Future ATM Concepts & Technology
R. John Hansman
Director MIT International Center for Air
Transportation
rjhans@mit.edu
Future = Post NextGen &
SESAR Initial Implementation
Simple Feedback Model of System
Adaptation
Predictive, Reactive, Catalytic Transitions
Disturbances
Demand
Performance
Aggregate
Inefficiency
Metrics
System
Capability
Monitoring &
Forecasting
Implementation
Change
Process
Selected
Actions
Precipitating
Change
Event or
Condition
Corrective
Actions
Transformative
Actions
Media
Stakeholder
Awarness
Aviation Community Loop
Public Pressure Loop
Public
Awareness
Catalytic Example
MH370 - Global Aircraft Tracking
 ICAO Proposal for 15 min reporting in remote areas and ICAO
Global Aeronautical Distress and Safety System (GADSS)
 Technology Independent
 Multiple Potential Technologies
 Existing FANS 1A CPDLC Packages
 Satellite ACARS
 Satellite Based ADS-B (Inmarrsat/NavCanada)
 Satellite Orbit Configurations
 Geocentric (Inmarrsat)
 High orbit, broad coverage per sat, issue at high latitudes
 Polar (Iridium)
 Low orbit, limited coverage per sat, good high latitude coverage
 Operational Benefits Unclear
 Potential to leverage tracking for ATM Benefits
Emergent Drivers for ATM
Modernization
 Demand
 Economic Growth
 Access to Air Transportation
 Safety
 Catalytic Events (Grand Canyon, Los Ceritos, MH370)
 Capacity
 Delays
Disturbances
Performance
# Operations
Throughput
RPM, RTM
Flight Hours
# Airports
Demand
 Cost
Aggregate
Inefficiency
Metrics
Safety & Capacity
Drivers
System Capability
 Fuel Efficiency
 Environmental Impact
Implementation
Monitoring &
Forecasting
Change
Process
Corrective
Actions
Selected Actions
Stakeholder
Awarness
Aviation Community Loop
Revenue Passenger Kilometers (RPK)
by World Region
NextGen Origin
Data source: ICAO/IATA
Flight Delay Trends
US Data
NextGen Origin
Data source: FAA Operational Network (OPSNET) (data through Jan‘14)
Consumer Complaints
from 1998 to 2011
NextGen Origin
Data source: DOT Aviation Consumer Protection Division (Data through Jun-11)
Crude Oil and Jet Fuel Price
Trends
NextGen Origin
Data sources: EIA Independent Statistics & Analysis (Data through December 2014)
Additional Drivers for Modernization:
Environmental Concerns
Noise
Emissions
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
Stage 4 (Equipment)
Airports (Capacity)
Costs
FAA Ops Cost/ARTCC Ops
260
240
Then Year Dollars
220
200
180
160
140
120
100
2002
2003
2004
Data source: FAA Budget and Administrators Fact Book
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Future = Post NextGen &
SESAR Initial Implementation
Future Technologies
 After the NextGen/SESAR investment there will be limited
interest in another round of air/ground technology investment
 We will be constrained by the performance levels incorporated in the
Standards and equipment defined by NextGen/SESAR
 Most technological changes will come from exogenous
technical development
 Cloud based systems
 Wireless systems
 Optimization
NextGen-SESAR
CNS Technologies
Performance Based Navigation
RNAV and RNP
>90% air carrier fleet
>30% air carrier fleet
ADS-B (1 sec update)
Global Navigation
Satellite System
Radar Tracks
Other Aircraft
Aircraft
Cockpit
Coverage Volume
Cockpit-Based
Applications
Air Vehicle
Component
Avionics
Integration
Air to Air
ADS-B Out
Position & intent
broadcast from
aircraft to ground or
other aircraft
ADS-B In
Cockpit
Information
transmitted from
ground to the
aircraft
Air to Ground
•Self-separation
•Equivalent VFR operations
•Traffic & runway awareness
•Airspace, weather, terrain
awareness
•Precision Navigation
ATC
Operating
Procedures
ATC-Based Applications
Ground
Component
ATC
Integration
•Surveillance
•Separation procedures
•Trajectory-based operations
Air
Traffic
Control
Satellite Based ADS-B
North Atlantic Application
Source: NavCanada
ADS-B Iridium Orbital
Constellation
Source: NavCanada
System Wide Information
Management
Source: FAA
Voice Datalink Mode 2
VHF Network
Source: SITA
NextGen User Benefits Dependent Upon
Approved Applications and Operational
Capabilities
Capabilities
Applications
Stakeholder Benefits
stk1
stk2
stk3
b1(t)
b2(t)
Aircraft
Operational
Capability
Level of
Benefit/Cost
b3(t)
Application 1
Operational
Procedures
Significant
benefits
Application 2
Some/Indirect
….
ATC
Operational
Capability
Application x
stk1
stk2
c1(t)
c2(t)
 ADS-B as NextGen Pathfinder
 Airborne Equipage Requirement
 Certification and Procedures
c3(t)
costs
Disaggregate benefit/cost approach adapted from Marias and Weigel
stk3
None/
Insignificant
Importance of NextGen
Procedure Development
 Operating Procedures are the
critical element in the integration
triad
 If procedures are not updated to
reflect that NextGen capabilities
then there there is limited benefit
and limited stakeholder buy-in
 NextGen and SESAR will provide the
technical infrastructure. Need to
develop processes to approve
innovative operational procedures.
Aircraft
Ground
Capability
Infrastructure
Operational
Procedures
Feedback Model of System Transition
System
Behavior
Demand
Catalytic
Event
System
Capability
Implementation
Process
Safety and Environmental
Approval Processes
Solution
Refinement Loop
Awareness Building
Process
Stakeholder
Awareness
Capability
Options
Public
Awareness
Change Process
Selected
Actions
Collective
Decision Making
Transition Model : Alexandra Mozdznowska
Negotiation
Loop
Stakeholder
Preferences
Objective
Formation
Stakeholder
Values, Context
Safety Management System
(SMS)Classification of Severity &
Likelihood
Extremely Remote =
(quantitative) 1x10-7
to 1x10-9
Hazardous =
“Serious or
fatal injury to
small number
of occupants
or cabin
crew”
 Target risk classified by ATO Safety Management System
standards
 Hazardous assumption & 10-7 assumption
 Risk also compared to ground fatality risk from commercial
aviation
 Frequency approximately 1x10-7 fatalities/hr due to Part 91 ops
RNAV application at Boston Logan
R22R Departures
RNAV - 2012
Pre-RNAV
RNAV - 2014
Source: Massport
SESAR Essential
Operational
Changes
Future Concepts
 Absent catalytic events the system will change by evolution and
adaptation
 Adapt to NextGen/SESAR technologies
 Strong NextGen/SESAR concepts will survive if they can be made
operational
 System will adapt to emerging drivers
 Point capacity limits
 Environmental drivers (Noise, GHG)
 Cost will emerge as key driver
 Concept Types
 Evolutionary (e.g. Optimization and Refinement)
 Obvious but Politically Difficult (e.g. Dynamic Facility Consolidation)
 High Payoff, Out There (e.g. Formation Ops)
Meta Optimization
 CDM-2 Evolution of CDM at both Tactical and Strategic level
 Enabled by




SWIM
Data Mining,
New Optimization Approaches
Communication Systems and Cloud
 Increase Capacity and Improve Operational Efficiency
 ATM Service Providers





Realtime and predictive capacities
Smoothed matched demand
Dynamic Airspace Reallocation
Stochastic vs.. Deterministic Approaches
Predictability and Robustness
 Airlines
 Increased predictability and efficiency
 Requires real time optimization and internal prioritization
Speed Optimization Example
Max Range Cruise (MRC):
Dynamic Facility
Consolidation
 Obvious but Politically Difficulty
 Cost, Efficiency and Robustness Opportunity
 Technically Feasible
ZSE
ZMP
ZLC
ZBW
ZAU
ZOB
ZDV
ZOA
ZKC
ZNY
ZID
ZDC
ZME
ZLA
ZAB
ZTL
ZFW
ZJX
ZHU
ZMA
TRACONS
Out There Concepts
 Enabling Advanced Formation Operations
 Enroute
 Fuel Efficiency, Reduced Costs/Labor
 Terminal
 Runway Throughput
 Need to work formation issues
 Need to work failure cases
 ADS-B performance standards not sufficient
 DO 260B
Formation Approaches
Lateral vs. Longitudinal Wake Vortex Separation
28L
28R

Limited Reduction Possible in Longitudinal Separation due to Vortex Dynamics

20-30 % Throughput Improvement

Lateral Position of Wake well known close to aircraft

Close Dependent Parallel Approaches or Formation Approaches enabled by accurate
guidance technologies

100 - 200% Throughput Improvement
Comments?