Problem Set 7 Portfolio Insurance Problem 1 How many “shares” will you have in the revised portfolio, and how many puts? • NS + NP = 21,000(1224.36) • N(1224.36) + N(32.70) = 21000(1224.36) • N(1224.36+ 32.70) = 21000(1224.36) • N(1257.06) = 25,711,560 • N = 20,453.7254 1 Problem 1 What is the value of the revised stock portfolio combined with this insurance? • NS + NP = N(1224.36) + N(32.70) = 1257.06 * N • = $25,711,560 Problem 2 • Value of the insured portfolio = (1201.25 * N) + [(1210 – 1201.25) * N] • Value of the insured portfolio = 1210 * N = $24,749,008 (rounded to nearest dollar). • This is the minimum value of the insured portfolio, no matter how far the value of equity might drop. 2 Problem 2 • Without portfolio insurance, the value of the uninsured portfolio would have been $1201.25 * 21000 = $25,226,250. Only if the equity fell below the breakeven would the insured portfolio outperform the uninsured portfolio. • The breakeven point would be 24,749,008/21000 = 1178.52 Problem 3 • Puts would expire worthless, so value of the insured portfolio = 1234.36 * N =$25,247,260 (rounded to nearest dollar) • Without portfolio insurance, the value of the uninsured portfolio would have been$1234.36 * 21000 = $25,921,560 3 Problem 3 • The cost of insurance is the difference between the outcomes; in this case, $25,921,560 – $25,247,260 = $674,300 (or about 2.6% of the original portfolio value. • Upside capture is 100% – 2.6% = 97.4% Problem 4 • Nnew = Nold S / ∂1 S + (1– ∂2)B(X,t) • Nnew = (21000 * 1224.36)/ [ (.5933 * 1224.36) + (1– .5592)*1204.05] • Nnew= 20,453.71 4 Problem 4 • Number of equity shares = ∂1 * Nnew • Number of equity shares = .5933 * 20453.71 • Number of equity shares = 12,134.58 Problem 4 • Number of bonds = (1–∂2) * Nnew • Number of bonds = (1 – .5592) * 20453.71 • Number of bonds = 9014.98 5 Problem 4 • Value of insured portfolio = (12134.58 * $1224.36) + (9014.98 * $(1204.05) • Value of insured portfolio = $25,711,560 (again, recall that the result given by the options calculator is more precise than you would get by just running the rounded intermediate values through a handheld calculator). Problem 5 • ∂C/ ∂S S/(S+P) = .5933 * 1224.36/(1224.36+32.70) = .5778 • (again, recall that the result given by the options calculator is more precise than you would get by just running the rounded intermediate values through a handheld calculator). 6 Problem 6 Nf = Nold {[∂C/ ∂S S/(S+P)]–1} e–(r–d)t Nf = 21000 * [ (0.5778–1) e–(.05–.03)(90/365) ] Nf = –8822.58 Number of contracts = –8822.58 /250 = –35.29 • The futures price in the contract would be $1224.36 e(.05–.03)t =$1230.41 • • • • Problem 7 • For the portfolio in problem 1, the value of the put would become $32.30 and the new value of the insured portfolio would be ($32.30 + $1225.36) * N = $25,723,732 (rounded to nearest dollar). This is a gain of about $12,172. 7 Problem 7 • For the portfolio in problem 6, the change in futures price would be ($1225.36 –$1224.36) e.05–.03)t = $1.0049 per share of the futures contract. • So, you would lose $8866.20 on the futures contracts and make $21,000 on the stock, netting a gain of $12,133.80 Problem 7 • Thus the outcomes from the two strategies are close, assuming you can buy fractional futures contracts. Without fractional contracts, you might have chosen to sell 35 contracts (with the multiplier of 250, this represents 8750 shares). 8 Problem 7 • Then the futures contracts would lose $8793 on the futures contracts and make $21,000 on the stock, netting a gain of $12,207. So, the lack of fractional shares makes a relatively small difference in this case (the difference between fractional contracts and whole numbers is about 0.6% in this case). Problem 8 • Forward price = $43.75 e0.0375*(270/365) = $44.98 9 Problem 9 • The puts and calls are each worth $2.70 per share, so at the risk-free rate the face value of the “loan” would be • $2.70 e0.0375*(270/365) = $2.7759 per share (call it $2.78) Problem 10 • Payoff per share = $46.50 – $44.98 – $2.78 = –$1.26 • If the stock price at expiration is $42.50, the option expires out of the money. Then the payoff per share = – $2.78 • Breakeven point is $44.98 + $2.78 = $47.76 10 Problem 11 • Oaon = S0 N(d1) = .5564 * 65 = $36.17 • If the stock price is above $65 at expiration, the holder of the option would receive the underlying stock • If the stock price is $65 or lower at expiration, the option-holder would receive nothing Problem 12 • Ocon = e –rt N(d2) = (64.47/65) * .5242 = 52¢ • If the stock price is above $65 at expiration, the holder of the option would receive one dollar • If the stock price is $65 or lower at expiration, the option-holder would receive nothing 11 Problem 13 • C(S,X,t) = Oaon – XOcon = $36.17 – ($65 * .52) = $2.37 Problem 14 • Chooser = Call(S,65,60/365) + P(S,65e –.05(30/365) , 30/365) = $2.37 + $1.23 = $3.60 12 Problem 15 • Ccp = $2.37/0.52 = $4.56 Problems 16-22 • For class discussion 13 Put-Call Parity: Another Look C(S,X,t) + B(X,t) = S + P(S,X,t) C(S,X,t) – P(S,X,t) = S – B(X,t) C(S,X,t) – P(S,X,t) = F(X,t) F(X,t) = 0 if X = Se(R-d)t 14 S C P X C P R C P t C P C P Call Keys for using OPT as an analytical tool C(S,X,t) = S - B(X,t) + P(S,X,t) B(X,t) Stock Building Black-Scholes • C(S,X.t) = S*N(d1) – e-Rt X*N(d2) Start with the “moneyness ratio” S Xe Rt “At the money” = 1 “In the money” > 1 “Out of the money” < 1 15 Building Black-Scholes • C(S,X.t) = S*N(d1) – e-Rt X*N(d2) Consider the log of the “moneyness ratio” S ln Rt Xe “At the money” = 0 “In the money” > 0 “Out of the money” < 0 Building Black-Scholes • C(S,X.t) = S*N(d1) – e-Rt X*N(d2) S ln Rt Xe 1 d1 t 2 t S ln Rt Xe 1 d2 t 2 t 16 Building Black-Scholes • C(S,X.t) = S*N(d1) – e-(R-d)t X*N(d2) When the option is “at the money” and the “moneyness ratio” is 1, the calculation is greatly simplified, because ln (1) is zero. This is the “golden point” where the put and call have the same value. Then d1 1 t 2 d2 1 t 2 Digital Options Break a Call in Two • Digital options, sometimes called binary options, are of two types: – Asset-or-nothing options • pay the holder the asset if the option expires in the money and nothing otherwise. – Cash-or-nothing options • pay the holder a fixed amount of cash (usually $1) if the option expires in the money and nothing otherwise 17 Decomposition of a European Call • A balanced portfolio of long asset-ornothing options and short cash-or-nothing options is equivalent to a European Call – Oaon = S0 N(d1) – Ocon = e–Rt N(d2) • So, C(S,X,t) = Oaon – XOcon Synthetic Options • Portfolio Insurance 18