Passenger Trip Delays: 2007 Statistics Lance Sherry (Ph.D.) Guillermo Calderon­Meza (Ph.D. Candidate) Melanie Larson (M.Sc. Candidate) Danyi Wang (Ph.D.)
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1 Acknowledgements • Joe Post, Dan Murphy, Dave Knorr, Anne Suissa (FAA – ATO­P) • Ved Sud, Jim Weatherly (FAA Sys­Ops) • Maria Consiglio, Brian Baxley, Kurt Nietsche, Todd Farley, Karlin Roth , Harry Swenson (NASA) • John Shortle, Rajesh Ganesan, Bengi Manley (GMU) • Airlines and Airports
2 2 Transportation Metrics • Raison d’etre of the air transportation system is to haul passengers and cargo • Passenger Trip Delays should be the top level metric – Not flight delays • Bratu & Barnhart (2005) showed Flights delays =/= Passenger Delays
3 3 Flight Delay Trends, but What about Passengers? 100% 90% 80% 0.25% 0.28% 0.24% 0.17% 0.14% 0.18% 0.20% 0.21% 0.14% 0.21% 1.29% 1.69% 2.22% 1.53% 3.25% 2.07% 2.84% 3.31% 2.33% 3.49% 16.94% 15.35% 18.97% 20.27% 21.08% 21.06% 21.19% 21.22% 20.83% 24.51% 76.36% 75.04% 75.23% 75.71% 1998 1999 2000 2001 70% 60% 50% 40% 81.64% 82.41% 79.20% 77.33% 77.18% 2004 2005 2006 72.45% 30% 20% 10% 0% 2002 On­Time 2003 Delayed Cx 2007 Div
4 4 Factors Contributing to Pax Flight Delays Passenger Trip Delay Cancelled Flight Overbooking • 50% Total Pax Trip Delay • < 1% • 2% of Pax, 2% of Flights • ~ 50% Mechanical/Aircraft Probs • ~ 50% Tactical Ops Diverted Flight Delayed Flights Lost Luggage • < 1% Total Pax Trip Delay • 50% Total Pax Trip Delay •24.5% of flights • < 1% Total Pax Trip Delay Load Factor Frequency
5 5 Pax Trip Delay Factors Origin Dest On­time Delayed
Origin Dest 1 1 15 min Pax On­Time 1 15 min Total Pax Delay1 = ( # Pax) x (Flight Delay1) 2 6 6 Pax Trip Delay Factors Dest Origin Diverted Cancelled or Overbooked
Dest Origin X 1 1 15 min 15 min 2 3 Total Pax Delay1 = ( # Pax) x (Flight Delay1 + TurnAround1­2+ Flight Time2) Total Pax Delay1 = ( # Pax2) x (Flight Arrival2) + (#Pax3) x (Flight Arrival3) Note: Same airline until 15 hours delay 3 4 7 7 Pax Trip Delay due to Cancelled Flights Dest Origin Additional Flights Required Each Day Additional Flights Required each Day to Deal with a Cancelled Flights as Load Factor Increases X
20 15 min Additional Flights = 0.0483e 5.8902(Load Factor) 15 R 2 = 0.9357 10 5 0 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 Load Factor 0.8 1 Total Pax Delay1 = ( # Pax2) x (Flight Arrival2) + (#Pax3) x (Flight Arrival3) 4 8 8 Data Source • Bureau of Transportation Statistics – Airline Data • ATOP, T­100, Secondary Sources • Secondary sources • Merge data­bases Joint DB
ATOP – Data integrity checks • Scope T­100 Other – 5224 routes between 309 airports 9 9 Algorithm For a given flight Y Flight Cancelled N
Passengers Bumped Cycle through next flights for same O/D pair re­ booking passengers, until all passengers re­booked. Max 15 hour delay. Adjust LF for Peak/Non­ peak Compute Pax Delay based on Scheduled arrival Time Flight Diverted Flight Delayed Estimate additional delays for Diverted Passengers Compute Pax Delay based on Scheduled arrival Time Compute Pax Delay based on LF and Flight Delay Lost Luggage Estimate Lost Luggage delays to Pax Pax Trip Delay 10 10 Passenger Tip Delays: 2007 Statistics (Jan – Oct)
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11 Number of Passengers x 1M Passenger Trip Experience 0.02% 600 500 1.8% 24.7% 400 300 200 73% 100 0 TOTAL PAX On­time Delayed Cancelled Diverted
12 12 Passenger Trip Delays (1000's of Hours) Passenger Trip Delays 0.02% Pax generate 8M, 3% 300,000 250,000 1.8% of Pax generate 110M Hrs, 45% 200,000 150,000 100,000 24.7% of Pax generate 125 M, 52% 50,000 0 0 TOTAL PAX On­time Delayed Cancelled Diverted
13 13 Passenger Trip Delay (Minutes)
Average Passenger Trip Delay by Category 664.4 700 600 500 360 400 300 200 100 0 55.8 0 On­time Delayed Cancelled Diverted 14 14 Passenger Equity: OEP­to­OEP OEP­to­Non­OEP Non­OPE­to­Non­OEP
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15 Number of Passengers
Number of Passengers on Each Type of Route 600,000,000 544M, 100% 500,000,000 400,000,000 300,000,000 267M, 49% 250M, 46% 200,000,000 100,000,000 27M, 5% 0 OEP/OEP OEP/non­OEP non­OEP/non­ OEP All 16 16 Passenger Trip Delays (1000 Mins)
Total Passenger Trip Delay by Route Type 300,000 243, 100% 250,000 200,000 150,000 126K, 52% 110K, 45% 100,000 50,000 7K, 2.8% 0 OEP/OEP OEP/non­OEP non­OEP/non­ Total X 1000 OEP Hours 17 17 Passenger Trip Delay (Minutes)
Average Passenger Trip Delay By Route Type (for all Passengers) 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 OEP/OEP OEP/non­OEP non­OEP/non­ OEP Total 18 18 Percentage Breakdown of Percentage of Passengers for each Passenger Experience on each Type of Route 1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 0.05 0.47 0.038 0.42 0.03 0.46 0.002 0.052 0.42 0.47 0.54 0.51 0.53 OEP/OEP OEP/non­OEP non­OEP/non­ OEP All Pax Constituents On­time Delayed Cancelled Diverted
19 19 Passenger Trip Delays (Minutes) Average Passenger Trip Delays by Category 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 On­time OEP/OEP Delayed Cancelled OEP/non­OEP Diverted non­OEP/non­OEP
20 20 Summary • Avg Passenger Trip Delays = Avg Flight Delays + 34 minutes • 95 th ­%tile Passenger Trip Delays = 95 th­ %tile Flight Delays + 150 minutes • Total Passenger Trip Delays generated by: • 52% flight delays • 45% cancelled flight delays • 3% diverted flight delays • non­OEP to non­OEP experience 2X better performance (avg delays)
21 21 Steps to Mitigate Pax Delays (1) • Honesty in advertising! Warning: the Secretary of the Department of Transportation (DOT) has determined that you are on a flight that has a high probability of a delay in excess of 45 minutes.
22 22 Steps to Mitigate Pax Delays (1) Warning: the Secretary of the Department of Transportation (DOT) has determined that you are on a flight that has a high probability of a delay in excess of 45 minutes. Warning: The Surgeon General has determined that Gambling is bad for your health.
23 23 Steps to Mitigate Pax Delays (2) • Passenger Bill of Rights – Emphasis on: • Cancelled Flights – Protect passengers against high load factors on subsequent flights • Diverted Flights • Overbooked Flights (already strong) • Lost Luggage – Less than half of cancelled flights can claim cause of weather
24 24 Steps to Mitigate Pax Delays (3) Give Passengers Information www.GreenFlights.INFO
25 25 Questions?
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