NextGen Modeling
in NASPAC
Presented to: NAS-Wide Simulation Workshop
By: Kimberly Noonan, FAA NextGen and Ops Planning
Date: January 28, 2010
Federal Aviation
Administration
Modernized NASPAC Environment
Preprocessor
Future
Schedule
Generato
r
Industry/
Regulatory
Response
(Demand)
Output
Parser
Itinerary
Generation
Fleet
Evolution
Trajectory
Module
Sector
Crossings
GDP
Generator
Core
Queuing
Model
Output
Parser
Preprocessor (Capacity)
Capacity
Scheduler
NextGen Modeling in NASPAC
28 January 2010
Federal Aviation
Administration
2
Modernized NASPAC Environment
Delay Wx
TAF
ETMS
Fuel Burn Rate
Future
Schedule
Generator
Unconstrained
Traj.-Based
Forecast (2D)
Industry/
Regulatory
Response
Unsatisfied
Demand
Constrained
Traj.-Based
Forecast (2D)
Itinerary
Generation
Δ Fuel
Burn
Flow Restriction
Defns & Caps
4D
Trajectories
Fleet
Evolution
Trajectory
Module
Fleet
Forecast
Wind
Field
Sector
Crossings
Flight Table
Output
Parser
Airport Table
Sector Table
Sector
Geometries
Flight
Delays
Time dependent
Airport Capacities
Pareto Curves
Wx = weather
Wx
TAF = Terminal Area Forecast
MAP Values
MAP = Monitor Alert Parameter
ETMS = Enhanced Traffic Management System
NextGen Modeling in NASPAC
28 January 2010
GDP
Generator
Core
Queuing
Model
Capacity
Scheduler
Time dependent
Sector Capacities
Federal Aviation
Administration
3
Airport Capacity Scheduler
• Modeling airport capacity
140
– Previously
120
Arrlivals (/hr)
100
• Used ceiling and visibility to
determine VMC, MMC, and IMC
conditions and apply associated
capacity curve
VMC
MMC
IMC
80
60
40
20
0
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Departures (/hr)
– Now
– Configuration specific
– Wake Turbulence Mitigation for
Departures (WTMD)
NextGen Modeling in NASPAC
28 January 2010
45
40
35
30
25
Arrivals per Hour
• Considers wind speed, wind
direction, and time of day
• Use special condition curves
50
20
15
10
5
0
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
140.0
Departures per Hour
Federal Aviation
Administration
4
Ground Delay Program (GDP)
Generator
•
Previously
– No GDP module
•
Now
– GDP generator identifies GDPs and assigns expected departure clearance times
• Given flight times and weather dependent airport capacities
• Flights assigned arrival slot based on priority
– Distance based tiers
– International flights exempt
– Airport specific GDP triggers
• Max flight delay
• Max queue length
•
Next
– Airline response and cancellation module
– Probabilistic GDP triggers
– Probabilistic weather forecast
NextGen Modeling in NASPAC
28 January 2010
Federal Aviation
Administration
5
Performance Based Navigation (PBN)
• Model Q-Routes
– Previously
• No special treatment
Chicago
– Now
• Allow equipped flights,
between certain city pairs to
fly special routes
• Impose aircraft separation
standards using restrictions
NextGen Modeling in NASPAC
28 January 2010
NY
Denver
No.
Calif.
DC
Las
Vegas
So.
Calif.
Phoenix
No.
TX
ATL,
CLT
Houston
2013
Corridor 3
2014
Corridor 2
2015
Corridor 1
2016
Corridor 4
2017
Corridor 5
So.
FL
Federal Aviation
Administration
6
Oceanic Separation
ZOA
• Previously
– Flights flew unconstrained
in oceanic airspace
• Now
– Oceanic separation
standards imposed using
static restrictions
– Considers lead/following
aircraft type/equipage to
determine separation
• Next
– Incorporate altitude
restrictions
– Oceanic in-trail climb and
descent
NextGen Modeling in NASPAC
28 January 2010
Area/Track System
CEP/PACOTS NOPAC
WATRS
NAT MNPS
Minimum Track Spacing
50 NM
50 NM
50 NM
53 – 60 NM
Lateral Separation
50 NM
50 NM
N/A
RNP10/RNP4, 50 NM
HF Voice
30 NM
50 NM
50 NM
N/A
RNP 4,
HF Voice,
ADS-C,
CPDLC
N/A
N/A
60 NM
60 NM
NAT MNPS
authorized
100 NM
100 NM
90 NM
90 NM
Others
Longitudinal Separation
50 NM
50 NM
10 minutes, 10 minutes,
RNP10,
mach
mach assigned
HF Voice,
assigned
ADS-C,
CPDLC
30 NM
50 NM
10 minutes, 10 minutes,
RNP 4,
mach
mach assigned
HF Voice,
assigned
ADS-C,
CPDLC
10 minutes
10 minutes test 15 minutes
15 minutes
Others
Vertical Separation
1000 feet
Up to FL 280
1000 feet between RVSM authorized aircraft
FL 290 - 410
2000 feet if both passing aircraft not RVSM authorized
FL 420 and
2000 feet
Above
Equipage
Federal Aviation
Administration
7
SIDs and STARs
• Standard Terminal Arrival Routes
(STARs)
– Previously
• All flights had continuous descent arrivals
• Estimated time/fuel inefficiencies by
historical data analysis
– Now
• Assign each flight to a STAR
– based on route and equipage
• Define more detailed 4-D trajectory
– with altitude restrictions
• Standard Instrument Departures
(SIDs)
– Similar technique implemented
NextGen Modeling in NASPAC
28 January 2010
Federal Aviation
Administration
8
Equipage Evolution
• Previously
100%
80%
RNP - 0.3
40%
RNP - 0.3 with RF
RNP AR
20%
0%
– Evolve future fleet equipment to
meet forecast
– Equipment categories include
• Datacomm
• ADS-B In and Out
• PBN: RNAV and RNP
RNAV - 1, RNAV - 2
60%
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
• Soon
Major Airlines Forecast Scenarios
Notional
PBN Forecast
PBN Equipped Capability
Aircraft with Equipped
Capability (%)
– Baseline equipment data used
throughout forecast
Calendar Year
Air Transport
ADS-B Equipage
Notional ADS-B
Forecast
100%
90%
80%
70%
Scen A: ADS-B Out&In
Scen B: ADS-B Out
Scen B: ADS-B In
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
2035
2034
2033
2032
2031
2030
2029
2028
2027
2026
2025
2024
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
0%
Year End
NextGen Modeling in NASPAC
28 January 2010
Federal Aviation
Administration
9
Next Steps
• Incorporate Traffic Flow Management (TFM)
– Airspace Flow Programs
• Improve Terminal Approach Control (TRACON)
– Update and automate arrival fix and departure fix flows
– Incorporate fix balancing
• Improve local and en-route weather effects
– Model severe IMC conditions
• Incorporate dynamic events
– Dynamic rerouting, dynamic sectorization
• Include Monte Carlo simulation capability
– Re-factored source code
• Validation, validation, validation
NextGen Modeling in NASPAC
28 January 2010
Federal Aviation
Administration
10
Questions?
NextGen Modeling in NASPAC
28 January 2010
Federal Aviation
Administration
11