehicles, %PKT
Low-speed public transport, %PKT
Shift from Slow to Fast (1950-2005)
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
100
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
100
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
100
1,000
10,000
PKT/cap
100,000
1,000,000
Industrialized Regions:
North America
Pacific OECD
Western Europe
Reforming Economies:
Eastern Europe
Former Soviet Union
Developing Regions:
Centrally Planned Asia
Latin Ameria
Middle East & North Africa
Other Pacific Asia
South Asia
Sub-Saharan Africa
1,000
10,000
PKT/cap
100,000
1,000,000
1,000
10,000
PKT/cap
100,000
1,000,000
Shift from Slow to Fast (1950-2050)
(Travel Time Budget = 1.2 h/cap/d)
100
Industrialized
Regions
195020052050
Developing
Reforming
Regions
Economies
195020052050 195020052050
World
195020052050
60
40
20
SR
E
EP S-B
PA 1
-R
ef
SR
E
EP S-B
PA 1
-R
ef
SR
E
EP S-B
PA 1
-R
ef
0
High-Speed Transportation
Low-Speed Public Transport
Light-Duty Vehicles
SR
E
EP S-B
PA 1
-R
ef
Mode Share, % PKT
80
Trends in Consumer Behavior toward ...
• higher travel demand (PKT)
• larger and more powerful vehicles (higher
E/PKT)
• declining price elasticity of travel due to
– Increasing dependence on automobiles and
high-speed transportation
– Rising income, lack of large-scale substitutes
for oil products
Po
we
r,
kW
Si
ze
,L
Fu
el
Co
l/1 nsu
00 m
km pti
on
,
En
gi
ne
En
gi
ne
we
ig
ht
,k
g
% Change in Vehicle Attributes
1983 Camry
Cu
rb
Example for higher E/PKT:
Upgrades of Toyota Camry
80
70
60
2007 Camry
50
40
30
20
10
0
E/PKT: Trends in Energy Intensity
4.0
Energy Intensity, MJ/pkm
3.5
3.0
Shift toward more powerful vehicles
Structural changes in auto travel
Higher frequency air services
Flattening stage length distribution
Others
US
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
Great Britain
Germany
France
Switzerland
Japan
Penetration of BATs in aviation
Rising PAX load factors
Others
0.5
0.0
1950 1960
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
2050
Opportunities for Reducing E/PKT …
Road Vehicles:
E
VKT
=
1
ηPropulsion System
(A + D + R)
Q SFC
PAX V (L/D)
WF
W0
ln
W0-WF
Jet Aircraft:
E
PKT
=
… and Constraints
• Engineering trade-offs
– Occupant safety vs. automobile weight, etc.
– Larger aircraft wingspan (to increase L/D) vs. increase in
aircraft weight, etc.
• Consumer acceptance
– Battery-electric vehicles vs. range, etc.
– Turboprop aircraft engines vs. passenger comfort, etc.
• Development costs of new (road and air) vehicles
several billion dollars → existing, proven designs
– Evolutionary process implies that many fuel-saving
technologies have long history
Time Constants: Technology
95 years
Racing version of the front wheel driven, petrol-electric
Lohner "Porsche“ in 1900.
http://www.hybrid-vehicle.org/hybrid-vehicle-porsche.html
73 years
100+
years?
Hugo Junkers' 1924 design for a giant flying wing. The wing
was to accommodate 26 cabins for 100 passengers, carry a
crew of 10, and have enough fuel for 10 hours of flight.
http://www.century-of-flight.net/Aviation%20history/flying%20wings/Early%20Flying%20Wings.htm
Time Constants: Technology, contd.
U.S. Automobiles
World Aircraft
100
100
90
90
MY 2000
MY 1990
80
MY 1990
% Aircraft Still In Fleet
% Vehicle Still In Fleet
80
70
60
50
40
30
MY 1966
20
70
60
MY 1980
50
40
30
MY 1970
20
10
MY 1960
10
0
0
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Vehicle Age, years
Source: Transportation Energy Databook, Editions 13, 20
0
10
20
30
Aircraft Age, years
Source: Morrell P., L. Dray, 2009
40
50
60
Opportunities for Reducing E/PKT: Summary
(while maintaining current performance characteristics!)
• By mid’ 2020s
E/PKT reduction potential ≈ 30-50%
(for the average new LDV or aircraft
in early 2000)
• By midcentury
Natural fleet turnover would translate
these reductions to the vehicle fleet
Automobile Cost Curve: U.S.
Retail Price Increase,$(2000)
6000
5000
Hybrid
4000
3000
Alum
2000
1000
PowTrn2
ZeroCost
BLV
PowTrn1
LowCost
0
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Fuel Consumption, L/100km
8
9
10
95Fleet
11
Introduction of Technology (U.S.)
Gaseoline Retail Price, US$/L
Reference Case
Kyoto+ Case
Kyoto Case
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0
25
Energy Use, EJ
20
Light-duty vehicles
Light-duty vehicles
15
All other modes
10
Light-duty vehicles
All other modes
All other modes
5
MARKAL
EPPA
MARKAL
EPPA
MARKAL
EPPA
0
5.0
Passenger-km, trillion
4.5
3.5
3.0
Reference case automobile pkm
Reference case automobile pkm
Total fleet
4.0
Demand
95 Flt
Loss
95 Flt
Demand loss
Total fleet
Total fleet
95 Flt
2.5
PowTrn1
2.0
1.5
1.0
LoCost
ZeroCost
LoCost
0.5
0
1995 2000
PowTrn2
PowTrn1
ZeroCost
ZeroCost
2005 2010
2015
2020 2025
2030
1995 2000
2005 2010
2015
2020
2025 2030
1995 2000
2005 2010
→ Importance of incremental improvements
Alum
2015 2020
2025
2030
Opportunities: Alternative Fuels
•
•
•
•
•
Weight/volume characteristics
Compatibility to existing fuel infrastructure
Convenience of fuel handling / storage
Fuel costs / volatility
Energy independence / security of supply / location
and size of resources
• Environmental impact (→ Lifecycle analysis)
Transport System Scale
No. additional 1GWel nuclear reactors to satisfy 2005 US LDV energy demand
via water electrolysis-based H2
Technical Potential for Reducing GHG Emissions
Lifecycle GHG emissions,
MtCO2-eq
30,000
Constant
Technology
World
25,000
Maximum
Technology
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
Lifecycle GHG emissions,
MtCO2-eq
5,000
Fuel & vehicle cycle
High-speed transport
Low-speed public transport
Light-duty vehicles
United States
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
EPPARef
1950
2005
SRESB1
EPPARef
2050
SRESB1
What does this mean?
• Large technology opportunities
• Challenges (consumer behavior, costs for low-GHG
emission technology, transport system scale, time
constants, others)
• Policy measures to rebalance consumer preferences
(market-based measures, regulatory measures,
R&D)
• Travel demand continues to grow, also in a climateconstrained world
The Choices Ahead
• Government
– Type of policy measure to change consumer and
industry choice of new vehicle attributes (market-based
/ regulation / both)
– Single policy approach vs. some portfolio of measures
– Economy wide vs. passenger transport only
– R&D investments
• Industry action depends upon government policy,
BUT …
– GHG emission problem will not fade away (see
structural change in energy use)
– R&D investments (also) into reducing fuel consumption
• Satisfies climate change and oil dependence
• Importance of improving mainstream technology
• And GHG mitigation ultimately depends on us!
www.TransportAndClimate.com